Iran and the EU's Agreement: An "Oil for Nukes" Program?

For many months now, the US State Department, the CIA, as well as other foreign intelligence services have been sounding the alarm that Iran has an undeclared nuclear weapons program.

In response the US has said it will not permit Iran to become a nuclear power.

The US wanted to take the issue to the UN Security Council which can authorize sanctions or an embargo on its oil exports. An embargo of oil will likely collapse the regime, given time. But time is not something the EU has, as it imports 8% of its oil from Iran and has only 90 days of oil reserves. The EU fears their economy will collapse before Iran's government falls.

Therefore, the EU sought to cut a deal with the Iranians to convince the US that Iran is not a threat. Years ago, Iran signed the Non Proliferation Treaty, in which they agreed not to pursue nuclear weapons technology. But Iran had recently been threatening to withdraw from the treaty.

Therefore, the EU sought to offer Iran greater economic ties in exchange for promises not to pursue a nuclear weapons program. The US encouraged their effort, but had little faith that the EU would be able to accomplish the deal.

Last week, diplomats from the EU worked feverishly to get an agreement prior to the November 25th meeting of the IAEA. They announced success. Before the ink was dry on their agreement, the Iranians began demanding exceptions.

The end result being that the EU agreed to softer agreement than the US had hoped for. The agreement would open greater trade between the EU and Iran, the EU would provide Iran with peaceful nuclear technology if Iran would stop its uranium enrichment program. But the agreement has no teeth as it is "a voluntary confidence building measure, not legal obligation.

This agreement was accepted by the IAEA. The Russian and Chinese applauded the agreement.

But immediately Iran declared that Iran will never indefinitely suspend their uranium enrichment program.

So Iran bought some time and it will likely leave the US to deal with Iran on its own. To be continued.

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