Saturday, April 01, 2006

Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [3/26/06 -4/01/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran's Nuclear Program. The UN Security Council gives Iran 30 days.
  • The New York Times reported that the Bush administration and Russia are struggling to forge a joint strategy on Iran. Russia is concerned about a possible replay of the United States' using resolutions by the Council to confront Iran in the same way it acted against Iraq.
  • Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the final victory in the nuclear dispute would be with the Iranian nation despite Western intimidation. He added: "we will even demand compensation (from the West) for the loss of the last two and a half years."
  • Rooz Online reported that in recent testimony before the Iranian parliament, the minority reformist faction in the Majlis criticized Ali Larijani, head of Iran's nuclear negotiating team, for providing the MPs with irrelevant and incorrect information.
  • Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official said military strikes against Iran's nuclear sites would not destroy the Islamic republic's uranium enrichment activities, which could be easily moved and restarted.
  • RIA Novosti reported that Iran may continue nuclear talks with Moscow.
  • MosNews reported that U.S. and Russian diplomats were meeting in a new bid to end the impasse over a UN response to Iran’s controversial nuclear program.
  • U.S. Department of State reported that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice traveled to Germany, France and the United Kingdom to consult with trans-Atlantic partners on the Iranian nuclear program.
  • Reuters reported that Germany said the EU could consider letting Iran pursue limited nuclear enrichment if the U.N. Security Council agreed.
  • Xinhua reported that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Iran should give a clear answer to Russia's offer to set up a uranium enrichment joint venture on Russian territory.
  • FOX News reported that Iran has proposed setting up a nuclear fuel production facility within its borders with international help.
  • Reuters reported that Iran's ambassador to the IAEA said the Islamic Republic's research on atomic enrichment was proceeding well and was on track to be expanded.
  • The New York Times reported that European and American diplomats circulated a new and weaker draft statement to the Security Council but requires the director of the nuclear agency to report back on Iran's compliance with the Security Council statement in 30 days.
  • The Times Online reported that the UN Security Council has given Tehran a month to halt its uranium enrichment program.
  • The Washington Post reported that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the US Senate that Iran was a menace for reasons other than its alleged drive to build a nuclear bomb and that the U.S. and its allies have "a number of tools" if Tehran does not change its ways. She said: "I think there's no doubt that Iran is the single biggest threat from a state that we face."
  • Insight Magazine reported that the U.S. intelligence community has concluded that U.N. Security Council sanctions would fail to stop Iran's nuclear weapons program.
  • CNSNews reported that the head of the Arab League called on the world's Arab states to pursue "peaceful" nuclear energy programs.
  • Breitbart reported that Iran defiantly rejected a U.N. call to reimpose a freeze on uranium enrichment.
  • Bloomberg reported that the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council will use a meeting in Berlin to discuss action to take after the council told Iran to stop enriching uranium.
  • The New York Times reported that members of the UN Security Council are rejecting calls for sanctions on Iran.
  • Xinhua reported that Russia called on Iran to carefully study the statement released by the UN Security Council on its nuclear issue and cooperate.
  • The Washington Post examined the question: Could Sanctions Stop Iran?
  • Vital Perspective published the text of the Security Council presidential statement on Iran.
  • Reuters reported that Iran's influential former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, said that putting the U.N. Security Council in charge of the Iranian nuclear file risked harming Iran, the region and the West.
  • LA Times reported that Iran's foreign minister sought to play down the possibility of a confrontation over Iran's efforts to develop nuclear know-how.
Another earthquake in Iran.
  • AP.org reported that two strong earthquakes flattened villages in western Iran early Friday, many dead and injured.
  • Yahoo News reported that President Bush offered assistance Friday to earthquake victims in Iran, saying the United States cares about the suffering of the Iranian people.
  • IranMania reported that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Friday offered US humanitarian aid to the victims of the earthquake in Iran.
  • Reuters reported that relief efforts are under way after a series of earthquakes on Thursday night struck Iran's western Lorestan province with over 300 villages in the remote area were reportedly affected, with between 30 and 100 percent of homes damaged.
  • Photos of the earthquake damage.
  • Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that Iran rejected the U.S. offer of aid to the victims of the recent earthquake here.
Iran's Dissidents.
  • Rooz Online reported that while Iranians around the world celebrated the Persian New Year its prisons are full of political and religious dissidents.
  • Amnesty International reported on the imminent execution of Fatemeh Haghighat-Pajouh.
Iranian Leaders On the Offensive.
  • Khaleej Times Online reported that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urged Iranians to resist the enemy’s threats.”
  • Reuters reported that a senior Iranian official said military strikes against Iran's nuclear sites would not destroy the Islamic republic's uranium enrichment activities, which could be easily moved and restarted.
  • Haaretz reported that in a meeting with former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei explained why Iran must declare war on Israel and the United States until they are completely destroyed.
Power Struggle inside of Iran?
  • Rooz Online reported that Iranian President Ahmadinejad accused former president Khatami of treason.Do the frequent travels of these people to Europe with public funds, and their provision of information to them not constitute spying?”
  • Rooz Online has learned that a number of reformist groups in Iran have sent a confidential letter to ayatollah Khamenei regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, calling on him to prevent the country from falling into more serious crisis.
Iranian regime leaders & the western media.
  • Steven Ekovich, Iran va Jahan reported that the Islamic Republic News Agency distorted an interview with him.
The Unrest inside of Iran.
  • Reuters reported that three members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards were killed in a clash with Kurdish separatists.
Human Rights/Freedom of the press inside of Iran.
  • The Guardian reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is cracking down on Iran's universities in an effort to crush a student pro-democracy movement.
  • Institute for War & Peace reported on the efforts of the Iranian regime to eliminate the Iranian Turkmen language and identity.
  • USA Today reported that blogs are now under attack by Iran's hard-line regime.
