Change of Iran's nuclear guard

Safa Haeri, Asia Times:

The European Three (EU3 - Germany, Britain and France) who have been engaged for more than two years in hard negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, should be prepared for a possible change in attitude in Tehran once the president-elect, Mahmud Ahmadinejad, officially takes over early next month, Iranian analysts have said.

They note the presence of Ali Larijani at a meeting between Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari and Ahmadinejad on Monday. READ MORE

"Mr Ahmadinejad asked me to be present at the meeting as an adviser," Larijani told the independent Sharq (East) newspaper, adding that "in the past I've served him in matters of foreign affairs".

Larijani was one of only a handful of candidates allowed to stand in Iran's recent presidential elections. The conservatives-backed candidate, a former head of the state-controlled Radio and Television, fared poorly behind the top two winners in the first round, who then went into a runoff before Ahmadinejad emerged as the winner.

Now Larijani is being tipped as a possible foreign affairs minister, as well as secretary to the Supreme Council on National Security (SCNS), replacing Hasan Rohani, or even first vice president.

"Either way, he would serve as one of the closest aides to Ahmadinejad in matters of foreign relations," Sharq speculated, observing that Larijani was standing "shoulder-to-shoulder" with the president-elect.

The only candidate to urge his supporters to vote for Ahmadinejad in the second round of the presidential elections, Larijani has been a tough critic of the way in which Iran has been conducting talks with the EU3, and has suggested, without further explanation, "new paths and approaches".

"We gave the Europeans pure jewels and got bonbons instead," he famously once said, also saying that in the matter of foreign relations, Iran must talk from a position of strength.

If, as expected - and his presence at the Jaafari-Ahmadinejad meeting is seen as confirmation - Larijani is named as the head of Iran's diplomacy, or as secretary of the SCNS, he will be involved with the EU3. The Europeans can then expect some hard bargaining over suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, and its temporary suspension of uranium-enriching activities, Iranian analysts pointed out.

"Though Mr Rohani and other senior officials have repeated that the change of government and even presidents does not concern the nuclear issue, the nomination of Mr Larijani as foreign affairs minister or secretary of the SCNS indicates serious changes," Sharq commented, adding that Rohani had suggested that the nuclear file be transferred to the Foreign Affairs Ministry.

Mohammad Hussein Moussavian, a senior Iranian negotiator with the EU3, has advised the incoming government to continue talks with the EU3 "even if they ask for further suspension of uranium-enriching activities". He also said that the Europeans should take "an active part" in Iran's project to build 20 nuclear reactors for energy.

"We plan to build 20 nuclear reactors. In case the Europeans, in their proposals, agree to support this project and guarantee the sustained supply of fuel for the reactors, we should welcome it. But in case they insist on a permanent suspension of enriching uranium, we must strongly reject this, but not interrupt the negotiations, since we are very close to reaching an agreement," said Moussavian, the head of the foreign policy department of the SCNS.

Originally, Tehran intended to build six atomic electricity power stations, one of which, situated in the Persian Gulf port of Bushehr, is near completion with the help of Russia at a cost of US$800 million.

But in a defiant move against American and Israeli pressure on its nuclear ambitions, the present conservative-controlled majlis, or parliament, urged the outgoing government of President Mohammad Khatami to consider the construction of 20 power plants, a proposal that has been reiterated to the president-elect.

In negotiations over the past few years with both the EU3 and the United Nations watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rohani and his team have agreed to temporarily stop enriching uranium, an important step in producing nuclear energy and also in making atomic weapons. Iran also agreed to sign the Additional Protocols to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, allowing inspectors to visit any nuclear sites and projects without restriction and on short notice. In return, Iran has been offered various economic sweeteners, including "assistance" in joining the World Trade Organization.

"The Europeans may ask for a continuation of the suspension of uranium activities ... but they could be waiting for the next Iranian government," Moussavian said, hinting that the present negotiating team could be changed as Rohani's mission ends with that of Khatami.

Contacted by Asia Times Online, a source close to the EU3 delegation confirmed that it was indeed waiting for the new government to be installed.

Although the president-elect has repeated that mega-projects like the nuclear one or the main aspects of foreign policy are decided "not by presidents but by the leader" (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on every major domestic or foreign issue), Ahmadinejad has also stated that he would "under no conditions" yield to international pressure to stop permanently the uranium-enriching process.

In an interview with the Iranian Student News Agency, Ali Aqa Mohammadi, the spokesman for the SCNS, said, "All Iran has to do in the Wednesday [July 20] meeting in London is to remove the wrong interpretation the European side has about the next government and its policy concerning the nuclear issue. The macro policies of the Islamic republic are decided in a collegial form supervised by the leader and do not change with government," he stated.

On Tuesday, though, Khatami warned that there would be no bargaining over Iran's peaceful nuclear programs, state-television network IRIB reported. "There will be no bargain and no incentive whatsoever can make us give up pursuing our peaceful nuclear programs," Khatami said.

The EU3 are expected to offer Iran a package by the end of August that will include European conditions for reaching an agreement or taking the issue to the United Nations Security Council, as demanded by Washington.

Eager to enter the lucrative nuclear market in Iran worth billions of dollars, Europe is afraid that because of American pressure the West might loose ground to Russia. In interviews with The Asia Times Online, some Iranian negotiators have indicated their preference for Western nuclear technology over that of Russia, and said that Tehran had no objection to American constructors bidding for future Iranian nuclear reactors alongside Europe.

Safa Haeri is a Paris-based Iranian journalist covering the Middle East and Central Asia.