Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [6/18/06 - 6/24/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.

• Yahoo News reported that Iran accused the United States on Sunday of steering Europe away from a possible compromise on Tehran's disputed nuclear program.
• The New York Times reported that the success or failure of the international initiative to curb Iran's nuclear program hinges largely on an ostensibly clear-cut request: before talks can begin, Tehran must freeze all activities related to the enrichment of uranium. But the debate on what the freeze requires is centered on finding a definition that the Iranians and the six countries behind the initiative can accept.
• The Telegraph reported that the American spy who persuaded Libya to renounce its weapons of mass destruction is to return to the Central Intelligence Agency, where he will direct an aggressive drive to recruit informants inside Iran.
• The Washington Post reported on President Bush's most recent warning to Iran to accept the Perm-5 nuclear proposal just prior to his trip to the European Union for consultations this week.
• Reuters reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert held talks on Monday with three former Israeli premiers about Iran's nuclear program, signaling a drive for consensus on an issue.
• MosNews reported that U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone and agreed to close ranks on Iran.
• Bloomberg reported that President George W. Bush will seek to maintain western unity in the confrontation with Iran during a summit with European Union leaders Wednesday in Vienna.
• The Guardian reported that the EU's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, has made an unexpected private offer of last-minute talks to persuade the Iranian government to accept the west's nuclear package.
• Amir Taheri, Gulf News argued that talking about talks [this time with Iran] is an old tactic used whenever adversaries run out of ideas about their next move.
• Yahoo News reported that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his country will respond in mid-August to the package of incentives on its nuclear program offered by the West.
• Breitbart.com reported that President Bush accused Iran of dragging its feet saying that the mid-August timetable "seems like an awfully long time" to wait for an answer.
• Monsters & Critics reported that US President George W Bush and European Union leaders Wednesday sent a message of deepening transatlantic cooperation including a joint call for Iran to take a 'positive path' by suspending uranium enrichment.
• Spiegel Online reported that in an interview, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, said he sees improvement in the nuclear row with Iran.
• CNN News reported that the foreign ministers of Germany and Iran will meet in Berlin on Saturday, weeks before the expiry of a deadline for Iran to respond to an offer of incentives if it suspends nuclear enrichment.
• Rooz Online reported that the famed Iranian imprisoned journalist Akbar Ganji declared in Paris said, “There is absolutely no consensus on the nuclear issue in Iran and everything that is attributed to be ‘national’ in this regard is merely ideological propaganda.”
• The Guardian reported that Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said: "The nuclear issue is just a pretext. If it was not the nuclear matter, they would have come up with something else."
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said he would likely meet with Iran's nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani next week.
• People's Daily Online reported that China urged Iran to make early response to the EU's package proposal to resolve the nuclear issue.
• The Financial Times reported that Japan has told the US it is ready to freeze bank accounts held by Iran and its leadership in support of an America-led coalition preparing sanctions on Iran.
• Yahoo News reported, once again, that Iran is not considering a halt to its nuclear fuel program even after any negotiations with major powers.
• Reuters reported that India said a landmark nuclear deal with the United States should be based on the original commitments made by the two sides, sidestepping new moves to link the pact to its stand on Iran's atomic program.
• Rooz Online published several statements by Iranian leaders that Iran is attempting to buy time in not having responded to the Perm-5 nuclear proposal.
• The New York Times reported that late last year the White House told American intelligence agencies to evaluate the danger that the North Koreans might be tempted to sell their nuclear expertise — or a bomb's worth of plutonium — to the Iranians.
• Independent Online reported that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier reminded Iran that it must halt nuclear enrichment if it wanted to begin negotiations with six world powers.
• Peoples Daily Online reported that Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul will pay a visit to Iran to facilitate the peaceful solution to Iran's nuclear issue.
  

Tehran's bloody Prosecutor lectures the West on human rights to the UN's Human Rights body.

• SMCCDI reported that Tehran's infamous Prosecutor General "Saeed Mortazavi" is currently the guest of the newly formed UN Human Rights body in Switzerland.
• IRIB News reported that Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi said that Iran is concerned over the violations of human rights in the West.
• Canada.com reported that the Iranian prosecutor implicated in the death of Montreal photojournalist Zahra Kazemi is part of a delegation at a new UN human rights body. Human rights organizations immediately condemned his presence. A must read.
• Mehr.org produced a petition to protest the legitimization of Islamic Regime by the United Nations new human rights commission.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that Iran's delegation to the U.N. Human Rights Council faces being isolated by the envoys of free nations this week after it emerged that its leader, Saeed Mortazavi, is one of Iran's most notorious censors and prosecutors of dissidents.
• CTVNews reported that Canada Prime Minister Stephen Harper demanded Saeed Mortazavi be arrested before he leaves Germany, after Iran sent the infamous Mortazavi to the new UN Human rights Council.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that the State Department said Iran showed a lack of concern for basic human rights by appointing a known rights violator to its delegation at a meeting of the U.N. Human Rights Council.
• OpenDemocracy reported that Iran also sent another infamous human rights abuser to the UN Human Rights Council: justice minister Jamal Karimirad.
  

Iran at the World Cup: Cheers, Tears and Protests.

• BBC News reported that a far-right rally planned to coincide with Wednesday's Iran-Angola World Cup match in Leipzig is not going ahead, at least not legally.
• Reuters reported that Iran's governmental Physical Education Organization sacked the head of the football federation after Iran's World Cup campaign ended once again at the first round, saying they apologized "to the Iranian nation for its wounded pride."
• Monsters & Critics reported that while the Iranian national football team returned to Tehran in the early hours of Saturday, the 'scapegoats' for the Iranian defeat preferred to stay abroad.
  

Iran's leaders latest statements.

• Rooz Online reported that the intelligence minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran claimed the recent unrest in Iran was directed from outside the country and announced that they are pursuing this aggressive goal through a gradual overthrow” of the regime.
• MEMRI published excerpts from an interview with Iranian Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai who said: "America is like a paper tiger." A video.
  

Iranian Dissidents.

• Rooz Online reported that Akbar Ganji, the imprisoned Iranian journalist who was released last month and who is currently on a European trip said that there is absolutely no possibility to reform the Iranian system under its legal structure. "I agree with civil disobedience. This is a method that is used all over the world. But in Iran civil disobedience bears a very high price. We need the spiritual support of Europe and the world."
• Rooz Online reported that after the arrest of two student activists from Amir Kabir University which has led to student protests and sit-ins, intelligence agencies of Iran are planning harsher treatment of students.
• Rooz Online reported that with the increase in pressure on the regime's critics and the growing detentions in recent months, many fear the return of the old television confessions.
• Radio Free Europe reported that leading Iranian women's rights activists have been charged with acting "against national security" by calling for an "illegal" gathering to promote equal rights and publishing related statements.
• Rooz Online reported that the famed Iranian imprisoned journalist Akbar Ganji declared in Paris said, “There is absolutely no consensus on the nuclear issue in Iran and everything that is attributed to be ‘national’ in this regard is merely ideological propaganda.”
  

