Saturday, June 25, 2005

Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [6/19-6/25] major news events regarding Iran.

Iran's Presidential Elections:
Last Sunday
  • The initial media reports on Iran's election, Friday (June 17th), were largely uncritical of the government "election results." They reported a large turnout and a run off election was needed between Rafsanjani and Ahmedinejad.
  • Iranian blogger Windseed reported fraud and Ramin Parham chastised the media for its uncritical coverage. We also reported on these problems with the media and called on the blogosphere for help. But finally on Sunday, The NY Times and the Economist began reporting on allegations of vote rigging. Some in the blogosphere began to help, but most had assumed the elections were fraudulent anyway. My point was that we needed to hold the media accountable. The International media could ask questions that Iranian journalist's could not without great risk.
  • The U.S. and. Canada came out against the election results.
Monday
  • The Iranian expatriate community charged that most of the media was silent on the fraud in the elections. The Wall Street Journal said it was astonished at the media's coverage of the election.
  • Michael Ledeen reported that sources inside Iran's Interior Ministry put the actual number of voters at roughly seven million people.
  • Under pressure, Iran's powerful Guardian Council decided to recount a small number of ballot boxes.
  • Iran’s former Parliament Speaker and presidential hopeful Mehdi Karroubi resigned his membership of the powerful State Expediency Council and stepped down as an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in protest against rigging of the polls.
  • Shirin Ebadi said the election result was not a true reflection of the will of the people.
  • There were reports that Bassij forces attacked campaigners for Rafsanjani.
  • Iranian blogger, Hoder.com, discussed the possibility of a coming coup in the run 0ff election, scheduled for Friday.
Tuesday
  • The media shifted and began aggressively questioning the Iranian election. The Wall Street Journal said no matter who wins, the news won't be good.
  • The large Iranian Student Union, Tahkeem Vahdat, called the election a sham, called for a boycott of Friday's run off election and stated that the regime is not reformable.
  • DEBKAfile reported on how Iran's Supreme Leader rigged the election for Ahmedinejad.
  • Mehdi Karoubi's resignation letter to the Supreme Leader of Iran was published briefly online on the Shargh and Emrooz websites, but was immediately "cleansed" from those sites. The Supreme Leader rebuked him.
  • Iranian officials dismissed rigging allegations in Iran's presidential election.
  • A Dutch MP argued in Iran, for the majority of voters, participation in the election is merely a sign that they prefer to bring about change in the country through peaceful means.
  • The media began reporting that anti-West forces were uniting in Iran's election and warned of the discontent of youthful electorate.
  • The "reformist" movement in Iran said would now support Rafsanjani and opposes the candidacy of the mayor of Tehran. The week before they feared him.
  • Iranian security officials confiscated more than half a million wallet-size cards and posters endorsing Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani for president. They did so because the posters and cards contained the words "repression," "terrorizing," "freedom" and "democracy."
  • Once again, blogs in Iran led other media in election reporting.
Wednesday
  • In a potentially major shift, Britain adopted a more confrontational policy towards Iran. Many in the Foreign Office believe that the Iranian regime is "dying."
  • Evidence of election fraud continued to come in, such as in Iran's South Khorrasan province where 298,000 ballots were counted in the first round of the presidential elections despite the fact that there were only 270,000 eligible voters, a defeated candidate claimed.
  • "Reformist's" complained that votes are votes are being bought.
  • Last week Iranian blogger, Hoder was desperately fighting to keep Rafsanjani from becoming President, today he came out in support of him. This discouraged other Iranians.
  • Iran's Interior Ministry reported that they had exact information about the people and institutions who have been acting in directing and shaping votes the day before the election.
  • Then the "polls" on the run off election began coming out, one showing the race tight another showing a lead for Ahmedinejad.
  • Iranian blogger, Lilit, reported that a 27-year old Basiji declared that he voted 11 times, with 8 fake Identity cards, because the supreme Leader wanted him to do so.
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Iranians vote again in the US:
Iran's trouble making outside of Iran:
Iran's nuclear negotiations:
US Policy and Iran:
Human Rights/Freedom of the press inside of Iran:
Popular struggle for freedom inside of Iran:
Iran and the world community:
Sean Penn in Iran:
  • Still silent.
Iranian bloggers:
Must Read reports:
The Experts:
 Photos and cartoons of the week:
And finally, The Quote of the Week:
In an interview, Iranian student dissident Ahmad Batebi said,

The candidates were never elected by the people, the selection of the candidates are from the supreme leader. The people of Iran had no power in choosing any of them.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 11:30:00 PM  

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 6.25.2005:

Iran’s ruling clerics fear street protests

Iran Focus:
A day after the surprise election of the ultra-conservative mayor of Tehran as the new President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the country'’s security forces were placed on heightened state of alert throughout Saturday to prevent any street demonstrations. READ MORE
July 9th is the anniversary of a bloody crackdown of student. I am told there are large demonstrations scheduled for that date.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.
And finally, today's photos and a cartoon.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 09:00:00 PM  

Iran’s ruling clerics fear street protests

Iran Focus:
A day after the surprise election of the ultra-conservative mayor of Tehran as the new President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the country'’s security forces were placed on heightened state of alert throughout Saturday to prevent any street demonstrations. READ MORE

The move reflected fears in the ruling clerical circles that a dissatisfied young population could react with fury to what many see as a 'coup'” by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the hard-line institutions under his control to consolidate their power.

The furious reaction of the loser, former President Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, to the election results has added to the highly charged political climate in Tehran.

In a statement released today, Rafsanjani accused state institutions of "using all available means in an organised way and illegally interfering in the elections”".

