Saturday, March 19, 2005

Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [6/13-3/19] major news events regarding Iran.

The EU3 Negotiations with Iran:
Developments in Iran's Nuclear Program:
US Policy and Iran:
Popular struggle inside of Iran:
Iran's friends outside of Iran:
Iran's Neighbors:
Middle East Experts:
DoctorZin's interview:
  • I was interviewed on Right Talk Radio's program, the Inquisition. To hear the broadcast click here.
And finally, The Quote of the Week:
US Secretary of State Condolezza Rice said about Iran:

"...we don't want to do anything that legitimizes this government -- the mullahs -- in a direct way. And so there isn't any indication here of "warming of relations."

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 06:00:00 PM  

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.19.2005:

Iranian Dissident Due in America as Protests Rise
Eli Lake, writing for the NY Sun, reports that the controversial Iranian dissident, Mohsen Sazegara is coming to the US from the UK to push US lawmakers to support his version of a referendum in Iran.

Dr. Iman Foroutan provides us with his concerns .

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 02:50:00 PM  

A revolutionary change

The American Thinker:
Each political revolution is unique, but in all revolutions the decisive moment comes when the crowd surges and the dictator turns to his military leaders and gives the order to shoot. If the order is obeyed and the army shoots into the crowd, there’s a good chance the revolution will fail and the dictator will survive, at least for a while. But if the order to shoot isn’t obeyed – it’s over. READ MORE

With each passing year, it becomes less likely that the order to shoot will be obeyed – which means it’s becoming more likely that revolutions against dictatorships will succeed. This is precisely what has already happened in Georgia and Ukraine. The question now is whether this also will happen in Lebanon, in Syria, in Iran, and in suddenly-volatile Kyrgyzstan. And will it happen – down the road a bit – in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and – still further down the road – perhaps in Russia, China and even in North Korea.

There are several reasons why the generals are growing ever more reluctant to shoot into the crowds, including the presence of television cameras and the very real fear of one day being hauled before the International Court of Justice as a war criminal. But the overriding reason why the generals are growing reluctant to shoot is this: they don’t want to shoot their own children.

The Power Elite

Simply put, today’s dictatorships aren’t what they used to be. Back in the old days, a dictator held power by creating an elite, or by winning leadership of an elite created by his predecessors, and then keeping this elite hermetically sealed off from the population at large. Members of this elite included the political leadership, of course, but also leaders of the dictatorship’s military and security services.

In the days of the Soviet Union, for example, this elite was called the nomenclatura, and if you were lucky enough to be a member life was good. You lived in a restricted neighborhood or housing complex whose inhabitants were also members of the nomenclatura, your health care was provided at private hospitals staffed by highly-trained physicians and equipped with the world’s most advanced medical technologies, your children were enrolled in private schools, your family vacationed at resorts open only to nomenclatura families, and your wives had access to stores barred to members of the to the general public and stocked with all sorts of goodies from beef, to caviar, to fancy faucets for the bathroom sink to household items such as babies’ disposable diapers not available in local shops.

It is much the same in other dictatorships. Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq in just this way through the Ba’athist elite. Bashir Assad controls Syria through the Alawite elite, and in Saudi Arabia it’s the royal family. Hosni Mubarek relies on Egypt’s elite to keep control of his country. And the structure of China’s elite resembles that of the Soviet Union’s nomenclatura.

Smart dictators -- dumb ones don’t last very long -- all understand the first rule of totalitarian survival: take extra-good care of the guys with the guns. After all, if push ever comes to shove, it will be the generals who actually defend the regime; who have hands-on control of the weapons and the troops to crush any revolution that might arise. That is why being a senior military officer in a dictatorship has always been a ticket to the good life – the best housing, the best medical care, the best possible education for the kids and guaranteed jobs upon graduation to secure their own membership in the elite.

And in virtually every dictatorship, smart generals take the same very clever step to protect the capital from a revolutionary mob: they bring in troops from as far away as possible. Soviet generals, for instance, used troops from non-Russian-speaking republics of the Soviet Union, such as Uzbekistan, to guard Moscow. This minimized the chances that the young soldiers who actually would be doing the shooting would know anyone in the crowd – or even understand what the demonstrators were shouting. China’s generals do the same thing; when the students demonstrated in Tiananmen Square in 1989 it was soldiers whose families lived far from Beijing who drove those tanks that ran over the kids.

What’s happening now is that the hermetic seal around the elite, which has been drying out for years, is finally starting to crumble.

In today’s world of satellite television, the Internet and cell phones it’s become impossible for even the most vicious and determined dictatorship to fully block the flow of information. George Orwell was perhaps the 20th century’s most astute observer of totalitarianism, but in his great novel Nineteen Eighty-Four he had it precisely backwards when he predicted that technology would give government a monopoly on information. In fact, technology has put information beyond the control of government forever.

What Ordinary People Know

As a result, oppressed citizens of every dictatorship have a better idea than ever before about what’s going on in the world. The grown-ups tend to focus on political developments and – unlike so many intellectuals here in the West – they have quickly figured out that people live better in countries whose governments combine democracy with free enterprise. And while the grown-ups grow more and more angry with their own governments, their kids are tuning-in to the emerging global culture. They know which television series are hits in the US, which rock bands top the charts in London and Tokyo, which style jeans are in this year and which are out, and they probably know more about which Hollywood movie stars are divorcing their spouses and running off together than do any of you who are reading this essay. And, like young people everywhere, their overwhelming desire is simply to be a part of it all.

And, guess what? The children of the elite also want to be a part of the global youth culture; to watch the hit movies, listen to the coolest music, wear the right clothes. Remaining hermetically sealed off from all this, and eventually building careers in their parents’ world, just isn’t something that appeals to them. Rather like the children of so many American industrialists, they have no interest in joining the family business; starting work at the old man’s auto-transmission factory and eventually taking it over may be the sensible thing to do, but it’s also very boring. Instead, a lot of industrialists’ kids want to go do their own thing – to study abroad, to travel, to pursue careers in the media or to launch their own commercial ventures.

The generals’ kids are no different. They want to jump into the big world and carve out their own niches. And because this requires the Western combination of democracy and free enterprise, the dictatorship that has given them so many privileges is standing in their way. This is why so many children of the elite were right out there in the middle of the crowds we saw on television in Tbilisi and in Kiev. To his great credit Georgia’s falling dictator, Eduard Shevardnadze, never gave the order to shoot, in part because he was at heart a decent man and in part because he knew the order wouldn’t be obeyed. In Ukraine the order to shoot was given by Leonid Kuchma as his miserable regime started to collapse, but the generals ignored it and the revolution ran its course.

Human Factors Matter

In the intelligence business, it’s always a mistake to focus exclusively on political and military issues, and to ignore the human factor. No one understood this better than President Reagan’s great Director of Central Intelligence, Bill Casey. I remember one evening when we were sitting in Bill’s office, putting the finishing touches on a National Intelligence Estimate projecting how the Soviet Union might respond to the increasing pressure that the U.S. was putting on the Kremlin around the world – our support for anti-communist insurgencies, installation of medium-range missiles in Western Europe to counter the Soviet SS-20s, and of course President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative.

