Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [10/02-10/08] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance)

Ahmadinejad - Weakened by The Supreme Leader.

• Rooz Online reported that the "Supreme Leader" is turning to Rafsanjani for help with Ahmadinejad.
• Iran Press News reported that Rafsanjani is now meeting with diplomats in what is believed to be an attempt to calm the fears of western diplomats over recent statements by Ahmadinejad's government.
• Hamid Ahadi, Rooz Online reported that Ahmadinejad threatened Rafsanjani.
• Gareth Smyth, The Financial Times reported that Iran's fundamentalist president, recently met other senior leaders in Tehran and suggested they should not worry unduly about growing western pressure.
• Bill Samii, Radio Free Europe reported a major development in the Iranian government. The Supreme Leader endorsed a change, which gives the unelected Expediency Council supervisory powers over the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government.
• Karl Vick, The Washington Post reported on Iran's Supreme Leader's recent weakening of President Ahmadinejad and the strengthening of Rafsanjanji.
  

Iran's Nuclear Program.

• Reuters reported that Iran's presidential office denied the president had given an interview to a Gulf paper which quoted him as saying Tehran may hold back on oil sales if its nuclear program is referred to the U.N. Security Council.
• The Globe & Mail in response to Ahmadinejad's denial the newspaper said it stands by the story.
• Islamic Republic News Agency reported that Majlis Speaker Gholamali Haddad Adel said: If Israel goes mad enough to target Iranian nuclear sites as it did against Iraqi installations in 1991, Iran would give it a lesson which it could not forget forever.
• Iran Press News reported that the Revolutionary Guard spokesman said: The danger of having to submit to the west is more dreadful than the referral of our nuclear dossier to the U.N. Security Council.
• Iran Press News reported that 110 workers of the Bushehr nuclear plant were fired.
• The Guardian UK reported that the United States urged governments to end nuclear projects with Iran.
• RIA Novosti reported that the Russian Foreign Ministry urged Iran to comply with the additional protocol to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
• Breitbart.com reported Iran's airwaves have been buzzing with two new tunes designed to rally public support for the regime's increasingly tense stand-off with the West over its nuclear ambitions.
• David R. Sands, The Washington Times reported Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has placed the military firmly in control of his nation's nuclear program.
• Iran Press News reported that Rafsanjani said recently: we hope that in the case of the our nuclear dossier as well, our adversaries do not do anything risky because it will have calamitous result for them.
• Indian Express reported the Indian government has no intention of giving its Left wing opposition any prior commitment on the Iran issue.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russia rejected the European tactic of pressuring Iran on its nuclear program.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that Iran hopes to gain support among countries in the Persian Gulf in its confrontation with the West over Tehran's disputed nuclear program.
• Middle East Online reported that Iran said it would not accept resuming negotiations with Britain, France and Germany on its nuclear program if the EU continued to insist the Islamic republic abandon fuel cycle work.
• India Express reported that South Africa has put forth a proposal to end the standoff with Iran on their nuclear program.
• Yahoo News reported that Iran's new uncompromising stance over their nuclear program is worrying some Iranian officials and leading to overt criticism.
• Interactive Investor reported that one of Iran's most prominent diplomats, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has resigned as a member of the country's nuclear negotiating team.
• Arash Motamed, Rooz Online provided valuable insight into Iranian thought on their current nuclear crises. I recommend it.
• Iran Press News reported that Friday, October 7th, the regime will stage orchestrated protests supporting the continuation of the regime's hazardous nuclear activities.
• Iran Press News quoted Mohammad El Baradei, in an interview with Al Jazeera TV, said: Trust in Tehran's regime has expired. He added he will not attest to the peacefulness of the regime's nuclear activities and that he has come to a crossroads.
• Xinhuanet reported that Iran will not invite EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana to the next round of nuclear talks with France, Britain and Germany saying: Iran is not satisfied with Solana's negative attitude toward Iran's nuclear program.
• San Jose Mercury reported that Russia's foreign minister dismissed speculation that Moscow might join talks between Iran and European negotiators.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran has made progress in its nuclear fuel cycle program.
• The Washington Times reported that the Bush administration expressed concern about the role of Iran's military in the country's nuclear programs.
• Nasser Karimi, The Guardian reported that Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told state-run TV that Iran would be entitled to put an end to unfettered inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency unless it changes its resolution on Iran.
• Soheil Asefi, Rooz Online interviewed Kamal Daneshyar, the chairman of the Majlis Energy committee, who called on the government to punish Britain and break off its diplomatic ties.
• TurkishPress reported that a top Iranian official said: Since the start of the crisis, Mohamed ElBaradei always resisted US pressure. But recently he has changed his position and his last report was very political.
• Khaleej Times reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that the next step by Iran in its nuclear program is to be starting the uranium enrichment process.
• The Financial Times reported that the European Union is considering restarting talks with Tehran.
• Iran Press News reported on the regime-orchestrated protests in support of nuclear activities.
• Iran Press News reported that Mullah Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council of the regime, said: The problem with what we're doing is that sometimes fear gets the best of us and we can see that happening where the nuclear issues are concerned. We should not fear sanctions however.
  

Iranian Dissidents.