"If God'’s wrath takes revenge, it will not be directed at the Iranian people and the Islamic revolution, but against the real criminals, who will be punished"”, the former President said in an oblique reference to the powerful clerics around Khamenei.

Khamenei last night banned all street demonstrations following the results of the presidential elections amid concerns that opponents of the regime would take the opportunity to turn street gatherings into anti-government protests.

"“Dragging people on to the streets . . . under any pretext is against the interests of the country"”, Khamenei declared in a statement read on the state-run radio and television.

"Khamenei has taken a big gamble"”, said Shahin Soltani, an Iran affairs analyst based in the Hague. "He has circled the wagons to be in a better position to face the growing crisis over Iran. But he has alienated not only Hashemi Rafsanjani, but many senior clerics who don'’t want to see all the power concentrated in the hands of the ultra-conservatives. This massive alienation leaves him in a vulnerable position, despite the success of his strategy to put his man in the presidential office”."

Other analysts see a rising potential for spontaneous demonstrations by young people, women and other sections of the disaffected population.

"It's too early to speak of a velvet or orange revolution in Iran"”, Masoud Zabeti, an Iran Focus analyst based in London, said in telephone interview. "But the basic ingredients "widespread discontent, power struggle at the top of the regime, and a demoralized security force "– are all there. Khamenei has every right to be very fearful of street protests that could easily get out of hand"”.

In recent days there have been many demonstrations in Tehran and other major cities calling for a boycott of the elections, a referendum, and an end to clerical rule. None has been on a scale to pose a serious threat to clerical authority, but the security forces have taken no chances and used violence to disperse the protesters.

"“The Islamic Republic is going through the most perilous phase of its existence since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989", Zabeti said. "In such a situation, even limited demonstrations could be dangerous"”.
July 9th is the anniversary of a bloody crackdown of student. I am told there are large demonstrations scheduled for that date.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 08:11:00 PM  

Western Nations Condemn Iran Vote Outcome

Beth Gardiner, Yahoo News:
Governments of Muslim countries offered cautious congratulations in response to Iran's presidential election, while several Western countries Saturday sharply criticized a vote they said showed "serious deficiencies." READ MORE

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the conservative mayor of Tehran, defeated his relatively moderate rival and was declared Iran's next president. His triumph extends the conservatives' control in Iran at a time when the nation's nuclear program faces increasing international scrutiny.

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said many candidates were excluded and there were widespread complaints that security forces and other arms of the government had interfered improperly in the first round of the elections held June 17.

"For the Iranian people to have a fully free choice about their country's future, they should be able to vote for candidates who hold the full range of political views, not just candidates selected for them," he said.

In Washington, White House spokeswoman Maria Tamburri said Saturday the United States also questioned the fairness of the elections.

"We have expressed our clear concerns about the recent elections where over 1,000 candidates were disqualified from running, and there were many allegations of election fraud and interference," she said. "We continue to stand with those who call for greater freedoms for the Iranian people."

In Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, a Foreign Ministry spokesman focused on the election itself rather than the winner.

"The people of Iran are to be congratulated for the tremendous support and enthusiasm they have shown for the democratic electoral process," spokesman Marty Natalegawa said.

The leader of a radical Islamic group in Indonesia applauded the hard-liner's victory.

"I'm glad and happy to know Iran's result," said Irfan Awwas, a leader of Majelis Mujahiddin Indonesia, an extremist group. Its founder, Abu Bakar Bashir, is in jail for his role in the 2002 Bali bombings that killed 202 people.

A spokesman in Afghanistan — which shares a long border with Iran — refused comment on the choice of Ahmadinejad, saying the vote was an internal decision.

But several governments urged Iran to respond to international concerns about its nuclear program. France, Britain and Germany have been negotiating with Iran on its nuclear program, offering economic incentives in the hope of persuading the country to permanently halt uranium enrichment.

Straw urged the new president to "take early steps to address international concerns about its nuclear program and policies toward terrorism, human rights and the Middle East peace process."

The Iranian Foreign Ministry said Friday that a permanent suspension was "not in the cards" whatever the outcome of the vote.

Iran suspended all uranium enrichment-related activities in November to avoid having its nuclear program referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. Iran insists its enrichment activities are for civilian uses only — not to make nuclear weapons, as the United States claims.

Ahmadinejad signaled during his campaign that he likely would take a much tougher stance in the talks.

In an open letter to be published in the Bild am Sonntag weekly on Sunday, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said he expected the talks to continue and that Iran "must produce objective guarantees that its nuclear program will be used exclusively for peaceful objectives."

He said the Europeans would continue to push for increased democracy and human rights in Iran.

Russia, which is helping build a nuclear plant in Iran and has offered to build more, said it was ready to keep cooperating as long as international agreements were observed.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:17:00 PM  

New Iran Leader Speaks of Future After Win

Kathy Gannon, Yahoo News:
Iran's new president spoke Saturday of making Iran a "modern, advanced, powerful and Islamic" model for the world, borrowing the style of the hard-line ruling clerics that backed him in his landslide victory. READ MORE

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's brief radio address to the nation did not mention his views on the future of Iran's growing social freedoms — leaving liberal critics still fearing the worst.

It was an ironic twist that Iran's first non-cleric to reach the country's highest elected office since the 1979 Islamic Revolution was more religiously unyielding than the cleric he defeated, former president Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani.

"My mission is creating a role model of a modern, advanced, powerful and Islamic society," he said in the message broadcast shortly after the announcement of final results sealed his stunning defeat of the self-proclaimed moderate Rafsanjani.

