Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [6/11/06 - 6/17/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.

• The Telegraph reported that fresh evidence has emerged that Iran is working on a secret military project codenamed Zirzamin 27 to develop nuclear weapons that has not been declared to United Nations inspectors responsible for monitoring Iran’s nuclear program.
  
• Bloomberg reported that Iran said traces of highly enriched uranium found by United Nations inspectors in Tehran came from abroad and aren't evidence of domestic production.
• WorldNetDaily.com reported that pressure is building on Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf to allow access to nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan to discover what he knows about fresh traces of enriched uranium found on equipment used at an Iranian military site.
• The New York Times reported that Iran's Foreign Ministry rejected some proposals from the Perm-5 trying to persuade it to stop its atomic fuel work and said Tehran will offer its own amendments.
• The New York Times reported that the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency faulted Tehran today for failing to provide information.
• Yahoo News reported that the United States and Europe are lobbying other nations to join them this week in urging Iran to start talks on its uranium enrichment program.
• The Times of India reported that the United States has pursued another diplomatic track by building a 'coalition of the willing' to isolate Iran.
• The New York Sun reported that a series of unanswered questions on Iran's program to enrich uranium for bombs and power will be raised Monday as the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna.
• The Los Angeles Times reported the unease conservative community has to Condoleezza Rice's offer to Iran.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, News Max reported that new evidence is emerging that Iran has built a secret plant, located some 20 kilometers to the northeast of Tehran near the Lashgarak dam, which houses a clandestine centrifuge uranium enrichment plant, where Iran is making nuclear weapons material.
• Yahoo News reported that China and Russia have again refused to join with other big powers in threatening sanctions over Iran's nuclear program.
• The Pew Research Center released the result of their poll that indicates that most Americans believe that Iran wants to possess nuclear technology in order to develop nuclear weapons, not energy. But there is broad public opposition to launching U.S. air strikes against military targets in Iran, with multilateral sanctions by far the preferred option.
• The Washington Post reported on a statement drawn up by the 16-nation nonaligned bloc at the board meeting of the IAEA "reaffirmed the basic and inalienable right" of all countries to develop, produce and use atomic energy "for peaceful purposes, without any discrimination and in conformity with their respective legal obligations."
• Yahoo News reported that the U.S. Treasury Department named one U.S. and four Chinese companies as supporters of Iran's military and Iranian weapons programs.
• IranMania reported that Iran insisted it has not been given a deadline to reply to an international proposal aimed at ending a crisis over the Islamic republic's nuclear program.
• Bloomberg reported that the U.S. has again rejected an offer from Iran to limit the scale of its uranium enrichment. U.S. Ambassador Greg Schulte added: "Iran has a clear choice, a positive path that brings real benefits and long-term security to the Iranian people."
• Rooz Online reported on the coming "compromise" or "big battle" between the US and the Iranian regime. A must read.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran's defense minister vowed his country would "use nuclear defense as a potential" if "threatened by any power."
• The New York Times reported that when a formal incentives package by six nations to encourage Iran to curb its nuclear program was presented in writing in Tehran last week, they delivered the news about the sticks — only orally.
• Houston Chronicle reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Iran is ready to enter into negotiations on an offer by the U.N. powers to encourage Tehran to relinquish its nuclear fuel enrichment program.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to resist Western pressure over his country's disputed nuclear program saying: "The Islamic Republic of Iran will not succumb to these pressures and it considers the continuation (of its nuclear program) a main objective."
• The Washington Post reported that while the United States and Europe urged Iran to lift the veil of secrecy surrounding its nuclear activities and freeze uranium enrichment, Iran warned the West against undue pressure, saying "the carrot and stick has always been counterproductive."
• Yahoo News reported that while US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Iran had made "positive statements" about Western proposals to resolve a row over its nuclear program, but she also added "we need an answer" from Tehran.
• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's foreign minister Lavrov said he expects an answer from Iran on starting talks to resolve the crisis around its nuclear program in the near future.
• Asia Times argued that the Western crisis with Iran is put part of a larger struggle taking place: a tripolar contest among the United States, Russia and China for domination of the greater Persian Gulf.
• The Washington Post reported that Iran's foreign minister said the government likely would suggest amendments to a Western package of incentives.
• RIA Novosti reported that Tehran will give an "absolutely transparent" answer to the Iran Six's package of proposals.
  

A roundup of reports on the women's demonstration in Tehran 6/13. Photos.

• Iran Press News provided a detailed report on the Islamic Regime's attack and assault attendants of the peaceful Women's March. Among those present at the march were academics, well-known human and women's rights activists, student leaders, and members of the greater Tehran bus drivers union. Photos.
• Radio Free Europe reported on the Women's March and eyewitnesses claimed there were maybe as many security forces as protesters.
• SMCCDI reported that Islamist female agents named by most Iranians as "Black Crows" (due to their black veils), used of clubs, chains and Tear-Gas spray against helpless and women who were shouting slogans against the regime.
• BBC News reported that the viciousness of the police attack on the protestors caused men who were passing by in the street to protest. "These are our sisters, how can you do this?"
• Rooz Online reported that as Iranian women activists continued their preparations for their June 12th rally to call for ending gender discrimination, over 10 women activists have been summoned by Iranian judiciary and security officials.
• Kosoof.com published more photos of today's protest.
• SOSIRAN.com published their letter to Amnesty International more asking them to condemn the recent atrocities against women in Iran.
• Amnesty International condemned the Iranian security forces' violent disruption of a peaceful demonstration on 12 June by women and men advocating an end to legal discrimination against women in Iran.
• Reporters Without Borders confirmed earlier reports that the demonstration in Tehran attracted more than 5,000 women.
  

Iran at the World Cup: Cheers, Tears and Protests.

• The Star reported that German Jews and politicians protested Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's denial of the Nazi Holocaust Sunday while his country kicked off its World Cup campaign.
• News Press reported that World Cup soccer is speaking to Iranians everywhere - even those who despise the country's leaders adore the team.
• Publis Pundit reported that despite the presence of the regime’s vice-president at the stadium, tens of Iranian fans cheered their team but also staged a significant anti-regime protest. Photos of the game and demonstrations.
• FifaWorldCup.Sporati provided live blogging of the Mexico vs Iran World Cup match. Mexico won 3 to 1.
• Forbes reported that more than 1,000 people gathered peacefully Saturday to protest the Iranian president's denial of the Holocaust as Iran played its second match at the World Cup.
  

Iran at the SCO.

