Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [7/16/06 - 7/22/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran behind Hezbollah's war on Israel.

• The Guardian reported that Prime Minister Tony Blair has blamed Iran and Syria for the latest flare-up in the Middle East.
• William Kristol, The Financial Times reminded us that if there were no Islamic Republic of Iran there would be no Hezbollah. No Islamic Republic of Iran, no one to prop up the Assad regime in Syria.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that an Iranian military source said that between 1992 and 2005 Iran has transferred some 11,500 missiles and rockets to Hezbullah.
• Michael Ledeen, The Corner reported that while the Lebanese—even in Paris are demonstrating against Hezbollah and Syria and Iran, there is a great opportunity to bring down Assad along with destroying Hezbollah.
• The New York Times reported that key Arab governments have taken the rare step of blaming Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia, with Jordan, Egypt and several Persian Gulf states, chastised Hezbollah for “unexpected, inappropriate and irresponsible acts.”
• IranMania reported that Druze leader Walid Jumblatt charged "The war is no longer Lebanon's ... it is an Iranian war."
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat argued why the present conflict in the Middle East will almost certainly lead to a broader war.
• The Wall Street Journal argued that the war between Hezbollah and Israel could be a clarifying moment if the world draws the proper lessons. To wit, this is a preview of what the Middle East will look like if Iran succeeds in going nuclear.
• Ali Nouri Zadeh, Asharq Al-Awsat reminded us of the origins of Lebanon's Hezbollah and why it is the legitimate son of the Iranian Revolution.
• Bret Stephens, The Wall Street Journal reported on why Hassan Nasrallah the head of Hezbollah started the present crisis and why he thinks things are going his way.
• Mohammed Fadhil, The Wall Street Journal, an Iraqi blogger, argued that Iran has proved that it's able to drag the region into a state of chaos and the key point in this strategy is to keep the half-solution that debilitates the other powers and at the same time it's not a costly tactic for Iran! A must read.
• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard reported the grim implications that Hezbollah launched two missiles at Haifa believed to be Iranian-produced Raad-1s, which have an estimated range of as much as 150 kilometers.
• Michael Rubin, The Weekly Standard reported that while President George W. Bush said, "To help calm the situation, we've got diplomats in the region." Officials ritually promote diplomacy and dialogue, but absent an overarching strategy, diplomacy for diplomacy's sake can sometimes make matters worse.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that secret efforts to set up a cease-fire between Hezbollah and Israel have hit a brick wall.
• Amir Taheri, The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran and Syria are playing the decades old motto: 'When nothing else works, there is always Israel!" Despots used Israel as an excuse for their brutal rule, as a diversion from their misdeeds. But he believes that the Israel diversion may not work this time.
• The Washington Post reported that Iran's Hezbollah said it is ready to attack the US and Israel.
• Reuters reported that the FBI is trying to ferret out possible Hezbollah agents in the United States amid concerns that rising U.S.-Iranian tensions could trigger attacks on American soil.
• CNews reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki indicated that Iran may be playing a covert role in the fighting in Lebanon when he said that a ceasefire was feasible.
• Michael Rubin, The Wall Street Journal explains why the Arab world has not rallied to Hezbollah's defense it's present war with Israel. A must read.
• USA Today reported that Hezbollah' and Hamas' attempt to drag the whole Arab world into their war with Israel has drawn flak in the form of Arab public opinion that neither militant jihadist organizations anticipated. It seems Iran has overplayed its hand.
• The New York Sun reported that an Arab diplomatic source said hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel are on the ground in Lebanon fighting Israel, "I have no doubt whatsoever that they are there and operating some of the equipment."
• The New York Times reported that the power and sophistication of the missile and rocket arsenal that Hezbollah has used in recent days has caught the United States and Israel off guard.
• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard argued that the most likely reason that Hezbollah has not yet deployed all of the assets at their disposal to destroy the enemy is due to its decision making process. The decisions are made in Iran.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli Maj.-Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland argued that Iran may not want to get very involved in this round of fighting and may leave Hizbullah to fend for itself - willing to sacrifice some of its interests in Lebanon at this stage to make headway in its real objective of obtaining nuclear weapons.
• George Friedman, Stratfor reported that Hezbollah's new missiles can reach Tel Aviv and he argues why Israel will almost certainly launch a ground invasion of southern Lebanon for the purpose of disarming Hezbollah.
• Charles Krauthammer, The Washington Post argued that amid the general wringing of hands over the seemingly endless and escalating Israel-Hezbollah fighting there is opportunity. A must read.
• Andrew C. McCarthy, The National Review Online argued that Israel’s war against Hezbollah is a watershed in the war on terror. As long as we understand that it’s not just Israel’s war. It is our war.
• Council on Foreign Relations reported that as the conflict in the Middle East continues, attention turns to the influence of Iran and Syria over their local proxy groups—particularly Hezbollah. Experts see a new boldness in the way both countries are exerting their influence in the region.
• Inter Press Service reported that this week-old Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is part of a broader offensive being waged by Tehran against Washington across the region; a view has been largely accepted and echoed by the mainstream media.
• The Times Online reported that Britain blames Iran for the eruption of fighting in Lebanon and wants to use crisis talks to build an alliance for its long-term “containment”.
• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online argued that Iran appears to have miscalculated in fueling the present crisis between Hezbollah and Israel. Never before have Saudis, Egyptians, Jordanians, Kuwaitis, and Iraqis spoken so forcefully against the terrorists (Hamas and Hezbollah, Sunni and Shiite) and their state sponsors in Tehran and Damascus and this provides a unique opportunity for the West that must not be missed.
• The Washington Times reported that former senior U.S. and Israeli officials called for the United States to rally the international community to impose sanctions on Iran and push Arab allies to work against Hezbollah and Hamas.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com reported that the nearly month-old hot war between Hezbollah and Israel. This is the opening salvo of Iran’s global assault on the United States.
• Con Coughlin, The Telegraph reported that Hezbollah's operation against Israel's northern border has been more than a month in the planning, and Teheran dispatched 20 Iranian Guard commanders to southern Lebanon in mid-June to oversee the preparations. A must read.
• The Guardian reported that a hard-line Iranian parliament member, Sayeed Abu Talib, predicted Iran could be positioning itself for eventual truce talks saying ``There can be no negotiations without Iran,'' he said. ``Otherwise, any deal is doomed to failure.''
• The Spectator reported that the Lebanese people have watched as Hezbollah has built up a heavily armed state-within-a-state that has now carried the country into a devastating conflict it cannot win and many are fed up.
• Eli Lake, The NY Sun reported that one of Saudi Arabia's leading Wahhabi sheiks, Abdullah bin Jabreen has issued a strongly worded religious edict, or fatwa, declaring it unlawful to support, join or pray for Hezbollah.
• Bloomberg reported that President George W. Bush and his closest ally, U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, will meet in Washington July 28.
• Iran Press News reported that Rafsanjani complained "Why have other Islamic countries maintained their silence in regards to the disaster in Lebanon and have not even condemned [Israel]." Photo.
• Khaleej Times reported that Rafsanjani hailed Lebanon’s Hezbollah as “heroes”, but rejected mounting allegations that Iran and Syria were behind the Shiite movement’s conflict with Israel.
• Mehran Riazaty reported that the Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Brigadier General Yahya Rahim Safavi, said Israel is not aware of Hezbollah’s capabilities.
• Stratfor examined Iran's motives in Lebanon.
• The Wall Street Journal published an excellent report on Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah.
• Iranian Student News Agency reported that Iran will never be brought into the Lebanon war.
• The New York Times reported that there is a huge amount of anger in Iran about what is happening in Lebanon. In interviews in Tehran, person after person said the same thing: Iran should worry about Iran’s problems and not be dragged down by others’ battles.
• The New York Times reported that as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads to Israel, the US is seeking ways to peel Syria away from its alliance of convenience with Iran.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said "Syria and Iran are two friendly countries. There's also indications that both Syria and Iran have influence with Hezbollah and have supported Hezbollah, and therefore, the two countries have to be part of the solution."
• The Telegraph reported how Iran has plotted to harm Western interests.
  