The victory gives conservatives control of Iran's two highest elected offices — the presidency and parliament.

The results, announced on state television, gave Ahmadinejad 61.6 percent of the vote to Rafsanjani's 35.9 percent. The rest of the ballots were deemed invalid.

Turnout among Iran's approximately 47 million eligible voters was more than 59 percent. In last week's election, the turnout was close to 63 percent.

The president-elect has said he is in no hurry to re-establish relations with the United States, which cut diplomatic ties with Iran after its embassy was besieged for 444 days and 52 employees held hostage in 1979. As a student, Ahmadinejad (pronounced aah-MA-dee-ni-JAHD) joined an ultraconservative faction of the Office for Strengthening Unity, the radical student group that staged the embassy's capture.

"The United States was free to cut its ties with Iran but the Iranian government is free to decide about restarting its relationship with the United States as well," Ahmadinejad said on his Web site. "This decision will be made when Iran has the guarantee that its interests will be secure in any new relationship."

Governments of Muslim countries offered cautious congratulations in response to the election, while several Western countries — including the United States — sharply criticized the vote Saturday. There were complaints that the candidates allowed to run for president were decided by the powerful Guardian Council, made up of clerics, who disqualified upward of 1,000 contestants, including 50 women.

In Washington, White House spokeswoman Maria Tamburri said Saturday the United States was concerned about the fairness of the elections.

"We strongly support free and fair elections through which the Iranian people can express their will," Tamburri said. "We have expressed our clear concerns about the recent elections where over 1,000 candidates were disqualified from running, and there were many allegations of election fraud and interference."

Ahmadinejad, who currently is Tehran's mayor, has not revealed the makeup of his Cabinet, but his deputy campaign manager told The Associated Press that a 200-member team cobbled together during the presidential campaign has been poring over names and resumes.

"The only requirement is a willingness to serve the people," said Abdulhasan Faqih, 32, a soft-spoken doctor who helped steer Ahmadinejad's campaign.

Faqih named only two within the current administration who could qualify to keep their posts: Mehdi Chamran, a deeply conservative Tehran Municipal Council chairman, who is the brother of one of Iran's cherished war heroes and has close ties to the Revolutionary Guard; and the 60-year-old speaker of the Parliament, Ghulam Ali Haddad-Adel, described as a moderate conservative with good relations with both the hard-line and the reformist movements.

Faqih said there would be no review of Iran's nuclear policy.

"Our nuclear technology is homegrown and no one will stop our nuclear development," Faqih said.

But he said a military application of Iran's nuclear development was not under consideration. The United States accuses Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons, something Iran denies.

Ahmadinejad's campaign headquarters, a modest two-story concrete house tucked away in a narrow alleyway in central Tehran, had the unassuming and humble appearance that reflected the image cultivated by the new president.

"God willing, things will be better with Ahmadinejad," said Tala Shabani, a woman who works at a welfare organization in the city. "I'm the only one earning for my family. Ahmadinejad is a humble man. Let's see what he can do."

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:17:00 PM  

Exiled Iranian opposition leaders hail Ahmadinejad's election

Yahoo News:
Exiled Iranian opposition leaders hailed hardliner Mahmood Ahmadinejad's victory in Iran's presidential election, saying it would bring Tehran's Islamic regime a step closer to collapse. READ MORE

While the election of the conservative Islamist might bring tough times for Iranians in the short term, they said, it will ultimately fuel internal opposition, put external pressure on the government and expose cracks within the regime.

Several Iranians in California, home to the most of the 400,000 to 600,000 US-based Persians, said they were shocked but thrilled at the victory of the Tehran mayor, even though his social and political values and beliefs are diametrically opposed to their own.

"We are really excited, this is a very good thing for the opposition to the Islamic republic," said Roozbeh Farhanipour, an activist of the secular Marzepour Gohar political group and a former Iranian student leader who fled to the United States in 2000.

"A moderate Taliban has become the president of Iran, but it's the last stand of the regime," he told AFP in a reference to Afghanistan's harsh Islamic leadership that was ousted in a US attack in 2001.

In contrast with US-based Iranian exiles, the US State Department denounced the election as flawed and said Iran was "out of step" with a trend toward freedom in the Middle East and Central Asia.

Farhanipour and other activists who had called for a boycott of Friday's poll said the shock result was a sign of deep discontent with the 26-year-old Islamic regime and with outgoing reformist President Mohammad Khatami, who failed to implement major political and social changes.

"This sends a message that the people don't believe in the Islamic Republic any more and that they cannot any longer do what they want to the people," the 33-year-old said in Los Angeles.

"Ahmadinejad is a short cut for the opposition and a move toward the revolution. I hope that this is the last president of the Islamic Republic."

While the multiple exiled Iranian opposition groups are deeply divided on many issues, all those reached Friday claimed that a new hardline president would step up international and internal pressure on their country's Islamic leadership, shortening its lifespan.

"Ahmadinejad is the Islamic Republic at its best," said Bihan Mehr, of the Iran National Front, or Jebhe Melli, a liberal democratic party founded in Iran in 1950 but branded infidel by the Islamic regime.

"With this guy, the world and Iran will get to bottom of the problem real quick," said the 46-year-old property developer who left Iran when the last shah was toppled in 1979.

Mehr called on the European Union, international community and global business to take a tough stance against the new ultra-conservative president in a move that would further isolate and apply pressure to his government.

The man who lost Friday's presidential polls, ex-president and cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, would have presented a more moderate face to the world, extending the tenure of the Islamic government, Mehr claimed.

"The voters had a choice between a hardliner and a thief and they chose the right guy for the opposition," Mehr said. "Now the opposition must organise quickly."