  • Radio Free Europe reported that the UN special rapporteur on freedom of religion, Asma Jahangir, disclosed an official Iranian government letter that reportedly tells government agencies to collect information -- "in a highly confidential manner" -- about Baha'i members. She explained why the information will likely be used to persecute and discriminate against Baha'i believers.
Iran's Oil Weapon.
Rumors of War.
  • News Max reported that Reza Pahlavi said he is "totally against" a U.S. military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.'
  • The Guardian reported that Jack Straw today insisted that military action against Iran would be neither "appropriate or conceivable."
  • BBC News examined whether the US will use the military option to stop Iran's nuclear program.
  • Telegraph reported plans by Britain to hold a high-level meeting which will take place in the Ministry of Defense at which senior defence chiefs and government officials to consider the consequences of an attack on Iran.
  • BBC News later reported that the Ministry of Defense said: "No such meeting between defense, foreign office and other officials is taking place."
Support for Internal Regime Change in Iran.
  • Department of State announced an open competition for grant applications that support democratic governance and reform in Iran.
  • The Financial Times reported that President George W. Bush stepped into an intense debate among democracy activists in the US and Iran over how US dollars should be used to carry out the administration’s policy of promoting freedom in the Islamic republic.
  • The Guardian reported that the US is encouraged by the increasing unrest among Iran's numerous ethnic and religious minorities as it steps up efforts to destabilize and if possible bring down the hard-line Islamic Republic.
Iran's Military.
  • Rooz Online reported that military, intelligence, security and police forces in Iran have been put on alert during the Persian New Year holidays and that all leaves have been suspended.
  • Middle East Newsline reported that Britain continues to approve the export of military and security equipment to the Islamic republic.
  • Iran Focus reported that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces in western and south-western Iran close to the Iraqi border have been put on a heightened state of alert.
  • Yahoo News reported that thousands of Iranian troops will on Friday start a week-long military maneuver in the Gulf to ready armed forces for warding off "threats."
  • Times Online reported that Iran today test-fired a new missile with the ability to avoid radar and hit several targets simultaneously.
  • Islamic Republic News Agency during a joint Iranian maritime war-game in the Persian Gulf, reported that: "One unit of Shahab 2 missile is to be launched to resemble peace and friendship among littoral states of the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman."
  • Dow Jones Newswires reported that the U.S. State Department said Iran's successful test of a nuclear-capable missile demonstrates Iran's "very active and aggressive military program" that is worrisome to the world.
  • The Washington Post reported that Iran's armed forces on Friday successfully test fired a domestically produced missile which can evade radar, adding: "This technology is completely new, without copying any other missile systems that may exist in other countries."
Aircrash in Iran.
  • Reuters reported that a cargo plane crashed west of Tehran.
Iran's Troublemaking in Iraq.
  • Mehran Riazaty examined the statement by the head of Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), Abdul Aziz Hakim when he said that Iran isn't interfering in internal Iraqi affairs.
  • Ha'aretz reported that Palestinians have for the first time fired the powerful Katyusha rocket believed by many to be of Iranian manufacture.
  • Mehran Riazaty reported that Iranian supported Moqtada Sadr’s spokesman said: All of the Al-Qaeda’s Terrorist operations in Iraq are directed by the US Forces.
US/Iran talks on hold.
  • The Guardian reported that the promised talks between the US and Iran on the situation in Iraq have been put on hold.
  • Mehran Riazaty reported that the Badr Organization in Iraq urged expulsion of US ambassador to Iraq, Zelmai Khalilzad.
Iran and the International community.
  • Telegraph reported that Liam Fox, the [UK] shadow defense secretary, has accused Jack Straw of making a "pretty big mistake" by ruling out military intervention in Iran.
  • Turkishpress.com reported that fears of an increasing Iranian role in Iraq appeared to loom over the annual summit of Arab leaders.
  • The New York Times reported that German prosecutors claimed that several million dollars' worth of equipment that could be used for a nuclear program had been shipped from Germany to Iran, via a Russian company.
  • World Tribune reported that Nigeria has sought Iranian help in establishing a defense industry.
  • Iranian.ws reported that the Central Bank of Iran denied news reports on withdrawal of 250 tons of Iran's gold reserves from the Swiss Credit Bank. These reports say Iran has withdrawn 700 tons of its gold reserves, since October to unknown destinations.
Insight into the Iranian mind.
  • Zaneirani, an Iranian blogger, asked why sympathizers of the Iranian regime have the permission to live in the U.S. while others get the black stamp in their passport!
Must Read reports.
  • Rooz Online published an interview with Hassan Abbassi, Ahmadinejad's chief strategic guru, who said: "We are able to endanger both, US security and its economic interests anywhere in the world."
  • Charles Krauthammer, Time Magazine sees the end of civilization, if we fail to prevent an Iranian regime run by apocalyptic fanatics from going nuclear.
  • Anne Bayefsky, The National Review argued why the latest action by the UN Security Council is a a win for Iran.
  • The Washington Post reported that U.S. intelligence and terrorism experts say they believe Iran would respond to U.S. military strikes with attacks against U.S. targets worldwide.
The Experts.
  • Amir Taheri, The New York Post warned that the indecision and slow pace of action by the Western powers towards Iran amounts to a clear encouragement of the most radical factions in Tehran.
  • Michael Ledeen, National Review Online reminded the US government is ignoring the fact that Iran is at war with the US and they are convincing the world that they have already won in Iraq. He also reported massive troop movements inside Iran designed to battle the under-reported ethnic unrest there.
  • Middle East Economic Survey reported that the Joint Economic Committee of the US Congress issued a report which states that "support for terrorism and economic mismanagement by the government have damaged oil and gas development in Iran." Full text of the report.
  • Amir Taheri, The Wall Street Journal reported how Iran's Hassan Abbasi, the principal foreign policy voice in President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, believes the US will be forced from the Middle East. A must read.
  • Ilan Berman, The Jourmal of International Security Affairs suggested that Washington may soon find a much more constructive tenor to its long-running dialogue with Moscow over Iran.
  • The Times reported that the Badr organisation, trained in exile by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards was deliberately recruited by Britain to join the new Iraqi security services after Saddam Hussein was overthrown.
  • Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat argued there is no civil war in Iraq: here is why.
Photos, cartoons and videos.
  • Photos of the earthquake damage.
And finally, The Quote of the Week.
Haaretz reported that in a meeting with former Spanish prime minister Jose Maria Aznar, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Anzar recounted:

