Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [2/27/06 -3/04/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran's Nuclear Program.

• Times Online said the IAEA report will likely be tough on Iran.
• The Financial Times reported that Iran said on Sunday that it had struck an agreement with Russia on its nuclear program. But failed to resolve the issue of whether Iran would desist from all controversial nuclear activities.
• CNN News reported that the head of Russia's nuclear agency, Sergei Kiriyenko, said the talks had further to go.
• The Jerusalem Post reminded us that while Iran's agreement to a Russian enrichment program would alleviate immediate fears that it was trying to manufacture nuclear weapons, but would not entirely eliminate it.
• FOX News added that Moscow will insist on resolving the Iranian nuclear dispute within the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency.
• DEBKAfile reported on a split among Russian leaders with President Vladimir Putin preferring to go along with the West, while Kirienko (who led the talks in Iran) leads a Kremlin faction that advocates breaking ranks with Washington and Europe.
• The Washington Post reported that Iran is seeking a guarantee that the US will not attack.
• Rooz Online published some previously undisclosed discussions among the Iranian regime regarding in the Iran-EU Nuclear talks. A must read.
• Vital Perspective published the full text of the embargoed IAEA Report on Iran's Nuclear Program.
• The Financial Times reported that France, Germany and Britain dismissed Tehran’s announcement that it had reached a “basic agreement” with Russia. German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said “The Iranian position is an attempt to split the international community. It will not succeed.”
• Itar-Tass reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Russian proposal "is not isolated, being a component of the possible package, with which all the members of the IAEA board of governors will have to agree."
• Rooz Online reported that with the upcoming March 6 meeting of the IAEA coming soon, journalists are being summoned to the Ministry of Islamic Guidance and threatened on what they write.
• The Los Angeles Times argued that Iran's case is significantly different than the case made against Iraq saying the IAEA has credibility internationally as an impartial analyst.
• BBC News reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has arrived in Tokyo for talks about Iran's nuclear program.
• CNN News reported that Iran's foreign minister Mottaki said his country's "final target" is to enrich uranium on its own soil, adding: "We are talking about moving together from where we are now and there is no going back."
• Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ali Larijani will travel to Moscow on Wednesday.
• The Jerusalem Post argued that even if Iran agrees to the Russian proposal: Does any nation seriously believe that Iran has given up its quest for nuclear weapons?
• Reuters reported that Russian and Iranian negotiators met in Moscow on to reach a compromise on the Russian nuclear proposal.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russia and Iran have failed to achieve any breakthrough in their talks.
• Radio Free Europe reported that President Bush said Iran "shall not have the means, the knowledge, to develop a nuclear weapon."
• The Wall Street Journal reported that a forthcoming report by IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei on Iran's nuclear programs offers evidence of a cover-up as alarming as anything a pulp novelist could dream up.
• The New York Times reported that in a surprise development, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany have agreed to meet with Iran's top nuclear negotiator to discuss what Iran is describing as new ideas to break the impasse over its nuclear program.
• Iran Press News reported that Ali Zodsar, a member of the Majlis (the Islamic Parliaments Assembly) told reporters: "The Russians and the British are much worse than Americans."
• Yahoo News reported that talks between European Union negotiators and Iran over its nuclear ambitions broke up Friday without any agreement.
• New Press then reported a possible compromise. European diplomats saying that it would allow Tehran to run a scaled-down uranium enrichment program.
• Telegraph reported that Iran's former nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rohani has revealed how Teheran played for time and tried to dupe the West.
• Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani threatened to leave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if it referred Tehran's nuclear program to the UN Security Council.
• The Washington Post reported that the Bush administration is seeking a 30-day deadline for Tehran to halt its nuclear program.
• Voice of America reported that President Bush said the entire world would be in danger if Iran manages to build or possess nuclear weapons.
• Reuters reported that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United Nations Security Council was unlikely to impose sanctions on Iran as a first step.
• The New York Times examined the question: How long will it be before Tehran has the ability to produce a bomb?
• The Power and Interest News Report argued that the United States does not have the leverage to prevent it from pursuing its aggressive nuclear policy.
  

The Bombing of the Shiite Holy Site in Samarra.

• Reuters reported that more than 500 so-called protesters gathered outside the British Embassy in Tehran. The government of Iran has blamed the bombing on the US, Britain and Israel.
• Iran Focus reported that the deputy governor of the Iraqi province of Saladin, where the holy city of Samarra is situated, said preliminary investigation was pointing to Iran’s role in the bombing of the city’s revered Shiite shrine last week.
  

Update on the Tehran Bus Strikers.

• Iran Focus reported that close to a hundred bus drivers and conductors, who have been released recently from Evin Prison, gathered on Monday outside the Tehran Bus Company headquarters to protest against the government’s handling of their case.
• Iran Press News reported that Monday, the spokesman of the striking bus union in Tehran was arrested and summarily transferred to Evin prison.
  

Demonstrators in Iran threatened Christian Armenians.

• Iran Press News reported on an unprecedented violent demonstration in front of a local Armenian church, chanting anti-Armenian and anti-Christian slogans in the city of Tabriz.
  

Iranian Leaders On the Offensive.

• Mehran Riazaty reported that Iran's Supreme Leader said an Islamic government has been formed in Iraq.
• Mehran Riazaty reported that Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (Ahmadinejad's mentor) published his views on Martyrdom Operations on his website.
• Rooz Online reported that in response to the revelations made several days ago by Hassan Rohani about the Iranian leaderships numerous attempts to hide details of its nuclear program from the IAEA, hard-liners are claiming his words threaten national security.
• Rooz Online reported that Ahmadinejad's government has been asking local governments to focus on "short term" development projects in hope that people would regain their trust in their elected officials.
• Rooz Online reported that Ahmadinejad's ultra-hardline government has decided to review the employment contracts of university professors deemed to be “un-Islamic”.
• Rooz Online reported that Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence has classified domestic and foreign-based Iranian web blogs to determine whether and when a web-blog will be denied access from internet users from inside Iran.
• Iran Focus reported that Ahmadinejad declared in Malaysia that Islam will be the dominant power in the “near future.”
• Yahoo News reported that Ahmadinejad, referring to the west, warned: "Domination and bullying will not last much longer. Bullies and Zionists beware -- you are going to fall."
• Iran Focus reported that Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said of Western leaders: “The decision-makers must be careful not to create hardship for themselves and the region.”
• Iran Focus reported that Iran’s Interior Minister accused the United States of using its infiltrators in al-Qaeda to carry out terrorist attacks.
• Iran Focus reported that a representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that Islam must “conquer the world” by defeating the West.
  

Power Struggle inside of Iran.

