Syria's Road to Freedom

Amir Taheri, New York Post:

'LET'S do the Salsa!" is one of the refrains chanted by Lebanese demonstrators who have vowed to occupy the streets of Beirut until Syria ends its occupation of their country. But the Salsa they are referring to is not the Brazilian style of sexy dancing. It refers to the Syria Accountability and Lebanon Sovereignty (Restoration) Act (SALSA) — passed by Congress over a year ago, and seen as a signal that the Bush administration was determined to extend its quest for status quo change in the Middle East beyond Iraq into the Levant.

And Lebanon's Cedar Revolution — while far from complete — could, and must, become a prelude to the liberation of Syria from half a century of despotic rule. read more

There is as much pent-up energy for change in Syria as there is in Lebanon.

"We, too, want to do the SALSA," says a senior Syrian economist with years of experience at the World Bank. "The Assad regime is at an impasse, and, as the Lebanese revolution shows, our 'emperor' has no clothes."

Syrians watched with a mixture of awe and admiration as millions of Afghans and Iraqis queued up to vote in their first-ever free elections in recent months.

Meanwhile, a majority of the Palestinians have chosen electoral democracy as the way to statehood. More than a dozen Arab countries have held elections, though not as free as Iraq's. Even Saudi Arabia, the most conservative of Arab states, has accepted limited local elections, and will this week appoint 36 women to diplomatic posts for the first time.

The only two despotic regimes still in denial in the region are Syria and Iran. The Lebanese revolution could trigger the mechanisms that exist for change in Syria.

That change could come in two ways.

The first is through violence.

The Syrian regime is based on the Alawite community, some 11 percent of the population, and deeply resented by the Sunni Muslim majority. At a moment of desperation, that majority might try to use violence to assert its rights. This in turn could provoke a bloody repression.

The second way — the way to bring about change in Syria without massive bloodshed — requires a direct U.S. commitment with support from key Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Egypt.

An "Arab formula" is already under discussion to help the emergence of a transition government in Damascus with the aim of leading Syria to free, multiparty elections within a year or so. Such a government could be led by someone of stature within the regime who could be acceptable to the Sunni Muslim majority — perhaps Vice President Abdul-Halim Khaddam, who has close ties to both Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

For such a formula to succeed, the Bush administration should provide the big-power support needed to encourage advocates of change within the Syrian regime to make a move. The situation is too delicate to be left either to the United Nations or to the Europeans, whose natural instinct is to preserve the status quo with minor modifications.

President Bush should send a senior envoy to Beirut and Damascus as soon as possible. In Beirut, the envoy would assure the emerging democratic leadership of Washington's support. In Damascus, he would tell the Syrian leaders that the Middle East has to change, that the era of one-party rule based on an ideological cocktail of tyranny and anti-Americanism is over.

Assad's desperate attempt at forging an alliance with the mullahs of Tehran to stop the march of freedom in the Middle East can produce nothing but disaster for Syria. It is time for Syria to join the new emerging Arab mainstream and allow its people the right to choose their government as we saw in neighboring Iraq and shall soon see in Lebanon.

"We need direct communication with Washington," says a pro-reform member of the Syrian ruling elite. "The image of Syria as a bastion of anti-Americanism does not reflect the reality."

There are several prominent Americans, some of them of Syro-Lebanese origin, who could serve as Bush's special emissary to Beirut and Damascus at this time — such as John Sununu (Sr.), who served the first President Bush as White House chief of staff; former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, or former Secretary of State James Baker III.

Peaceful regime change is still possible in both Lebanon and Syria and the opportunity created by the Cedar Revolution must not be missed.

Veteran journalist Amir Taheri is a member of Benador Associates.