• Reuters reported that China said that this week's summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO), a Central Asian security group, will highlight the organization's rising stature, but Iran threatens to highlight its limits.
• Peter Brookes, The New York Post reported that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reeks of trouble for Uncle Sam.
• The Financial Times reported that a central Asian summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation which will discuss security issues is likely to be overshadowed by the presence of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit is demonstrating aggressive anti-American bent and growing political clout.
• Reuters reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered energy cooperation to members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
• The Financial Times reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad called on China, Russia, and central Asian nations to resist intrusions in the region by the “domineering” US.
  

The Unrest in Iran.

• SMCCDI reported on the unrest, sporadic clashes and attack of some public buildings and materials in several Iranian cities, yesterday night, following Iran's 3-1 loss to Mexico in the frame of the 2006 Soccer World Cup.
• BBC News reported that Iranian news websites and women bloggers have been full of angry comments about the way that policewomen took part in breaking up a women's demonstration for more legal rights in Tehran.
  

Iran's leaders latest statements.

• The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran's defense minister vowed his country would "use nuclear defense as a potential" if "threatened by any power."
• Yahoo News reported that Iran's president said that the six-nation incentive package aimed at getting his country to halt uranium enrichment was a "step forward" but also repeated assertions that the Nazi Holocaust was unproven, saying it should be independently investigated.
• Khaleej Times Online reported British Prime Minister Tony Blair sees no need for an inquiry into the Holocaust.
  

Iranian leaderships unity weakening?

• Rooz Online reported that while ultra-conservative cleric ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has refrained from distancing himself from his associates who last week physically and violently disrupted ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani’s public talk in the city of Qom, this radical cleric may end up denounced by the regime and eventually pushed into forced exile.
• Iran Press Service reported that over the past year there is a slow Palace Coup taking in the making of the Iranian government.
• Rooz Online claims that a number of reformist parties have asked veteran Iranian politician Hashemi Rafsanjani to run in the upcoming Experts Assembly for Leadership election.
  

More troublemaking by the Iranian regime.

• The New York Post reported that New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly warned that Iran has an "aggressive" spy program targeting New York City, "they are not going to other cities to do it. They are doing it here in New York. They are aggressively surveilling us."
  

Human Rights and Freedom of the Press in Iran.

• Rooz Online reported that an Iranian judge has decided to reopen the 9-year-old mysterious murder case of a flight attendant which was initially closed because of the interference and lobbying of top intelligence officials.
• Reuters reported that Iran's judiciary freed two journalists on bail after they were arrested for insulting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Fars News Agency reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said his ministry is about to release a detailed report on the cases of human rights violation in the United States and Europe.
• Macleans published a detailed report on Ramin Jahanbegloo is a noted scholar and a Canadian citizen who has recently been imprisoned in Iran. An excellent report.
• Rooz Online reported on the new tactics the regime employed in putting down the recent women's rights demonstration in Tehran.
• Iran Focus reported a man has been hanged in a prison in the south-eastern province of Sistan-va-Baluchistan, in what many Baluchis believe is a response to a spate of attacks by dissidents on government and security officials.
• Iran Focus reported that Iran’s State Security Forces have carried out nearly 80,000 “on the spot” interrogations over the past two months in the streets of Tehran alone.
• Akhbaremovasagh.blogfa.com reported that last month, elements of the intelligence services of Iranian regime abducted the seventeen year-old Shima, the daughter of Koorosh Ahmadi, a political activist in Iran.
• Rooz Online reported that in their first press conference, the new student members of the Islamic Association of Amir Kabir University warned that they will not allow universities to be turned into prisons or military camps.
  

The Iranian Economy.

• Yahoo News reported that a group of 50 prominent Iranian economists have written an open letter to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, criticizing his government policies for promoting skyrocketing inflation.
  

Support for Internal Regime Change in Iran?

• Time Magazine (Europe) published 10 Questions for Reza Pahlavi.
• Memri.org reported that Ayatollah Khomeini's Grandson said: 'freedom must come to Iran in any possible way, whether through internal or external developments. If you were a prisoner, what would you do? I want someone to break the prison [doors open]...'"
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that two scions of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran are emerging as emboldened opponents of the regime in Tehran, reviving the prospect that the son of the former shah may collaborate with the grandson of the ayatollah who deposed him.
• The Telegraph reported that the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, the inspiration of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, has broken a three-year silence to back the United States military to overthrow the country's clerical regime.
  

US/Iran talks?

• IranMania reported that Iran is no longer interested in direct talks with the United States over the situation in Iraq.
  

Iran and the International community.

• Newsweek reported that Mideastern leaders are afraid that Tehran has sophisticated designs for the area from the gulf to the Mediterranean starting with the fear of an Iranian annexation of Iraq. Washington cannot afford to ignore this Iranophobia.
• Arab News reported that Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for “strategic cooperation” with Saudi Arabia after a meeting with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal.
• Yahoo News reported that the defense ministers from close allies Iran and Syria have signed an agreement for military cooperation against what they called the "common threats" presented by Israel and the United States.
• Middle East Newsline reported that Iran has offered numerous weapons, such as Iranian missiles, air defense systems and main battle tanks, as well as the establishment of defense production facilities in Syria.
• Adnkronos International reported that the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have agreed to link all GCC ports to guarantee the smooth flow of goods should the nuclear stand off between neighbouring Iran and the West escalate.
  

Zarqawi Dead! Was Iran the source?

• GIS sources have claimed that the intelligence which led to the exact targeting of Zarqawi had been provided to Coalition Forces by one of the jihadist commander’s chief sponsors: Iran. Alan Peters provided more details.
  

The battle in the US Senate on Iran.

• The Washington Post reported that Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid said that he plans to introduce legislation next week that would require a new national intelligence estimate for Iran.
• DoctorZin reported that the Iran Freedom Support Act was to be voted on in the Senate Thursday.
• Eli Lake, The NY Sun reported that faced with legislation that would force America to take a harder line on Iran, Secretary of State Rice worked closely yesterday with a key Senate Democrat to kill the Iran Freedom and Support Act.
  

Must Read reports.

• Iran Focus reported that several key agents of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security operating in countries bordering Iran have gone on the run from their terror masters in Tehran.
• The New York Post reported that New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly warned that Iran has an "aggressive" spy program targeting New York City, "they are not going to other cities to do it. They are doing it here in New York. They are aggressively surveilling us."
• The Christian Science Monitor reported that Hamas or Hezbollah are now in the awkward position of having to decide whether to bend to popular opinion and end their drive to eliminate Israel.
• Kathryn Jean Lopez, National Review Online discussed the US offer of direct talks with Iran and the confusion it is causing among the Iranian opposition movement who fear President Bush may be selling them out for a nuclear deal.
  