Will the world now demand Hezbollah disarm?

• The Financial Times reported Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, said that Hezbollah, a key ally of Tehran, would not disarm.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that leaders of the world's most powerful nations handed President Bush their support for his call for the terrorist group Hezbollah, backed by Iran and Syria, to be disarmed.
• The Telegraph reported that the Bush administration made clear that it saw the crisis in the Middle East as an opportunity for the world to deal once and for all with Hezbollah and to rein in its sponsors, Iran and Syria.
  

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.

• Voice of America reported that Condoleezza Rice says the nations making that offer will bring Iran before the U.N. Security Council, because Tehran has not formally responded to the deal.
• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's nuclear chief denied reports that the country would sign an agreement on nuclear cooperation with the United States in exchange for altering its position on Iran.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that a proposed U.N. Security Council resolution would give Iran a short time to suspend uranium enrichment and work on a heavy-water nuclear reactor or face the prospect of economic and diplomatic sanctions.
• Reuters reported that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said they are prepared to back a United Nations resolution giving Iran a deadline to respond to a package of incentives on its nuclear program.
• MosNews reported that Russian the foreign minister Lavrov said that if Iran fails to respond to UN demands Russia will be ready to discuss economic sanctions at the UN Security Council.
• VOA News published an article entitled - Experts: Iran Leadership in Deep Debate Over Nuclear Offer. But the article makes it clear that the Iranian leadership is united in demanding the right to enrich uranium. Where is the debate?
• ABC News reported that Iran has again rejected international demands it freeze its controversial nuclear program but would take until August 22 to reply.
• Reuters reported that assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill, the chief US negotiator with Pyongyang confirmed reports that Iranians witnessed the July 4 tests saying "Yes, that is my understanding" and it is "absolutely correct." US officials fear cash-strapped Pyongyang are keen to sell Iran missiles and possibly nuclear material.
• Iran Press News reported that officials in Bulgaria stopped a truck carrying radio active materials to Iran.
  

Iran's leaders latest statements.

• Iran Focus reported that Iran’s hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned the West “If you do not contain this criminal regime and end your support for it and give a positive response to the people of the region you will face a dire fate.”
• Yahoo News reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared the Islamic republic's "support" for Syria if it comes under attack.
• Iran Focus reported that the Supreme Commandant of Iran’s IRGC described the United States, Britain, and Israel as an “axis of evil.”
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promised a "rejoicing" for Muslims in the Middle East "soon." Ahmadinejad said the "volcano of rage" at the "arrogant powers" was "on the verge of eruption."
• The Washington Post reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has written to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Iran has no comment.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared that Israel had "pushed the button of its own destruction" by launching its military campaign against the Iranian-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon.
• Iranian Student News Agency reported that Iran's general staff chief commander commented that closing all oil pipelines to Israel was the at least thing which the Arabs could do.
  

Iranian Dissidents.

• Rooz Online published the speech of Iranian dissident Akbar Ganji when he received the 2006 international Aubuchon award to his journalistic work in Iran.
• Rooz Online reported that in response to Akbar Ganji's call for a three-day hunger strike for the release of political prisoners in Iran, Iranians in Iran and 12 other cities supported his appeal.
• Rooz Online reported on Akbar Ganji’s call for a world-wide 3-day hunger strike which has created a global network linked to Tehran and his message was an internal regime change.
  

Human Rights and Freedom of the Press in Iran.

• Iranian.ws reported that once again, another Iranian woman, Malak Ghorbany, has been sentenced to death by the barbaric practice of public stoning. They have a petition to help me save her life.
• Potkin Azarmehr, azarmehr.blogspot.com reported on the final day of the hunger strike in London, which took place in solidarity with Iran's prisoners of conscience.
• Rooz Online reported the words of Issa Saharkhiz, an Iranian journalist who has been sentenced by jury of the special press offences. He said “They have not left any space for independent and freedom loving papers. From their perspective, a good journalist is the one who accepts the dictated stories of the judiciary, ministry of guidance, and national security council.”
• Rooz Online reported on the forced confessions of imprisoned Iranian intellectual Ramin Jahanbegloo.
• Iran Press News reported that Dr. Alireza Sassanian, a pharmacological researcher famous for his vaccines, was arrested and remains in Evin Prison for failing to transfer the registration of his discovery from his own name to one of the governmental universities of the Islamic regime. He has also been sentenced to death.
  

The Iranian Economy.

• The New York Times finally reported on that Iran is struggling with the cost of its gasoline imports and debating on how to deal with the expected unrest from the lack of fuel.
• IranMania reported that Iran’s daily consumption of natural gas has reached its highest level ever and is double the previous year.
  

Rumors of war.

• John Batchelor, The New York Sun argued that Iran expects America to launch air attacks against Iranian command and control, air defenses and nuclear weapons-making and ballistic missile sites by winter, perhaps as early as October 2006.
  

Iran and Iraq.

• The Guardian reported that Tony Blair today directly accused Iran of supplying weapons used to attack British troops in Basra.
• Reuters reported that a senior Iraqi-Kurdish official accused Iranian forces on Thursday of shelling Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq.
  

Iran and the International community.

• The Washington Post reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has written to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Iran has no comment.
• Speigel Online reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government has refused to release a copy of a letter from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad saying it contains "many claims that are not acceptable to us, in particular about Israel, the state of Israel's right to exist and the Holocaust."
• The Los Angeles Times reported that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki accused the MEK, of meddling in his country's affairs and suggested that it could face expulsion from Iraq.
• RIA Novosti reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will sign five cooperation agreements with Tajikistan's leadership during a visit next week.
• Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that French President Jacques Chirac has received a letter from his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, without disclosing details of the contents other than saying it did mention Tehran's controversial uranium enrichment program.
• Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is expanding its military arsenal to counter what it sees as Iran's growing influence in a region convulsed by violence. "There is now an understanding that Iran has to be countered."
  

US Government on Iran.

• Senator Rick Santorumspoke to National Press Club and defined the unique challenges that confront the United States as we conduct a new world war. The full text of his speech. A must read.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that two senior Bush administration officials at the White House met with 30 Iranian activists and academics to discuss the future of Iran.
  

Iran experts tell US Senate its time for a regime change in Iran.

• AxcessNews reported that Iran experts argued to US Senators that a Western-backed incentive package to abandon its nuclear ambitions would not yield results. The overthrow of the mullah is the only option to quell the threat of a nuclear Iran.
• Michael Ledeen, U.S. Senate Committee Testimony, reminded the Senators that if we could help Change the Iranian regime, and the nuclear question becomes manageable. He provided suggestions on how to encourage an internal regime change.
• Ilan Berman, U.S. Senate Committee Testimony, suggested that Washington would do well to simultaneously focus its energies on three objectives: economic pressure, democracy promotion and public diplomacy, with specific recommendations.
• Amir Abbas Fakhravar, U.S. Senate Committee Testimony, said that VOA and Radio Farda and some of the political groups in United States and Europe emphasize reform rather than regime change. To help the Iranian people, the VOA and Radio Farda programming must support regime change.
  

Must Read reports.