He said Rafsanjani could have "wheeled and dealt" with West by appearing more flexible.

"But with Ahmadinejad, there will be no fooling anyone. I think this has sped up the process of recognising the brutality and lack of skill of this regime," an ecstatic Mehr said.

Even monarchists, still bitter over the fall of the shah's secular government, appeared to welcome the election of a tough Islamist who they said would further restrict political expression, democracy and the rights of women.

A source close to the son of the last shah, Reza Pahlavi, said in Los Angeles he was surprised but very pleased with the stunning polls outcome.

"It's a good thing for Iran because it ends all the deception and pretence," the source, who requested anonymity, told AFP.

"Rafsanjani is much more ruthless and much more dangerous, but he would have deceived the world about who he really is. With Ahmadinejad, what you see is what you get.

"That's good for long-term, but bad in the short term," the source said. "This is now a crucial time for the opposition to unite and organise both inside Iran. They should be encouraged," he said.
I regretfully agree!

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:14:00 PM  

Reza Pahlavi: Iran's Presidential Elections

Reza Pahlavi, Le Figaro: This was published in the French publication prior to the final election in Iran, yesterday.
This article was originally printed in Le Figaro newspaper in France.

Today is the second and final round of the 9th Presidential Elections of the Islamic Republic in Iran. No matter what the result, the people already know two things.

First, their votes are unlikely to be counted correctly in the official results. This is based on the statement of the Minister of State, who is responsible for the elections. He said that fraud in the second round is likely to exceed fraud in the first round, and warned of massive intervention by the plainclothes armed forces.

Second, it does not really matter who is elected, because he can only execute the wishes of the unelected Supreme Leader: The Islamic Republic is a theocracy whose constitution specifically denies sovereignty to the people and leaves ultimate legislative authority in the hands a Guardian Council dominated by the appointees of the Supreme Leader. As the representative of god on earth the Supreme leader embodies sovereignty and is the head of the armed forces, in control of electronic media, personal recipient of taxes on oil and other incomes, and the repository of sundry other powers.

Eight years ago many Iranians voted for the present President to reform the anachronous theocracy. In two subsequent elections they gave his allies control of the Islamic Parliament and regional governments. With the Parliament back in the control of hardliners, and a new President who is unlikely to get the trust or percentage of vote of Mr. Khatami, what could possibly be the basis of hope that the theocracy could be reformed? And if not, what is the point of votes even if they were counted correctly?

The answer of those who are promoting former President and the Present head of the Expediency Council, Mr. Rafsanjani, is that if people do not elect him they will end up with a religious fascist who will stamp on liberty at home and inflame international tensions through more support for terrorism abroad.

At least pro-Rafsanjani Iranians frequently have the modesty to admit what they advocate is choosing what is bad, over what is worse. Some foreign media, on the other hand, have acted as campaign posters for Rafsanjani, portraying him as the panacea for all that is wrong with Iran, from isolation and terrorism to the nuclear question.

What is clear is that Mr. Rafsanjani needs to convince the Supreme leader that he is the man who can avert the wrath of the West. But, what is not clear is why the man who advocated the actual use of a nuclear weapon as the solution to the “Israeli Problem,” is now the hope of a nuclear settlement with Iran? How a man convicted of conspiracy for murder by a German court, with an arrest warrant actionable in every country with an extradition treaty with Germany could be presented as a moderate?

But we must look beyond the next few months. The Islamic Republic of early revolutionary zeal, of the war years, of the dreams of reform or the vain hope to moderate theocratic absolutes are all gone.

Iran is ripe for change.

With astounding suddenness there will emerge a new generation of Iranians who can reopen my homeland to the world and restore her greatness. With my deep affection for France and French civilization since early childhood, I hope to see that new generation of Iranians consider France as a credible and reliable friend.

But the foundation of the friendship must be laid now. French politicians could take the next step and introduce support for human rights and democracy in the core, and as an inseparable part of the negotiations with Iran. This will get the respect of Iranian people who see that you stand true to you founding ideals, but it will also get the respect of the Islamic Republic, because it shows the courage to bring in the big stick.

After nearly a year and a half of negotiations you know that Iranian plutocrats and institutions, who make their money on black markets and on unequal terms of trade, are not impressed by Western offers to let them into the WTO, where they would have to respect transparency and equal terms of trade. Nor are they worried about the stick of the UN Security Council, given that Russia’s nuclear establishment is solvent partially because of deals with her southern neighbor and China’s long term energy stability tributary on its large scale Iran investments.

Pressure on human rights and democracy, however, will get serious attention in Iran’s domestic security apparatus, because that is precisely where the system’s Achilles ’ heel is to be found. READ MORE

Sooner than many may expect, my homeland will be free. For generations of Iranians to come, there will be inscribed in our collective memory those who, today, made the decision to help us, and those who turned their back to us.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:11:00 PM  

Iran is 'Out Of Step' With Region: US State Department

Agence France Presse, Yahoo! News:
Iran is "out of step" with a trend toward freedom and liberty in its region, the US State Department said, after hardliner Mahmood Ahmadinejad won a presidential election condemned by Washington as "flawed".

"With the conclusion of the election in Iran, we have seen nothing that dissuades us from our view that Iran is out of step with the rest of the region and the currents of freedom and liberty that have been so apparent in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon," State Department spokeswoman Joanne Moore said late Friday. READ MORE

"These elections were flawed from their inception by the decision of an unelected few to deny the applications of over a thousand candidates, including all 93 women," she said.