• Rooz Online published some previously undisclosed discussions among the Iranian regime regarding in the Iran-EU Nuclear talks. A must read.
• BBC News reported that ex-Iranian President Mohammad Khatami has called the Holocaust a historical reality.
• Stratfor argued that the fact that Khatami and a newspaper were allowed to criticize Ahmadinejad publicly means Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei probably approved out of a desire to tame the ultraconservatives.
  

Rumors of War.

• Yahoo News reported that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said he had advised the United States against attacking Iran.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that, due to recent changes in its program, Israel's Arrow 2 anti-ballistic missile system is capable of intercepting and destroying any Iranian missiles.
• Shirin Neshat of Sarbazan, Sarafrazan.net criticized StopWarOnIran.org's petition of protest against a possible war between the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) regime and the West.
  

More Calls for an Internal Regime Change in Iran.

• Peter Kohanloo, Iran va Jahan argued that President Bush to make regime change in Iran the official policy of the US government.
• The National Press Club will host a lecture, March 1st, with Reza Pahlavi, who will discuss "The Current Situation in Iran."
• Reza Pahlavi's Secretariat, PR Newswire Association reported that Reza Pahlavi, at the National Press Club, challenged the ongoing debate between proponents of military action versus diplomacy, instead appealing to the "free world to support the thousand circles of localized dissent and opposition that readily exists in Iran."
• United Press International added that Reza Pahlavi argued in his NPC speech that "[Western diplomats] are operating under the false assumption that the other side wants a solution."
• Ken Timmerman, The Foundation for Democracy in Iran reported that the State Department has created, a long over due, special office to promote democracy-promotion in Iran.
• CNN News reported that the U.S. State Department is creating a special Office of Iran Affairs and a senior official said the office is being created "to facilitate a change in Iranian policies and actions."
• The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee held hearings on Iran. But they still need to take up the issue of the Iran Freedom & Support Act. Call your Senators and ask them to support of this important bill today.
• Senator Santorum's Office released the text of the statement of Senator Rick Santorum to Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the need to support the Iran Freedom & Support Act.
• The Financial Times reported that Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah of Iran called on Iran’s fractious opposition groups to unite against the Islamic regime.
  

Iran's Dissidents.

• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that Iranian dissident and opposition leader Akbar Ganji is scheduled to be released from Evin Prison in about 20 days, as of Tuesday.
• Iran Press News reported that the Iranian regime's agents in Iranian Kurdistan are threatening to slaughter political activists.
• Iran Press News reported that Iranian political prisoners condemned the Nobel Prize winning Shirin Ebadi for not standing with them in their struggle.
• Iran Press News reported that imprisoned journalist; Mostafa Jowkar was released from prison.
  

The Unrest inside of Iran.

• BBC News reported that two bombs have exploded in the southern Iranian cities of Dezful and Abadan, planted in the governor's offices.
• Middle East Newsline reported Iran has expanded the authority of the Basij militia to include police, defense and relief operations.
• Fibre 2 Fashion reported that textile workers blocked a major highway from the city of Isfahan to Tehran to protest against non-payment of their salaries.
• Iran Press News reported that Bina Darab-Zand, activist political prisoner, in a letter to the warden of Evin prison, refused any more visitors due to the humiliating abuse they receive.
• BBC News reported that a bomb exploded in the southern Iranian city of Ahwaz, hours after two men were hung for an attack last year.
• Iran Focus reported that Iranian authorities are using a fatwa, or religious decree, to ban the use of fireworks during this year’s traditional “fire festival” marking the end of the Persian year.
  

Human Rights/Religious and Press Freedom inside of Iran.

• Rooz Online reported that with the upcoming March 6 meeting of the IAEA coming soon, on what they write.
• Rooz Online reported that a group of Iranian women have decided to ignore an unwritten and illegitimate order that has banned them from attending soccer games.
• Mail & Guardian Online reported two men convicted of carrying out a deadly a bomb attack in Iran's restive oil city of Ahvaz were executed in public early on Thursday.
  

Iran's Economy.

• Reuters reported that Iran is preparing to grant gas contracts to European firms: Total, Shell and Repsol.
• Rooz Online reported that that soon Ahmadinejad’s cleansing process of the banking system will be complete.
• Iran Press News that Dr. Hadi Ghanimi-Fard, an Employment and Labor authority in Iran told ILNA, said: "In Iran there are no opportunities for prosperity for an employer, factory-owner, job creator, job or worker."
  

Iran's Military.

• Middle East Newsline reported that Iran launched a Shihab-4 missile, designed to have a range of 4,000 kilometers. Watch out Europe.
• Iran Focus reported that a senior commander in the Bassij has been named the new head of the IRGC’s secretive Ansar-ol-Mahdi Protection Corps, whose officers are entrusted with weapons of mass of destruction and terrorist activities beyond Iran’s borders.
  

Iranian Troublemaking.

• Iran Focus published a list of 20 terrorist camps and centres run by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
• Rooz Online reported that the Esteshhadiyun group (martyr-seekers) official website in Iran and invites people to register and ready for martyr suicide operations. The website even quotes religious scripts indicating that it is permissible for Muslim women to forego the hijab for a higher purpose and cause.
  

Iran and the International community.

• Telegraph reported that Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, dismissed Iranian overtures to take over funding for the new Hamas-led Palestinian Authority.
• Reuters reported that a senior Hamas official said: Iran has agreed to provide a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority with enough money to make up for any cuts in foreign aid.
• David Ignatius, The Washington Post examined why the world is treating India's nuclear program differently than Iran's.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel will find ways to block the flow of Iranian money into the West Bank if Teheran attempts give a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority 250 million dollars.
• BBC News reported that President George W Bush has dropped its staunch opposition to a proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan.
  

Insight into the Iranian people.

• The Guardian examined the nearly universal belief in Iran that the Brits are behind nearly every major event in Iran and why.
  

Interviews.

• Scott Macleod, Time Magazine published part one of an interview with Ali Larijani, Iran's foreign policy chief and top nuclear negotiator.
• Scott Macleod, Time Magazine published part two of his interview with Ali Larijani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.
  

Must Read reports.

• Roya Hakakian, The Wall Street Journal argued that the Iranian regime is using the nuclear crisis to divert global attention to the country's many domestic problems, giving the ruling clerics free rein to devastate opposition with all the brutality they can muster.
  

The Experts.