• BBC Arabic.com interviewed DoctorZin as part of a series on Middle East blogs.
• James S. Robbins, The National Review Online reported that until last week, Hezbollah has enjoyed virtual immunity in the war on terrorism. It appears that immunity is now over.
• John Batchelor, The New York Sun argued that Iran expects America to launch air attacks against Iranian command and control, air defenses and nuclear weapons-making and ballistic missile sites by winter, perhaps as early as October 2006.
• Frederick Kempe, The Wall Street Journal argued why the new atomic age requires a new nonproliferation strategy.
• The Washington Post reported that President Bush is facing a new and swiftly building backlash on the right over his handling of foreign affairs. They perceive timidity and confusion about long-standing problems including Iran and North Korea.
• Mehdi Khalaji, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy reported that while westerners believe Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad to be popular in Iran, in no small part because of his strong support for Iran’s nuclear program. However, there is much evidence to the contrary. A must read.
• The Washington Times reported that young Iranians are turning increasingly to the Internet to voice their dissatisfaction with a hard-line regime and argued that the United States could make better use of blogs, satellite television, radio and other means to communicate information that the regime withholds from its public.
• The National Review Online examined the accusation that Israel is using a “disproportionate use of force.” He asked Europe, if missiles were falling on Strasbourg, Nancy, Lille, Dijon, and Paris would Chirac’s concern be to respond only in “proportion”?
• Iran Press News reported that officials in Bulgaria stopped a truck carrying radio active materials to Iran.
• The New York Times reported that there is a huge amount of anger in Iran about what is happening in Lebanon. In interviews in Tehran, person after person said the same thing: Iran should worry about Iran’s problems and not be dragged down by others’ battles.
• Moshe Yaalon, New Republic argued that while for years, we were told that the “root cause” of the Middle East’s problems was the Israeli occupation of Arab lands. It is now time to consider whether the conflict is the result of different “root causes”: namely, Iran, Syria.
• James Kitfield, National Journal argued that the United States went to war with the wrong country, Iraq and argued Iran was and is the greater threat.
  

The Experts.

• Michael Ledeen, The Corner reported that while the Lebanese—even in Paris are demonstrating against Hezbollah and Syria and Iran, there is a great opportunity to bring down Assad along with destroying Hezbollah.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat argued why the present conflict in the Middle East will almost certainly lead to a broader war.
• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard reported the grim implications that Hezbollah launched two missiles at Haifa believed to be Iranian-produced Raad-1s, which have an estimated range of as much as 150 kilometers.
• Michael Rubin, The Weekly Standard reported that while President George W. Bush said, "To help calm the situation, we've got diplomats in the region." Officials ritually promote diplomacy and dialogue, but absent an overarching strategy, diplomacy for diplomacy's sake can sometimes make matters worse.
• Amir Taheri, The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran and Syria are playing the decades old motto: 'When nothing else works, there is always Israel!" Despots used Israel as an excuse for their brutal rule, as a diversion from their misdeeds. But he believes that the Israel diversion may not work this time.
• Michael Rubin, The Wall Street Journal explains why the Arab world has not rallied to Hezbollah's defense it's present war with Israel. A must read.
• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard argued that the most likely reason that Hezbollah has not yet deployed all of the assets at their disposal to destroy the enemy is due to its decision making process. The decisions are made in Iran.
• Charles Krauthammer, The Washington Post argued that amid the general wringing of hands over the seemingly endless and escalating Israel-Hezbollah fighting there is opportunity. A must read.
• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online argued that Iran appears to have miscalculated in fueling the present crisis between Hezbollah and Israel. Never before have Saudis, Egyptians, Jordanians, Kuwaitis, and Iraqis spoken so forcefully against the terrorists (Hamas and Hezbollah, Sunni and Shiite) and their state sponsors in Tehran and Damascus and this provides a unique opportunity for the West that must not be missed.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com reported that the nearly month-old hot war between Hezbollah and Israel. This is the opening salvo of Iran’s global assault on the United States.
• Newt Gingrich, USA Today argued why now isn't the time for Israeli restraint in Lebanon.
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Rock'em Sock'em.
• Cox & Forkum published a cartoon: Helter Shelter.
  

The Quote of the Week.

The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared:

Israel had "pushed the button of its own destruction" by launching its military campaign against the Iranian-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon.

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 7.23.2006:

Ahmadinejad said Israel is reaching "its finishing line."

• The Jerusalem Post reported that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared that Israel had "pushed the button of its own destruction" by launching its military campaign against the Iranian-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon.

But Iran will not fight Israel in Lebanon?

• Iranian Student News Agency reported that Iran will never be brought into the Lebanon war.

Iran's military angry at the Arab lack of support of Hezbollah.

• Iranian Student News Agency reported that Iran's general staff chief commander commented that closing all oil pipelines to Israel was the at least thing which the Arabs could do.

Iranians want government to focus on Iran not Palestine.

• The New York Times reported that there is a huge amount of anger in Iran about what is happening in Lebanon. In interviews in Tehran, person after person said the same thing: Iran should worry about Iran’s problems and not be dragged down by others’ battles.

Condi heads to Middle East.

• The New York Times reported that as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads to Israel, the US is seeking ways to peel Syria away from its alliance of convenience with Iran.

Koffi Annan: "Syria and Iran" are "friendly countries."

• Dow Jones Newswires reported that U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said "Syria and Iran are two friendly countries. There's also indications that both Syria and Iran have influence with Hezbollah and have supported Hezbollah, and therefore, the two countries have to be part of the solution."

Now Ahmadinejad writes Chirac.

• Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that French President Jacques Chirac has received a letter from his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, without disclosing details of the contents other than saying it did mention Tehran's controversial uranium enrichment program.

Saudi Arabia prepares for conflict with Iran.

• Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is expanding its military arsenal to counter what it sees as Iran's growing influence in a region convulsed by violence. "There is now an understanding that Iran has to be countered."

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Moshe Yaalon, New Republic argued that while for years, we were told that the “root cause” of the Middle East’s problems was the Israeli occupation of Arab lands. It is now time to consider whether the conflict is the result of different “root causes”: namely, Iran, Syria.
• James Kitfield, National Journal argued that the United States went to war with the wrong country, Iraq and argued Iran was and is the greater threat.
• The Telegraph reported how Iran has plotted to harm Western interests.

Iran: Israel doomed to 'destruction'

The Jerusalem Post:

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared Sunday that Israel had "pushed the button of its own destruction" by launching its military campaign against the Iranian-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon.

Ahmadinejad didn't elaborate, but suggested Islamic nations and others could somehow isolate Israel and its main backers led by the United States. On Saturday, the chairman of Iran's armed forced joint chiefs, Maj.-Gen. Sayyed Hassan Firuzabadi, said Iran would never join the current Middle East fighting.

Ahmadinejad's latest salvo against Israel came as the 12-day-old hostilities in Lebanon continued. The hard-line president drew international condemnation last year after publicly calling for Israel to be wiped out and calling the Holocaust a "myth."

Iran helped create the anti-Israel Hizbullah movement in the early 1980s and is among its main supplier of arms and funds. But Teheran has denied Israeli claims it is sent Hizbullah long-range missiles that have reached Haifa and other points in northern Israel since the battles broke out nearly two weeks ago following a cross-border Hizbullah raid that captured two Israeli soldiers.

"Britain and the United States are accomplices of the Zionist regime in its crimes in Lebanon and Palestine," said Ahmadinejad.

He said "the people of the region will respond" unless Israel and its allies apologize for their policies.

"Arrogant powers have set up a base for themselves to threaten and plunder nations in the region," said Ahmadinejad. "But today, the occupier regime (Israel) - whose philosophy is based on threats, massacre and invasion - has reached its finishing line." READ MORE

Last week, Ahmadinejad sent a letter to German Chancellor Angela Merkel that contained statements about Israel and the Holocaust that are "not acceptable," said German officials.

Germany has sharply criticized Ahmadinejad's anti-Israel statements.

In Teheran, the government has sanctioned billboards showing Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah and a message that it is the duty of Muslims to "wipe out" Israel. Officials also organized a demonstration in the southern city of Shiraz by Iran's small Jewish community calling for Israel's destruction and praising Hizbullah.

Saudi military spending rising to meet Iran threat

Andrew Hammond, Reuters:

Saudi Arabia is expanding its military arsenal to counter what it sees as Iran's growing influence in a region convulsed by violence.

Analysts and diplomats say Israel's bombardment of Lebanon after Syrian and Iranian-backed Hizbollah guerrillas kidnapped two soldiers has added to predominantly Sunni Saudi Arabia's alarm at Shi'ite powerhouse Iran's policies in the Middle East.