The Experts.

• Kenneth R. Timmerman, News Max reported that new evidence is emerging that Iran has built a secret plant, located some 20 kilometers to the northeast of Tehran near the Lashgarak dam, which houses a clandestine centrifuge uranium enrichment plant, where Iran is making nuclear weapons material.
• Michael Ledeen, National Review Online reported that the mullahs have had a lot of bad news in recent days — news with a particularly sinister aura, in fact. So sinister that they must be asking themselves what they have done to incur the Divine wrath.
• Michael Rubin, The Weekly Standard reported on "the Bush policy on Iran" and points our the many parallels with Clinton's failed approach to North Korea.
• Amir Taheri, The New York Post reported on the new power struggle inside of Iran and how Ahmadinejad's faction is pushing for Armageddon.
• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online suggested we should be careful not to be deceived by the recent Al Qaeda document found in Iraq.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat published a book review of - Islamic Imperialism: A History. He reports it is a must read.
• Amir Taheri, Arab News explains why the US is unlikely to getting help on Iran at next month's G8 Summit in Russia.

DoctorZin Reports.

• DoctorZin reported that he needed to ban some supporters of the regime from posting comments on our reports after they crossed the red-line.
• DoctorZin appeared on the John Batchelor Show last night.
• DoctorZin reported that he joined a group of fellow bloggers in a tele-conference with former Soviet dissident Natan Sharansky, the inspiration behind the Bush Doctrine, where he spoke of the need to support the Iranian opposition.
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• Iran Press News published photos of the people of Ghazvin protesting Ahmadinejad's visit to their town, with translations.
• Iran Press News photos of the Islamic Regime's attack and assault attendants of the peaceful Women's March.
• Kosoof.com published more photos of today's protest.
• Yahoo News reported that about 500 followers of a Shiite cleric attacked the Iranian consulate in the southern Iraqi city of Basra on Wednesday, throwing stones and setting fire to a building in the diplomatic complex. Photos.
• Photo of an interesting Iranian protest in Paris.
• Video compares the Shah of Iran to Islamist rule.
  

The Quote of the Week.

Michael Davies reminded us of a fascinating quote by Ayatollah Khomeini regarding when to expect the fall of the Iranian regime. Ahmadinejad should be concerned by his words.

"And, when the great Musleh (Reformer) appears do not think that a miracle will take place and the entire world will be put aright in a day! Rather, it is by hard work and sacrifices that the oppressors will be done away with. And if you think, as some misguided laymen do, that for the Mahdi (AS) to appear, the world must be entirely overwhelmed with cruelty and injustice therefore, to have him appear sooner, cruelty should be promoted, then let us all chime our own death knells. (From God we are and unto Him we return.)"

Tags: iran, news, iraq, nuclear, military,

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 6.18.2006:

Bad news for US on Iran at the G8 Summit.

• Amir Taheri, Arab News explains why the US is unlikely to getting help on Iran at next month's G8 Summit in Russia.

Khomeini's Grandson requests US military action in Iran.

• The Telegraph reported that the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, the inspiration of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, has broken a three-year silence to back the United States military to overthrow the country's clerical regime.

Iran prepares to respond to thePerm-5 proposal.

• The Washington Post reported that Iran's foreign minister said the government likely would suggest amendments to a Western package of incentives.
• RIA Novosti reported that Tehran will give an "absolutely transparent" answer to the Iran Six's package of proposals.

Iran offers Syria a host of weapons to stop Israel's "WMD's."

• Middle East Newsline reported that Iran has offered numerous weapons, such as Iranian missiles, air defense systems and main battle tanks, as well as the establishment of defense production facilities in Syria.

The GCC states prepare for an Iran crisis in the Gulf.

• Adnkronos International reported that the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have agreed to link all GCC ports to guarantee the smooth flow of goods should the nuclear stand off between neighbouring Iran and the West escalate.

Another Iran protest in Europe.

• Forbes reported that more than 1,000 people gathered peacefully Saturday to protest the Iranian president's denial of the Holocaust as Iran played its second match at the World Cup.

The Palace Coup in Iran.

• Iran Press Service reported that over the past year there is a slow Palace Coup taking in the making of the Iranian government.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Rooz Online claims that a number of reformist parties have asked veteran Iranian politician Hashemi Rafsanjani to run in the upcoming Experts Assembly for Leadership election.
• Rooz Online reported that in their first press conference, the new student members of the Islamic Association of Amir Kabir University warned that they will not allow universities to be turned into prisons or military camps.
• Video compares the Shah of Iran to Islamist rule.

Tags: iran, news, nuclear

Iran: No G-8 Help for US

Amir Taheri, Arab News:

A month from today, leaders of the eight “most industrialized” nations are scheduled to meet in Strelna, a resort near St. Petersburg, for the annual meeting of what many regard as a “global Politburo.”

In the chair will be President Vladimir Putin, hosting the first summit of its kind on Russian soil. US President George Bush along with presidents and prime ministers from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan will join Putin.

After its initial sessions, the “Politburo” will open itself to the leaders of China, Brazil, India and South Africa in a plenary designed to win broader international support for decisions the eight make. According to sources some Arab leaders, among them Iraq’s new Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, may also be invited.

President Bush will be going to Strelna with a simple aim: Securing G-8 support for the new Iraq and forging a solid coalition to check Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Much of what the Bush administration has done in the past few months with regard to the Middle East has been designed to secure that coveted but ever elusive G-8 unity.

Washington’s latest attempt came at the end of last month when Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the US was adopting the European Union’s policy on Iran — a policy that successive US administrations had rejected for three decades. Rice was, in fact, honest enough to cite as the main reason for her volte-face the administration’s fear that the coalition it believed it had built to deal with Iran was “unravelling.”

In other words, Washington was more interested in keeping that coalition together, albeit based on the lowest common denominator, than putting a stop to Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Suddenly the preservation of an instrument shaped for a particular purpose became more important than the purpose itself.

Without wishing to play Cassandra, my guess is that President Bush will get nothing from the G-8 either on Iran or Iraq. READ MORE

The reasons are simple.

First, with the possible exception of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, none of the G-8 leaders is convinced that the problem with the Islamic republic is the nature of its regime rather than its behavior. This means that the G-8 cannot agree on a diagnostic let alone finding a solution.

