Thursday, November 03, 2005

'Little Short of Lunacy'

Richard Beeston, The Times UK:
"President Ahmadinejad would see the purge of 40 ambassadors as the continuation of what he set out to do when he was elected: to root out anyone associated with either of the two previous presidents, who many regard as being reformist or at least pragmatic, and to replace them with his own appointments.

"It seems to anyone outside, however, to be a crazy undertaking.

"Iran has a large American force on its east and western sides, and it's pretty isolated in the international community. The indications are that at present the President doesn't care. READ MORE

"But he should care. What made him an electable politician was his ability to deliver on the big social issues. Iran has a very young population with high unemployment and the highest proportion of heroin addicts in the world.

"By his actions he has already made himself a lot of enemies in both the clergy and the political establishment. The President may soon find that his biggest problem is that unnecessarily if he picks fights with the international community he will give ammunition to these rivals, and it's hard to see how how will be able to sustain any momentum for domestic reform.

"He is making enemies fast. Members of the Embassy in London here were very unhappy that Mohammad Hossein Adeli was being dismissed. He was the first English speaker they have had in 27 years, he was urbane, New York-educated, and apparently on good terms with Jack Straw... he was the best representative Iran could have in the UK.

"Now he is being removed and it's not even clear that he is going to be replaced in what seems to be almost an act of vindictiveness.

"I don't know a diplomatic service in the world that can suddenly conjour up 40 replacement diplomats to represent their country. In Iran, at a time when it needs as many friends it can get, it's little short of lunacy.

"A lot of countries in the Middle East and beyond do not want Iran isolated. They too are unhappy with US foreign policy, and wanted to give the new Iranian President the benefit of the doubt. However, this sort of action and threats to 'wipe Israel off the map' make overtly supporting Iran much harder, if not impossible.

"The new Oil Minister is a classic example: today, the President has appointed an old friend from his time in the Republican Guard who has no experience or expertise in the country's most important industry.

"And the President doesn't seem to be in any hurry to put on the brakes. There are reports today that the Iranians are about to begin converting a fresh batch of uranium ore. In the current climate, that's suicidal.

"Iran is up before the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Authority) on November 24, and may face referral to the UN Security Council and from there and possible sanctions.

"But maybe this is what he is playing on. The President knows that the US is up to its neck in Iraq and Afghanistan and has absolutely no stomach for another military adventure. Tony Blair has also said no intention of invading Iran. Maybe the President thinks that he can get away with it.

"If that is the case, then it is a short-term strategy. America is still the most powerful country in the world and many other countries share concerns over Iran's nuclear programme."