"There is now an understanding that Iran has to be countered," a Saudi adviser told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. "There is going to be a huge strategic spending on defence, based on a new defence doctrine." READ MORE

Over the past year Saudi officials have spoken publicly against Iranian influence in Shi'ite governed Iraq and the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

After Israel bombarded Lebanon, U.S. ally Saudi Arabia blamed Shi'ite Hizbollah for the blitz that has so far killed more than 300 people and ravaged the infrastructure.

"Iran has been a lot more aggressive (over last year) ... it was made the Saudis sit up in a way they haven't for a good 10 years," said a Western diplomat in Riyadh. "Who in the long term is their main strategic threat? They see it as Iran."

Saudi Arabia wields global political clout partly because it is the world's top oil exporter, and over the past week it has spent billions of dollars on military equipment.

Washington said on Thursday it had approved the sale of 24 UH-60L Black Hawk helicopters, radios, armoured vehicles and other military equipment worth more than $6 billion.

France and Saudi Arabia also signed a defence cooperation agreement on Friday, with a French government source saying a deal was close on helicopters and tanker aircraft.

And Riyadh is set to buy up to 72 Eurofighter Typhoon jets in a deal with Britain that could cost more than $10 billion.

According to Jane's Information Group, tight public finances held up military expansion plans in the 1990s. But a spectacular rise in world oil prices has since turned Saudi fortunes around.

"The relatively small Royal Saudi Land Forces are thinly spread to cope with potential threats on a number of fronts. Saudi Arabia has far smaller ground forces than those of Iran," Jane's said in a report last month, estimating the army at 70,000 men and elite National Guard at 77,000.

The government wants to raise total troop numbers by some 25 percent, and the National Guard is to acquire its own air force, the adviser said. No conscription is planned.

Saudi Arabia relied on U.S. military protection from the 1990-1 Gulf crisis until 2003, when the troops left because American backing was seen as no longer politically acceptable.

Analysts say the U.S. presence near sites in Mecca and Medina was a key element in spawning an al Qaeda campaign in the same year to topple the monarchy.

Iran has emerged as a major Saudi concern since nationalist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took office last year.

"Iran is invading the Arab world and burning everything in its path," columnist Mshari Al-Zaydi wrote in Saudi daily Asharq al-Awsat this week. "With the Arabs standing idly by, Iran seeks to impose its control over the region."

MONEY BURNS

In Lebanon, Riyadh is seeing its own money going up in smoke. Saudi Arabia has been a major political and economic sponsor of Lebanon's post-civil war order, which was laid down by an 1989 agreement made in the Saudi city of Taif.

"The viable, stable structure that took us two decades to build they have managed to bring down in the space of a week," the Saudi adviser said of Hizbollah, rueing Iran's huge influence for what he said was limited spending on the group.

But the Saudi stance has been controversial in the Arab world, where popular support for Hizbollah is strong. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan have been depicted by many as cheering Israel's attempt to destroy the guerrillas from the sidelines.

"It is difficult for them because public opinion is so supportive of Hizbollah," the diplomat said.

Most Arabs see Israel, which does not want to return all of the Arab territories it seized in a 1967 Middle East war, as more of a threat than Iran, whose help is welcomed. The Saudi official said Israel has no imperial ambitions, Iran does.

U.S.-allied Arab governments have been worrying about Iran since 2003 when Iraqi Shi'ites began to rise to power. Jordan's King Abdallah talked of a "Shi'ite crescent" reaching Lebanon.

A U.S.-based Saudi analyst said the fears were overplayed. "It seems that the Saudis will likely continue to spend on the most modern weaponry, regardless of whether this Iranian-led Shi'ite crescent is real or not," he said, requesting anonymity.

U.S. Plan Seeks to Wedge Syria Away From Iran

Helene Cooper and David Sanger, The New York Times:

As Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice heads to Israel on Sunday, Bush administration officials say they recognize Syria is central to any plans to resolve the crisis in the Middle East, and they are seeking ways to peel Syria away from its alliance of convenience with Iran. READ MORE

In interviews, senior administration officials said they had no plans right now to resume direct talks with the Syrian government. President Bush recalled his ambassador to Syria, Margaret Scobey, after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, a former Lebanese prime minister, in February 2005. Since then, America’s contacts with Damascus have been few, and the administration has imposed an array of sanctions on Syria’s government and banks, and frozen the assets of Syrian officials implicated in Mr. Hariri’s killing.

But officials said this week that they were at the beginning stages of a plan to encourage Saudi Arabia and Egypt to make the case to the Syrians that they must turn against Hezbollah. With the crisis at such a pivotal stage, officials who are involved in the delicate negotiations to end it agreed to speak about their expectations only if they were not quoted by name.

“We think that the Syrians will listen to their Arab neighbors on this rather than us,’’ a senior official said, “so it’s all a question of how well that can be orchestrated.’’

There are several substantial hurdles to success. The effort risks seeming to encourage Syria to reclaim some of the influence on Lebanon that it lost after its troops were forced to withdraw last year. It is not clear how forcefully Arab countries would push a cause seen to benefit the United States and Israel. Many Middle Eastern analysts are skeptical that a lasting settlement can be achieved without direct talks between Syria and the United States.

The effort begins Sunday afternoon in the Oval Office, where President Bush is to meet the Saudi foreign minister, Saud al-Faisal, and the chief of the Saudi national security council, Prince Bandar bin Sultan. Prince Bandar was the Saudi ambassador to Washington until late last year and often speaks of his deep connections to the Bush family and to Vice President Dick Cheney.

Ms. Rice is delaying her departure to the Middle East until after the meeting, which she is also expected to attend, along with Mr. Cheney and Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser. The session was requested by the Saudis, American officials said.

The expected outcome of the session is unclear. “We don’t know how patient the Saudis will be with the Israeli military action,’’ said a senior official said. “They want to see Hezbollah wiped out, and they’d like to set back the Iranians.”

But in the Arab world, the official added, “they can’t be seen to be doing that too enthusiastically.’’

Several of Mr. Bush’s top aides said the plan was for Mr. Bush and other senior officials to press both Saudi Arabia and Egypt to prod Syria into giving up its links with Hezbollah, and with Iran. The administration, aside from its differences with Iran over nuclear programs and with Syria over its role in Lebanon, has also objected to both nations’ behavior toward their common neighbor, Iraq.

“They have to make the point to them that if things go bad in the Mideast, the Iranians are not going to be a reliable lifeline,’’ one of the administration officials said.

Another said, “There is a presumption that the Syrians have more at stake here than the Iranians, and they are more exposed.”

The American officials are calculating that pressure from Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan may help to get Syria on board.

But so far, there appears to be little discussion of offering American incentives to the Syrians to abandon Hezbollah, or even to stop arming it. The Bush administration has been deeply reluctant to make such offers, whether it is negotiating with Damascus or with the governments of Iran or North Korea.

Nor did President Bush sound any conciliatory notes in his radio address on Saturday. “For many years, Syria has been a primary sponsor of Hezbollah and it has helped provide Hezbollah with shipments of Iranian-made weapons,’’ he said. “Iran’s regime has also repeatedly defied the international community with its ambition for nuclear weapons and aid to terrorist groups. Their actions threaten the entire Middle East and stand in the way of resolving the current crisis and bringing lasting peace to this troubled region.”

The State Department lists Syria as a country that sends money to terrorist organizations. Syria’s ambassador to the United States, Imad Moustapha, has spent a lot of time on television in recent days, but he is often described as one of the loneliest ambassadors in Washington.

In the months after Sept. 11, Syria provided important assistance in the campaign against Al Qaeda. But relations soured as American officials complained that Syria did little to crack down on associates of Saddam Hussein who funneled money to the insurgency in Iraq through Syrian banks, or to stop the flow of insurgents across its border to Iraq. The United States imposed sanctions on Syria in 2004, and took further measures after Syrian officials were accused of involvement in Mr. Hariri’s assassination.

