Test of Wills Between Iran and the West

Steven R. Weisman, The New York Times:

One day after Iran moved to break the internationally monitored seals on its nuclear facilities, a contest of wills between Iran and its adversaries unfolded, with the Europeans threatening to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for possible punitive actions and Iran issuing defiant new warnings.

Signaling this strategy, Vice President Dick Cheney, in an interview with Fox News, said Wednesday that the United States would seek the adoption of "a resolution that could be enforced by sanctions, were they to fail to comply with it." Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain told the Parliament the same thing, saying that "we have to decide what measures to take and we obviously don't rule out any measures at all."

Among the possibilities being discussed, various officials said, were a ban on travel by Iranian diplomats, restrictions on new commercial contracts or sports contests and other small steps falling short of what would be the toughest sanction of all - either a ban on oil purchases or on the export of refined gasoline to Iran. READ MORE

But it was unclear whether the Europeans could get Russia, China, India and other countries to join a consensus for sanctions, making it possible for the Security Council to act on them. Nor was it certain that Iran would change its behavior in response to new pressures.

"The issue cannot be solved by imposing sanctions or similar measures," said Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former Iranian president. The West would regret any such attempts, he warned in a speech on Wednesday as Iran celebrated the Muslim holiday of Id al-Adha.

"I believe the West has played this game too late and played into Iranian hands," said Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University. "At this stage, they are convinced that the more hardball they play, the more the West will collapse." Mr. Milani said that news reports from Iran suggested that its government had used the last few years to sign up oil deals with various countries to gain their political support, dispersed its nuclear activities to some 300 sites around the country and stockpiled food, medicine and other materials to survive any sanctions.

American and European officials say that two years of efforts to negotiate with Iran, including the discussion of incentives for ending its nuclear programs, has at least brought leading countries of the world closer to a willingness to apply coercion now that talks have failed.

They have indicated that the next phase of pressure is likely to take place a step at a time, perhaps starting with a referral of Iran's case by the International Atomic Energy Agency to the United Nations Security Council early next month.

"A lot of what can be done is simply related to Iran's status in the world," said Mitchell B. Reiss, a policy and planning director at the State Department in the first Bush term. "The Iranians are very sensitive to challenges to their own legitimacy, and there are a lot of things you can do before bringing down the hammer big time."

But others are less sure of such a course of action, and they fear that Iran can string out the process by appearing to cooperate at each phase, peeling off Russian and Chinese support with a show of reasonableness.

"I've been surprised that so many people are acting like referral to the Security Council is some important event that will bring about change in the government of Iran," said an administration official, asking not to be identified as questioning the Western strategy. "I don't buy it."

A second official, asked if the period of diplomacy had now ended, said: "No. Diplomacy just passes to a new phase, one of diplomatic judgment of Iran." Such a judgment, he said, will be easier because of the recent inflammatory comments from its new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, about wiping Israel off the map.

For the time being, there is no talk of military action against Iran, except hypothetically, in part because any kind of airstrike or covert attempt to sabotage its facilities would provoke retaliations in Iraq, Israel and elsewhere.

A few years ago, for example, Bush administration hawks spoke of the powerfully persuasive effect on Iran of 150,000 American troops in neighboring Iraq. Now, the United States is angrily calling on Iran not to support lethal attacks on American troops by insurgents. There remain some in the Bush administration who say that American officials could have made a greater attempt in the last year or so to reach out to the Tehran government. But there is no indication that Iran was interested.

The American ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, was authorized to engage Iranians in discussions about cross-border infiltration of bombs and other devices used against Americans, but has been rebuffed.

Meanwhile, the United States has concentrated its efforts on trying to isolate Iran diplomatically, proclaiming success repeatedly but without proof that it has gotten anything more than lip service so far.

State Department officials say that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been concentrating this week on getting Russia on board the campaign to confront Iran. They say Russia has responded with surprisingly tough talk to Iran's rebuff of an offer to enrich uranium on Russian soil, but that Russia could still call for more delays.

China, administration and European officials say, is considered likely to accept sanctions if Russia does.

In its five years in office, the Bush administration has engaged in a long-running internal debate over how to deal with Iran. Hard-liners at the Pentagon and Mr. Cheney's office argued against having any diplomatic contacts with Tehran.

Some at the State Department say privately that more efforts might have yielded some results, and they got the administration to go along with the European efforts to offer economic benefits last year.

Iran has had two military plane crashes in the last month, for example, and these officials argue that the offer of spare parts for commercial aircraft might have done the trick.

Some conservatives in the administration have begun to play with the idea that the best that could be done is to delay Iran's nuclear bomb-making ability, and the United States should use the time to try to encourage political change within Iran.

A small effort has begun to provide assistance to dissident groups, for example. But a meeting to discuss further openings with Iran as a means to undermine the government was canceled last year after The Wall Street Journal disclosed the plans and hard-liners attacked them as too conciliatory.

Nazila Fathi contributed reporting from Tehran for this article.