• Michael Rubin, The Wall Street Journal provided evidence that Iran's Iraq strategy is a repeat of its successful Hezbollah strategy in Lebanon.
• Ken Timmerman, NewsMax published details of a 30-page contingency plan, reportedly from the Strategic Studies Center of the Iranian Navy which outlines the order of battle for shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
• Ilan Berman, The American Spectator applauded the US administration's C-change in its approach to Iran but warned that Voice of America and Radio Farda suffer from serious systemic dysfunctions.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat reported on a vitally important philosophical debate which lies at the heart of the Iranian regime.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat takes a serious look at how viable is the "Chinese Model", that Iran's hard-liners are fond of discussing?
• Patrick Clawson, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published his analysis of what he calls: the least bad options for limiting the growing threats from Iran.
• Ilan Berman, The Washington Times reported whether the United States can and should carry out a pre-emptive attack on Iran's numerous nuclear facilities.
• Amir Taheri, The New York Post argued why it's time for Iraq's Ibrahim al-Jaafari to quit.
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• Iran Press News published a humorous photo of an Iranian Missile Seen Over Germany.
• Dr. Iman Foroutan & Rahkshan Foroutan, Ishan "Them" released a music video whose theme is "political prisoners must be freed," with important footage of Iranian protests.
• Channel 4 News reported that Iran has granted unprecedented access Channel 4 News and a team of a dozen journalists, cameramen and technicians, to produce a series of live program from Iran beginning on Monday 6 March. Watch the videos.
• Rooz Online reported that a group of 50 or-so women who had gathered outside the Azadi stadium in Tehran to enter the stadium to watch the soccer match and were attacked by Security Forces. See Photo.
  

And finally, The Quote of the Week.

United Press International added that Reza Pahlavi argued in his NPC speech that

"[Western diplomats] are operating under the false assumption that the other side [the Iranian regime] wants a solution."

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.05.2006:

How Iran duped the West.

• Telegraph reported that Iran's former nuclear negotiator, Hassan Rohani has revealed how Teheran played for time and tried to dupe the West.

Iran threatens to leave the IAEA.

• Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani threatened to leave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) if it referred Tehran's nuclear program to the UN Security Council.

More Warnings from inside Iran.

• Iran Focus reported that Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said of Western leaders: “The decision-makers must be careful not to create hardship for themselves and the region.”
• Iran Focus reported that Iran’s Interior Minister accused the United States of using its infiltrators in al-Qaeda to carry out terrorist attacks.
• Iran Focus reported that a representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that Islam must “conquer the world” by defeating the West.

Iran's Leaders worry about March 15th celebrations in Iran.

• Iran Focus reported that Iranian authorities are using a fatwa, or religious decree, to ban the use of fireworks during this year’s traditional “fire festival” marking the end of the Persian year.

The US seeks a deadline for Iran.

• The Washington Post reported that the Bush administration is seeking a 30-day deadline for Tehran to halt its nuclear program.
• Voice of America reported that President Bush said the entire world would be in danger if Iran manages to build or possess nuclear weapons.
• Reuters reported that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the United Nations Security Council was unlikely to impose sanctions on Iran as a first step.

Bush makes a concession to India and Pakistan on Iran.

• BBC News reported that President George W Bush has dropped its staunch opposition to a proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Channel 4 News reported that Iran has granted unprecedented access Channel 4 News and a team of a dozen journalists, cameramen and technicians, to produce a series of live program from Iran beginning on Monday 6 March. Watch the videos.
• Amir Taheri, The New York Post argued why it's time for Iraq's Ibrahim al-Jaafari to quit.
• The New York Times examined the question: How long will it be before Tehran has the ability to produce a bomb?
• The Power and Interest News Report argued that the United States does not have the leverage to prevent it from pursuing its aggressive nuclear policy.
• Rooz Online reported that the Esteshhadiyun group (martyr-seekers) official website in Iran and invites people to register and ready for martyr suicide operations. The website even quotes religious scripts indicating that it is permissible for Muslim women to forego the hijab for a higher purpose and cause.
• And finally, Rooz Online reported that a group of 50 or-so women who had gathered outside the Azadi stadium in Tehran to enter the stadium to watch the soccer match and were attacked by Security Forces. See Photo.

Iran cleric says Islam must conquer world

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website

A representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran University declared on Friday that Islam must “conquer the world” by defeating the West. READ MORE

Hojjatol-Islam Alireza Panahyan, who was delivering the pre-sermon speech at this week’s Friday prayers in the Iranian capital, said that the West was trying to put fear into the hearts of Muslims through “torture and nuclear weapons”.

“We intend to conquer the world without [nuclear] weapons. Such weapons are not needed to set the stage for the return of the [Shiite messiah] Mahdi”, Panahyan said.

He called on Muslims to overcome their fear of the West’s might.

“If you do not fear and take a stance, they will not be able to say anything and will try not to get into a fight with you, because they know that they will lose”, he said.

Iran official says U.S. behind al-Qaeda attacks

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website

Iran’s Interior Minister accused the United States of using its infiltrators in al-Qaeda to carry out terrorist attacks that would serve its interests, government-owned newspapers in Tehran reported on Saturday. READ MORE

Radical Shiite cleric Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi said that Iran had “specific intelligence” proving that the U.S. had infiltrated al-Qaeda and ordered its cells to carry out terrorist attacks to convince other members of the group that they are genuine devotees.

“We have specific intelligence that America has infiltrated al-Qaeda with certain individuals and has even given [its cells] the orders for terrorist strikes in order to strengthen their position”, Pour-Mohammadi told a meeting of local officials in the southern city of Kerman.

He also blamed “foreigners” for being behind a spate of bombings in the south-western Iranian oil-city of Ahwaz in order to destabilise the country.

“The amount of explosives that security forces discovered in Khuzistan shows that there was an extensive plan to deal a blow to the Islamic Republic, and the details will soon be divulged”, he said.

Pour-Mohammadi, whose career at the top of Iran’s secret police and intelligence agencies spanned over two decades before he moved on to the Interior Ministry, said Western governments did not expect the “strength of reactions by the Muslim world” over the issue of cartoons depicting Islam’s Prophet Mohammad.

Iran uses fatwa to contain “unruly” festival

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website

Iranian authorities are using a fatwa, or religious decree, to ban the use of fireworks during this year’s traditional “fire festival” marking the end of the Persian year, Iran Focus has learnt.

Senior clerics have publicly stated that the use of fireworks in the festivities is ‘haram’, or religiously forbidden. In recent years, disenchanted Iranians, particularly the young, have turned the ancient celebrations, which occur on the last Tuesday evening of the Persian year, into a massive anti-government carnival. READ MORE

Iran’s state-owned media have given much prominence to a fatwa by Grand Ayatollah Lotfollah Safi Golpaygani, forbidding the use of firecrackers and fireworks and disapproving of the festival itself.

A top police officer announced on Friday that Iran’s State Security Forces are on full alert to deal harshly with anyone who “disrupts public order and causes problems for the traffic”.

Brigadier General Eskandar Momeni said that his forces had arrested many sellers and distributors of firecrackers.