The idea is to try to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran, which have recently been drawn closer together by standoffs with Washington. Syria and Iran have been formally allied since the Iran-Iraq war began in 1980, but historically they were suspicious of each other.

“Historically and strategically, they are on opposing sides — the Arabs and the Persians,” Daniel Ayalon, Israel’s ambassador to the United States, said in an interview on Thursday. Now, he added, “the only Arab country to ally with Iran is Syria,” a position that has angered Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Syria, like most of the Arab world, is largely Sunni. Iran and Iraq are largely Shiite.

A Western diplomat said Arab leaders had had trouble getting President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to come to the telephone when they called to express concern about Hezbollah’s actions.

In 1996, when Israel and Hezbollah were fighting each other and bombs rained down on civilian populations, Secretary of State Warren Christopher spent 10 days shuttling between Damascus, Beirut and Jerusalem before brokering a cease-fire and an agreement by Israel and Hezbollah to leave civilians out of the fighting.

Ms. Rice has said she has no intention of duplicating Mr. Christopher’s approach. “I could have gotten on a plane and rushed over and started shuttling and it wouldn’t have been clear what I was shuttling to do,” she said Friday. “I have no interest in diplomacy for the sake of returning Lebanon and Israel to the status quo ante.”

Rather, the administration’s declared aim is to carry out United Nations Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarming of Hezbollah and the deployment of the Lebanese Army to southern Lebanon. Syria, which was forced to withdraw its troops from Lebanon last year, may well balk at efforts to enforce it.

But while analysts say it is possible for the Bush administration and Israel to work out a solution without including Syria in the diplomatic wrangling, it would be difficult. Some Bush administration officials, particularly at the State Department, are pushing to find a way to start talking to Syria again.

Mr. Bush on Saturday telephoned the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, from his ranch in Crawford, Tex., to discuss the widening crisis in Lebanon, and pledged the United States would assist the Turkish government as it battled the Kurdish Workers’ Party, the violent separatist movement. Turkey has been mentioned as a potential leader of the proposed United Nations plan to deploy an international force to the region to help cool the violence.

In Iran’s Streets, Aid to Hezbollah Stirs Resentment

The New York Times:

There is a huge amount of anger here about what is happening in Lebanon, but it is not all the result of Israeli bombs, missiles and artillery.

“Of course I am angry,’’ said Hamid Akbari, 30, a deliveryman. “All our income is going to Palestine and Hezbollah.”

For decades, Iran has been Hezbollah’s prime patron, helping create it as a Shiite Muslim militia and then nurture it with money, expertise and weapons. But now that Hezbollah is in the midst of full-blown fighting with Israel, Iranian officials have been adamant in insisting that they had nothing to do with the events that set off the crisis.

Part of the reason may be fear, or concern, that the United States and Europe would punish Iran, if it were proved otherwise. But Iranian officials may have a wary eye on their public. In interviews in central Tehran Saturday, person after person said the same thing: Iran should worry about Iran’s problems and not be dragged down by others’ battles.

“We Iranians have a saying,” said Ali Reza Moradi, 35, a portrait artist who works in a small booth downtown. “We should save our own house first and then save the mosque. A lot of people think this way. The government should help its people first, and then help the people in Lebanon.” READ MORE

With the ouster of the Sunni-led government in Iraq, and the routing of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Iran has seen its regional influence grow stronger. As the Sunni Arab capitals of Cairo, Amman, Jordan, and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, witnessed their own political influence in the region waning, Iran tried to fill the gap. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become extremely popular among many Arabs for his strong anti-Western and anti-Israeli language. And Iran’s role as patron of Hezbollah and Hamas has given it unrivaled influence over two radical groups that have set the regional agenda, more so than governments.

But the picture in Iran itself is a bit more nuanced. Although Iran sits atop one of the largest known oil reserves, it cannot refine enough gasoline to meet its own needs — and so prices are rising. Mr. Ahmadinejad may have been elected on a populist economic message, but on the streets people report more pain, more unemployment and higher prices.

Hamidreza Jalaipour, a sociologist and former government official, said that on this point Iranians might agree but that they were also fickle.

“Iranians are very sensitive and want our money to stay in the country and be spent for Iranians to solve their problems,’’ Mr. Jalaipour said. “But, you cannot rely on what they say because their opinion changes quickly, and if the war continues, they might say something else.”

Nevertheless, the Hezbollah crisis occurred at a time of already heightened anxiety. Many Iranians were already nervous about the potential for sanctions as a result of their government’s nuclear program. Iranians have rallied behind the line strongly promoted by their government, that nuclear power is their inalienable right. And while they may have been willing to tolerate further public isolation over something they see as their right, there is far less unity about standing up for Lebanon, many people said Saturday. Despite the country’s authoritarian leadership, Iranians are often outspoken about their political beliefs, and many were willing to be quoted by name.

“Let them fight with each other until they get tired,” said Reza Muhammadi, 33, who runs a small grocery in the center of town. “Arab countries are not supporting Hezbollah, but my country is? They are giving my share to the Arabs.”

Mr. Muhammad said he worked six days a week from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. to feed his family. So, he said, he had no tolerance for his government’s financial commitments abroad. “One percent of our budget has been approved by my Parliament to give to Palestine,” he said. “Why should I not get angry about this?”

In a recent edition of the daily newspaper Aftab-e Yazd, one reader wrote in saying: “Radio and television broadcast so many programs about Arab countries that I sometimes wonder if it is the Iranian TV or an Arab TV. Such vast and big propaganda has caused a kind of indifference and even negative sense toward Arab nations.”

Of course, such sentiments are not universal. There are people like Zahra Etefaghian, 51, who runs a small coffee shop near the art museum, who said: “We should really support them, and we should bear the consequences. At emergency times like this, we have to help Muslim people.”

But talk of direct Iranian actions in Lebanon is being officially discouraged — and denied. On Tuesday, a group calling itself the Headquarters for the Glory of Martyrs of the International Movement announced that it had an army of 55,000 would-be suicide bombers among its members and had already dispatched 27 to fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

A few days later Muhammad Hejazi, commander of the vigilante force known as the Basiji, said that reports about would-be suicide bombers going to Lebanon “have nothing to do with official organizations in the country.”

Everybody here, it seems, is going to great lengths to insist that Iran had no role in setting off this crisis, saying that Hezbollah was too far away, and too independent, to be controlled from Tehran.

“The Hezbollah forces have done a great job and have resisted well,” said Ali Akbar Hasehmi Rafsanjani, the former president and chairman of the Expediency Council, in recent public remarks. But, he added, “it is misleading to say that Iran and Syria are carrying this out.”

Even a figure like Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, who had been one of the founders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, commented cautiously about Iran’s role in the current conflict. “Iran cannot play an instrumental role because of the long distance,” he told the daily Etemad Melli recently. “Besides, Arab countries consider the issue of Palestine and Lebanon as an Arab issue,” he added, suggesting that Iran, as a non-Arab nation, should keep its distance.

Whether or not Iran played a role in actually inciting the crisis seemed irrelevant to people interviewed Saturday.

Ali Muhammadi runs a small DVD shop, a closet-size booth where he sells pirated DVD’s for about $1 each. “I don’t think it’s an important issue for us,” he said of the conflict in Lebanon. “I think the government should take care of its people first.”

Nazila Fathi contributed reporting for this article.

Iran general staff chief commander: the Arabs must close all oil pipelines to Israel

Iranian Student News Agency:

Iran's general staff chief commander commented that closing all oil pipelines to Israel was the at least thing which the Arabs could do and military measures should be their last. READ MORE

"Israel, U.K. and the U.S. attempts are all vague. They have started their Greater Middle East program by attacking Lebanon and are trying to crush Hezbollah so that in this way they could frighten the other countries," commented brigadier general Hassan Firouzabadi.

"They are trying to covey this message to Arab leaders that you should either kneel in favor of our demands or you will be treated as Lebanon. Arab leaders should perceive this message," emphasized Firouzabadi.