"He received me politely," Aznar wrote, "and at the beginning of the meeting he explained to me why Iran must declare war on Israel and the United States until they are completely destroyed. I made only one request of him: that he tell me the time of the planned attack."

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 4.2.2006:

Intel: Iran would strike US targets in response to military strikes
.
  • The Washington Post reported that U.S. intelligence and terrorism experts say they believe Iran would respond to U.S. military strikes with attacks against U.S. targets worldwide.
Britain secret talks about strike against Iran? Denied.
  • Telegraph reported plans by Britain to hold a high-level meeting which will take place in the Ministry of Defense at which senior defence chiefs and government officials to consider the consequences of an attack on Iran.
  • BBC News later reported that the Ministry of Defense said: "No such meeting between defense, foreign office and other officials is taking place."
Iran rejects US offer of earthquake aid.
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.
  • LA Times reported that Iran's foreign minister sought to play down the possibility of a confrontation over Iran's efforts to develop nuclear know-how.
  • Iranian.ws reported that the Central Bank of Iran denied news reports on withdrawal of 250 tons of Iran's gold reserves from the Swiss Credit Bank. These reports say Iran has withdrawn 700 tons of its gold reserves, since October to unknown destinations.
  • The Guardian reported that the US is encouraged by the increasing unrest among Iran's numerous ethnic and religious minorities as it steps up efforts to destabilize and if possible bring down the hard-line Islamic Republic.
Keyword:

Iran Minister Downplays Chances of Nuclear Face-Off

Maggie Farley, LA Times:
Iran's foreign minister said Friday that his country would not give up its right to develop nuclear know-how, but sought to play down the possibility of a confrontation over it.

In speeches for international audiences on Thursday and Friday, Manuchehr Mottaki stepped back from the escalation promised earlier by Tehran if Iran's nuclear issue was taken up by the United Nations Security Council. On Wednesday, the 15-member council demanded that Iran cease uranium enrichment within 30 days.

Although Mottaki made it clear that Iran had no plans to stop enrichment, he said that his country would not use oil as a weapon and that it would not withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. He also renewed a proposal for an international nuclear fuel consortium in Iran to operate under strict supervision of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. READ MORE

Iran made the same offer last year, and it was rejected by the United States.

"I wish to stress that Iran's nuclear question can be approached from two perspectives: Cooperation and interaction or confrontation and conflict. I underline that my country has prepared itself for both possibilities," Mottaki said Friday in a speech to a Geneva security think tank that was broadcast by video link to a conference at Princeton University.

For the moment, Iran's strategy seems to be to issue a series of mixed messages that reflect domestic divisions, as well as an attempt to maintain the nuclear program while avoiding international isolation, experts say. In an apparent show of strength Friday, Iran's military announced it had successfully test-fired a radar-eluding missile with multiple warheads.

U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said that the missile test underscored Iran's determination to pursue weapons, including nuclear arms.

"I think it demonstrates that Iran has a very active and aggressive military program underway," he said. "That includes both, as we've talked about before, efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction, as well as delivery systems."

Iran's dual signals also exploit international uncertainty on how to move forward, say experts.

"It has been the general pattern over the two months to send a message that they are ready to talk, but at the same time, show a very resolute defiance," said M. Hadi Semati, a Tehran University professor who is a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. "They are trying to send a signal that they won't concede but won't provoke, either."

Iranian President Mohammed Ahmedinejad has won popularity at home with his defense of Iran's right to develop nuclear technology and his hard-line statements about wiping Israel "off the map." However, his comments have raised concern, both in the international community and among moderates at home who fear that he is pushing Iran into a conflict.

Ali Ansari, an expert on Iranian history at Scotland's St. Andrew's University, said Iranian officials were taken off guard by the nuclear issue being referred to the U.N. Security Council.

"The report to the Security Council was not expected," he said. "The experience for three years had been that the West would back down."

In the Security Council, a show of unity is papering over divisions. Of the five permanent members with veto power, the United States, France and Britain are pushing for sanctions if Iran fails to stop uranium enrichment activities that could be used for producing energy or weapons. But China and Russia oppose sanctions without clear evidence that Iran is a threat.

The council asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to report in 30 days on Iran's compliance. A negative conclusion would pave the way for sanctions. But the agency's director-general, Mohamed ElBaradei, said Thursday that Iran did not pose an immediate threat and that sanctions would not be helpful. He urged all parties to tone down their rhetoric.

In his remarks to the U.N.'s Disarmament Conference in Geneva on Thursday, Mottaki expressed confidence that the Security Council did not have the unity to impose harsh penalties.

"We don't think there is a lot of chance of sanctions being put into place," he said.

In a meeting Thursday of foreign ministers from the permanent Security Council members and Germany, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reportedly failed to muster support for targeted sanctions that would not affect ordinary Iranians, such as a travel ban and freeze on the assets of Iranian leaders. That leaves diplomats scrambling for alternatives.

One proposal floated by the International Crisis Group think tank calls for a three-phase, decade-long program in which Iran would suspend enrichment for a few years to build confidence, then do limited amounts under close supervision. The U.S. has rejected the idea, contending that once Iran gains the technology to do a limited amount of enrichment, it can easily replicate it and secretly operate a parallel enrichment program.

"The alternative is use of force, which people are talking about, but nobody really thinks is feasible or effective," Semati, of Tehran University, said. "It very much depends on the next few months and how the puzzle pieces fit, and how Russia and China react. But after Iraq, they have serious concerns that proliferation is a tool of other objectives, namely regime change."

Iran's gold reserves in Swiss withdrawn, mullahs deny

Iranian.ws:
Mullahs' cronies in Central Bank of Iran on Friday denied the news published in a Swiss daily on withdrawal of 250 tons of Iran's gold reserves from that country's Credit Bank.

The Central Bank official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told the Economy Desk at IRNA Head office in Tehran Desk, "The news published in the Thursday edition of the Bern-based daily Der Bund, on Iran's withdrawal of 250 tons of its gold reserves, worth five billion Swiss francs, and transferring them to Tehran is totally baseless."

Der Bund had added in its story that apparently Iran has ever since last October withdrawn 700 tons of its gold reserves, worth sixteen billion Swiss franks, from various Western monetary funds and transferred them to other unknown destinations.

Experts: Iran May Retaliate With Terror If Nuclear Sites Attacked

Dana Priest, The Washington Post:
As tensions increase between the United States and Iran, U.S. intelligence and terrorism experts say they believe Iran would respond to U.S. military strikes on its nuclear sites by deploying its intelligence operatives and Hezbollah teams to carry out terrorist attacks worldwide.

Iran would mount attacks against U.S. targets inside Iraq, where Iranian intelligence agents are already plentiful, predicted these experts. There is also a growing consensus that Iran's agents would target civilians in the United States, Europe and elsewhere, they said.