As for Iraq, four of the G-8, that is to say Canada, Germany, France and Russia vehemently opposed the war and continue to cold-shoulder new Iraq in the hope that its failure would, in the words of French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, teach the Americans “a salutary lesson.”

In Strelna, the four “anti-war” powers will be further strengthened when the new Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi announces his country’s change of sides over Iraq. The balance will be tipped further in favor of the “anti-war” camp when we take into account China, Brazil and South Africa who had also campaigned against the war and remain hostile toward new Iraq. (India has a more balanced position.)

While there is little reason to doubt Putin’s commitment to democracy in Russia, it would be hard to cast him in the role of an enthusiastic champion of democratization in the world. Nor could one accuse the leaders of China of dreaming about a Middle East reshaped into a cluster of Western-style democracies. The new German leadership under Chancellor Angela Merkel may not be as confused about the Middle East as its predecessor under Gerhard Schroeder. However, it is no mystery that the ruling elite in Berlin regard Bush’s doctrine of democratization as naïve if not actually dangerous. As for France under Jacques Chirac, anyone expecting anything more than the crudest form of realpolitik is likely to be disappointed.

However, the overarching reason why Bush is unlikely to obtain anything in Strelna is that a majority of the G-8 summiteers do not want the United States to set the agenda for the Middle East. Nor do they wish to see the US expand its sphere of influence beyond its traditional allies in the region.

It requires no great imagination to see why Russia, China, France and Germany do not relish the prospect of pro-American regimes throughout the Middle East.

Russia and France are still smarting from their loss in Iraq, estimated by Tareq Aziz, Saddam Hussein’s longest serving sidekick, at billions of dollars “in contracts in oil, irrigation, agriculture, electricity, machinery, cars and trucks.”

Russia, France and Germany are the Islamic republic’s three biggest trading partners, enjoying access to a market worth over $300 billion a year. China, for its part, has signed contracts with Tehran worth $70 billion for oil and gas production. Russia and China have also initialed agreements to build 22 nuclear power stations for the Islamic republic over the next 10 years.

Oil is a major consideration for both Russia and China. Russia seeks close ties with the Islamic republic both as a link to OPEC, needed to keep oil prices high, and as a partner in opposing the growing Anglo-American domination of the energy production market in the Caspian basin.

China, facing a dramatic rise in its oil imports, is desperate to find sources of supply that are not controlled by its rivals, notably the United States. One such source is the Islamic republic that sits atop almost 11 percent of the world’s known reserves.

Both Russia and China are also major exporters of weapons to the Islamic republic. In fact, some armament factories in Russia owe their survival to orders from Tehran. France, for its part, hopes to secure a share of the Iranian market for its own weapons’ industries, not to mention other products such as passenger aircraft. Iran’s first nuclear power station was designed and built by Germany before being destroyed in Iraqi air raids in the 1980s. Germany hopes to regain at least part of its previous position in Iran.

Now why should Russia, China, France, and, to some extent Germany, help Bush achieve another regime change, this time in Iran, when that means the emergence of another pro-American power in the Middle East? Even if there is no regime change in Iran, any substantial modification of the Islamic republic’s behavior in favor of the United States could udndermine the ambitions of Russia, China, France and, even Germany in the Middle East.

With the end of the Cold War, the classical big power game lost its ideological aspect. However, its other aspects remain. Allies and partners in a broader context, the G-8 powers remain rivals and competitors when it comes to classical causes of conflict such as access to natural resources, share of markets, geopolitical security, and general political and cultural influence.

Unlike the United States, Russia, China, France, and, to some extent, Germany do not see the Islamic republic as an existential threat. Their reason is that the Islamic republic does not want to keep them out of Iran or chase them from the Middle East as a whole, something that it has declared as its central goal vis-a-vis the United States. In fact, any success by the Islamic republic in driving the US out of any part of the Middle East could benefit most other the G-8 members who would instantly move to fill the gap left by the Americans.

Hoping that the G-8 will help the United States solve its problem with Iran is an illusion.

Ayatollah's grandson calls for US overthrow of Iran

Philip Sherwell, The Telegraph:

The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, the inspiration of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, has broken a three-year silence to back the United States military to overthrow the country's clerical regime.

Hossein Khomeini's call is all the more startling as he made it from Qom, the spiritual home of Iran's Shia strand of Islam, during an interview to mark the 17th anniversary of the ayatollah's death.

"My grandfather's revolution has devoured its children and has strayed from its course," he told Al-Arabiya, an Arabic-language television station. "I lived through the revolution and it called for freedom and democracy - but it has persecuted its leaders."

He also made clear his opposition to Teheran's alleged development of a secret nuclear weapons programme. "Iran will gain real power if freedom and democracy develop there," he said. "Strength will not be obtained through weapons and the bomb." READ MORE

Mr Khomeini, 47, is a Shia cleric, but he believes that the holy men who have run the country since 1979 - to whom he dismissively refers as "wearers of the turban" - abused their power following the overthrow of the Shah.

The Dubai-based satellite channel's website spelt out his backing for armed intervention by America, a country excoriated as the Great Satan by his grandfather and Iran's current rulers.

It stated: "As for his call to President Bush to come and occupy Iran, Hossein Khomeini explained that 'freedom must come to Iran in any possible way, whether through internal or external developments.

If you were a prisoner, what would you do? I want someone to break the prison [doors open]'."

His approach is even more hardline than that of fiercely anti-regime Iranian exiles, who oppose military action while urging the US to back a domestic uprising.

It is the first time he has voiced his bitter opposition to the regime since Teheran engaged on its nuclear confrontation with the international community under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, its virulently anti-US president.

At home, the regime has recently faced violent protests by ethnic Azeris and demonstrations by students' and women's groups.

Mr Khomeini briefly emerged as an unlikely critic of the Islamic Republic in 2003, when he called for armed invasion during a visit to Washington and New York.

The cleric returned to Iran at his family's insistence and was protected from retribution by his grandfather's widow, Batol Saqafi Khomeini.

It is not clear why he has chosen now to speak out again or whether the regime was aware that he would be talking to Al-Arabiya after banning other media organisations from interviewing him. A translation of his comments, made on May 31, was first released last week by the Middle East Media Research Institute.

He said that if he came to power in Iran, one of his first acts would be to make wearing the hijab (veil) an optional choice for women.

Mr Khomeini's mentor is believed to be the regime's best-known religious critic, Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, who was released from house arrest in Qom in 2003 after six years for criticising the rule of Ayatollah Ali Khameini.