• myTELUS reported that Mohammad Mohsen Sazgara, had been sentenced to five years in prison on charges of trying to topple the Islamic system.
• Eli Lake, The NY Sun reported on a leading Iranian dissident, Abbas Fakhravar, is planning his escape from the Islamic Republic after learning this weekend that the country's secret police have an order to shoot Mr. Fakhravar on sight. He is asking for US support for an internal regime change in Iran.
• Rooz Online reported on recent calls for the release of Abdolfattah Soltani, attorney for Akbar Ganji and the Kazemi family.
• Iran Press News reported that Dr. Roya Toloui, arrested in Iranian Kurdistan, is expected to be released on bail, today.
• Iran Press News reported on the first day of the trial of the Azadi Stadium defendants. The incident which took place on March 26th, 2005, after the end of the Iran/Japan Football (Soccer) match lead to the death of 7 spectators.
• Iran Press News reported that Massoumeh Babapour, a woman journalist, who disappeared on Monday, has been found, left for dead by her kidnappers having been stabbed 9 times.
• Iran Press News reported that a branch of the revolutionary court in the town of Sanandadj has issued a bail agreement in the amount of $10,000 each for two journalists.
• Iran Press News reported on the beatings, torture and threats of execution to political prisoners: Behrooz Javid-Tehrani, Javid-Tehran and Valiollah Fayz-Mahdavi.
• Iranian blogger, Morteza Abdolalian, Iran Watch Canada reported that Iranian dissident Afshari has left Iran , escaped 6 years imprisonment.
• Iran Press News reported that imprisoned activist; Payman Piran has had his visitation rights taken away.
• Iran Press News wife of imprisoned defense attorney, Abdolfatah Soltani has criticized the regime for failure to investigate the accusations leveled against her husband saying: Seventy days since Soltani's "temporary" arrest has passed and there have been no developments.

Who's who in Iran.

• Iranian blogger, Azarmehr, For a democratic secular Iran profiled Ahmadinejad's mentor, the mad Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

The Unrest Inside of Iran.

• Iran Focus reported that the Iranian capital’s police chief warned that State Security Forces would crack down on people eating in public during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
• SMCCDI reported that official warnings, threats, anti-riot maneuvers and barbarian acts are increasing in Iran.
• Iran Press News reported that the regime's own analysts are criticizing some of the extreme remarks made by Senior Iranian officials.
• Iran Press News reported that in Iranian Kurdistan, 23 wedding halls were closed down and pad-locked, charged with disobeying religious law. Security forces noticed a lack of respect for Islamic decency such as inappropriate [glittery] women's clothing, men and women dancing and celebrating together.
• Iran Press News reported that the Kurdish people's animosity with the Iranian government has nothing to do with a foreign conspiracy!
• Iran Press News reported that according to reports, Hossein Khodaayaari, Fine Arts student in Kerman University will be prosecuted on Nov. 16th, 2005.
• Farhad Mahdavi, Rooz Online reported that over the three-day weekend, residents of Tehran and its outer suburbs witnessed unannounced military exercises that involved the use of live munitions and firepower. They asked: Which threat needs to be cracked down?
  

Iran's troublemaking.

• The Guardian UK reported that Britain and Iran clashed openly after a senior British official directly accused Tehran of supplying Iraqi insurgents with sophisticated roadside bombs that have killed eight British soldiers.
• The Telegraph UK reported that a British diplomat detailed how Iran's Revolutionary Guards were helping to arm not only their Shia co-religionists but also the Sunni extremists who are killing ordinary Shias.
• The Guardian UK:Tony Blair warned yesterday he will not be diverted from the debate over Iran's nuclear program.
• The Telegraph reported that a senior British official said that there was evidence that the Iranians were now in contact with Sunni Muslim insurgent groups fighting the coalition forces in Iraq.
• Fort Wayne News-Sentinel reported that Prime Minister Tony Blair said that new explosive devices used against coalition forces in Iraq "lead us either to Iranian elements or to Hezbollah." "We cannot be sure," Blair told a news conference, but "there are certain pieces of information that lead us back to Iran."
• The Times reported Tehran fiercely denied claims that it had supplied sophisticated weapons used to kill British troops in southern Iraq. Hamid Reza-Asefi of the Iranian foreign ministry said: Britain's conspiracies have been revealed and its scandal in Iraq has made London make up this lie.
• The Christian Science Monitor provided a recap of the world media's coverage of the news reports of the UK's allegation of Iran's support for the insurgents in Iraq.
• Michael Smith, The Sunday Times reported on how the Foreign Office tried in vain to bury Iran links in supporting the insurgency in Iraq.
  

U.S. Policy.

• Ha'aretz reported that the aggressive policy of the U.S. is proving itself and the three-pronged "axis of evil" that President George W. Bush sketched is breaking apart.
• Lebanese Lobby reported that a well known minister in the Turkish parliament revealed that Steven Hadley, the American National Security advisor reported to the Turkish officials in his latest visit to Ankara, that Washington wants to use the "Angelink"” air base, in its operations to get rid of the Syrian regime. Hmmmm.
• The Financial Times reported that the US and Britain on Thursday issued blunt warnings to Iran and Syria over their alleged involvement with terrorist groups, with Tony Blair declaring there was no justification for Tehran interfering in Iraq's affairs.
• The White House released a transcript of President Bush's speech on the War on Terror at National Endowment for Democracy.
• The White House then released a Fact Sheet: President Bush Remarks on the War on Terror.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that with President Bush's top advisers set to discuss U.S. policy toward Iran today, the State Department has circulated a briefing paper that proposes significantly expanding U.S. diplomatic contacts with Tehran.
• The Associated Press then reported that while the Bush administration ruled out expanded diplomatic contacts with Iran.
• David E. Sanger, The New York Times reported that President Bush declared in a speech that the United States and its partners had disrupted 10 serious plots since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
  

The Iranian Military.

• Iran Press News reported onthe disastrous 3-day military maneuvers conducted by the Basij and Revolutionary Guards. They expected 20,000 Basij to take part but on only 1400 showed up and all did not go well among those that did.
• Jane's Defense Weekly is reporting that the Russian launch of Iran's first spy satellite has been delayed due to a malfunction.
• Middle East Newsline reported Britain is continuing to approve the export of military and security equipment to the Islamic republic.
  