Iranian leaderships unity weakening?

• Radio Free Europe reported that with the recent purge of Iran's diplomatic corps, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman said should the new ambassadors and the Foreign Ministry stumble, the IRGC is ready to fill the vacuum.
• Abbas Milani, The Washington Post reported that despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insistence that there are no fissures in the Iranian regime, something is clearly rotten in the state of Iran. They discuss the four main factions struggling for control in the Islamic republic.
• The Guardian reported that Rafsanjani is preparing a quixotic final bid for political power - with backing from some surprising quarters. If he succeeds he will be in prime position to become Iran's next Supreme Leader. But some factions consider Rafsanjani a traitor to the Iranian revolution.
  

More troublemaking by the Iranian regime.

• Middle East Newsline reported that the Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar said.
• DEBKAfile reported that Iran has offered to deploy Revolutionary Guards on the Golan border with Israel by the end of summer.
  

Human Rights and Freedom of the Press in Iran.

• BBC News reported that forty professors and lecturers from Tehran University in Iran are being retired on Thursday. The move is causing concern that the new government of President Ahmadinejad is purging professors.
• CNET News reported that internet web surfers frustrated by government censorship in search engines are increasingly turning to a little-known Internet browser with a big following, Maxthon.
• Reuters reported that Human Rights Watch said that Iran's judiciary should rescind the death sentences of at least 10 Iranians of Arab origin convicted of plotting against the state, and retry them before courts that meet international fair trial standards.
  

Iran's Oil Weapon.

• Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United States said world oil prices could triple if the diplomatic standoff over Iran's nuclear program escalates into a military conflict.
  

The Iranian Economy.

• Mos News reported that Ahmadinejad offered Russia greater cooperation in the exploration and extraction of liquefied gas, promising to “cooperate closely” in determining the price of gas.
• Rooz Online reported that the Iranian government’s plans to begin gasoline rationing in less than two months is expected to add fuel to the rising costs.
• Forbes reported that a senior oil official said Iran will not sell gas at knock-down rates to India and Pakistan, amid a pricing dispute in talks over a planned pipeline.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that many people in Iran fear that Mr. Ahmadinejad could be stoking runaway inflation. Moreover, he has created soaring expectations, particularly among Iran's agricultural and working poor, that could be hard to meet.
  

Support for Internal Regime Change in Iran?

• Rooz Online reported on the frustration of Iranian dissidents that the Western media has not done more to report on the recent pro-democracy and women's rights demonstrations in Tehran, saying it has received less coverage and importance than president Ahmadinejad’s decision last month allowing women to participate in public sporting events at stadiums.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that one of Mr. Bush's staunchest intellectual supporters (former Soviet dissident) Natan Sharansky, said: "We need to understand the [Iranian] opposition are our real allies and not repeat the mistakes of the Clinton administration."
• Voice of America reported that Iranians in 'Tehrangeles.' are making sure their opinions about the future of Iran are heard loud and clear.
• Inter Press Service reported that in a little-noticed section of the administration's official national security strategy indicates that Bush has already decided that he will not use military force to try to prevent Iran from going nuclear but will seek an internal regime change.
• The Washington Times reported that while for decades, Iranian opposition groups overseas have agreed on almost nothing, they are now uniting.
• Voice of America reported that in a recent speech, President George W. Bush called on the Iranian government to accept the proposal and said: "The people of Iran, like people everywhere, also want and deserve an opportunity to determine their own future."
  

Iran and Iraq.

• Reuters reported that while Iran is now rejecting US/Iran talks on Iraq, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), a key Shi'ite Muslim party closely allied to Iran, said direct talks between the US and Iran could benefit both Tehran and Baghdad.
• Mehran Riazaty reported that Abdul Aziz al-Hakim visited the holy shrine of the founder of Islamic Revolution on Friday night to pay tribute to the late Imam Khomeini by laying a wreath on his tomb.
• Reuters reported that Iraq's new oil minister accused Iranian coastguards of protecting smugglers.
• Mehran Riazaty reported that the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime said that the present security problems in Iraq may only be solved through withdrawal of the occupation army (i.e. US).
• Los Angeles Times reported that Army Gen. George W. Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, accused the Iranian government of training, equipping and directing Shiite Muslim insurgents operating in Iraq, the most specific leveled against the government in Tehran by a senior U.S. military commander.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported on the discovery of more than 500 chemical weapons shells in Iraq has heightened concerns at the Pentagon that terrorists in that country could use the old munitions against American soldiers.
• Mehran Riazaty reported on the conflicting statements by Iranian officials on the conditions in Iraq.
  

Iran and the International community.

• Los Angeles Times reported that the VenIran low-rise tractor factory in remote eastern Venezuela is one of the signs of Iran's growing presence in Venezuela which is being monitored by a U.S. government on alert for any evidence that Iran may be exporting terrorism.
  

US Government on Iran.

• Reuters reported that the Bush administration urged Congress not to tighten U.S. sanctions against foreign firms investing in Iran's oil and gas sectors, arguing it could damage the current major-power diplomatic initiative with Tehran.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that a Treasury official said the U.S. government will use "all instruments of national power," to combat Iran's sponsorship of terrorism.
  

Must Read reports.

• Middle East Report Online published a historical analysis of the Iranian women's movement. An interesting read.
• Jonathan Paris, Prospectives explains how Iranian President Ahmadinejad is seeking to galvanize Muslims throughout the world behind a radical vision of puritanical Islam that rejects the liberal democratic model to become the next "Nasser" of the Islamic world.
• Peter Brooks, New York Post argues that given that the United States has given Pakistan $700 million a year in aid, Islamabad should be pressed to give us access to A.Q. Khan - the only outsider with insider knowledge of Tehran's nuclear program.
• The Wall Street Journal reported on the division inside of Iran between the Iran/Iraq war revolutionaries and the Iranian youth.
• Richard Miniter & Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, The Weekly Standard reported that nearly every major media outlet has fallen for at least one of the three major myths concerning Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that Nobel peace laureate Elie Wiesel said his family might have escaped death under Hitler had they listened to the warnings of what was coming back in 1942. He feels compelled to warn the world about what is coming with Ahmadinejad.
• FOX News reported that a growing chorus of Bush's critics on the right wants a tougher U.S. approach to Iran.
• Daveed Gartenstein-Ross & Adam White, The Weekly Standard reviewed the circumstances behind the administration's decision not to kill Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2002.
• CNET News reported that internet web surfers frustrated by government censorship in search engines are increasingly turning to a little-known Internet browser with a big following, Maxthon.
• The New York Times reported on the Iranian and Syrian governments, and their people, are tightening relations on several fronts as power in the region shifts away from the once dominant Sunni to Shiites, led by Iran. But it is creating concerns inside Syria.
  

