Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [4/16/06 - 4/22/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.

• Reuters reported that new satellite imagery indicate Iran has expanded its uranium conversion site at Isfahan and reinforced its Natanz underground uranium enrichment plant against possible military strikes.
• YNet reported that while the world is expressing its concern over Iran's progress toward a bomb, the US Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte estimates Tehran will have a bomb within four to nine years.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran now claims it was conducting research and tests on the more sophisticated P-2 nuclear-enrichment centrifuge which could significantly speed the process of making fuel for bombs.
• The Guardian reported on the perm-5 plus one talks on Iran in Moscow and the as of Tuesday, Russia has maintained its opposition to sanctions against Iran.
• New Press reported that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned that Iran would "cut off the hand of any aggressor."
• MSNBC reported that President Bush said “all options are on the table” to prevent Iran from developing atomic weapons, but said he will continue to focus on the international diplomatic option. Plus an interactive look at Iran's nuclear facilities.
• Iran Press News reported that Iran's deputy director of Majles, angry at Russia's invitation of the 5 member countries of the U.N. Security Council to a meeting in Moscow said: "Our people will never forget the cruelty and exploitation of the Russians."
• Rooz Online reported that the Moscow talks with the Perm-5 are making Tehran jittery.
• Radio Free Europe reported that one of Iran's largest pro-reform student groups called for "a temporary suspension of all nuclear activities" and that "there are other rights, like human rights, which have a higher priority."
• Yahoo News reported that envoys from the five permanent Security Council members plus Germany discussed sanctions in Moscow against Iran over its nuclear program, but failed to reach agreement. But Russian demanded "urgent and constructive steps" from Tehran.
• Reuters reported that UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said: "We are working on the basis that Iran will not meet the proposals from the Security Council on the 30-day deadline."
• Reuters reported that Russia said it wanted no action against Iran before an April 28 U.N. deadline set for it to halt uranium enrichment. But Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns added: "we are not going to agree to any pause by Iran."
• Xinhua reported that Russia will still implement the contract to supply 30 Tor-M1 air defense systems to Iran in full. Tor-M1 is an all-weather air defense system to ensure effective protection from cruise missiles, guided bombs, warplanes, helicopters, and pilot less and remotely controlled attack aircraft.
• Forbes.com reported that French President Jacques Chirac said it was 'unacceptable' for Iran to have nuclear weapons, but he left the door open to resumed discussions with Tehran.
• Bloomberg reported that Tony Blair warned "At a point in time when the president of Iran is talking about wiping Israel off the face of the earth and when there are young people signing up to be suicide bombers, I do not think that this is the time to send a message of weakness."
• Yahoo News reported that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United States would use political, economic and other measures to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
• NewsMax.com reported that Sen. Joseph Lieberman said he would back a U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities if diplomatic options fail.
• Euronews reported that senior White House official Nicholas Burns said: "We heard last night, and again today, from individual countries, that all of those who spoke, and it was the great majority, are looking at sanctions."
• Reuters reported that European diplomats dismissed as unacceptable a suggestion that Iran take a brief "technical pause" from its nuclear enrichment activities in an attempt to revive collapsed negotiations with the EU.
• The Washington Post reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "All participants in the meeting agreed that urgent and constructive steps are demanded of Iran."
• MosNews reported that the chief of the Russian general staff said Russia’s military will not intervene on one side or the other, should the current Iran crisis lead to an armed conflict.
• Reuters reported that Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar called the prospect of the United States using force to halt Iran's nuclear program is empty talk.
• Eli Lake, New York Sun reported that Iranian Students are asking the regime to suspend its A-Bomb effort and focus on the more pressing needs of the Iranian people: human rights, international peace and the economy.
• The Times reported that Russia offered its most outspoken support yet of the controversial nuclear program in Iran. Sergei Kislyak, the Deputy Foreign Minister, said: "Our advice to our Iranian colleagues and friends is to complete work with the International Atomic Energy Authority and to calmly continue its nuclear energy program... and on this path we are ready to provide assistance to Iran."
• The New York Times reported that the Bush administration called for Russia and the countries of Europe to impose their own penalties on Iran.
• The Guardian reported that the United States pressed Russia to halt missile sales to Iran.
• The Washington Times, in an editorial, asked the question: Can Iran Be Deterred?
• Khaleej Times Online reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will disclose Iran’s decision on the United Nations Security Council deadline in a press conference on Monday.
• Reuters reported that Iran's ambassador to the U.N. nuclear watchdog said that Iran had a basic deal to enrich uranium in a joint venture in Russia.
• Boston.com reported that a top Kremlin diplomat warned against threatening Iran with sanctions or the use of force, saying that would only aggravate the international standoff.
  

Iranian regime threats.

• Chron.com reported that Iran's president said: "The global oil price has not reached its real value yet."
• World Tribune reported that IRGC Air Force commander Gen. Hosein Salami said: "Iran can block oil export whenever necessary."
• The Guardian reported that a Tehran-based group is trying to recruit Iranians and other Muslims in Britain to carry out suicide bombings against Israel, because of the relative ease with which UK passport-holders can enter Israel.
• MSNBC reported that Ahmadinejad said: “The increase of the oil price and growth of oil income is very good and we hope that the oil prices reach their real levels.”
• Sunday Times reported that Imad Mugniyeh, the Lebanese commander of Hezbollah’s overseas operations, has taken charge of plotting Iran’s retaliation against western targets should President George W Bush order a strike on Iranian nuclear sites.
• The Christian Science Monitor reported that rising tension between the West and Iran is coinciding with the emergence of a loose anti-Western alliance - Israel now dubs it an "axis of terror."
  

Iran's Dissidents.

• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that Iran's judiciary has summoned dissident leader Akbar Ganji back to Evin Prison, but so far Mr. Ganji has refused to obey the requests.
• Iran Press News reported that Iranian Dissidents are saying: "No! We do not want nuclear energy."
• Iran Press News reported that prison officials have threatened political prisoner, Valiollah-Fayz Mahdavi with execution should he communicate reports about the prison conditions.
• Iran Press News reported that Mansour Osanlou, director of the bus drivers union of greater Tehran, was transferred from solitary incarceration, after 4 months.
• Iran Press News reported that Iranian journalist Ejlal Ghavami will go on trial on April 22nd for insulting the leadership, taking action against national security, connection with various anti-regime fronts.
  

Iran's reformist movement is angry and worried.