"We will judge the regime by its actions. In light of the way these elections were conducted, however, we remain skeptical that the Iranian regime is interested in addressing either the legitimate desires of its own people, or the concerns of the broader international community," Moore said.

"The United States believes in the right of the Iranian people to make their own decisions and determine their own future, and as the Iranian people stand for their own liberty, we stand with them."

Hardline Tehran mayor Ahmadinejad swept to a shock victory in Friday's second round vote in Iran, a win set to spell an end to years of difficult reform and place the Islamic republic on a collision course with the West.

The interior ministry said Ahmadinejad, a self-proclaimed fundamentalist seeking a return to the moral "purity" of the early years of the Islamic revolution, thrashed his more pragmatist rival Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Ahmadinejad's victory leaves anti-Western ultra-conservatives in complete control over every elected and unelected institution in Iran, and Rafsanjani's humiliating defeat will remove what has been a moderating influence within the 26-year-old theocracy.

In Los Angeles, exiled Iranian opposition leaders hailed Ahmadinejad's victory, saying it would bring Tehran's Islamic regime a step closer to collapse.

While the election of the conservative Islamist might bring tough times for Iranians in the short term, they said, it will ultimately fuel internal opposition, put external pressure on the government and expose cracks within the regime.

Some 400,000 to 600,000 Iranians live in the United States, most of them in California.

Earlier Friday, before the result, a senior State Department official speaking on condition of anonymity said Washington would watch carefully the policies crafted and actions taken by the new Iranian president.

"It goes back to policies and actions as opposed to personalities," he said, not expressing any preference for Rafsanjani or Ahmadinejad.

Asked whether the United States would be "engaging" with the new Iranian president, the US official said: "The issue of who wins is not going to determine whether we engage or not.

"The issue of engagement will be a factor (based on) policy decisions the Iranian government makes and specific actions that it takes," he said. "That will be the criteria by which we decide what we do."

US officials including President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice repeatedly heaped scorn on Iran's presidential poll in recent days.

"Power is in the hands of an unelected few who have retained power through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy," Bush said in a statement last week.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:10:00 PM  

Rafsanjani Says 'Divine Vengeance' Will Punish Iran Election Violators

BBC Monitoring Service, Monsters and Critics:
Chairman of the Expediency Council and a candidate in Iran's presidential election Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani has issued a statement regarding the second round of election.

Following is the text of the statement as reported by ISNA:

In the name of God, the compassionate, the merciful.

To the honourable and pious people of the Islamic Iran.

Your glorious participation in the presidential election strengthened the Islamic system, and delivered a fitting response to the toxic propaganda of the enemies of Iran and the Islamic revolution. I hope the president-elect, Dr Ahmadinezhad, will successfully shoulder this grave responsibility, and fulfil his promises. Without a doubt, everyone should help him in his quest to serve the people.

As I've repeatedly said, I entered the presidential race to fulfil my duty to God and serve the revolution, Islam, Iran and the nation. I shall continue to serve the country - as I've done so in the past.

I did my best with the hope of maximizing public participation, which was an aim of the eminent leader of the revolution, and of increasing the vote of the elected president, and of maintaining national unity.

Fortunately, the first and the second objectives have been realized, and I hope that the third objective will be realized through the vigilance of you the people, and the dutifulness of the country's officials and political and social factions; and that the enemy will not be able to achieve its objectives, i.e. minimum participation, least number of votes for the president and the maximum amount of tension.

I do not intend to take my complaint about the elections to those arbitrators who have proved that they do not want, or can not, do anything. As in the previous case, I only seek my right in the court of divine justice and the God whose help I beseeched, and for whose satisfaction I entered the scene, and with whom I made a deal. I am certain that if anyone is going to be punished in divine vengeance it will not be the people, the Islamic Revolution or Iran, but only the real culprits.

They tried to weaken their rival by weakening the revolution because they knew that their rival would defend the revolution at all times and is not afraid of responsibilities. They have ruthlessly destroyed the reputation of my family and that of mine by spending tens of billions from the public purse in an unprecedented manner. They have interfered in the elections by utilizing the facilities of the [Islamic] system in an organized and illegitimate manner. I am sure that the punishment for their injustice to the country, people and I will only result in their loss in this world and the hereafter. READ MORE

I always pray to God almighty to save the country and the revolution from the enemies, the irrational and faithless opportunists and to guard the path of the late Imam and the achievements of the martyrs, war veterans, those missing in action, former prisoners of war and their respected families.

I would like to express my appreciation to those people who worked hard in the elections and supported me, and thank those ten million people who placed their trust me by voting for me despite massive destructive acts [against my reputation].

Source: ISNA web site, Tehran, in Persian 1532 gmt 25 Jun 05

BBC Mon Alert ME1 MEPol fh
An amazing statement. What will the mainstream media do with this?

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:09:00 PM  

Britain Presses Iran To Tackle Nuclear Concerns After Vote

Khaleej Times Online:
Britain pressed Iran on Saturday to take quick steps to address mounting concerns over its suspect nuclear program, following the victory of hardliner Mahmood Ahmedinejad in the presidential elections, Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said.

“I hope that under Mr Ahmedinejad’s presidency, Iran will take early steps to address international concerns about its nuclear programme” as well as its policies toward terrorism, human rights and the Middle East peace process, Straw said in a statement. READ MORE

“We will work hard with our EU partners and bilaterally, to encourage action by Iran in these areas,” Straw added.

The British foreign secretary also noted there were “serious deficiencies” in the election process which fell short of international standards, including charges of interference by security forces.

“Many candidates, including all the women, were barred from standing by an unelected body,” Straw said, noting that many more potential candidates were deterred by election procedures.