“I’ll bet it isn’t much fun to be a member of the Politburo right now,” Bill mused, leaning back in his big blue-leather chair and idly bending a paper clip back and forth. “Things really started going their way once Carter got in, and they figured by the 1980s they’d have us nailed. But it hasn’t worked out that way, and the strain on these guys right now must be enormous. I bet they’re dead tired after one of those six-hour Politburo meetings, and when they climb into their limos they’re not thinking about how to stick it to us in Nicaragua. They’re thinking about getting to their dachas and pouring themselves a drink.”

It wasn’t a coincidence that the Reagan strategy for winning the Cold War involved a whole range of initiatives designed explicitly to demoralize Soviet leaders and make them realize that taking on the US would require a lot more energy than they had to give.

Now think about the generals in today’s remaining dictatorships. They cannot be having much fun, or feeling very confident about the future. George W. Bush is secure in his second term, and he’s made freedom around the world his personal mission. Georgia and Ukraine have had their revolutions, and Afghanistan and Iraq are moving steadily toward democracy. Crowds are surging in Lebanon, Syria looks to be in Washington’s cross-hairs, and demonstrations have been taking place every day, for months, in Iran. Even little Kyrgyzstan is starting to come apart, and over in The Hague a score of Serbian generals are on trial for their lives. Throughout the world, the very idea of revolution is in the air. This is the 21st century, and ordinary people everywhere understand that the combination of democracy and free enterprise is the only thing that works. They see it, and they want it.

It would be foolish to suggest that everything has changed, and that the generals and the demonstrators will all be sitting in a circle, holding hands and singing It’s a Small, Small World. There is still the very real possibility of horrific violence in Lebanon, Iran, or in any of the countries where trouble is brewing. But it would be even more foolish to believe that nothing has changed, and that the dictatorships that were built in the 20th century will survive for long in the 21st.

It is late at night in Damascus, or Teheran, or Cairo, or maybe even Moscow, and the general is sitting in his easy chair with his tie loosened, his shoes off and perhaps with a drink in his hand. He is exhausted, but he cannot sleep. All day he has been reading reports of growing unrest, of strikes, of demonstrations against the regime he is sworn to defend. It is getting out of hand, and sooner rather than later he will be given the order to shoot. Scenes of the resulting carnage will be played and re-played on televisions around the world – including the one in his wife’s bedroom. And even if the revolution is stopped, surely it will start again before long and even more blood will flow through the streets. The general finishes his drink, turns out the lamp beside his chair, walks slowly toward his bedroom – and realizes that his two teen-agers aren’t home…..

Herbert E. Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council. His DVD on The Siege of Western Civilization (www.siegeofwesternciv.com) has become an international best-seller.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 02:42:00 PM  

Iranian Policewomen Complete Training Course

MemriTV.org:
The following are excerpts from a training course for Iranian policewomen. Channel 2 of the Iranian TV aired this on March 12, 2005:

Newscaster:The policewomen are very serious. Take a look.

Reporter: In the graduation ceremony of the Iranian policewomen training course, they demonstrated climbing down from heights, arresting armed robbers, dismantling bombs and other skills. They demonstrated their capability to carry out their duty.

To View Video Click Here.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 02:40:00 PM  

Hizbollah Vows to Keep Weapons, Syria Withdraws

Nadim Ladki, Reuters:
Pro-Syrian Hizbollah guerrillas will keep their weapons despite U.S. calls to disarm and Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon, the group's chief said on Wednesday.

The uncompromising stance on weapons for fighters of the Syrian and Iranian-backed Hizbollah, who helped force Israel to end its 22-year occupation of Lebanon in 2000, was set out by the group's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah.

"I'm holding on to the weapons of the resistance because I think the resistance ... is the best formula to protect Lebanon and to deter any Israeli aggression," Nasrallah said in a live interview with Hizbollah's al-Manar television. READ MORE

Nasrallah made clear Hizbollah's weapons would be used only against Israel and not internally in Lebanon, which was torn by a 1975-90 civil war, and called again for dialogue between the various political groups in Lebanon.

"Hizbollah's arms will not be used domestically. Their only role is against Israel," he said.

Nasrallah's comments came as President Bush tried to clarify remarks in which he left the door open for Hizbollah to have a political role in Lebanon if it disarmed.

Opposition U.S. Democrats noted after Bush's Tuesday comments that Hizbollah was responsible for the Beirut bombing in 1983 that killed more than 200 U.S. servicemen.

"Hizbollah is on the terrorist list for a reason, and remains on the terrorist list for a reason. Our position's not changed on Hizbollah," Bush said in Washington on Wednesday.

Nasrallah said: "We are ready to remain a terrorist group in the eyes of George Bush to the end of time but we are not ready to stop protecting our country, out people and their blood and their honor."

Bush repeated U.S. demands that Syria withdraw all troops and intelligence personnel from Lebanon to allow for free elections in May.

Nasrallah also said that between 20 and 30 Syrian workers had been killed in anti-Syrian attacks since the Feb. 14 assassination of ex-premier Rafik al-Hariri, which Lebanon's opposition blamed on Syria. Damascus has denied any role.

"I have information that 20 to 30 Syrian workers have been killed recently ... This is a disgrace," he said.

Tens of thousands of Syrian workers have fled back to Syria since Hariri's death.

Hizbollah brought hundreds of thousands of people onto the streets last week for pro-Syrian rallies, showing its muscle in Lebanon, where it has parliament members and runs charities.

Witnesses said Syrian intelligence officers moved out of their Beirut headquarters in the seafront Ramlet al-Baida district. A small bulldozer demolished two guard posts while trucks loaded office equipment and drove away.

Syrian forces have almost completed the first phase of a withdrawal from Lebanon announced 11 days ago. More than 4,000 soldiers returned home last week, while 2,000 have redeployed eastwards to the Bekaa Valley, Lebanese security sources said.

Almost all intelligence offices across north Lebanon and the mountains east of Beirut were also vacated overnight, security sources said. They said 150 to 200 officers had moved to eastern Lebanon or returned directly to Syria.

But in Washington, State Department spokesman Adam Ereli questioned whether Syrian agents were actually leaving Lebanon. Asked if the United States was encouraged at reports of the agents' pullout, Ereli told reporters: "To where?"

He said "it's kind of hard to know" if all the intelligence agents were being moved back to Syria.

Syria's often feared intelligence apparatus has been a key element in its political and military influence on Lebanon since its troops first intervened early in Lebanon's civil war.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 02:27:00 PM  

US policy options on Iran, Take 2

Dan Darling, WindsofChange.net:

I received a great deal of feedback (positive or otherwise) on my Understanding US Policy Options On Iran, including an apparent mention in the Washington Monthly of all places (I'm not complaining, it's just that that's the last place I expected my concerns to be noted) with a lot of people asking me what I think about the US decision to offer Iran membership in the WTO as well as airline parts in return for ditching their nuclear program.

Well, ask and you shall receive ...

READ MORE

As I noted at the time:

Do we get any actual tangible guarantees to that effect [that Iran is willing to discontinue its nuclear program], or do we just get a signed document and trust in the good will of Khamenei and the ayatollahs? If so, is such an agreement worth the paper that it's printed on?