The Experts.

• Kenneth R. Timmerman, The Washington Times explains why the recent US decision to join talks with Iran is a slippery slope and why the US should be supporting the Iranian opposition.
• Amir Taheri, Gulf News argued that talking about talks [this time with Iran] is an old tactic used whenever adversaries run out of ideas about their next move.
• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online reported that some day we will be forced to deal fully with the war we are in, and when that happens we’re going to discover a lot of very nasty problems about the future of America. Maybe we’d tackle the tough issues if we got that we’re at war.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat asked: Interested in big power games? If yes, reserve a balcony seat to watch a new version of “The Great Game” taking shape in western and central Asia, in which Iran is emerging as an important player.
• Louis J. Freeh (former FBI Director), The Wall Street Journal reminds us of the evidence gathered that Iran was responsible for the Khobar Tower bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 and the Clinton administration's pitiful response.
• The Washington Post reported that Henry Kissinger said: "Iran has to take a decision whether it wants to be a nation or a cause," Kissinger explained. "If a nation, it must realize that its national interest doesn't conflict with ours."
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• Cox & Forkum published a cartoon: Forked Tongue.
• Alan Peters, AntiMullah.com found a cartoon video of the other World Cup games. Humor.
• MEMRI published excerpts from an interview with Iranian Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai who said: "America is like a paper tiger." A video.

The Quote of the Week.

Rooz Online reported that the famed Iranian imprisoned journalist Akbar Ganji declared in Paris said,

“There is absolutely no consensus on the nuclear issue in Iran and everything that is attributed to be ‘national’ in this regard is merely ideological propaganda.”

Tags: iran, news, iraq, nuclear, military,

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 6.25.2006:

The fissures in the Iranian regime increase.

• Abbas Milani, The Washington Post reported that despite Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insistence that there are no fissures in the Iranian regime, something is clearly rotten in the state of Iran. They discuss the four main factions struggling for control in the Islamic republic.
• The Guardian reported that Rafsanjani is preparing a quixotic final bid for political power - with backing from some surprising quarters. If he succeeds he will be in prime position to become Iran's next Supreme Leader. But some factions consider Rafsanjani a traitor to the Iranian revolution.
  

Washington is concerned North Korea may sell Iran the bomb.

• The New York Times reported that late last year the White House told American intelligence agencies to evaluate the danger that the North Koreans might be tempted to sell their nuclear expertise — or a bomb's worth of plutonium — to the Iranians.

The US prepares to sever Iran's financial support for terrorist activities.

• Dow Jones Newswires reported that a Treasury official said the U.S. government will use "all instruments of national power," to combat Iran's sponsorship of terrorism.

Germany: We can talk if Iran stops enrichment.

• Independent Online reported that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier reminded Iran that it must halt nuclear enrichment if it wanted to begin negotiations with six world powers.

Kissinger asks "is Iran a nation or a cause?"

• The Washington Post reported that Henry Kissinger said: "Iran has to take a decision whether it wants to be a nation or a cause," Kissinger explained. "If a nation, it must realize that its national interest doesn't conflict with ours."

While Iran and Syria increase ties, Syrians are concerned.

• The New York Times reported on the Iranian and Syrian governments, and their people, are tightening relations on several fronts as power in the region shifts away from the once dominant Sunni to Shiites, led by Iran. But it is creating concerns inside Syria.

Iranian officials can't decide if the US is interested in a united, powerful, and integrated Iraq.

• Mehran Riazaty reported on the conflicting statements by Iranian officials on the conditions in Iraq.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Los Angeles Times reported that the VenIran low-rise tractor factory in remote eastern Venezuela is one of the signs of Iran's growing presence in Venezuela which is being monitored by a U.S. government on alert for any evidence that Iran may be exporting terrorism.
• Peoples Daily Online reported that Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul will pay a visit to Iran to facilitate the peaceful solution to Iran's nuclear issue.
• Monsters & Critics reported that while the Iranian national football team returned to Tehran in the early hours of Saturday, the 'scapegoats' for the Iranian defeat preferred to stay abroad.
• Alan Peters, AntiMullah.com found a cartoon video of the other World Cup games. Humor.

Tags: iran, news, iraq, nuclear, military,

Turkish FM to visit Iran for peaceful nuke solution

Peoples Daily Online:

Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul will pay a visit to Iran on Saturday to facilitate the peaceful solution to Iran's nuclear issue, the semi-official Anatolia news agency reported Friday.

Gul would relay a message from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Tehran, aimed at getting Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment activities, Turkish diplomatic sources was quoted as saying. READ MORE

During his visit, Gul would meet with Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani and former president Hashimi Rafsanjani, according to the sources.

It would be an important visit, Gul said, adding that efforts would be underway to contribute to the peaceful solution of the problem pertaining to Iran's nuclear program.

Tehran is studying an international package of incentives made by five permanent members of the United Nation Security Council plus Germany and has yet to formally respond to the offer.

The offer, details of which have not been made public, was presented to Iran by European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Tuesday that his country is ready to enter talks with European countries without any preconditions.

President Ahmadinejad revealed Wednesday that Iran would formally respond to the six-nation package to resolve the nuclear dispute in mid-August.

Asefi: the United States is not interested in a united, powerful and integrated Iraq

Mehran Riazaty: Iran Analyst

On Saturday, the Iranian Republic News Agency reported Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi rejected allegations made by certain American officials that the Islamic Republic of Iran is of interfering in Iraqi internal affairs. He added that the allegations were part of the U.S. propaganda against Iran and the U.S. authorities' attempt to conceal their weaknesses and justify their failures in Iraq. He expressed regret that Washington, in order to justify its occupation of Iraq and the inexcusable presence of its forces in the region, was paving the way for the emergence of a weak and disintegrated Iraq. Asefi noted that the United States presence in the region is against the will of regional nations and has been strongly opposed all over the world, even by its own citizen. He went on to say that unlike the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran is interested in a united, powerful and integrated Iraq in the region.

