Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [7/23/06 - 7/29/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran behind Hezbollah's war on Israel.

• Time Magazine reported that while Hizballah may be Tehran's client, the conflict hasn't been welcomed by many Iranians. Iranian's are saying, "We should mind our own business and concentrate on policies that are good for our economy, and our kids."
• Amir Taheri, The Times argued that when Iran launched the present war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ahmadinejad hoped, the Arab world would rally behind his vision of the Middle East instead of the “American vision”. Instead the Arab world is moving in the other direction. A must read.
• ABS CBN News reported that Israel successfully launched on a highly accurate imaging satellite which will enhance its ability to spy on Iran.
• Mark Steyn, Chicago Sun-Times reminded us of one of the most straightforward of Islamist declarations, Hussein Massawi, the Hezbollah leader, 20 years ago, said: "We are not fighting so that you will offer us something. We are fighting to eliminate you [Israel]."
• Iran Press News reported that an Islamic regime organization, called Mohammad’s Army dispatched the first group of suicide-bombers from Tehran to Lebanon.
• The Sun reported that teams of Iranian suicide bombers were heading for Lebanon’s war zone last night in a terrifying bid to spark meltdown in the Middle East.
• The New York Sun reported that the bodies of Iranian Revolutionary Guard soldiers killed by the Israeli army in Lebanon have been transported to Syria and flown to Tehran.
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that America's closest Arab allies are now publicly sharpening their criticism of Israel's campaign against Hezbollah and muting their criticism of the Iranian-armed militia.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. and Israel must balance their goal of defanging the militant group Hezbollah against the growing toll the war is taking on Israel, Lebanon and President Bush's hopes for reshaping the region.
• Iran Focus reported that Iran’s Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar accused the United States of deliberately imposing war and violence in the Middle East.
• Dr. Walid Phares, FrontPageMagazine.com argued that when Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah held his press conference to declare his new victory over his enemy, Israel, he was triggering –probably without knowing- a new era in the history of Lebanon and the region.
• Ha'aretz reported that recent developments in the Hezbollah war with Israel are revealing insight into Israeli intelligence.
• The Washington Times reported that some analysts fear that Iran's suspected support for the recent Hezbollah attacks on Israel could undo the international community's solidarity over Iran's nuclear program.
• John Batchelor, The New York Sun argued that Europe will not fight in Lebanon to support Israel and America in suppressing Hezbollah. Because rather, Europe is collectively suffering the double wall of denial.
• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online see the West replaying two old blunders in dealing with Syria. The first is the Friend Who Has Gone Too Far, and the second is the Enemy Who Is Really Our Friend.
• Caroline B. Glick, Jewish World Review argued that the events of the past two weeks have also shown some of the West's greatest strengths in fighting the war so many of its powerful citizens and statesmen refuse to acknowledge.
• Michael Ledeen, The Corner reported that a senior Hizbullah official has said the group did not expect Israel to react so strongly to the capture of two Israeli soldiers. The same blunder Osama made on 9/11. If only we take full advantage. Which we are not.
• Michael Rubin, The Corner reported on the idea of splitting Syria away from Iran. It isn’t going to happen.
• David Frum, National Post argued that the war on Israel's northern border is Iran's showdown with the West.
• Spiegel published an interview with former United States Middle East envoy Dennis Ross, 57, about Tehran's interest in the war in Lebanon and said "there is a real risk of escalation."
• David Frum, National Post provided a short chronology of events to help us to understand the origins of this latest spasm of violence in the Middle East.
• BBC News reported that Turkey and Saudi Arabia have stopped Iran using their air space to send humanitarian relief to Lebanon.
• Wizbang reported that CNN's Nic Robertson admitted that his anti-Israel hit piece of last week was propaganda for Hezbollah.
• Iran Mania reported that Iran called on Moscow to take a more decisive role in solving the Middle East crisis.
• The Australian reported that Israeli forces trying to root out militant Hezbollah fighters from southern Lebanon have uncovered sophisticated "Viet Cong-style" tunnel networks.
• MEMRI published excerpts from an interview with Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, where he criticized Hassan Nasrallah made the decision to go to war without consulting anyone. Video.
• The Guardian reported that Iran warned the west that attempts to broker a Lebanon peace deal at today's Rome summit are destined to fail and that the West ignores Iran "at your peril."
• SF Chronicle reported that diplomats from the West and the Middle East gathered in Rome, two weeks after a cross-border attack spiraled into deadly warfare, minus Iran and Syria.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that French President Jacques Chirac said Iran supplied arms and funds to the Lebanon-based Hezbollah guerrillas.
• Alan Peters, AntiMullah argues that the UN is spying for Hezbollah.
• Richard Foot, Canada.com argued why attempts to appease Iran won’t satiate its quest for Arab world nuclear supremacy.
• Mai Yamani, The Daily Star considered the question: Is the Sunni-Shiite divide in the Middle East now deeper than the antagonism between Israel and the Arabs?
• B.Raman, International Terrorism Monitor published an Indian perspective on "Israel's Continuing Ordeal."
• Iran Press News reported on the Iranian people’s rage and hatred for Hezbollah was in evidence in the regime-run newspaper Aftab’eh Yazd where readers of the newspaper messages have been published, for example: “Hassan Nassrollah, the coward is hiding out while the people of Lebanon are paying his price.” A must read.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com argued that while some have suggested that the latest round of fighting between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon is the beginning of World War III, he suggested this is more like the Spanish Civil War.
• Reuters reported that Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, flew to Syria on Wednesday for talks with senior Syrian officials to discuss the crisis as Hizbollah guerrillas.
• Die Welt reported that Nasrallah may now be in Damascus for discussions with Syrian President Bashar Assad and the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani about wider strategic issues such as Syrian and Iranian involvement in the war.
• The New York Sun reported that Lebanon's Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, said Tehran is using Hezbollah's confrontation with the Jewish state to test its weapons capabilities and to observe Israeli military tactics.
• Forbes reported that Iran's foreign ministry on Friday denied allegations that Tehran has provided military support to Hezbollah in its fight against Israel. Sure.
• USAToday reported that President Bush declined to criticize Israel's tactics in its continuing offensive against Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon, and gave a sharp condemnation of Iran's role in the bloody fighting.
• World Tribune.com reported that the State Department said that Hizbullah, despite Iranian sponsorship, remains an independent organization. A senior official said Hizbullah has been influenced rather than dominated by Iran and Syria.
• Thomas Joscelyn, The Weekly Standard reported that al Qaeda's Zawahiri's statements: "We cannot just watch these shells as they burn our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon and stand by idly, humiliated," runs counter to the conventional wisdom of many in the intelligence community.
• Olivier Guitta, Asia Times provided an excellent backgrounder on Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Lebanon's Shi'ite Hezbollah.
• Canada.com examined why Hezbollah's Nasrallah choose to attack Israel now.
• The Wall Street Journal reported that while Hezbollah fired more than 1,500 Katyusha missiles this week at Israeli, the real threat may be their smaller, free-flying rockets now evolving into relatively sophisticated and accurate ballistic missiles.
• Ottawa Citizen reported that a former Canadian Secret Intelligence Service informant says the Iranian regime is "mentally and spiritually" preparing its people for war against Israel.
• Yahoo News reported that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei feted Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as the "people's favorite person all over the world."
• The New York Times reported that while these should be heady days for Iran’s leaders, Iranian officials cannot seem to decide whether Iran will emerge stronger — or unexpectedly weakened.
• Iran Press News provided more details on the secret meeting of the axis of terror in Damascus where Hassan Nasrollah, Bashar al-Asad and Ali Larijani planned strategy.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Hizbullah's top commander in southern Lebanon is a veteran Fatah operative who was very close to former Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat, Imad Mughniyeh.
  