... Okay, so basically the Euros made a series of requests for us to help them out and Bush seems to be weighing his options as far as what we can do to assist them on the off-chance that the Europeans can persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions ...

... I'm not opposed to this whole idea that there has to be some give and take in the negotiating process with Europe, that's how politics works after all. What I'm a lot more fuzzy on is just what Europe is willing to give up in order to ensure that Iran doesn't becoming a nuclear power ...

... If that's the case, then my guess is that the administration is considering joining the European approach with the opinion that it is likely to fail. This also seems to imply that the Euros are willing to bend if the issue comes to the UNSC if the US bends on the issue of joining the talks - they may be hoping that Russia or China vetoes any UNSC sanctions, as Bergner noted - making this more on less a quid pro quo ...

The Euro approach is good as a stalling tactic while we figure out our strategy, not as a serious solution in of itself.

These opinions remain pretty much unchanged and you'll forgive my skepticism at taking the mullahs' claims of desiring peaceful coexistence with the West seriously when they're putting the British boats they captured last year on display for the faithful. The whole negotiating process between the has a certain Groundhog Day quality to it that Michael Ledeen first noted back in November:

The European "solution" to the threat of Iranian atomic bombs bids fair to join the "peace process" as the most boffo running gag in the history of show biz. Every few months, the elegantly dressed diplomatic wizards from London, Paris, and Berlin race across a continent or two to meet with Iranians dressed in turbans and gowns, and after some hours of alleged hard work, they emerge with a new agreement, just like their more numerous counterparts engaged in the peace negotiations. The main difference is that the peace-process deals seemed to last for several months, while the schemes hammered out with the mullahs rarely last more than a week or two. Otherwise, it's the same sort of vaudeville routine: a few laughs, with promises of more to come.

Indeed. And one of the reasons that I think we're willing to engage in this dubious song-and-dance is that we're still waiting on the results of the preemptive review concerning US intelligence on Iran due at the end of the month that seems geared in large part to avoid the intelligence problems that occurred with respect to Iraq.

In addition, the articles that have come out since the US shifted its stance with respect to Iran answered one of the more important concerns I had with the shift, namely what Europe is willing to give up. According to press reports, the Euros are willing to refer Iran to the UNSC for sanctions in the event that diplomacy fails, suggesting that they might be willing to part with their economic ties to the mullahs in the name of nuclear non-proliferation. I'm still not entirely convinced that there isn't a fix in here (China or Russia could veto the sanctions, for example), but it's always nice to hear that the course to which we have pledged ourselves isn't entirely a one-way street when it comes to the need for concessions. Next step: defining with the Euros the specific circumstances that constitute the failure of diplomacy with respect to Iran.

And for those interested in tracking the day-to-day developments with respect to Iran, I highly recommend Regime Change Iran's daily news briefs.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 02:18:00 PM  

Now Rouz, The Struggle of Day and Night

By Abdol-Hosseyn Zarrinkoub (IPS):
All Iranians, whatever their religious beliefs, language or origins and wherever they live, are strongly attached to Now Rouz, meaning New Year. READ MORE

This festival, which does not feature in the Islamic lunar calendar, begins the solar year at the spring equinox, 21 March. Lasting around two weeks, it is the longest of all Iranian feasts and its rites are the richest in symbolism. The ceremonial includes customs from pre-Islamic festivals and rites introduced by people of non-Iranian origin, such as the Jews, and even borrowings from rites practised elsewhere.

Two weeks before Now Rouz, each household traditionally grows a plate of sprouts of wheat, barley or lentils as omens of a good harvest or as tokens of fruitfulness in the future.

This significant ritual is followed by two important celebrations which mark the closing days of the year and prepare for Now Rouz proper. At nightfall on "Ember Wednesday", or chahar shambeh souri, meaning the Wednesday festivities, a bonfire of brambles and other dry plants is lit. Men and women, old and young leap over the flames shouting "Fire that burns! Fire! Fire! May your red come to me and my yellow go to you!" The light of the flames symbolizes the Sun. By challenging the setting Sun to shine more brightly and to compete with the fire, they urge it to throw off its winter torpor.

Once the fire has gone out, earthenware pots and vases filled with water, and a variety of other objects, are hurled from the top of the house to shouts of "dard-o bala! dard-o bala!" ("Pain and unhappiness!"). Wednesday being traditionally considered as a day of ill-omen, in this way misfortune is averted and unhappiness symbolically banished from the house.

On the same day, people try to foresee the future. The omens are read in various ways. Women who want a child, girls who have not yet found a husband, men who are hoping to conclude a successful business deal or even to get married, go out into the streets or stay behind closed doors eavesdropping on conversations between people they do not know. They interpret the words they overhear as omens of the future and make wishes and pray to try to ward off misfortune. Another custom is for women and children in disguise, their faces hidden, to go out into the streets at twilight carrying an empty receptacle and bang on doors with a spoon. They say nothing but go on knocking until someone opens a door and gives them a present.
Persian Norouz

The second end-of-year celebration, the "Day of Reckoning" (rouz-e barat) is the Iranian day of the dead. On the last Thursday of the year alms and gifts are distributed at the cemetery: money, food, halva or new clothes are given so that the poor can celebrate the feast. The house is cleaned from top to bottom-this is a vestige of a pre-Islamic festival. In this way the living seek to pay their debts to the departed and attract the benevolence of their ancestors.

The "spring cleaning" (khaneh takani), done before New Year, is more than just a cleaning operation. From cellar to attic, from carpets to bedding, everything must be made as good as new. A new life is dawning and the house must be symbolically purified and thoroughly cleansed as if it were a human body, by being carefully washed and by wearing new clothes.

For the New Year ceremonial, the plate of sprouting grain and the tray of “haft sin”, meaning seven sins, --from the Iranian letter “S”-- must be placed on the Now Rouz cloth in front of a mirror lit by as many candles as there are members of the household, a copy of the Qor'an, the Muslim’s holly book, a bowl of milk, a bowl of yoghurt, and gifts of coins.

The tray of the "seven sin" contains seven products whose names in Persian, Turkish or Arabic begin with the letter sin, the initial letter of the Persian words for green (sabz) and white (sefid), colours which symbolize respectively the renewal of springtime and the purity that wards off demons. Today the tradition has changed: everyone can choose seven symbols representing renewal, creation, abundance and wealth. The number 7 is a sacred number, as it was for the Babylonians and the ancient Hebrews, linked to the idea of creation which runs through all the symbolism of Now Rouz.

While they are waiting for the New Year to begin, the parents and other older people pray that the year will be propitious and recite the Qor'an to bring blessings and happiness to the family. Immediately afterwards, sweetmeats are eaten. Their taste presages a happy year.

On New Year's Eve, fireworks are set off in the courtyard of the house or on the terrace. They symbolize the combat between dark, gloomy winter and bright, joyful spring; the victory of fire over darkness, a re-enactment of the moment when the world of shadows is attacked by the world of light, the moment of Creation.