The Economy.

• Iran Press News reported that $200 billion in capital has left Iran since Ahmadinejad's installation to presidency. It appears people are voting with their pocketbooks.
• Iran Press News reported that a million more people are added to the illiterate population of Iran.
• Science Daily reported that Iran will invest up to $50 billion in the oil sector over the next five years.
• Iran Press News reported that multi-national corporations investing in Iran will no longer be insured.
• Iran Press News reported that the governent is warning there will be a serious lack of fuel this winter in Iran, affecting power plants.
• Farnaz Ghazizadeh, Rooz Online discussed the problems of fighting economic corruption and Iranian Officials. 704 cases of abuse of power and government posts have been finalized and 395 other files are under review.
• Yahoo News reported that Iran could run out of oil reserves in nine decades.
  

Human Rights/Freedom of the press inside of Iran.

• Reuters reported that Canadian Foreign Minister Pierre Pettigrew said they will put forward a resolution in the United Nations shortly accusing Iran of human rights violations. Faster please.
• Rooz Online asked: Is Iran about to make concessions on human rights?
• Mehrdad Sheibani, Rooz Online reported that the leader of the judiciary branch, Hashemi Shahroodi, ordered a list be provided him with the grounds for the release of 34 political prisoners.
  

Protests inside of Iran.

• SMCCDIreported that at least two dozens of collective buses were set on fire, on Friday, after a football game played at Tehran's Azadi ('Freedom') Stadium.
• Iran Press News reported that after 9 months of non-receipt of their wages, 620 mine workers intensified their protests against Sangrood Mines.
• Iran Press News reported on the 3rd day of a sit-in by Fine Arts students protesting the issuance of suspension of two university terms of two of the fellow classmates.
• Iran Press News reported the 5th day of the Fine Arts University students' sit-in. After days of willful dereliction, the president of the university finally issued a statement.
  

Iran and the International community.

• Iran Focus reported that Iran has set up a torture chamber in Baghdad where agents of its notorious Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) have brutally tortured Iraqi youth.
• Micah Halpern, FrontPagMagazine explains why Gholam Ali Haddad Ade's trip to Lebanon and Syria is so important.
• BBC News reported that talks between Iranian and Saudi Arabian officials been postponed.
• Iran Press News reported IRI Embassy demanded the Japan Times correct an article on Iran's nuclear program that they claimed contained lies.
• Iranian.ws reported that Islamic Republic Broadcasting launched first Qoranic tv network on Thursday in Tehran.
• Iranian.ws reported that Ali Larijani met with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad on Wednesday and The two senior officials underlined the need for maintaining vigilance and integrity among Muslim states against the enemies' conspiracies.
• Baku TODAY reported while the United States has undertaken the construction of a radar installation near Iran's northern border, this military assistance from the United States, was not a threat to its neighbors.
  

Insight into the Iranian people.

• Iranian.ws conducted an online poll asking: As an Iranian, If (or when) time comes to choose between 'Islam or Iran', which one will you support? 91.4% chose Iran.
• Scott Peterson, The Christian Science Monitor discussed the concern Iranian musicians have of a potential crackdown on their work.
• Iranian blogger, ET, View from Iran said that fear of repression in Iran has lead many to become liars.
  

Can You Believe This?

• Dr. DK reported that ten years in prison and 75 whips of the lash await an Iranian man being deported from Denmark to Iran.
• The Spirit of Man reported that Iran's justice minister spokesperson, angry that Canada is preparing a UN resolution condemning Iran's human rights record, said: Canada has a dark and poor record of human rights and these countries can't talk of human rights issues in Iran.
  

Must Read reports.

• Paul Owens, Orlando Sentinel quoted Ilan Berman's, author of Tehran Rising, as saying: the Islamist war against the United States" began with the Iranian Revolution, not the Sept. 11, 2001.
• Iranian blogger, ET, View from Iran provided tips for journalists visiting Iran.
• John Hall, Richmond Times discussing Ilan Berman's book, Tehran Rising, said one of the great ironies of the Iraq war was that Iraq's next-door neighbor, Iran, emerged as a big regional winner, at least temporarily.
• Erik Sass, Foreign Policy published a report of the MEK [and its desire now to become friends of the US] and said: With friends like these...

The Experts.

• Amir Taheri, Arab News reportted on an adventure that can backfire - The dangerous assumptions of Iran's war architect.
• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard takes a close look at Iranian Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani and the Qods (Jerusalem) Force unit under his command and his efforts in Iraq. A must read.
  

Photos, Cartoons, Audio and Video of the week.

• Winston, The Spirit of Man published a link to a good video on ancient Persia.
• Iranian blogger, Korosh, The Price of Freedom published photos of Iranian Guards practicing for demonstrations.
• Cox & Forkum published the cartoon: Rustler's Rhapsody.
• Cox & Forkum published the cartoon: Frontlines.
• Memri published excerpts from a debate on Iran's Jaam-e Jam 1 TV about 9/11. Video included.
• Atlas Shrugs found this great cartoon: Iran Considers the UN's Deal?
• RoozOnline published a cartoon: Rafsanjani is always No 2 in Islamic Republic.
• Iranian Student News Agency published photos of another anti-riot exercise by IRGC Special Units.
• Winston, The Spirit of Man published a photo of another fake demonstration: Students, Students... We Support You!
  

And finally, The Quote of the Week.

Hassan Abbasi, Ahmadinejad's chief strategic guru and architect of the so-called "war preparation plan" currently under way in Iran said:

"Once we have defeated the Anglo-Saxons the rest will run for cover..."