Ahmadinejad's promised message to the world coming soon... August 22nd?

• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that Israeli strategic planners are closely watching whether Iran will deliver on President Ahmadinejad's promise last week to make an announcement that would neutralize Israel's nuclear threat.
• Robert Spencer, FrontPageMagazine.com reported that Western officials are concerned with the message that Iranian President is planning for August 22nd. He examines the significance of the date in Islamic history and fears it is Iran's day of terror.
• Lt. Col. Gordon Cucullu, FrontPageMagazine.com concerned about Ahmadinejad's August 22nd surprise announcement outlined what Iran and its surrogates in Syria and inside Hezbollah might have in mind.
  

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.

• Los Angeles Times reported that Russian opposition to key wording of a U.S.-backed Security Council draft resolution was unexpected and is straining international unity on efforts to deal with Iran's nuclear defiance.
• Forbes reported that the US and key European nations moved closer to agreement with Russia on a Security Council resolution on Iran's nuclear program.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad discussed the Lebanon crisis and tensions over Iran's nuclear program.
• The Washington Post reported that key U.N. Security Council members agreed informally on Thursday on a resolution demanding Iran suspend nuclear enrichment and reprocessing work and threatening to consider sanctions if it refuses.
• News.com.au reported that US Ambassador John Bolton said a resolution to be proposed to the UN Security Council by six major powers would give Iran until August 31 to halt uranium enrichment.
• FOX News reported that Iranian state radio said Saturday that the government would reject a proposed U.N. resolution that would give it until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of international sanctions.
  

Iran's leaders latest statements.

• Yahoo News reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned that the conflict between Lebanon and Israel could sweep through the entire Middle East like a hurricane.
• MEMRI published statements by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in which he attacks leaders of Islamic Countries in the Middle East for their role in the Lebanon crisis. Video.
• The Washington Post reported that Iranian President Ahmadinejad issued a decree to remove foreign words from the Iranian language.
  

Iranian Dissidents.

• BBC News reported that Iranian dissident Akbar Ganji declined to meet White House officials during a visit to the US.
• Kianoosh Sanjari reported that student leader Ahmad Batebi, was arrested in front of his home in Tehran by plain clothes secret service agents of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He was arrested in 1999 because of the humiliation the regime felt after this young man's photo appears on the cover of the Economist and has become a symbol of the Iranian student movement. Photo.
• Radio Free Europe published an interview with Iranian dissident Akbar Ganji.
  

Human Rights and Freedom of the Press in Iran.