A Palace Coup in the making

Hossein Bagher Zadeh, Iran Press Service:

Ever since Aayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was defeated in his last bid to become president of the Islamic Republic (again) in June last year, observers have speculated on his future in the establishment and his likely next moves. He bitterly complained about the election that saw his unassuming rival Mahmood Ahmadi Nezhad sweeping to power. At the same time, he refrained from lodging an official complaint for what he saw as "vote-rigging" and "vote-fixing", on the grounds that "the people who are supposed to deal with these violations are the same who have committed them". This, coming from someone who has been the main pillar of the Islamic Republic since its formation, and who still carry a lot of weight both on and off the scene, sounded ominous. READ MORE

Mr. Rafsanjani is arguably the one person who has most influenced the Islamic regime in Iran. He has been at the centre of Iranian politics since the 1979 Islamic revolution and holding high positions of power. Soon after the revolution, he moved into the Interior Ministry before becoming Speaker of the Islamic parliament (Majles) where he stayed for 8 years.

Then, immediately after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini he became President of the Islamic regime, but only after changing the constitution to give his office executive power. He stayed in this position for two full terms totalling 8 years (maximum allowed by the constitution). Then he was out of office, but not out of government: he immediately assumed the position of Chair of the Expediency Council, an appointed body of high-ranking officials of the regime working both as an arbiter in disputes between other organs of the government, and as initiator of long-term strategy and plans of the Islamic Republic. He has held this position since 1997.

This means that Mr. Rafsanjani has been one of the 3 or 4 most powerful officials of the Islamic regime for over 25 years. But in reality, he has always been the strongman of the regime, wielding power far above his official position. During the first 10 years after the revolution when the founder of the Islamic Republic, Grand Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini was alive, he was the most powerful figure in the establishment, influencing all institutions of power. He was even instrumental in crowning his old mate, Hojjatoleslam Ali Khameneh’i as the Supreme Leader after the demise of Ayatollah Khomeini.

Before that, Khameneh’i had served as a ceremonial President for 8 years with not much power to rival that of Rafsanjani. During the whole period of 25 years, Rafsanjani has also built a powerful empire of vast economic and political networks ran by his extensive family and clan associates, many of whom holding key positions in state bodies and enterprises.

It was against this background that Rafsanjani entered the race for presidency last year; being almost certain that the establishment would not dare not letting him win the race.

When he found himself being challenged in the second run by the little-known political midget Ahmadi Nezhad, he was both surprised and alarmed. Few observers could have predicted that Ahmadi Nezhad could beat other favourites to go into the second run. It was by now obvious that some machination was in place to manipulate the system in favour of Ahmadi Nezhad, and this worried Rafsanjani and his election officials. Many reformists organised a "stop-Ahmadi Nezhad" campaign and rallied around Rafsanjani. But this did not help Ahmadi Nezhad produced another surprise and declared the winner by a comfortable margin.

It was obvious to all that the election has been manipulated extensively to produce this result. Hojjatoleslam Mehdi Karroubi, former Speaker of the Majles, the only other clergy in the race, who narrowly lost the second position in the fist run of the election to Ahmadi Nezhad (and so lost the chance of entering the second run) filed a long list of anomalies and clear cases of manipulations of the election system, and pointed the finger directly at the office of Supreme Leader and in particular to his son, Mojtaba, whom he accused of extensive vote-rigging.

When the second run was over, Rafsanjani made similar allegations but in general terms and without naming names. When asked why he didn’t complain officially about these violations, he said (as quoted earlier) -- the people who are supposed to deal with these violations are the same who have committed them". In the circumstances, nobody was left in doubt of whom he had in mind.

The power structure in the Islamic Republic is built around the Supreme Leader, who has absolute power over all the institutions, whether appointed by him or "elected" by the people. Officially, election complaints are lodged with the Guardian Council whose task is to monitor it. It was well within Rafsanjani’s rights to lodge a complaint and see what happens.

In the event that the Guardian Council could not resolve the issue satisfactorily, he could refer the case to the Supreme Leader for a sympathetic view, and whose words would be final. That was the case in the days of the leader of the revolution Ayatollah Khomeini. Now that Khameneh’i was sitting in his place, Rafsanjani could have expected more sympathy in a blatant case like this. Except if he had suspected Khameneh’i and his entourage being part of the problem rather than the solution, something that Karroubi has alleged publicly and Rafsanjani himself alluded to in his statement.

Whatever the details, it was obvious that a rift has opened deep in the power structure of the Islamic Republic. Against Rafsanjani and his cliques, a powerful block has been formed consisting of veteran revolutionary guards, paramilitary commanders loyal to Khameneh’i and ultra-conservative clerics headed by Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi. This block has also got Khameneh’i’s ears with powerful agents of their own in his office.

The two camps started swiping at each other right after the election. However, most of the skirmishes so far have been by proxy and indirect. But two weeks ago, the gloves came off. Rafsanjani was due to speak in Qom on the anniversary of Khomeini’s death.

The meeting was violently disrupted by members of the Mesbah camp shouting him down. Worse than that, they were chanting "marg bar zedd-e velayat-e faqih" (death to those opposed to the rule by clergy). This has been the standard government-led mob chant against various opposition groups over the last 27 years -- many of whom subsequently annihilated.

It was also very ironic: Rafsanjani has not only been one of the main architects of the Islamic system based on the rule by clergy, but he has also been instrumental in promoting the present leader to this position. It was now his turn to be at the receiving end of this treatment.

There were condemnations all round of the way these elements have behaved towards this pillar of the Islamic Republic. But not from the Supreme Leader. The most he would do, reported unofficially, was to "express alarm" at this development in a meeting with Rafsanjani after his return to Tehran.

This fell obviously short of condemnation in a public statement and amounted to offering no more than a lip service. It was apparent that what was started in June last year has gone much further, and a showdown was inevitable. Khamenei is apparently siding with the Mesbah camp and is not going to be swayed by his old mate and kingmaker Rafsanjani.

What has prompted this showdown is the upcoming the election for the "Assembly of Experts" -- a body of religious leaders equipped with the task of appointing, monitoring and sacking the Supreme Leader. However, due to the incestuous nature of the power structure in the Islamic Republic, only those known for their loyalty to the Supreme Leader can be qualified to stand for the election.

As a result, this body has been a talking shop for its members to praise the virtues of the Leader and pave the way for their election next round. Rafsanjani is an influential member of this assembly. It is likely that if he is elected again, he may assume its presidency and so exercise some power over Khameneh’i and his supporters in the Mesbah camp. This is evidently not a pleasant outcome for them. And that’s why they have started this campaign to block his entry into the assembly, and perhaps to repeat the presidential election scenario, filling the assembly with their own nominees.

