Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [4/3-4/9] major news events regarding Iran.

The EU3 Negotiations with Iran:

France says "The talks are very fragile but we are progressing."

The Middle East Media Research Institute has just published an excellent review of the EU3/Iran negotiations, including statements by Iran's military leaders.

The French Ambassador to Tehran said the EU3 is developing a strategy for Iran which involves adopting new regulations that are to be taken as a model in the future.

Developments in Iran's Nuclear Program:

• The Dawn reports "how Iran was making gas centrifuges at a site in Tehran."
  

Iran's trouble making outside of Iran:

• Iran is paying for the Palestinian attacks aimed at shattering the fragile truce with Israel.
• Hamas and Hizbollah have signed a cooperation accord. Still, Hizbollah is signaling a willingness to discuss the fate of its military wing.

US Policy and Iran:

• Mark Hosenbal of Newsweek discussed the administrations mixed signals regarding the MEK. (The MEK are hosting a conference in Washington DC, this next week).
• The US has rejected an IAEA proposal for a five-year, global moratorium on enriching uranium and reprocessing plutonium.

Iran's economy:

• In Iran, the average minimum and monthly wage is $120 a month, forcing some to look for food in city waste-bins.
• Iran-France economic ties will develop at a rapid pace over the next six months.

Human Rights/Freedom of the press inside of Iran:

• Reporters Without Borders deplored a series of new negative developments for press freedom.
• The BBC reported that Iran's parliament barred an investigative journalist from its premises after revealing the MPs' huge pay and bonuses.
• The Christian Post wrote that an Iranian Assemblies of God lay pastor was arrested seven months ago and is facing the death penalty.
• Human Rights Watch said the upcoming report by Iran's powerful judiciary about the mistreatment and torture of bloggers and internet journalists in custody must begin a process of full accountability for serious human rights abuse.

Popular struggle for freedom inside of Iran:

• At least 1,500 anti-government protests, strikes, and clashes took place in Iran during the year that ended on March 20.
• The 70 million people of Iran, an Iranian opposition group inside of Iran, published a warning to western governments that contracts with Iran after June 16 will be null and void.
• SMCCDI reported many violent clashes in several western Iranian cities and then still more, more and more violent clashes.
  

Popular struggle for freedom outside of Iran:

• Dr. Jerome Corsi will lead a 128-mile walk from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., to promote peaceful, democratic change in Iran.
• Kathryn Jean Lopez, said "Supporting Iranian Youth's Freedom Quest Right Thing to Do."
• Controversial Iranian dissident Mohsen Sazegara joined The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
• A new documentary, Coming Out: The Youth of Iran, provides a look at the youth of Iran and the politics of sexuality. View it here.
• The "Nemazee Vs. SMCCDI/Pirouznia" trial is set to begin, Tuesday April 12, 2005. The trial is over the question of whether SMCCDI's director slandered a major Kerry fundraiser by claiming he was promoting the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Lunacy in the west:

• Canada deported a record number of Iranian refugees back to Iran last year. At the same time Canada gave asylum to the Doctor, who attended to Ms. Kazemi (a reporter murdered by the regime); who fled Iran to expose the regime's cruelty.
  

Iran's Neighbors:

• A prominent Iraqi daily accused Iran's leadership of dispatching mercenaries to one of Shiite Iraq's holiest cities.
• Israel's president said he shook hands and spoke briefly to the leaders of Syria and Iran at the Vatican funeral of Pope John Paul. Iran's President denies it.
• Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko confirmed Ukraine sold nuclear-capable cruise missiles to Iran.

Middle East Experts:

• Dr. Corsi gave an overview of the threat presented by the Iranian regime to the Heritage Foundation. Click here to listen. CSPAN will air the lecture 4/10 7PM EST.
• The American Thinker points out how the international community is ignoring the plight of the women of Iran.
• Michael Ledeen writing about the Kazemi murder in Iran reminds us that the brutal treatment of Iranian women by the mullahcracy is a daily occurrence, not an isolated case. The adds, saving the women of Iran may save us.

And finally, The Quote of the Week:

Head of Iranian Nuclear Negotiating Team Sirus Nasseri said the U.S. and the EU should "get used to the idea of a nuclear Iran."

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 4.9.2005:

1,500 political protests in Iran last year

At least 1,500 anti-government protests, strikes, and clashes took place in Iran during the year that ended on March 20.

More than 450 strikes, demonstrations, and gatherings by white- and blue-collar workers, were reported in state-run and opposition media. Some strikes, such as the one by coal miners in Sangroud, lasted for more than 50 days. ...

The next major sector of society to have been involved in anti-government protests were student groups. Over 330 strikes... READ MORE

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• A prominent Iraqi daily accused Iran's leadership of dispatching mercenaries to one of Shiite Iraq's holiest cities.
• Mary Baldwin in The New Leader asks, "Searching for WMD? Look No Further than Iran."
• Islamic Republic News Agency writes that Iranian President Mohammad Khatami strongly denied Israeli media allegations that he had met with Israel's president Moshe Katzav during funeral procession for the World Catholic Church Leader Pope John Paul II. The NY Times weighs in.
• SMCCDI reports violent clashes continued, yesterday and this evening, in several western Iranian cities and then still more.
• And finally, the MEK are hosting a conference in Washington DC, next week.

1,500 political protests in Iran last year

Iran Focus:

At least 1,500 anti-government protests, strikes, and clashes took place in Iran during the year that ended on March 20.

More than 450 strikes, demonstrations, and gatherings by white- and blue-collar workers, were reported in state-run and opposition media. Some strikes, such as the one by coal miners in Sangroud, lasted for more than 50 days.

Non-payment of salaries, insufficient pay, and the privatisation of many sectors of work were the main reasons reported for the majority of the strikes. It was widely reported that a great number of civil servants did not receive during the New Year period and were forced to start the year without basic household goods.

The next major sector of society to have been involved in ant-government protests were student groups. Over 330 strikes, protests and political gatherings by students were reported over the past year. Their protests were coupled by teachers’ strikes, which numbered 110 during the same time.

A further 550 demonstrations and social actions took place throughout Iranian towns and cities, making the past year one of the most volatile in Iran. READ MORE

Social unrest on the rise

Recent demonstrations include those during Iran’s World Cup qualifier match with Japan, International Women’s Day, and the national 'fire' festival of Chahar-shanbeh Souri.

At least seven people were killed and dozens left injured outside the Azadi stadium in Tehran after anti-government protests erupted at the end of the Iran–Japan World Cup qualifier football match on March 25.

Eye-witnesses reported that the regime used special anti-riot units and hundreds of State Security Forces (SSF) to launch an offensive on the 100,000-strong crowd, after spectators started chanting anti-government slogans.

Shortly after the start of the game, young people disfigured large portraits of Ayatollah Khomeini and the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to witnesses.

Handmade firecrackers were reportedly hurdled at the SSF forces stationed around the stadium. State television stopped broadcasting images from the crowd once smoke from the firecrackers was apparent.

Dozens of buses in Tehran were damaged during the ensuing clashes which lasted for several hours.

On the event of International Women's Day on March 9, at least 1,000 women staged a demonstration at central Tehran’s Laleh Park. Clashes erupted between the protesters and State Security Forces (SSF) as local residents reported tight security in the vicinity of the park since daybreak.

"We are only marching quietly. You are afraid of women. You will see what will happen when women finally stand up", one woman shouted, as agents rushed to silence her.

Leaflets calling for "regime change" were distributed throughout the crowd. ...

Elsewhere, the ending ceremony of the sixth national student newspaper festival turned into a demonstration in early March as over 1,000 students from universities across the city of Mashad (northeast Iran) heckled the regime's Minister of Health, forcing him to flee the event.