U.S. officials would not discuss what evidence they have indicating Iran would undertake terrorist action, but the matter "is consuming a lot of time" throughout the U.S. intelligence apparatus, one senior official said. "It's a huge issue," another said. READ MORE

Citing prohibitions against discussing classified information, U.S. intelligence officials declined to say whether they have detected preparatory measures, such as increased surveillance, counter-surveillance or message traffic, on the part of Iran's foreign-based intelligence operatives.

But terrorism experts considered Iranian-backed or controlled groups -- namely the country's Ministry of Intelligence and Security operatives, its Revolutionary Guards and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah -- to be better organized, trained and equipped than the al-Qaeda network that carried out the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

The Iranian government views the Islamic Jihad, the name of Hezbollah's terrorist organization, "as an extension of their state. . . . operational teams could be deployed without a long period of preparation," said Ambassador Henry A. Crumpton, the State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism.

The possibility of a military confrontation has been raised only obliquely in recent months by President Bush and Iran's government. Bush says he is pursuing a diplomatic solution to the crisis, but he has added that all options are on the table for stopping Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons.

Speaking in Vienna last month, Javad Vaeedi, a senior Iranian nuclear negotiator, warned the United States that "it may have the power to cause harm and pain, but it is also susceptible to harm and pain. So if the United States wants to pursue that path, let the ball roll," although he did not specify what type of harm he was talking about.

Government officials said their interest in Iran's intelligence services is not an indication that a military confrontation is imminent or likely, but rather a reflection of a decades-long adversarial relationship in which Iran's agents have worked secretly against U.S. interests, most recently in Iraq and Pakistan. As confrontation over Iran's nuclear program has escalated, so has the effort to assess the threat from Iran's covert operatives.

U.N. Security Council members continue to debate how best to pressure Iran to prove that its nuclear program is not meant for weapons. The United States, Britain and France want the Security Council to threaten Iran with economic sanctions if it does not end its uranium enrichment activities. Russia and China, however, have declined to endorse such action and insist on continued negotiations. Security Council diplomats are meeting this weekend to try to break the impasse. Iran says it seeks nuclear power but not nuclear weapons.

Former CIA terrorism analyst Paul R. Pillar said that any U.S. or Israeli airstrike on Iranian territory "would be regarded as an act of war" by Tehran, and that Iran would strike back with its terrorist groups. "There's no doubt in my mind about that. . . . Whether it's overseas at the hands of Hezbollah, in Iraq or possibly Europe, within the regime there would be pressure to take violent action."

Before Sept. 11, the terrorist arm of Hezbollah, often working on behalf of Iran, was responsible for more American deaths than any other terrorist group. In 1983 Hezbollah truck-bombed the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, killing 241, and in 1996 truck-bombed Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia, killing 19 U.S. service members.

Iran's intelligence service, operating out of its embassies around the world, assassinated dozens of monarchists and political dissidents in Europe, Pakistan, Turkey and the Middle East in the two decades after the 1979 Iranian revolution, which brought to power a religious Shiite government. Argentine officials also believe Iranian agents bombed a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994, killing 86 people. Iran has denied involvement in that attack.

Iran's intelligence services "are well trained, fairly sophisticated and have been doing this for decades," said Crumpton, a former deputy of operations at the CIA's Counterterrorist Center. "They are still very capable. I don't see their capabilities as having diminished."

Both sides have increased their activities against the other. The Bush administration is spending $75 million to step up pressure on the Iranian government, including funding non-governmental organizations and alternative media broadcasts. Iran's parliament then approved $13.6 million to counter what it calls "plots and acts of meddling" by the United States.

"Given the uptick in interest in Iran" on the part of the United States, "it would be a very logical assumption that we have both ratcheted up [intelligence] collection, absolutely," said Fred Barton, a former counterterrorism official who is now vice president of counterterrorism for Stratfor, a security consulting and forecasting firm. "It would be a more fevered pitch on the Iranian side because they have fewer options."

The office of the director of national intelligence, which recently began to manage the U.S. intelligence agencies, declined to allow its analysts to discuss their assessment of Iran's intelligence services and Hezbollah and their capabilities to retaliate against U.S. interests.

"We are unable to address your questions in an unclassified manner," a spokesman for the office, Carl Kropf, wrote in response to a Washington Post query.

The current state of Iran's intelligence apparatus is the subject of debate among experts. Some experts who spent their careers tracking the intelligence ministry's operatives describe them as deployed worldwide and easier to monitor than Hezbollah cells because they operate out of embassies and behave more like a traditional spy service such as the Soviet KGB.

Other experts believe the Iranian service has become bogged down in intense, regional concerns: attacks on Shiites in Pakistan, the Iraq war and efforts to combat drug trafficking in Iran.

As a result, said Bahman Baktiari, an Iran expert at the University of Maine, the intelligence service has downsized its operations in Europe and the United States. But, said Baktiari, "I think the U.S. government doesn't have a handle on this."

Because Iran's nuclear facilities are scattered around the country, some military specialists doubt a strike could effectively end the program and would require hundreds of strikes beforehand to disable Iran's vast air defenses. They say airstrikes would most likely inflame the Muslim world, alienate reformers within Iran and could serve to unite Hezbollah and al-Qaeda, which have only limited contact currently.

A report by the independent commission investigating the Sept. 11 attacks cited al-Qaeda's long-standing cooperation with the Iranian-back Hezbollah on certain operations and said Osama bin Laden may have had a previously undisclosed role in the Khobar attack. Several al-Qaeda figures are reportedly under house arrest in Iran.

Others in the law enforcement and intelligence circles have been more dubious about cooperation between al-Qaeda and Hezbollah, largely because of the rivalries between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. Al-Qaeda adherents are Sunni Muslims; Hezbollah's are Shiites.

Iran "certainly wants to remind governments that they can create a lot of difficulty if strikes were to occur," said a senior European counterterrorism official interviewed recently. "That they might react with all means, Hezbollah inside Lebanon and outside Lebanon, this is certain. Al-Qaeda could become a tactical alliance."

Researcher Julie Tate contributed to this report.