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 10.8.2005:

An adventure that can backfire - The dangerous assumptions of Iran's war architect.

Amir Taheri, Arab News:

Having secured most key positions in the past few months, the new generation of Iran's Islamic revolutionaries is now invited to prepare for playing "chicken" with the United States. ...

the man who first came up with the analysis is Hassan Abbasi who has emerged as Ahmadinejad's chief strategic guru.

Abbasi heads the Center for Security Doctrines Research of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (RGC). His friends call him "The Kissinger of Islam", after Henry Kissinger who served as US secretary of state in the 1970s.

"To Iran's new ruling elite, Abbasi is the big strategic brain," says a European diplomat in Tehran. "More and more officials quote him in meetings with foreign diplomats."

Last month Abbasi presented an outline of his analysis in a lecture at the Teachers Training Faculty in Karaj, west of Tehran.

The lecture merits attention because it offers an insight into the way the new leadership in Tehran approaches issues of international politics. READ MORE

This is the same Hassan Abbassi who said:

We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization... we must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front by means of our suicide operations or by means of our missiles. There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them.

With people like him serving as the architect of their so-called "war preparation plan," we must take these threats very seriously. This is a must read.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• The Financial Times reported that the European Union is considering restarting talks with Tehran.
• Middle East Newsline reported Britain is continuing to approve the export of military and security equipment to the Islamic republic.
• Karl Vick, The Washington Post reported on Iran's Supreme Leader's recent weakening of President Ahmadinejad and the strengthening of Rafsanjanji.
• Iran Press News reported on the regime-orchestrated protests in support of nuclear activities.
• Iran Press News reported that imprisoned activist; Payman Piran has had his visitation rights taken away.
• Iran Press News wife of imprisoned defense attorney, Abdolfatah Soltani has criticized the regime for failure to investigate the accusations leveled against her husband saying: Seventy days since Soltani's "temporary" arrest has passed and there have been no developments.
• Iran Press News reported that Mullah Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council of the regime, said: The problem with what we're doing is that sometimes fear gets the best of us and we can see that happening where the nuclear issues are concerned. We should not fear sanctions however.
• Iran Press News reported the 5th day of the Fine Arts University students' sit-in. After days of willful dereliction, the president of the university finally issued a statement.
• And finally, Winston, The Spirit of Man reported that Iran's justice minister spokesperson, angry that Canada is preparing a UN resolution condemning Iran's human rights record, said: Canada has a dark and poor record of human rights and these countries can't talk of human rights issues in Iran.

Regime-orchestrated protests in support of nuclear activities

Iran Press News: Translation by Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi

Following the weekly Friday prayers spectacle, the regime's operatives and hirelings took to the streets of various cities and towns around Iran to demonstrate their support for the Islamic Republic's nuclear activities.

They yelled: "Nuclear energy is our absolute right. The Board of Governors' session is an American conspiracy; Death to France, Death to Germany, Death to Britain, Death to the U.S...."

According to reports from the regime-run news agencies: "These protestors called the efforts of the regime's authorities in reinstating the nuclear activities as a courageous act." Their placards and banners read: "The suspension of the centrifuges was an idle thought" AND "If the Supreme Leader commands, we will sacrifice our lives for him."

The demonstration was a failure. Other news reports claimed that the size of the demonstration was in the tens of thousands. In Iran, where the government can require and/or intimidate government workers and those receiving government pensions to show up, the numbers should have easily been in the hundreds of thousands.

Instead of showing massive support for the nuclear policies of the regime it proved the opposite.

No visitors allowed for imprisoned activist Payman Peeraan

Iran Press News: Translation by Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi

Tabriz News - Human Rights Service: Imprisoned activist, Payman Piran has had his visitation rights taken away.

Based on received reports, Peeraan's mother who tried to visit her son on Wednesday, October 5th at Evin Prison in Tehran, was turned away by confrontational officials.

Peeraan who has served 18 months from his 6 years sentence has not been given permission [unlike all other prisoners] for either a "medical" or "deserved" furlough from prison.

When is Soltanis' trial?

Iran Press News: Translation by Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi

Based on reports from the regime-run news agency ILNA, Massoumeh Dehqaan, wife of imprisoned defense attorney, Abdolfatah Soltani has criticized the regime for failure to investigate the accusations leveled against her husband. Seventy days since Soltani's "temporary" arrest has passed and there have been no developments.

Dehqaan said: "If my husband is guilty of misconduct why is it not being looked into. Otherwise, why is he still in detention? It appears that it is the public prosecutor himself who has a beef with my husband as my husband has spoken out against him; does the religious and common law permit the plaintiff and the judge to be the same person?"

Mullah Jannati: "Sometimes we are overcome with fear"

Iran Press News: Translation by Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi

84-year-old Mullah Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council of the regime, in one of his grandstanding Friday Prayer sermons, mentioning the regime's nuclear crisis, revealed the deep fear and distress of several top brass of the Islamic regime where the referral of the IRI dossier to the U.N. Security Council is concerned. He said: "The problem with what we're doing is that sometimes fear gets the best of us and we can see that happening where the nuclear issues are concerned. We should not fear sanctions however because after all what we have developed in terms of our military industry and building missiles is quite progressive; we have developed these in spite of sanctions otherwise, we would be like those Arab countries who are chumps for their sustenance and then when the day comes that something goes wrong, they show just how two-faced and deceitful they really are. We are not looking to have sanctions put on us but if they do, we will not surrender. We are not as weak as they think. Westerners always defraud those who sit down to negotiate with them. I wish we had not started what we cannot finish."