Analyst Comment: On May 18, 06, the Iranian Republic News Agency reported that Ali Akbar Velayati, former Iran’s Foreign Minister for about 16 years, and current advisor in International Affairs to the Supreme Leader Ayattolah Khameni, said at this time our friends are in charge of government in Iraq and Afghanistan. Velayati added that the unification of Iraq is in interest of the United States, but if their supports for the Iraqi Kurds increase, they will have problems with Turkey.

Whom we have to believe: Asefi, who said that the United States is not interested in a united, powerful, and integrated Iraq, or Ayatollah Khamenei’s foreign advisor, Ali Akbar Velayati, who said that the unification of Iraq is in interest of the United States? READ MORE

Two different statements which made by Asefi and Velayati, indicate that the Iranian officials are either a good political game players, or they have no concrete view on same issue. The main question is then how anyone could trust what the Iranian officials are saying about any issue, especially on Iran’s nuclear activities.

Mehran Riazaty: a former Iran analyst for the Central Command of the Coalition Forces in Baghdad.

Tags: iran, news,

Voice of Ambition

Robert Tait, The Guardian:

Exactly a year ago today, the political career of Iran's wiliest political grandee, Hashemi Rafsanjani, appeared at an end, obliterated by the crushing populist tidal wave that swept Mahout Ahmadinejad to the presidency. Yet 12 months on from that crushing presidential election defeat and with Ahmadinejad and his powerful fundamentalist allies riding high, Rafsanjani is preparing a quixotic final bid for political power - with backing from some surprising quarters.

Marginalised in the hardline religious zeitgeist that has accompanied Ahmadinejad's rise, the pragmatic Rafsanjani has set his sights on becoming speaker of the Assembly of Experts, an 86-member body which is most important because of its role in choosing Iran's supreme leader, the Islamic regime's most powerful position.

If he succeeds, Rafsanjani, 72, a former president whose personal reputation has been sullied by rumours of vast (and illicit) wealth accumulated since the revolution, would be in prime position to become supreme leader himself when the post is vacated by the current incumbent, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. READ MORE

With such high stakes, October's elections for the Assembly promise to turn into a bloody, bruising battle for the Islamic Republic's soul.

For Rafsanjani's aspirations represent a red flag to Ahmadinejad and his ultra-conservative supporters. The former president's support for a deal with America over Iran's nuclear programme and his free-market economic policies are anathema to the current government, which advocates showing the West no quarter while pursuing a course of budget-busting state handouts in the face of repeated warnings of future economic problems.

Accordingly, Rafsanjani's power bid is setting him up for a showdown with Ayatollah Mohammed Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, an arch-fundamentalist and mentor of President Amadinejad.

Mesbah-Yazdi, who is believed to covet the supreme leader's job himself, has been assiduously mobilising support among hardline clerics in his quest for the Assembly's speakership.

"Hardliners and radicals who are opposed to Mr Rafsanjani's moderate stances, notably vis-à-vis the West and his open-door, laissez-faire economic policy, are very much against his candidacy to the Expert's Assembly," said Dr Sadegh Zibakalam, a political analyst at Tehran University. "If Rafsanjani were elected, it is not unfeasible or unlikely that he could become supreme leader himself if something were to happen to Ayatollah Khamenei. The hardliners want to discredit him and do whatever it takes to prevent him becoming a nominee and a member of the Expert's Assembly."

This took a vitriolic form this month when Rafsanjani was forced to abandon a televised speech in the holy city of Qom - the base of Iran's religious establishment - after being heckled by Mesbah-Yazdi supporters. In a crushing insult to one of the pillars of the 1979 Islamic revolutionary generation, Rafsanjani was loudly denounced as an "appeaser" and "counter-revolutionary". The hecklers, most of whom wore clerical dress, were arrested but later released without charge. The attack was widely seen as a blatant attempt to intimidate the former president into abandoning his ambitions. Rafsanjani, who appeared shaken by the abuse, subsequently cancelled his public engagements and has since declined interview requests.

Far from signalling a retreat from the stage, however, the Qom humiliation has prompted a startling new alliance of convenience in which Iran's now largely eclipsed reformist movement is backing Rafsanjani's - as yet formally unannounced - Expert's Assembly campaign. It is an extraordinary switch of loyalties on the part of a political grouping which once viewed Rafsanjani as an object of scorn. The extent of his rehabilitation within liberal circles was amply demonstrated in the extensive coverage given to his ordeal by the few reformist newspapers still allowed to publish.

Triggering it is the alarm with which reformists view the prospect of a Mesbah-Yazdi-led Expert's Assembly. Leading reformists commonly dismiss President Ahmadinejad as a hardliners' "mouthpiece" and an insult to the nation whose election represented a silent military coup rather than an expression of democracy.

As the products of an educated urban elite who disdain Ahmadinejad's populism, the reformists see a mortal threat in Mesbah-Yazdi's much-publicised advocacy of violence against political opponents. They also fear his closeness to the intelligence community, which has in the past been implicated in the murders of political dissidents. Equally unnerving was the description last month in a magazine published by Mesbah-Yazdi of Rafsanjani, along with the reformist former president, Mohammed Khatami, and the former chief nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, as "traitors to Islam and Iran" who should be disqualified from office.

With Ayatollah Khamenei now squarely in their camp, controlling the expert's assembly would effectively put all the major state bodies in the hardliners' hands, having already captured the presidency and the parliament.

For reformers and liberals that prospect represents a picture of unleavened political adversity. And out of it they are praying for the resurrection of a political career whose obituaries they were once all too happy to write.

We Can Talk if Iran Stop Enrichment

Independent Online:

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier reminded Iran on Saturday that it must halt nuclear enrichment if it wanted to begin negotiations with six world powers on an offer of incentives made to Tehran.

"I can only reiterate and urge Iran to implement very quickly a suspension of enrichment to enable negotiations to begin," he told reporters in Berlin after a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. READ MORE

Mottaki, however, appeared to reject any demand that it temporarily stop enrichment - a process of purifying uranium for use in nuclear power plants or weapons - saying Iran did not want any conditions to be imposed on the start of talks.

"We welcome negotiations without pre-conditions," he said.

Mottaki described his talks with Steinmeier as constructive but reiterated that the offer of incentives delivered to Iran earlier this month by European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana had some ambiguities as well as good elements.

"The packaged offer by the six countries is being very seriously examined by Iran. We see very positive points in this offer. There are also naturally unclear points and we will have questions," he said.

Solana will meet Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in the near future and Steinmeier said he hoped Solana would be able to answer all of the Iranians' questions about the offer.

The United States, Britain, Germany and France, - have made it clear they want an answer from Iran by the July 15-17 summit of the Group of Eight (G8) industrial nations in St Petersburg, Russia.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said last week Iran would give its answer by August 22, prompting US President George Bush to complain that Iran was dragging its feet.