US Encouraged by Tehran's Enemy Within

Simon Tisdall, The Guardian:
Increased repression and unrest affecting Iran's numerous ethnic and religious minorities are providing new opportunities for the US as it steps up efforts to destabilise and if possible bring down the hardline Islamic government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. READ MORE

Kurdish sources say persecution of Iran's estimated six million Kurds, who mostly live in western provinces bordering Turkey and Iraq, has intensified since Mr Ahmadinejad came to power. Weeks of turmoil followed his election last July - and is continuing. Ten Iranian Revolutionary Guards were killed in the latest clashes this week in Salmas and Kelares, according to Iranian and Kurdish reports.

Although groups such as the Kurdistan People's Democratic party have renounced violence, the Kurdistan Free Life party, affiliated to the Turkish separatist PKK, has carried on the fight. More than 120 members of the security forces are said to have died in the past year.

"The Kurdish population has long been viewed with suspicion by the Iranian authorities and has experienced decades of official neglect," Amnesty International reported in February.

"The months since Ahmadinejad came to power have seen no improvement. On the contrary, there have been signs ... of a further harshening of repression.

"Despite constitutional guarantees of equality, individuals belonging to minorities, believed to number about half Iran's population, are subject to an array of discriminatory laws and practices, including restrictions on social, cultural, linguistic and religious freedoms which often result in human rights violations."

Ibrahim Dogus of Halkevi, a Kurdish and Turkish community organisation, said Kurdish leaders wanted international support to end human rights abuses. But any regime change in Tehran should "come from the bottom" rather than be imposed from outside, he said.

Ethnically Arab Khuzestan province, in south-west Iran, has witnessed several recent bomb attacks, including a rumoured attempt to assassinate Mr Ahmadinejad in Ahvaz in January. The attacks have been attributed to separatists. But Iranian officials blame Britain, whose troops occupy adjacent areas of south-east Iraq, and its US ally for instigating the violence.

Coincidentally or not, "British intelligence" was also officially accused of colluding with "bandits" in Sistan-Baluchestan this month after 21 government officials were shot dead. Like separatists in Khuzestan, the south-eastern province's large ethnic Baluchi Sunni population has long protested about discrimination by the Persian Shia majority.

Iran's leaders also face stirrings of discontent in the north-east, home to two to three million ethnic Turkmen. According to Muhammad Tahir of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, Turkmen say the Persian language, dress codes and customs are being forced on them. "Sunni Muslims in a theocratic Shia state, they feel disadvantaged for both ethnic and religious reasons."

Government fears about the "enemy within" may have been reflected in a recent move to further pressure Iran's Baha'i community, which is not allowed to practice its faith and has often been subject to persecution at times of national strain. The UN condemned the move as "impermissible and unacceptable interference with the rights of religious minorities". A renewed crackdown on student groups has also been launched.

External pressure from non-Persian and mostly non-Shia minorities is being applied via the exiled Congress of Iranian Nationalities, which issued a manifesto in London last year. The congress demanded a federal Iran, separation of religion and state, and an end to all forms of discrimination.

President George Bush's national security strategy, published this month, again urged Iranians to rise up against their "oppressors". But whether the US can or should try to exploit Iran's ethnic and religious fault-lines is a matter of debate in Washington. Officialdom is split between those who fear triggering an uncontrollable, Iraq-style disintegration; and those, notably in the Pentagon, who think they see a way of dishing the mullahs where snail-paced UN diplomacy and high-risk military threats have so far failed.

Iranian officials say western attempts to divide the Iranian nation, forged in revolution and a bloody war with Saddam Hussein, are bound to fail. They are especially scornful of regional Arab and Iranian diaspora hopes of encouraging change from without. But nerves are jangling all the same.

Today will see the beginning of Noble Prophet, a large-scale Iranian military exercise along the length of the Gulf, the area where any future military attacks might be expected.

Rear-Admiral Morteza Saffari said the wargames would start with the firing of a Shahab-2 medium-range missile. The launch of this formidable weapon, he told an Iranian news agency, was intended as "a message of peace and friendship" to all Iran's neighbours. The admiral's grimly ambiguous greeting conveyed a blunter warning: Keep Out.

Iran Rejects U.S. Aid Offer

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:
US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns in a phone call on Friday expressed his government's sympathy to the Iranian government and quake-stricken people of Lorestan for the devastating quakes which hit this western Iranian province between Thursday night and Friday morning.

In his phone conversation with Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations Mohammad-Javad Zarif on Friday, Burns voiced the US' offer of aid to quake victims that would include blankets, water and hygienic items.

Zarif thanked Burns for the offer but said the Iranian government had not yet issued an appeal for international assistance following the Lorestan quakes. READ MORE

He said extensive and immediate relief and rescue operations by the Iranian government, the Islamic Republic Red Crescent Society and Non-Governmental Organizations had started in the quake-stricken areas.

The US has adopted lately a strategy of reaching out more to the Iranian people while pursuing anti-Iranian measures. It uses humanitarian disasters such as these latest quakes to hit the country to convey to the people it has a humanitarian heart in a bid to create a wedge between the people and the government.

MoD Denies Iran Military Meeting

BBC News:
Reports that military officers will meet government officials on Monday to discuss possible military action against Iran have been denied. A Ministry of Defence spokesman said there was no truth whatsoever in the claims, made in the Sunday Telegraph.

He said: "No such meeting between defence, foreign office and other officials is taking place." READ MORE

But BBC Defence Correspondent Paul Wood said US plans for a possible strike are thought to be at an advanced stage.

He pointed out that many defence analysts expected that British military officials would have a wide range of contingency plans available including one for a possible US air strike on Iran.

"There is no sense that such a strike is imminent however there is well sourced and persistent speculation that American covert activities aimed at Iran are already underway," he said.

The Sunday Telegraph said: "A high-level meeting will take place in the Ministry of Defence at which senior defence chiefs and government officials will consider the consequences of an attack on Iran."

It stated that senior military officials would attend the meeting, along with officials from the Foreign Office and Downing Street.

But, in addition to denying that there would be any such meeting, the MoD said: "There will be no briefing of the prime minister and the Cabinet office in this regard, nor are there any plans for such a briefing."

'Strong signal'

Last week the five permanent members of the UN Security Council gave Iran 30 days to suspend uranium enrichment or face isolation.

According to the newspaper report, "an American-led attack, designed to destroy Iran's ability to develop a nuclear bomb, is 'inevitable' if Tehran's leaders fail to comply with United Nations demands".