• Rooz Online reported that members of the reformist Association of clergies, met with the Supreme Leader and called on him to take responsibility for the nuclear policies, which according to them sway from day to day.
• Rooz Online reported that Ahmadinejad has stepped into a new phase in its policy of suppressing independent news agencies and journalists.
• Rooz Online reported that while meeting with the Supreme Leader told teachers of Qom that the most important call of the day was to support president Ahmadinejad and the government, and that he expected the same from.
• Rooz Online reported that missing from Ahmadinejad's propaganda campaign about enriching uranium to levels useful for nuclear power generation, was Ali Larijani the highest official responsible for the nuclear issue.
• The Guardian reported that internal political divisions and economic weaknesses may present a bigger threat to the longevity of the Iranian government than an attack on its nuclear facilities.
  

The Unrest inside of Iran.

• SMCCDI reported that a mass execution at the infamous Evin jail located in North Tehran. 9 un-identified victims were executed in the facility in which tens of political activists are being held including several student activists. Several other executions are to take place, in the days ahead, to spread more fear among the population.
• Iran Press News reported that runaway girls and deserted women are being rounded up by the Islamic regime’s forces to unknown locations. Security forces had been warning them "leave the country or stay and die.”
• Iran Press News reported that the regime is organizing its own bogus international workers day ceremony in front of ex-U.S. embassy. Activists responded: "We women and men workers of Iran cannot be used by the Islamic regime for their propaganda."
• Iran Press News reported that the regime's agents stormed a party arresting 37 young women and men.
• The Guardian reported that Iran's Islamic authorities are preparing a crackdown on women flouting the stringent dress code in the clearest sign yet of social and political repression under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
• Korosh, The Price of Freedom, an Iranian blogger, reported on the increasing number of pro-democracy protests in Iran.
• SMCCDI reported that hundreds of Iranians used a soccer match to protest against the Islamic republic regime. Tens were seen injured or arrested.
  

Rumors of War.

• The Washington Times examined the question: "Is Iran Preparing for War?"
• USATODAY reported that the Pentagon is planning a war game in July so officials (including Congressmen) can explore options for a crisis involving Iran.
• The New York Times argued that the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Iran makes little sense.
• Independent reported that Tony Blair and Jack Straw at odds over US action in Iran.
• Asia Times Online reported that Iran's becoming a rallying point for anti-US sentiment in the Muslim world fits well with al-Qaeda and that all of the Muslim countries that side with the United States anticipate a US attack on Iran around October.
• World Tribune reported that Turkish sources said the Defense Department has discussed U.S. military access to several bases in Turkey. But Turkey's government denied the report. The U.S. embassy in Ankara said the story had "no factual basis."
  

Support for Internal Regime Change in Iran.

• The National Review in an editorial argued that the US should massively increase our pro-democracy broadcasts into Iran, and called for a major shift in direction in Voice of America's content.
• Newsweek reported that Bush administration officials are looking for a solution to America's new foreign-policy crisis with Iran by supporting people like "the Larry King of Iran."
• The Financial Times reported that the US and UK are working on a strategy to promote democratic change in Iran.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli President Moshe Katsav warned the people of Iran that their radical regime is leading them toward the abyss.
  

Are US Pro-Democracy efforts being undermined by the State Department Officials?

• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com argued that while Congress has budgeted $85 million for pro-democracy efforts in Iran, nearly $50 million has been tentatively ear-marked to expand the Voice of America and the Persian service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, both radios need to improve the quality of their broadcasts and, especially, their political content, before they deserve another dime. The rest of the money is being spent on a variety of programs led by former Tehran regime officials, student leaders, and U.S. academics who believe the Tehran regime can be reformed, but does not need to be changed.
  

Iran's economy in serious trouble.

• Iran Press News reported that Iran's brick making factories are closing rapidly with only 5 of 150 left due to stagnancy in construction in big cities such as Tehran leaving more that ten thousand unemployed.
• Iran Press News reported that for the second time in a week protesting workers from 4 textile factories blocked the transit road between the cities of Kashan and Bandar Abbass.
• Rooz Online reported that fear of war in Iran has lead to a demand for gold and the Central Bank of Iran has been unable to control the demand.
• Iran Press News reported that while Iran is spending million funding Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the latest statistics on poverty in Iran show poverty is increasing.
• The Financial Times reported that with the war of words over Iran’s nuclear programme escalating and the domestic economy stalling, Iranians are scrambling to buy gold coins.
  

Iran's Troublemaking in Iraq.

• Radio Free Europe reported claims that Iranian forces shelled Iranian Kurdish guerrilla positions inside Northern Iraq.
  

Iran's Troublemaking in Israel.

• 620ktar.com reported that Islamic Jihad, backed by Iran and Syria, claimed responsibility for Monday's suicide attack in Tel Aviv. Islamic Jihad is led by Ramadan Shallah considers the 1979 Iranian Revolution to be the beginning of a new era for the Muslim world.
• The Times reported that it is no coincidence that this suicide bombing comes after renewed calls by Iran’s President for the destruction of Israel and after Iran offered to step in to fund the Hamas Government.
• Reuters reported that many Iranians are happy with the regime's gift of $50 million to the Hamas led Palestinian government. They want the regime to focus on their needs.
  

US/Iran talks on hold?

• The Washington Post reported that GOP Sen. Richard Lugar, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that direct talks between the US and Iran "would be useful." Iranian dissidents already fear the US will sell them out. And some wonder why the Iranians haven’t risen up against their oppressive regime?
• Rooz Online reported that a hard-line news agency claimed that Mohammad Javad Larijani has been nominated to lead Iran’s talks with the US. M.J. Larijani is the brother of the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council who has been leading the nuclear talks.
  

Iran and the International community.

• Yahoo News reported that Iran announced that it was giving 50 million dollars in aid to the cash-strapped Hamas-led Palestinian government.
• Xinhua reported that former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said he was certain Gulf Arab states will not support any U.S. strike on Iran.
• Iran Press News reported that Iran plans to guarantee a loan to Cuba for the development of exporting technical services.
• The Washington Post reported that Iran intends to replace some 60 ambassadors this year.
• Times of India reported that India's PM Manmohan Singh unequivocally told a delegation of Muslim leaders that Tehran's nuclear ambitions were not in India's interest.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged Iran as well as Syria to cooperate in trying to restore Lebanon's political independence and disarm militias.
• The American Foreign Policy Council published a table of Iran's leading trading partners.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russia began delivering advanced antiaircraft missiles to Belarus and he denied a report that the weaponry was destined for Iran.
• The New York Times reported that Iran, India and Pakistan are close to signing a gas pipeline deal, defying U.S. opposition to the project.
  

US Congress.

• Jim Geraghty, The National Reviewexamined Harry Reid's call for diplomatic recognition of Iran.
  

How did Iranian nuclear negotiator get to Washington and who is he meeting with?

