"How Dangerous is Iran?" - Full text of the Cicero article on Iran

Winds of Change: Here is the full English text of the recent Cicero article on Iran as provided by the brave men and women of the Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS).

Potsdam Cicero (Internet Version-WWW) in German 27 Oct 05

[Article by Bruno Schirra: "How Dangerous Is Iran?"]

[FBIS Translated Text]

Mohamad Ali Abtahi is a man whose voice has grown weary. A man for whom his faith led single-mindedly into politics, which, so it appears, after long years as a partner in power, has driven him first to melancholy calmness and then into deep resignation. Now he sits in his threadbare armchair and stares out into the world, his eyes dull. His face has grown old and grey before its time.

In truth, the Mullah Mohammad Ali Abtahi, at 47, is still a fairly young man. One who, many years ago, looked at the world and the future full of vitality and confidence, with a full, chubby-cheeked face and wily eyes, from which a mischievous gleam constantly seemed to flash. He fought for his God, for His justice, so that it could take hold in what the Constitution calls the "Only theocracy on Earth." Finally, Abtahi did this in his function as vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Two days before our conversation, he had resigned from his office, worn down by the constant battling with the radical hardliners of the Majlis. In the Parliament in Tehran, Iran's radical Islamist parties won a landslide victory in the spring 2004 elections. "Let us not kid ourselves," Mohammad Ali Abtahi began our conversation: "Even if the Council of Guardians excluded the most reform oriented candidates from the parliamentary elections before the election -- for the reformers in Iran this 2004 election was a disaster. The people abandoned us."

In defiance of all the reformers' calls for a boycott, Iranian voters flocked to take part in these parliamentary elections. The boycott, the only means the Iranian reformers had of presenting themselves as a politically relevant force in the country, did not take place. Even in Tehran, the metropolis of the theocracy, which actually can point to something resembling cosmopolitan niches, barely 50 percent of the voters went to the polls, and the majority voted conservative or radical Islamist. In his analysis, Mr. Abtahi became lost in deep pessimism on this October day: "This election means the failure of all reform. The consequence is a high, a very high wall; this sets in concrete for years the radical Islamist realities of the Islamic Republic, and the vision of a democratic Islamist civil society is ruins. You know the case of Ateqeh Rajabi?" he then asks softly.

"What about Ateqeh Rajabi?" Mr. Abtahi hears the question, his voice now sounds even more weary, despairingly weak. He dealt with the case of Ateqeh Rajabi. He knows all too well that there are countless cases like this one in his Islamic Republic, knows that there were also always cases like this one in all the eight years of the reformist emergence of his friend Khatami, and knows that these cases serve as examples to explain why the reformers of his country were bound to fail. Because as long as Shari'a, the Islamic system of law, is the only constitutional basis for the Islamic Republic of Iran, democratic reforms really cannot be carried out. Not against the resistance of the Islamist justice system, the Islamist guardians of the revolution, the Islamist power apparatus of the supreme spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. All those for whom Shari'a is the absolute guiding principle of their action. Mr. Abtahi groped his way through this truth during the hours of the conversation on this October day; he talked around it cautiously, weary and resigned. Mohammad Ali Abtahi cannot voice this truth, however, because he is a Mullah. "I simply cannot put this aside," he said, "even if I do not consider anything that happened with Ateqeh Rajabi to be right."

Ateqeh Rajabi was hanged, she dangled for a whole hour on the rope, on this crane in Neka, a small town in the north of Iran. At 0600 on 15 August 2004 she was hanged, hanged until her legs finally no longer twitched. It took 11 minutes; her death struggle lasted 11 minutes. The inhabitants of Neka had all come to see her die with their own eyes. They stood and stared, mute and without moving. Since even Neka's executioner refused to discharge his duties, the Neka judge, the Haji Rajai himself proceeded to action, personally placing the hemp rope around her neck and raising her high on the crane. Ateqeh Rajabi was 15 years and seven months old when she died. For her judge, the honorable Haji Rajai, it was a matter close to his heart to carry out his duties in the greatest strictness. After all, the young girl Ateqeh Rajabi was a "corrupter of morals, much worse than a whore." That is what Haji Rajai had argued when the validity of his first-instance death sentence was examined before the Supreme Court of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as provided for under the Constitution.

The proceedings, the passage through the courts, took less than four weeks. Then the supreme Judge of Allah, in accordance with the Shari'a legal opinions and for the greater good of Islamic morals, upheld the death sentence against Ateqeh Rajabi. Ateqeh Rajabi was guilty, because witnesses had seen her holding hands with a man 10 years her senior in the Neka park. There was the suspicion that things had not stopped with handholding, particularly since this was not the first time she had publicly "prostituted herself." Thus spoke the Neka judge, Haji Rajai.

"I am not a whore, I am still a virgin," Ateqeh Rajabi had screamed in Haji Rajai's face during the trial; then she had lifted up her chador, spread her legs, with her finger on her own private parts and lashed out at the judge: "See for yourself!"