• The Sunday Mirror reported that a girl of 19 faces being hanged in Iran for a crime she didn't commit. Delara Darabi was just 17 when her boyfriend, Amir Hossein, persuaded her to confess to a murder he committed.
• Iran Press News reported that the Islamic regime’s mercenaries attacked houses in the city of Rasht with the excuse of confiscating satellite dishes. "This is the first time in six years where the executive, legislative and disciplinary forces have agreed upon the ban on satellites."
• Amnesty International is seeking information from the Iranian government about a letter which calls for government ministries and the Republican Guard to compile information and report to the Armed Forces Command on the activities of adherents of the Baha’i faith.
• Iran Focus reported that the European Union issued a statement that expressed “serious concern about the deteriorating situation with regard to the freedom of expression and the status of human rights defenders in Iran.”
• Iran Press News reported that Akbar Mohammadi imprisoned student who was refused his medical furlough from prison, began a hunger strike on July 23rd. Photo.
• Iran Press News reported on the Islamic regime's flogging of a 37-year-old man in Vahdat Square in the city of Gorgan (northern Iran). He received 74 lashes. Photo.
• Iran Press News reported that in 2005 eight adolescents under 18 were executed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.
• Iran Press News reported that the regime’s authorities at the Rajaiishahr prison have begun summoning and threatening political prisoners, trumping up charges against them in order to stymie their hunger strikes.
• Iran Press News reported that an Iranian woman, Shamameh (Malak) Ghorbani, has been sentenced to execution through stoning. Human rights groups have begun a campaign to save her life. Photo.
  

The Iranian Economy.

• Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council testifying before the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress and said while there is no greater foreign policy challenge facing the United States today than the one posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, there has been little public discussion about the economic dimension of the current crisis in Iran. A must read.
  

Iran and the International community.

• Iran Press News reported that China and the countries of the [Persian] Gulf Cooperation Council, finalized a new round of talks regarding the consolidation of an agreement on free trade, with the goal and guarantee of long-term oil output to maximum capability.
• 
  

Must Read reports.

• Time Magazine reported that while Hizballah may be Tehran's client, the conflict hasn't been welcomed by many Iranians. Iranian's are saying, "We should mind our own business and concentrate on policies that are good for our economy, and our kids."
• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard reported that US intelligence has again been caught off guard by the sophisticated weapons being deployed by our enemies, this time in Lebanon.
• Thomas Joscelyn, The Weekly Standard reported that al Qaeda's Zawahiri's statements: "We cannot just watch these shells as they burn our brothers in Gaza and Lebanon and stand by idly, humiliated," runs counter to the conventional wisdom of many in the intelligence community.
• Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council testifying before the Joint Economic Committee of the United States Congress and said while there is no greater foreign policy challenge facing the United States today than the one posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, there has been little public discussion about the economic dimension of the current crisis in Iran. A must read.

The Experts.

• Amir Taheri, The Times argued that when Iran launched the present war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ahmadinejad hoped, the Arab world would rally behind his vision of the Middle East instead of the “American vision”. Instead the Arab world is moving in the other direction. A must read.
• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online see the West replaying two old blunders in dealing with Syria. The first is the Friend Who Has Gone Too Far, and the second is the Enemy Who Is Really Our Friend.
• Michael Ledeen, The Corner reported that a senior Hizbullah official has said the group did not expect Israel to react so strongly to the capture of two Israeli soldiers. The same blunder Osama made on 9/11. If only we take full advantage. Which we are not.
• Michael Rubin, The Corner reported on the idea of splitting Syria away from Iran. It isn’t going to happen.
• Amir Taheri, Gulf News explained why Western governments are developing strategic energy plans for the next quarter of a century.
• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard provided an important report on the Iranian architect of Hezbollah's terror, Imad Fayez Mugniyeh.
• Michael Ledeen, The Corner published a parable relevant to the current Hezbollah war on Israel by Joshuapundit that Ledeen calls: History 404: What They Don't Teach You at the U.N.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com argued that while some have suggested that the latest round of fighting between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon is the beginning of World War III, he suggested this is more like the Spanish Civil War.
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• Iran Press News published a photo: "The blood of Khomeini courses through the veins of Hezbollah."
• Iran Press News published a photo of a book showing a picture of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with writing in Arabic on cover reads "America is the head of the terrorists" in the rubble of collapsed buildings in the Hezbollah stronghold of southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon.
• Iran Press News published a photo which shows a Hezbollah rocket launcher with Iranian arms factory markings on it, captured during fighting in southern Lebanon.
• Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Signs of the Times.
• MEMRI published statements by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in which he attacks leaders of Islamic Countries in the Middle East for their role in the Lebanon crisis. Video.
• MEMRI published excerpts from an interview with Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, where he criticized Hassan Nasrallah made the decision to go to war without consulting anyone. Video.
• Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Cowardly Blending.
• Iran Press News published photos of the Hezbollah flag being distributed in the Parliament of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
• Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: High Stakes.
• Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Global Jihad.
  

The Quote of the Week.

MEMRI:Following are excerpts from an interview with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , which aired on the Iranian News Channel (IRINN) on July 23, 2006. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: In my opinion,

"Lebanon is the scene of an historic test, which will determine the future of humanity."

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 7.30.2006:

Iran preparing its people for war with Israel.

• Ottawa Citizen reported that a former Canadian Secret Intelligence Service informant says the Iranian regime is "mentally and spiritually" preparing its people for war against Israel.
• Yahoo News reported that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei feted Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as the "people's favorite person all over the world."

Iranian state radio: Iran will reject UN resolution.

• FOX News reported that Iranian state radio said Saturday that the government would reject a proposed U.N. resolution that would give it until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of international sanctions.

Some Iranian officials fear Hezbollah's war is weakening them.

• The New York Times reported that while these should be heady days for Iran’s leaders, Iranian officials cannot seem to decide whether Iran will emerge stronger — or unexpectedly weakened.

Famous Iranian student leader re-arrested.