On the morning of the Big Day the children are given gold coins, cakes and hard-boiled eggs that have been painted, decorated and wrapped as gifts. They have been cooked in a brew of onion peel, walnut shells or straw so that they are coloured green, brown or yellow. They symbolize the renewal of the world and they are a pledge of fruitfulness.

The first thirteen days of the year are a time of rejoicing. Children think only of play and adults of visiting each other. The real purpose of these joyful days is to rediscover an original state of purity and equality. Relations with friends and neighbours begin anew. People visit everyone, the mighty and the humble.

The period of mourning for those who died the previous year is ended. The straightjacket of convention is broken, though indulgence in licentiousness is not encouraged. Distances due to social rank are abolished. Everyone, rich and poor, enjoys the same kind of food and recreations and wears brightly coloured new clothes. Work stops in fields and factories. All the rites performed at this time look back to a lost paradise, the original earthly paradise in which the divine breath infuses humankind with a feeling of spiritual fraternity and equality.
Iranian Noruz

On the Sizdah bedar, or thirteenth day outside, the mount of the demon of cold is driven from the city. The cereals that have sprouted in the plate are thrown into the river after being examined by the elders in an attempt to predict the weather during the coming year.

This day inaugurates a happy New Year. Friends and neighbours usually organize a picnic in the countryside at which noodle soup or dishes of rice in sauce are eaten. People go and see the streams and rivers swollen with melted snow. The young play traditional games and sports, and the girls weave together fresh herbs, singing as they do so in a low voice: Sizdah bedar - sal-e degar - khaneye shouhar - bacheh be baqal, meaning The thirteenth day, next year, at the husband's house, a baby in my arms!". No conflict should be initiated on that day.

In all the rites of Now Rouz, whatever their origin, there is one constantly recurring feature: the conflict between light and darkness, in keeping with the old Zoroastrian dualism. It is no coincidence that legend should attribute the invention of this feast to Jamshid or Feridun, legendary kings and divine heroes who triumphed over the forces of darkness.

But if Islam has kept up this Zoroastrian feast, it is because of the role it plays in the stabilization of the fiscal year and also because of its jovial and lively ceremonies which were highly esteemed at the courts of the caliphs and the sultans.

The singing and music which always mark Now Rouz explain why the sufis are interested in this festival.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 01:44:00 PM  

Iranian Dissident Due in America as Protests Rise

Eli Lake, The NY Sun:
A key opponent of the government of Iran will be arriving here this month to urge American support for the idea of holding a popular referendum in Iran on whether the country should remain a theocracy.

The visit from Mohsen Sazegara comes as demonstrations in Iran have cropped up during the country's festival of fire before the Persian new year, featuring some revelers shouting slogans in favor of President Bush.

With America's Iran policy torn between support for European negotiations over the Islamic republic's nuclear program and the president's support for Iran's democracy movement, Mr. Sazegara's efforts could tilt the White House closer to embracing regime change there. Mr. Bush on Wednesday suggested that is what he would like to see when he said, "I believe that the Iranian people ought to be allowed to freely discuss opinions, read a free press, have free votes, be able to choose amongst political parties. I believe Iran should adopt democracy."

Mr. Sazegara, who shares this vision for Iran, argues that the best to way realize it is by calling on the regime to allow a free vote to change Iran's constitution to make the country a secular state, no longer controlled by unelected clerics. So far this movement has gained support from diverse corners of Iran's opposition, including monarchists, reformists, and student organizations. READ MORE

Mr. Sazegara, who has lived in London for nearly a year, arrived in England after spending time in an Iranian jail for his opposition activities. In a telephone interview yesterday with The New York Sun, Mr. Sazegara said he is planning to push lawmakers and administration officials to support an international investigation of Iran's role in overseas assassinations such as the 1992 bombing of the Berlin Mykonos restaurant, which a German court in 1997 found was directed by Iranian authorities.

"There is a U.N. committee that has started an investigation into the murder of Rafik Hariri," he said. "We could have a similar committee investigating the role of Iranian leaders involved in terrorism and assassination. This would be a good signal for us."

Mr. Sazegara was a founder of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in 1979, the same organization that is widely believed to have authorized the Mykonos attack and other assassinations inside and outside of Iran such as a chain of murders in the late 1990s and the slaying of former prime minister Shapour Bakhtiar in 1991. He said the Iranian government "must answer to the nation of Iran and to the international community for what they have done."

Mr. Sazegara is scheduled to arrive here on March 29 and will take up a three-month residence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a think tank that has published an internal survey in Iran showing widespread discontent with the regime and that has close ties to the pro-Israel community.

Mr. Sazegara told the Sun yesterday that he rejected the position he took when he was an early supporter of the Islamic revolution. "It makes no difference where I do my academic work," he said. "In my opinion Iran is not the enemy of any country and we have to have good relations with all the countries in the world. The peace process is a good thing in Israel and we have to support the process and help the people of that region to live with each other."

He arrives in Washington as Persians in many cities gathered for Chaharshanbe Souri, the festival of fire where, according to Iran's official news agency, local police had to file into the streets of Tehran and use tear gas to disperse crowds. The activities, spurred by the Zoroastrian tradition, have in recent years been intertwined with protests for a regime that has discouraged and in some years made it illegal to celebrate traditional Persian holidays.

At the same time, the exiled Iranian opposition in America has been divided. Over the weekend, a group of activists gathered in Los Angeles, where some denounced the referendum movement that has been endorsed by Mr. Sazegara as well as by Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah.

Mr. Sazegara said he had no problem with any Iranians demonstrating against the government in Tehran. "I think as long as everyone agrees we need to change the structure of the regime, and that means a new regime, as long as they agree with this idea, there is nothing more to say."

Some Iranian activists have reservations about working with Mr. Sazegara because of his history with the most extremist elements of the regime. Human rights activist Ladan Boroumand told the Sun yesterday, "It's hard for me to forget what someone like Sazegara has done. But I am willing to forgive him if he is committed to these democratic principles and if he is struggling for the democratic cause and putting himself at risk. Then my personal feelings do not come before the public good."

Ms. Boroumand, like Mr. Sazegara, was an early supporter of Ayatollah Khomeini as a translator for him in Paris. She said that she distanced herself from him when she read his book and concluded "he did not believe in democratic principles." Ms. Boroumand and her sister Roya run a human rights foundation named for their father, Abdol-Rahman Boroumand, a democracy activist and lawyer who was murdered by Iranian intelligence officials in April 1991. Both also support the movement for a referendum.

The president of the Los Angeles based Iranian Jewish Public Affairs Committee, Pooya Dayanim, said yesterday, "The significance of Sazegara's presence in the United States is that it will enable Iran analysts and the U.S. government to better analyze the newly claimed unity amongst various factions of the opposition on the inside and outside."

He also said, "Sazegara's presence in the United States will also lead to a battle for the control of the referendum movement." Mr. Dayanim added that Mr. Sazegara represents the elements of the referendum movement inside Iran and for this reason may clash with those in America and Europe who have worked on it.
Dr. Iman Foroutan, one of the leaders of the united Iranian "Coalition of Liberation" which I reported on last Tuesday, sent me his observations:

Once again Mr. Sazegara seems to be talking from both sides of his mouth. In the same sentence he talks both about "change the structure of the regime" and "that means a new regime". Any reasonable person knows well that changing the structure of IRI is NOT the same as totally dismantling the regime and removing IRI from power.

