Military Attack on Iran

Iranian blogger, Mehrdad Sheibani, Roozonline:

The chances of success at the Iran-European nuclear talks are very slim. By taking the issue to the UN Security Council, the options to resolve the issue will be limited to just one: an outcome that will bring a dead end. But what is going on at the Council these days? Should Iran be really afraid of it? Who has the upper hand if a conflict erupts? The most radical tool that seems to be available to the Council members is a military strike and embargo against Iran. But there are numerous reasons why this is not likely to happen.

The paragraph above is a paraphrase of yesterday's editorial in Kayhan daily, the spokesmedia for the hardline conservatists in Iran. READ MORE

It coincides with the first day of the new round of talks between Iran and the Europeans on Iran's nuclear policies. What emerges from this and the other events since the presidential elections is that the new presidential team is preparing itself for battle, even an attack by the US.

Rahim Safavi, the Passdaran Revolutionary Guard Commander's words are perhaps indicative of where his thoughts are when he says that "Knowledge and technology in addition to conviction and will determine future wars."

So it appears that the shortest path to victory in defeating the enemy in a war using Iran's potential defense capabilities lies in the file that sits on the negotiations table: Iran's nuclear file. According to Mohsen Armin Fazasazi, a political commentator, one of the first consequences of the presidential elections in Iran was the renewed interest in the nuclear energy issue. While the talks with the Europeans continue and President Khatami managed to find a way to promote the national interest in this regard, there is now talk of altering the uranium enrichment policy. The National Radio and Television network has embarked on numerous programs about the achievements in the nuclear field and the need to continue these policies, a measure aimed at forming public opinion for a change. So while the incumbent President and his team continue to remind everyone that the nothing is changing regarding nuclear policy, the hardliners are in fact preparing for war with the world. A world which already is prepared for war at different fronts. This cry of war is even heard at the international Wrestling Federation which announces that Iran does not qualify to hold the Asian and international wrestling competitions which women are barred from it. In the US, Congress has a bill before it that states that those responsible for taking the American embassy staff as hostage for 444 days in Iran must be punished. In Europe, the British Foreign Office calls on the Iranian ambassador to London to lodge a formal protest over remarks made by ayatollah Janati at a Friday prayer, who said that the British government itself was involved in the recent underground and bus bombings in London. The German Chancellor in a recent mention of Iran equates Ahmadinejad with terrorism.

At this end, president-elect Ahmadinejad continues his silent work in finding his cabinet members, but still finds the time to pursue a suit against the Kermanshah Provincial government which objected to Ahmadinejad's recent comments against President Khatami.

Human rights continue to keep Iran in the headlines. From the conflicting news that leaks out, it appears that Ganjis has already had or needs to have surgery on his foot. Official news coming from Tehran Judiciary's office states that unless Ganji requests conditional pardon, he will have to serve his full prison term. The head of Iran's Judiciary, on the other hand continues his evasion game and while issuing a statement that Ganji's case is being reviewed for his release, only confuses the situation. Ganji's health continues to be in question.

The Iranian Writers Guild announces that its request for a permit to hold a meeting has again been declined by the government. It adds that this has been the practice of the Intelligence Ministry during Khatami's 2nd presidency. The family of Behrouz Javid Tehrani, another political prisoner who was permitted to be visited after months, talks of brutal torture while being in solitary confinement. An Iranian weblog informs its readers that the town of Mahabad, the scene of recent riots where at least one person was killed, is now under the full control of some 3000 military forces. And finally, the strike that had begun at the Iran Khodro car assembly line has now expanded and includes workers at the Kashan textile mill who have embarked on a foot journey to Tehran and wish to personally state to the Majlis (Parliament) that they have not received their wages for months.

And while the provincial offices of the Majmae Rohaniayte Mobarez, a powerful and clerical association has suspended its work until Mehdi Karoubi, who had resigned from it following his rejection of the presidential election results of June 2005, returns to it, Alireza Rajai provides some news that the efforts continue to form the Democracy and Human Rights Front, something that had begun during the election days in May 2005.

Mehrdad Sheibani is a seasoned journalist and commentator living in exile.