But the onslaught against Rafsanjani has already generated a counter-attack. Few days ago, the daily jomhoori eslami, one of the two establishment papers, carried a veiled threat against Mesbah and his associates recalling the cases of two highest-ranking religious leaders who fell from favour during Khomeini’s time, namely Grand Ayatollahs Kazem Shari’atmadari and Hosseinali Montazeri, and both were discredited and stripped off their positions.

The paper compared their opposition to Khomeini at the time to those who now oppose Khomeini’s co-thinkers (Rafsanjani) and put them in the same brackets. Rafsanjani is known to have had played a major role in the fate of those two religious leaders (and in the bloody suppression of their supporters), and the paper’s reference to those events implied that he could do the same again -- now.

Furthermore, the independent internet daily “roozonline” reported that some reformist parties have approached Rafsanjani and urged him to stand in the election for the Assembly of Experts.

They obviously see him as a counterweight to the absolute power of the Supreme Leader, now being exercised more than ever before. All in all, these developments point to a standoff between the two pillars of the Islamic Republic. Khameneh’i is suspicious of Rafsanjani and his supporters, while Rafsanjani having been cheated out of the presidential chair with the connivance of Khameneh’i has enough reasons to plot against Khameneh’i. Moreover, he is being encouraged by the antics of Mesbah and his supporters and may see the time is right to strike back.

All in all, a coup is being hatched in the palace of vali-ye faqih. And it may not be all clean and hygienic. Watch the events as they unfold….

EDS BAQERZADEH 17606

Tehran to give "transparent" answer

Stanislav Khamdokhov, RIA Novosti:

Tehran will give an "absolutely transparent" answer to the Iran Six's package of proposals to settle the crisis around the Iranian nuclear program, the country's foreign minister said Saturday. READ MORE

The foreign ministers of Russia, the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Germany and France approved at a Vienna meeting June 1 a package of proposals that envisioned Iran suspending work to enrich uranium.

"Iran's reply to Europe's package of proposals, as well as the process of uranium enrichment [in Iran], will be absolutely transparent," Manouchehr Mottaki told journalists.

Mottaki also said Tehran was assessing these proposals "as a step forward."

The Iranian foreign minister said Iran would closely consider these proposals and then submit its proposals for the Europeans' consideration.

After the June 1 meeting, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the proposals embraced three spheres - Iran's nuclear program, economic and trade cooperation with Tehran and security guarantees.

1,000 Protest Before Iran World Cup Match

Matt Moore, Forbes:

More than 1,000 people gathered peacefully Saturday to protest the Iranian president's denial of the Holocaust as Iran played its second match at the World Cup.

Demonstrators waved Israeli flags at the rally outside the Alt Oper opera house in Germany's financial capital. Some held up signs reading "Support Israel Now!" and "Israel has the right to exist."

They were joined by a small group of Iranian dissidents with their country's flags, though police said there was no trouble. READ MORE

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has caused international outrage by dismissing the Holocaust as a myth and questioning Israel's right to exist.

Germany's interior minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, has said that his country would have to accept a visit by Ahmadinejad if he decided to come during the World Cup.

Holocaust survivor and scholar Arno Lustiger told the rally that any welcome for Ahmadinejad would "be a provocation to all German Jews."

Ahmadinejad has not announced any firm plans to attend. However, Germany's Central Council of Jews has said the presence at the tournament of one of Ahmadinejad's seven vice presidents, Mohammed Aliabadi, already is a provocation.

An estimated 1,200 people, many of them German Jews, demonstrated against Ahmadinejad before Iran's loss to Mexico in its opening World Cup game in Nuremberg last Sunday. Portugal beat Iran 2-0 on Saturday.

The prospect of a possible Ahmadinejad visit has been a delicate issue for the German government, which is involved in diplomatic efforts to defuse a standoff over Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Schaeuble has refused to meet his Iranian counterpart, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, during the World Cup.

His ministry said the Iranian embassy in Berlin had asked whether Schaeuble would meet Pourmohammadi during a visit to an unspecified Iran World Cup game. Despite reservations, a ministry statement said, a meeting would have provided a chance to condemn Ahmadinejad's statements and to press the case for early release of a German tourist held in Iran after his boat allegedly strayed into Iranian waters.

However, it said an Iranian official's recent statement that the man would not be released early removed a "significant basis of business" for any meeting.

German Jewish leaders have worried about possible shows of support for Ahmadinejad by Germany's far right.

Police rejected an application from the far-right National Democratic Party to stage a rally in Frankfurt Saturday, and the party did not appeal the ban.

Iran will play its last Group D match against Angola in Leipzig on Wednesday.

GCC Ports Plan to Avert Fallout of Iran Standoff

Adnkronos International:

The six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council have agreed to link all GCC ports to guarantee the smooth flow of goods should the nuclear stand off between neighbouring Iran and the West escalate, the local daily Gulf News reports. Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri, the UAE minister of governmental sector development, said they discussed alternative ports in the case of a crisis or emergency in the Gulf. "There are three concerned technical committees [land, sea, and air transport] to study the issue." READ MORE

Mohammad Obaid Al Mazroui, assistant undersecretary at the GCC General Secretariat, said, they agreed to link all GCC ports, as the two access points Hormuz and Bab Al Mandab straits might be affected by current political or security crisis.

He said they were also establishing a joint company to organise the linking of the ports.

Iran Says Will Offer Nuke Package Changes

Ali Akbar Dareini, The Washington Post:

Iran's foreign minister said Saturday the government likely would suggest amendments to a Western package of incentives meant to persuade the Islamic republic to give up its uranium enrichment program.

Manouchehr Mottaki would not give any timing for Iran's response. The Tehran regime previously has said some parts of the package were acceptable while others needed to be changed, and the central issue of uranium enrichment needed clarification. READ MORE

"It is a step forward," he said.

Mottaki said Iran would come up with its own amendments to the package.

"In the end, we will present our proposals. It's a two-way street," he told reporters at a joint news conference with Iraqi politician Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who heads that country's largest Shiite party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

Mottaki's remarks echoed comments made Friday by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"Generally speaking, we're regarding this offer as a step forward and I have instructed my colleagues to carefully consider it," Ahmadinejad said after meeting Chinese President Hu Jintao in Shanghai.

Iran denies accusations by the United States and others that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons, saying its program would only generate energy.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana presented the package of perks and possible penalties, drawn up by the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany, to Tehran on June 6. It includes promises that the United States and Europe would provide nuclear technology and that Washington would join direct talks with Iran.