President of the Fine Arts University issues a statement to protesting students

Iran Press News: Translation by Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi

The Fine Arts University students' sit-in is now on day 5. After days of willful dereliction, the president of the university finally issued a statement that read: "The issuance of the order against 3 students has been completed via legal processes and with concise consideration of the rules; based on these, said students, prior to having presented their request for reconsideration, claiming the original order to be unwarrantable, have exploited the chance to start a riot and make trouble at the beginning of a new scholastic year...just to be defiant."

The students have been protesting the suspension of two university terms of three of their fellow classmates; over the 5-day-long sit-in, repeated efforts were made to speak with University authorities in order to properly address the problem, however, no one had come forward.

One of the protesting students said: "Not one of the University directors came to meet and dialogue with us. They even blundered by contacting our families to have them come and take us home!"

An Adventure That Can Backfire

Amir Taheri, Arab News:

Having secured most key positions in the past few months, the new generation of Iran's Islamic revolutionaries is now invited to prepare for playing "chicken" with the United States.

"The Satanic powers want to play chicken with us," says Gen. Muhammad Hijazi, the man in charge of the Islamic army's office of war preparation. "We must show that we are eagles."

The idea that the Islamic Republic faces a game of "chicken" against the West was publicized last month by Ali Larijani, the new "security czar" in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration. But the man who first came up with the analysis is Hassan Abbasi who has emerged as Ahmadinejad's chief strategic guru.

Abbasi heads the Center for Security Doctrines Research of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (RGC). His friends call him "The Kissinger of Islam", after Henry Kissinger who served as US secretary of state in the 1970s.

"To Iran's new ruling elite, Abbasi is the big strategic brain," says a European diplomat in Tehran. "More and more officials quote him in meetings with foreign diplomats."

According to Tehran sources, Abbasi is the architect of the so-called "war preparation plan" currently under way in Iran.

Last month Abbasi presented an outline of his analysis in a lecture at the Teachers Training Faculty in Karaj, west of Tehran.

The lecture merits attention because it offers an insight into the way the new leadership in Tehran approaches issues of international politics.

According to Abbasi, the global balance of power is in a state of flux and every nation should fight for a place in a future equilibrium. The Western powers, especially the United States, still wield immense military and economic power that "looks formidable on paper." But they are unable to use that power because their populations have become "risk-averse."

"The Western man today has no stomach for a fight," Abbasi says. "This phenomenon is not new: All empires produce this type of man, the self-centered, materialist, and risk-averse man."

Abbasi believes that the US intervention in Iraq, which involved "slightly higher risks" than the invasion of Afghanistan, was the very last of its kind. And even then, the US went into Iraq because of President George W Bush's "readiness to do what no other American leader would dare contemplate."

According to Abbasi, the US knows that the only power capable of and willing to challenge it across the globe is the Islamic Republic. The reason is that the Islamic Republic not only enjoys "strong backing from its people", but also has the support of millions who are prepared to kill and die for it across the globe.

Abbasi claims that the US and its allies have played three games against Iran.

The first was a "carrots and sticks" exercise designed to tempt a section of the Tehran leadership away from radical politics while frightening another section into submission. The next game was "good cop, bad cop" and had the more sinister objective of confusing and dividing the Islamic leadership. Finally, and starting just over a year ago, the "satanic powers" played a new game which Abbasi has dubbed "trigger-at-the-ready." In this game they put the metaphoric gun at the Islamic Republic's temple with their finger on the trigger.

Abbasi believes that the trigger was pulled, firing only a blank, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed an anodyne resolution on the Islamic Republic's pursuit of nuclear power last month.

"Now that the satanic powers have failed to achieve their goal with all those games they are preparing for a new game," Abbasi says. " This new game is known as the Chicken Strategy in which the two sides move toward each other with speed until one side quits."

It is not clear whether Abbasi or other mullas have seen Nicholas Ray's "Rebel Without A Cause". But it was in that film, starring James Dean, that "playing chicken" was introduced to broader audiences. According to Webster dictionary, the phrase refers to "any of various contests in which the participants risk personal safety in order to see which one will give up first." The quitter is designated as "chicken livered."

Abbasi and his disciples in the new Islamic elite believe that this is the best time to engage the US in a "game of chicken."

"The Western regimes lack popular legitimacy," Abbasi told his audience. "The Western economy is based on shaky foundations that depend on oil. Divisions within the Western camp, the West's economic fragility, and the distrust of the people (in Western countries) toward their governments render their side vulnerable."

Abbasi believes that when President Bush says that no option is off the table, implying that force could be used against the Islamic Republic, he is only playing chicken.

"The Americans are not ready to send a million men (to defeat the Islamic Republic)," Abbasi said. "Even economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic will fail thanks to opposition from the Western public opinion and the refusal of most countries to implement (them)."

Abbasi claims that in a game plan presented to Ahmadinejad, he has concluded that the idea of a major US military attack against Iran is "a bluff."

"Our game plan shows that any attempt at imposing an embargo on Iran would push the price of oil to $110 per barrel," Abbasi said. "And if we were to be subjected to military attack the price could top the $400 mark."

A brief military clash with the US at this time could do wonders for the Islamic Republic. The regime would be able to crush growing internal opposition in the name of national solidarity. It would also revive the regime's revolutionary credentials. The raid on the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979 gave the new Islamic regime an aura of radicalism that it lacked because a revolution led by the mullas was hard to sell as a progressive, anti-imperialist movement. Abbasi also recalls that Iraq's invasion of Iran in 1980 was "a blessing from God" because it gave the revolutionary regime another chance to prove its resilience."

In true Nietzschean form he believes that since a limited war with the US will not kill the Islamic Republic; it is bound to make it stronger. READ MORE

But it is not only the US that Abbasi wants to take on and humiliate. He has described Britain as "the mother of all evils". In his lecture he claimed that the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Israel, and the Gulf states were all "children of the same mother: the British Empire." As for France and Germany, they are "countries in terminal decline", according to Abbasi.