The biggest flaws of Mr. Sazegara's referendum proposal are that:
a) the required pre-conditions for holding such a referendum in Iran do not exist (e.g. free press, free political parties, free campaigns);

b) the are no guarantees for holding an open and fair referendum (how can one hold a referendum to replace the regime while the agents of the same regime are in charge of the ballot boxes, in charge of security forces, in charge of counting the results)

c) there are no guarantees for implementing the results of the referendum: even if the referendum results came out to be in favor of the regime change, what is the guarantee that the Mullahs will leave office? Does one really think that Khamenei, Rafsanjani, and the rest of Mullahs will pack their suitcases and leave power just like that? We certainly do not think so.

Even if the Sazegara referendum proposal were a good faith proposal, which we sincerely doubt, it is extremely dangerous for the future of democracy in Iran. This proposal has the potential of being hijacked by IRI at numerous occasions and resulting in the legitimization of the IRI for another decade. The people of Iran do NOT wish to take that risk and they do not want anything less than the total and absolute removal of this brutal dangerous regime.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 12:27:00 PM  

Iran-freedom group launched

WorldNetDaily.com:
A group aimed at assisting Iranians who seek freedom from the cleric-led Islamic regime has been launched in Washington.

The Iran Freedom Foundation, a non-profit educational organization, says it will seek to educate the public about "the dire social, political and economic situation under Iran’s mullahs." READ MORE

The IFF was established by American and Iranian scholars, professionals, philanthropists and human rights advocates who believe support by the international community for democratic efforts in Iran is critical.

"We have created the foundation in order to support opposition groups inside Iran," said Jerome Corsi, IFF spokesman.

Corsi's upcoming book, "Atomic Iran: How the Terrorist Regime Bought the Bomb and American Politicians," will serve as part of the IFF's information efforts, which will include an interactive website, original news service and multimedia projects.

The IFF says it want to "create an atmosphere in which previously silenced opposition voices can voice their opinions against the repressive regime."

Iran, under an Islamic regime since the revolution of 1979, recently has come under international scrutiny over the nature of its nuclear enrichment program, which Washington long has alleged is a cover for nuclear weapons production. Iran insists its nuclear program is used to produce alternative energy for its burgeoning population.

Over 70 percent of Iranians are under the age of 30, and while most support democratic reform in the Islamic theocracy, they have very few outlets to express their opinions. The United Nations says Iran has one of the world's worst human rights records.

As part of a crackdown on opposition voices in 2004, the Iranian mullahs jailed several political dissidents and closed down websites, weblogs and newspapers that expressed views against the government.

Iranians recently staged "monster demonstrations" in 11 provinces and 37 cities in which many thousands were arrested, according to Iran expert Michael Ledeen, writing in National Review Online.

Ledeen, an American Enterprise Institute fellow, said one of his sources in Iran reported more than 30,000 were arrested in one demonstration.

The most dramatic events, he said, took place in Shiraz, where the demonstrators directed a chant toward Washington: "Bush, you told us to rise up, and so we have. Why don’t you act?"

Ledeen noted "the president publicly promised the Iranian people the United States would support them if they acted to win their own freedom, and the Iranians are now calling on Bush to make good on that promise."

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 12:16:00 PM  

Militia Commander Escapes from Death

SMCCDI (Information Service):
Militia Commander, Ali-Reza Beigi, escaped from death during his helicopter's mysterious crash in central Iran. Two crew members have died and several aids to the Commander have been hospitalized in Shiraz.

The helicopter's crash happened, today, near Abadeh located in Fars province.

Beigi is the head of the regime's security forces, in the central region, and his troops were heavily involved in the repression of demonstrators in Shiraz, such as, during the riots of Tchar Shanbe Souri (Fire Fiest).

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 12:10:00 PM  

Mysterious fire damages commercial building in rebellious suburb

SMCCDI (Information Service):
Another mysterious fire damaged a commercial building located in Eslamshahr which is one of the southern suburbs of Tehran. The building which is affiliated to rich Bazaris, close to the Islamic regime, was subject to what's believed to be an act of unidentified arsonists.

Several homes belonging to regime's mercenaries were also set on fire during the celebration of the traditional Tchahr-Shanbe Souri and during the riots which rocked this rebellious suburb. READ MORE

Eslamshahr which was one of the main bastions of the Islamic regime has become scene of several bloody clashes since 1996 between angry residents and the regime forces.

The governmental food stocks, located in this area, were looted by the residents in 2003.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 12:05:00 PM  

Iran Becomes Dynamic New Market

Borzou Daragahi, SF Chronicle:
Iran has emerged as one of the world's flash points, as the United States and several European allies warn Tehran to give up its plans to produce nuclear fuel.

While the Europeans offer the carrot of diplomacy, the Bush administration threatens to push for United Nations sanctions. Some international experts speculate that, if all else fails, an American military strike is possible.

But Andreas Gabriel isn't worried. The director of Iran operations for the French automaker Renault is sitting in his chic, open-space Tehran office, sipping tea and lauding the opportunities in Iran's market, which is growing at a rate of about 500,000 new vehicles a year. READ MORE

"There is a big discrepancy between the image that you can have about Iran and the reality," he says. "It's a huge market that was closed to foreign companies for 30 years. The pioneers get the biggest part of the cake, so I think it's better to hurry than to wait."

The international community has intensified its pressure on Iran, which stands accused of failing to keep its promises to suspend its uranium enrichment activities.

Tehran has dismissed the demands -- as well as Washington's offer to remove a ban on selling spare airplane parts and end opposition to Iran entering the World Trade Organization in exchange for a halt of nuclear activity -- as "hallucinations."

But while diplomatic rhetoric has reached a fever pitch, in the Iranian capital, the drumbeats of war are drowned out by the sounds of deals being made between Iran and European firms.

Europeans consider Iran one of the most attractive, untapped consumer markets in the world. Renault has already invested an estimated $300 million in Iran and is set to invest more in the coming years.

Oil companies have long ignored the country's diplomatic problems and human rights violations in their pursuit of energy supplies. But Iran's increasing business ties with Europe now go well beyond petroleum and gas.

Last month, Germany's Mercedes Benz announced a joint venture with Iran's main car manufacturer, Iran Khodro.

They'll be rushing to catch up with Peugeot, the French automaker, which has had a deal to build cars in Iran for years. And last week, Iran and Italy signed a trade cooperation deal worth more than $3.5 billion.

European Union trade with Iran totaled at least $15 billion a year in 2001, according to the latest EU statistics, and has been steadily rising since. Europe buys 40 percent of Iran's exports, mostly oil.

Business consultant Siamak Namazi says despite a few international deals canceled or delayed by the government, foreigners are rushing to do business in Iran.

"One of the best indicators is to check the number of business-class flights to Tehran, which are completely booked through," he said.

Europeans aren't just bringing their briefcases and laptops here. They're bringing their families.

Gabriel brought his wife and three kids for a life of diplomatic parties, language classes, upscale gyms and new restaurants like Bistango, a continental restaurant that was started by a Canadian chef.