Tehran insists its nuclear activities are peaceful and has rejected the council's demand.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the meeting in Berlin sent "a very strong signal to Iran that the international community is united".

And UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said the council might pass a legally-binding resolution if Iran did not comply, leaving a possibility of sanctions.

Britain in Secret Talks About Strike Against Iran

Sean Rayment, Telegraph:
The Government is to hold secret talks with defence chiefs tomorrow to discuss possible military strikes against Iran. A high-level meeting will take place in the Ministry of Defence at which senior defence chiefs and government officials will consider the consequences of an attack on Iran.

It is believed that an American-led attack, designed to destroy Iran's ability to develop a nuclear bomb, is "inevitable" if Teheran's leaders fail to comply with United Nations demands to freeze their uranium enrichment programme. READ MORE

Tomorrow's meeting will be attended by Gen Sir Michael Walker, the chief of the defence staff, Lt Gen Andrew Ridgway, the chief of defence intelligence and Maj Gen Bill Rollo, the assistant chief of the general staff, together with officials from the Foreign Office and Downing Street.

The International Atomic Energy Authority, the nuclear watchdog, believes that much of Iran's programme is now devoted to uranium enrichment and plutonium separation, technologies that could provide material for nuclear bombs to be developed in the next three years.

The United States government is hopeful that the military operation will be a multinational mission, but defence chiefs believe that the Bush administration is prepared to launch the attack on its own or with the assistance of Israel, if there is little international support. British military chiefs believe an attack would be limited to a series of air strikes against nuclear plants - a land assault is not being considered at the moment.

But confirmation that Britain has started contingency planning will undermine the claim last month by Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, that a military attack against Iran was "inconceivable".

Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, insisted, during a visit to Blackburn yesterday, that all negotiating options - including the use of force - remained open in an attempt to resolve the crisis.

Tactical Tomahawk cruise missiles fired from US navy ships and submarines in the Gulf would, it is believed, target Iran's air defence systems at the nuclear installations.

That would enable attacks by B2 stealth bombers equipped with eight 4,500lb enhanced BLU-28 satellite-guided bunker-busting bombs, flying from Diego Garcia, the isolated US Navy base in the Indian Ocean, RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and Whiteman USAF base in Missouri.

It is understood that any direct British involvement in an attack would be limited but may extend to the use of the RAF's highly secret airborne early warning aircraft.

At the centre of the crisis is Washington's fear that an Iranian nuclear weapon could be used against Israel or US forces in the region, such as the American air base at Incirlik in Turkey.

The UN also believes that the production of a bomb could also lead to further destabilisation in the Middle East, which would result in Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia all developing nuclear weapons programmes.

A senior Foreign Office source said: "Monday's meeting will set out to address the consequences for Britain in the event of an attack against Iran. The CDS [chiefs of defence staff] will want to know what the impact will be on British interests in Iraq and Afghanistan which both border Iran. The CDS will then brief the Prime Minister and the Cabinet on their conclusions in the next few days.

"If Iran makes another strategic mistake, such as ignoring demands by the UN or future resolutions, then the thinking among the chiefs is that military action could be taken to bring an end to the crisis. The belief in some areas of Whitehall is that an attack is now all but inevitable.

There will be no invasion of Iran but the nuclear sites will be destroyed. This is not something that will happen imminently, maybe this year, maybe next year. Jack Straw is making exactly the same noises that the Government did in March 2003 when it spoke about the likelihood of a war in Iraq.

"Then the Government said the war was neither inevitable or imminent and then attacked."

The source said that the Israeli attack against Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981 proved that a limited operation was the best military option.

The Israeli air force launched raids against the plant, which intelligence suggested was being used to develop a nuclear bomb for use against Israel.

Military chiefs also plan tomorrow to discuss fears that an attack within Iran will "unhinge" southern Iraq - where British troops are based - an area mainly populated by Shia Muslims who have strong political and religious links to Iran.

They are concerned that this could delay any withdrawal of troops this year or next. There could also be consequences for British and US troops in Afghanistan, which borders Iran.

The MoD meeting will address the economic issues that could arise if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president - who became the subject of international condemnation last year when he called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" - cuts off oil supplies to the West in reprisal.

There are thought to be at least eight known sites within Iran involved in the production of nuclear materials, although it is generally accepted that there are many more secret installations.

Iran has successfully tested a Fajr-3 missile that can reach Israel, avoiding radar and hitting several targets using multiple warheads, its military has confirmed.
Graphic.

Friday, March 31, 2006

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 4.1.2006:

Iran tests new stealth missile.
  • Times Online reported that Iran today test-fired a new missile with the ability to avoid radar and hit several targets simultaneously.
  • Islamic Republic News Agency during a joint Iranian maritime war-game in the Persian Gulf, reported that: "One unit of Shahab 2 missile is to be launched to resemble peace and friendship among littoral states of the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman."
  • Dow Jones Newswires reported that the U.S. State Department said Iran's successful test of a nuclear-capable missile demonstrates Iran's "very active and aggressive military program" that is worrisome to the world.
  • The Washington Post reported that Iran's armed forces on Friday successfully test fired a domestically produced missile which can evade radar, adding: "This technology is completely new, without copying any other missile systems that may exist in other countries."
The Iranian earthquake, the response.
  • Yahoo News reported that President Bush offered assistance Friday to earthquake victims in Iran, saying the United States cares about the suffering of the Iranian people.
  • IranMania reported that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Friday offered US humanitarian aid to the victims of the earthquake in Iran.
  • Reuters reported that relief efforts are under way after a series of earthquakes on Thursday night struck Iran's western Lorestan province with over 300 villages in the remote area were reportedly affected, with between 30 and 100 percent of homes damaged.
  • Photos of the earthquake damage.
Britain recruited Badr militia for Iraqi security.
  • The Times reported that the Badr organisation, trained in exile by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards was deliberately recruited by Britain to join the new Iraqi security services after Saddam Hussein was overthrown.
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.
  • Reuters reported that Iran's influential former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, said that putting the U.N. Security Council in charge of the Iranian nuclear file risked harming Iran, the region and the West.
  • Radio Free Europe reported that the UN special rapporteur on freedom of religion, Asma Jahangir, disclosed an official Iranian government letter that reportedly tells government agencies to collect information -- "in a highly confidential manner" -- about Baha'i members. She explained why the information will likely be used to persecute and discriminate against Baha'i believers.
  • Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat argued there is no civil war in Iraq: here is why.
Keyword:

There is No Civil War in Iraq: Here is Why

Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat:
Is Iraq in a state of civil war?