Crucially, the package calls on Iran to suspend, not permanently halt, uranium enrichment, a process that can make nuclear fuel for a power plant or fissile material for an atomic bomb.

But Iran has said it will not give up its right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to enrich uranium and produce nuclear fuel, though it has indicated it may temporarily suspend enrichment to ease tensions.

The United States and Europe support Security Council sanctions if Iran refuses to accept the package.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in remarks published Saturday that Iran's consideration of the package was a positive sign, although the international community was still waiting for a "solid answer."

"So far, we have no solid signal, no real reaction," Steinmeier was quoted as telling the weekly Der Spiegel.

Syria to Procure Iranian Missiles

Middle East Newsline:

Iran and Syria have signed a defense cooperation agreement that would include the Syrian procurement of Iranian missiles, air defense systems and main battle tanks.

Officials said the agreement, signed on Thursday, stipulated the formation of a Supreme Defense Commission and the expansion of defense industrial cooperation between Damascus and Teheran. They said Iran has offered numerous weapons as well as the establishment of defense production facilities in Syria. READ MORE

"They [Iran and Syria] stressed the strengthening of mutual ties and the necessity to preserve peace and stability as well as the elimination of weapons of mass destruction from the region," an Iranian Defense Ministry statement.

The agreement was signed by visiting Syrian Defense Minister Hassan Turkmani and his Iranian counterpart, Mostafa Najar. Turkmani, who completed a four-day visit, said the pact was aimed against Israel and the United States.

Universities Not Become Military Camps

Dana Shahsavari, Rooz Online:

In their first press conference, the new student members of the Islamic Association of Amir Kabir University warned that they will not allow universities to be turned into prisons or military camps. They stressed that they would resist such moves to the end and protect the life of the academia.

This press conference was scheduled to begin at 10:30am on Tuesday, but university officials ordered the campus police to prevent any visitors who did not display a university ID card from entering the campus buildings. As a result, many guests, university teachers and parents face the rude gatekeepers who simply turned them away. READ MORE

Faced with angry reaction by students and some members of the association, university security agents claimed that they had been ordered by the university intelligence office to prevent suspicious individuals from entering the university.

For their conference, the new members of the association moved to the eastern wing of the campus and, putting up two tables close to the university fence, spoke with reporters about their demands and issues.

Students at Amir Kabir had been on strike for some 8 days now, protesting a ban on the elections for the association officers, and also the arrest of Abed Tavancheh and Yashar Qajar. Matin Meshkin, the secretary of the association’s election office said that many individuals had tried to block the debates over the elections and minister of education and his representatives inside the university were among them.

He pointed out that the main battle was between the university students on one side and the Basij (para-military force that is organized under the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards) and the representative of the leader of the Islamic regime (i.e. ayatollah Khamenei) in the university on the other. He told reporters that students were determined to work in the spirit of cooperation while the other side wished to dissolve the student association, which eventually led to the student protests and strikes.

He warned that protesting students would not allow the university to be turned into a military camp. “We believe interference in student affairs is an assault on student’s independence and request Mr. Ahmadinejad to spare the university of his mercy", Meshkin said in a reference to what the president has said are his policies.

Pointing to students' protests and strikes, Alireza Gharegozlou, another member of the student association said, "Student protests on May 20 were spontaneous and they called for their legal and professional rights, while the association believes that the university’s management is responsible for the illegal misconduct that provoked the protests".

According to these student leaders, when officials failed to ban the student association elections, they arrested Abed Tavancheh and Yashar Qajar. Officially, no one has taken the responsibility for their detention in Evin prison, according to Ali Azizi, an elected member of the association.

He warned that students would not remain silent or passive if the student arrests led to the broadcast of fake and forced confessions on national television, practice that is common by governments in Iran.

Another new student association member Mehdi Saeedpour said that while students used to be accused of secularism, university officials have gone overboard in accusing students of having relations with foreigners or linking them to Jondollah terrorist group.

Somayeh Mirershad, an elected member said that the university would blossom only if it remained independent from power players, adding that the new association would pay special attention to cultural and legal rights of students.

Pointing to the new trend of cracking down on university students and professors, Abbas Hakimzadeh, another member of the new central council warned, “If we do not achieve our goals through government agencies, then we will refer the issues and our demands to international bodies.”

This unprecedented press conference continued while former and new members of the student body entered their eighth day of strike. Their demands were not too complicated. Their banners simply read: "Free Asher and Abed", "Don't impose intelligence views", etc.

Reformists Ask Rafsanjani to Run for Experts Assembly

Hamed Irani, Rooz Online:

According to a Rooz reporter, a number of reformist parties have asked veteran Iranian politician Hashemi Rafsanjani to run in the upcoming Majles-e Khobregan-e Rahbari (Experts Assembly for Leadership) election.

Ali Meshkini's failing health will not allow him to run for another term to lead the Assembly. There are reports that hardline and extremist groups have made extraordinary efforts in advising Hashemi Rafsanjani against running for the Experts Assembly position. READ MORE

A recent disruption of a speech that Rafsanjani was delivering in Qom was attributed to ultra-conservative groups opposing the cleric and are said to have taken place in the same light. Such efforts are interpreted as parts of a larger scheme to remove Rafsanjani from the political field altogether, including the Majles-e Khobregan. Those pursuing such practices and goals favor their own candidate, ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi who is known to be very close to the current administration and military-security figures.

Members of the Majlis (Iran’s Parliament) minority group comprising mostly of reformists, recently applauded a letter that former Majlis leader Mehdi Karroubi had sent to ayatollah Ahmad Janati in which he criticized Janati’s exaggerated praise of president Ahmadinejad.

While appreciating the timing of Karroubi's letter to Janati, Rafsanjani had called it a sign indicating the positive role of the faction in criticizing the administration. Rafsanjani had also called for protecting the achievements of the country during the last 25 years, while criticizing the current situation and atmosphere over the country.

Shah of Iran compared to Islamist rule

Hatip to RFC.

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 6.17.2006:

Ahmadinejad again calls for an independent investigation of the Holocaust.

• Yahoo News reported that Iran's president said that the six-nation incentive package aimed at getting his country to halt uranium enrichment was a "step forward" but also repeated assertions that the Nazi Holocaust was unproven, saying it should be independently investigated.
• Khaleej Times Online reported British Prime Minister Tony Blair sees no need for an inquiry into the Holocaust.

US and Russia expect an answer from Iran on the Perm-5 proposal.

