Friday, March 04, 2005

Friday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.4.2005:

Is there a shift in US policy towards Iran?

If so, the President may be getting more out of the deal than most think.

Many of us watching these developments feel President Bush may be making a strategic move aimed at bringing the EU3/Iran negotiations to an end, sooner rather than later. Time is important here as the Iranians are daily getting closer to their goal of a nuclear bomb.

If President Bush joins the EU3 and offers possible WTO membership and other trade benefits for an end to Iran's nuclear uranium enrichment programs, it will force Iran to respond to the offer.

Iran has consistently said that it will NEVER give up these programs.

If Iran surprises the US and offers to end the programs Condi has made it clear that we will demand verification of compliance. Again, this is something Iran is almost certainly not willing to agree to.

For weeks now, Condi has been in discussions with EU3 leaders as to what constitutes failure of the negotiations, and what actions would they jointly take if this occurs. It appears that President Bush is willing to make concessions, if EU3 makes a few as well.

Thus, I would expect that if we learn that the President is making these trade concessions it is because he has privately obtained an agreement with the EU3 regarding what constitutes a failure of the negotiations and what our joint efforts will be as a result.

If so, the US and EU3 will stand united in the next phase of bringing the Iranian threat to an end.

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