Students took the podium and jeered the government minister, shouting slogans and demanding the release of political prisoners and an end to the crackdown on students in Iran's universities.

On march 15 Tehran was left in a standstill as the population poured into the streets to mark the national 'fire' festival of Chahar-shanbeh Souri despite intense pressures by the Iranian regime to prevent a possible uprising.

Eye-witnesses reported that full-size puppets of high-ranking officials, such as Khamenei and the regime's president Mohammad Khatami, were set on fire by youths at numerous locations throughout the Iranian capital. Trucks belonging to Iran's security forces were also set ablaze.

"Guns, tanks, the Bassij (Para-military security forces) no longer have an effect", large crowds shouted in central Tehran, as they took part in the traditional celebrations where Iranians jump over fires ablaze on the streets. ...

Iran poised to infiltrate Iraqi holy city

Iran Focus:

A prominent Iraqi daily accused Iran’s leadership of dispatching mercenaries to one of Shiite Iraq’s holiest cities.

The Al-Farat daily reported that Iranian agents were planning to infiltrate Karbala following the establishment of Iraq’s new interim-government. READ MORE

Karbala, the fighting ground and martyrdom place of Hussein ibn Ali, one of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandsons, is revered by all Shiite Muslims.

“The secret presence of Iranian agents is in preparation for their entry into Karbala”, the daily said.

“Accounts have surfaced that a number of Iranian agents have conducted activities in hotels secretly or through their representatives in this province, others have bought or rented land for the construction of hotels”, it added.

The daily cited sources that indicated that the agents meddling would begin after the establishment of the new government, adding, “After the spread of terrorism from neighbouring countries, Dr. Ayad Allawi (Iraq’s current Prime Minister) prevented many Iranian agents from entering Iraq”.

Violent clashes rock central Iran

SMCCDI (Information Service):

Violent clashes happened, this morning, in Darioon which is a suburb of Shiraz located in central Iran. Hundreds of protesters retaliated against the brutal attack of the Islamic regime's militiamen sent to smash their peaceful demonstration.

Hand made incendiary devices and pieces of stone responded to the militiamen use of rubber bullets, clubs and tear gas.

Slogans against the regime and its leadership were shouted by maverick demonstrators who closed "Shiraz-Kharameh" highway with enflamed tires and construction materials.

Tens of demonstrators were injured or arrested by Pasdaran elite forces who were able to establish the 'order' by beginning of afternoon.

The situation is very tense in the area and all accesses have been placed under surveillance.

Searching for WMD? Look No Further than Iran

Mary Baldwin, The New Leader:

Since 2001, the search to create a more secure United States has led President Bush to focus on dangers posed by terrorists who might mount a new attack using weapons of mass destruction. Improved border, airport, and port security has been joined to a foreign policy focused on two important goals: spreading democracy and disarming rogue states that might pass WMD to the terrorists.

After the swift elimination of the terrorists' safe harbor in Afghanistan in 2001, and the equally swift removal of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, further steps toward disarming the rogues have been few. Libya voluntarily gave up its extensive WMD programs shortly after Hussein's capture in December 2003. But North Korea and Iran, centerpieces of Bush's famous "axis of evil" speech in 2002, remain problematic. North Korea openly and repeatedly has declared itself now to have nuclear bombs, a claim that seems certain to divert us from taking an Iraq-like road to deal with them.

Iran also remains a problem, for here we confront an Islamic regime that denies it has WMD much like the Hussein regime denied it had WMD prior to its 2003 overthrow. A new presidential report from the "Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction," released in late March, confirms what the CIA's Charles Duelfer had found last September: Iraq did not have WMD. Much like the skeptical voice of the United Nations' Hans Blix prior to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, so today does the U.N.' International Atomic Energy Agency contend that no proof of Iran's nuclear WMD exists.

America's reputation, not merely that of its intelligence agencies, was badly damaged when no WMD turned up in Iraq. Too narrowly was the case for war with Iraq made: Its human rights violations and its open involvement in international terrorism were also sound grounds upon which to have made the case for removal of Saddam Hussein. The post-war transformation of Iraq into a democracy, faltering as that process is from time to time, may yet salvage the U.S. effort there. But there are lessons to be learned in this which can guide policy toward the remaining members of the "axis of evil."

Iran is deeply involved in international terrorism, and has a human rights record that makes Achilles' heel look like a steel-soled boot. Regarding terrorism, the tie goes right to the top: In January 2005, "Supreme Leader" Ali Khamenei reminded the world of Iran's terrorist intentions when he again referred to British author Salman Rushdie as under an order for "capital punishment." The murder of Rushdie — a British resident who never has been Iranian — first was demanded in 1989 by Khamenei's predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, after Rushdie wrote a book, "The Satanic Verses," that Khomeini found to defame Islam. But terroristic threats are not all that links the Islamic Republic of Iran to terrorism. Recently, Hamid Reza Zakiri, a senior official in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, defected to the West and confirmed Iranian ties to the bombing of the U.S. Embassy and Marines' barracks in Beirut, Lebanon in 1983. Zakiri also described meetings of Iranian officials with al-Qaida operatives prior to the 9/11 attacks, and named the Iranian-funded terrorist who served as liaison to Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two man in al-Qaida. READ MORE

If ties to terrorists, murdering U.S. Marines two decades ago, and continuing to attempt to kill a British resident do not qualify as sufficient grounds to confront the Islamic Republic of Iran, the case of Zahra Kazemi might convince even skeptical readers. Kazemi, a Canadian photojournalist of Iranian heritage, visited Tehran to cover student protests against the ruling mullahs in summer 2003. Arrested, tortured, and killed while in the custody of Iranian security services, the Kazemi case has churned up a kettle of ill will between our neighbors to the north and Iran. In 2003, Iran refused to return Kazemi's body to Canada so her family could have an autopsy performed. In 2004, Iran barred observers from a bogus trial of Kazemi's killer, then acquitted him; Ottawa then recalled its ambassador. Finally, in early April of this year, an Iranian medical doctor, Shahram Azam, defected and described publicly the "horrific" signs of abuse he saw over the entirety of the Canadian woman's body. Azam also stated that Kazemi had been raped while in Iranian custody.

The Zahra Kazemi case illuminates the essence of evil that is the Islamic Republic of Iran. It is a regime that kills opponents, foreign or domestic. It is a regime that has crushed the freedom of Iranian women for decades. It is a regime intimately tied to the most dangerous groups of international terrorists — al-Qaida and Hezbollah. There remains some doubt about whether Iran also is building nuclear WMD. But there already exists a sufficient basis not just to label it "evil." In order to unify America with Canada and the thoughtful among its European friends, what we now need is a coordinated policy to bring pressure leading to a change of regime in Iran.

Write Mary Baldwin College political science Professor Gordon Bowen at gbowen@mbc.edu

Translating the Body Language of Hands Extended, and Not

David E. Sanger and Steven Erlanger, The New York Times:

Papal funerals are not supposed to be about diplomacy, but put this many world leaders in one section of St. Peter's Square, and diplomacy happens. And so, at the funeral of Pope John Paul II, there was news about a president of the United States who did not shake the hands of two Middle Eastern adversaries, and a president of Israel who did. READ MORE

The ceremony put President Bush in rare, close proximity to the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and President Mohammad Khatami of Iran. But he did not use it as an opportunity to talk directly with Mr. Assad, with whom his administration has been sparring over Lebanon and Iraq. And while administration officials describe Mr. Khatami as a moderate among Iran's leaders, Mr. Bush had no contact with him, either.

But Israel's president, Moshe Katsav, made the opposite choice. Mr. Assad was one row in back of him, and at one point they exchanged polite smiles. Later, they shook hands, which seemed a remarkable step for leaders of two countries that are still technically at war. Syria's official news agency dismissed the incident as a formality with "no political significance" and said they did not speak, Reuters reported. ...

