Don't Get Cocky

Ralph Peters of the NY Post gives us some advice:

For three years, this column has shot down the pessimists who warned we were bound to fail in the Middle East. Now those of us who see our confidence vindicated must beware a premature euphoria.

There's plenty of work ahead.

Our successes have been remarkable. In the past six weeks, we've seen more positive movement in the region than we saw in the preceding six decades. The political landscape of the old Islamic heartlands has changed breathtakingly since our first special-operations team went to work in the wake of 9/11.

Afghanistan's finding its footing as a democracy. Iraq welcomed its first free elections with an enthusiasm and valor that should shame apathetic Western voters. Inspired, the people of Lebanon took to the streets to demand freedom from Syrian occupation. Palestinians voted, too — and their new government is resisting the terrorists who want to frustrate peace efforts.

From Iran through Saudi Arabia to Egypt, the first breezes of change are beginning to blow. read more

But they're not gale-force winds just yet. We would be almost as foolish as the eternal naysayers were we to imagine that our mission is nearing completion.

Excessive euphoria would only play into the hands of those who wanted freedom's campaign to fail all along. If our rhetoric becomes too exuberant, even positive events on the ground could be dismissed as falling short of our promises.

This isn't a time to gloat. Instead, we need to work harder than ever, to keep pushing, to exploit the current momentum.

We should be encouraged -- our enemies are certainly discouraged -- but more American soldiers and civilians are going to be killed in the days ahead. The Middle East's degenerate regimes will not all go down without a fight. Nor will the many terrorists they spawned.

Army planning offices used to have a saying tacked to the wall: "The difficult we do immediately; the impossible takes slightly longer." In the greater Middle East, we've accomplished much that our critics warned was impossible. Without slighting those achievements in the least, let's consider just a few of the challenges ahead:

Iran: We're in a race against time with Tehran. Will the Iranian people rid themselves of their oppressors before the ruling mullahs gain nuclear weapons? Would those "men of God" use nukes against Israel as their regime crumbled?

Iraq: Every current indicator is positive. But a unified, democratic Iraq isn't yet a reality. Old rivalries and the cancer of corruption could still undo much of what's been achieved. If the Kurds are cheated, the country will disintegrate.

Syria: The clumsy Baathist regime could topple with surprising swiftness or it could turn even more oppressive and provide even greater support to the terrorists it harbors. Cornered by history, Syria's rulers could lash out or divide against themselves in civil strife. We still may need to conduct military operations against yesterday's men in Damascus.

Saudi Arabia: Our continued indulgence of the "royal" mafia that runs this country is an ugly blot on America's refurbished record of fighting for freedom, human rights and democracy. We can't change everything at once, but our pressure on the Saudis to reform should be relentless even if we don't like all the choices the population makes in future elections. This perverted state could implode if it clings to the past and yes, the oil matters. We may need to intervene to keep it flowing.

Egypt: President Hosni Mubarak is trying to stave off serious change with a promise of "free" elections his government intends to manipulate. We need to cut off the annual billions in aid we send to Egypt until the regime frees legitimate dissidents from its jails and allows truly free, multi-party elections. Half-measures play into the hands of Islamic extremists.

Terror: Al Qaeda and its affiliates have suffered one catastrophic defeat after another since 9/11. Our efforts have cut deep into their base and reduced their freedom of action. But the hard-core terrorists will continue to use slaughter as a tool to advance their agenda until the last man among them is killed or captured. Progress in the Middle East will cut the ranks of future terrorists, but for now we must fight those already converted to fanaticism. This war is far from over.

What our government and, especially, our men and women in uniform have achieved is worthy of our highest praise and gratitude. Even I didn't believe that we could come so far so fast. But we need to remain sober, to keep our eyes on the long game and to keep up our guard for the challenges still to come.

So go ahead: Crack open one bottle of bubbly (I recommend Dr. Konstantin Frank's elixir from New York's Finger Lakes). But save the rest of the case for the triumphs ahead.

Ralph Peters is the author of "Beyond Baghdad: Postmodern War and Peace."