"Once we have defeated the Anglo-Saxons the rest will run for cover," he told his audience.

Abbasi's strategy may be in tune with the current macho mood in Tehran. But the new Tehran leadership should think twice before it embarks on a potentially deadly, and totally unnecessary, adventure on the basis of childish assumptions about Iran's power and the West's weakness.

This is the same Hassan Abbassi who said:

We have a strategy drawn up for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization... we must make use of everything we have at hand to strike at this front by means of our suicide operations or by means of our missiles. There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and in the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them.

With people like him serving as the architect of their so-called "war preparation plan," we must take these threats very seriously. This is a must read.

EU Hoping to Restart Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Daniel Dombey in Brussels and Gareth Smyth in Tehran, The Financial Times:

The European Union is considering restarting talks with Tehran over Iran's nuclear programme, a move that could lead to tensions with the US. Washington would like its allies to take a tougher line on the issue, in particular in referring the issue to the United Nations Security Council.

Senior diplomats from the "EU3" countries that led negotiations with Tehran - Britain, France and Germany - met this week to discuss resuming the talks, which broke down in August. READ MORE

Tony Blair, UK prime minister, has since criticised Iran for allegedly "interfering" in Iraq, adding that the UK would not be "intimidated" in the nuclear negotiations. But European diplomats still hope to restart talks.

On Thursday IRNA, Iran's official news agency, quoted "an official close to the country's negotiation team" as saying that talks could restart "in the near future". It gave no details.

The talks broke down when Iran rejected an EU offer in August and resumed uranium conversion, a preliminary stage in the nuclear fuel cycle it had agreed to suspend as part of its agreement with the EU3.

While Iran insists its intentions are purely peaceful, the EU and the US suspect it of seeking to develop nuclear weapons. "Of course we would like a negotiated solution to this problem but it has to be under the terms of the agreement," said a EU3 diplomat.

But the EU3 meeting this week, which was also attended by diplomats from Spain and Italy, was intended as a "brainstorm" on ways of restarting the talks despite the Iranians' decision to begin conversion.

Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nation's nuclear watchdog, and the winner of this year's Nobel peace prize, has pushed the EU to resume the talks on a technical level. He is thought to consider conversion a secondary issue compared with uranium enrichment, a process that can produce weapons grade material.

Because of its successive deals with the EU3, Tehran has not carried out uranium enrichment for the past two years. "With Iran, we are having a hiccup right now," Mr ElBaradei said this week. "I have optimism that in the next month or so we will see some resumption of negotiations."

Time is running out, however, since the IAEA board is set to decide in late November whether to refer Tehran to the Security Council after having found Iran in "non-compliance" with its international obligations last month. Iran has threatened that any such move would lead it to resume enrichment, a threat that worries some EU diplomats.

"If we go to New York we need a strategy. If not it could affect the credibility of the UN," said one. "But for dialogue with the Iranians, the positions of both sides need to be consolidated."

Indeed, the problem Europe faces in trying to revive negotiations is finding an effective interlocutor.

Tehran's nuclear negotiation team was changed after the fundamentalist president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad took over in August, with Ali Larijani, the new top security official, sticking to Iran's existing positions.

UK Continues Military Exports to Iran

Middle East Newsline:

Despite concern over Iran's nuclear program, Britain continues to approve the export of military and security equipment to the Islamic republic. Officials said the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair has approved the sale of non-lethal military and security equipment to Iran. They said the exports were approved after Teheran pledged not to use the equipment for the military.

"We don't see our concern over the nuclear program as being connected to other Iranian missions which we have seen as vital," a British official said.

In mid-September, the government approved an export of body armor for Iranian security forces. Officials said the armor would be supplied to Iranian forces along the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Iran Moves to Curb Hard-Liners

Karl Vick, The Washington Post:

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Shiite Muslim cleric who holds ultimate authority in Iran, has altered the country's power structure by granting a relatively moderate panel new authority to supervise an elected government increasingly dominated by religious hard-liners.

Khamenei expanded the authority of the Expediency Council, an appointive body whose longtime chairman, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, is a fixture of Iranian politics and invariably described as wily insider. Rafsanjani lost last June's presidential election, but Khamenei's new decree, made public Oct. 1, gives Rafsanjani at least nominal supervision over the administration put in place by the winner, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. READ MORE

The council also was given supervisory authority over the Iranian parliament, despite the squawks of lawmakers who accused the council of a power grab. Previously, the council was only empowered to settle disputes between the parliament and the Guardian Council -- another, more influential appointive body -- and to advise Khamenei.

"The adjudication of the Expediency Council is the final word," council secretary Mohsen Rezai told reporters in Tehran, the capital, this week. "And even if other state sectors do not agree with it, it is the final word and they have to accept it."

The practical effect of the change remains to be seen. The structure of Iran's theocratic government is complex and its operations are opaque.

But analysts found significance in the timing of the change, which had been proposed to Khamenei years earlier. Coming now, the expansion of the Expediency Council's power was widely viewed as, at minimum, a gesture intended to restore some prestige to Rafsanjani. He played a key role in elevating Khamenei to the position of supreme religious leader after the 1989 death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution that installed Iran's religious government.

Others also saw an effort to balance the rise of hard-liners who control Iran's elective branches of government, as well as the judiciary and the Guardian Council. Control of parliament shifted to conservatives last year in an election the Guardian Council closed off to anyone else.

Ahmadinejad took office in August after a more credible victory -- a landslide fueled by a populist economic appeal. But he has had a shaky start. His cabinet selections proved controversial, and his confrontational approach to critics of Iran's nuclear program has been questioned even in Tehran.