During the pre-Islamic festival, known as ‘chaharshanbeh souri’ – literally, Feast of Wednesday – people jump over bonfires to “drive away evil”. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, however, Iran’s theocratic leaders have made strenuous efforts to stamp out the festivities, but to no avail. In recent years, there have been extensive clashes between festive crowds and the security forces deployed to prevent street celebrations. This year the last Tuesday of the Persian year falls on March 14. ...

Last year, despite the general ban Iranians across the country came out into the streets using the celebration as a pretext to express their anger towards the ruling theocracy. In Tehran, in several districts, effigies of Iran’s leaders such as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were burnt.

Iran warns West’s nuclear decision-makers

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website

A senior Iranian cleric warned the West’s nuclear decision-makers on Friday not to attempt to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear capabilities.

“The decision-makers must be careful not to create hardship for themselves and the region”, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former President and current chairman of the Supreme National Security Council, told worshippers during his Friday prayers sermon in Tehran, the state-run news agency ISNA reported.

“They must not untie a knot which can be opened with the hand using their teeth”, Rafsanjani said. READ MORE

He called for unity among the various factions of the ruling theocracy. “At this juncture when the enemies have their eyes set on our country, we must protect the status of the country through this unity”.

Rafsanjani said that Iran’s enemies were seeking to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear capabilities through “illegitimate methods” such as “infiltrating” the United Nations.

It's Time for Ibrahim al-Jaafari to Quit

Amir Taheri, The New York Post:

THE Shiite Alliance in Iraq insists that the new parliament approve Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the incumbent prime minister, as head of a new government.

Strictly legally speaking, there is nothing wrong with that. Having won 128 of the 275 seats, the Shiite Alliance is the largest bloc in the new parliament. And the constitution grants the right to nominate the head of government to the bloc with the biggest share of seats.

But nominating does not mean imposing - the parliament has the final word on the head of government and on each Cabinet post. And, by all indications, al-Jaafari is not the popular choice of the new parliament. READ MORE

This week's comment by Muwaffaq al-Ruba'i, al-Jaafari's spokesman, that formation of the Cabinet could take "many months" is irresponsible, to say the least. Blocking the political process for partisan considerations could do great damage to Iraq's new democracy.

Al-Jaafari leads one wing of the Dawa party, an Islamist movement that, after decades of internal feuding, declared reunification two years ago in what many saw as a purely tactical ploy.

It is not easy to assess Dawa's exact electoral strength; the party contested the election in a coalition with a dozen-plus parties and groups. But most polls indicate that, on its own, Dawa wouldn't pull more than 12 percent.

Within the alliance, Al-Jaafari's nomination was approved by 64 votes - against 63 votes for his chief rival, Adel Abdul-Mahdi.

Dawa holds just 30 of the alliance's 128 seats; the rest of the votes for al-Jaafari came from the Fadhila (Virtue) party, with 20 seats, and the group around the pro-Iranian militia maverick Muqtada al-Sadr.

The largest component of the alliance, the Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq, voted for Abdul-Mahdi.

In short, al-Jaafari represents a minority within the Shiite constituency. It is hard to see how someone with such a limited base could lead a broad national coalition.

Worse still, al-Jaafari's surprise return seems to have been caused, at least in part, by his rivalry with Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, a junior cleric who heads the Shiite Alliance. Al-Jaafari reportedly said he wouldn't stand for premiership if al-Hakim would hand him the presidency of the alliance. Personal ambition is no sin, but Iraq's new democracy is too fragile to let career calculations determine the big picture.

Al-Jaafari's opponents describe his stewardship of Iraq's affairs over the last 10 month as lackluster to disastrous.

Yet the return of the Arab Sunnis to the political mainstream and their acceptance of the new democratic rules are, at least in part, the fruits of much labor on al-Jaafari's part. He must also be credited with having outmaneuvered the Arab League states, forcing them to accept the new Iraq as a reality. It was also during al-Jaafari's premiership that agreement on forgiving most of Iraq's foreign debt was finalized.

Also unfair is the claim that al-Jaafari is somehow "Tehran's man." Yes, he spent part of his long exile in Iran, but his British period was even longer. It is also hard to see how al-Jaafari could be "Tehran's man" while being one of the favored candidates of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. Far from being "Tehran's man" al-Jaafari is an Iraqi patriot with a strong record of fighting the Saddamite regime.

All in all, al-Jaafari's record as prime minister could get an average mark. And that, under the circumstances, is not bad at all.

But al-Jaafari would do Iraq a greater service if he were to drop out of this race.

First of all, the new political landscape, which includes Arab Sunni parties for the first time, could do with a new face at the center. To many Sunnis, al-Jaafari is the face of their confusion and humiliation in the time when they could not accept the death of the old system and feared the new one.

Second, he is identified with a number of politics that will not work in the new Iraq. He still clings to economic ideas suitable for a rentier state rather than a modern economy open to global currents. Al-Jaafari presents his economic policy under the old label of a "welfare state" - though his performance in practice has been closer to pork-barrel politics.

Third, he has managed to win the distrust of both those who wanted thorough de-Ba'athification and those who who want all but a few dozen ex-Ba'athists to be reintegrated into the new system.

Finally, al-Jaafari has been ambivalent about the need to disarm and dissolve the various militias, including several Shiite ones, whose presence is a permanent challenge to the authority of the new Iraqi army and police.

One reason for al-Jaafari's position on this issue is his increasing reliance on al-Sadr's notorious Mahdi Army, whose links with Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah anger most Iraqis.

Fortunately, the new Iraqi constitution provides adequate mechanisms for a broader debate on the issue of who should head the government.

There is some pressure, part of it coming from Washington, to speed up the formation of the new government. Iraqis, however, should take their time, but certainly not months, and make sure that they form a government based on a genuine national consensus rather than narrow, sectarian calculations.

Because the new government will last for four years, it is important that it be based on a policy package backed by the broadest possible forces in the new Iraq.

Iranian author Amir Taheri is a member of Benador Associates.

Women Attacked at Stadium

Rooz Online:

A group of 50 or-so women who had gathered outside the Azadi stadium in Tehran to enter the stadium to watch the soccer match between Iran and Costa Rica was attacked by the police. Iranian regulations and policy do not allow women to watch men’s sporting events in public. The event had been publicized by Internet websites and word of mouth by the women.

Following the web-blog invitation by a Tehrani woman for young Iranian women to physically participate in the Costa Rica – Iran match at the stadium, a group of women, some of whom had been allowed to watch last year’s soccer team between Iran and Bahrain just a few days before the current hardline president won the race to the presidency, gathered again last week to “exercise their civil rights,” as one of them explained and watch the game live. The enthusiasts had bought tickets and had gathered outside the stadium two hours before the match. They attempted to enter the stadium but were denied entrance because they were women. The women carried placards that read, “We want to encourage our esteemed national team” and, “Soccer without TV is our right.”

