Wednesday, November 10, 2004

Bush's Next Few Years - DoctorZin

A few thoughts on the next 4 years of the Bush administration.

WARGAMING IRAN Willian F Buckley, Yahoo News
"About Iran's intentions there is no disagreement. Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, and unless its policy is changed by the incentives it is offered or the warnings it receives, it will succeed."

Moreover, if we undertook preliminary military moves, what makes us certain that the Iranians would sit still for it? "'We never "red-celled" the enemy in this exercise' (that is, let him have the first move) (one participant warned). 'What if they try to pre-empt us? What if we threaten them, and the next day we find mines in Baltimore Harbor and the Golden Gate, with a warning that there will be more?'"
more

Celebrating W., the Sequel — all around the world. Barbara Lerner, National Review
In the Middle East, large percentages of the people in three key countries are celebrating too. In Iraq, it's mainly the leaders and the middle classes who share our joy at the president's decisive election victory. In Iran, it's the opposite: Ordinary people of all classes had their hopes rekindled; only the fanatic Mullahs who misrule them are gnashing their teeth, along with the EuroArab axis. more

The Region: Six Mideast challenges for a second-term Bush Barry Rubin, Jerusalem Post
Iran's nuclear weapons: It seems likely that Teheran will get the bomb during Bush's term. US policy takes a tough stand against this proliferation, but what exactly can Bush do about it? He isn't going to attack Iran, and the Europeans are not going to go along with any meaningful sanctions. more

Can Bush Afford to Stay the Course?
Stan Crock, Business Week
The Bush Administration believes that, at some point, it will end up bringing Iran before the U.N. Security Council, an institution the Bush team derided in its first term, and seek sanctions. But Iran has cards to play, too: Its strong economic ties to Europe and Asia could make U.N. support for sanctions problematical. more


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