My notes show that, since the fall of Saddam Hussein in April 2003 the question has risen once every two months. Having made the cover of almost every major news magazine, it has also been the theme of countless television and radio programmes in Europe and the United States.

The answer, however, is the same firm “no that it was when it was when BBC television just devoted a programme to it just weeks after the fall of Saddam Hussein.

Nevertheless, it is important to review some of the reasons behind our firm “no”. READ MORE

The question was given a new air of authenticity earlier this month when, in a BBC interview, Iraq ’s former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi implied that his country was already in civil war.

Allawi is one of the most capable members of the new Iraqi leadership elite, and can claim credit for having led his nation through a critical transition. But the fact is that he did not win enough votes in the last general election to claim the premiership, and thus may have been motivated by sour grapes, a very human reaction.

In understanding any political situation it is important to get the terminology right. Whether or not Iraq is in civil war, affects not only our analysis of the situation but also the policies needed for coping with it.

The term civil war was first popularised by the great orator and politician of ancient Rome Cicero to designate major armed conflicts within the republic.

The chief feature of such conflicts was that it pitted one group of Roman citizens against another, with no armed intervention by foreign powers.

More than five centuries earlier, Thucydides had seen the Peloponnesian war as an armed conflict between two sections of the same Hellenic community but had not regarded it as a civil war because it was fought under the banner of belligerent states and not between rival groups of citizens within the same state.

Although Roman history is replete with wars within the borders of the republic, and later, the empire, the term civil war is used to describe only a few.

The first Roman civil war was fought between Lucius Corenlius Sulla and Gaius Marius in 88-87 BC. Sulla lost but returned to fight, and win, another war against his rival in 82-83. But it was Julius Caesar’s war against the Optimates (conservative republicans) under Pompey in 49-45 BC that came to be known as the archetypical civil war and the model for subsequent conflicts of the same nature.

Rome was not the only major power of the ancient world to experience civil wars.

Persia, too, was shaken by several civil wars, starting with the one fought between Darius and The Magi who masqueraded as Bardiya the son of Cyrus the Great in 521 BC. But, perhaps, the most famous of Persian civil wars was fought between Khosrow Parviz and his ambitious former army commander Bahram Chubin in 590 AD.

So the first feature of civil war is that it must be fought between two rival camps of citizens of the same state.

A second feature is that the rival camps must be of roughly the same size and strength at the start of the conflict. If they are not, the conflict would best be described as a revolt by a minority against the majority and not as a civil war. (Roman history is full of such revolts, most notably the slaves’ uprising led by Spartacus and crushed by Crassus.)

The third feature of civil war is that it must be fought on political , not religious and/or ethnic grounds, pitting one secular vision of society against another. Wars fought on the basis of religion and/or ethnic identity, represent separate categories.

The fourth feature is that the conflict must be over the control of the whole disputed state and not aimed at splitting it into smaller units. Thus secessionist campaigns cannot be described as civil war. Civil war splits society at all levels, causing conflict even within families, and pitting brother against brother.

Finally, there should be no direct foreign intervention on one side or another, although in most civil wars rival foreign powers support the side they believe is closest to their interests.

The strict application of these rules would mean that many armed conflicts labelled as “civil war” would bes be placed in other categories.

The conflict that pitted the north against the south in the United States (1861-65) is often labelled the American Civil War.” But it could be argued that it was a secessionist rebellion rather than a civil war. In fact, it is known in French as la guerre de secession (war of secession).The southern states had no desire to impose their model on the north, but fought to create their separate country.

Fast forward to recent history, few armed conflicts could be labelled “civil war” under the rules spelled out. The “Red” and “White” conflict of 1918-21 in Russia was one, because it met all the five conditions of a civil war. The same is true of the Spanish Civil War (1936-39), and the armed conflict that pitted the Communist Party against the Kuomintang in China between 1945 and 1949.

By contrast one cannot describe the decade-long armed conflict in Algeria (1992-2002) as civil war. There, although two mutually exclusive visions clashed, the rival camps were not of roughly the same size, and the use of religion as the backbone of the anti-state revolt undermined its political credentials. More importantly, the anti-state forces did not succeed in coming up with a unified message let alone a unified leadership.

The 1994 armed conflict in Yemen is also labelled “Civil War”, but was, in fact, a secessionist revolt by the south against the north.

The conflict in Lebanon (1975-91) could be seen as a civil war because, although different ethnic and religious communities clashed on different sides, it was essentially fought on political grounds. There were also two camps: the pan-Arabs and the little-Lebanbonists.

The many armed conflicts in Black Africa, notably in Nigeria (the Biafran revolt against the Fulani in the 1960s), the Sudan (the Christian south against the Muslim north), and the genocide of Tutsis by Hutus in Rwanda in the 1990s, should also be seen as ethnic, religious and/or secessionist wars rather than civil wars.

So, let us return to Iraq .

Iraq is currently the scene of four parallel and at times overlapping conflicts.

The first is between the forces of old Iraq , principally the remnants of the Ba’ath regime, and those of the new emerging Iraq .

The second is between Iraqis of different backgrounds and ideologies against the coalition forces led by the United Sates.

The third is between non-Iraqi Jihadists against both the US-led coalition and the forces of new Iraq .

The fourth is a sectarian feud between Arab Sunnis and Arab Shi’ites in which non-Iraqi Jihadists often intervene on the side of the former.

For Iraq to experience a civil war it is necessary for those four conflicts to be summed up in a single one fought by two rival camps of more or less equal strength at the start, consisting of Iraqi citizens divided not by ethnic and/or sectarian differences but by mutually exclusive political visions for the nation. And that certainly is not the case now.

Dr. Allawi is wrong: Iraq is not in a civil war, and, while the danger of one breaking out in the future cannot be discarded, the prospect of such an event remains remote.

Iranian Militiamen Were Brought in by Britain

Dominic Kennedy, The Times:
Militiamen from an Iranian-backed force were deliberately recruited by Britain to join the new Iraqi security services after Saddam Hussein was overthrown, the Government has admitted.