The women, who were wearing white scarves and holding flags of Iran, were challenged by the security and police forces right from the beginning. The police had been on the spot even before the women had arrived, and when the women began to gather, the police warned them that they would be arrested unless they broke up their gathering and left the scene. READ MORE

When Colonel Mohammad Hassan Assadi who is responsible for the security of the stadium arrived on the scene, things began to change, eventually leading to a scuffle between his force and the women. According to eye witnesses, the colonel grabbed the flags in the hands of the women and then cursed them through public speaker system and then told his force, “Do not speak with these people. Just beat them up.” Witnesses said that the colonel personally attacked a young woman of about 14 or 15 years old and struck a blow at her. He then turned his attention to the reporters who were covering the incident and after asking checking her press card, grabbed her notes from her hands.

After the soccer match began, a member of Tehran Council’s Logistics Council, Mousavi, requested to talk with the women. When a mini-bus arrived at the scene, he promised on the Quran to take the women inside the stadium. After the women boarded the bus, instead of driving to the stadium, the women were taken to Azadi square a few miles a way. The women insisted, and after renting a mini-bus, returned to the stadium gates. At this time colonel Assadi threatened the women by saying that “if I had the permission, I would beat up all of you and send you to prison.”

The game progressed and ended while the standoff between the young women and the police continued with physical assaults on the women.

Iran’s official media either ignored the event, or presented the women as “trouble-makers” and “disrupters.” But Iranian web bloggers, including some of the women participants in the stadium demand, have posted their accounts of the events and their cause. Here and here are two examples.

Martyr Recruitment Group Promises Heaven

Bahram Rafiee, Rooz Online:

The Esteshhadiyun group (martyr-seekers) has launched its official website in Iran and invites people to register with it to be available and ready for martyr suicide operations. Until now, hardline fundamentalist internet web sites had promoted the goals of the Esteshhadiyun and their news bulletins. Now, they have their own link facility to their “members”, i.e. those who have signed up and registered to be martyr-seekers. READ MORE

At the conclusion of the "Olive Girls" seminar held a few weeks ago where registration for martyr-seekers in Iran began, the spokesperson of the group announced that about 60,000 individuals had registered as martyrs, in what the group calls the International Islamic Movement, and awaited instructions from it. The internet site of the Esteshhadiyun posts instructions for martyrs’ readiness, and asks for the military involvement of the force in Iraq and to protect Shiite holy shrines. It calls its goal to be the confrontation of infidels and Zionism. It even asks Iranian leaders for their consent to engage in Iraq.

On the on-site application form, the group asks its applicants not to provide regular land telephone numbers but, if they do not have cell-phones, expect to communicate through email. In the past Iranian officials has labeled such “recruitment” or registration exercises as “mere propaganda”. Now with an actual website and a formal registration process, it appears that the issue is more than just a propaganda exercise and is in fact a thought-through organized activity supported by senior and perhaps even leadership politicians in the Iranian regime.

The Esteshhadiyun assert that the justifications for creating the website was the publication of the cartoons in the Danish and other European newspapers that were called insulting by Muslims, and the recent attacks on the Shiite mosque in Iraq. Mohammad Ali Samadi, the spokesperson of the group had recently announced the existence of bill boards in the heart of Tehran to invite martyr-seekers to register with the group. “Registration is not taking place in Tehran alone, but through the country where we have traveled,” he said. He claimed some 53,900 individuals had already signed up. Even the bill boards indicate approval of the work of the group by government officials.

Published figures seem to indicate that the organizers have succeeded in getting more registrations from women than men. In their registration centers, the group displays images of women who are not wearing the traditional Islamic hijab, religious quotations that convey the equality of men and women, and, pictures of Palestinian women martyr-seekers. There are also other billboards in Tehran where Palestinian and other martyr-seeking women are pictures and revered, all of which indicate the special attention that the group pays to women’s registration.

The website of the Esteshhadiyun even quotes religious scripts indicating that it is permissible for Muslim women to forego the hijab for a higher purpose and cause. The website also encourages Iranian women to participate in suicide operations, arguing that permission from their husbands is not necessary in such situations.

Many experts in Iran have raised concerns about the website and its recruitment/registrations, arguing that they are against the country's national and international interests. Some conservative politicians and activists are also concerned that the Esteshhadiyun’s activities are steps to eliminate the Basij (Iran's militia) forces that were formed on ayatollah Khomeini's orders in the early days of the revolution.

A public poll appearing on the Esteshhadiyun website is note worthy as it indicates that 62% of the website visitors categorically opposed any revengeful measures against the Danish publishers of the cartoons that many Muslims believe have been insulting to them.

Larijani Threatens to Leave IAEA

Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Monsters and Critics:

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani threatened to leave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Saturday if it referred Tehran's nuclear programme to the UN Security Council. 'Why did we become a member of the IAEA? In order to be allowed to have atomic energy. It is a paradox that we are an IAEA member and yet we are not permitted to do anything. In this case, we will leave the IAEA,' Larijani told the Viennese Kurier daily in an interview to be published in its Sunday edition READ MORE

Larijani is also secretary of the influential Iranian National Security Council.

Iran has been an IAEA member since the late 1950s and a signatory to the international Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty that expressly guarantees every country the right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

Larijani stressed that Iran wanted 'to go the way of India and Pakistan (both non-signatories to the treaty) ... These countries aspire to atomic bombs; we do not, under any circumstances.'

Iran refused Friday during a meeting with the French and German foreign ministers to give up completely the domestic enrichment of uranium.

Enriched uranium is required to fuel nuclear power plants, but at higher grades it can be used to make nuclear weapons which the West, led primarily by the United States, fears Iran is planning to do.

A report by the IAEA to be released Monday criticizes Iran for violating the non-proliferation treaty. A vote by the agency's board of governors on the same day is expected to refer the case to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.

Larijani described the involvement of the Security Council as the worst case scenario for Iran. 'If the case is there (before the council), the Europeans who are on the Security Council will be sidelined by the US. The Americans will take over the steering-wheel and confront us directly without Europe exerting an influence,' he said.

But Larijani said his country was not afraid of sanctions. 'We have lived with sanctions (by the US) for 27 years. The conditions in the region are not such that sanctions could have the influence the Americans expect. I am not claiming that we won't have any difficulties, but the others will also have some,' Larijani said.

If the conflict 'pushed oil prices sky high, the Europeans would also be affected,' Larijani said.

