Today, the final day of the EU3/Iran negotiations – what will happen next?

Later today the EU3 will have to decide what to do with the Iranian proposal to maintain a small uranium enrichment program. What the EU3 decides will show with whom they have cast their lot.

So what will they choose to do? There are four likely scenarios.

One scenario is that Iran decides to give up its uranium enrichment program. They would only agree to this if they believe they can hide their program and thus buy time to produce the bomb in secret. This is very unlikely.

Another scenario is that the EU3 may refuse Iran's request to permit a smaller enrichment program. This would result in Iran leaving the negotiations and resuming its uranium enrichment program. This would lead to the EU3 forwarding the case to the UN Security Council. This would be the best scenario, but also unlikely given recent statements coming out of Europe.

Another scenario is that the EU3 will agree to Iran's proposal and thus lead to a major crisis in U.S. EU3 relations. This also is unlikely.

Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is that the EU3 will find a way to postpone the negotiations until after the Iranian Presidential elections, June 17. The EU3 have been promoting the idea that if former Iranian President Rafsanjani wins the election in Iran, he will be someone that they can negotiate with. This is a scenario that Rafsanjani would of course welcome.

This is a nightmare scenario for Iranians seeking real democracy in Iran. They have been hoping to take advantage of this unique opportunity to have the world’s attention on their June 17th Presidential election. They have been preparing to show the world that they consider the regime to be illegitimate, by refusing to participate in an election where the regime chooses the candidates. They have also been hoping for U.S. and international support like that which recently helped the people in the Ukraine and Lebanon replace their governments.

But a postponement of the negotiations would likely shift the focus of world attention on the June election from it’s legitimacy to whether the "pragmatic" Rafsanjani can become Iran's "legitimate" leader. This is the obvious choice the European press has been promoting and likely mirrors their government's position.

This would keep the EU3 from having to abandon its trade partner and cheap oil supplier. Instead of speaking of Iran's human rights violations, lack of a free press, and lack of real democracy in Iran, they can focus on the need for a Rafsanjani led Iran.
This is the most likely scenario. I hope I am wrong.

If this happens it will be a major setback for the people of Iran and the U.S. The best time to stage major demonstrations in Iran would be either around the election or a few weeks later on the “9th of Tir,” a date when many bloody anti regime demonstrations have occurred in the past. The hot summer months are the ideal time for such demonstrations. The winters in Tehran can be bitterly cold. If the people of Iran don’t receive the support they need this summer and they are once again brutally crushed by the regime, the opportunity to support a popular regime change in Iran may have passed. The U.S. may have little choice but to act militarily.

Let’s hope the EU3 doesn’t try to rescue the regime. We will know which option they chose very soon.