• Kianoosh Sanjari reported that student leader Ahmad Batebi, was arrested in front of his home in Tehran by plain clothes secret service agents of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. He was arrested in 1999 because of the humiliation the regime felt after this young man's photo appears on the cover of the Economist and has become a symbol of the Iranian student movement. Photo.
  

More on the secret meeting in Damascus.

• Iran Press News provided more details on the secret meeting of the axis of terror in Damascus where Hassan Nasrollah, Bashar al-Asad and Ali Larijani planned strategy.

Master terrorist Mughniyeh leads Hezbollah forces.

• The Jerusalem Post reported that Hizbullah's top commander in southern Lebanon is a veteran Fatah operative who was very close to former Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat, Imad Mughniyeh.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard reported that US intelligence has again been caught off guard by the sophisticated weapons being deployed by our enemies, this time in Lebanon.
• The Washington Post reported that Iranian President Ahmadinejad issued a decree to remove foreign words from the Iranian language.
• Radio Free Europe published an interview with Iranian dissident Akbar Ganji.
• Iran Press News reported that an Iranian woman, Shamameh (Malak) Ghorbani, has been sentenced to execution through stoning. Human rights groups have begun a campaign to save her life. Photo.
  

Tags: iran, news, nuclear, lebanon, isreal

Iran Hangs in Suspense as War Offers New Strength, and Sudden Weakness

Michael Slackman, The New York Times:

These should be heady days for Iran’s leaders. Hezbollah, widely regarded as its proxy force in Lebanon, continues to rain down rockets on Israel despite 17 days of punishing airstrikes. Hezbollah’s leader is a hero of the Arab world, and Iran is basking in the reflected glory.

Yet this capital is unusually tense. Officials, former officials and analysts say that it is too dangerous even to discuss the crisis. In newspapers, the slightest questioning of support for Hezbollah has been attacked as unpatriotic, pro-Zionist and anti-Islamic.

As the war in Lebanon grinds on, Iranian officials cannot seem to decide whether Iran will emerge stronger — or unexpectedly weakened. READ MORE

They are increasingly confident of an ideological triumph. But they also believe the war itself has already harmed Hezbollah’s strength as a military deterrent for Iran on the Israeli border.

And foreign policy experts and former government officials said that Iran had come to view Israel’s attack on Lebanon as a proxy offensive. They now view the war as the new front line in the decades-old conflict with Washington.

“They are worried that what’s happened in Lebanon to Hezbollah is the United States’ revenge against Iran,” said Hamidreza Jalaipour, a sociologist and former government official. “The way they are attacking them and fighting against them is like waging a war against Iran.”

Iran’s relationship to Hezbollah is both strategic and ideological. The Islamic Revolution in 1979 was viewed by its clerical leaders as a part of a pan-Muslim movement. Linking up with the Shiite Muslims of southern Lebanon was part of Iran’s efforts to spread its ideological influence. But in building up Hezbollah, the ideological motivation fused with a practical desire to put a force on Israel’s northern border.

No matter how this conflict is resolved, Iranian officials already see their strategic military strength diminished, said the policy experts, former officials and one official with close ties to the highest levels of government. Even if a cease-fire takes hold, and Hezbollah retains some military ability, a Lebanese public eager for peace may act as a serious check.

In the past, Iran believed that Israel might pause before attacking it because they would assume Hezbollah would assault the northern border. If Hezbollah emerges weaker, or restrained militarily because of domestic politics, Iran feels it may be more vulnerable.

“This was God’s gift to Israel,” said Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at Tehran University and an expert in Iranian foreign policy. “Hezbollah gave them the golden opportunity to attack.”

He said that Iran does not have the military ability at home to fight an aggressive offensive war against Israel from so far away. He said its only offensive tool would be a missile, which he said would be of limited effect and accuracy.

“If Israel attacked us tomorrow, what are we going to do?” he said.

Analysts and former government officials said Iran has focused on trying to preserve Hezbollah’s influence and deterrence capability. They said Iran has counseled Hezbollah not to show its full military ability to preserve Israeli uncertainty. That may prove difficult for Hezbollah to agree to, given that it is in the midst of a war, and may lead to a divergence of agendas, analysts and former government officials said.

Iran has also worked hard to convince the Lebanese, and Muslims around the world, that Hezbollah is not to blame for the destruction in Lebanon and that it is a legitimate resistance force. That is viewed here as essential to preserve Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon after the war, and with it Iran’s in the region.

Even as Iranian officials fret about the potential risks, they are savoring the ideological boost. If Hezbollah emerges as the primary political force in Lebanon, Arab governments, which have not pressed hard for a cease-fire, may find that in order to deal with Hezbollah they will have to work through Iran.

One foreign policy expert who is a sometime consultant to the government said that if Hezbollah continued to lob missiles into Israel for another six months to a year, the resulting turmoil in the region could make Iran a power to reckon with in Lebanon as it is in Iraq.

The expert, a professor of international relations at a university in Tehran who is an occasional consultant to the foreign ministry, spoke on the condition he not be identified because he was afraid of retribution.

On the domestic front, the war has promoted officials here to begin to assess how the outcome might require that they retool policies and strategies involving everything from the nuclear issue to diplomatic relations with Arab countries.

Power in Iran is not concentrated in any one hand, not even that of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but is spread out among many levels. Major decisions, like the nuclear policy, are often a result of consultation and compromise among many forces among Iran’s clerical and political elite.