Bush U-turn on Iranian Pipeline

BBC News:

President George W Bush has indicated the US has dropped its staunch opposition to a proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan. Mr Bush said on his visit to Pakistan he understood the need for natural gas in the region and that the US argument with Iran was over nuclear weapons. READ MORE

The $6bn project for the 2,600km (1,625 mile) pipeline will bring Iran revenue, Pakistan transit fees and India energy.

The nations hope to start construction in 2007, with key talks due this month.

The US had previously stated it was "absolutely opposed" to the gas pipeline, even indicating Pakistan and India could face sanctions if the project got under way.

But in Islamabad, Mr Bush said: "Our beef with Iran is not the pipeline, our beef with Iran is... they want to develop a nuclear weapon and I believe a nuclear weapon in the hands of the Iranians will be very dangerous for all of us."

He said he had discussed the pipeline with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and understood "the need to get natural gas in the region, that's fine".

Mr Bush said his secretary of energy would visit Pakistan to discuss Islamabad's energy needs.

However, Mr Bush indicated there was no current likelihood for a civilian nuclear deal between the US and Pakistan similar to the one he has signed with India.

Mr Bush said: "We discussed the civilian nuclear programme and I explained to him that Pakistan and India are different countries with different needs and different histories."

The US-India deal gives Delhi access to US technology although it has not signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

Pakistan said it had asked for similar treatment but Foreign Minister Khursheed Kasuri accepted things "do not happen overnight".

Two years ago Pakistani scientist AQ Khan admitted leaking nuclear secrets to countries such as Iran, Libya and North Korea.

Channel 4 News Will be Producing a Series of Live Programmes from Iran

Channel 4 News:

Jon Snow and team given unprecedented access to broadcast Channel 4 News from Iran. In the week when the crisis over Iran's nuclear programme is likely to come to a head, Channel 4 News has been allowed into the country to anchor a week of live broadcasts.

Presenter Jon Snow, named as TV Journalist of the Year by the Royal Television Society last week, heads a team of a dozen journalists, cameramen and technicians, which will be producing a series of live programmes from Iran beginning on Monday 6 March. READ MORE

On the same day, the International Atomic Energy Authority meets in Vienna to make its assessment of Iran's nuclear ambitions. It will consider whether to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for possible sanctions, which could lead to a serious deterioration in relations with the Iranian government.

No international news broadcaster has been granted such access to Iran, and the Channel 4 News team intend to use this opportunity to offer a unique insight into the country, its rulers and its people.

Editor Jim Gray said: "We've worked hard with the Iranian government over many months to make this possible. The result will, I believe, offer viewers and our website-users an unprecedented sight of this complex country at precisely the moment it takes centre-stage in world politics."

Jon Snow will be anchoring from a number of different locations, including the capital Tehran. The Channel 4 News technical team will be assisted by the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, and draw on the experience gained presenting News from Africa (2005), News from Iraq (2003), and News from India (2002).

Jon Snow said: "I am so excited about going back. I have only been to Iran once since I left in 1981. It's a fantastic country, vibrant, huge population, rich in mineral resources with amazing potential - yet if the relationship with Iran can be got to work then all sorts of things fall into place. If it doesn't, the consequences will be felt across the Middle East " .

Jon Snow will be joined by Channel 4 News's International Editor, Lindsey Hilsum, and Science Correspondent Julian Rush, in compiling nightly location reports.

A series of films has been commissioned, with independent Iranian film-makers and journalists playing a significant role in opening up aspects of the country not seen on British television before. These will examine how the world looks through Iranian eyes, exposing some of the myths perpetrated about Iran, and offering reports on politics, identity, youth, industry, technology, culture and power. Crucially, the programme will look at the danger of war, exploring and challenging Iranian perspectives on the nuclear dispute.

More 4 News, sister programme to Channel 4 News, which is broadcast at 8pm on More 4, will offers its own distinctive contributions to in the coverage.

For the first time, Jon Snow will podcasting from Iran, giving a daily insight into the challenges of reporting from the country. He'll also be writing his daily Snowmail, which goes out to nearly 30,000 subscribers each day.

The Channel 4 News website will offer a video archive of reports from Iran, including an opportunity to catch-up on all the week's programming, as well as featuring blogs from the Channel 4 News team and from Iranian. Farsi is the fourth most common language amongst bloggers and the net provides a different kind of connection with Iranians, in and out of their country.

Iran Tests Washington's Limits

The Power and Interest News Report:

Iran's recent uncompromising stance over its nuclear research program testifies to Tehran's assessment that the United States does not have the leverage to prevent it from pursuing its aggressive nuclear policy. READ MORE

For instance, in late 2003 and in early 2004, when the policy of France, Germany and the United Kingdom did not support isolating Iran, Tehran attempted to work with the Europeans in order to provide them with the political ammunition to distance their policy from the more hard line one of the United States. However, in recent weeks, despite being isolated by the Europeans, the Iranians have continued down the path of controlling the nuclear fuel cycle, even in the face of being referred to the U.N. Security Council.

As PINR stated in March 2004, "Tehran agreed to the additional [N.P.T.] protocol not because it planned on giving up its uranium enrichment program, but because it considered signing the protocol to be the best available route toward that program." Indeed, since the start of the debate over Iran's nuclear research program, Tehran has refused to back down on its stance of controlling the nuclear fuel cycle. The strategy behind this desire is what PINR described in August 2003: "[Iran] can continue its research into peaceful nuclear energy all the while preparing for a possible day when it could quickly develop its first nuclear weapons and become a nuclear-armed state." By controlling the nuclear fuel cycle, Iran will be in a better position to add a military component to its nuclear energy program.

Until recently, Iran has been careful not to isolate itself from the international community. However, the difficulties encountered by the U.S. in Iraq have convinced Tehran that it is unlikely that Washington will take noteworthy military or even economic action against Iran. The U.S. military is overburdened by the ongoing insurgency in Iraq, making a realistic ground invasion of Iran improbable. While strategic air strikes are certainly an option, it is unlikely that such strikes would destroy completely Iran's nuclear research program. Furthermore, an actual attack on its facilities would probably hasten Iran's drive toward nuclear weapons, similar to the effect that Israel's 1981 strike on the Osirak reactor in Iraq had on Baghdad. Highlighting this strategic assessment, Iranian Deputy Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi was recently quoted by Iran's state-run Fars news agency as saying that "a military confrontation with Iran is impossible and unfeasible, and they [the West] are fully aware of it." [See: "Iran's Bid for Regional Power: Assets and Liabilities"]

Additionally, an attack on Iran could cause further instability in Iraq and in the region. In Iraq, Iran has influence over various Shi'a militias. It has been assessed that bomb making materials have moved from Iran into Iraq. Shi'a leader Moqtada al-Sadr -- who commands a sizeable militia, known as the Mehdi Army -- has already announced publicly that he would support Iran in case of a conflict with the U.S. Iran has even threatened publicly its ability to cause further instability in Iraq. For instance, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, recently said, "If these countries [the United States and E.U.-3] use all their means...to put pressure on Iran, Iran will use its capacity in the region," insinuating Tehran's ability to control events in Iraq.