"This is more than symbolic. This is the leader saying, 'We're moving too far right,' " said Karim Sadjadpour, who follows Iran for the International Crisis Group, a research group based in Brussels. "I'm loath to call Rafsanjani moderate, but in the current context, he is a voice of moderation."

Iran's government is united in defending its long-secret nuclear program, which it insists is intended only to generate electricity. But foreign diplomats said Iran's cause was hurt by the strident tone of the address that Ahmadinejad, a novice at foreign relations, delivered at the United Nations last month. U.S. diplomats seized on it to successfully lobby the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency to refer Iran to the Security Council.

Rafsanjani, 71, appeared to join in the criticism of Ahmadinejad at Friday prayers a week ago in Tehran.

"You need diplomacy and not slogans," said Rafsanjani, who is both a cleric and a millionaire businessman. "This is the place for wisdom, the place for seeking windows that will take you to the objective."

Ahmadinejad's cabinet nominations also drew criticism, and some ridicule. Parliament rejected four of his choices, including the nominee for Iran's vital oil ministry. The candidate had claimed to have a doctorate from an American college that turned out to be an on-line degree.

"Ahmadinejad has already shown that he needs a lot of supervision," said a professional political analyst in Tehran, who asked not to be named because his employer had not authorized his remarks. "Just last week his government sent two 'double urgent' bills to the parliament. He gets so excited."

Parliament approved his choice for interior minister, Mustafa Pourmohammadi, only after grilling him on his tenure as a top official in the Intelligence Ministry in the mid-1990s, when its agents were executing government critics in their homes. Two other ministries are headed by veterans of Iran's security services, and five more by veterans of the Revolutionary Guards, whose influence in government has steadily grown in recent years.

"The new guys are from a relatively dark place in the Islamic republic," said Ray Takeyh, an analyst for the Council on Foreign Relations based in Washington.

Sadjadpour said generational politics appeared to play a role in expanding the powers of Rafsanjani's council. Along with Khamenei, 66, Rafsanjani lived through the trauma of the Islamic revolution's early years, when the broad-based uprising against the U.S.-backed monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, soon splintered into bloody factional fighting. That was followed by a bloody eight-year war with Iraq.

"They go back three or four decades, and they've been through a lot together," Sadjadpour said. "I think Khamenei is tending domestically to his power base, and he does want to avert an international crisis."

Iran's Justice Minister Spokesman: Canada has a dark record of Human Rights

Winston, The Spirit of Man:

According to Gooya News, Iranian regime justice minister spokesperson has said that Canada, itself, has a dark record of human rights.

Canada has submit a resolution to the UN Human Rights Commission in order to condemn the Iranian government's poor human rights record.

This is the transcript of what the Mullahs say about Canada's human rights [This is pretty funny]:

Jamal Karimi Rad said in a press conference, we (Mullahs) warn the western governments not to behave like this since it will make them look grim in the history.

He added that this is nothing new as the global imperialism has been trying hard to make us look bad since the triumph of the Islamic Revolution and one of the areas they have been attacking us is the field of Human Rights.

He said that Islamic Republic was created to preserve the value of mankind.

" Western governments such as The US and Canada have been doing this in the past two years and this is nothing new by the anti human rights countries like them."

Spokesman of the justice ministry said that Iranian government has been very active in defense of all human beings around the world [ I wonder where they have been defending people?]

He also added that countries like Canada has a dark and poor record of human rights and these countries can't talk of human rights issues in Iran though. "The western countries are criticizing us due to their failure in defeating us in Nuclear talks", he said.

Friday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 10.7.2005:

Is Iran about to make concessions on human rights?

Rooz Online:

The judiciary directive to release imprisoned student activists, which was initially requested by the "Association for the Defense of the Rights of Prisoners" that specifically called for the release of 34 prisoners, and the judiciary’s recent emphasis on the necessity of having juries for political trials are new initiatives from the ultra-conservatives now in the driving seat in Tehran that signal more than just simple administrative changes.

In less than three months since it has come to power, the administration of president Ahmadinejad, it appears is trying to come up with a more cohesive domestic and even foreign policy to change the image that Iran has acquired and which is a barrier to many of its larger goals. Political observers have interpreted these moves to indicate a change to moderation from the initial hardline policies of the government. But for a purpose. They call this strategy “attack to defend”. In their view, the regime is aggressively trying to remove the foreign threat through this approach which it strongly defends in the face of public and even official criticism.

But attack what to defend what? READ MORE

While this appears to be merely a tactical retreat in response to growing demands for greater human rights in Iran, it shows the international support for Iranian dissidents is having an effect.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Nasser Karimi, The Guardian reported that Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told state-run TV that Iran would be entitled to put an end to unfettered inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency unless it changes its resolution on Iran.
• Farhad Mahdavi, Rooz Online reported that over the three-day weekend, residents of Tehran and its outer suburbs witnessed unannounced military exercises that involved the use of live munitions and firepower. They asked: Which threat needs to be cracked down?
• Soheil Asefi, Rooz Online interviewed Kamal Daneshyar, the chairman of the Majlis Energy committee, who called on the government to punish Britain and break off its diplomatic ties.
• Mehrdad Sheibani, Rooz Online reported that the leader of the judiciary branch, Hashemi Shahroodi, ordered a list be provided him with the grounds for the release of 34 political prisoners.
• TurkishPress reported that a top Iranian official said: Since the start of the crisis, Mohamed ElBaradei always resisted US pressure. But recently he has changed his position and his last report was very political.
• Baku TODAY reported while the United States has undertaken the construction of a radar installation near Iran's northern border, this military assistance from the United States, was not a threat to its neighbors.
• Khaleej Times reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said that the next step by Iran in its nuclear program is to be starting the uranium enrichment process.
• Michael Smith, The Sunday Times reported on how the Foreign Office tried in vain to bury Iran links in supporting the insurgency in Iraq.
• And finally, David E. Sanger, The New York Times reported that President Bush declared in a speech that the United States and its partners had disrupted 10 serious plots since the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Iran Says IAEA Inspections Could End

Nasser Karimi, The Guardian UK:

Iran could stop U.N. inspections of its nuclear facilities, its top envoy said Friday, as tens of thousands of Iranians rallied in support of their country's nuclear program.

Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told state-run TV that Iran would be entitled to put an end to unfettered inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency unless it changes its resolution on Iran at a November meeting. READ MORE

Last month, the U.N. agency passed a resolution warning Iran it would be referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions unless it allayed fears about its nuclear program.

``Definitely it would be the right of Iran to discontinue confidence-building measures, including (unfettered inspections), if the resolution is not amended at the next meeting of the IAEA,'' Mottaki said after visiting Gulf states Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates to drum up support for Iran's nuclear standoff with the West.

The United States accuses Iran of seeking to build nuclear weapons - a charge Iran denies. The IAEA has called on Iran to cease its uranium enrichment activities until such accusations have been conclusively refuted.

The IAEA chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, who along with his organization won the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, said he spoke about Iran with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Iran's nuclear program.

Describing his phone conversation with Rice, who called to congratulate him, ElBaradei said that they both ``agreed that we will have to continue to work together'' on issues including dispelling suspicions about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands of Iranians heeded government calls and held rallies across the country to back Iran's nuclear activities after attending Friday prayer services.

Demonstrators poured out of mosques in downtown Tehran chanting: ``Nuclear suspension is not possible anymore'' and ``Death to America.''

``The demonstrations have two messages; first that Iranian people know that their enemies thwart Iran of advancing and the second that Iran has to resist pressures,'' state-run TV said in a commentary.

Uranium enrichment does not violate the terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to which Iran is a signatory. But key IAEA members, including the U.S. and European nations, want Iran to permanently scrap enrichment plans as a confidence-building measure, something Tehran says it is not prepared to do.

Talks between Britain, Germany and France - which negotiated on behalf of the 25-nation European Union - and Iran collapsed in early August after Iran resumed uranium reprocessing activities at its Uranium Conversion Facility in Isfahan, in central Iran. Tehran had suspended uranium conversion work under a November 2004 deal with the European troika.

Which threat needs to be cracked down?

Farhad Mahdavi, Rooz Online:

Over the three-day weekend, residents of Tehran and its outer suburbs were witness to unannounced military exercises that involved the use of live munitions and firepower.

Observers are surprised by the three separate military maneuvers conducted by Basij militias, the army, and, the police forces in Tehran. The Basij exercise was called "Confrontation with Probable Threats" while the police operation was called a "Maneuver to Fight Civil Unrest".

Bajis militias gathered their forces, reportedly to be 5 thousand in number to stop, control and direct traffic in an area covering 11 square kilometers in west of Tehran under the pretext of bringing order to the streets and strengthening the morale of the Basij forces as a measure to prepare themselves to assist the government and police forces. ILNA labor news agency reported that the Basij operation was aimed at bringing order through the use of arms and weapons in order to maintain public order. READ MORE

Tehran’s newspapers reported on the operations in the different parts of the capital based on witness reports, calling them "anti-riot" exercises. The purpose of the maneuvers was to crackdown civil unrest in a hypothetical situation where protests had gotten out of control. Commanders explained that such operations are designed to confront potential civil unrest created by secret agitators. The commander of Tehran's special police forces was quoted saying that these Special Forces were ready to confront any kind of civil unrest in the country. “If protests are not controlled, they can lead to civil unrest,” Colonel Habibollah Jan-Nesar, the commander of the special unit of the police force said. According to him, this type of operation relies on the cooperation of the police, the various Basij volunteers, and the special trained task forces. He further elaborated on the riot-control and civil-disturbance control strategy in these terms. First warnings are issued to those disturbing civil order by the local police units. If the crowds do not heed and the unrest takes on a more violent form through the work of agitators, then special units are called in. If these forces too cannot disrupt the disturbances, then anti-riot forces are brought in and given full control of the situation. Their job is to confront the activists and agitators, and to bring back order to the streets.

Tehranis who normally go hiking in the northern hills on weekends, reported seeing Basij volunteers the night before the maneuvers began. The next day, residents of Karaj and Varamin, both suburbs of greater Tehran, were alarmed and shocked by the sound of tank and personnel carriers movements early in the morning. Telephones began to ring and people ran to the streets to find out what was going on. Then Kayhan newspaper published the first official news of the planned and organized exercises. It quoted commanders directly responsible for the operations. The conservative newspaper’s sources inside the government and security apparatus also enabled it to announce the end of the second phase of the operation the next day, while other newspapers remained in the dark. This was the first time that a military exercise was not pre-announced on national radio and television.

Residents of the suburbs reported that they heard the sound of heavy artillery, and deputy army commander General Kiyumars Heydari confirmed that the exercises were “supported by artillery and missile units of the army.” Another general Tala Ahmari officially announced the end of the second phase of the operation that included tactics to breakthrough barriers created by the hypothetical enemy forces in the streets. This part of the operations involved the use of real fire and munitions, according to him.

While the real motives and goals behind these heavy handed maneuvers that come at a time when the country faces serious international pressure and domestic divisions because of the recent political events, remains unknown, political observers have expressed dismay at the events which provide fertile ground for all kinds of speculations.