Mr. Katsav, who was born in Iran, said he did speak to Mr. Khatami, whose nation says it wants Israel destroyed. Mr. Katsav recalled later that as he was leaving at the end of the funeral, "The Iranian president held his hand out to me. I shook his hand and greeted him in Farsi." In Israel, media reports said the men conversed about Yazd, the city in central Iran where both were born.

"Maybe today will make us hope of a future of peace, not of conflict and hatred," Mr. Khatami was quoted as saying in Corriere della Sera, an Italian newspaper.

[On Saturday, Mr. Khatami denied shaking hands with Mr. Katsav, the official IRNA news agency said, according to Reuters. "I strongly deny shaking hands, meeting and talking to the Israeli president," Mr. Khatami told IRNA, Reuters reported.]

A senior administration official, reached by telephone in Washington, said it was unclear whether Mr. Bush was close enough to either the Syrian or Iranian leaders to speak with them, much less shake hands. "Even if he had been," the official said, "I don't think it would be like the president to initiate that kind of gesture. The moment would be too fraught."

On his flight back to Texas after leaving Rome, Mr. Bush said that he had chatted with President Jacques Chirac of France on the fringes of the ceremony, but he made no mention of the Iranian and Syrian leaders, and was not asked about them.

He said he was focused during the ceremony on memories of the pope, whom he described as "a clear thinker who was like a rock."

"And tides of moral relativism kind of washed around him, but he stood strong as a rock," Mr. Bush said.

Iran's President Denies Meeting Israeli President

Islamic Republic News Agency:

President Mohammad Khatami here on Friday strongly denied Israeli media allegations that he had met with Israel's president Moshe Katzav during funeral procession for the World Catholic Church Leader Pope John Paul II in Vatican.

Upon return home, Khatami said, "These allegations are false like other allegations made by Israeli media and I have not had any meeting with any one from Zionist Regime."

Israeli media reported Friday that during the Pope's funeral ceremony, Khatami held brief talks with Katzav.

Pointing to Iran's stances toward Zionist Regime, Khatami said, "As reiterated many times, we do not both morally and logically recognize Israel which was created based on force and usurpation." Khatami said that recognizing Israel means that occupation and force are rooted in legitimacy, adding "To me, recognizing the existence of the state of Israel would be an injustice to humankind. READ MORE

"And if it is approved that presence and existence of the people by force and occupation are legitimate, then humanity would suffer." "We do not meddle in efforts for peace but hope that world would know why all peace-making plans have been unsuccessful; Doesn't that point to wrong nature of the peace plans?" asked Khatami. ...

On presence of Iran's high-ranking delegation in Pope's funeral ceremony, Khatami said the Pope was a spiritual personality in the world and was a harbinger of morality and spirituality, adding Pope always stressed peace, co-existence and campaign against the materialistic and spiritually destructive factors affecting life.

Unrest and violence continue in western Iran

SMCCDI (Information Service):

Violent clashes continued, yesterday and this evening, in several western Iranian cities, such as, Mahabad, Baneh and Piranshahr. Hundreds of protesters came, again, into streets in order to call for a democratic change in Iran despite the heavy presence of Islamic regime's forces. READ MORE

A death and tens of injured have been reported from Mahabad alone. Additional forces sent from Marivan are unable to establish full order. Molavi area and Heyvanat Square accesses are often blocked by enflamed tires.

Slogans against the Islamic regime and its leadership are consistently shouted by protesters in chase and run actions.

Several security agents have been also injured in the clashes by armed masked individuals. Several official buildings and banks have been heavily damaged by fire.

Protesters have been energized, since Wednesday, by the events in Iraq and its electoral process having lead to the election of the new Iraqi executive.

Few Kurdish independentists tried also to transform these rallies in their favor but their calls were ignored by residents as most Iranian Kurds believe strongly in the territorial integrity of Iran. Most leaders of Iranian Kurdish parties have confirmed their attachment to Iran in various meetings or interviews. Islamic regime intelligence circles' are known for fueling independentist rumors in order to create fear of a split of Iran in case if the theocracy is overthrown.

MEK in host conference in Washington DC

The MEK is hosting a conference in Washington DC, April 14th, 2005 entitled: 2005 National Convention for a Democratic, Secular Republic in Iran.

The leader of the MEK, Maryam Rajavi is scheduled to address the conference. The MEK is a marxist oriented Iranian opposition movement and is considered a terrorist organization by the US government. The MEK are attempting to convince the US government to remove it's terrorist designation. READ MORE

The conference purpose is to: To gain the trust of Iranian people, we must adopt a sincere policy devoid of any obstacles for the Iranian Resistance. Rejecting appeasement is indispensable to the policy towards Tehran.

To gain the support of Americans, President Bush must work to adopt a firm policy in dealing Tehran's nuclear and terrorism threat.

To achieve a real solution, America must support a third option, which is to allow the Iranian people and Resistance change the regime in Tehran.

The conference will be held at DAR Constitution Hall, Washington, D.C.

UPDATE: Some fellow bloggers are inferring that I am a supporter of the MEK because of this post. I am not an MEK supporter. I posted the story so others would know that the MEK was coming to DC. The website for the conference did not make clear it’s sponsorship, thus my post.

Friday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 4.8.2005:

The "Nemazee Vs. SMCCDI/Pirouznia" trial is to open, in Dallas,Texas, on Tuesday April 12, 2005.

The trial follows a long legal procedure raised over the influence exerted by some of the Islamic regime's apologists on the US Electoral process and their desperate try to promote relations between the US and the unpopular Mullahcracy in Iran. READ MORE

When I spoke with SMCCDI's director he mentioned that they desperately need financial help. You can contact SMCCDI immediately by calling (214) 906-8181.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• The US Alliance for Democratic Iran reports that the EU capitals made a shameful choice a long time ago: Euro over human rights.
• Israel's president said he shook hands with the leaders of Syria and Iran at the Vatican funeral of Pope John Paul, twice. He also spoke with Khatami.
• Iranian officials are confident that the Islamic republic is not vulnerable to a "velvet" revolution.
• Reporters Without Borders today deplored a series of new negative developments for press freedom.
• "Atomic Iran" author Jerome Corsi will lead a 128-mile walk from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., to help promote peaceful, democratic change in Iran and call on Iranians to protest their June 17 "sham" election.
• Sen. Saxby Chambliss said the United States lacks human spies in North Korea and Iran. But he hasn't yet read the classified portions of the report.
• Amir Taheri warns, that when reading the presidential commission on prewar intelligence, it is important not to draw wrong conclusions from the commission's report.
• The Jerusalem Post suggests the next 12 months will be crucial for democratic forces in Iraq.
• Lebanon's Hizbollah is signaling a willingness to discuss the fate of its military wing.
• The Economist believes Mr Bush may force its leaders to start thinking strategically about the world beyond their back yard.
• Can Hezbollah become a mainstream player in Lebanese politics? President Bush apparently hopes so.
• Iraq's presidential council was sworn in Thursday and named Shiite Arab Ibrahim al-Jaafari to the country's most powerful position -- interim prime minister.
• C-SPAN will broadcast a Heritage Foundation lecture by author Jerome Corsi who warned events are unfolding that likely will lead to a showdown with Iran this year.

"Nemazee Vs. SMCCDI/Pirouznia" trial opens on April 12th

SMCCDI (Information Service):

The "Nemazee Vs. SMCCDI/Pirouznia" trial is to open, in Dallas,Texas, on Tuesday April 12, 2005, at 09:00 AM. The trial follows a long legal procedure raised over the influence exerted by some of the Islamic regime's apologists on the US Electoral process and their desperate try to promote relations between the US and the unpopular Mullahcracy in Iran. READ MORE

A mandatory mediation which took place on March 15th in Dallas, didn't end to any type of agreement. Aryo B. Pirouznia, the Movement's Coordinator, refused to give up to the requests made by Nemazee's lawyers in order to retract the accusations made against their controversial client.