Mottaki gave no indication of when Tehran would formally respond to the offer.

"Immediately after we have examined the offer we will inform our European partners of the result," he said.

Inside Iran's Fractured Regime

Abbas Milani and Michael McFaul, The Washington Post:

For weeks, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has insisted that there are no fissures in the Iranian regime. Any allegations of such tensions are simply part of a U.S. propaganda war against Tehran, he declared. But then last Monday, at what was billed as a "unity lunch," Khamenei asked 28 of the country's most powerful leaders -- mostly mullahs -- to put aside their differences and coalesce around a s ingle cause: preserving the system.

Something is clearly rotten in the state of Iran, and effective U.S. policy can be based only on a clear understanding of the competing factions, intense rivalries and shifting balance of power in the regime. Today, there are four main factions struggling for control in the Islamic republic: READ MORE

The Revolutionary Guard and the Basij.

Since the regime is deeply isolated from -- if not despised by -- the people of Iran, the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij, a paramilitary force within the Guard corps, are key, along with the intelligence agencies, to its survival. Recently, these groups -- the regime's "muscle" -- have attempted to expand their power. They achieved this in the parliamentary elections of 2005, when more than 100 officers found their way to seats in the Majlis.

But their most crucial power grab was the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president later that year. As one Guard commander, now an influential member of the cabinet, said, the Ahmadinejad presidency was not an accident, but the result of two years of multilayered, sophisticated strategy. The predominance of the Revolutionary Guard in the new administration -- among governors, ministers and undersecretaries of the cabinet and in the diplomatic corps -- is a clear indication of the Guard's newfound power.

The Guard is now a veritable state within the state; it has its own intelligence agency and prisons, three universities where it dispenses doctoral degrees in "strategic studies" and its own think tanks. It even has its own ports of entry to bring in commodities without paying any tariffs.

Recently, Tehran newspapers announced that a no-bid contract for more than $1 billion for the construction of gas and oil pipelines would go to a company operated by the Guard. The same company had won a multibillion-dollar contract to expand Tehran's subway system. Around the same time, another paper reported that $6 billion in oil revenue had disappeared from accounts controlled by the Guard.

The supreme leader and his followers.

Unelected and unanswerable to the people, the supreme leader is by law given a disproportionate and despotic share of power. When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini held the office, his religious authority, personal charisma and self-assertive style limited the power of competing centers. But Khamenei has none of the assets of his predecessor. He was appointed to the post in 1989 only after the constitution was changed to allow the junior cleric to assume absolute power.

Khamenei has had to keep the various factions both happy and in competition so that no one group becomes powerful enough to dominate the others or to obviate his own position. In this effort, he is relying increasingly on his son, a small coterie of aides and the parliamentary speaker, Hadad Adel, a relative by marriage.

In the last presidential election, Khamenei helped arrange Ahmadinejad's victory, hoping to head off the challenge by former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who had hinted that he would curtail the powers of the supreme leader if elected. Khamenei was said to be looking for a "chief of staff," but he got more than he bargained for, not only because the new president has been serious about his populism but because of Ahmadinejad's support from the Guard.

Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi and his followers.

This cantankerous ayatollah, who counts Ahmadinejad among his spiritual followers, controls at least three "research centers" and a seminary in the city of Qom, Iran's theological center. He is unabashed in his defense of despotism. He declares that democracy is incompatible with an Islamic government, in which legitimacy is divinely bestowed, and the people are "only aids to the ruler" and not the source of his authority.

Despite a cloudy past, he has a considerable following among the Guard and is clearly being groomed as a possible successor to Khamenei. This fall's elections for the Assembly of Experts -- clergy who choose the supreme leader -- have become the locus of conflict among the various warring factions. The clergy are already skirmishing openly over who may run for the assembly and who may vet the candidate list.

The "realists."

A considerable number of current and former high-ranking officials -- including former heads of the intelligence agencies, former president Mohammad Khatami and Iran's lead nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani -- believe that the Islamic republic must take a more conciliatory attitude toward the West and try to reach an accord. Some in this group have even advocated a halt to the uranium enrichment program. According to Akbar Ganji, Iran's leading dissident, even Rafsanjani has recently advocated this view. This group should not be labeled "moderates" or "reformers," but they see Ahmadinejad's policies as a threat to both Iran's and their own personal interests.

Negotiating with such a fractured regime will be a delicate balancing act. The United States is handicapped in its ability to appraise the Iranian situation by having no embassy in Tehran, as well as by a lack of domestic experts. Policymakers have relied instead on the views of the viscerally anti-regime exile community, whose perspective happens to fit nicely with the disposition of many in the administration.

But it is critical for the United States to recognize that none of the ruling Iranian factions seems keen on confrontation. The real fight is over who will get the credit for normalizing ties with Washington -- and thus augment their power.

More crucially, the administration must be uncompromising in its support for Iranian democrats. The regime is trying to sell the Iranian people the idea that the United States, like Europe in the past and China and Russia today, is willing to sacrifice their democratic aspirations. Washington must combine direct negotiations -- admittedly long overdue -- with an unambiguous message to the people of Iran that the United States is not ready to legitimize a system in which only the select few hold power.

amilani@stanford.edu

mcfaul@hoover.stanford.edu

Abbas Milani is director of Iranian studies at Stanford University and co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution with Michael McFaul, who teaches political science at Stanford.

Wary of U.S., Syria and Iran Strengthen Ties

Michael Slackman, The New York Times:

For a long time, the top-selling poster in Hassan al-Sheikh's gift shop here showed President Bashar al-Assad of Syria seated beside the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon. A few weeks ago a slightly different poster overtook it, this one with the Syrian president, the Hezbollah leader and Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mr. Sheikh's shop is on a bustling street in Sayeda Zeinab beside the entrance to a Shiite shrine that shares a name with the city, and both have been packed with Iranian pilgrims, many more than in years past.

Those changes illustrate what may well be a worrying phenomenon for Washington as it seeks to contain Iran and isolate Syria: the two governments, and their people, are tightening relations on several fronts as power in the region shifts away from the once dominant Sunni to Shiites, led by Iran. READ MORE

This is, in part, the result of the American installation of a Shiite-dominated government in Iraq after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and his Sunni-led government. But it is also spurred by the growing belief in Arab capitals that the Bush administration may soon negotiate a deal with Tehran over Iraq and nuclear weapons.

Arab governments once hostile to Iran have begun to soften their public posture after decades of animosity toward Tehran. President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt met Iran's national security chief, Ali Larijani, in Cairo recently, and Saudi Arabia's foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, visited Tehran this month and declared the two nations to be good friends. In addition, Iranian officials recently sent messages of friendship to every Persian Gulf state.