Even if the U.S. refrains from taking military action against Iran, it also faces problems with placing economic sanctions on the country. Because the bulk of Iran's income derives from its energy resources, effective sanctions will have to target Iran's energy exports. It cannot be expected that China will cease cooperation in the energy sphere with Iran, and it is also difficult to imagine the United States and the European Union moving ahead with an economic sanctions regime that also includes Iran's energy exports. Energy prices are already at very high levels, putting strain on the global economy. Economic sanctions on Iran would increase these prices, especially with all of the instability in the energy markets caused by the rhetoric from Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, the social unrest in Nigeria, the gas shutoff by Russia, the attacks on pipelines in Iraq and the recent Islamist attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities.

Therefore, the preceding factors explain why Tehran's current strategy is to push the limits of the United States over the nuclear issue. Tehran does not believe that Washington will take effective action against it, provided that Iran does not take any drastic steps that would provoke a mandatory response from the United States. Look for Iran to continue its current policy, buying as much time as possible to pursue its nuclear ambitions and move closer toward the technology and resources necessary to add a military dimension to its nuclear research program.

As Crisis Brews, Iran Hits Bumps in Atomic Path

William J. Broad and David E. Sanger, The New York Times:

When Iran defiantly cut the locks and seals on its nuclear enrichment plants in January and restarted its effort to manufacture atomic fuel, it forced the world to confront a momentous question: How long will it be before Tehran has the ability to produce a bomb that would alter the balance of power in the Middle East? READ MORE

Iran's claims that it is racing forward with enrichment have created an air of crisis as the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency prepares to meet Monday in Vienna before the United Nations Security Council takes up the Iran file for possible penalties.

Yet behind the sense of immediate alarm lies a more complex picture of Iran's nuclear potential. Interviews with many of the world's leading nuclear analysts and a review of technical assessments show that Iran continues to wrestle with serious problems that have slowed its nuclear ambitions for more than two decades.

Obstacles, the experts say, remain at virtually every step on the atomic road. And the most significant, they say, involve the two most technically challenging aspects of the process — converting uranium ore to a toxic gas and, especially, spinning that gas into enriched atomic fuel.

According to the analysts, the Iranians need to do repairs and build new machines at a prototype plant before they can begin enriching even modest quantities of uranium. And then, for a decade, they would have to mass produce 100 centrifuges a week to fill the cavernous industrial enrichment halls at Natanz. What is more, the gas meant to feed those machines is plagued by impurities.

The perception gap was underscored in February when Tehran issued a stark warning. By late this year, Iranian officials said, they would begin installing nearly 3,000 centrifuges at the giant Natanz plant, buried deep underground to withstand attack. That many centrifuges, international inspectors knew, could make fuel for up to 10 nuclear warheads every year.

In Washington and Europe, the announcement was dismissed as an empty boast. "Maybe they can move that fast," said a senior American official who tracks Iran's program but who declined to be named because it is an intelligence matter. "But they would need lots of help, luck and prayer."

Tehran maintains that it has every right to master the atomic basics in pursuit of a peaceful program of nuclear power. But more and more countries have come to view that as a cover story.

Estimates of just when Iran might acquire a nuclear weapon range from alarmist views of only a few months to roughly 15 years. American intelligence agencies say it will take 5 to 10 years for Iran to manufacture the fuel for its first atomic bomb. Most forecasters acknowledge that secret Iranian advances or black market purchases could produce a technological surprise.

Conservative forecasts often take into account not only the technical difficulties but also a political judgment: that Tehran will run for the finish line — making its first bomb — only when it can rapidly produce a large arsenal.

A further uncertainty is defining the exact point at which Iran's nuclear program would become an unstoppable threat. While most analysts identify the greatest danger as when Iran can produce nuclear fuel — the hardest part of the bomb venture, more difficult than designing a warhead — others, particularly the Israelis, say the tipping point may come earlier, when Tehran has accumulated a critical mass of atomic knowledge.

For all the bluster and anxiety of the moment, Iran's atomic history is a conundrum of delay: given its wealth of atomic scientists and oil revenues, why was Tehran unable to succeed years ago?

After all, it took only three years for the United States to build the first atom bomb. It took Pakistan and North Korea, poor by Western standards, roughly a decade to get enough material for their first nuclear devices.

Iran, by most estimates, has been moving toward the same objective for at least two decades.

Some of Iran's nuclear troubles can be traced to wavering political commitment by mullahs more interested in creating a theocracy than unlocking the secrets of the atom. And many top scientists fled after the Islamic revolution of 1979.

But the United States created other obstacles. In the 1990's, it pressured Russia, China and other nations to end deals that would have given the Iranian program a jump-start. Some of those maneuvers were covert; some played out in the press.

"In retrospect, we impeded a lot more of their progress than we knew," said Robert J. Einhorn, a central player in nuclear diplomacy in the Clinton administration and the early days of the Bush administration.

In Washington and around the world, assessments of Iran's technological maturity have driven deliberations over what to do. American and Israeli planners have quietly debated the possibility and the risks of military strikes, including whether they would be more effective soon or only after Iran has built a much larger infrastructure.

At least publicly, though, the Bush administration has followed a different strategy than it did with Iraq. After the failure to discover weapons of mass destruction there, President Bush has never argued that Iran poses an imminent threat, and his aides have called for diplomacy.

"There are still certain techniques and pieces of know-how that we do not believe that they have," Sean McCormack, the State Department spokesman, told reporters last month. That, he said, is "why we are focusing so much energy on trying to prevent Iran from achieving those key final capabilities."

Most experts focus on uranium and ignore Iran's work on plutonium, another bomb fuel, judging it as even further from fruition. Still, nuclear analysts warn against complacency.

"They do have serious problems," said Mohammad Sahimi, a chemical engineer at the University of Southern California who left Iran in 1978. "But we've made mistakes in underestimating the strength of science in Iran and the ingenuity they show in working with whatever crude design they get their hands on."

Centrifuges and Uranium

By all accounts, the oldest and most daunting problem involves centrifuges — temperamental machines whose rotors can spin extraordinarily fast to enrich uranium. After two decades of effort, Iran is barely out of the starting gate.

All uranium is not equal. One form, uranium 235, easily splits in two, or fissions, in bursts of atomic energy that power nuclear reactors and bombs. Its slightly heavier cousin, uranium 238, does not.