Confidence in Iran’s ideological gains since the war broke out has buoyed Iran’s hard-liners, and has influenced an internal debate that has been running since the revolution, over whether Iran should focus on domestic economic and political development or on its role as a pan-Islamic leader hoping to spread its revolutionary ideas, political analysts here said.

Even before the war, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was trying to position Iran as the leader of the pan-Muslim world, to unite all Muslims, whether Arabs or Indonesians or Indians, behind the leadership of Tehran. The analysts said that Mr. Ahmadinejad, who was elected on a populist economic message, is the most ideologically driven of Iran’s presidents since the revolution.

“Iran is now playing to its strength,” said a foreign policy expert affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who like many people here said he was afraid to be identified for fear of retribution.

Iran is the only nation in the Muslim world controlled by members of the Shiite sect of Islam, and its push to be a regional leader had raised concerns among the area’s Sunni leadership.

Iran has used the war in Lebanon to try to prove that talk of a Shiite threat is a fiction created by Arab leaders and Americans seeking to maintain power in the hands of American friends in Cairo, Amman and Riyadh.

It has pointed to Israel’s destruction of Lebanon’s infrastructure to promote the idea that this war is not against Hezbollah but against all Muslims. And Iran’s leaders have sought to burnish their own image, at the expense of their Sunni rivals.

“It is inconceivable for anyone who calls himself a Muslim and who heads an Islamic state to maintain relations under the table with the regime that occupied Jerusalem,” said President Ahmadinejad in an interview on Iranian television this week, in a clear dig against governments like Egypt’s. “He cannot take pleasure in the killing of Muslims yet present himself as a Muslim. This is inconceivable, and must be exposed. Allah willing, it will.”

He posed an even more direct challenge in comments broadcast last week on Iranian television: “A bunch of people with no honor rule some countries in the region. People are being killed before their eyes, while they play games, giving compliments to one another. They think they can let time go by until this issue is forgotten, and then return to the scene. No, they are mistaken.”

The moment Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers, the United States and Israel complained that Iran and its ally, Syria, played a role in sparking the crisis.

Both have denied any advance knowledge of Hezbollah’s raid on July 12. It is hard to know here if analysts and former officials say they accept that notion because they believe it — or because they are afraid to contradict the government.

Only one influential person, Muhammad Atrianfar, publisher of the newspaper Shargh, said in an interview that Hezbollah would never stage such a significant operation without at least notifying Tehran.

“Officially, Iran is not aware of what Hezbollah does,” he said. “Logically and unofficially Iran is always aware. The reason is clear, because of all that Iran has done for Hezbollah. Hezbollah is Iran in Lebanon. When Iran looks at Hezbollah, it sees Iran.”

In fact, the accepted wisdom here is that the Israeli assault was pre-planned, and that the capture of the two soldiers was simply its excuse. Further, people here believe that the true target was Tehran, and that Israel, the United States and Arab governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are hoping to roll back Iran’s influence in the region.

“They want to cut one of Iran’s arms,” said the Iranian official with close personal ties to the highest levels of government.

“Israel and the U.S. knew that as long as Hamas and Hezbollah were there, confronting Iran would be costly,” said Mohsen Rezai, former head of the Revolutionary Guards, said in an interview with the Baztab website. “So, to deal with Iran, they first want to eliminate forces close to Iran that are in Lebanon and Palestine.”

Nazila Fathi contributed reporting for this article.

Arafat's 'fox' running rocket unit

Khaled Abu Toameh, The Jerusalem Post:

Hizbullah's top commander in southern Lebanon is a veteran Fatah operative who was very close to former Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat when the PLO was based in Beirut, Fatah officials said over the weekend.

They identified the man as Imad Mughniyeh, a former officer in Arafat's Force 17 presidential guard who has been in charge of Hizbullah's military operations in south Lebanon for the past decade.

"Imad Mughniyeh is the overall commander of the Islamic Resistance [Hizbullah's armed wing] in southern Lebanon," said a Fatah official who said he knew Mughniyeh well during the '70s and '80s. READ MORE

"He's nicknamed tha'lab [the fox], and today he's considered the second important figure in Hizbullah after Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. We're very proud to have a Palestinians holding such a high position in Hizbullah," the Fatah official said.

Mughniyeh, who is believed to have been behind the abduction of the two IDF soldiers on July 12, is also reported to be in charge of Hizbullah's rocket unit in south Lebanon. The unit has fired more than 1,600 rockets at Israel during the current violence.

When the IDF forced the PLO to leave Lebanon in 1982, Arafat entrusted Mughniyeh with transferring the organization's weapons to Lebanese militias allied with the Palestinians.

Mughniyeh, who refused to leave Beirut with the PLO leadership, joined the the Shi'ite Amal militia headed by Nabih Berri. He and Nasrallah, who was then a member of Amal, later left the movement to form Hizbullah.

Born in the Lebanese city of Tyre in 1952, Mughniyeh did not attract attention until 1976, when he joined Force 17 as a sniper targeting Christians on the Green Line dividing West and East Beirut.

Mugniyah has since been implicated in numerous terrorist attacks against the US, France and Israel, in which hundreds of people have been killed. These include three in 1983: the bombings of the US Embassy in Beirut and barracks housing US Marines and French paratroopers who were part of the Multinational Force in Lebanon.

He has also been linked to the Karine A weapons ship that Arafat tried to use to smuggle arms into the Gaza Strip in 2001.

On October 10, 2001 Mughniyeh appeared on the FBI's first "Top 22 Most Wanted Terrorists" list. A reward of $25 million was offered for information leading to his capture.

