Sunday, December 18, 2005

What is behind Ahmadinejad’s anti-Israel remarks?

Mehran Riazaty: a former Iran analyst for the Central Command of the Coalition Forces in Baghdad in the office of Strategic Communication.
Ahmadinejad could not tie his shoe-laces without supports of powerful Ayatollahs such as Khamenei, Rafsanjani, Janati, Kashani, Mesbah Yazdi his mentor, and many others in Iran.

The main question is why Ahmadinejad made these comments? These comments are not definitely made by accident.

During Khatami’s presidency, Hassan Rohani, who used to be Iran’s Supreme National Security Chief, wrote a letter to him and explained Iran’s Political Strategy: Creating crisis, shifting crisis to opportunities then take advantage of these opportunities. It could be said that Khatami created the crisis and now Ahmadinejad shifting Khatami’s crisis to opportunities which soon Iranian Ayatollahs will take advantage of these opportunities.

How?

Khatami’s crisis was fire under the ashes. Despite the promises the Clinton administration had heard from Khatami’s informal interlocutors that the reformist understood the United States’ concerns about Iran’s nuclear program would work to accommodate us, Iran’s nuclear program had never slowed down. In fact, it had made tremendous progress. Ironically, Khatami’s accession had helped make that possible. When the reformists took over the government in 1997, Iran’s nuclear program was extensive and a priority for the regime, but it was horribly mismanaged. Led by the incompetent Reza Amrollahi and team chosen more for their revolutionary credential than their skills, the Iranian nuclear program had stumbled along despite the considerable resources lavished upon it. When Khatami took over, he replaced Amrollahi with the efficient Qolam-Reza Aqazadeh Khoi, who in turn replaced many personnel with true technical experts (Kenneth M. Pollack, the Persian Puzzle; pages 312, 362).

Now the fruit of Iran’s nuclear activities is ripe, somehow they have to reveal to the world that they are enriching uranium or they want to enrich uranium or even they have a nuclear bomb!

But how? Ahmadinejad makes strong anti-Israel remarks. Moderate political groups in Iran could not even say anything because Ahmadinejad’s words against Israel are merely a repetition of the wish of the founder of the Islamic Republic (i.e. Ayatollah Khomeini). The world get angry at Iran. Israel begins to think of attacking Iran. Iran will take advantage of Israel position, and tell international communities to defend its nation against Israel who has 200 nuclear warheads needs to advance its nuclear technology.