Election Outcome May Affect Course of Iran's Nuclear Talks

The Scotsman: This was published before the election results were known, but provides insight into the thinking of Ahmedinejad.

Ultra-conservative candidate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has sent strong signals that he might push his country toward a much tougher stance in sensitive negotiations with the West over its controversial nuclear programme, if he wins the presidency in tomorrow’s vote.

The issue is being watched closely by European and US officials. It also is a top campaign issue for Iranians themselves, who view the nuclear programme as a source of pride but also a source of worrying tension with Europe and the US.

Ahmadinejad on Monday accused Iran’s nuclear negotiators of being weak in the past and of giving in to European pressure at the negotiation table, prompting the belief he will push for a tougher position should he win. READ MORE

“We’ve had enough of waiting for Westerners to decide about us,” said Mansour Hesami, 37, who has a portrait of Ahmadinjad in his shop. “We have to resume our nuclear activity as soon as possible after Ahmadinejad comes to power.”

Senior officials, including Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi, have tried to tell the public that the election of a new president won’t affect Iran’s major foreign policy goals. Nevertheless, the Foreign Ministry sharply criticised Ahmadinejad’s comments.

In contrast, his opponent in the run-off, pragmatist Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, is widely expected to keep the list of key nuclear negotiators in place – and keep doors open to a compromise with the West if he wins.

Rafsanjani has campaigned extensively within Iran, in TV and other appearances, on the plank that he is the most capable person to handle the delicate talks. He also has won backing from the country’s top nuclear officials, clearly worried about the possibility of Ahmadinejad taking over.

The two will enter a head-to-head run-off tomorrow after neither failed to win a majority in the first round of the election.

“Rafsanjani can manage the important issues of Iran, especially the nuclear story, in a moderate way,” said Reza Khatibi, 47, a book store owner. “If he’s not elected, I will leave this country. It will be so dangerous.”

In Sweden, meanwhile, the former chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix said Iran is “many years” away from producing the highly enriched uranium needed for an atomic bomb.

“I believe there is plenty of room for negotiations,” Blix said in an interview with Swedish Radio.

Blix also said a planned nuclear reactor being built in Bushehr in southern Iran is not suitable to produce nuclear weapons.

Iranian state television today quoted Asabollah Sabori, deputy head of Iran’s nuclear agency, as saying the Bushehr reactor will become fully operational by end of 2006. He said the date of a nuclear fuel shipment from Russia is “confidential.”

Rafsanjani, who served as president from 1989 to 1997, has been lauded by Iran’s top nuclear officials, who say the country needs his wisdom and experience to handle the nuclear negotiations.

Gholamreza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, said during a recent interview that Rafsanjani was the only person who could positively present Iran’s position, given his influence, moderate views and political clout.

Hasan Rowhani, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, said Iran needed a powerful and experienced president to successfully handle the issue – an open reference to Rafsanjani.

The US accuses Iran of using a peaceful nuclear programme as a cover to develop an atomic bomb. Iran maintains its programme is peaceful and is aimed only at generating electricity.

In negotiations with Europeans last month, Iran agreed to continue its suspension of uranium enrichment and all related activities, in exchange for a European pledge to come up with comprehensive proposals for a new round of talks later this year.

Iran suspended all uranium enrichment-related activities last November to avoid having its nuclear programme referred to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.

However, Iran has always said its suspension is temporary and it will never abandon enrichment. Uranium enriched to low levels has energy uses, while highly enriched uranium can be used in bombs.

France, Britain and Germany have been offering economic incentives in the hope of persuading Iran to put a permanent halt to enrichment.

Ahmadinejad pursues a tough foreign policy and told a press conference last week that he could not foresee improved ties with any country that “seeks hostility” against Iran, a reference to the US.

Some of Ahmadinejad supporters, including the hard-line Students’ Islamic Association, want the government to seek nuclear weapons to “deter the US from threatening or attacking us.”

After Ahmadinejad accused Iran’s nuclear negotiators of being weak in comments on Monday to hard-line MPs, the Foreign Ministry reacted angrily.

“Weakening the country’s foreign policy under the current complicated circumstances and excessive demands of foreign countries is not to our interests,” Foreign Ministry spokesman said in response to Ahmadinejad’s criticism.