Nemazee, a mega financier based in New York, has been a major source of contribution to U.S. Democratic nominees and officials. As a part of his rewards, he was sent by President Clinton among the U.S. delegation to France in order to assist the Iran-US game in the last Soccer World cup. He was also nominated as to become the US Ambassador to Argentina but his nomination did not go through following the publication, by Forbes Magazine, of an article revealing some of his dark activities and financial records.

Nemazee later ended up as a high rank official of the notorious "American Iranian Council" (AIC) which is headed by Hooshang Amir-Ahmadi who is known as the "Broker of Death" by many Iranians. This lobby group is well known for actively pushing for the promotion of US ties with the Islamic regime. Nemazee, as its board member, is known for having made public speeches, in presence of various US lawmakers including Senator Kerry, promoting ties with the Mullahs regime.

According to the public statement made by one of his colleagues, it was Nemazee who opened the way for the group to the highest levels of the U.S. Democratic Party. He had even introduced the gang to Senator J. Biden who was rewarded by an astonishing fundraiser held at IMAN Islamist center of Los Angeles. Biden is known for having promoted ties with the theocratic regime and IMAN's founder is also a board member of AIC.

The group was discredited by the media following its constant denouncement by groups such as SMCCDI, the Presidency of George W. Bush, and in the aftermath of the 9/11 tragedy. Nemazee and several other board members officially resigned from AIC and started to build up new entities such as IAPAC and NIAC who are in close collaboration. Officially, these two groups are not involved in U.S. policy in reference to Iran but the reality is something else as they are playing a more subtle game, having the knowledge that they are under constant watch.

Another of Nemazee's closest friends, Faraj Aalaei, is also co-founder of IAPAC. Aalaei's wife, Susan Akbarpour, has been the subject of an investigation report titled, "Dirty Moolah," published in The American Spectator by Kenneth Timmerman (October 2004). The report revealed Akbarpour's close connections to various Islamic regime circles including the Rafsanjani clan, as well as her goals of promoting the Islamic Republic in the U.S.

The knowledge of Nemazee's background, activities, and dark records brought SMCCDI to protest against the presence of Senator Kennedy at IAPAC's launch gala in July 2003. Exposed, Nemazee first threatened suit in September 2003, but stopped short of suing SMCCDI and its Coordinator.

In February 2004, the Movement addressed a firm protest letter to Presidential Candidate John Kerry for some of his remarks and actions in reference to the Mullahcracy. Senator Kerry had stated during his campaign that, "Iran is becoming democratic" and, in a controversial e-mail sent to democrats abroad, promised to establish ties with Iran if elected. The content of the e-mail was published in the Iranian media.

Making matters worse, Senator Kerry proposed later "to make a nuclear deal" with the fanatic mullahs.

Nemazee, who is also a close friend and a main fundraiser of John Kerry, sued the Movement and its Coordinator, for 10 Million of dollars each, before getting sued himself for a frivolous lawsuit. Many believe that he hoped to silence the Movement by such miscalculation which will fuel the US media in an electoral context.

In a move which was quite unnecessary and unprecedented for a defamation case, Nemazee and his legal counsel tried to get the names of all SMCCDI members and affiliates, including those involved with this opposition group inside Iran. Such a request is not only unnecessary for this case, but would have resulted in the endangerment of the lives of those SMCCDI members inside Iran who are opposing a regime which has been notorious for the imprisonment, torture, and execution of such political opposition activists.

For this reason, Pirouznia stood firm in refusing to give in to the requests of Nemazee and his legal counsel even with the declaration that he could be jailed for resisting the request which would have undermined the privacy and security of SMCCDI's members and affiliates.

In a revealing move, Nemazee and his legal counsel retracted their request for acquiring the SMCCDI affiliate names after articles in the Washington Times and FrontPage Magazine shed light on Nemazee and his cause.

Tens of other articles were written in newspapers such as the Washington Times, New York Sun, Los Angeles Times, WorldNet Daily, FrontPage Magazine, Insight Magazine and WorldTribune.Com, speaking of the case and/or mentioning its ramifications. Tens of radio talk shows across the U.S. gave coverage to the case, especially in Florida and Ohio, by speaking to the Movement's Coordinator, the SMCCDI legal team, or advisers.

A Press Conference was even held at the Washington DC's National Press Club on October 14, 2004, during which the SMCCDI Coordinator denounced Nemazee's activities and his try to silence the Movement. Several speakers, such as the famous investigative reporter, Kenneth Timmerman and Jerome Corsi, were among the panelists discussing "Islamic Regime Influence in the U.S." beside Aryo B. Pirouznia.

The prospect of such a public scandal was to the point that a desperate Nemazee hired the paid services of an unscrupulous PR adviser named Eleanor Benador in order to carry a smear campaign intending to diminish the impact of the press conference. Benador had even made an unsuccessful trip to Dallas, earlier in summer, in order to dissuade Aryo B. Pirouznia to counter sue Nemazee.

Nemazee acknowledged her hiring during his mandatory deposition made under oath.

A specific website with information regarding this case has been created by SMCCDI's legal team under the name of www.regimeinfluence.com

When I spoke with Aryo he mentioned that they desperately need financial help. You can contact SMCCDI immediately by calling (214) 906-8181.

Standing up to the Mullahs

The US Alliance for Democratic Iran:

Alas, it had to be Zahra Kazemi’s life to again bring the world’s attention to the barbaric treatment Iranians, particularly women, get from Iran’s ruling regime. Still, it is very quiet out there. There was no condemnation and no serious international response to hold Tehran to account for its murderous conduct in light of new appalling revelations. READ MORE

The 54-year-old Iranian-Canadian photojournalist was murdered in prison in June 2003. She was arrested outside of Tehran’s notorious Evin prison while taking photographs of the families of young Iranians arrested during student protests against the ruling theocracy.

According to a former Iranian army doctor who examined her before she died in a military hospital emergency room, Kazemi was beaten, tortured and raped. Dr. Shahram Azam, who recently received political asylum in Canada, has told Canadian media that Kazemi was brought from Evin prison unconscious with bruises all over her body. She had a skull fracture, two broken fingers, missing fingernails, a crushed big toe and a smashed nose, deep scratches on the neck and evidence of flogging on the legs and back.

Still Western capitals from Washington to London, were intentionally silent in condemnation of Tehran’s barbaric murder of Kazemi. The EU’s faltering nuclear negotiations with Tehran, it seems, has left them speechless in denouncing the mullahs’ blatant murder of Kazemi. Washington, eager not to appear hindering the EU-Tehran meaningless nuclear talks, has kept a low profile on this and other rights violations in Iran. Canadian government’s statements in light of new revelations amounted to nothing more than a rehash of its previous positions. Human rights organizations have not faired any better.

Kazemi’s case opens a window into the role Iranian women are playing against the tyranny of mullahs. Make no mistake, as an Iranian woman who in her capacity as a journalist defied the mullahs, her gender was the main reason to arouse the barbaric wrath of the theocratic establishment. Her tragic murder made Kazemi the face of thousands of Iranian women who have died or have been tortured in the hands of mullahs for daring to make a stand for freedom and resisted their tyranny.

Kazemi’s brave defiance of the mullahs by no means was an isolated case. From the 1906 Constitutional movement to the 1979 anti-monarchic revolution to the nationwide resistance to the ruling theocracy, women have always been a key component of anti-dictatorial movements in Iran.