"Our daily life is really much better than we could have expected," Gabriel said.

American companies are forbidden to engage in most trade with Iran because of sanctions. But Europeans say they've been drawn here by the business potential. Iran sits atop some of the world's largest energy reserves.

Paul-Marie Graf used to head the Iranian operations of the big French oil company Total. Now he's a business consultant living in Tehran with his wife in a plush mansion. "You cannot ignore Iran today," he said.

Namazi says it's no mystery why European companies are so keen on Iran. They're merely exploiting U.S. sanctions. "There are a lot of American businesses that could have won a contract, and their main European competitors know that they can only compete in a country where the American company isn't present," he said.

"So actually they come to Iran precisely because American companies cannot come."

In any case, the potential rewards are so high that they outweigh the risks, which include a hot war with the United States.

"They don't think really the U.S. is going to attack," said Nasser Hadian, a professor at Tehran University. "The perception is that if they attack it will be a surgical kind of attack, and that's not going to have a major impact on their investment. So they feel relatively secure."

European diplomats in Tehran say opening the floodgates of trade with Iran is the best way to neutralize conservative Islamic organizations, like the Revolutionary Guards, which control huge sections of the economy.

Instead of isolating or attacking the country, they say, send in an army of Western businesspeople.

"The revolution in Ukraine last year did not happen overnight," said one European diplomat in Tehran, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The revolution in Georgia did not happen overnight. It took 10 years of economic trade and normalization."

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 11:48:00 AM  

Bush: Toppling Saddam inspired democracy in MIddle East

The Associated Press, CNN.com:
To listen to the President's Radio Address click here

The U.S. military victory against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq gets the credit for "inspiring democratic reformers from Beirut to Tehran," President Bush said Saturday. READ MORE

"Today, women can vote in Afghanistan, Palestinians are breaking the old patterns of violence, and hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are rising up to demand their sovereignty and democratic rights," Bush said in his weekly radio address.

"These are landmark events in the history of freedom," he said. ...

Bush said "the Iraqi people are taking charge of their own destiny," citing the country's first free and fair elections in its modern history, this week's first meeting of the Transitional National Assembly and the upcoming drafting of a constitution for a "free and democratic Iraq." ...

"Today we're seeing hopeful signs across the broader Middle East," Bush said. "The victory of freedom in Iraq is strengthening a new ally in the war on terror, and inspiring democratic reformers from Beirut to Tehran." ...

"I know that nothing can end the pain of the families who have lost loved ones in this struggle, but they can know that their sacrifice has added to America's security and the freedom of the world," he said. "Because of our actions, freedom is taking root in Iraq, and the American people are more secure." ...

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 11:40:00 AM  

Presidential Message: Nowruz

George W. Bush, The White House:
I send greetings to those celebrating Nowruz.

Nowruz marks the arrival of a new year and the celebration of life. It has long been an opportunity to spend time with family and friends and enjoy the beauty of nature.

Many Americans who trace their heritage to Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Central Asia observe this special occasion to preserve their rich heritage and ensure that their values and traditions are passed on to future generations. This festival also reminds all Americans of the diversity that has made our Nation stronger and better.

Laura and I send our best wishes for peace and prosperity in the New Year.

GEORGE W. BUSH

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 11:38:00 AM  

Persian New Year Transcends Religions, Regimes

John Roach, National Geographic News:
The arrival of the spring equinox on Sunday will cue Persians to party. Far from a gardening rite, the equilibrium of day and night marks the start of Nowruz, the Persian New Year. The holiday is the most revered celebration in the greater Persian world. (Persia includes the countries of Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and portions of western China and northern Iraq.) READ MORE

"[Nowruz] is a celebration of the renewal of nature after the slumber of winter, so to speak, and along with it the human response to that awakening of the Earth," said Mahnaz Afkhami, director of the Foundation for Iranian Studies in Bethesda, Maryland.

The Persian New Year has been celebrated for at least 3,000 years. Its roots stretch back to Zoroastrianism, one of the world's oldest religions. While Nowruz customs and traditions have evolved with time, the spirit of Nowruz remains the same, Afkhami said.

David Rahni, a professor at Pace University, helps organize the Persian Iranian Parade in New York City. Now in its second year, the parade, which will be held this Sunday, celebrates the contributions of Iranian Americans.

Rahni said Nowruz is the common thread uniting religions and nationalities in the Persian world and beyond. "If there's one major annual celebration that is universally commemorated by them all, it is indeed Nowruz," he said.

Jumping Fire

For Persians around the world, Nowruz celebrations began on Tuesday night marking what's known as Wednesday Eve (think Christmas and Christmas Eve). They will continue until April 1, the 13th day of spring.

On the last Tuesday night of the old year, Persians typically gather around bonfires to celebrate Chahar Shanbeh Suri, a celebratory ritual of the quest for enlightenment, health, and happiness in the year ahead. Celebrants jump over fires as they chant the Persian phrase, "Give me your beautiful red color/Take back my sickly pallor."

"This ritual is supposed to clean the body of illness, bad feelings, or unhealthy things that might be in the body—getting rid of that and picking up the warmth, the glow, of the fire," Afkhami, the Foundation for Iranian Studies director, said.

On the first day of spring, Nowruz day, families gather around a table set with the Haft seen arrangement of seven items. Each item begins with the letter s in Persian and symbolizes the hoped for happiness, abundance, and health in the New Year.

For example, there is an apple, the Persian word for which is seeb. The fruit symbolizes health and robustness. Garlic (seer) is said to ward off evil and illness. Sprouts of wheat (samanoo) symbolize good crops of growth and plenty, Afkhami said.

The celebration continues for 13 days with gatherings of relatives and friends to renew friendships, bury grievances, and exchange gifts and wishes. It is common for Persians to take time off from work and school.

On the 13th, and final, day people head outdoors and into the countryside for a picnic. It is a final time to toss out the old and ring in the new. This is symbolized by the tossing into a stream the wheat that had been growing on the Haft seen table since before the new year.

It is also customary for young women to tie green shoots together to symbolize their hope for marriage in the coming year. "You tie a knot that symbolizes the tying of your destiny with the destiny of another person," Afkhami said.

Tolerated Holiday

When the theocratic government of Iran came to power in 1979, Nowruz was banned. The government wanted to recognize only Islamic holidays and considered Nowruz a pagan celebration, Afkhami said.

"But the people wouldn't have any of it," she said. "It's the most popular holiday in Iran, and people continued to celebrate it anyway. Then, finally, the government let go and lifted the ban."

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 11:26:00 AM  

Cracks in Iran's Revolutionary Road

Russell Skelton, The Age:
The true relationship between the leadership and its people is often revealed by the state of the roads. Iran's are among the most chaotic, insanely frantic and lethal in the Middle East, outside Iraq. It's not so much a hell's highway as a permanent 24-hour Le Mans, where cars, trucks and buses go door handle to door handle, ruthlessly seeking out the slightest opening. READ MORE

Expect the unexpected on Tehran's roads because nothing is too dangerous or too bizarre. Cars will reverse at high speed down one-way streets, appear from nowhere on the wrong side of the road at intersections. After sitting in a gridlock for 45 minutes, you will suddenly be propelled down a freeway at 140 km/h - without seatbelts.