• The New York Times reported that the State Department confirmed that Mohammad Nahavandian, an aide to the top Iranian nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, was in Washington. But Sean McCormack, the department spokesman, said, "He's not here for meetings with U.S. government officials, to my knowledge."
• Reuters added that State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said "We have no record of issuing a visa to a person with this name."
• The Guardian reported that the US reaffirmed that it is refusing to discuss Iran's nuclear plans in face-to-face talks on Iraq.
  

Must Read reports.

• Mark Steyn, Chicago Sun-Times argued that our policy on Iran Nukes seems to be off-target.
  
• Richard Clarke, The New York Times argued that bombing Iran will backfire on the US.
• AsiaTimes reported that Iran will become full member of China and Russia's "Shanghai Cooperation Organization." The SCO's enlargement move would frustrate the entire US strategy in the region. The SCO is a security organization which will provide Iran with access to technology, increased investment and trade.
• CBS News reported that Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah of Iran says "This regime is not trying to avoid confrontation, on the contrary; it needs confrontation in order to survive."
• The Washington Post reported that the Iranian government has intensified efforts to illegally obtain weapons technology from the United States.
• Rooz Online reported that Ayatollah Ali Meshkini, the head of Iran’s Experts Assembly on Leadership which is responsible for choosing a new leader, is in coma. Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi is said to have ambitions to head the Assembly.
• Haaretz reported that Republican Senator Norm Coleman is calling on the United States to withhold funds from the UN Disarmament Commission over Iran's election as vice chairman.
• New York Post reported that last week the U.N. Commission on Disarmament elevated Iran to the vice-chairman post and his first act was to demand that Israel sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and open all of its nuclear sites to international inspection.
• Thomas Joscelyn, The Weekly Standard challenged a recent statement by former National Security Council staffers Richard Clarke and Steven Simon that the U.S. intelligence community scared Iran out of the terrorist game.
• Alan Peters, AntiMullah.com argued that a limited strike on Iran would not bring down the regime and that what is required is to eliminate the most radical elements of the Iranian regime. A must read.
  

The Experts.

• Amir Taheri, The Telegraph revealed the frightening truth of why Iran wants a bomb. Hint: ever heard of a "clash of civilizations?"
• Amir Taheri, The New York Post argued that the European trio and Washington described Iran's announcement that it has now joined "the nuclear club" as "unacceptable." But warned that when you say that something is "unacceptable," you have already accepted it as a reality.
• Center for Strategic & International Studies published a new study analyzing the different options to deal with a nuclear armed Iran.
• Center for Strategic & International Studies also published a report on Iran's nuclear ambitions and how the situation will affect U.S.-Turkish relations.
• Edward N. Luttwak, Commentary published three reasons not to bomb Iran, Yet. An excellent read.
• The Claremont Institute asked seven leading thinkers to reflect on our political and military options in eliminating Iran's nuclear capability.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat reported that Ahmadinejad's tactical successes could lead to a strategic disaster for Iran.
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• Nazanin, MySpace, born in Tehran, is a former Miss Canada, singer and songwriter and has produced a song: Someday (The Revolution Song). Listen here.
• Cox & Forkum published another of their great cartoons: Crasher.
• A Photo of a defiant Iranian wearing the US flag.
  

The Quote of the Week.

CBS News reported that Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah of Iran said:

"This regime is not trying to avoid confrontation, on the contrary; it needs confrontation in order to survive."

Tags: iran, news, iraq, nuclear

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 4.23.2006:

Surgical strikes won't stop Iran.

• Alan Peters, AntiMullah.com argued that a limited strike on Iran would not bring down the regime and that what is required is to eliminate the most radical elements of the Iranian regime. A must read.

Iran assigns its master terrorist to plan attack on the west.

• Sunday Times reported that Imad Mugniyeh, the Lebanese commander of Hezbollah’s overseas operations, has taken charge of plotting Iran’s retaliation against western targets should President George W Bush order a strike on Iranian nuclear sites.

Ahmadinejad to announce Iran's decision on UNSC nuclear deadline, Monday.

• Khaleej Times Online reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will disclose Iran’s decision on the United Nations Security Council deadline in a press conference on Monday.

Iran claims to have a "basic" deal with Russia.

• Reuters reported that Iran's ambassador to the U.N. nuclear watchdog said that Iran had a basic deal to enrich uranium in a joint venture in Russia.
• Boston.com reported that a top Kremlin diplomat warned against threatening Iran with sanctions or the use of force, saying that would only aggravate the international standoff.

US seeks military bases in Turkey for an Iranian attack?

• World Tribune reported that Turkish sources said the Defense Department has discussed U.S. military access to several bases in Turkey. But Turkey's government denied the report. The U.S. embassy in Ankara said the story had "no factual basis."

More unrest inside of Iran.

• Korosh, The Price of Freedom, an Iranian blogger, reported on the increasing number of pro-democracy protests in Iran.
• SMCCDI reported that hundreds of Iranians used a soccer match to protest against the Islamic republic regime. Tens were seen injured or arrested.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russia began delivering advanced antiaircraft missiles to Belarus and he denied a report that the weaponry was destined for Iran.
• The New York Times reported that Iran, India and Pakistan are close to signing a gas pipeline deal, defying U.S. opposition to the project.
• The Christian Science Monitor reported that rising tension between the West and Iran is coinciding with the emergence of a loose anti-Western alliance - Israel now dubs it an "axis of terror."

Iran - A Justified Final Solution

Alan Peters, AntiMullah.com:

PROLOGUE: Military Tactical, Strategic and Intel analysts fall down the same chute that Politicians seem to slide into. An almost total lack of real life assessment capability of Iranian mentality.

Most scenarios and opinions appear to be formed, even by the supposed "experts", on their contact with Iranians of various kinds, mostly those living abroad and as ex-pats offering a "skin deep" mis-perception of who the Joe Six Pack Iranian really is.

Or use the "skin" layer covering of the Iranian populace presented by those inside Iran, who have the ability to communicate with the outside world. Probably as little as 3% of the nation.

This thin covering layer of intellectuals, students and mostly outdated politicians going back to the Mossadegh era, with some to the monarchy, have no role to play at this point. Other than mind games.

Thrashed, killed, discouraged and rendered impotent over a quarter century of violent suppression, they only have philosophical and academic energy to contribute to a regime change.

They can neither muster forces to fight the neo-Islamic regime of Ahmadi-Nejad, intensely populated by Revolutionary Guards in all executive positions, nor be active in any kind of regime change till their freedom of speech is restored without fear of violent and deadly retribution.

Beneath that skin is a very different flesh, blood and guts that is virtually ignored, thus throwing off analysis and skewing decisions. This distortion becomes aggravated as Arabists, with openly pro-Mullah lobbyists advising them, instead of anti-mullah Iranians, are charged with making policy and Iraq situations are used to provide givens that do not fit the Iranian landscape.