Misogyny is the lynch pin of the fundamentalist ideology ruling Iran. Institutionalized violence is carried out in the name of God. No other government in the world has executed as many women as the Iranian regime has since the 1979 revolution. A common method of punishing women in public is by stoning them to death. At least 14 women have been sentenced to stoning or stoned to death since 1997 when Mohammad Khatami came to office. Iran has had the highest number of female prisoners in the world.

The women in Iran, of course, have persevered. When they rise against oppression, they shake the regime to its foundations. Just last month, an anti-government riot erupted in Tehran following a soccer match between Iran and Japan. Women who are banned from attending soccer matches actively took part in this riot calling for the overthrow of the mullahs.

It is outright unconscionable that as the new revelations about Kazemi’s murder made it through international media, the mullahs’ president Mohammad Khatami received a red-carpet welcome in Austria and France. Eager to strike new lucrative deals with Tehran, the EU has made of a mockery of its long-held claim to be the land of upholding human rights. When it comes to choosing between commerce and Zahra Kazemis of Iran, the EU capitals made their choice a long time ago: Euro over human rights.

The most meaningful comment about Kazemi’s case was probably made last week by her son, Stephan Hashemi. "I'm continuing what my mother has started by standing up to the Iranian regime," he said. And that is exactly what men and women of Iran will do to bring the ruling tyrants down.

Israel, Mideast Foes in Historic Handshake at Vatican

Jeffrey Heller, Reuters:

Israel's president said he shook hands with the leaders of Syria and Iran at a Vatican funeral Friday when in his death Pope John Paul brought together Middle East foes as no man alive ever had. READ MORE

Gathered with hundreds of international dignitaries, Israel's Moshe Katsav had historic chance encounters with President Bashar Assad of Syria, a country formally at war with the Jewish state, and President Mohammad Khatami of Iran.

A senior Israeli government official said it was too early to say whether the contacts, believed to be the first time an Israeli president had shaken hands with Syrian and Iranian leaders, would translate into future diplomacy.

There was no immediate comment from Iran or Syria on the encounters, first reported by Israel Radio. Nor was it clear whether they were captured on film or videotape.

"The Syrian president sat in the chair behind me ... we exchanged smiles and shook hands," Katsav, who holds a largely ceremonial post as head of state, was quoted as telling the Web site of Israel's Maariv newspaper.

The Iranian-born Katsav also said he spoke at the Vatican funeral in his native Farsi with Khatami about their common city of birth. Iran officially seeks Israel's destruction.

"The president of Iran extended his hand to me, I shook it and told him in Farsi 'may peace be upon you'," Katsav told the Web site.

He said he later shook Assad's hand a second time during the funeral, apparently when guests were urged to demonstrate a gesture of goodwill toward those around them.

"This time it was the Syrian president who held out his hand to me," Katsav was quoted as saying.

'HISTORIC ENCOUNTER'

"Historic encounter in Rome," Israel's largest-circulation daily Yedioth Ahronoth headlined in its Web site report on the meeting.

The Israeli and Syrian delegations had been seated next to each other. Their negotiators last held peace talks in 2000 which foundered over the future of the Golan Heights occupied by Israel since the 1967 Middle East war.

Syria has called repeatedly for the talks to resume. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has said Syrian forces must first pull out of Lebanon and stop supporting Lebanese guerrillas and Palestinian militants before Israel would consider negotiations.

Katsav has tried before to carve out a role in restarting Israeli-Syrian contacts. In January 2004, he invited Assad to Jerusalem for talks, an offer Damascus dismissed as a propaganda stunt.

Israel has also accused Tehran of supporting anti-Israel militants and has been a fierce critic of Iran's nuclear program.

"It's hard to tell the significance of a handshake," the Israeli official said. "The question is whether there is going to be a change in these countries' policy, which is to destroy the Jewish state."

Iranian Leaders Give Mixed Responses To Pope's Death

Dow Jones Newswires, AP:

Iran 's leaders showed sharply different reactions to the death of Pope John Paul II Friday, with liberal President Mohammad Khatami personally attending the Pope's funeral as a gesture of respect while the Islamic Republic's supreme leader failing even to send a cable of condolence. READ MORE

Khamenei's snub is reportedly prompted by the wide belief in Iran that the Pope failed to issue a formal message of condolence when the founder of Iran 's 1979 Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, died in 1989. Khomeini is often described by Iran 's state-run media as "leader of the world's Muslims."

However, John Paul did comment on Khomeini's death during a 1989 visit to Finland, saying: "it is necessary to state with great respect and with deep reflection his impact on his country and a considerable part of the world."

In his Friday prayer sermons, former Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani praised John Paul for his opposition to the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, but said the late Pope fell short of full condemnation.

"They (the Vatican) should shout at America loudly. They should tell the Americans that the crimes they commit are discrediting Jesus because they are getting the vote of the American people in the name of Jesus and the church," Rafsanjani told thousands of worshippers.

"Popes cannot preach the teachings of Jesus and ignore the crimes committed by the U.S. throughout the world."

Rifts between the West and Islam will likely influence how the next pope measures his priorities. Relations with Islam - and who is best equipped to handle the delicate questions - is emerging as one of the factors that is expected to shape the decision of the cardinals when they gather this month to pick the 265th pontiff.

Iran's Leadership Views "Velvet Revolution" Trend with Caution

Ardeshir Moaveni, Eurasianet:

Iranian officials believe revolutionary developments in the former Soviet Union, including the recent political upheaval in Kyrgyzstan, are being engineered by the United States. Authorities in Tehran are confident that the Islamic republic is not vulnerable to a "velvet" revolution. At the same time, experts say, the revolutionary trend may exert influence over the upcoming Iranian presidential election. READ MORE

Iranian officials were guarded in their comments on the March 24 ouster of Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev and his replacement by a provisional government led by erstwhile political allies turned pro-democracy advocates. Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi expressed a desire for Kyrgyzstan’s political climate to "return to normal as soon as possible," the official IRNA news agency reported.

Kyrgyz politics, almost two weeks since Akayev’s ouster, remains in disarray. Political infighting has erupted over the provisional government’s controversial political appointments. The provisional government scheduled its first formal cabinet meeting for April 7. Meanwhile, the country’s parliament has been unable to take up the issue of Akayev’s resignation, due to a lack of a quorum.

The political turnover in Kyrgyzstan dealt a blow to Iranian foreign policy. Tehran had cultivated closer ties with Akayev in recent years as part of an effort to frustrate a perceived US geopolitical strategy designed to encircle and isolate Iran. A visit by an Iranian delegation to Kyrgyzstan in late 2004 yielded several cooperation agreements covering trade and the export of electricity. In late 2003, Iran extended $10 million in assistance to Kyrgyzstan to stimulate commerce.

Representatives of the provisional government have stated that Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy course will shift significantly. Yet, experts in Bishkek, say such statements generally refer to relations with Kyrgyzstan’s two major political partners – the United States and Russia. It is likely, these experts add, that the United States will exert political pressure on Bishkek to downgrade its ties with Tehran.

The consensus opinion among Iran’s political elite is that the United States played a central role in the Kyrgyz revolution, as part of a broader strategy to remake the political order in the Muslim world and the former Soviet Union. Accordingly, Iranian politicians and pundits alike maintain that events in Kyrgyzstan are linked to the ongoing political turmoil in Lebanon, as well as the revolutions in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine.

A commentary broadcast by Iranian state television on March 25 said the Kyrgyz revolution and the turmoil in Lebanon exposed "the expansionist and hegemonic policies of America."

The US government, the television commentary claimed, was motivated not by a desire to spread democratic ideals, but by an intent to gain control of natural resources in the Muslim world and former Soviet Union, including oil and gas, as well as uranium and other precious metals. The commentary went on to suggest that US officials were manipulating non-governmental organizations to help stoke popular protests that specifically aimed to topple incumbent governments.

