Kremlin Ready to Defend Iran

Mikhail Zygar, Dmitry Sidorov, Mos News:

Iranian Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh arrived in Moscow Monday. The main subject of his negotiations is the upcoming discussion of Iran’s nuclear program by the IAEA. Moscow has more or less decided to support Tehran during the decisive voting at IAEA in a week — support which could cause the Kremlin a lot of problems.

This is extremely important for the new Iranian authorities. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad swept to victory during July’s presidential elections in Iran. However, until now he has been a very obscure figure in the political arena. Tehran’s foreign partners have only been able to judge the character of the new Iranian head of state by his harsh statements and the make-up of his cabinet — conservative politicians, who support the active development of a nuclear program.

And only now, almost two months after the election, the world is finally introduced to the new Iranian leadership. On Monday Russian diplomats met the new Iranian vice president. On Wednesday, the new president of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will go to New York to participate in a session of the UN General Assembly.

The U.S. has a difficult relationship with Ahmadinejad — he is accused of participating in the taking of U.S. hostages at the U.S. embassy in Iran in 1979. However, the State Department granted him a U.S. visa to attend the summit of world leaders at the United Nations next week. Department of State Spokesman Sean McCormack said the decision was based on U.S. obligations as host country for the United Nations. Ahmadinejad will address the UN General Assembly to brief the world community on the Islamic republic’s new nuclear initiative. His itinerary does not include plans of direct negotiations with Western leaders; however, he made plans to meet with Vladimir Putin.

Finally, there is another element to the new Iranian leadership’s world presentation, and probably the most important one — the IAEA session. This session will be a serious trial for Tehran. The U.S. and EU will be insisting on transferring the Iranian case to the UN Security Council for consideration.

The future of the relationship between the West and Iran will depend a lot on the results of this visit. Some time ago Iranian authorities consciously moved to heighten tensions between Tehran and the United States, and to a lesser degree with the EU. The new Iranian leadership refused to follow the obligations that Tehran had undertaken earlier — to suspend the enrichment of uranium and to delay the restarting of work at the nuclear center in Isfahan, which was shut down a year ago.

By increasing the tensions, Iranian authorities are trying to achieve several goals. First of all, they think that by using harsh rhetoric, they can gain more leeway from the West. Secondly, increased international tensions help to improve the situation inside of Iran — the presence of a common enemy consolidates society. To successfully reach these goals there are two necessary conditions: Tehran hopes that its enemy will back off under the pressure, while it wants to have reliable allies like Russia and China, which can defend Iran from the Americans and Europeans. This week should show if the Iranian authorities have calculated everything correctly. READ MORE

Yesterday, Gholamreza Aghazadeh had negotiations with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, Alexander Rumyantsev, head of Rosatom, and Igor Ivanov, the secretary of the Security Council. Russia is one of Iran’s most important partners. At the end of next year Russian specialists should finish the construction of a nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Moreover, at the beginning of this year, the Iranian parliament approved a decision to announce an international tender for the construction of 20 more nuclear power plants over the next 20 years. Aghazadeh, the head of Iranian delegation to IAEA, was persistent yesterday in reminding Moscow about the profitability of close economic and political cooperation with Iran.

In recent days Russia has been showing clear support to Iran. Lavrov, for instance, said that Moscow does not see the necessity to pass the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council. However, during the course of yesterday’s negotiations Russia tried to persuade Iran not to continue building up tension, which could spoil the Kremlin’s relations with the West. Moscow tried to talk Iran into reconsidering the decision to launch Isfahan’s uranium enrichment process and return to moratorium status. Russian negotiators also tried to explain to the vice president the bad timing of the challenge to the U.S. in this volatile situation.

Russian authorities are relying on the fact that the world community will not want to punish Iran too severely and that the Europeans will not vote to transfer the dossier to the UN Security Council.

Ariel Cohen, an expert with the Heritage Foundation, who participated in a meeting with Putin, Ivanov and Lavrov in Moscow, told Kommersant that “on the Iran subject they were telling mutually exclusive things: from one side — the Russian position is close to the Europeans’, but from the other side — the Kremlin is against passing the dossier to the UN Security Council.”

According to Cohen’s opinion, “Russia does not want to spoil its relationship with Iran, because it sees Tehran as a member of a multi-polar coalition, which also includes China, and plays a role of the counter-balance for the U.S.”

Comparing the position of Moscow with the European “troika” point of view, Cohen thinks that they are totally opposite: “Once talking in Paris with consultants of the defense ministry of France, I understood that they hold an even tougher position on Iran that the USA. The French really want to see the Iranian dossier discussed in the UN Security Council.”

According to Heritage’s expert, such a harsh French stance towards Tehran can be explained by the ruined understanding of the development perspective of the Iranian military nuclear program, which was reached in negotiations with the European “troika”.

“Ex-president Khatami, and maybe even representatives of Rafsanjani (ex-president, and a candidate in recent presidential elections, who lost to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — Kommersant) promised to suspend their military nuclear program on the Japanese level,” Cohen said. Now that the new administration has rejected all the previous agreements, the Europeans feel cheated and eager to punish Iran.

In the meantime, while the representatives of the European powers ask the IAEA to support their demand about transferring the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council, Iran is using counter-propaganda. Before the IAEA session, high-ranking Iranian representatives made several simultaneous foreign trips. Currently they are trying to persuade as many countries as possible, which are represented in IAEA governing council, not to vote for the transfer of the Iranian case to the UN Security Council. However, analysts think that there are very few countries that have been persuaded. Brazil and Pakistan will definitely be voting for the Iranian position. It is possible that they will be joined by Malaysia and South Africa — they are part of the Non-Alliance Movement, which already officially announced its support to Iran. The position of India is unclear — it could support Tehran, but by doing so it will put itself in danger. Two months ago, New Delhi and Washington signed an agreement of nuclear cooperation, which is currently being ratified in Congress. If India votes the “wrong way”, then congress could kill the ratification process.

Finally, Tehran relies on Russian and Chinese support. During a conversation with Kommersant, Alexander Kamyzin, first deputy of the Russian mission at the UN, said that “Russia wants to see the resolution of the Iranian situation within the IAEA.” The diplomat stated that “Iran did not break any legal agreements.” However, he also said that “the refusal of Iran from its voluntary obligations is upsetting.”

In the meantime, a source in Russian diplomatic circles in New York openly stated to Kommersant that “Moscow is afraid of an escalation if the UN Security Council examines the Iranian problem.” According to the source’s opinion, “this issue is politically charged and can bring the situation to a dead end. It is necessary to wait until the Iranian president gives a speech in the UN, where he plans to present his proposals.”

Neither Kamyzin, nor Kommersant’s source in diplomatic circles in New York wanted to discuss how Russia would vote in the IAEA about transferring the Iranian case to the UN Security Council. However, even if Iran gets the support of Russia, China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Malaysia and South Africa, that would not resolve the issue. The governing body of the IAEA does not have a veto right and decisions are made by a simple majority. Seven votes for Iran might not be enough — there are 25 countries in the governing body of the IAEA. Most likely, a majority of them will vote against Iran together with the U.S. and the European “troika”. In this case, the UN Security Council, which would examine the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, can demand that Tehran stops uranium enrichment.

If Tehran lost in the IAEA, its position would be undermined. The countries supporting Iran will find themselves in a no less complicated situation. For instance, Russia might get involved in a conflict with the G8 countries in the year when it holds the chairmanship.