What results is catastrophic. About 20,000 Iranians die on the roads each year and probably treble that number are injured. There are horrific accidents. A recent collision between an overcrowded bus and a petrol tanker left a plane crash of fatalities.

It is extraordinary that in a state that espouses pious religious values and imposes strict, even draconian, political control over its citizens that so much madness prevails. How is it that Iran's ruling clergy can track down internet bloggers that dare to question their authority, and spend hours secretly tapping the conversations of the country's only Nobel Peace Prize winner, but cannot impose the slightest shred of discipline on the millions of motorists burning up the nation's finite petroleum reserves at 10 cents a litre?

An eminent Iranian economist, who asked that his name not be published, put it this way: "The clergy simply have no idea how to run a modern economy. They sell the petrol cheaply to keep people happy. It means they do not have to provide more public transport because everybody drives a car. But do you know what is so utterly crazy? Most of the petrol is imported and sold at subsidised prices because there are insufficient refineries.

"What is even more insane is that petrol smuggling is a thriving business; prices in Iran are cheaper than in neighbouring states. Everybody is in on it, the military and the mullahs."

Outwardly, the Islamic Republic of Iran looms as the most formidable state in the Middle East. Rich in oil and gas, boasting a population of 70 million, its influence reverberates throughout the Gulf. It has strong connections to the Shiites in Iraq, finances Hezbollah militias in Lebanon and plays puppeteer in Syria. Apart from a vast standing army, it has secretly acquired the technology to build nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them.

Through state-controlled media and the weekly institution of Friday prayers, the ruling mullahs pump out a diatribe of anti-American, anti-Israeli rhetoric that more than matches anything George Bush has come up with, including his axis of evil line.

But Tehran's actions often tell another story. Despite the pomposity and zealotry, the mullahs are capable of being nakedly pragmatic. They channelled arms to the Northern Alliance to help oust the Taliban from Afghanistan, they looked the other way when the US invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein and, more recently, they welcomed US-managed elections. Iran was one of the first countries to recognise Baghdad's interim government. Hezbollah also grumbles that they do not receive as much money as they used to from their spiritual cousins.

Iran is a nation that has been driving blindly down the Islamic revolutionary highway for 26 years, only to find that it is on a ring road. The theocracy that seized power when the shah fled now faces its biggest problem: how to modernise the corrupt, Soviet-style economy that is failing miserably to provide jobs and prosperity for a generation of educated thirtysomethings who make up a large proportion of the population. Disenchantment appears widespread. Voters boycotted the last parliamentary and municipal elections in large numbers and may well refuse to participate in this year's presidential vote.

It appears the elderly ayatollahs who glower down from giant wall murals on Tehran's streets are losing their revolutionary reverence and cracks are appearing in the religious facade. Ayatollah Janati, who sits on the Guardian Council, the most powerful non-elected decision-making body, upset the Friday faithful by openly questioning the morality of fellow clerics who ran their own "backyard" businesses. Some of Iran's richest are to be found in the ranks of the mullahs and revolutionary guards who were ideally placed to personally exploit the shah's seized assets. Their money is tied up in a network of shadowy trusts that sit safely outside the financial system.

IF THE roads reflect the level of official cynicism, then the provocative film industry is probably the nation's conscience. When The Lizard, a hilarious film about a petty thief who escapes from jail and successfully passes himself off as a Shiite cleric, opened in city cinemas, it played to packed houses. Even in the more conservative regional cities such as Isfahan, people lined up for tickets. Iranians, it seemed, could not get enough of a comedy that poked fun at clergy, satirising their self-serving ways and over-inflated role in everyday life.

What was curious about the film, which was banned after two weeks, was that the Ministry of Spiritual Guidance approved the script and provided funding, suggesting perhaps that somebody in officialdom also thought it was a hoot.

Kamaral Tabrizi, the film's director, told The Sunday Age that he was stunned by the overnight success of The Lizard, copies of which are readily available on the black market for a few dollars. "Supporters of the clergy thought it was too negative, but it was the first time a film has been made taking a humorous look at the clergy. It struck a chord with most people - they loved it."

Tabrizi sees his role as a director as "shining a light into the dark corners", highlighting the contradictions of a society that claims to be both democracy and theocracy and does neither particularly well.

He believes much of the disenchantment comes from the generation that fought in the eight-year war with Iraq and who feel the Government has not delivered. "The motto at the time of war was social justice for all and an adherence to spiritual values. But the promise of a postwar utopia never eventuated. Woman and young people are asking what future do they have. They have not abandoned their religious beliefs, but they are looking for something better."

Tabrizi's next film deals with Iran's pervasive drug problem. The number of addicts is estimated to be about 1 million.

Iran's fickle censors are yet to approve a film script that deals with the nation's dark side, the widespread abuse of human rights by the Revolutionary Court, which targets students, journalists, lawyers and even clergy who defy the system. The court is politically directed by prosecutors appointed by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and unlike Iran's normal judiciary, it operates behind closed doors with powers to imprison and interrogate.

Take the case of Fereshteh Ghazi a 26-year-old journalist. She said the official who phoned her seemed friendly enough, asking her to come to the Revolutionary Court to discuss articles that she had published on the internet, including one that featured a confidential exchange between President Khatami and another cleric over corruption. "The official said it would be a relaxed chat, nothing to worry about, but what could I do?" Fereshteh recalls over a pot of coffee in the bustling lobby of the Continental hotel, where couples gather. As we talk, smart young women saunter past, their colourful scarves revealing wisps of hair, which is prohibited by religious decree. Fereshteh's scarf is blue, beige and grey, not the fashionable pick of the reformers, but colourful enough to attract the "Rev guards". She wears a tight-fitting, stylish raincoat, something that is also frowned upon.

Fereshteh said that when she arrived at Tehran's No 9 court last October, she was arrested and placed in solitary confinement. For the next 40 days she was interrogated at all hours of the day and night, threatened with permanent imprisonment and accused of being sexually promiscuous, which is not only deeply offensive but prosecutable. Her interrogators only dropped the last allegation when she produced a letter from her doctor certifying that she was a virgin when she married her musician husband.

"I was held with other women: prostitutes, drug addicts, women accused of murder. Each time I was taken to interrogation I was blindfolded so I could not see where I was or what was going on. The interrogation room had one small window that remained closed, no matter how oppressive it got."

Fereshteh Ghazi contributed to emrooz.com, a once popular website that Iran's security forces have since hacked into and shut down. The site published articles advocating reform and ran a referendum calling for constitutional change, which attracted thousands of hits. With close to 10 million internet users in Iran, the clergy have become so fearful of the internet after neutering reformist newspapers that they are now working on ways to establish a nationwide intranet to block access to the World Wide Web.

With 21 other journalists and internet bloggers, Fereshteh will stand trail later this year on 10 charges of sedition - of attempting to undermine the Islamic Republic of Iran and its constitution. If found guilty she faces up to 30 years' imprisonment. "Yes, I am frightened, I am worried for my husband, who is not a journalist and who has had nothing to do with my reporting."