While concerned about revolutionary developments elsewhere, members of Iran’s political elite, including those belonging to hard-line conservative factions, appear confident that the country is not susceptible to the kind of "velvet revolution" scenario that played out in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004. A combination of repression, extensive government patronage and broad-based public apathy with politics -- underscored by low voter turnout in recent elections – has dulled the population’s appetite for mass political action.

In addition, conservative defenders of the Islamic republic, in the event of anti-government protests, could utilize a relatively small, but fervently supportive segment of the population to act as a counter-weight to those potentially pushing for change. Among the assets at the disposal of Iranian conservatives are armed units belonging to the Basij militia and the Republican Guards. A vast state security network is also in place, and is capable of early detection of efforts to mobilize the population for mass protests.

Iran’s conservative leaders, who dominate both the country’s elective political institutions and its religious oversight bodies, are especially concerned these days with containing the Internet’s power to spread information. During the run-up to the country’s June 17 presidential election, a source of fierce behind-the-scenes political infighting, Iran’s judiciary has cracked down on purveyors of information. Late in 2004, for example, authorities arrested web "bloggers" in an effort to discourage the circulation of independent political opinion and analysis.

In addition, the website ITIran has reported that the official blog of Mostafa Moeen, presidential candidate for the main reform party Iran Participation Front, has been censored by ParsOnline. A conservative ISP based in Tehran, ParsOnline’s screening practices go beyond the official governmental blacklist.

Political analysts in Tehran say recent developments in Kyrgyzstan and Lebanon could boost the presidential aspirations of Ali-Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the current chairman of Iran’s Expediency Council and a conservative-leaning pragmatist who served as chief executive from 1989-97.

Though widely expected to enter the presidential race, Rafsanjani has not yet formally done so. In serving in a variety of political positions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Rafsanjani’s political pragmatism has earned him a number of influential political enemies. As one of Iran’s most astute political operators, Rafsanjani has remained coy about his political plans in an effort to defeat hard-liner attempts to derail his likely candidacy. Many hardliners view a potential Rafsanjani presidency as an impediment to the implementation of a radical-conservative political agenda currently espoused by the Iranian parliament.

Rafsanjani has stated repeatedly that he will run only if there exists broad support for his candidacy, and he is called upon by the public to guide the nation out of a crisis situation. In recent public statements, Rafsanjani has sought to portray recent events in Kyrgyzstan and Lebanon as being part of just such a looming geopolitical crisis for Iran.

In comments broadcast on Iranian radio March 25, Rafsanjani said "you can see what they [US officials] have done in Kyrgyzstan," going on to allege that the United States was also meddling in Lebanon and Iraq. "We are faced with a creeping move designed by America aimed at dominating other countries and plundering their natural resources," Rafsanjani added. "We hope to repel America’s evil intentions by relying on God and the [spirit of the Iranian] revolution."

Outside of the political limelight, Rafsanjani is also working vigorously to assemble a broad-based political coalition in support of his presidential candidacy. He has reached out to representatives of practically every political faction, except the neo-conservative Abadgaran group, offering promises of political posts within his potential administration. The opaque nature of Iranian politics makes it difficult to assess whether Rafsanjani’s outreach initiative has been successful or not, analysts in Tehran say.

Editor’s Note: Ardeshir Moaveni is a freelance journalist specializing in Iranian politics.

Iranian New Year Starts as Badly as Ever for the Press

Reporters Without Borders:

Reporters Without Borders today deplored a series of new negative developments for press freedom that accompanied the arrival of the Iranian New Year in March. READ MORE

On returning from their New Year vacation, 80 conservative parliamentarians called for reformist journalist Massih Alinejad to be banned from entering parliament. The president of the Association of Iranian journalists, Ali Mazroi, was banned from leaving the country. And officials closed two magazines.

"Iranian journalists are no longer allowed to express themselves outside the country any more than inside," the press freedom organization said. "The conservatives, who dominate the country's religious, political and judicial institutions, are doing everything possible to silence dissent. We call on the parliamentary speaker to restore Alinejad's rights since he has committed no crime."

Condemning the closure of the magazines Jameh Nou and Karnameh, Reporters Without Borders called on the Ministry of Islamic Guidance to allow them to resume publishing. The organization also stressed that the Iranian authorities should not prevent a journalist from travelling abroad or participating in international conferences. Mazroi should be able to go abroad without being harassed, the organization said, calling for the immediate return of his passport.

It was the publication of their pay slips that prompted the parliamentarians to turn on Alinejad. A parliamentary reporter for the reformist daily Hambasteghi and the news agency ILNA, he was banned from parliament on 4 April. For much of the past year, he had been the target of a smear campaign by parliamentarians who criticized his dress as well as "his rudeness and impoliteness."

Conservative members of parliament accused him of stealing their pay slips from their mail pigeonholes although, in fact, it was a reformist MP who showed Alinejad his pay slip. Since the ban, Alinejad has won the support of several newspapers, which have announced that they will not report any parliamentary news for a day in protest. The Iranian lawyer and Nobel peace laureate Shirin Ebadi has said she will defend Alinejad although no legal initiative has yet been taken.

Mazroi was deprived of his passport and prevented from leaving the country on 6 April as he was about to fly to Denmark to attend a meeting of the International Federation of Journalists. The airport police did not explain their action. Last year, Mazroi wrote several open letters condemning the arrest of his son, Hanif Mazroi, who has since been released.

The monthly Karnameh was closed by the Ministry of Islamic Guidance on 7 April for publishing news and poems deemed "immoral." The ministry said it intended to prosecute the magazine.

Jameh Nou, a magazine targeted at intellectuals, was banned by the Ministry of Islamic Guidance a few days before the Iranian New Year, on 8 March. The grounds given by the Press Control Commission for the ban was the fact that the magazine was not coming out regularly. Jameh Nou has called for political and religious reforms. Its editor, Ftameh Kamli Sara, is the wife of independent journalist Emadoldin Baghi, who spent several years in prison, above all for articles advocating free expression and a modern vision of Iran.

'Iran Liberty Walk' Calls for Regime Change

WorldNetDaily.com:

"Atomic Iran" author Jerome Corsi will lead a 128-mile walk from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., to help promote peaceful, democratic change in Iran and call on Iranians to protest their June 17 "sham" election. READ MORE

Corsi, founder of the Iran Freedom Foundation, or IFF, plans to begin "The Iran Liberty Walk" May 16 at the Liberty Bell.

Reports from the event will be broadcast to Iran via radio, television and the Internet, including live interviews with participants.

"I am 58 years-old and yet determined to walk the distance," he said. "I invite all who share our purpose to join me for as much of the walk as you can."

The IFF estimates about 40 million Iranians will follow coverage of the walk, expected to take two weeks.

Along with sending a signal for peaceful change, the IFF is calling for civil disobedience from Iranian citizens.

Corsi and the IFF urge Iranians to flood the streets June 17, the date of the presidential vote, and vote "no" in the "sham elections the mullahs are planning."

The event will be filmed by Timothy Watkins, producer of the documentary film "In the Face of Evil," which recounts the courage of Ronald Reagan and Pope John Paul II and their resolve to stand up to communism.

Corsi says the IFF is resolved to do the same with the mullahs in Iran.

"Please visit our website and plan to follow us in our march for freedom in Iran, a destiny we know will soon come to the Iranian people," Corsi said. "The tide of freedom sweeping across the Middle East will not be stopped, even if the mullahs spend billions in public relations to fool the world about their evil intentions."

US Lawmaker Concerned By Lack Of Spies In Iran

Dow Jones Newswires, AP:

Sen. Saxby Chambliss said Thursday that the United States lacks human spies in North Korea and Iran , providing more detail than last week's presidential commission did about U.S. intelligence capabilities inside the two countries. READ MORE

Aides to the Georgia Republican, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, insisted he was basing his comments on media reports and wasn't divulging classified information.