Instead of basing concepts on input from the thin layer with which we come into contact in the West, including a limited profile of those inside Iran, poll the 400,000 street kids who live in cardboard boxes.

The hundreds of thousands of workers who have not been paid in months, sometimes nearly a year.

Those who will be arrested and abused as the crackdown on un-Islamic dress code becomes an excuse to arrest and abuse girls and women.

And those who, come September, will face rationing of gasoline for their vehicles and will often be unable to get to work at all or obtain food and daily necessities.

Again, only some 2% of the population of 70 million inside Iran are among these, who can make themselves heard to the analysts and tacticians. And distort reality the flows beneath that.

An all day, live poll by an Iranian TV station, Channel One, in Los Angeles, where call-ins were accepted from inside Iran, usually from cell phones, provided a response of at least 50% of callers stating openly they would welcome USA bombing raids, even if civilians died in the process. As long as it removed the Mullahs.

What follows may read like a bizarre, politically incorrect, war-mongering treatise. But then you, personally, did not fail to face down Hitler politically; probably did not endure his concentration camps; fight his storm troopers; nor were among the millions, no, tens of millions of dead in World War II. Neither did I but that's not the point. READ MORE

Deaths that occurred exactly for the same reasons we had then, we use again to avoid seriously opposing Ahmadi-Nejad and his Hojatieh neo-Islamic Iran. As a result, not simply risking but blithely inviting a repeat in spades of what went wrong last time we had a global threat, where we tried so hard to avoid confrontation.

Negotiate, appease, and procrastinate with an enemy who needs a Hiroshima, Nagasaki response to blow out his war candle - in concept - rather than by a real nuclear explosion.

We diddle while the world burns - or is about to. Trying to stay within accepted political parameters of the impractical, corrupt United Nations, which appointed Iran to the Vice-Chairmanship of the UN Disarmament Committee, a wishy-washy European Union and trying to achieve common goals with Russia and China – we thus try to do the impossible to escape adopting the real life, only practical solution.

None of the reasons touted to prevent firm and perhaps brutal action against Iran, based on political or humanitarian correctness, are supposed to be a global suicide pact, which increasingly becomes the most likely result from our lack of decisiveness.

And leads to the question of which "innocent" lives are we supposed to save and protect?

Those trapped inside a country of a brutal and heartless Islamic regime, hell-bent on destroying the West and imposing a monolithic, Islamic Caliphate dictate on the world?

Or avoid collateral damage – probably around 20,000 civilians, during attacks on some 400,000 targeted MILLITARY people at 5,000 locations – but allow the tens of millions to perish if we do not "sandblast" Iran to clean it for a saner future administration.

If only our world leaders had shown guts, confronted Hitler, and stopped him a tiny bit earlier before he really got going.

Will we be moaning a similar refrain about Ahmadi-Nejad and his atomic or oil weapons and apocalyptic religious beliefs in a decade or so? After the fall of our civilized world to senseless destruction he promises with every breath?

Or do we resolve to kill nearly half a million Iranian military and paramilitary personnel – not civilians - to save millions of others – both inside Iran and around the world?

Do we need to destroy that many? Do we kow-tow to bleeding hearts who cannot see further than the tip of their noses and to vested interests or do we, like surgeons, take out the scalpel and excise the deadly cancer that has pervaded the global body's health?

This "total" excision requires the destruction of every, I mean every, military site, barrack, piece of equipment, even trucks and small arms in one massive, conventional weapon, bombing campaign. Night and day until every objective and every elite Pasdar, Basiji, Ghods Brigade and similar core unit ceases to exists.

A run at nuclear sites to bury or destroy them, again with deep penetration conventional weapons, would round out the attack yet becomes almost secondary as a prime objective. Without the players in place, the nukes become less consequential.

Within some weeks of intensive, non-nuclear bombing and continued air support to mop up and "keep the peace", we would have wiped out the fanatical core of the Iranian "military" – personnel, weapons and equipment.

But no Mullahs? Without inserting troops into Iran? Pretty much so. At that point, the populace will take care of the Mullahs.

Without their repressive "military and para-military" bodyguards to defend them, the Mullahs will fall prey to the people of Iran they have abused for so long. Revenge will take place on a neighborhood level and on a national scale.

Resentments against those who have enslaved, tormented, tortured and killed will suddenly find free reign to exact retribution for past wrongs. Down to little villages where the clerics have raped, killed, corrupted and executed at will for over a quarter century.

The uprising of the people, something so many people wish to promote, will, for the first time, be pragmatically possible without fear from the Mullahs and their henchmen. For the first time, the populace can then speak freely without being repressed.

No, the populace will not hate America as apologists and pro-Mullah adherents espouse to prevent an attack!

Will they rise up? Give me a university street corner, megaphone and ten minutes to harangue them after their fears abate and see. (Obviously, I speak Farsi).

Clearly radio broadcasts and TV stations (not the insipid Voice of America and similar ones hogging regime change budgets) from outside the country, some which connect to people by cell-phone as they often do now in Los Angeles (Channel One), for example, and conducted the recent poll, would be more effective in mobilizing the masses than my single megaphone. Same easy principle of dry tinder and a spark, though.

This myth of "hating the USA if attacked", falsely based on Western mentality and mindsets, plus pro-regime apologists and some well-wishers with families in Iran, unable to see into the future if we fail to act, totally ignores the Joe Six Pack, Persian thought process.

Unwilling to shed blood themselves, more gentle in nature than commonly perceived, the man in the street of Iran, chafing under the boot of the Mullahs will not openly or publicly support the death of fellow Iranians – as a whole – but will not hate whoever takes out their hated ones – the Mullahs and their Pasdars, Basijis etc.

Families of those grieving for their lost relatives in the military will have to consider their neighbors, too. They will be concerned for their own safety and well-being at the hands of their fellow compatriots so will not rise up as a resistance against anyone. Specially with a prospect of a better life dangling before them.

In any event, do the math. With an average of four to a family, times 400,000 becomes about 1.5 million potential "opponents". Say even two million people angered by the direct pain they have suffered. They are, however, mourners not combatants. They are not fighting for the survival or retrieval of their political beliefs as in Iraq.

On the other side of the scales are the millions whose pain has ceased or diminished and after vengeance against the clerics has been wreaked by them, will be ready and grateful for a new beginning. Chaotic though it may be at first.

Who fills the consequent administrative void? To get into detail here requires a lengthier article than even this one. But conceptually the answer is straightforward enough.

An "Iranian" coalition "government" or NGO of any kind set up in exile in advance, will move in with aid and succor and nominally assume administrative functions. Perhaps with some limited Western coalition troops for initial protection.

There is already work being done to putting into place a nationwide network of volunteers inside Iran (details being withheld on purpose) to allow a neighborhood by neighborhood set of Assistance Committees to take over and provide some formal local nucleus all over the country.

