It's a Make-Or-Break Year for Iraq

David Rudge, The Jerusalem Post:

The next 12 months will be crucial for democratic forces in Iraq as well as for the US and its hopes of bringing about stability and reducing insurgency, according to leading Iraqi affairs expert Prof. Amatzia Baram.

Baram put the prospects of success at just over 50 percent, although he stressed that the appointment of a new president, Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, and two vice presidents, leading Sunni Ghazi al-Yawer and Sh'ite Adel Abdul al-Mahdi, marked a tremendous step forward.

"It is a momentous moment for the Iraqis. This is the first time in some 85 years that the national cake is being divided more equally among the various ethnic groups instead of being concentrated in the hands of the Sunnis who held power since the beginning of the 1920's," Baram told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. READ MORE

He spoke prior to the inauguration of the University of Haifa's new Center for Gulf Studies, of which he is director. The official opening was marked by an evening seminar by leading experts on issues relating to the Persian Gulf.

Baram, a senior lecturer in the university's Department of Middle East History, said the success of Iraq's democratic adventure would depend to a great extent on curbing insurgency, developing the economy and infrastructure and wise political power-sharing.

In this respect, he said the US-led multi-national forces and the interim Iraqi government had shown a great deal of patience and understanding during the past 12 months and had been moving in the right direction.

"The Americans made many mistakes at the outset but since May of last year I have not identified any errors of judgement on the part of the US and Iraqi decision-makers. On the contrary, the mistakes recently have been made by the insurgents whose actions have been turning the Iraqi people against them," said Baram.

He maintained that there were primarily two kinds of insurgents: the Islamist Sunni diehards, including those imported from outside together with Ba'athists who had nothing to lose, and Sunni tribesmen.

Some of the latter were being funded by ex-senior members of the former regime of Saddam Hussein who had sought and been given refuge in Syria and were operating from Damascus and other places with the covert blessing of President Bashar Assad and his regime.

"These ex-Ba'ath party Iraqis are sending a lot of money to encourage insurgency. I estimate that 20-30 per cent of attacks are carried out by criminals and tribesmen in return for being paid for their work," said Baram.

"Syria could stop this if it so desired but it is turning a blind eye to these activities not least because Bashar has to placate his own Sunnis who compose the majority of the Syrian population."

Iran now appeared to be concentrating its activities on building up support among Iraq's majority Shi'ite community especially in the South and in population areas near the Iraq-Iran border, he said.

"Basra, for instance, is now controlled by fundamentalist Shi'ite militias whose members are heavily influenced by Iran. In terms of Islamic customs and institutions, Basra is far more fundamentalist now than Teheran. This does not bode well given the fact that southern Iraq is one of the richest oil-producing areas anywhere in the world," said Baram.

He maintained that the decision-makers in Iraq had to focus on fighting insurgency through military means while trying to hold the country together by creating more jobs and generally improving the standard of living for average citizens and their families.

"The new government and the Americans have about a year to build a credible military force composed of Kurds, Shi'ites and those Sunnis willing to serve, especially those who previously held command positions," he said.

"If, by then, they have about 150,000 reasonably well-trained men in the army, the police force, the security apparatus and have developed a rapid intervention force, the Americans will be able to withdraw from heavily populated areas," Baram said. The reduced presence and visibility of US troops would help lower tension, while the local Iraqi forces that replaced them would still be able to rely on the help of American advisers, logistics support and "over the horizon" aerial assistance if required.

"The economic sphere is equally if not more important," he added. "It is essential to create jobs via hundreds of projects all over the country so that the insurgents will not be able to sabotage them and also boost electricty supplies, improve water, sewage and drainage systems and build new homes. At the moment there is a need for some 2.5 million new family homes," he said.

"The third issue is the political sphere and whether, given Iraq's historical background, Shi'ite and Kurds will be sufficiently generous and wise in offering reasonable power sharing to the Sunnis despite all the antagonism built up over the years."

Baram maintained that if all three issues were tackled in a very determined manner in the coming year, there would be a "fighting chance" of keeping Iraq in one piece, making sure that the democratic process takes a hold, and for a gradual economic and political recovery.

"This year and early 2006 marks a window of opportunity for the democratic forces in Iraq and the US-led multi-national forces to stabilize the system and reduce insurgency. The alternative would be civil war resulting in the break-up of Iraq, which would be terrible for the Iraqi people and the region because of the instability it would cause," Baram added.