Iran will never enter Lebanon war: official

Iranian Student News Agency:

Iran will never be brought into the Lebanon war from the military standpoint, Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Hassan Firouzabadi said here Saturday. READ MORE

Firouzabadi's remarks came as he spoke to reporters on the sidelines of an Expediency Council session.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will just continue its political and diplomatic support for Lebanon," he said.

Pointing to the curent Zionist offensive in Lebanon, he said "the war will end in favor of the Lebanese people, with no changes being made to the country's borders, and victory for the Islamic world."

He noted that the Zionist regime's forces have not been able to position themselves in south Lebanon after 10 days of fighting because of the brave resistance of Hezbollah forces.

The official said that US President George W Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair had planned the war and then washed their hands by saying "Israelis got involved in the war."

Pointing to the US' Greater Middle East Initiative, Firouzabadi said that vital energy supplies of the West are in the Middle East region, and called on Arab states in the region to stop exporting their oil to Israel.

He said the US, Britain and Israel made the decision to attack Lebanon and that "the war is part of the US' Greater Middle East Initiative which they strive to materialize."

Ahmadinejad Pens Letter to Chirac

Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Monsters and Critics.com:

French President Jacques Chirac has received a letter from his Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Elysee Palace said Saturday. The letter had been written in 'very general terms' and had been handed over by the Iranian ambassador in Paris last Tuesday, the statement said without disclosing details of the contents or saying whether Chirac would reply.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel also received a letter from Ahmadinejad recently which was rejected Friday by the government as unacceptable.

The letter did mention Tehran's controversial uranium enrichment programme, German government spokesman Ulrich Wilhelm said it makes inflammatory comments about Israel and the Holocaust. READ MORE

The tone of Ahmadinejad's letter to Chirac had been different, the Le Monde newspaper reported in the issue to hit newsstands on Sunday.

Last May, Ahmadinejad wrote to US President George W Bush in which he also questioned Israel's right to exist.

America's Nemesis

James Kitfield, National Journal:

What if the United States went to war with the wrong country? The firestorm sparked by the Iranian-backed Islamic extremist group Hezbollah in the past week, and the host of crises erupting in the Middle East with Tehran's fingerprints on them, recall just how fateful a decision the Bush administration made in choosing Iraq as the main battlefield in its global war on terrorism. READ MORE

After 9/11, with U.S. military forces having quickly toppled the Taliban and routed Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, and with much of the world united in what was seen as a just cause against terrorists, American coercive power was at its pinnacle. Iran, flanked by U.S. forces to the east that were deposing the rival Taliban, and lumped by President Bush into an "axis of evil," actually opened secret negotiating channels to Washington in an effort to accommodate the wrathful superpower.

At that moment of maximum leverage, the Bush administration shifted its gaze and much of the world's attention next door -- to Tehran's old nemesis in Baghdad. That decision helps explain the escalating crisis in the region over the past week and also explains why a greatly emboldened Iran is becoming the greatest impediment to the U.S. campaign to stabilize the volatile Middle East and win Bush's "global war on terror."

In focusing on Iraq, the Bush administration argued that secular dictator Saddam Hussein was the central player at the nexus of terrorism, rogue-state support, and weapons of mass destruction. Certainly, more than a decade of United Nations sanctions had weakened and isolated Iraq, and undeniably made Saddam the low-hanging fruit among the "axis of evil."

But was Saddam really the figure most central to the radical Islamic insurgency that struck the United States on September 11, 2001? Was it Iraq, or the mullahs in Tehran, who provided the most ideological and financial succor to Muslim extremists and their cause of establishing an Islamic caliphate? Who was closest to having a nuclear weapon that might one day threaten the United States? Which nation had really engaged in a low-grade, undeclared war against America?

No Coincidences

Define your enemy as "global terrorism," and a war against any rogue state will do to teach the evildoers a lesson. The venom unleashed on America five years ago, however, had a very specific nature. Failure to grasp the varied sources of that poison and to sever the most-lethal nonstate terrorists from the support and technology of their most sympathetic rogue state has worked to empower the very forces threatening the United States.

"Invading Iraq played directly into the hands of Tehran, because we removed its historical rival and made Iran the unchallenged superpower in the Persian Gulf," said Fawaz Gerges, a Middle Eastern expert at Sarah Lawrence College, speaking from Beirut, Lebanon, where he was trapped by the present hostilities. "Now Iran sees the U.S. military held hostage to the shifting sands of Iraq. Tehran is flush with oil money, and they are making a determined effort to destabilize the region and acquire nuclear weapons."

Gerges and other counter-terrorism experts believe that when world leaders at the G-8 summit in Russia indicated their intention to send Iran's nuclear dossier to the U.N. Security Council, Iranian leaders green-lighted their proxy Hezbollah's attack on Israel, in part to relieve the international pressure and drive a wedge between the United States and other members of the Security Council.

"I expect we will soon see a similar escalation in violence in Iraq, because Iran is emboldened and radical forces throughout the region are feeling similarly empowered," said Gerges, author of the 2006 book "Journey of the Jihadist." Indeed, the hugely destructive bombings in Iraq in recent days may be a portent. "You cannot understand what Hezbollah did in southern Lebanon, in killing and kidnapping those Israeli soldiers, without grasping how radical groups in the region feel that their prospects have improved considerably."

Hezbollah's reemergence as a key player in the ongoing crisis also underscores just how short of the mark the U.S.-led global war on terror has fallen in de-legitimizing terrorism or ending its state sponsorship. Tehran's willingness to grant safe passage and sanctuary to Al Qaeda and to fund Hezbollah to the tune of $100 million annually have made a mockery of Bush's warning, delivered shortly after 9/11: "If anybody harbors a terrorist, they're a terrorist. If they fund a terrorist, they're a terrorist. If they house terrorists, they're terrorists."

Frances Townsend, the White House's chief counter-terrorism counselor, readily concedes that the international community continues to conduct normal business with a regime in Tehran that harbors, funds, and trains extremists and terrorist organizations that have continually spilled American blood.

"The unfortunate current events unfolding right now in Lebanon and Israel are only the latest manifestation of the state sponsorship of terrorism, which remains a huge problem. Let's not forget that before 9/11, the greatest loss of life for U.S. citizens from a terror act was committed by Hezbollah in the 1983 bombing of our Marine barracks in Beirut," Townsend told National Journal in an interview. "Frankly, nothing makes me angrier than states like Iran who continue to use terrorism as a deliberate extension of their foreign policy. I simply don't understand why the international community doesn't have the same sense of outrage over states using terrorism as a foreign-policy tool as they have over other scourges such as slavery and genocide."

To put Tehran's role in context of the conflagration now under way in the Middle East, imagine for a moment the case the United States might have made against Iran when the world was still listening -- before the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or any solid links between Saddam and Al Qaeda. Imagine where the United States would be in its global war on terror if it had succeeded, through diplomatic coercion or force, to get Iran out of the business of state-sponsored terrorism. Then ask yourself: Did the United States confront the wrong country?

Ties To Al Qaeda
In making the case for invading Iraq, Bush administration officials pointed in part to reported ties between Iraqi intelligence and Qaeda operatives. As the 9/11 commission report made clear, however, this connection originated from a single source in Czech intelligence who thought he saw 9/11 leader Mohamed Atta and an Iraqi intelligence official together in Prague in April of 2001. After a subsequent investigation by the Czech government and the FBI, the 9/11 commission concluded, "The available evidence does not support the original Czech report" of a meeting between Atta and the Iraqi intelligence official.

In contrast, U.S. intelligence services have found strong evidence of ties between Iranian-backed Hezbollah and Al Qaeda, even though the two groups stand on opposite sides of Islam's Shiite-Sunni divide. Qaeda operatives involved in the 1998 bombing of U.S. embassies in Africa testified in court of meetings between Osama bin Laden and Imad Mugniyah, an Iranian who heads Hezbollah's terror wing.