In the Khomeini revolution, after the fall of the Shah's government, the only remaining national network was the thousands of mosques. This factor alone snatched the revolution from the Marxist-Islamists and Communists and dropped it into the outstretched hands of the Mullahs.

The aftermath should definitely not be managed by the United Nations, which recently officially elected Iran to a vice-chair disarmament committee membership.

Again, Iranians respect strength and with the Mullahs "gone" (mostly dead by the hands of Iranians), though demanding the world in aid and food and shelter will not attack as did insurgents in Iraq.

The final nail in the coffin of the late Shah was when he was persuaded by liberals like Ehsan Naraghi to speak to the people and tell them he "got their message" when they thronged in the streets against him at the behest of Khomeini and pro-Soviet agitators.

The social infrastructure in Iran in no way resembles the situation in pre-war or post-war Iraq. An insurgency, after such a massive destruction of the Pasdars etc., will not fall on fertile mental soil. Specially with the insurgents in Iraq killing Iraqis proving a lesson and example for Iranians of what not to support.

Will there be negative considerations? Yes.

Outwardly, while breathing a sigh of relief, privately and secretly also admiring the strength and USA resolution, Arab nations will spew verbal criticism.

Liberal do-gooders and mainstream media will berate the world for saving them from what neo-Iran would have unleashed, never understanding the scope of it.

The Kennedy and John Kerry clan and the Bush haters will all criticize those who end up saving their hides and their continued freedom to spew nonsense without fear of lashings and execution.

Hamas and Hezbollah will send out suicide missions against Israel.

While not so minor to the Israelis, on a global scale their problem is comparatively small, could be controlled, if need be, by sending some 20,000 troops to Israel to help out - instead of trying to send some 500,000 troops needed to invade and control Iran.

As long as Iranian military infrastructure is close to intact or only partially destroyed, the populace will remain fearful of lashing out in deserved revenge and thus negate the desired result of their rising up.

There might be a spate of suicide bombers in Europe or inside the USA but none of this will be more than a drop in the ocean compared to what will happen in the next decade if we do not conduct such a bombing "sandblast".

And might well happen anyway even if we "defuse" Iran. We still have other enemies to face who use these tactics.

Though recently denying any such thought or intention, Russia sending in troops to protect their 40,000 consultants in Iran might be the only serious problem to resolve in advance.

By the time that could effectively happen, the bombing would be "over" and the situation no longer to their advantage for inserting troops. Withdrawing their consultants to the safety of nearby countries would prove easier.

The total destruction of the 400,000 military elite units' personnel – as opposed to the regular Iranian forces, who have much less devotion to the Mullahs – is the essential and key ingredient to success.

There will be chaos within Iran as the pieces have to be picked up. There will be opposing factions fighting for power but it will no longer be crazy religious leaders dictating matters with impunity to an enslaved and cowering nation and a naïve, hapless world.

And the world as a whole will be a safer place for everyone, even for the remaining Jihadists in many countries or timorous French politicians or dithering British Foreign Ministers like Jack Straw.

And oil? Oil will be what oil will be. With or without Ahmadi-Nejad we will face oil problems, only harsher ones if he and his ilk remain in charge with oil as a weapon. This, too is the subject of another long article at another time.

FURTHER COMMENTS AND JUSTIFICATION

Jack Straw has been accused (rightly so) of playing both sides against the middle, yet he is simply treading water till we and the UK can figure out what the heck we are doing, can do or will do in the face of the MSM in both countries, our weak-kneed politicians and the Russian and Chinese attitudes.

Meanwhile the only one with the guts to really do anything - our own USA President - has to deal with the dilemma the Islamic regime finds delightful and flaunts as reasons why the USA will never attack Iran militarily.

Bush's choice is really quite simple.

Does he sacrifice the world's long term best interests for the Republican party's November re-election considerations or does he ignore national politics and do what has to be done while he still can.

Losing either or both houses will hobble him with legislative and budget opposition, so now may be the only clear time he has to do something forceful.

While some may disagree with this article as being too drastic, I have twisted, turned and cogitated to find anything else that will work - both inside Iran and for the world - that has fewer deaths or casualties as a result.

Estimated collateral damage might go as high as 30,000 non-combatant Iranians from the bombing but how many will die around the world and continue to die inside Iran if we do not do something drastic?

The neo-regime of Ahmadi-Nejad has already started to execute prisoners by the dozens in the last couple of weeks. The Ayatollahs killed some 30,000 back in 1988/89 so why think Ahmadi-Nejad and the Revolutionary Guard will have qualms now to not duplicate that number?

They are "cleaning up" the streets by gathering up and exporting homeless street girls and deserted women, selling them to the Gulf sheikhdoms as sex toys or "indentured servants" (slaves) with the Morals Police, in charge of the clean up, pocketing the proceeds.

Selected ones are kept to populate secret brothels owned and run by prominent and second level Mullahs.

Meanwhile, as of this Saturday, - as they did in the early days of Khomeini - they are once again roaming the streets and arresting pretty ones for "un-Islamic dress code".

These victims frequently end up being forced to have sex with their captors to be released. Having sex often takes the form of several nights of gang rape by various shifts of the jailers.

Used and dishonored they are freed, with many committing suicide. Just as they did when the non-Iranian Khomeini first invaded Iran. He never had a drop of Iranian blood in his veins from neither his mother nor father.

To round out their imposition of harsh conditions and increase the number of excuses to cow the populace, Iran has ordered the Morals Police to also accost anyone walking a dog in public or seen with a cat in their arms. Or any pets. Any loud noise (specially music) will be met with arrest. Decorating your vehicle will now also make you liable for arrest by the Morals Police. Virtually anything other than total submission to the desires of the fanatical Amadi-Nejad version of Islam will receive immediate retribution.

To implement the new regulations, he has launched 50 men and 50 women in black uniforms (remember Hilter's SS?) in special Mercedes cars to patrol the streets of Tehran and look for and deal with this kind of sinful behavior.

There are an estimated 400,000 homeless, desperate women and pre-teen children living in cardboard boxes in the capital city of Tehran alone, trying to survive by prostituting themselves and selling drugs for the local Mullahs.

Incidentally, most of the younger boys also suffer the fate of their female counterparts in this slave trade.

Add to this the countless students and young men and women who cannot find a job and desperately enter the same fields of illegal endeavour to stay off the streets and live with their families, where breadwinners have often not been paid at their jobs for nearly a year.

Apart from the obvious nuclear and oil threats, does none of this qualify the Islamic regime for brutal reprisal? Would the liberal MSM not be screaming holy murder if a tiny fraction of this was going on in their own respective countries?