• Yahoo News reported that while US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Iran had made "positive statements" about Western proposals to resolve a row over its nuclear program, but she also added "we need an answer" from Tehran.
• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's foreign minister Lavrov said he expects an answer from Iran on starting talks to resolve the crisis around its nuclear program in the near future.

Taheri on how Ahmadinejad is pushing for Armageddon.

• Amir Taheri, The New York Post reported on the new power struggle inside of Iran and how Ahmadinejad's faction is pushing for Armageddon.

Ledeen on the much reported Al Qaeda document found in Iraq.

• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online suggested we should be careful not to be deceived by the recent Al Qaeda document found in Iraq.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Akhbaremovasagh.blogfa.com reported that last month, elements of the intelligence services of Iranian regime abducted the seventeen year-old Shima, the daughter of Koorosh Ahmadi, a political activist in Iran.
• Asia Times argued that the Western crisis with Iran is put part of a larger struggle taking place: a tripolar contest among the United States, Russia and China for domination of the greater Persian Gulf.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat published a book review of - Islamic Imperialism: A History. He reports it is a must read.
• Photo of an interesting Iranian protest in Paris.

Tags: iran, news, nuclear

Pushing for Armageddon: Inside Iran's New Power Struggle

Amir Taheri, The New York Post:

WHILE the crisis over Iran's nuclear program dominates the head lines, the stage is set for an even bigger internal crisis that could affect the Islamic Republic's behavior for some time to come.

The burgeoning crisis is, in fact, the latest episode in a bitter struggle that started more than four years ago when a new elite of younger, mostly non-clerical, revolutionaries made its bid for power against the older elite of ruling mullahs and their business associates.

The emerging elite first succeeded by winning control of a majority of municipal councils, which it used as a base for winning the Islamic Consultative Assembly, the regime's unicameral parliament. Then, a year ago, that enlarged base allowed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the candidate of the new elite, to defeat Hashemi Rafsanjani, the standard-bearer of the old guard, in the presidential election. READ MORE

Many in Iran see the new elite's relentless bid for power as a "creeping coup d'etat." If so, the creeping is not over yet. The new elite have two other citadels of power to conquer before firmly claiming control.

The first is the Assembly of Experts, a 90-man body tasked with electing and, when necessary, dismissing the "Supreme Guide." Right now, the old elite controls the assembly, with Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Meshkini as speaker and Rafsanjani, the defeated presidential candidate, as one of his deputies. But the assembly comes up for re-election in November, and the new elite appears determined to win. Its candidate for speaker is Ayatollah Ahmad Janati, a radical mullah with close ties to Ahmadinejad.

If the assembly falls, the new elite will likely try to capture the position of "Supreme Guide," held by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's death in 1989. Even if this proves harder than the "new men" presume, an assembly in their control would look like a sword of Damocles hanging above Khamenei's head.

The new elite's candidate for "Supreme Guide" is Ayatollah Muhammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, a dour-faced theologian in Qom known for his radical interpretation of the doctrine of the "Hidden Imam." But especially significant here is his belief that the mullahs should not directly intervene in government - a contrast with both Khomeini's and Khamenei's view, which rejects the slightest demarcation between religion and politics.

The old elite is determined not to lose control of the Assembly of Experts. Many mullahs have set aside past personal rivalries to unite in what could be called an "Anyone But Mesbah-Yazdi" coalition. Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Nateq-Nuri, a former speaker of the Islamic Majlis (parliament), has joined such longtime rivals as Rafsanjani and former President Muhammad Khatami.

So far, however, the trio of mullahs has encountered little more than hostility from the public. Last week, Rafsanjani had to flee for his life when a crowd of angry pro-Ahmadinejad youths attacked a meeting he was supposed to address in Qom. Nateq-Nuri has become the target of an orchestrated campaign focused on his business interests at home and abroad. And Khatami has been forced to cancel his campaign commitments in five provinces after police warned that he risked being beaten up by angry mobs.

For his part, Khamenei has maintained an uneasy distance from both camps while his son discusses a compromise with the "new men."

Much of this power struggle is fueled by personal rivalries and mundane political differences, but its theological theme bears mention, too. This centers on a dispute that has marked duodecimo (Twelver) Shi'ism for over 1,000 years.

The duodecimo Shi'ites believe that Allah created the world for the family of Muhammad and bestowed all power on 12 descendants of his favorite daughter Fatimah. The last of the 12, one Muhammad bin Hassan, known as the Mahdi (The Guide), disappeared in 940 AD, ushering in a period of "ghaybat al-kubra" (Long Absence) during which no government anywhere in the world has legitimacy. The return of the Hidden Imam, the Mahdi, will mark the end of the world as we know it and the start of a new and perfect one.

The theological division among Shi'ites concerns a simple question: What should believers do while the Imam is absent? One doctrine, known as Intizar (waiting) maintains that the best that believers can do is to be patient and wait until the Imam decides to return. Followers of that doctrine are known as Muntazeris (Those Who Wait).

That doctrine is opposed by another known as Ta'ajil (To hasten). Its adepts believe that believers should act to hasten the coming of the Mahdi. The Ta'ajilis (Hasteners) insist that believers should seek to unite the entire Islamic ummah and lead it into battle against the "Infidel," with the view of provoking a final showdown for global domination in the hope that, when the crunch comes, the Hidden Imam will return to ensure the victory of the Only Truth.

Throughout history, the overwhelming majority of Shi'ites in Iran have subscribed to the doctrine of Patient Waiting. The new elite, however, is decidedly seduced by the doctrine of Hastening the Return. President Ahmadinejad openly claims that the aim of his government's actions is to hasten the coming of the Mahdi.

The Hasteners have put together a powerful coalition backed by large segments of the military and security services. This includes the Fedayeen (self-sacrificers) of Islam, the Coalition of Islamic Associations, the Hezbollah (Party of Allah) and the United Front of the Followers of the Imam.

Against that background, the current showdown between the Islamic Republic and the United Nations over the nuclear issue assumes special significance. If the major powers are perceived to be backing down, the Hasteners would be able to claim victory and use it as a springboard for winning the Assembly of Experts and, later, evicting Khamenei. If, on the other hand, Ahmadinejad is forced to eat his words and agree to stop uranium enrichment, the Patient Awaiters could expose him as a bluffer pushing the nation towards war.

The major powers have no easy options here. But that has been the case in Iran since the mullahs swept to power in 1979.

Amir Taheri, former executive editor of the most important Iranian newspaper, Kayhan, is a member of Benador Associates.

A must read.