In fact, Al Qaeda's simultaneous suicide truck bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 raised disturbing echoes of Hezbollah's 1983 simultaneous suicide truck bombings of buildings in Beirut housing French paratroopers and U.S. marines. Mugniyah, who along with two other Hezbollah leaders is on the FBI's list of most wanted terrorists, has been directly tied to the 1983 bombings and to numerous other Hezbollah operations.

The 9/11 commission cited intelligence suggesting that as many as 10 of the 19 hijackers of September 11 traveled into or out of Iran between October 2000 and February 2001. In interrogations, 9/11 mastermind Khalid Shaikh Mohammed and other detainees described the willingness of Iranian officials to facilitate the travel of Qaeda members. Iranian border guards were instructed, for instance, not to place telltale stamps on Qaeda operatives' passports because they might draw the attention of Western border control agents.

In one especially suggestive case that is obviously based on communications intercepts, the 9/11 commission reported that Hezbollah operatives in Tehran in the 2000-2001 time period were expecting the arrival of a group important enough to merit the attention of "senior figures" in the terrorist organization. Perhaps coincidentally, but perhaps not, three of the future 9/11 hijackers and a close associate of a senior Hezbollah operative were all on the same plane to Iran during that time.

"In sum, there is strong evidence that Iran facilitated the transit of Al Qaeda members into and out of Afghanistan before 9/11, and that some of these were future 9/11 hijackers," the commission report concluded. "There also is circumstantial evidence that senior Hezbollah operatives were closely tracking the travel of some of these future muscle hijackers into Iran.... We have found no evidence that Iran or Hezbollah was aware of the planning for what later became the 9/11 attack.... We believe this topic requires further investigation by the U.S. government."

Surely after 9/11, Iran would dissolve any ties to Al Qaeda, heeding President Bush's warnings about supporting the group. Well, not exactly. U.S. officials have openly accused Iran of offering safe harbor to top Qaeda officials who escaped the U.S. dragnet in neighboring Afghanistan, reportedly including at least one and possibly more of bin Laden's sons, as well as Qaeda military commander Saif al-Adel and spokesman Suleiman Abu Ghaith.

"As far as we could tell, Iran didn't cooperate with Al Qaeda on an operational level, but there is no denying that Tehran allowed Al Qaeda fighters to transit its territory and offered them occasional sanctuary for R&R," said Michael Scheuer, the former head of the CIA's bin Laden unit and author of the 2004 book "Imperial Hubris." "Most indications suggest that the 20 or so important Al Qaeda fighters now in Iran are under a sort of house arrest, possibly to be used as bargaining chips. It's a reminder that the Iranians have always been very clever in determining exactly what level of terrorist support they can blithely engage in without putting themselves in our bull's-eye," Scheuer continued. "Clearly, they've determined that level includes allowing Al Qaeda to transit their country and find safe haven."

The Hezbollah Factor
On September 20, 2001, President Bush identified the threat that confronted the country after the terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington. "Our war on terror begins with Al Qaeda, but it does not end there," he declared. "It will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped, and defeated."

Counter-terrorism and intelligence experts had little doubt that the president was referring first and foremost to Hezbollah, by far the most deadly and widely emulated of the Islamist terror groups that had sprung up around the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Formed in 1982 by Iran's Revolutionary Guards to serve as a proxy in fighting Israeli forces that had invaded and seized the southern half of Lebanon, Hezbollah rapidly evolved and grew in Lebanon's almost perfect terrorism incubator of civil war, sanctuary, and massive state support from Iran and Syria.

The organization established a headquarters in the Muslim slums of Beirut, ran numerous terrorist training camps in the Bekaa Valley, and created a network of international cells for operations and fundraising that reached every continent. Hezbollah has its own propaganda wing that includes satellite television and radio stations and a splashy Web site.

"Hezbollah, as an organization with capability and worldwide presence, is Al Qaeda's equal, if not a far more capable organization," then-CIA Director George Tenet testified before Congress in 2003. "I actually think they're a notch above in many respects."

Almost from the beginning, Hezbollah displayed a superior operational competence. The group pioneered the tactic of suicide attacks that have increasingly come to define today's terrorist threat, and it quickly gained a reputation for producing the master bomb makers in the terrorist pantheon. Hezbollah's attack on the U.S. Embassy in Beirut on April 18, 1983, vaporized the building's lobby and killed 63 people, including 17 Americans, eight of whom worked for the CIA. It was the worst one-day loss of life in CIA history. Reportedly, the only traces left of the marine standing guard were the melted brass buttons of his tunic.

Hezbollah's simultaneous suicide truck bombings of the French and U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut six months later were even more devastating, killing 58 French paratroopers and 241 marines, the single largest peacetime loss for the U.S. military. The 19-ton blast was so powerful that the building's windows disintegrated into a molten glass spray that left surrounding trees glistening.

The group was also behind or closely connected to the hijacking of TWA Flight 847 and the murder of a U.S. Navy diver in 1985; the kidnapping of numerous Westerners in Beirut in the 1980s; the taking of 18 American hostages there in the same period (three of the Americans were murdered, including the CIA's Beirut station chief William Buckley); the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires that killed 29 people and wounded hundreds; and the 1994 bombing of the Argentine-Jewish Mutual Association building in Argentina that left 86 people dead. At Iran's behest, Hezbollah was behind the murder of numerous Iranian dissidents in Europe in the 1980s and early 1990s.

Bruce Hoffman, a longtime counter-terrorism expert at the Rand think tank, participated in the investigation of the Hezbollah bombings in Argentina and was struck by the group's close operational ties to Iran. "There were a lot of suggestions that Iranian diplomatic personnel were directly involved in facilitating those attacks, and Hezbollah's Mugniyah was indicted by an Argentine court, but Iran still managed to skirt any international sanction," he said. "It shows you how skilled Iranian security service personnel and the Revolutionary Guards are at operating in the shadows."

Hezbollah And Palestinians
The symbiotic relationship between senior Iranian officials and their Hezbollah proxies was revealed in painstaking detail, however, during the investigation of the 1996 terrorist bombing of the Khobar Towers dormitory in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 U.S. airmen. In a recent article, former FBI Director Louis Freeh charged senior members of the Iranian government, including officials in the defense ministry, the intelligence and security ministry, and the spiritual leader's office, with directly commissioning the Saudi arm of Hezbollah to carry out the attack. According to Freeh, the bombers admitted that they were trained by Iranian external security services in Hezbollah's Bekaa Valley training camps and said they got their passports at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria, along with $250,000 cash for the operation.

According to the popular narrative, Hezbollah evolved in the last decade from its roots as a terrorist organization to a resistance movement focused on using guerrilla warfare to expel Israeli forces from Lebanon. The group perfected its hit-and-run attacks in that war, lowering the casualty ratio between Hezbollah fighters and Israeli soldiers from 10-to-1 to 1-to-1.

The withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon in 2000 after 18 years of occupation was a propaganda bonanza for Hezbollah. Many in the region gave the group credit as the only Arab force in arms ever to cause the Israelis to retreat. Today, Hezbollah has 23 members in the Lebanese parliament and operates a social-services network that includes hospitals and schools in many communities in southern Lebanon, a stronghold sometimes dubbed "Hezbollahland."

While some commentators believe that Hezbollah has truly moderated, counter-terrorism experts say that the organization has instead turned its focus to training and equipping Palestinian terror groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Those ties go back at least to the early 1990s, when 450 Hamas activists expelled from Israel reportedly ended up in Hezbollah's Lebanese training camps.

In this view, it was no coincidence that the current intifada by Palestinian militants began when Israel was vacating Lebanon and Hezbollah was looking for ways to carry on the fight. Of course, the most recent crisis began when Hezbollah timed its July 12 attack to open a second front for Israeli forces already engaged in fighting in the Gaza Strip -- following an almost identical hit-and-kidnap operation by Hamas.