Our only hope might actually be Bush's low poll ratings. He has little or nothing to lose if he steps on the side of the best interests of the world - including all of us - and the American population - if doing so. Other than seats in the two houses.

A one fell swoop success in ridding Iran of the Mullahs as described here, might quite to the contrary, become his redeeming action to restore his ratings and provide him with an honored place in history.

Iran’s president recruits terror master

Sarah Baxter and Uzi Mahnaimi, Sunday Times: Plot for revenge attacks on West

IRAN’S president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, attended a meeting in Syria earlier this year with one of the world’s most wanted terrorists, according to intelligence experts and a former national security official in Washington.

US officials and Israel intelligence sources believe Imad Mugniyeh, the Lebanese commander of Hezbollah’s overseas operations, has taken charge of plotting Iran’s retaliation against western targets should President George W Bush order a strike on Iranian nuclear sites. READ MORE

Mugniyeh is on the FBI’s “Most Wanted Terrorists” list for his role in a series of high-profile attacks against the West, including the 1985 hijacking of a TWA jet and murder of one of its passengers, a US navy diver.

Now in his mid-forties, Mugniyeh is reported to have travelled with Ahmadinejad in January this year from Tehran to Damascus, where the Iranian president met leaders of Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

The meeting has been dubbed a “terror summit” because of the presence of so many groups behind attacks on Israel, which Ahmadinejad has threatened to wipe from the map.

Jane’s Intelligence Review cited “reports in recent weeks” of Mugniyeh’s presence alongside the president.

Michael Ledeen, a Middle East expert and former Pentagon and National Security Council official who wrote that Mugniyeh had “probably” been there, said last week senior American officials had confirmed it.

“It’s hard to identify Mugniyeh because he is said to have changed his face and his fingerprints,” Ledeen said. “But senior government officials have told me I was right. He was there.”

Shortly after the Damascus summit Henry Crumpton, head of counter-terrorism at the state department, singled out the elusive Mugniyeh as a threat. The Iranians, Crumpton said, “have complete command and control of Hezbollah. Imad Mugniyeh works for Tehran. And you can’t talk about Hezbollah and not think about Iran. They really are part and parcel of the same problem.”

Mugniyeh lives in Iran and has evaded capture for more than 20 years, despite a $5m American bounty on his head. Western intelligence reports claim he has many connections to terrorist cells in Europe, Africa, Latin America and the US and he is said to have met Osama Bin Laden.

“When and if the Iranians decide to hit the West in its soft belly, Imad will be the one to act,” a western intelligence source said last week.

An Israeli defence source claimed Mugniyeh was in regular touch with the new Iranian intelligence minister, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ezhei. The minister is a long-time confidant of Ahmadinejad and was appointed by him.

“We know that Mohseni Ezhei holds routine meetings with Mugniyeh, who is today Iran’s head of overseas operations,” said the Israeli defence source. “Since we know from previous Iranian terror attacks that it takes about a year to plan a substantial one, we should not be surprised if operations against western targets are already in high gear and Mugniyeh is certainly playing a major role.”

The young Mugniyeh first attracted the attention of the West when he was involved in the kidnapping, torture and mutilation of William Buckley, the CIA station chief in Beirut, in 1984. He kept his victim at the Sheikh Abdullah camp in the Lebanese Bekaa valley and was allegedly the last person Buckley saw before he died.

“Imad had good reason to retaliate,” said a well-informed source. “A car bomb killed his brother Jihad, who had taken Imad’s old job as bodyguard to Hezbollah’s spiritual leader.” Mugniyeh blamed the CIA, and Buckley was chosen to pay the price.

The kidnapping led to the Iran-contra affair, one of the most embarrassing episodes of the Reagan presidency, in which arms were swapped for hostages. But by the time the Americans were negotiating with the Iranians, Buckley was already dead.

Mugniyeh has also been linked to the demolition of the American embassy and marine barracks in Beirut in 1983 and is wanted in Argentina for his role in recruiting the bombers of the Israeli embassy and Jewish centre in Buenos Aires in the early 1990s.

Mugniyeh left Lebanon for Iran in 1994 with his wife and son after an assassination attempt. He is since believed to have played an active role in fomenting trouble in Iraq. Ledeen described him last week as the “spinal column of the terror war against America in Iraq from the beginning”.

According to Robert Baer, a former CIA agent who pursued Mugniyeh in the 1980s, “he is the most dangerous terrorist we have ever faced. Mugniyeh is probably the most intelligent, most capable operative we have ever run across, including the KGB or anybody else.

“He enters by one door, exits by another, changes his cars daily, never makes appointments by telephone — he is never predictable. He is the master terrorist, the grail we have been after since 1983”.

• Elite Iranian army officers who arrived in south Lebanon this month have taken command of thousands of rockets aimed at cities across Israel. They are believed to have been given control of the missiles by Hezbollah to deter possible Israeli attacks against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Soccer game leads to protest in Iranian Capital

SMCCDI (Information Service):

Hundreds of Iranians used the occasion, offered by the match played between Bargh e Shiraz and Esteghlal (former Taj) soccer teams, in order to protest against the Islamic republic regime. The local game took place yesterday at the "Azadi" ('Freedom') stadium of Tehran.

Slogans were shouted and street clashes took place in the Azadi, Karaj and Enghelab areas as security forces attacked the protesters. Dozens of security patrol cars and buses were damaged in retaliation to the brutality of Islamist Militiamen.

Tens were seen injured or arrested at the issue of the unrest. READ MORE

Iranians are seizing the mass presence opportunity offered by soccer games or big events in order to protest and express their rejection of the Islamic regime. In that line, Iran was the scene of consecutive and massive protest actions, during the 2002 World Cup soccer qualification games but the trend was stopped by the believed forced loss of Iran to Bahrain. Since then, important soccer games have been often turned into popular protests, especially when they're played in Tehran.

Most opposition groups, such as SMCCDI and the Iran National Secular Party (INSP), and underground networks have planned massive popular protest actions, both inside and abroad Iran, at the occasion of the upcoming 2006 World Cup games in Germany. Iran's first game is scheduled for June 11th against Mexico and Its other first round games are against Portugal, on June 17th, and against Angola on June 21st.

SMCCDI is known for its importnat role in the promotion of Football (Soccer) Protests and especially in the coordination of last World Cup Soccer qualification games' riots. It constantly mobilized the masses via the intense use of digital technology, such as the Internet and satellite TV, as well as, help from some friendly Persian speaking radio stations abroad who were offering airtime for consecutive interviews and transmitting the Movement's calls:

http://www.daneshjoo.org/article/publish/article_486.shtml
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Iran Launches Major Operation Against PKK

Cihan, Istanbul, Zaman.com:

Iranian security forces killed 10 members of Pejak, which is affiliated with the PKK (Kurdish Workers’ Party) terror organization, in a major anti-terror operation.