In a speech, Chambliss cited the information as enough to justify the work of a presidential commission that issued a scathing report last week of U.S. spy agencies. The unclassified sections of that report did not discuss whether the United States has spies in the two nations. The study included classified sections on Iran and North Korea.

During remarks to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Chambliss listed "familiar themes" that have emerged since the release last week of a report on weapons of mass destruction.

Among the themes, Chambliss said, is that the United States lacks "human intelligence" -or spies -in North Korea and Iran 's top political leadership or nuclear weapons programs. He went on to defend the commission that wrote the report, touting this one finding alone as enough to justify its existence.

"A lot of people will question why we had this commission," Chambliss said. "Why do you need one more body looking at this issue? Well, this is such a complex issue. It is such an important issue that I don't think you can get too many people looking at it."

Chambliss aides said the senator hadn't yet reviewed the classified parts of the report and was citing articles from the New York Times and The Philadelphia Inquirer as his sources. He wasn't confirming the reports and would not have had enough information to deny them, they said.

The Inquirer article reported that a lack of spies in Iran and North Korea has forced the United States to rely on satellite photos, communications intercepts and foreign intelligence. The Times story said the commission's report was expected to repeat criticisms about "the absence of effective human intelligence sources" inside North Korea and Iran .

Government officials declined to comment because of the sensitive nature of the information.

"It's an area I'm not at liberty to discuss," said Larry McQuillan, spokesman for the nine-member presidential commission that investigated U.S. intelligence for over a year.

Said a CIA spokesman, "We do not comment on the placement or access of clandestine sources."

On the Net: Sen. Saxby Chambliss: http://www.chambliss.senate.gov/

Eye of the Storm: Suppose we Knew Iraq Had no WMDs

Amir Taheri, The Jerusalem Post:

In a rare show of unity the American establishment has put its partisan tradition aside to praise the presidential commission that has just described prewar intelligence on Iraq as "dead wrong." While we should have no illusions about the efficiency of America's costly, bloated and poorly led intelligence services, it is important not to draw wrong conclusions from the commission's report. READ MORE

To start with the intelligence services are instruments in the hands of the political leadership. Direction as to what to look for must come from the political leadership. What is presented as a failure of intelligence, therefore, may well be a political failure.

It was the political leadership that failed to understand that, with the Cold War over, the US needed to refocus its intelligence services toward new sources of threat. That did not happen. Even today Russian speakers in the so-called intelligence community reportedly outnumber Arabic speakers 20 to one.

In the specific case of Iraq, successive administrations failed to appreciate the dangerous direction that country had taken under its Ba'athist rulers, especially from 1979 onwards. From 1958 until the late 1980s the US did not even have an embassy in Baghdad.

Another glaring example of political failure concerns Iran.

Over the past quarter of a century successive US administrations have identified the Islamic republic as a growing threat to American national interests. And yet there has never been any serious attempt at developing a coherent Iran policy that would, in turn, spell out specific intelligence needs.

The issue of Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions was first raised during the Ford administration in 1977. A year later, the Carter administration gave Iran virtually unlimited access to American nuclear technology. The issue was again highlighted by president Bill Clinton's secretary of state Warren Christopher in 1992. And yet the presidential commission asserts that even today Washington knows very little of substance about the subject.

The greatest danger in misreading the commission's report, however, lies elsewhere. Without saying so openly the commissioners appear to imply that the war to liberate Iraq was somehow caused by faulty intelligence.

But is this true? The decision to remove Saddam Hussein from power was a political one that enjoyed almost unanimous support in Washington from the mid-1990s onwards. The Iraq Liberation Act, signed by Clinton, committed America to the liberation of Iraq not because of weapons of mass destruction but with reference to Saddam Hussein's violation of human rights and his decade-long defiance of the United Nations. The conflict between Saddam and the UN was about a wide range of issues of which the WMDs was only one. That no appreciable stocks of WMDs have been found in Iraq so far does not render the other reasons for toppling Saddam Hussein inoperative.

The commission's report might cause confusion as to the relationship between intelligence on the one hand and political decision-making on the other by implying the primacy of the former.

That could encourage the concept of a government of spooks, as was the case in the former Soviet Union, and is still the case in some Arab states run by their mukhaberat or secret services.

In a democracy, however, a firewall must separate intelligence gathering and analysis from political debate and decision-making. There may be times when even good quality intelligence would have to be discarded in favor of a political judgment regarding a specific issue.

In the late 1930s British intelligence consistently, and often accurately, reported on Hitler's massive arms build-up with the erroneous conclusion that it was primarily aimed against the USSR. Even the German-Soviet pact did not shake that firm belief. Thus the availability of good quality intelligence did not prevent the making of poor political decisions. The appeasers knew exactly what Hitler was up to but lacked the vision to put it in proper context.

In the specific case of Iraq, Saddam Hussein was determined to keep people guessing about his WMD program. By making life difficult for UN inspectors, and insisting that some sites remain off-limits, he encouraged suspicions about his intentions. The fact that his entire rule was based on secrecy and double-dealing made the claim that he maintained a clandestine weapons program plausible. That impression was entertained and reinforced by Iraqi exiles who had an interest in vilifying the Ba'athist regime.

Now, let us imagine that the so-called intelligence community had reported in 2003 that Iraq was genuinely free of WMDs. That would not have changed the nature of the Ba'athist regime and Saddam's destabilizing strategy in the Middle East. Nor would the regime have ceased to be an almost daily calamity for the people of Iraq. With a narrow focus on WMDs the UN may have felt obliged to lift the sanctions on Iraq, thus liberating Saddam from the constraints that had forced him to rein in his deadly ambitions. Within a few years Iraq would have re-emerged as an even bigger threat and one far more difficult to contain, let alone eliminate.

A narrow view of intelligence as a snapshot of reality at any given time could prove counterproductive. Such a snapshot could show Saddam Hussein without any WMDs at a particular time, ignoring the fact that he had had them at some other points and may well have obtained them again if given the opportunity. The real WMD in Iraq was the Ba'athist regime and its machinery of oppression and war, which was found and dismantled.

It's a Make-Or-Break Year for Iraq

David Rudge, The Jerusalem Post:

The next 12 months will be crucial for democratic forces in Iraq as well as for the US and its hopes of bringing about stability and reducing insurgency, according to leading Iraqi affairs expert Prof. Amatzia Baram.

Baram put the prospects of success at just over 50 percent, although he stressed that the appointment of a new president, Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, and two vice presidents, leading Sunni Ghazi al-Yawer and Sh'ite Adel Abdul al-Mahdi, marked a tremendous step forward.

"It is a momentous moment for the Iraqis. This is the first time in some 85 years that the national cake is being divided more equally among the various ethnic groups instead of being concentrated in the hands of the Sunnis who held power since the beginning of the 1920's," Baram told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. READ MORE

He spoke prior to the inauguration of the University of Haifa's new Center for Gulf Studies, of which he is director. The official opening was marked by an evening seminar by leading experts on issues relating to the Persian Gulf.

Baram, a senior lecturer in the university's Department of Middle East History, said the success of Iraq's democratic adventure would depend to a great extent on curbing insurgency, developing the economy and infrastructure and wise political power-sharing.

In this respect, he said the US-led multi-national forces and the interim Iraqi government had shown a great deal of patience and understanding during the past 12 months and had been moving in the right direction.

"The Americans made many mistakes at the outset but since May of last year I have not identified any errors of judgement on the part of the US and Iraqi decision-makers. On the contrary, the mistakes recently have been made by the insurgents whose actions have been turning the Iraqi people against them," said Baram.

He maintained that there were primarily two kinds of insurgents: the Islamist Sunni diehards, including those imported from outside together with Ba'athists who had nothing to lose, and Sunni tribesmen.

