Moves Toward a Syrian Government in Exile

Claude Salhani, UPI:

Former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam is planning to form a government-in-exile, Kuwait's daily newspaper as-Seyassah reported Wednesday. The pro-government paper quoted unidentified sources close to Khaddam as saying he has started consulting with former Syrian military officers who had defected to "end the bad situation, of which (President Bashar) Assad is responsible."

According to the Kuwaiti paper, Khaddam would play a major leadership role in a transitional period in which "a democratic, pluralistic and modern system will be set up." READ MORE

Khaddam's defection followed by the accusation that the Damascus regime might have been implicated in the assassination of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, is the culmination of a five-year struggle between Khaddam and President Bashar Assad.

Khaddam's televised accusations made on an Arab satellite television channel can only mean that the former vice president has lost that power struggle which began soon after Bashar took over as president five years ago. Otherwise, Khaddam would still be in Damascus fighting the regime from within.

Khaddam is not alone in his struggle to unseat Bashar Assad. Among his allies is Ali Duba, a former head of the Military Intelligence services -- the much-dreaded Mukhabarat. Duba was pushed out by Hafez Assad years ago and now lives in London. United Press International has learned that Duba traveled to Paris to meet with Khaddam.

Khaddam, Duba and long-time serving army chief of staff Hikmat Shihabi are considering forming a government in exile with the aim of ousting President Bashar Assad and replacing him with Khaddam.

The former vice president had hoped to replace Hafez Assad upon his death in 2000 and became upset when the Baath Party gave the job to Bashar after amending the constitution.

Another high-ranking Syrian official who it is believed also opposed Bashar was Syrian Interior Minister Ghazi Kenaan. According to Syrian authorities Kenaan "committed suicide" last year. However several Syrian specialists believe Kenaan did not commit suicide, but was "suicided."

"Kenaan was a message," said one analyst. "It was a warning shot to everybody," said Joshua Landis, a professor at Oklahoma University who just returned from spending a year in Damascus.

The anti-Assad cabal comes with some very serious backing. Beside the three prominent exiled officials mentioned above, according to some well-informed sources the group also enjoys the support of several high-ranking officers in the Syrian military forces. For Khaddam and his group to be in any position to pose a real threat to the current regime they would need the support of some military units.

Another group firmly supporting Khaddam is the Islamists, who are fiercely anti-Bashar.

The rebels also are most likely to enjoy the financial backing of Saad Hariri, son of the slain billionaire Lebanese politician. Besides seeking revenge for his father's death, Saad will never feel safe enough to set foot back in Beirut so long as Bashar remains in power. Shortly after his father's death Saad left Beirut after receiving death threats. The younger Hariri has been jetting around the Middle East for the past seven months.

Yet Syria's history shows that successful coups need to be directed from inside the country and not remotely.

"People from the outside have never won a coup against the regime in Syria," Landis told UPI. "There is a very bad record of people trying to stimulate political change from the outside," added Landis, who also maintains SyriaComment.com, one of the most informative blogsites on Syria.

Once you are out of the country "it's very hard to make a comeback," Landis said. "Look at Salah al-Din Bitar and Michel Aflaq."

Bitar, along with Aflaq, were two of the three founders of the Syrian Baath Party. Bitar served as foreign minister from 1956-57, then as prime minister from 1963-66. Following a coup, Bitar fled to Beirut and was sentenced to death in absentia in 1969. A year later he was pardoned by Hafez Assad when the latter came to power. After a brief return to Damascus, Bitar got in a heated argument with Assad and went into exile in Paris.

Like Khaddam, Bitar chose Paris for his exile from where he continued to oppose the Syrian regime until he was assassinated in Paris in 1980. Syria was suspected of being responsible for his death, although it was never proven.

Aflaq, also fled Syria and lived the rest of his days in exile in Baghdad, where he died in 1989.

In essence what is happening in Syria today is a power play for the presidency. Although this is basically an internal struggle, its outcome could have wide-ranging repercussions on neighboring countries, including Lebanon, Israel, Iran and Jordan.

Landis however is not optimistic for the Paris-London based rebels. "It's a shot in the dark," he said.

Now that Bashar has managed to distance most of the Old Guard he could ask the Syrian people for another chance to prove himself. Bashar has the excuse that his hands were somewhat tied by the in-house fighting going on over the last five years.

But whether the Syrians will buy that story or prefer to have Bashar thrown out with the Baath remains to be seen. What also remains to be seen is what position Washington will adopt, if any.