According to the reports, Iranian forces are conducting large scale operations near the Turkish and Iraqi borders after the PKK terrorists wintering in northern Iraq began to infiltrate the border with Turkey and Iran.

Some 10,000 Iranian forces are taking part in the operation. 10 PKK terrorists were killed while six Iranian security forces lost their lives in the clashes. Several PKK terrorists were injured in the clashes.

The Iranian operation coincides with major Turkish anti-terror operations near the Iraqi border. Turkish security forces, backed by helicopters, are carrying out operations against PKK terrorists in the region near Iraqi border. More than 35 PKK terrorists have been killed recently in the region.

Increasing number of pro-democracy protests in Iran

Korosh, The Price of Freedom: an Iranian blogger

For someone in the west to hear some of the reasons that the students in Iran are protesting might sound really unbelievable that the students in Iran are not enjoying the most fundamental right of every human being and in this case students the following are some fo there examples:

The reasons that the Rajae university student first raise up was for segregation in the school by government officials!

Insulting behavior by them!

Lack of free news paper and funding for the students!

Click Here to Read the rest of their Demands

Alama University students raise up because the university officials fired a professor (for his political views) and they were against this discrimination of the university officials against this professors political views (which was pro democratic).

Sharif University rose up because the Islamic supported militia forces also known as Basij were trying to bury a dead body in which they claimed was one of the war heroes back in Iran and Iraq war and this also raise up the complain of the family member of the person as they call it so they are trying to turn the university a place to study and to do research into cemetery! So the students raise up against this plan of the government to abuse those people for their political purposes.

Yes this sound hilarious to people and that is why the students in Sharif university not only were shocked by the news but were insulted by it because this was a plan to turn the university to a place were the Islamic Extremes would rally their support for the regime! READ MORE

Keeping in mind that the vast majority of the Iranian are against this back ward ideological regime which is forcibly trying to impose the Islamic laws and Arab culture on Iranian who by the way despite many people’s knowledge are not Arab and are Persians and there is a great different since Persians have a great and rich history but now its been take hostage by a foreign ideology which has came from Arabs even though Persians were among the first people who believed in God in Zoroastrian religion which was the first monotheistic religion in the world.

And by the way the first declaration of human rights came from Persian
Where the worse case of human right abuse is taking place!

Russia Warns Against Pressuring Iran

Steve Gutterman, Boston.com:

A top Kremlin diplomat warned against threatening Iran with sanctions or the use of force, saying that would only aggravate the international standoff over Tehran's suspect nuclear program, Russian media reports said Saturday. READ MORE

Rather than getting Iran to stop uranium enrichment, a tougher stance could result in Tehran's total refusal to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, said Oleg Ozerov, deputy director of the Foreign Ministry's Middle East and North Africa Department, according to ITAR-Tass.

"We firmly stand today for resolving the problems in and around Tehran diplomatically rather than militarily. Increasing international pressure on Iran has no prospects," Ozerov was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency.

The United States and European allies are pushing for sanctions because of Iran's refusal to suspend its enrichment program, as demanded by the U.N. Security Council. They suspect Iran is trying to develop atomic weapons in violation of its treaty commitments.

The Iranian regime insists the program has only the peaceful purpose of generating electricity. Russia, which has close ties with Iran and is building that nation's first nuclear power plant, opposes sanctions.

Despite what U.S. and Russian officials have described as increasingly close positions on the Iranian nuclear program in recent years, they appear far apart heading into the Friday deadline set by the Security Council for Iran to stop enrichment.

The United States and Britain say that if Iran doesn't meet the deadline, they will try to get the council to make the demand compulsory, which would raise the possibility of sanctions.

Seeking to avoid having the sanctions issue come before the council, Russian officials argue that the International Atomic Energy Agency should take the lead for the United Nations in trying to resolve tensions over Iran's nuclear program.

Ozerov stressed Russia's opposition to the use of force against Iran -- an issue that got close attention in state-run Russian media after President Bush said last week that military action could not be ruled out.

"The forceful option is extremely dangerous and not constructive," ITAR-Tass quoted Ozerov as saying during a seminar on global security.

The report added that Ozerov also warned Iran against making belligerent statements.

Moscow has been frustrated by Tehran's uncooperative attitude, and ITAR-Tass said Ozerov expressed regret over the failure to reach a final agreement with Iran on a compromise proposal to have the Iranian uranium enrichment program operate on Russian territory.

The two nations announced a "basic agreement" in February on implementing the plan, which would allow closer international monitoring of Iranian enrichment program -- which can produce both fuel for power-generating nuclear reactors and the core material for atomic bombs.

Iran is prepared for more talks on the Russian proposal, Iran's IAEA envoy said in Moscow on Friday. But Ali Asghar Soltanieh stressed that the details were unresolved and needed much more discussion.

Iranian officials already undercut the intent of Russia's plan by insisting that they would continue some enrichment work at home.

Belarus: Russian Antiaircraft Missiles for Iran?

Dow Jones Newswires:

Russia began delivering advanced antiaircraft missiles to Belarus Friday, the Belarussian defense minister said, and he denied a report that the weaponry was destined for Iran.

Russia and Belarus signed an agreement last year on the delivery of the latest, most advanced version of Russia's S-300SP surface-to-air missile system, capable of shooting down targets some 150 kilometers away.

U.K. defense journal Jane's Intelligence Digest, meanwhile, reported in a recent edition that Belarus had agreed to transfer the S-300SP missiles to Iran in order to help it bolster its defenses against any possible U.S. or Israeli air strikes designed to derail what many in the West allege are its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. READ MORE

The report said the agreement had been reached in January when a high-level military and political delegation from Tehran paid a low-key visit to Minsk. The journal said Moscow had chosen an indirect way of supplying the missiles to allow it to avoid tarnishing its international reputation.

Russia has already agreed to supply sophisticated Tor-M1 air defense missile systems to Iran.

"I have no intention of commenting on this nonsense," Defense Minister Leonid Maltsev told reporters in Minsk. "Under the contract for the delivery of the S-300s from Russia, Belarus does not have the right to transfer these systems anywhere else."

Iranian Commerce Minister Masud Mir-Kazemi, who headed a trade delegation that traveled to Minsk, also denied that Tehran wanted to acquire the Russian S-300 missiles.

"The question of deliveries of S-300 systems wasn't discussed. From the viewpoint of military technology, we are self-sufficient and there is no need for us to consider buying weapons abroad," he told reporters.

The Iranian minister said he had not met Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, who on Friday was also in the Belarussian capital for talks with President Alexander Lukashenko.

The missile shipment is the latest move expanding military ties between Russia and Belarus. In 1996, the two nations signed a union agreement providing for close political, economic and military ties and their armed forces have held frequent joint drills.

