Saturday, December 18, 2004

Iran's secret plans for 'nuclear' gas go ahead despite earlier promises

The UK's Telegraph reports:
Iran has drawn up secret plans to make large quantities of a gas that can be used to produce highly enriched uranium, despite promises to suspend enrichment activities.

Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, Iran's atomic energy chief, has authorised construction of a plant to make Anhydrous Hydrogen Fluoride (AHF), a gas that has many uses, from petrochemical processing to uranium enrichment. ...

The gas is not listed as a controlled nuclear technology, but it can be used during the process of turning uranium tetrafluoride into uranium hexafluoride, used in atom bombs. ...

China may have sold a blueprint for a facility to produce highly enriched uranium to Iran... more
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The Islamic Paradox

An important new book is being released soon. The American Enterpise Institute's Reuel Marc Gerecht examines the prospects for ending anti-American Islamic extremism and promoting democracy in the greater Middle East.

Gerecht argues that while the United States has too often favored "pro-American dictators" for fear that free elections might empower Muslim fundamentalists, the suffering of the people living under such dictators has bred anti-Americanism. The United States must align itself with the "growing Muslim belief that political legitimacy can only come from the ballot box" and realize that the critical players for a democratic transformation in the Middle East will be Shiite clerics and Sunni fundamentalists.more

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Iranian nuclear ambitions worry Gulf Arab states

The Financial Times reports Arab leaders unease with Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"The Gulf countries naturally see Iran as the big power, much more powerful than any Gulf state including Saudi Arabia, and as a country that needs to be balanced," says Gary Samore, non-proliferation expert at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies. "There's a complaint now in the Gulf - that the US has upset the natural balance because Saddam was seen as at least checking Iran's aspirations." more
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Russia vows to complete Iran nuclear plant by 2006

Russian Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev said of Iran's nuclear power plant in Bushehr:
"The physical launch of the (first) energy block should happen at the end of 2005 or the start of 2006, with it going on line in 2006," more
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Why we should be worried about Iran?

Accuracy in Media published an interesting summary of Iran's weapons programs. more

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Powell Optimistic on N. Korea, Iran

Powell said:
``The president is committed to finding a political, diplomatic solution. We believe that ultimately North Korea will determine that it is their best interest,'' he said.

Powell said there are no plans to launch a military strike on Iran, which has suspected nuclear weapons facilities, or to take military action in North Korea. Bush linked the two countries with Iraq as an ``axis of evil'' in 2002.

``In the Pentagon, people are always thinking about the unthinkable,'' Powell said of a potential Iranian strike. ``But there are no military plans about to be launched and there's no point in getting everybody excited about this.'' more
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EU leaders call on Iran to keep nuclear engagements

Leaders of the 25- member European Union on Friday called on Iran to keep its nuclear installations shut against closer relations with Europe. ...

The EU leaders insisted on the question of human rights as Amnesty International and other human rights organisation said that at least two Iranian women, one of them a mentally retarded girl faces capital punishment by stoning or execution. ...

While Iran wants the talks with EU are limited in time, the Troika wants Iran to keep the suspension indefinitely.

However, while Iran wants the talks with EU are limited in time in order to resume enriching uranium, the Troika that speaks on behalf of the union wants Iran to keep the suspension indefinitely. more

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Friday, December 17, 2004

Iran: Tehran Cracks Down On Independent Internet Journalists

Radio Free Europe reports on Iran's latest efforts to crack down on internet journalists inside of Iran. more

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Iran: Woman to Be Buried Up to Chest and Stoned to Death In The Next Five Days

Amnesty International reports, an Iranian woman charged with adultery faces death by stoning in the next five days after her death sentence was upheld by the Supreme Court last month. Her unnamed co-defendant is at risk of imminent execution by hanging. Amnesty International members are now writing urgent appeals to the Iranian authorities, calling for the execution to be stopped. more

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What Iran is after in Iraq

Amir Taheri explains Iran's sophisticated game it is playing in Iraq. more

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Iran needs to get serious: Bush isn't buying nukes lie

Dr. Jerome Corsi takes a look at the fantasy the EU3 and Iran are creating. more

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More MemriTV Videos

Secretary of the Iranian National Security Council, Hasan Rouhani: Technologically, We Have Obtained the Nuclear Fuel Cycle. To View Video Click Here.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Asafi: Secretary Powell Was Mistaken When He Thought Iranian FM Kharrazi Was Talking to Him; We Don't Think the US is in a Position to Attack Iran. To View Video Click Here.

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Carrots for Iran? Lessons from Libya

This is the first part of a two-part series on diplomacy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and looks at U.S.-European relations. The second part, to appear in a future PolicyWatch, will discuss the role of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, with particular focus on Russia and China. more

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Analysis: Rafsanjani Plots Iran Comeback

Reuters is attempting to reinvent Rafsanjani as a moderate needed to keep the US from dealing aggressively with Iran and its nuclear ambitions.
"The worse things go internationally and domestically for Iran over the next few months, the more that plays into Rafsanjani's hands,"said a senior political analyst in Tehran. ...