Amid all that activity, Syria has managed to inflate its power in the region by playing a subtle double game and setting itself up as a possible go-between.

On one hand, it is offering Iran the chance to develop a strong and unified crescent of influence extending from Syria to the Palestinian territories, now led by Hamas, a Syrian and Iranian ally. On the other, Syria, which has a secular-oriented government but is made up of different religious sects and ethnic groups, has held itself out as an important player in the Sunni effort to limit the spread of Shiite influence. That has helped it with Arab countries and has attracted investment from the around the gulf, diplomats and political analysts in Syria said.

"Syria will work to use its role as a pivotal point to get the most from both the Arabs and Iranians," said Ayman Abdel Nour, a political analyst and Baath Party member who has pushed for more political freedoms.

Syria's strategy has helped it win crucial support at a time when it is cut off from the United States and Europe. But political analysts and government officials say it is also a risky strategy, one that could weaken Syria if Iran cuts a deal with the West over its nuclear program — and abandons its ally in Damascus.

"Syrian officials are worried about America making a deal with Iran," said Marwan Kabalan, a political science professor at Damascus University. "Syrians fear that Iranians will use them as a card to buy something from America."

At the same time, Iran's efforts to bolster Shiism in parts of Syria come as the government here is confronted by the rise of radical Islamic ideas that many say are being exported from the gulf region. Though relations with Iran are widely perceived as a political alliance rather than a religious one, the confluence of the two forces could aggravate sectarian rivalries. Tensions among Syria's many religious and ethic groups burn so hot beneath the surface of the society that newspapers are forbidden from identifying sects even when reporting on Iraq.

Syria and Iran began establishing closer ties more than two decades ago, but the real strides have been recent.

Syria has signed expanded military and economic agreements with Tehran covering everything from telecommunications projects to higher education. Syria will buy missiles from Iran. Iran will build cement and car plants in Syria.

At the same time, Arab nations that have been cool to Syria are now reaching out to it. Syria received the king of Bahrain this month, he met Thursday with Mr. Mubarak, and this week President Assad held a telephone conference with King Abdullah II of Jordan. Relations between Amman and Damascus became strained when Jordanian officials accused Syria of allowing Hamas to smuggle weapons across Syrian territory and into Jordan — charges Syria has denied.

"Iran injected Syria with a lot of confidence: stand up, show defiance," said Sami Moubayed, a political analyst and writer in Damascus. "Iran is giving them advice. This is certain."

European diplomats here said that Syria's turn away from the West — and toward Iran and other Eastern countries — had also been part of a domestic power struggle between two forces within the government. Those who favored at least trying to keep a foot in the door with Europe have been silenced, and those seeking to shift Syria toward the East have been empowered, said the diplomats who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid aggravating tensions between their governments and Damascus.

When Hafez al-Assad, the former Syrian president, forged ties with Iran decades ago, his government had the upper hand. Iran had recently gone through a revolution that ousted the shah and installed a religious system that was only just finding its footing. Then Saddam Hussein's military invaded, and Iran was grateful that with Syria's support, Mr. Hussein was unable to define his war as a battle of Arabs versus Persians, Shiites versus Sunnis.

While Syria offered Iran strategic support, Iran repaid Syria with economic aid like cheap oil. At the same time, the two shared an interest in building up Hezbollah, the militia group considered a terrorist organization by the United States and a resistance force by the Lebanese.

Today the relationship is fundamentally different, with Iran holding the dominant position as its strength in the region, and the world, is elevated and Syria's is compromised. "Iran in the last few years became stronger and Syria became weaker," said Dr. Samir al-Taqi, a health adviser to the Syrian government and the director of a research institute focused on international affairs. "Now everyone is asking what Iran will do if it cuts a deal with America?"

Iran's ambassador to Syria, Muhammad Hassan Akhtari, who served as chief of staff for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, for seven years, said in an interview that Syrians had been assured that Iran would not accept any compromise with the West if it was "against the interest of Syria."

He also said that over the past 27 years, since the earliest days of the revolution, Iran had the opportunity to make a deal and "did not sell out its friends."

"Now that Iran is stronger," he added, "why would it sell out its friends, and sell out Syria?"

The risks also involve domestic affairs as Syria struggles against an increase in religious identification, particularly among Sunnis, and signs that the most radical interpretations of Islam have spread in Syria. The government recently reported killing a small group of Islamic terrorists planning to attack a government building in the center of Damascus.

All of this could present a challenge for a government that is controlled by a religious minority — the Alawites — and a political party that identifies itself as secular, the Baath Party.

"Our situation is so difficult now in the Islamic street," said Muhammad Habash, a Syrian lawmaker and the director of the liberal-leaning Islamic Studies Center in Damascus. "Foreign influences, by which I mean mainly Saudi influences, or Wahhabi influences, are creating dangerous discussions in this region."

Those forces promote the idea that Shiites are not proper Muslims — and in some cases declare them to be apostates.

For the moment, though, many people say that Iran's opposition to the West and its long ties to Syria generally have broad support here.

"The three are practically the only ones challenging the United States," said the shopkeeper selling posters of Mr. Ahmadinejad, Mr. Assad and the leader of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah. "That's why we put them in a picture together. They are the only ones who say no."

But the influx of religious pilgrims in Syria — some estimates exceed a million a year — and the Iranian investment in Shiite shrines in the north, could increase tensions.

Still, the prospect of inflaming sectarian tensions is, for now, a distant threat compared with the immediate benefits of Syria's Iran policy.

"At the beginning of his term, the president tried to make contacts with the Western world," said Intisar Junis, a Syrian television anchor. "I can't imagine that he is a real friend to Iran, but now he has no choice. Europe and the U.S. forced his choice; they closed all the other doors to him."

Katherine Zoepf contributed reporting from Damascus, Syria, for this article.

Talk Boldly with Iran

David Ignatius, The Washington Post:

Sometime in the next several months, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice or a senior colleague is likely to sit down at a negotiating table with representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran. As she prepares for these meetings, I suspect Rice is reviewing the most famous instance of America talking to an enemy: Henry Kissinger's secret opening to China in the early 1970s.

A new window has just opened on Kissinger's secret diplomacy with the National Security Archive's publication of the eyes-only memoranda summarizing some of his most sensitive discussions. Reading these transcripts is a reminder that Kissinger's diplomacy was, to use a modern expression, "outside of the box."