The Iranian people “should be able to vote for candidates who hold the full range of political views, not just candidates selected for them,” he said.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:08:00 PM  

Iran Official Alleges Poll Fraud

CNN:
An official with Iran's Interior Ministry has accused Iran's Guardian Council of election fraud in the presidential runoff vote and said he was placed under arrest when he objected to voting irregularities, Iran's official news agency said. READ MORE

"I was personally witness to interference of Guardians Council monitors' serious interference in voting stations where I was commissioned to survey the sound process of election," Ali Mirbaqeri, the managing director of the Interior Ministry's Majlis Affairs, told IRNA.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, mayor of Tehran, was declared the winner in the presidential runoff Saturday with more than 61 percent of the vote over Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani's 36 percent.

Mirbaqeri spoke to reporters at the Interior Ministry's election headquarters shortly after he was released from custody.

"The monitors of the Guardians Council were not only filling out the tariffs and controlling the voters' IDs, but also constantly issuing orders for every one," he said.

"The presence of representatives of the governor and the Interior Ministry were thus practically quite useless at the voting stations.

"I voiced my objection to such broad violation of the Election Laws, and was as a result arrested at a voting station," Mirbaqeri said.

He said he was freed after two-and-a-half hours in the Khani-Abad-e-Nou police station jail "thanks to the interference of the Interior Ministry."

"The monitors of the Guardians Council had in all voting stations before the one in which I was arrested, too, been violating the Election Laws, and kept me that they (the GC monitors) were the ones to decide the fate of the elections, and that I had no right to intervene," he said.
The Iranian government fighting with the Iranian government. The regime is beginning to crumble. The fissures are there.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:06:00 PM  

Nuke Crisis Looms with an Islamic-military Iran

Martin Walker, United Press International:
The landslide election victory of the hard-line mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, sets the stage for a tense new confrontation between Iran and the West. READ MORE

Ahmadinejad, who won a sweeping 62 percent of the votes in Iran's presidential race, was the candidate of the Pasdaran Revolutionary Guard, in which he served as a senior commander, and of the Basij security service and militia. He also has strong backing from the Guardian Council and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who barely bothered to conceal their partiality for him.

The Pasdaran is the elite military force, founded by Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeni after the 1979 revolution that toppled the shah, to guarantee the Islamic regime's safety against the Iranian military which was suspect as packed with supporters or the former shah.

The Pasdaran, which gets the best modern weapons, also controls Iran's strategic weapons systems, including the Shihab-3 ballistic missiles and the suspected nuclear weapons program.

The Pasdaran also runs Iran's long-standing relations with militant Islamic groups overseas, and particularly the Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which makes Iran into a "state sponsor of terrorism" according to the definition of the United States. The Pasdaran also provide the 50 tons of weaponry and explosives aboard the Karine-A, the Palestinian ship that was stopped by Israeli commandos before it could smuggle its deadly cargo to the Palestine Liberation Organization. Israeli officials also claim the Pasdaran has trained and equipped militants of the Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

Western intelligence sources have told United Press International that the new president served in the Al Quds Battalion of the Pasdaran, which was responsible for operations abroad. (Al Quds is the Arabic name for the city of Jerusalem, and signals strong commitment to the Palestinian cause.) The sources add that he is believed to have participated in operations in western Europe, saying in particular that he was one of a number of Iranians suspected of involvement in the killing of three Iranian Kurdish leaders in an ambush on the outskirts of the Austrian capital Vienna.

Newly empowered by the oil price boom which has put an extra $30 billion into Iran's treasury in the last 12 months, the Iranian religious authorities have now swept away the remnants of the reformist civilian government that won the last two presidential elections. All three main arms of the Iranian state, the government, the Supreme Council of the religious leadership, and the Pasdaran-Basij security force and power base, are now in the hands of militant Islamic hard-liners who see the U.S. and Israel as their mortal enemies.

Iran is now in effect becoming an Islamic-military state. One in three of the 290 elected deputies in the Majlis, Iran's parliament, now come from the Pasdaran, the Basij or the related military-industrial groups they run, and 42 of them come, like the new president, from the ranks of the Padaran.

Western officials were dismayed by the result, which they see ending the slim chances of the ongoing negotiations with Britain, France and Germany to bring Iran back into compliance with the provisions of the Non Proliferation Treaty and to reassure other countries that Iran's secret nuclear weans program would in future be blocked by an international inspection regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"This all but closes the door for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations," commented Karim Sadjadpour, a Tehran-based analyst for the International Crisis Group, speaking to al-Jazeera TV. "I think Ahmadinejad is less amenable to compromise on the nuclear issue."

The Bush administration is now likely to press its European allies for a swift reaction, demanding that the new Iranian president either commit to the negotiations and to the IAEA inspections, or face a formal complaint to the United Nations Security Council and a demand for sanctions. Failing that, the prospect of some form of military action against Iran's nuclear sites, whether by the U.S. or by Israel, cannot be ruled out.

The new President Ahmadinejad, 49, will take office in August. He campaigned on a conservative and populist Islamic platform, and came from behind to score a surprise success in the first round of voting by five other candidates to reach the run-off. In Friday's vote, he then defied the opinion polls and predictions of a close race, to defeat the more moderate former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who had campaigned on a promise of more reform, relaxation of religious controls, and a cautious re-opening of links to the U.S.

Both the first round and the run-off vote have seen allegations of stuffed ballot boxes and fraud, of the rules being bent to allow certain polling stations to stay open for hours beyond the official deadline, and of intense get-out-the-vote efforts by the Pasdaran with military trucks and by the Basij militia in the poor districts on Tehran where Ahmadinejad is popular. Turnout in the run-off poll was 52 percent, down from 63 percent in the first round a week ago.