"The question facing the Iranian regime is whether the interest of the state lies in having a radical president who would fall in line with radical forces in the parliament," Amir Ali Nourbakhsh, a director at business consultants Atieh Bahar Consulting, more
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Thursday, December 16, 2004

Coming geopolitical quakes

Arnaud de Borchgrave writing for the Washington Times says that you can count on one geopolitical earthquake every 10 years. He see great possibilities in Iran.
Among the most interesting and optimistic librettos in the game of nations is peace in the Middle East made possible by a deal with Iran. Keeping this kind of negotiation with the ayatollahs secret in the age of the Internet and 4 million bloggers taxes credulity. It would also take a Henry Kissinger or a Zbigniew Brzezinski to pull it off. However, if successful, it would look something like this: more
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Iran rejects negotiations with US on N issue

Iran Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi on Wednesday rejected any talks with the United States.
"With the existing US hostile policies, there are no grounds for negotiations with Washington. If they deal with Iran on the basis of mutual respect and equality, then we would start talks with them like other countries," he said after a weekly cabinet meeting. more
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Wednesday, December 15, 2004

US changes sanctions to help Iranian dissidents

In a sign of things to come the US Treasury on Wednesday clarified U.S. trade sanctions against Iran(Cuba and Sudan), allowing publication of dissident and academic views.
"This new policy will ensure those dissident voices and others will be heard without undermining our sanctions policy."
Under the new Treasury rule U.S. citizens and firms are allowed to freely engage in Cuba, Iran and Sudan in most
"transactions necessary and ordinarily incident to the publishing of manuscripts, books, journals and newspapers..., in paper or electronic format." more
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Bush Urges Syria, Iran Not to Meddle in Iraq

President Bush urged Syria and Iran not to meddle in Iraq.
"We will continue to make it clear to both Syria and Iran that ... meddling in the internal affairs of Iraq is not in their interests," ...

"We expect there to be help in establishing a society in which people are able to elect their leaders, and ... we expect people to work with the Iraqi interim government to enforce borders to stop the flow of people and money that aim to help these terrorists," ...

"For the good of the area ... there ought to be a peaceful country where the different religions can come together," more
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Iran unconcerned about ElBaradei's fate at IAEA

Iran does not care whether Mohamed ElBaradei remains head of the U.N. atomic agency.
"We are not cooperating with the people of the IAEA but rather we are cooperating with an international agency.

"It does not matter to us who the secretary-general is," more
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Analysis: How Close Is Iran To The Bomb?

Radio Free Europe reports Iran has demonstrated a proven ability to enrich uranium, and has been developing an infrastructure that could eventually produce large quantities of weapons-grade material.
"They know how to drive, and now they just need to build a car," said a senior Western official in Vienna familiar with the Iranian situation. "Provided they don't hit any bottlenecks, they are about two to five years away," more
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Iraqi Official : Iran Is 'Number One Enemy'

Iraq's defense minister, Hazem Shaalan made a bold statement:
"When we arrested the commander of Jaish Mohammed we discovered that key to terrorism is in Iran, which this the number one enemy for Iraq,"...

"They are fighting us because we want to build freedom and democracy and they want to build an Islamic dictatorship and have turbaned clerics to rule in Iraq," more
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U.S. Has No Intention of Joining EU-Iran Talks

Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said Monday that Iran is willing to talk with the US about its nuclear program.
"If negotiations are on the basis of equality and mutual respect in the same way we are talking to Europeans now, there is no reason not to talk to others,"...
The US responded:
"What we believe is important is that ultimately Iran agree to end its nuclear weapons program, not just suspend it." more
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Congressman Warns of Iranian Attack on U.S.

Eli Lake of the NY Sun reveals Congressman's Curt Weldon's explosive new book on Iran's efforts to attack the US.
Rep. Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania has held a series of secret meetings in Paris with a former high-ranking official in the Shah's government who has correctly predicted, according to Mr. Weldon, a number of internal developments in Iran ranging from the regime's atomic weapons programs to its support for international terrorism, including Al Qaeda. ...

Weldon's source, whom he code-named "Ali," relayed allegations to the Pennsylvania lawmaker that an Iranian-backed terrorist cell is seeking to hijack Canadian airliners and crash them into an American reactor. ...

A summary of Ali's predictions were outlined in a November 2003 letter to the Republican chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, ...

For example, Ali first passed on the Iranian threat to the reactor at a Paris meeting on May 17, 2003.

