Future of reform at stake in Iran presidency vote

Reuters:

Veteran Iranian cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani faces a hardline former Revolutionary Guardsman in presidential polls on Friday that will seal the fate of political reform and set the tone of ties with the West.

The vote, enlivened by charges of fraud and acerbic smear campaigns, has exposed deep class divisions in Iranian society and sparked heated rows among the Islamic state's top clerics.

Its outcome will likely determine whether outgoing President Mohammad Khatami's cautious domestic reforms and foreign policy of detente continue or grind to a halt.
The unpredictable election pitches former president Rafsanjani against Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who sent shivers through the business elite of OPEC's second biggest oil producer by taking second place in a first round on June 17.

But Ahmadinejad, 48, enjoys great support in the country of 67 million people among the urban and rural religious poor who view him as honest, hard-working and committed to the egalitarian ideals of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Ahmadinejad draws support from "those who feel socially, culturally and economically impoverished," said a political analyst, who asked not to be named. "In a way, this is shaping up as a conflict between modernity and tradition," he said.

Hundreds of Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad supporters debated fiercely, but peacefully, in squares throughout Tehran on Wednesday evening as the campaign drew to a close. Ahmadinejad backers handed out flowers while Rafsanjani fans waved banners. The prospect of an Ahmadinejad victory has prompted a wide range of pro-reform politicians, students, clerics and academics to endorse Rafsanjani, who was president from 1989 to 1997.

TIGHT RACE

Close Rafsanjani aide Mohammad Atrianfar predicted victory provided voter turnout was above 21 million. Some 29.3 million, 63 percent of eligible voters, cast ballots in the first round.

"It's a very tight race," Atrianfar told Reuters.

A nationwide survey of 6,101 people by the Iranian Students Polling Agency published on Wednesday showed 41.9 percent support for Ahmadinejad, 41.5 percent for Rafsanjani with the rest undecided or not answering. Opinion polls prior to the first round, however, were a poor guide to actual results. READ MORE

An Ahmadinejad victory would cement the control by ultra-conservatives over Iran's dual system of democratic and theocratic institutions following hardline successes in parliamentary and local council elections in 2003 and 2004.

"The danger is that, for the first time, there wouldn't be any moderating, balancing factor in the system," said political analyst Mahmoud Alinejad.

Rafsanjani, 70, a former conservative who now espouses more moderate views, portrays himself as the man to resolve problems with the West, including charges Iran is building atomic arms.

Ahmadinejad, in contrast, has criticized the passivity of Iran's current foreign policy and said that resuming relations which Washington broke off in 1980 would not solve Iran's woes.

He has denounced the stock market as akin to gambling and complained officials were squandering sky-high oil revenues and abetting an influx of immoral Western culture.

Reformers contend that Ahmadinejad's first round performance was boosted by organized support from the hardline Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia.

The reformist-held Interior Ministry said on Tuesday it was on guard against manipulation of Friday's vote. Rafsanjani said he would object loudly to any vote-rigging in the run-off.

Third-placed reformist cleric Mehdi Karroubi, who exchanged bitter words with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over alleged vote fraud, called on his supporters to back Rafsanjani.

"Go and vote. Otherwise they are going to make an Iranian Taliban here. The fanatics are coming, and people are not going to enjoy peace and security any longer," he said on Tuesday.

Ahmadinejad denies being backed by the Basij and says allegations he would enforce strict Islamic moral codes if elected are baseless smears.