Iran's Interior Ministry, still in the hands of the relatively moderate outgoing government, reported 300 complaints of electoral violations in Tehran alone, but the religious Supreme Council rejected the Ministry's request to have six voting stations closed for 'irregularities."

Aides to the defeated Rafsanjani claimed "massive irregularities" in the voting. They said Rafsanjani said Ahmadinejad could only win by fraud.

But Rafsanjani's campaign had been badly hit by a barrage of allegations against him and his family of corruption, with detailed reports of alleged wealth and secret bank accounts being leaked to the conservative press. Ahmadinejad pledged that "the war against corruption" would be one of the two hallmarks of his presidency; the other would be to resist Western "decadence".

"We did not have a revolution in order to have democracy," he said last week.

In Washington, State Department spokeswoman Joanne Moore said the U.S. would judge Iran under President Ahmadinejad by its actions.

"With the conclusion of the elections in Iran, we have seen nothing that dissuades us from our view that Iran is out of step with the rest of the region and the currents of freedom and liberty that have been so apparent in Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon," she said. "These elections were flawed from the inception by the decision of an unelected few to deny the applications of over 1,000 candidates, including all 93 women."

"In light of the way these elections were conducted, however, we remain skeptical that the Iranian regime is interested in addressing either the legitimate desires of its own people, or the concerns of the broader international community," she added.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 03:04:00 PM  

Al-Qaida finds safe haven in Iran

Robert Windrem, MSNBC:
Somewhere north of Tehran, living perhaps in villas near the town of Chalous on the Caspian Sea coast, are between 20 and 25 of al-Qaida’s former leaders, along with two of Osama bin Laden’s sons. READ MORE

Men such as Saif al-Adel, the former military commander of al-Qaida, and Suleiman Abu Ghaith, the bespectacled bin Laden spokesman, are not in hiding but rather in the care — or custody — of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

“They are under virtual house arrest,” not able to do much of anything, said one senior U.S. intelligence official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

How they got there and what will happen to them is one of the more intriguing stories of the war on terror, one that is filled with secret movements, stolen communications and a failed attempt at a prisoner exchange involving Iranian dissidents.

“We believe that they're holding members of al-Qaida's management council,” Fran Townsend, President Bush’s counterterrorism czar, said of Iran.

In an interview with Tom Brokaw two weeks ago, she added: “And we have encouraged and suggested that they ought to try them, they ought to admit freely that they're there — which they have not done — that they're holding them. Or they ought to return them to their countries of origin, which they've also been unwilling to do.”

How’d they get there?

The road to Iran
NBC News has learned that in the chaotic last days before Kabul, Afghanistan, fell to U.S. troops in November 2001, bin Laden and his lieutenants made a strategic decision. Al-Qaida’s then military commander, Mohammed Atef, has just been blown up in a U.S. air attack in the city, one in which a CIA Predator had pinpointed the very house he was staying in. It was time to move out.

Al-Qaida’s leadership had been divided into consultative and management councils, both of which reported to bin Laden.

The consultative council, the “al shura,” was viewed as the more critical to the terror network's continued operations. Its members, including bin Laden and his No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, would flee east to cities in Pakistan. There, over the next few years, many key players would be picked up and bundled off to interrogation centers with great regularity. Abu Zubaydah, al-Qaida’s recruitment and training leader — known as the “dean of students” — was arrested in Faisalabad. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, its operations commander, was grabbed in Rawalpindi; two of his deputies, Ramzi bin al-Shibh and Abu Faraj al Libbi, were taken in Karachi and Multan, and other lesser figures were regularly rousted by Pakistani forces.

The management council went west, to northern Iran, where the United States had little sway and the Iranians had little interest in pushing for their arrests. The group included al-Adel and abu Ghaith; Shaik Said, al-Qaida's chief financial officer; Abu Hafs, al-Qaida’s personnel director; the two top aides to Zawahiri; and a mysterious Yemeni, Abu Dahak, who served as al-Qaida’s ambassador to the rebels in Chechnya. On a personal level, two of bin Laden’s teenage sons, Sa’ad and Hamza, also were taken to Iran.

Al-Qaida operatives in Iran

Setting up base
That’s not to say the Iranians, with their Shiite leadership, held any love for the Wahhabis and Salafists. Iranian intelligence had tried to kill Mullah Omar, the leader of the Taliban, at a palace built for him by bin Laden in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

“They missed, but it wasn’t for lack of trying,” said a Pentagon counter terrorism official at the time of the 2000 attempt. “It was one big truck bomb. I know. I saw pictures of the crater.”

But Iran was either unable or uninterested in taking the al-Qaida members into custody. Al-Qaida operatives, it was soon determined, were in communications, both personally and electronically, with the management and consultative councils. Orders were being given, commands were being carried out.

In April 2002, only five months after leaving Afghanistan, U.S. intelligence officials believed they saw a link between al-Qaida in Iran and the first post-9/11 terrorist attack ordered by bin Laden. A propane truck, used a truck bomb, breached the gates of one of Africa’s oldest synagogues in Djerba, Tunisia, killing 14 tourists. Although the suicide bomber was Tunisian, Western intelligence believed that the attack has been organized by Sa’ad bin Laden.

Feeling pressure

There was also evidence that critical meetings regarding the future of al-Qaida were being held in the relative safety of Iran. But al-Qaida decided at a meeting in Iran in November 2002 that the pressure on it was so great that it could no longer exist as a hierarchy. Two top leaders had just been arrested in Pakistan and in the pre-Iraq war environment, Western governments were putting up a united front.