Iran Will Reject Proposed U.N. Resolution on Nuclear Program

FOX News:

Iranian state radio said Saturday that the government would reject a proposed U.N. resolution that would give it until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of international sanctions.

"Iranians will not accept unfair decisions, even in the framework of resolutions by the international bodies," the commentary on state-run radio said. READ MORE

There has been no official comment to the draft resolution, but state radio often is thought to provide the Iranian government line.

The resolution was formally circulated to the full 15-member U.N. Security Council late Friday and likely will be adopted next week.

"Ultimatum and deadline cannot be acceptable to us," the commentary said, accusing the United States and its allies of making what it called an illegal demand.

The commentary also said the draft might not be approved because of opposition by China.

Tehran said last week it would reply Aug. 22 to a Western incentive package, but the council decided to go ahead with a resolution and not wait for Iran's response.

The incentive package includes economic incentives and a provision for the United States to offer Iran some nuclear technology, lift some sanctions and join direct negotiations. The proposal also calls for Iran to impose a long-term moratorium on uranium enrichment — which can produce peaceful reactor fuel or fissile bomb material.

The U.S. and some of its allies accuse Iran of seeking nuclear weapons. Tehran maintains its program is purely peaceful and aimed at generating electricity.

Iran has said it will never give up its right under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to enrich uranium and produce nuclear fuel but has indicated it may temporarily suspend large-scale activities to ease tensions.

Iranians Being Prepared for War With Israel

Gary Dimmock, Ottawa Citizen:

A former CSIS informant who once kept tabs on terrorists says the Iranian regime is "mentally and spiritually" preparing its people for war against Israel. The Ottawa man, now in Tehran, reports that the hate campaign against Israel is in full swing on the streets of the capital.

"It is everywhere. There are posters at intersections of (Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah) saying Israel must be erased from the map," he told the Citizen. "It is not good. It is sad," he said.

Opponents of the Iranian regime in Canada say they too have received similar reports from Iranians on the ground, describing huge posters depicting the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Hezbollah leader Sheik Nasrallah with the slogan: "This war is our war." READ MORE

"I had some reports where people said that they do not care what the government of Iran wants to do. They are concerned about the possibility of more bloodshed in the Middle East and (concerned) that the government uses all Iran's money to help fight against Israel by its own Hezbollah," said Shahram Golestaneh, president of Committee for Defence of Human Rights in Iran.

Earlier this week, on Wednesday, some 60 Iranian volunteers left the country with the hopes of joining Hezbollah in the fight against Israel. They called it a holy war, were unarmed and hoped to gain entry to Lebanon from Syria.

Iran, widely reported as a chief financier for Hezbollah, has denied Israeli claims it also arms the organization established in the 1980s to combat Israeli forces.

According to Golestaneh, some Iranian dissidents were pleased to see the militants, ranging in age from teens to grandfathers, leave the country.

"In one instance," according to the human rights worker "one person said `In fact I rather they send all their loyalists to the war so we can breathe more easily.'''

The human rights group also had reports from one source on the ground who lamented: "Everytime there is an outside war, the level of repression inside also increases dramatically to kill any type of dissent."

In the past few days, according to the Canadian-based human rights group, the Iranian government has condemned 10 people to death.

By all reports, Iran's hardline president is bent on war with Israel. For starters, the Iranian president publicly denied the Holocaust last year and now says Israel has ordained its own destruction.

Ahmadinejad addressed clerical staff at prayer sermons Friday saying Israel and its supporters "should know that they cannot end the business that they have begun."

"The occupying regime of Palestine has actually pushed the button of its own destruction by launching a new round of invasion and barbaric onslaught on Lebanon," the president said, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency.

Dan Gillerman, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, responded by asking the world to listen to the Iranian president's words.

"President Ahmadinejad is a very dangerous and very destabilizing force in this world. He is a person who denies the Holocaust while very diligently preparing the next one," Gillerman told reporters according to Associated Press.

The conflict that has claimed hundreds of civilians, including vacationing Canadians, began July 12 when Hezbollah, the Lebanese guerrilla group, crossed into Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers.

gdimmock@thecitizen.canwest.com

Iran Supreme Leader Calls Hezbollah Chief 'World Favorite'

Yahoo News:

Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei feted Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah as the "people's favorite person all over the world," state television said.

His comments coincided with Nasrallah vowing to strike cities in the centre of Israel and declaring that the Jewish state had failed to win any military victory after days of bloody clashes with his Shiite militant group.

"The courageous resistance of the Lebanese people and Hezbollah is the manifestation of the rebellious spirit of Muslim and Arab nations against America," Khamenei was quoted as saying.

"Today all the Arab and Muslim nations are supporting Hezbollah. Since it is resisting America and the Zionist regime, the leader of Hezbollah has become the people's favourite person all over the world," Khamenei insisted. READ MORE

The supreme leader made the comments in a meeting with visiting Venezuelan president and fellow anti-American Hugo Chavez.

Shiite Muslim-dominated Iran is Hezbollah's main international supporter, although the Islamic republic insists it only provides "moral support" to the movement.

Since the Israeli attack on Lebanon began on July 12, Tehran has been festooned with posters of Nasrallah. Israel and Western governments have also stepped up their allegations that Iran finances and arms the group.

"The Americans are still not ready to understand what is happening, so they are accusing others of interfering in Lebanese affairs," Khamenei said in response to those allegations.

According to Khamenei, "the Zionist aggression against Lebanon is a pre-planned plot by the Americans."