Some of the latter were being funded by ex-senior members of the former regime of Saddam Hussein who had sought and been given refuge in Syria and were operating from Damascus and other places with the covert blessing of President Bashar Assad and his regime.

"These ex-Ba'ath party Iraqis are sending a lot of money to encourage insurgency. I estimate that 20-30 per cent of attacks are carried out by criminals and tribesmen in return for being paid for their work," said Baram.

"Syria could stop this if it so desired but it is turning a blind eye to these activities not least because Bashar has to placate his own Sunnis who compose the majority of the Syrian population."

Iran now appeared to be concentrating its activities on building up support among Iraq's majority Shi'ite community especially in the South and in population areas near the Iraq-Iran border, he said.

"Basra, for instance, is now controlled by fundamentalist Shi'ite militias whose members are heavily influenced by Iran. In terms of Islamic customs and institutions, Basra is far more fundamentalist now than Teheran. This does not bode well given the fact that southern Iraq is one of the richest oil-producing areas anywhere in the world," said Baram.

He maintained that the decision-makers in Iraq had to focus on fighting insurgency through military means while trying to hold the country together by creating more jobs and generally improving the standard of living for average citizens and their families.

"The new government and the Americans have about a year to build a credible military force composed of Kurds, Shi'ites and those Sunnis willing to serve, especially those who previously held command positions," he said.

"If, by then, they have about 150,000 reasonably well-trained men in the army, the police force, the security apparatus and have developed a rapid intervention force, the Americans will be able to withdraw from heavily populated areas," Baram said. The reduced presence and visibility of US troops would help lower tension, while the local Iraqi forces that replaced them would still be able to rely on the help of American advisers, logistics support and "over the horizon" aerial assistance if required.

"The economic sphere is equally if not more important," he added. "It is essential to create jobs via hundreds of projects all over the country so that the insurgents will not be able to sabotage them and also boost electricty supplies, improve water, sewage and drainage systems and build new homes. At the moment there is a need for some 2.5 million new family homes," he said.

"The third issue is the political sphere and whether, given Iraq's historical background, Shi'ite and Kurds will be sufficiently generous and wise in offering reasonable power sharing to the Sunnis despite all the antagonism built up over the years."

Baram maintained that if all three issues were tackled in a very determined manner in the coming year, there would be a "fighting chance" of keeping Iraq in one piece, making sure that the democratic process takes a hold, and for a gradual economic and political recovery.

"This year and early 2006 marks a window of opportunity for the democratic forces in Iraq and the US-led multi-national forces to stabilize the system and reduce insurgency. The alternative would be civil war resulting in the break-up of Iraq, which would be terrible for the Iraqi people and the region because of the instability it would cause," Baram added.

Hizbollah Hints At Disarmament Compromise

Roula Khalaf, The Financial Times:

Lebanon's Hizbollah is signalling a willingness to discuss the fate of its military wing as the Shia Islamist group adopts a more assertive role in Lebanese politics and positions itself for the aftermath of Syria's withdrawal from the country. READ MORE

In an interview the Financial Times, Sheikh Naim Qassim, deputy head of the party, said Hizbollah would be ready for talks with other Lebanese groups on the future of its fighters, but after the dispute over Shebaa Farms, a small strip of land near the Lebanese-Israeli border, was settled.

Although it includes stiff conditions, Mr Qassim's statement is the first sign of a possible future compromise over the Lebanese organisation's fighting arm as it faces the loss of Syria's protective umbrella in Lebanon.

Mr Qassim confirmed that one potential alternative would be for Hizbollah fighters to become a kind of “reservist army”, co-ordinating activities with the Lebanese authorities.

Hizbollah is listed as a terrorist organisation in the US, which has long demanded the movement's disarmament. But it is considered in Lebanon, and the rest of the Arab world, as a resistance movement that successfully fought Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, driving Israeli troops out in May 2000.

It is also a well-organised political party, with representation in the Lebanese parliament.

The disarmament of Hizbollah became the subject of heated debate in Lebanon in the aftermath of the February 14 assassination of Rafiq Hariri, the former prime minister. The killing set off a wave of anti-Syrian protests and intensified international calls for a withdrawal of Syrian troops and secret services.

Terje Roed Larsen, the United Nations envoy, last Sunday secured a Syrian pledge to complete the military departure from Lebanon by the end of this month, in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1559. The UN decision includes a provision demanding the dismantling of remaining militias in Lebanon, a reference to Hizbollah's military wing.

The sticking point is likely to be Shebaa Farms, occupied by Israel but claimed by Lebanon. “We will discuss [Hizbollah's] arms after Shebaa but on condition that a credible alternative is found to protect Lebanon. A reservist army doesn't mean the resistance becomes part of the army but it's a formula of co-ordination with the army. It's resistance by another name.”

When Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000 the pro-Syrian Lebanese authorities insisted that Shebaa Farms remained occupied, although the UN considers the land to be part of Syria. Lebanon and Syria continue to insist it is Lebanese, a position that justified continued Hizbollah operations against Israeli troops in the border area.

Mr Qassim was adamant that Shebaa Farms was Lebanese land and he said the controversy should be ended through an Israeli withdrawal. But he also acknowledged that Hizbollah would have to abide by the position of the Lebanese government.

He insisted that despite the withdrawal of Syrian troops and the weakening of Damascus' political protection, Hizbollah would still be able to acquire weapons and equipment. “When Hizbollah needs military means it knows how to get them. The markets are filled and there are many ways. So we don't have a problem there. Israelis know our capabilities are a lot better since 2000.”

Mr Qassim admitted that the weakening of Syrian influence in Lebanon had also reduced the support to his group from a strategic backer. But he said Hizbollah's strategy was to compensate for the loss of Syrian support by expanding the party's political role in Lebanon.

“Hizbollah has to do more to make up for this political loss and this is what we're doing with our political activities in the last two months.” He said it was “possible” that Hizbollah would one day join the government a move that it has avoided until now.

“But we haven't decided yet. Being in the government is tied to the type of government and to its programme and to our ability to influence it.” Last month Hizbollah staged a massive street demonstration in central Beirut to counter the protests of the opposition and strengthened its alliance with the “loyalists”, the pro-Syrian parties.

At the same time, however, it initiated a dialogue with the anti-Syrian opposition. Hizbollah leaders now have almost daily meetings with opposition figures.

The opposition has been divided over whether Hizbollah should be disarmed. But in recent days some prominent opposition leaders have issued statements to reassure the party that the fate of its military wing will be decided in an internal dialogue and without international interference.

“The other elements of 1559 are domestic Lebanese issues and the Lebanese voice is now almost in consensus that Hizbollah's arms would be discussed between the Lebanese without going back to the UN resolution,” said Mr Qassim. “So we don't consider that we're confronting the international community because we're applying an understanding between the Lebanese.”

The US recently hinted that if Hizbollah were to become purely a political party its status as a terrorist organisation could also change. Although this signalled a policy shift, Mr Qassim said he was not impressed.

“The US thought it would entice the party with political recognition in return for [Hizbollah] giving up the resistance. So it wants to take with politics what Israel could not take with arms,” he said.

“But they don't understand the problem it's occupation and Israeli expansionist ambitions and they're not treating the problem. They want to break the ability of any group to confront Israel and this is something we reject.”

The Security Council was expected to approve on Thursday a resolution authorising an inquiry into Hariri's killing, diplomats said, Reuters reports from New York.

The 15-nation council could adopt the measure unanimously after its drafters, the US and France, fine-tuned its language to reassure Beirut that investigators would not impinge on its sovereignty.

A UN fact-finding mission recommended the independent inquiry after concluding that Lebanon's probe into Hariri's assassination in a Beirut bomb attack on February 14 suffered from “serious flaws” that would prevent it from reaching a credible conclusion.