Instead, following the advice of a key Iran-based al-Qaida strategist, Mustapha Nasar Setmariam, the terror network decided to move its operatives out into the wider world, to the rest of the Middle East, Europe and North America.

As time wore on, the al-Qaida operatives became bolder. In May 2003, operatives in Saudi Arabia carried out the first attack in Riyadh, targeting Westerners’ compounds. Thirty-five people, including eight Americans, were killed.

But then things changed.

Let's make a deal
As a former senior U.S. counterterrorism official told NBC News: “The U.S. government believed that the Saudis made a deal with the Iranians in 1996 after the Khobar Towers bombing. The deal was structured this way: The Saudis would not cooperate with the U.S. on the investigation, knowing that if they did cooperate, the U.S. would have the justification for bombing Iran.”

In return, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Iranians agreed not to support any terrorist attacks in the kingdom. (Ultimately, the United States charged Saudi Hezbollah members with the Khobar Towers attack and named as unindicted co-conspirators two officers of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence.)

“Then, in 2003, we are told, the Saudis — with U.S. and British help — discovered that al-Qaida's management council in Iran was communicating with the al-Qaida cell in Saudi that had carried out the attacks on Western compounds in Riyadh," the official said.

House arrest
“The Saudis let the Iranians know and, citing the earlier agreement, demanded that the Iranians put a halt to the operations of the management council, leading to the Iranians putting the 20 to 25 al-Qaida officials in Iran under virtual house arrest,” the official said.

And that’s just what happened, say current U.S. officials. According to reports in the Arab media, they were rounded up and taken to two locations guarded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards: one in villas in the Namak Abrud region, near the town of Chalous on the Caspian coast, 60 miles north of Tehran, and the other in Lavizan, a region northwest of the capital that also houses a large military complex.

Publicly, all CIA Director Porter Goss will say is that Iran has “detained” al-Qaida elements.

“I don't have all of the information I would like to have,” he told Tom Brokaw. “But I think your understanding is that there is a group of leadership of al-Qaida under some type of detention — I don't know exactly what type, necessarily — in Iran is probably accurate. But I don't think I want to go too far into that — if you don't mind.”

Whether it was a quid pro quo with the Saudis is uncertain to this day, say U.S. officials, but it’s better that they are under some sort of control and not operating freely.

U.S. presses for information
The Iranians admit privately they have the al-Qaida officials and say they are “investigating” their activities. That does not impress Townsend.

“But the Iranians are not telling us who they have," she said. "They may be telling you and there may be things in their newspapers, but they're not telling us, and they were not talking about what, if anything, what progress, if any, has been made in terms of their investigation.”

Does the White House counterterrorism czar think there will be a trial of the al-Qaida officials anytime soon?

“No. I do not,” she said.

And does the United States have any kind of communication with Iran about the situation?

“I would refer you to the State Department,” Townsend said.

Isn’t that a matter that might go outside of channels?

“It could,” she said.

Talk of terrorist trade
In fact, says one former senior U.S. intelligence official, back-channel discussions have been a lot more concrete.

“The Iranians will not give you specific names, or at least they would never give us specific names. They would always duck the question,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

In fact, he said, Iran first proposed the exchange of al-Qaida operatives for leaders of the group Mujahedeen E. Khalk who are under U.S. control in Iraq. The MEK has been on the State Department’s list of terrorist organizations since 1998, when the Clinton administration was trying to open up lines of communications with Iran. The State Department blames the group for the killings of five Americans in the run-up to the Iranian revolution in 1979 and various murders and attacks on Iranian diplomats and civilians both inside and outside Iran.

In addition, Saddam Hussein had financed, trained and armed the MEK, even building the group a 5,000-man training facility in Fallujah (now being used by the U.S. Marines) and used them in the Iran-Iraq War and in cross-border attacks after the war.

“The exchange was never formally proposed, but several general offers were made through third parties, not all of them diplomatic,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“One reason nothing came of it was because we knew that there were parts of the U.S. government who didn't want to give them the MEK because they had other plans for them … like overthrowing the Iranian government.”

18 al-Qaida leaders reportedly in Iran
Even if there is no movement in U.S.-Iranian discussions, there have been indications over the past year of discussions between Arab states and Iran about the disposition of al-Qaida members in Iran.

There was a particularly intense and public flurry last summer, according to Sharq al-Awsat, the London-based Arab newspaper, which also reported that the total number of al-Qaida operatives in Iran was 348 and leaders 18.

In June, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi said his country had in the past given Saudi Arabia some useful information concerning members of bin Laden's network that it was detaining. He did not elaborate.

Sharq al Awsat also reported that Tehran handed over wanted Saudi militant Khaled bin Odeh bin Mohammed al-Harbi to Saudi authorities.

Syria weighs in
Riyadh believed the disabled militant, suspected of being an al-Qaida figure close to bin Laden, surrendered in mid-July under an amnesty after contacting the Saudi Embassy in Iran.

That reportedly followed a meeting at which Syrian President Bashar al-Assad convinced Tehran during a visit early this month of the "seriousness" of using al-Qaida elements in Iran as a card in its policy with the United States.

Most recently, there are reports in Iranian newspapers of the investigation proceeding and a comment by Saif a-Adel, the former military commander, in al-Quds, a radical London-based newspaper. Accompanying an article in which he praises Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, was a note saying that al-Adel had “a lot of free time” to write.

That, say U.S. officials, is a good thing.

posted by DoctorZin @ 6/25/2005 02:16:00 PM