He also hit out at the UN Security Council -- currently pressuring Iran over its disputed nuclear programme -- by complaining that "world bodies are not bothered and they do not object" to Israel's attack.

"The Americans got the Zionist regime involved in it, thinking they will take a long stride towards the creation of an American Middle East. But they did not factor the Lebanese people into their calculation," Khamenei told Chavez, who had earlier declared his unity with Iran to "defeat imperialism."

"The Americans were aiming at creating lackey governments, but Hezbollah's blistering attack... has foiled the American plot," Khamenei added.

In a televised address broadcast on Hezbollah's Al-Manar television Saturday, Nasrallah hailed Syria and Iran for continuing to "stand by" Hezbollah and Lebanon and for "using all their capabilities to stop the aggression on Lebanon, so that nobody accuses them of using their (influence) for their own interests in the region."

Radio Farda Interview With Dissident Akbar Ganji

Fatemeh Aman, Radio Free Europe:

RFE/RL: You speak of regime change and the establishment of a democratic system in Iran. Since you don't advocate a classical revolution, how do you want to accomplish this goal?

Akhbar Ganji: The classical revolution seeks to overthrow a system in its entirety by using violent means and dismantling all the political, economic, social, cultural, and military structures.

There are two problems with this approach. First, it is philosophically impossible. And second, it is practically undesirable. Because you cannot really change all these structures radically and replace them with something new. So it is impossible. It is undesirable because doing so will result in the use of violence, resorting to oppression, intimidation, and assassination of opponents. It is well-known that revolutions sacrifice their own children. In this sense, we do not want a revolution. A revolution is a mistake; and the bigger this mistake, the harder will be to correct it.

The other approach is to go for change but not change all the existing structures. We want to replace the political structure with one that is committed to democracy and freedom. We want to use exclusively peaceful means for this goal. We are against violence and terror. READ MORE

RFE/RL: So you believe that, in the context of the current political structure, no reform is possible?

Ganji: This depends on how you define "reform." I define it as transition to democracy. Then the question arises whether in the context of the constitution of the Islamic republic [of Iran], such transition is possible. My answer is no. However, others may define reforms in a more limited fashion -- for example, they may want economic reform. Such reform may be possible. However, transition to democracy is impossible under the current constitution.

RFE/RL: One of your criticisms of former President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) was his lack of political will to enforce reforms. But you are saying that no reform is possible within the context of constitution. So was his passivity inevitable, given the restrictions of the constitution?

Ganji: There are two issues here. One is the legal structure of the system in which the constitution gives the ultimate authority to the supreme leader and thereby makes a transition to a democratic model impossible. The other issue is the "real" structure -- the regime as it exists right now. This regime insists on more power than has been granted by the constitution.

If Khatami wanted to do everything with an absolute commitment to the constitution, he would be certainly be unable to achieve anything. Even what he did was less than what he could do under the powers he was given by the constitution.

But the real issue is that after the conservative were defeated so badly [when Khatami was elected as a reformist president in 1997], they were all in a kind of coma. In that atmosphere, we could have done many things. But Khatami squandered this historical opportunity. When conservatives tried to change the press law, Khatami could have refused to sign it. Khatami could have refused to perform the undemocratic elections in which the Guardians Council had disqualified 2000 candidates. He could have resisted the 2005 presidential elections, in which there were widespread irregularities and which gave the militarists access to executive power.

RFE/RL: Perhaps he considered this a declaration of war against the regime, and he may have wanted to avoid violence.

Ganji: Well, we say that we reject violence, terror, and revolution. However, this should not be translated into passivity. [Mohatma] Gandhi, who is the father of the nonviolent struggle, has extracted the thesis of civil disobedience out of his doctrine. Our reformist friends think that peaceful struggle necessarily means lawful activities. [But] they have tied our hands with unjust and inhumane laws, and we cannot do anything about it. Thus there is no choice other than breaking the unjust law. This is civil disobedience, and you will only have to pay the price for breaking the law.

RFE/RL: How do you describe your relationship to the reformists at this point? Is their time over, or do you think you can convince them to follow your path?

Ganji: I have a very friendly relationship with the reformists. [Saeed Hajjarian, a former deputy intelligence minister widely regarded as a main theorist behind the reformist movement] is one of my best friends. We are friends but at the same time have many differences. I don't think their time is over. Everyone can reevaluate his or her past and try to correct any mistakes committed in the past.

RFE/RL: So you may work together with them again?

Ganji: I cannot rule that out. My main problem with them is that they still want to work within the framework of the constitution. This will not work. Even to establish their democratic front, they have to get permission from the Interior Ministry. What do they do when they don't get such permission? So they will have to cease all their activities.

I believe we should push for democracy without any commitment to the current constitution of the Islamic republic. We promise that we will never resort to violence, but we will not let our hands be tied by the current laws. This is exactly what Gandhi and Martin Luther King did. They were the symbols of nonviolence, but at the same time [they] used civil disobedience to promote their cause.

RFE/RL: The movements led by Gandhi and King were long term struggles during which this culture could take root. They were popular movements, and not limited to intellectuals.

Ganji: No, the elite always starts the movement and the masses follow the elite. It has always been this way. In the Czech Republic, [Vaclav] Havel and other intellectuals were at the forefront, and people followed them. The same applied to [Nelson] Mandela and Gandhi.