As a diplomatic emissary, Kissinger was almost recklessly frank -- gossiping, teasing, wheedling, flattering. In a June 1972 meeting with Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, Kissinger described Senate Democratic leader Mike Mansfield as "monastic," Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern as "professorial" and his own foreign policy bureaucracy as "pro-Soviet." Even the wily Zhou was obviously charmed by Kissinger's seeming willingness to broach any subject. It conveyed the useful sense that in the U.S.-China opening, nothing was off-limits. He told Zhou at one point: "We achieve secrecy by saying so much that no one knows what is true."

Running through Kissinger's discussions was the same fundamental tenet of foreign policy realism: Rational nations act in their self-interest. Their diplomacy is driven not by emotion or abstract moral principle or past practice but by the bedrock of mutual interest. In his discussion with Zhou, for example, Kissinger was startlingly frank about America's willingness to subordinate Vietnam: "We believe that the future of our relationship with Peking is infinitely more important for the future of Asia than what happens in Phnom Penh, in Hanoi or in Saigon."

I asked Kissinger this week what lessons he would draw for the new U.S. engagement with Iran from his own diplomatic experience. Kissinger said he didn't want to give public advice to Rice, but he said that as a general proposition, the United States should seek to find common security interests with Iran -- stressing that a strong and prosperous Iran doesn't threaten the United States so long as the Iranians refrain from reckless and destabilizing actions.

"Iran has to take a decision whether it wants to be a nation or a cause," Kissinger explained. "If a nation, it must realize that its national interest doesn't conflict with ours. If the Iranian concern is security and development of their country, this is compatible with American interests." If Iran connected with the global economy, he argued, it could soon become a regional economic powerhouse, comparable to South Korea. READ MORE

Kissinger noted that America's good relations with Iran while he was secretary of state during the early 1970s were based on U.S. national interest rather than on the personality of the shah or the domestic political system in Iran. "There is no rational reason why America should be a threat to the national security of Iran," he said. "It is in our interest to have a stable country and a prosperous country. If it went in the direction of South Korea, that would be in our interest." But he cautioned: "If the Iranian interest is to destabilize the region, then it will be difficult to come to an agreement."

On the nuclear issue at the heart of the U.S.-Iran dialogue, Kissinger argued that the Iranians must recognize that nuclear proliferation threatens their own security as much as that of the United States or Israel. Wherever the nonproliferation line is drawn, it will seem unfair to countries that don't yet have the bomb, he said. "But if the process isn't stopped, it threatens every country, including the proliferators."

Thinking about Kissinger's opening to China, it seems to me that one clear lesson for the Bush administration is that it shouldn't be overly cautious in its engagement with Iran. It's time to talk, and if the Iranians will agree to the West's appropriate precondition that they halt enrichment of uranium, then all issues should be on the table. You can't have an opening that's constricted. What's needed is a broad discussion of whether the security interests of Iran and those of the United States and its allies can be linked.

Here's the pitch that you can imagine Kissinger making: Iran's hopes of becoming a major power can be achieved only by halting its nuclear program and working with the United States to stabilize Iraq and the wider Middle East. I hope Secretary Rice is preparing a similar presentation. If that seems like an impossible goal, think how far China has come in the few decades since Zhou was coaxed and cajoled by Henry Kissinger.

davidignatius@washpost.com

U.S. Eyes Venezuela-Iran Commercial Alliance

Chris Kraul, Los Angeles Times:

The VenIran low-rise tractor factory in remote eastern Venezuela is one of the signs of Iran's growing presence in Venezuela, which is being monitored by a U.S. government on alert for any evidence that Iran may be exporting terrorism.

Such evidence would come in handy to the United States, which is engaged in a pull-out-the-stops campaign to prevent Venezuela from securing the rotating Latin American seat on the United Nations Security Council. The vote is scheduled for October.

The United States has said Venezuela would be a "disruptive" and "non-consensus-seeking" force on the Security Council. As evidence, officials point to Venezuela's refusal, along with North Korea's, to support the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors' resolution in March criticizing Iran's nuclear-material development program. READ MORE

That same month, the first bright-red tractors rolled out of the factory in this sprawling industrial town on the massive Orinoco River. Now producing 40 tractors a week, the plant will be followed by a bus factory and a cement plant involving joint Iranian-Venezuelan ventures.

Venezuelan officials say it is merely an extension of the friendship between the two members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and that the host country has a lot to learn from Iran's formation of its many socialist cooperatives, a central part of the new economic model being followed by President Hugo Chavez.

The tractor factory is a so-called Nucleus of Endogenous Development, the term for the state-sponsored job-creation program that Chavez is pushing to lure workers away from overcrowded, traffic-choked cities such as Caracas and Maracaibo. Iran has formed dozens of hybrid worker-state companies such as VenIran, said a Venezuelan government official.

U.S. government officials say they are monitoring the Iranian presence and watching for nefarious activities.

There may be much to monitor before long. On a visit to Venezuela this month, an Iranian industry vice minister said his country planned to invest $9 billion in 125 projects here. Among them is the cement factory under construction in Monagas state, along with 2,500 nearby housing units for workers.

As for the tractor factory, U.S. officials joke about what it is really producing — an example of the mistrust and rancor permeating United States-Venezuela relations in recent years.

Chavez has railed against U.S. "imperium," whereas top American officials paint Chavez as sympathetic to terrorists, namely the biggest Colombian rebel group, known by its Spanish initials FARC and officially branded as a terrorist group by the U.S. State Department.

U.S. officials suspect that Chavez affords guerrilla groups rest-and-recreation space along his country's border with Colombia. A Venezuelan cattlemen's association in western Venezuela this week said that the FARC was rustling significant numbers of cattle while the Venezuelan military looked the other way.

Chavez has strenuously denied giving aid to Colombian leftist guerrillas.

U.S. officials acknowledge that there is no evidence of Chavez engaging directly in terrorism. They dismissed as unfounded a rumor that Venezuela was or soon would be selling uranium to Iran. Venezuela is known to have uranium deposits in Amazon state but the mineral is not being mined, they said.

The tractor factory is in an industrial park in underpopulated Bolivar state, of which Ciudad Bolivar is the capital. About 70 Venezuelan workers are on the payroll here, with eight Iranian managers. The building sat abandoned for 30 years after another state-sponsored job-creation program, also to build tractors, collapsed months after the factory opened in the mid-1970s, local officials said.

Despite low-key projects such as this one, Western diplomats in the region are clearly uneasy about Iran establishing a commercial beachhead in Venezuela, fearing the Islamic Republic's designs in the region may not be strictly business. Some have said that Iran's increasing links with Venezuela already have helped make the South American country a center of intrigue.