"I think it's nothing more than wishful thinking to say that Hezbollah has moderated," Hoffman said. Working through Palestinian terror groups and doing Iran's bidding behind the scenes, he said, are consistent with Hezbollah's history. "The present crisis in Lebanon and Gaza is tailor-made to suit their agenda. Just when it looked like we were making some progress in stabilizing Lebanon's democracy, Hezbollah has once again provoked a crisis and an Israeli response that has driven a wedge between the U.S. and many of its allies and partners, and has diverted attention from Iran's nuclear program. And given the radical views expressed by Iranian President [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad," Hoffmann added, "we have to assume there's a strong signal coming from Tehran for Hezbollah to pursue a more radical agenda in Lebanon but perhaps elsewhere as well."

Destabilizing Iraq
When Zalmay Khalilzad was the U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan after the U.S. invasion, he was given rare permission as a top U.S. official to speak directly with one of his Iranian counterparts. The United States and Iran had had no diplomatic relations since shortly after the 1979 revolution and the hostage-taking at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. To break the ice, Khalilzad joked with his Iranian counterpart that one day the United States was going to send Tehran the bill for taking care of its regional Taliban antagonists to the east and its nemesis Saddam Hussein to the west. On a recent trip to Washington, Khalilzad, now the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, wasn't joking anymore.

"We have to be candid in acknowledging the challenge posed by a few countries, such as Syria and Iran. Iran has played a role in providing extremist groups with arms, training, and money.... Iran is playing a double role.On the one hand, it's got good state-to-state relations, but on the other hand, it's also helping extremist groups and that is not acceptable," said Khalilzad, speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

If Iran persists in its efforts to destabilize Iraq, Khalilzad warned, the Iraqi government and the United States are developing a campaign and an array of countermeasures to thwart its activities in Iraq. "Strategically, it's possible that since Iraq was a balancer vis-a -vis Iran, and Iran sees itself as the natural hegemon, entitled to regional domination, that it doesn't want Iraq to reemerge to play that role."

That Iran would feel emboldened to play such a risky double game, and to arm militia and extremist groups that regularly spill the blood of U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq speaks volumes about how weak the Iranians judge the U.S. position to be in the region. With more than 150,000 U.S. troops tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan, Tehran clearly believes that Bush's warnings of "regime change," which appeared very serious just three years ago, now amount to empty threats.

An attack on Iran that mirrored the light force-to-population ratio that the United States employed in the invasion of Iraq would require nearly half a million troops, a nonstarter for a U.S. military already stretched dangerously thin. The distances from the border to Tehran are also much longer than the run to Baghdad was, and the routes span mountainous terrain and contain numerous potential chokepoints.

Given Americans' dwindling support for the Iraq war and given the global alarm over the record price of oil, Tehran is also betting that the United States is unlikely to win international support for any action that might risk closing the strategic oil sea lane at the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily.

"The Iranians see big, bad America bogged down in a quagmire in the region, and think they smell strategic weakness," said Paul Pillar, formerly the CIA's top intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia. "Iran is still avoiding the really nasty stuff it did in the 1980s such as fomenting revolutions in the Persian Gulf states and assassinating Iranian dissidents all over Europe -- which has rehabilitated Iran's image to the point where the United States is really the odd man out internationally in imposing sanctions," Pillar said. "But Iran continues to foment violence against Israel, it has maintained its relationship with Hezbollah, and it is helping to arm and train Shiite militia groups in Iraq, while falling short of instigating actual attacks."

In Iraq, U.S. and coalition forces believe they recognize the fingerprints of a familiar hand. Last year, for instance, British Prime Minister Tony Blair declared that a bombing that killed eight British soldiers in Iraq bore the hallmarks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards or Hezbollah. American military officials strongly suspect that Iran is helping to arm the militia of renegade Iraqi cleric Moktada al-Sadr, which engaged U.S. forces in pitched battles in the spring of 2004 and precipitated the worst crisis of the U.S. occupation.

In fact, Iranian efforts to arm and train al-Sadr's "Mahdi Army" disturbingly resemble the blueprint Iran followed with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian terror groups in Gaza and the West Bank. Earlier this year, al-Sadr traveled to Tehran and publicly pledged to come to Iran's defense if it was attacked by the United States.

"Iran continues to provide militias in Iraq with 'shaped charges' that can penetrate our armor and are responsible for a great deal of the catastrophic injuries that coalition and Iraqi forces are suffering, so we do have that ax to grind," said a knowledgeable U.S. military officer. "But as usual, Iran has walked a fine line and maintained plausible deniability by using proxies like Hezbollah and these Shiite militia groups, and we've done a poor job of defining red lines that they cannot cross without paying a disproportionate price."

Looking at the situation from Tehran's perspective, the officer said, it's easy to see why Iran is feeling emboldened. "We've removed the Taliban threat from the east and the Iraqi threat from the west, and that's given them a lot of operational breathing room. The only force that can challenge them in the region is the U.S. military, which I believe is helping generate Iran's push to acquire nuclear weapons in order to deter us."

Atomic Iran
When the Bush administration built its case in 2003 that Iraq was imminently close to acquiring nuclear weapons, officials relied on intelligence indicating that Saddam had sought aluminum tubes for use in centrifuges to enrich uranium, and "yellow cake" uranium ore from Niger. Most of the rest of the administration's evidence on Iraq's supposed nuclear program was more than a decade old. As it turned out, the aluminum tubes were intended for rockets or artillery, and the "yellow cake" purchase probably never happened.

By contrast, in 2002 an Iranian dissident group had revealed -- and the International Atomic Energy Agency later confirmed -- that Iran had secretly constructed two nuclear facilities, including a uranium enrichment plant in the town of Natanz. That was a clear violation of Iran's commitment to transparency as a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. IAEA inspectors and U.S. intelligence had also tied Iran to the black-market nuclear-smuggling ring of A.Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb who was also peddling nuclear weapons technology and blueprints to North Korea and Libya.

"There's a host of evidence suggesting that Iran has been engaged in undeclared nuclear activity for 18 years with the goal of acquiring a weapon, and every time they've been confronted with evidence of their concealment, the Iranians just say, 'Oh, that was an oversight,'" said Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. "It's impossible to know for sure when Iran might produce a nuclear weapon, but at this rate I'd say it could be sometime in the next one to four years."

After the election of the radical and former Revolutionary Guardsman Ahmadinejad as president of Iran last year, that prospect has become even more alarming. Since taking office, Ahmadinejad has famously declared that Israel should be "wiped from the face of the Earth." And in a baffling speech to the U.N. General Assembly, he pronounced as his divine purpose preparation for the second coming of the "12th Imam," which a Shiite religious cult claims will occur only after the Apocalypse. Ahmadinejad, who fired 40 Iranian ambassadors and replaced them with hard-liners who come mainly from the Revolutionary Guards, has also stated that "a world without America" is "attainable and surely can be achieved."

Larry Haas, a visiting senior fellow at Georgetown's Environmental Affairs Institute who has written extensively on Iran, says, "I think with Iran we're in a uniquely dangerous situation. We now have the most aggressive state sponsor of terrorism headed by a president with a shaky grasp on reality, who believes it's his religious destiny to provoke a confrontation with the West as a prelude to the end of the world and the return of the 12th Imam."

Nor is the hot rhetoric coming solely from Ahmadinejad. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has publicly promised to share nuclear capability with allies and friends such as Sudan, a former sanctuary for Osama bin Laden and other members of Al Qaeda. One of Khamenei's top aides claims to have a strategy drawn up "for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization," down to a level of detail of "29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and West" that Iran has "already spied on, and we know how we are going to attack them." Haas says, "I think prudence demands we take these people at their word, because the world will be a very different place if they acquire nuclear weapons."

Journalism does not allow for "counterfactual history," or a clear look down the road not taken at historic turning points. Yet it's tempting to wonder how different the world might be if then-Secretary of State Colin Powell had been armed with the facts about Iran instead of Iraq when he addressed the United Nations and the world on February 5, 2003:

"When we confront a regime that harbors ambitions for regional domination, hides weapons of mass destruction, and provides haven and active support for terrorists, we're not confronting the past, we are confronting the present," Powell said that fateful day. "And unless we act, we are confronting an even more frightening future."