In February, Russian air force chief Gen. Vladimir Mikhailov said Russia planned to set up a permanent military air base in Belarus.

Russia has watched warily as former Soviet bloc countries bordering Belarus - Poland, Latvia and Lithuania -have joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Iran - India Gas Link Deal Close Despite US Ire

The New York Times:

Iran, India and Pakistan are close to signing a gas pipeline deal, the Iranian and Pakistani oil ministers told Reuters on Saturday, defying U.S. opposition to the project. The plan to pump Iranian gas to India through Pakistan was first proposed more than a decade ago, but progress has been slow because of hostility between India and Pakistan and, more recently, U.S. opposition to Iran because of its nuclear programme.

Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri said he had an understanding with India and Pakistan and was unconcerned by U.S. opposition. READ MORE

``We have a very good understanding,'' Iranian Oil Minister Kazem Vaziri told Reuters. ``They are willing and Iran is ready.''

Asked when the deal would be signed, he said only: ``I hope we are going to have a ministerial meeting in Tehran in June,'' adding it would be attended by the same three ministers.

Speaking after talks with his Iranian and Indian counterparts on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Doha, Pakistan's oil minister Amanullah Khan Jadoon told Reuters only technical issues had to be resolved.

The $7 billion pipeline through Pakistan would link Iran's abundant gas reserves, the world's second biggest, to India's booming economy.

It would carry 150 million cubic meters per day of gas for 25 years, Vaziri said.

Although Pakistan is a key ally in the U.S.-led war on terror, it has said the pipeline would aid economic growth and foster better ties with India after years of brinkmanship between the nuclear-armed rivals.

Iran had said it would go ahead without India if it did not agree to join the pipeline by May.

The Indian oil minister Murli Deora declined to comment following Saturday's talks.

Mideast 'Axis of Terror' Forms Against West

Nicholas Blanford, The Christian Science Monitor:

Rising tension between the West and Iran is coinciding with the emergence of a loose anti-Western alliance - Israel now dubs it an "axis of terror" - spanning the Middle East, presenting a new challenge to the US's regional ambitions. Centered on Iran, this alignment has hardened in recent months, analysts say, with Tehran shoring up old alliances and strengthening ties with countries (Syria and Iraq) and with groups (Hizbullah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad) that share its hostility toward Israel and the US.

"The alliance that is emerging in this part of the world is a creation of Iran," says Sami Moubayed, a Syrian political analyst. "It wants to bolster its position by allying itself with countries or groups that can temporarily enhance its regional role and influence." READ MORE

On Tuesday, Israel's UN envoy Dan Gillerman dubbed this alliance the "new axis of terror" following a suicide bombing claimed by the Iranian-funded Islamic Jihad in Tel Aviv the previous day that killed nine Israelis.

"A dark cloud is looming above our region, and it is metastasizing as a result of the statements and actions by leaders of Iran, Syria, and the newly elected government of the Palestinian Authority," Mr. Gillerman said.

The alliance, which is ad hoc and tactical rather than a formalized strategic pact, includes Syria and groups such as Lebanon's Hizbullah, the Iran-backed militant Shiite organization, radical Palestinian organizations such as Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command as well as some Iraqi allies.

So far the strategy appears to be working in their favor. Hizbullah has become one of the most influential players in Lebanon and looks set to retain its military wing for the foreseeable future.

Iran has rarely appeared more resolute, boasting of its success in uranium enrichment and expressing near daily defiance toward the US. Damascus is gaining confidence with a slackening of international pressure lately amid concerns that a collapse of Syria's Baathist regime could trigger Iraq-style instability.

"The Syrians are very supportive of Iran and very supportive of Hamas and Hizbullah," says Mr. Moubayed. "Almost everybody in Syria is praising [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad's alliance with Iran as a very smart move. Many are saying that the alliance with [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad was not political suicide after all."

Iran is the driving force behind the alliance, its strategic position in the region enhanced by the US-led effort to oust Tehran's Taliban enemy in Afghanistan to the east and its Baathist foe in Iraq to the west.

Over the weekend, Iran hosted a three-day conference in support of the Palestinians, pledging $50 million to the newly elected Hamas government and reaffirming its ties to other rejectionist Palestinian groups.

"This is an anti-America alliance," says Joshua Landis, professor of history at the University of Oklahoma and author of Syriacomment.com, who spent 2005 living in Damascus. "My guess is that the US will end up in a weaker position than it started. The war on terror has alienated the Muslim countries who now believe that America is the big bad ogre and specter of imperialism."

A year ago, Syria's strategic position looked grim, having been forced to disengage from neighboring Lebanon, ending 15 years of domination. Hizbullah also was feeling the squeeze amid the departure of its Syrian protector and a growing clamor for its disarmament from the party's Lebanese opponents.

But the election in August of the confrontational Mr. Ahmadinejad as president of Iran reinvigorated the long-standing relationship between Tehran and Damascus. Syria is the geostrategic linchpin connecting Tehran to its Lebanese protégé, Hizbullah, and was also regarded by Iran as the weak link in the chain, one that required buttressing.

A newly emboldened Syria began to display greater defiance against international pressure. In November, Mr. Assad asserted in a speech that "the region [faces] two choices: either resistance and steadfastness or chaos. There is no third choice.

"If they believe that they [the West] can blackmail Syria, we tell them they got the wrong address," he said.

A series of Middle East elections also bolstered the emerging alliance. In late December, Shiite factions close to Tehran dominated the Iraqi elections. The following month, Hamas triumphed in the Palestinian elections, granting Iran greater leverage in the Israeli-Palestinian arena.

In mid-January, Assad hosted a summit in Damascus with Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president's first state visit. Also attending were the leaders of Hizbullah and several anti-Israel Palestinian groups in what analysts regarded as an affirmation of the anti-Western axis.

"The meeting between Ahmadinejad and Assad," commented Sateh Noureddine of Lebanon's As Safir newspaper at the time, "did not come as a sign of defeat, but rather as a joint warning to the world. A warning that the alliance between the two neighbors is on its way to becoming stronger."

The alliance includes the Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr, who in visits to Tehran and Damascus in January and February vowed to come to the defense "by all possible means" of Iran and Syria if attacked by the US.

There is a commercial dimension, too. In February, Iran and Syria inked sweeping economic and trade agreements including one establishing gas, oil, railroad, and electrical links between Syria and Iran via Iraq. Both countries are looking to the emerging economic powerhouses of Asia to build new trade ties as an alternative to Europe and the West.

"Syria has been signing oil and gas contracts with India, China, and Russia," says Mr. Landis, the Syria expert. "Syria and Iran are thinking they can build Iraq into their northern tier, building gas and oil pipelines across the region."