Abdullah Momeni, a close friend of Fereshteh's, who has participated in student protests and also been interrogated, explains how the system works to isolate those who question it. Whenever a person comes under suspicion, he says, authorities interview neighbours and ask the local mosque to certify how good a Muslim the person is. A negative report leads to a student being suspended and put on a black list, unable to work.

"Students do not see the present time in Iran as being particularly favourable, but we are optimistic about the future. We are disaffected and there is an obvious lack of confidence in the system. Any talk of dissent or change is kept for the back alleys for now, but deep down we know the system will not survive in its present form. Students have learnt to regularly attend Friday prayers and to join conservative groups to avoid scrutiny."

ON THE other side of the political divide conservatives are also arguing about the shape and direction of the Islamic revolution. Influential opinion makers such as Amir Mohebian, the editor of Resalat newspaper, argue that the theocracy must modernise the economy in ways that China did post Tiananmen. Described by some as Iran's equivalent of a "neo-con", Mohebian believes that no further political reforms are necessary because Iran is already a democracy. "We do not want to sacrifice the economy for democracy or democracy for the economy - we need both," he says, endorsing the current constitutional structure.

Like all conservatives he is fiercely critical of President Bush, noting that the US never acknowledged the supportive role played by Iran over Iraq and dismisses Bush's offer of World Trade Organisation membership as a right of Iran's, not a gift to be bestowed by Washington.

But Mohebian, who has a copy of The New York Review of Books on his desk, passionately believes the free market is one thing Iran can and should borrow from the US and Australia. He advocates slashing subsidies, selling off inefficient government businesses, floating the currency and opening the doors to foreign investors. That, he says, is the only way to wake the moribund economy out of its slumber and eradicate the black economy.

Mohebian advocates providing seed money for new ventures and opening up the financial system to foreign-owned banks with more flexible lending policies. "Our biggest challenge is creating jobs for young people and even though there may be job losses in the transition to the free market, they will be short-term. Iran is a wealthy country, but if it doesn't go for a free market, we will lose everything."

Mohebian's views are trenchantly opposed by a group of conservative MPs in the Parliament, but are said to be gathering acceptance among Government technocrats and more enlightened clergy, including Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the all-important Expediency Council. A former president and rich businessman, Rafsanjani is set on another tilt at the top job and is promising to make economic reform his first priority.

Mohammad Hashemi, Rafsanjani's younger brother, sits at his elbow on the Expediency Council and is not shy about venturing opinions on his brother's behalf. His splendidly restored office, located in the grounds of the late shah's palace, would be the envy of any antique collector. Hashemi agrees that the economy is Iran's biggest problem and he is sympathetic to the ideas of the neo-con editor. He endorses the idea of WTO membership, making investment easier and increasing the size of the private sector by privatising inefficient government enterprises, which account for two-thirds of all economic activity.

Asked if Iran can implement economic reform while maintaining the integrity of the Shiite state, he replies: "Yes, why not?"

"The revolutionary constitution cannot be changed. But we can improve and grow the economy; we need foreign investment to produce more. Economic reform is at the centre of all considerations now."

Perhaps what he really means to say is Iran's leadership has realised that if it does provide jobs and a future for the majority of Iranians - substantially, those under 35 - then the whole Shiite edifice could begin to crumble as the reform movement gathers traction. But the most profound issue facing the next leadership is whether Iran can achieve an open economy, while denying its students and workers basic political freedoms.

Asked why journalists are jailed and editors fined for advocating reform and exposing faults in the system, Hashemi chuckles. "Freedom of the press is guaranteed in the constitution, but you are not free to write what you like. Reporters must operate within the rules. It's like driving down the autobahn, the sign says 110km/h, but if you do 120km/h, you get a ticket."

But nobody gets a ticket for speeding in Iran. It's the students, lawyers, journalists, filmmakers and dissidents whom the state regards as the dangerous drivers.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/19/2005 10:27:00 AM  

Friday, March 18, 2005

Friday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.18.2005:

The Wall Street Journal outlines the reasons why the US is convinced Iran is developing nuclear weapons.
This is an excellent overview of the reasons for US concern over Iran's nuclear weapons program. It is a history of Iran's deception that the world needs to be made aware of. This report needs wide distribution. This is a must read!
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/18/2005 06:05:00 PM  

Atomic Clock Ticks Down to Fallout with Iran

Simon Tisdall, The Guardian:
Iran and the western powers are on a collision course as the clock ticks towards crucial talks in Paris next week about Tehran's nuclear programme. ...

The talks are highly technical in nature. Yet the basic problem underlying complex disputes about yellowcake and centrifuges is more easily understood. It boils down to an abiding, mutual lack of trust. Unless somebody gives ground soon, the Paris talks between the EU and Iran could mark a parting of the ways.

"The US is using the nuclear issue as a pretext for regime change," a senior Iranian official said this week. "The issue is a diversion. The US wants to weaken Iran. Even if the nuclear issue was solved, they would want another thing and another thing." READ MORE

Iran had agreed a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment as a confidence-building measure, not a complete cessation, the official said. And the suspension would not necessarily last much longer.

President Mohammad Khatami drove the point home in Isfahan this week: "Cessation of these activities is unacceptable to us. If the Europeans insist ... whatever happens after, the responsibility lies with them."

Determined not to repeat its North Korea mistakes, the US is equally adamant that Iran must give way before it acquires full nuclear weapons capabilities. "It really is now up to the Iranians to do what they need to do," Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, warned.

By offering limited incentives to Iran for the first time last week, she said the US had "forged a common front with Europe ... I'm sure it makes the Iranians uncomfortable."

Stephen Hadley, the US national security adviser, dismissed Iran's proffered "objective guarantees". "The best guarantee is to permanently abandon their enrichment facilities," he said.

Stuck in the middle, the EU is in the increasingly awkward position of holding the ring between Tehran and Washington, which is not directly involved in the talks. While it worries about Iran, Europe's bottom line is avoiding an Iraq-style rift with the US.

British officials are urging Tehran to agree to an indefinite suspension of enrichment while talks on trade and normalisation issues proceed. "Like history, diplomacy never ends," a senior official said. But this approach does not recommend itself to Washington neoconservatives such as Richard Perle, who assert that only regime change in Tehran can ultimately solve the problem.

"The belief that there's a diplomatic solution to be had here is increasingly the triumph of hope over experience," the Wall Street Journal commented. On the American right, distrust also extends to the EU, whose leadership on Iran is resented and whose post-Iraq solidarity is doubted.

Iranian officials have been quick to suggest that by agreeing with the US to carpet Iran in the UN security council if incentives flop and the talks fail, the troika is walking into trap.

"The Americans are trying to create an environment so the US can hit Iran," one diplomat said. "And I don't think the Europeans would ultimately accept this."

That could be a serious miscalculation. But any Iranian attempt to play the EU off against America would test Europe's unity of purpose. Mr Khatami is due to visit the French president, Jacques Chirac, next month.

British diplomats point out that the Iranians have long sought US engagement. Now it is forthcoming, they say, Tehran detects a plot.

posted by DoctorZin @ 3/18/2005 05:43:00 PM