The sectarian Badr organisation, trained in exile by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, is suspected of violently pursuing its own agenda after being allowed to enlist in national units. John Reid, the Defence Secretary, disclosed in a Commons written answer to the Plaid Cymru MP Adam Price that it had been official policy to welcome the Shia gunmen. “Following the end of the conflict in Iraq, the Coalition Provision Authority sought to reintegrate militia members into civil society,” Mr Reid said. This process included members of the Badr organisation, formerly known as the Badr Corps, among others.” READ MORE

Sunnis have accused the Badr organisation of torturing prisoners, a claim rejected by the Shia-dominated Government. Bayar Jabor, the Interior Minister, was a member of the militia. The organisation’s stronghold is southern Iraq, where British troops have been based since the war.

Rafsanjani says world mishandling Iran atomic file

Reuters:
Iran's influential former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, said on Friday that putting the U.N. Security Council in charge of the Iranian nuclear file risked harming Iran, the region and the West.

The council, which can impose sanctions, has called on Iran to halt enrichment of uranium in its nuclear programme, which the West believes is being used to develop atomic bombs.

Iran, which says its nuclear aims are peaceful, has rejected the demand. It says it wants its file to stay with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

"It is not possible to wrongly accuse such a nation (Iran) ... and then send its dossier to the Security Council and drag the region step by step towards a critical situation," Rafsanjani said in a Friday prayers sermon.


"If they (the West) continue the current trend on Iran's nuclear case, everybody will be harmed. Iran is not the only country that will be harmed," he said. READ MORE

"Iran, the region, the Westerners, and the international organisations will be harmed. It will dent the credibility of the international organisations," he added.

Rafsanjani heads Iran's Expediency Council, which arbitrates between parliament and a constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told Reuters on Friday that it was up to Iran to ensure a diplomatic resolution of its nuclear standoff with the West.

Rafsanjani said Iran's nuclear dossier had ended up in the Security Council because of "the enmity and unfair attitude of the arrogant powers in the world", an apparent reference to the United States and its European allies.

Iran fires missile that can evade radar: TV

Parinoosh Arami, The Washington Post:
Iran's armed forces on Friday successfully test fired a domestically produced missile which can evade radar, state television reported, a development analysts said could be worrying for Western forces in the Gulf.

Western nations have been watching developments in Iran's missile capabilities with concern amid a standoff over the Iranian nuclear program, which the West says is aimed at building atomic bombs. Iran says the program is civilian.

"The missile command of the air force of the Revolutionary Guards has successfully tested a new generation of missiles," Hossein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guards air force, told state television.

"This missile can evade radar and it can evade anti-missile missiles," he said.


"This technology is completely new, without copying any other missile systems that may exist in other countries," he said, adding that the missile could carry multiple warheads. READ MORE

Television had said the type of missile tested was called Fajr-3 but Salami did not name the new weapon or give the missile's range, saying it depended on the warhead weight. He said it was a defensive weapon.

The U.S.-based military affairs Web site globalsecurity.org describes the Fajr-3 as a 240 mm artillery rocket with a 25-mile range, one of a group of light rockets Iran has developed mainly for tactical use on the battlefield.

However, it also says Iran has been working on another missile, called the Kosar, that would be undetectable by radar and designed to sink ships in the Gulf.

"WORRYING FOR WEST"

Accompanying the report of the test, state television showed footage of a single missile being launched from land. The television report also described it as a "long-range missile."

Iranian officials could not be reached for more details.

Lee Willett, head of the military capabilities program at London's Royal United Services Institute, a defense think-tank, said the missile could be a worry for Western navies in the Gulf, wary of threats that could cut off shipping lanes.

"It is potentially a significant issue for coalition forces in the Gulf because there is a very important focus amongst the coalition navies on maritime security operations both at and from the sea, with a particular interest in what is happening from Iran," Willett said.

The test was part of a week of Iranian naval manoeuvres that started on Friday and were due to take place in the Gulf and Sea of Oman. Ground and air forces are also taking part in the wargames to show Iran's "defensive capabilities," the official IRNA news agency reported.

Diplomats in Europe said this month that Iran was stepping up development of missiles capable of carrying atomic warheads. An Iranian official denied the charge.

The diplomats, citing an intelligence report, said the program included plans to arm Iran's Shahab-3 missiles, which experts believe has a maximum range of around 2,000 km (1,240 miles), with nuclear warheads.

Experts say North Korea has been key to Iran's missile development. A German diplomat in February said Iran has purchased 18 disassembled BM-25 missiles with a range of about 2,500 km from North Korea.

The Iranian exiled opposition group, the National Council of Resistance in Iran, has also said Iran was working on developing so-called Ghadr missiles, with a range of up to 3,000 km (1,864 miles).

(Additional reporting by Peter Graff in London)

U.S. Says Iran's Missile Test Indicative Of A Military Program

Dow Jones Newswires:
Iran's successful test of a nuclear-capable missile demonstrates Iran's "very active and aggressive military program" that is worrisome to the world, the U.S. State Department said Friday. READ MORE

The announcement in Tehran said the missile's range would depend on the weight of its warhead. Iran's air force chief, Gen. Hossein Salami, said independently guided payloads could hit several targets simultaneously.

State Department deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said he had no technical details on the test firing, but "I think it demonstrates that Iran has a very active and aggressive military program under way."

The description, he said, includes "efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction as well as delivery systems."

"I think Iran's military posture, military development effort, is of concern to the international community," Ereli said. Evidence, he said, "is the kind of consensus you're seeing with regard to their nuclear program as well as other nonproliferation concerns."

Holy Prophet (PBUH) maritime wargame kicks off

Islamic Republic News Agency:
A joint maritime wargame, dubbed as Holy Prophet (PBUH), started here Friday in the Persian Gulf waters.

Combatants from the navy and airforce of the Islamic Republic Army and police, missile units of the air force and Basij (voluntary) forces took part in the joint wargame.

Some 17,000 of combatants have taken part in the wargame, spokesman of the wargame Vice-Rear Admiral Mohammad Ibrahimi Dehghani said on Friday.

Over 1,500 gunboats along with all types of fighters, bombers and choppers have taken part in the wargame, he pointed out.

One unit of Shahab 2 missile is to be launched to resemble peace and friendship among littoral states of the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman, he said.

During the wargame various anti-offensive operations, telecommunications, satellites, reconnaissance patrols and electronic systems are to be conducted against the hypothetical enemies.

The wargame would be concluded on April 6.
"Peace and friendship?"