On August 22, 2003, the Toronto Star reported the arrest of 19 people in Canada for immigration violations who were suspected of being connected in a terrorist conspiracy. One of the men in the cell was taking flight lessons and had flown an airplane directly over an Ontario nuclear power plant, according to the newspaper. ... more
We need to take this seriously.

Iran's Supreme leader has said they are at war in Iraq and his security advisor, Hassan Abbassi has threatened that they have already selected 29 sites for attack.

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Tuesday, December 14, 2004

Will Iran Win the Iraq War?

Reuel Marc Gerecht writing for the Wall Street Journal provides keen insight into the Iranian attempts to influence next months Iraq elections.
The strongest trump playing in favor of America and against Iran is Iraqi nationalism. ...

The Iraqi Shia retain enormous bitterness toward the U.S. for the failure of President George H.W. Bush to aid them during the great rebellion of '91, when the Shiites and Kurds rose up against Saddam Hussein after the first Gulf War. Tens of thousands of Shiites were slaughtered. But this bitterness also extends to Iran's clerical regime, which did virtually nothing to help their Iraqi "brethren." ... more
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The Future of the Iranian Nuclear Program, Part V - The Adventures of Chester

[The long-awaited return to the Iran series! See Part I, Part II, Part III, and Part IV.]

This post will examine the military capabilities of Iran. We want to know several levels of information:

a. What is the size of the Iranian military? What equipment and forces does it possess, and how much of each?
b. What is the disposition of the Iranian military? How well is it maintained, how frequently is it exercised, and in what capacity?
c. What is the experience of the Iranian military? Are its personnel battle-scarred veterans of past campaigns, or are they novices?
d. What is the philosophy of war of the Iranian military? How is war conceptualized within its services? more
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U.S. Options Few in Feud With Iran

LA Times reports:
Top diplomats from the United States and its closest allies gathered this fall in Washington to hammer out a common approach to Iran's nuclear ambitions. But the mood quickly soured.

Dispensing with the usual diplomatic niceties, Undersecretary of State John R. Bolton simply read aloud a U.S. position paper. In it, the administration refused to back European negotiations with Iran and instead insisted that Tehran be dragged before the United Nations Security Council to condemn it for concealing a nuclear weapons program.

Irked, the Europeans demanded to know what good it would do to bring Iran before the U.N. when Washington knew it could not muster enough Security Council votes even to slap Tehran's wrist.

Bolton referred them to another U.S. position paper.

"He was not willing to discuss anything," said one stunned participant.

The incident, sketched here from interviews with four people who either attended or are familiar with the meeting of officials from the Group of Eight industrialized nations, is circulating in the diplomatic world as evidence of European frustration with the Bush administration. more
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Ya'alon: West must be prepared to strike Iran

IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Moshe Ya'alon stated Monday that he hoped the EU negotiations with Iran would convince Iran to give up it's effort to gain nuclear weapons, but added:
If not we have to be prepared, and I am talking about the Western community, to use other options in order to eliminate the Iranian capabilities." more
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Iranian Official Reveals Details on Nuclear Facilities

MemriTV provides excerpts from an interview with Mohammad-Reza Sa'idi, International Affairs Deputyat the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization [IAEO]. more

To view the video, click here.

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Iran and Europeans Open a New Round of Negotiations

The EU3 joined the Iranians in Brussels in their next round of talks to convince Iran to make permanent its suspension of its uranium enrichment program.
To throw the weight of the European Union behind the process, Javier Solana, the group's foreign policy chief, also took part in the meeting on Monday.

"The negotiations we are embarking upon today can be indicative of the new chapter of our relations, not only with the three European countries, but with the European Union as a whole," Mr. Rowhani,... He added, "Our intention here is through political dialogue, we will establish such confidence that there will be no concern left for anyone." ...

The Europeans and the Iranians know that the United States can scuttle almost any agreement they may reach. more
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Monday, December 13, 2004

Kerry Opponent Taking Aim at New Target: Iran

LA Times reports that Swift Boat author, Jerome Corsi, wants to prepare the public for what he sees as a likely war with Iran.

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Will Iran Be Next? - Atlantic Monthly

Soldiers, spies, and diplomats conduct a classic Pentagon war game—with sobering results, by James Fallows.

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Feith to 'Post': US action against Iran can't be ruled out

US Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas J. Feith told The Jerusalem Post in an exclusive interview.
Feith stated that the US is now concentrating on "a process to try to get the existing international legal mechanisms – the nonproliferation treaty [and] the International Atomic Energy Agency – to work, to bring the kind of pressure to bear on Iran that would induce the Iranians to follow the path that Libya took in deciding that they were actually better off in abandoning their WMD [weapons of mass destruction] programs." more
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Sunday, December 12, 2004

ElBaradei Not to Attend Iran-E.U. Meeting in Brussels

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohammad ElBaradei, will probably not attend the meeting between Iran and the European Union in Brussels, the Iranian news service Mehr reported Saturday. more

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