On this October day, Mohammad Ali Abtahi talked about this event and about what such a death sentence means for his country. It means that in the face of such a justice system, no human rights dialogue can be conducted, "nor can any be conducted between Europe and the true holders of power in my country." The day before, a Western ambassador had described this process as a "dialogue of deaf-mutes." And then admired the fine bouquet of a dry spaetlese wine.

After this story, on this October day Mohammad Ali Abtahi got up from his armchair in his "center for religious dialogue" and gave the visitor a last warning to carry with him: "We have here in our country powerful rightist extremist power groups. In the next presidential election, they can win back the last bastion of the reformers. The next half year will not only be the most dangerous period for Iran in a long time. That is even more true for Europe and the United States."

Months later, to the bafflement of all Western experts and observers, Tehran Mayor Mahmud Ahmadinezhad was elected in Iran's presidential election with a clear majority as the new president of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The candidate for the reformers finished far behind. At 0300, an email reached me: "I did everything; I fought desperately. It was all for nothing. We all failed. Our country will be lost." The sender was Mohammad Ali Abtahi.

There is reason for his despair, because with the election of Ahmadinezhad the radical Islamist hardliners have now recaptured all the control centers of power in Iran. "Ahmadinezhad," Abtahi writes, "is a visionary. He dreams of a second, revolution in Iran, the Islamist one. He is the representative of the rightist extremists that I warned you about. I was always against Ahmadinezhad," he writes further. "We have always fought against him and against those who back him. Now, however, we have experienced a crushing defeat. What lies ahead for us and for you is the long night of darkness that I spoke about at the time." Behind Abtahi's words is the fear that now, since all power centers are united in the hands of radical Islamist power groups around supreme spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i, "these people will play the nuclear card just the same as the card of global terror."

In fact, the new president made clear right after his triumphant election victory, "We did not carry out the Islamist revolution in order to introduce democracy." He hammered his objectives home to the rejoicing followers. "Our revolution seeks to achieve worldwide power," he said, continuing, "I am a pure fundamentalist." He repeats these principles the length and breadth of the country, castigates "Western decadence," promises "the strictest interpretation of the religious laws of Shari'a." Internationally recognized conventions on women's rights are for him "a fatal offense against the values of Islam." This is not so much a devout Muslim speaking as rather one who knows that he is in possession of the one, the pure truth. The masses follow him.

Within the close circle of his loyal followers, Iran's new state president Mahmud Ahmadinezhad revealed his great vision. It stems from the days of the 1979 Islamist Revolution. Now it harbors within it a new explosive force. "The new Islamic revolution" according to Ahmadinezhad, will cut out the roots of injustice throughout the entire world. The era of the Godless regime, tyranny, and injustice has come to its end," he prophesies. "The wave of the Islamist revolution will soon reach the entire world."

It appears that the new Iranian state president has already mercilessly pursued his enemy. The Austrian state police possess information that suggests that Ahmadinezhad belonged to the "reserves" of the killer teams that murdered Kurdish leader Abd al-Rahman Qassimlou on 13 July 1989 in Vienna. Then state President Rafsanjani gave the order for the murder. A witness who has now surfaced, who for security reasons is identified only as "D," has revealed detailed insider information to the Austrian police.

Western political leaders and security experts are evincing alarm. "The man at the head of Iran is an extremist, he wants to export the Islamist revolution," it is said in intelligence circles. "If this becomes Iran's new foreign policy, a maximum terrorist worst-case scenario threatens the West. Then the Sunni Al-Qa'ida terrorists and Shi'ite terrorist organizations will cooperate closely. Against the common enemy. Against the West."

One scenario is of particular concern to Western intelligence: Iran becomes radicalized and delivers to Al-Qa'ida in the future what the holy killers today only dream about: chemical and biological weapons for their holy war against the West.

This is not panic mongering, because Iran's new president has had an exemplary career in Iran's Revolutionary Guard and its intelligence service. "Ahmadinezhad can and will use the terrorist card every time as extortion against the West," says a member of the Jordanian GID intelligence service. "If Europe does not accommodate Iran in the dispute over the Mullahs' nuclear program, they will threaten terrorism against British soldiers in Iraq and French interests in Lebanon."

Iran's European negotiating partners now fear that what was previously only threatened will become reality after Ahmadinezhad's entry into office. Especially since their intelligence services possess alarming findings. "For Ahmadinezhad, the threat of terrorism is not a diplomatic finger exercise. He believes in the 'purity' of the Islamist revolution, and he translates into action what he threatens," assesses a Western intelligence service.

In fact, the intelligence service of the Revolutionary Guard has been providing the leadership of Al-Qa'ida with a secure hiding place, logistical support, military training, and equipment for years. "The fact that Sunni jihadists and Shi'ites hate one another is, for both sides, no reason not to cooperate. They have a common enemy," Western intelligence services are aware.

The author of this article was able to look at a list of the holy killers who have found safe refuge in Iran. The list reads like the Who's Who of global jihad, with close to 25 high-ranking leadership cadres of Al-Qa'ida -- planners, organizers, and ideologues of the jihad from Egypt, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, and Europe. Right at the top in the Al-Qa'ida hierarchy: three of Usama Bin Ladin's sons, Saad, Mohammad, and Othman.