Although it has no proof that Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant organization, has set up operations in Venezuela, U.S. government sources note that Iranian embassies have funded, accommodated and, in some cases, housed Hezbollah operations. The group, labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Israel, is suspected of involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.

"It would be an unfortunate thing if the Iran-Venezuelan alliance were to create a base of operations closer to the shores of the United States," a U.S. official said. "Iranian embassies and Hezbollah seem to go together."

U.S. officials are also worried about whether Iran will share its know-how on jury-rigging U.S.-made jets, which it has been doing since the U.S. hostage crisis in 1979 when U.S. diplomatic relations and military aid were cut off, leaving Iran with numerous U.S. military aircraft to maintain.

The U.S. has refused to give Chavez spare parts for the 24 F-16 fighters his country acquired in 1982, and is worried that Tehran may show him how to keep them flying without them, as Iran's military seems to be doing with its fleet of F-111s, F-14s and F-5 fighter jets purchased when the shah was in power.

The BBC reported this week that, according to a U.S. diplomatic note it had obtained called "Defeating Venezuela in the 2006 non-permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council," the United States fears that Venezuela would use the seat for "ideological grandstanding."

The Bush administration is campaigning for Guatemala to get the open seat and is putting pressure on other Latin American nations to support it as well, U.N. sources told The Times this week.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez said that Venezuela's would be an independent voice on the council and that it would not automatically vote against the U.S. on issues of international importance.

"We will use our position there to support peace in the world and refuse all kinds of attacks on peaceful countries," Rodriguez said.

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John R. Bolton has criticized Venezuela's campaign for a seat, saying it would not contribute to the effective operations of the Security Council.

"I think we're making our position very clear, very persuasively too," Bolton said when asked Wednesday whether the U.S. was encouraging other countries not to support Venezuela.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Times staff writer Maggie Farley at the United Nations contributed to this report.

North Korean Diplomatic Strategy Mirrors Iran's

David E. Sanger, The New York Times:

For years North Korea has supplied Iran with missile technology, and late last year the White House told American intelligence agencies to evaluate the danger that the North Koreans might be tempted to sell their nuclear expertise — or a bomb's worth of plutonium — to the Iranians.

But in the past few days, it has become clear that the two countries are also pursuing similar diplomatic strategies. North Korea's threat to launch a long-range ballistic missile seems a clear echo of Iran's recent strategy of resuming production of nuclear fuel. Iran was aiming to extract concessions from the Bush administration, and it has already won some modest diplomatic gains. READ MORE

But for North Korea, both the power and the risks of a move carried out in full view of commercial and spy satellites have now become evident. Either because of bad weather or sudden political indecision in the capital, Pyongyang, the missile has stayed on the launching pad.

The very public act of rolling out a new missile — one that might prove capable of hitting the United States, or, alternatively, might fall into the Pacific — has succeeded in getting the world to focus on North Korea. That must be seen as progress for the North, after months in which Iran's nuclear program — far less developed than North Korea's — has grabbed all the headlines.

But the delay, along with warnings from nations around the world about what might happen if North Korea presses the button, has led some to speculate that Kim Jong Il, the country's reclusive leader, may be reconsidering his options. His last missile test, over Japan in 1998, led the Clinton administration into negotiations and a mild relaxation of penalties against the country. But Bush administration officials and Asian diplomats say it is unlikely that North Korea can now extract similar concessions. "What they are doing right now is very calculated," said Gary Samore, who directed the nonproliferation office of the National Security Council under President Clinton. "They probably view the American offer to talk to Iran last month as an admission of weakness."

But Mr. Samore, no admirer of the Bush administration's approach to the North, said that even if North Korea was seeking to mimic the Iranian strategy, "I don't think it will work — I suspect they are misreading us, again."

The two countries' influence on each other has been a two-way street. Earlier this year Iran threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and evict all inspectors if it felt it was under too much pressure from the West. North Korea did withdraw from the treaty three years ago.

A senior administration official who deals with the nuclear programs of both countries, who asked not to be identified because he was discussing intelligence issues, said Friday, "I think they do pay a lot of attention to how the steps taken by the other work out." But he said that the countries have had "a rocky relationship" at times, and that threatening missile tests "has been in the North Korean playbook for some time."

The North Koreans know the Iranians, and their weapons programs, intimately. Iran's missiles are based on the North Korean Rodong, a medium-range missile. North Korean engineers are often sighted at Iranian facilities. "It is widely believed that the North Koreans have offered to sell Taepodong 1 and 2 to Iran, and if the thing works, it might make the Iranians more interested in buying more than blueprints," Mr. Samore said. "This whole test could be good for North Korean sales." Taepodong missiles have a much longer range than the Rodong and are capable of carrying larger payloads.

That has made the North Korea-Iran trading routes a prime target of the administration's Proliferation Security Initiative, and American officials say they foiled an Iranian effort to load one of its cargo planes on North Korean soil.

But the study ordered by the White House about whether the two countries might expand their business relationship to nuclear materials ended inconclusively. Just as the American offer to Iran was coming together last month, American satellites over North Korea began spotting the move of the Taepodong 2 missile to the launching pad. And just as the Iranians claimed they had full legal rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to produce uranium, the North Koreans insist that they have the right to test missiles, even though they promised a moratorium on such flights in 1999. North Korea's aim for the past five years has been to force the Bush administration into one-on-one talks, something President Bush has always refused to agree to. For the first three years of his administration, he refused to deal with the country at all. That led to the bold move by North Korea in January 2003, when it threw out the inspectors and seized 8,000 spent fuel rods from a storage facility that had been sealed since a 1994 agreement with Mr. Clinton.

The North claims to have converted all those rods into bomb-grade plutonium, a boast that the administration says it has to take at face value. Ultimately, Mr. Bush came to the table — but not alone, agreeing to negotiations that also included Japan, China, Russia and South Korea. The North Koreans reluctantly joined the sessions, and signed a statement of principles — disarmament in return for a list of benefits. But since then, almost everything has fallen apart. The North Koreans have not gone back to the talks, refusing entreaties from China to return until Washington ends financial penalties that it had imposed to stop sales of missiles, drugs and counterfeit dollars.

And then the American focus switched to Iran, where the Bush administration signed off last month on an offer to provide Western-made light-water nuclear reactors, promises of economic engagement and a lifting of sanctions, if Iran agreed to suspend its production of uranium.

That American approach to Iran looked a lot like the now-dead deal the North negotiated with the Clinton administration 12 years ago. "You could almost hear the North Koreans saying, 'Wait a minute, we can't get in to talk to the Americans, and the Iranians get the whole nine yards,' " said Robert L. Gallucci, the dean of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and the lead negotiator of the 1994 accord.