But since uranium 235 accounts for less than 1 percent of all uranium, engineers use centrifuges to separate the two and concentrate the rare form. Uranium enriched to about 4 percent uranium 235 can fuel most reactors; to 90 percent, atom bombs.

In 1987, the Iranians secretly began buying drawings and parts for centrifuges from Abdul Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani nuclear expert who operated the world's biggest nuclear black market. International inspectors say the deals eventually included parts for about 500 primitive used centrifuges.

Tehran, apparently unhappy with their quality, turned to Moscow. In early 1995, it made a secret deal to buy an entire plant of centrifuges — typically tens of thousands of the spinning machines linked together to slowly increase the level of enrichment.

But after the Clinton administration persuaded Moscow to back out, Iran accelerated its secret drive to copy Dr. Khan's centrifuges. It also started building the huge enrichment plant near Natanz, in central Iran. The pilot factory there was to house 1,000 centrifuges; the main plant would shelter 50,000 machines underground.

In August 2002, Iranian dissidents revealed the existence of the Natanz site, beginning the current confrontation with the West. The next year, Iran agreed to suspend work while negotiating with Europe over the program's fate.

But when operators shut down an experimental cascade of 164 centrifuges at Natanz, about 50 of them broke or crashed, according to a January report by David Albright and Corey Hinderstein of the Institute for Science and International Security, a private group in Washington.

Now, the report said, Iran must replace and repair the broken machines and prepare the cascade for operation. Then comes the really hard part: if all goes well, the Iranians must mass-produce thousands of centrifuges and learn to run them in concert, like a large orchestra.

Iran is also struggling to turn concentrated uranium ore, or yellowcake, into uranium hexafluoride, the toxic gas fed into the centrifuges for enrichment. Such conversion is done at a site on the outskirts of Isfahan.

Iran began the conversion effort in the early 1990's, asking China to help build the complex. But in 1997, the Clinton administration persuaded Beijing to stop the deal. The Iranians got blueprints but little else. So they started building on their own.

"From what I saw, everything looked like local manufacturing except for some gauges," said Gary S. Samore, who ran the National Security Council's nonproliferation office during the Clinton administration and who traveled to Isfahan in 2005.

Iran, which tried to hide most of its nuclear sites, voluntarily revealed Isfahan to international inspectors in 2000. But the plant encountered problems during its first runs in early 2004, its output laced with impurities, in particular molybdenum, a silvery element often found in uranium ore.

The contamination, experts say, can ruin delicate centrifuges, reducing their efficiency and cutting short their lifetimes.

The Iranians are working hard to solve the problem. Mark Hibbs of Nuclear Fuel, an industry publication, who broke the molybdenum story, said most experts believed that the Iranians would ultimately succeed. British intelligence, he said, put the time needed at a year and a half, Israeli analysts at two or three months.

Houston G. Wood III, a centrifuge expert at the University of Virginia, said the Iranians might simply learn to cope. "If you're smart enough," he said, "you could probably get by, maybe with decreased efficiency."

Western officials worry that the conversion has a secret side, and that it is run by a military group seeking to integrate the nuclear program with the design of missiles that could deliver a weapon. In a Jan. 31 report, the I.A.E.A. revealed that it had documentary evidence of a shadowy operation, the Green Salt Project. Tehran dismissed the charge of a hidden military effort as baseless and later called the Green Salt documents forgeries.

Estimating a Bomb's Birth

Atomic forecasts are driven largely by assessments of technological maturity, sometimes colored by judgments of the risks of guessing wrong.

That may explain the gulf between Israel's claim that the world has as little as six months before the "point of no return" and estimates that an Iranian warhead is many years away. .

"We live within Iranian missile range," said a senior Israeli official who has worked on the country's estimates. "Our survival depends on understanding the worst-case scenario." Thus, in the Israeli view, it would be a huge mistake to let the Iranians figure out how to clean up and enrich their uranium.

Israel cites studies like one published in October by the Strategic Studies Institute of the Army War College, "Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran." Its timeline is short, one to four years. Iran, it asserted, "lacks for nothing technologically or materially to produce it, and seems dead set on securing an option to do so."

Henry Sokolski, an editor of the report, said neither he nor anyone else could actually produce a truly accurate forecast. "A lot of people are fraudulent, making it sound like a science," he said. "It's not."

He nonetheless defended the report's estimate as reasonable, pointing to Iran's long nuclear history.

Analysts like Mr. Albright and Ms. Hinderstein of the Institute for Science and International Security put the earliest date Iran might produce a weapon at 2009. They cautioned, however, that this estimate "reflects a worst-case assessment, and thus is highly uncertain."

To date, the most comprehensive public estimate is by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, an arms analysis group in London. "If Iran threw caution to the wind," John Chipman, the institute's director, said, it might be able to make fuel for a single nuclear weapon by 2010.

Dr. Samore, who edited that report and is now at the MacArthur Foundation, said the Iranians might see political advantage in a more deliberate approach, doing nothing provocative until after 2015 or even 2020.

In his view, he said, Iran would complete the main Natanz plant, installing 50,000 centrifuges and learning to operate them. If successful, it could then enrich uranium to the low levels needed for a nuclear reactor and so comply with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Then it could rush ahead and produce enough highly enriched fuel for a nuclear arsenal in weeks or months. At full tilt, the report concluded, Natanz could annually churn out material for up to 180 warheads.

Such a "breakout" chain of events worries experts because it leaves the world little or no time to react.

Seeking a Global Strategy

The Bush administration has concluded that even if Iran stops short of assembling a weapon, its ability to produce one on short order would change the politics of the Middle East. So it has been trying, with mixed success, to devise a broader atomic blockade that would turn the unilateral, often clandestine efforts of the past into a far more global effort involving not only Europe but India, China and Russia. In theory, the meeting Monday in Vienna is a step in that direction.

But administration officials are also trying to make headway on their own. They have persuaded several of Iran's neighbors — they will not say which ones — to block Iranian cargo flights that appear headed toward North Korea or other potential nuclear suppliers. Last year, that strategy appeared to succeed in at least one case, when China intervened.

In a little-noted speech in February, Robert Joseph, an under secretary of state and one of the administration's leading hawks on Iran, described the tools of denial he was employing, from cracking down on Tehran's finances to depriving Iran of crucial technologies.

But administration officials readily acknowledge that it is next to impossible to build a leak-proof wall. In his speech, Mr. Joseph warned of the "wild card" that Iran could obtain its nuclear fuel from an outside supplier.

As much as anything, officials worry about the unknown. They note that the United States missed signs that a country was about to go nuclear with the Soviets in the 1940's, the Chinese in the 1960's, India in the 1970's and Pakistan in the 1990's.

"People always surprise us," said a senior nuclear intelligence official who is not authorized to speak publicly. "They're always a little more cunning and capable than we give them credit for."