Al-Qa'ida spokesman Abu Ghaib enjoys Iranian protection, as does Abu Dagana al-Alemani (known as the German), who coordinates cooperation of the various jihadist networks throughout the world from Iran. They live in secure housing of the Revolutionary Guard in and around Tehran. "This is not prison or house arrest," is the conclusion of a high-ranking intelligence officer. "They are free to do as they please."

Saif al-Adel, military chief and number three in Al-Qa'ida, also had a free hand. In early May 2003, Saudi intelligence recorded a telephone conversation with the organizer of the series of attacks in the Saudi capital Riyadh that claimed over 30 victims, including seven foreigners, in May 2003. Saif al-Adel gives orders for the attacks from Iran, where he operated under the wing of the Iranian intelligence service.

For years, according to the findings of Middle Eastern and Western intelligence services, Iranian intelligence services have already worked together repeatedly with Sunni jihad organizations of Al-Qa'ida. "As an Islamist, I go to the Saudis to get money," the Jordanian GID man outlines the current practice of Islamist holy warriors. "When I need weapons, logistical support, or military terrorist training and equipment, I go to the Iranians."

The blueprints for the Al-Qa'ida attacks on the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 originated in Tehran. The man refers to witness statements, documents, and telephone recordings.

Quite open and very warlike notes have also been sounded by Iran itself, however. They bear witness to the return of the Iranian state terrorism of the 1980s and 1990s in the past century. More than 60 people fell victim to a series of hostage takings and murders of Western foreigners that lasted for years. The barracks of the US Marines as well as of the French peacekeeping forces were blown up, and hundreds of people died. The perpetrators: the Lebanese Hizballah. The planners and men behind them came from the leadership of Iran's Revolutionary Guard.

In 1992, under the direction of Iranian diplomats and officers of the Revolutionary Guard, members of the Lebanese Hizballah reduced the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires to rubble in an explosion, and in 1994, they blew up the Jewish AMIA social center in the Argentine capital.

Western intelligence services now fear a repetition of this series of global terrorism. In view of a large newspaper announcement, which appeared in August in the paper Partow-e Sokhan, this is a realistic prospect -- especially if the dispute between Iran and the West over the Iranian nuclear weapons program continues to escalate. The text of the notice reads as follows: "Martyr attacks are the highest virtue and the highest courage;" it is signed by the "Commando of Volunteer Martyrs" as responsible for the text. Behind this is Ansar Hizballah, the most radical Islamist death squad of the Islamic Republic. Mohammadresa Jafari the supreme commander of the "Commando of Volunteer Martyrs," is threatening the global deployment of suicide commandos and 50,000 fighters have already been recruited. In the United States and other NATO countries, suicide commandos are also currently standing by ready for action at any time. "The enemy is afraid," says Mohammadresa Jafari, "that the culture of martyrdom will become a world culture of all those who love freedom."

Behind the Ansar Hizballah and the potential suicide attacks stands one man: the owner of the newspaper Partow-e Sokhan. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the most radical hardliner in the Islamic Republic and the man who organized the triumphant landslide election of Mahmud Ahmadinezhad. Mesbah Yazdi's political skill led Ahmadinezhad to the presidency. Ayatollah Yazdi, propagandist of global suicide attacks, praises Ahmadinezhad's administration as "the first Islamic administration in the history of the Islamic Republic."

A threatening backdrop that could become real for Western security experts in the near future. Because in the nuclear dispute with the West, Ahmadinezhad is openly threatening the next stage of escalation. In concrete terms, he is threatening the resumption of all enrichment activities. The enrichment of uranium is indispensable for building a nuclear bomb.

According to IAEA experts in Vienna, it is true that Iran's broad nuclear infrastructure makes sense to the extent that a country wants to make itself independent of fissile fuels. It makes even more sense, however, if a country intends to build the bomb. "If I lay everything on the table that we know about the Iranian nuclear program, along with all the information that we possess about the Iran's medium-range missile program," says an IAEA inspector, "then my answer to the question of whether Iran is building the bomb goes like this: It looks like a duck, it waddles like a duck, and it goes quack quack. What, then, do you believe it is?"

The practical consequences of this answer make Western intelligence services shudder: "If anyone, the United States or even Israel, gets the idea to bomb the Iranian nuclear weapons program back 10 years into the past, then God help us," says a Western intelligence officer. "Then the Mullahs will unleash their guard dogs worldwide. They will equip and support all Shi'ite terrorist networks with the Sunni networks globally, that is, with everything that they have. For us it would be the ultimate worst-case scenario, one for which we are not prepared." READ MORE

[Description of Source: Potsdam Cicero (Internet Version-WWW) in German -- monthly news magazine]

Reference:
1. German Magazine Reports Iran Sheltering Bin Ladin Sons, Al-Qa'ida Members EUP20051026102016 AFP (North European Service) 26 Oct 05

This is the author and publication that was raided by the German authorities earlier this year for publishing classified German intelligence information. It is credible. A definite must read. It needs to be widely read.