Polemic and Purges Pile up Toubles for Iran's Leader

Simon Tisdall and Ewen MacAskill, The Guardian:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad faces a range of critical problems with the west, ranging from Iran's nuclear ambitions to its deep hostility to Israel. But the Iranian president's handling of these flashpoints is also creating internal problems - reaching the highest levels in Tehran.

Mr Ahmadinejad has divided the powerful clerical establishment as well as alienating moderates, an informed Iranian source said yesterday. "He is defying everybody. But he is not a power that cannot be challenged."

The president's most controversial step was his comment that Israel was a blot that should be "wiped off the map". His words brought international condemnation and delighted Iran's many enemies, who said they demonstrated the problems they faced in trying to deal rationally with Tehran.

The Iranian source said: "What he said about Israel united everyone. It delighted the American neo-cons, it delighted all our Arab rivals, it delighted the Israelis and it delighted - at the emotional level - the poor, long-suffering Palestinians. But it was totally against Iran's national interest." READ MORE

Mr Ahmadinejad's mixture of confrontationalism and inexperience is increasing ructions at home. Several rows have flared about his nominees for key ministries - in particular the oil ministry - with MPs complaining about a failure to consult. His purge of dozens of senior ministers, officials and diplomats brought an unusual rebuke this week from Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president whom he beat in this year's presidential election and who chairs the Expediency Council, a government oversight body.

Plans to enlarge the ambassadorial cull to include up to 40 diplomats were shelved following angry political and media reaction in Tehran.

For Iran's population at large, it is the president's failure so far to create jobs, raise living standards or crack down on corruption associated with Iran's oil industry that is most serious. His planned extension of state controls of the economy and his peremptory sacking of seven state bank presidents has undermined business confidence.

His idea of offering state handouts to newlyweds has not changed public perception that he and his inexperienced cabinet have failed to get to grips with the main economic problems for the country's 70 million people.

"The first test of popularity for the new government will come with municipal elections next year and elections for the Assembly of Experts [who elect the supreme leader or senior cleric]," the source said. "But if he continues like this, he could face impeachment in the majlis [parliament] if the conservative majority turns against him. There will be no 'Orange Revolution' in Iran, but popular discontent on the streets could grow."

Mr Ahmadinejad had his first opportunity to set a new tone when he addressed the UN summit in New York in September. His confrontational speech, in which he insisted on Iran's inalienable right to develop weapons-related nuclear technology, dismayed Britain, France and Germany, the three EU countries that have been negotiating over the nuclear dispute for two years.

Within days of taking office, Mr Ahmadinejad sacked Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rohani, and ordered the resumption of uranium conversion, the first step towards a possible nuclear weapon capability.

Dealing with the potentially dangerous situation within Tehran poses a fresh headache for western governments. But the international community is as divided as the Iranians. Scarred by memories of the run-up to the Iraq war, divisions have emerged between leading UN countries. Russia and China oppose a rush to sanctions, and India, which has signed an energy deal with Iran, also favours a gradual approach.

Britain, France and Germany have used the nuclear negotiations to boost a concept of a European foreign policy while holding back a more confrontational US administration. But even here there are splits over tactics. British officials admit there is a difference in approach between Tony Blair and his foreign secretary, Jack Straw. While Mr Straw has repeatedly said military action against Iran over its nuclear policy is "inconceivable", Mr Blair has sought to keep the Iranians guessing. He favours challenging Iran not only on the nuclear issue but on human rights, and even the legitimacy of its democracy. He also wants to encourage growth of a civil society. But Iranian officials calculate that George Bush, distracted by Iraq, is unlikely to seek another confrontation.