Brutal Sweep is Reminiscent of 1979 Revolution

Bronwen Maddox, The Times UK:

The decision by Iran’s novice President to recall 40 ambassadors — and to appoint an obscure new Oil Minister — is one of the most menacing moves he has made. In the three months since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office, he has done seven things which have rightly alarmed the rest of the world.

First, he restarted the processing of uranium ore in Isfahan. That broke an agreement to freeze this work with Britain, Germany, France and the IAEA, the United Nation’s nuclear watchdog.

Secondly, he delivered a provocative defence of Iran’s right to develop nuclear power at the UN in September.

Thirdly, he replaced Iran’s nuclear negotiating team.

Last week he called for Israel to be wiped off the map, a declaration greeted with international outrage and condemnation by the UN Security Council. Now he has axed half of Iran’s fleet of ambassadors, many in the most important postings, and known to be moderates or reformers. This week he has also appointed Sadeq Mahsouli as Oil Minister, despite his lack of oil experience.

Yesterday, Iran also announced that it would send a second batch of uranium ore to Isfahan for processing.

In one sense, of course, moving his country’s diplomats around the board looks the most superficial of all these actions. It is the prerogative of a new president. It doesn’t begin to compare in gravity to his wish for Israel’s annihilation.

But the intentions behind his language on Israel and the nuclear work were unclear. Some Western officials hoped that it might turn out to be posturing — the sop of nationalistic rhetoric, thrown to the ranks of the poor, impatient and unemployed who elected him and are expecting so much of him.

As Mayor of Tehran, he had been used to saying such things before anti-Western demonstrations. Perhaps he did not realise that as President, he could not indulge in the same language without furious response from abroad, they speculated.

His clean sweep of the diplomats — and the new nuclear work at Isfahan — now makes that wistful interpretation impossible. He cannot have been playing to his audience at home, as they surely could not care less who occupies the embassies in London or Washington. The move will have no resonance at home, except among Tehran’s political elite. But there, it will rightly be seen as a bombshell. It is a decision to harden the face which Iran presents to the world. READ MORE

He has removed those experienced diplomats and ministers who had struck up relationships with other countries. In picking new ones, he seems to value inexperience.

The brutal sweep of his clearout is reminiscent of the 1979 revolution. Are we now seeing a second revolution? Probably not. The youthfulness of Iran’s population, its contact with Europe and the US — all the reasons which have led the West to hope that Iran would become more liberal — are still there.

But Ahmadinejad clearly wants the world to know he doesn’t care what it thinks. It is surely no coincidence he has done this when the Bush Administration is at its lowest ebb. Whether his aggression proves to be Iran’s enduring new character depends on whether the clerics on the Governing Council — and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — decide to rein him in.

There are a few signs that they might. There are many in Iran who would be appalled at a return to pariah status just as it had begun to come in from the cold. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former President, is one.

The parliament might also try to block the Oil Minister appointment. Russia, normally a staunch ally, recoiled from the Israel comments.

But if this is optimism, it is of a very bleak kind — hoping that clerics represent the forces of moderation in Iran today.