RFE/RL: In the "color revolutions" among former Soviet states, there has always been a basic condition of opening of the political system that made it possible. For example, people did not have to pay with their lives for distributing leaflets. A similar atmosphere was created during Khatami's presidency. One could express his or her opinion. It seems that this condition does not exist anymore under President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. Is a "color revolution" still possible for Iran?

Ganji: The bottom line is that we want democracy, freedom, and human rights; and we pursue these demands by peaceful means and civil disobedience. It really doesn't matter how you label it. I call it a movement for democratic development in Iran, or a peace movement.

Secondly, we have to distinguish between what one wants and what one can achieve. Realities often tie one's hands. The regime wants to suppress all activities, but internal and international conditions do not allow it to do so. To refer to your example, I do not think anyone would be executed for distributing leaflets. Women gathered recently at the Haft-e Tir Square in Tehran, and many were beaten or arrested; but they were later released. The only person they did not release was Mr. Khoeini. In 18 different counties, people responded to my call for a hunger strike, including in Iran. The Office to Foster Unity (DTV) had a three-day program on this occasion, and only one person was arrested.

I have announced our next plan to be widespread protests for women rights and against sexual apartheid and discriminations against women.

RFE/RL: How concerned are you that you'll be arrested, and how will continue your movement if that happens?

Ganji: This is entirely possible. There is no guarantee that I will not be arrested, tortured, or even killed when I go back home. However, I do not see the circumstances as such that something like an execution would be a high possibility. But. Democracy and human rights we must be willing to pay for the consequences of our actionscomes with a price tag. If the activists are not willing to pay the price, nothing will be achieved. However, I do not think the price is as high as facing execution.

RFE/RL: So you think that achievements have been made that are irreversible?

Ganji: I am not referring here to any specific achievements. What I mean is that international structures make it very difficult for totalitarian systems to survive; once a system loses its totalitarian nature, the society becomes a pluralistic one. In such a society, which is no more monotonic, there are many things possible. What can be achieved then depends on people. Karl Marx once said that people build history, but not exactly the way they want to build it. History is nothing but your and my actions. If we are determined, we can get a lot done.

RFE/RL: You were one of the advocates of boycotting the recent presidential elections in Iran [in 2005]. Even certain reformist candidates came to see you after you got out of prison. Your word carried a lot of weight with some voters and persuaded them to boycott the elections. Back then, you probably did not expect Ahmadinejad to win the election. Knowing what you know now, if you were again faced with the choice between Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad, would you boycott the elections again?

Ganji: Yes. I mentioned in my first Republican Manifest that as long as the regime is not willing to accept a referendum, all elections in the Islamic republic must be boycotted. My reasoning was that one should not cooperate with a dictatorial regime and give it legitimacy. When you participate in an election -- either as a candidate or as a voter -- you are actually cooperating with the regime and legitimizing it. I believe in delegitimizing the regime, and therefore I believe that I did the right thing. I am not unhappy with results. In the previous eight years, we were fooling ourselves believing that we could get anything done within this system.

RFE/RL: So you believe that the conditions are better and more appropriate for transition to democracy now than during Khatami's presidency?

Ganji: It depends on how you look at it. It is true that media are under strict censorship, books cannot get published, and political freedoms are restricted. However, this is exactly the source of inspiration for struggle.

During the reform period, there was a glimmer of hope because people thought that by supporting the reformists against the conservatives, the system would be gradually democratized. Our experience showed that this approach will not work. We are now facing an Islamic republic that is exhibiting its utmost power to suppress the democracy movement. In such a situation, people can better make up their minds and press forward with their demands.

RFE/RL: Now that you have toured many countries and have met many opposition groups, how different is what you see from what you expected to experience on this trip? Are you more hopeful, or less?

Ganji: There is an ideal and a reality. When I compare today's reality with what we had in the past, I see a lot of progress. In the past, different groups were not willing to talk to each other. There was no tolerance. The realities of the life and our experience have forced us to sit down together, tolerate each other's views and respect each other. This is a great achievement for the democracy movement. However, we are still far from the ideal.

RFE/RL: Why did you refuse to participate in a meeting that was held at the White House?

Ganji: I was not invited to that meeting. However, I was invited to other high-ranking meetings and decided not to go.

RFE/RL: Why?

Ganji: I have no problem with talking, and I consider dialogue very positive. Mandela met with the first [President] George Bush. When he was asked why he did so, he responded, "To defeat apartheid, I am willing to meet the devil himself." The Prophet Mohammad even negotiated with polytheists. I am not the Prophet, nor is Bush a polytheist. But the question is: Who should be negotiating? This is the duty of the opposition leaders. If we had an organized democracy movement, its leadership should certainly engage in such talks -- not only with the U.S. but with all countries. However, I do not consider myself an opposition leader; I am a journalist and a political critic. I am trying to criticize the political power structure. Even when we have democracy in Iran, I will remain in this position.

RFE/RL: You have repeatedly said that we should let the voice of moderate, peaceful, and nonviolent Islam be heard and complained that media is at the service of the bin Laden type of Islam, with extensive coverage of extremists. How do you think this can be achieved?

Ganji: We have no media. Fundamentalists from all religions can inflame the world wherever they want, and they are helping each other. We, the moderate Muslims, who want to promote peace, moderation, friendship, and democracy, need to build ties with peace loving people in the West -- Christian or Jewish -- and form a united front. We need media who will echo our voice throughout the world.

We have to let people hear the voice of moderate and democratic Islam; the kind of Islam that is for reasoning and not violence. Only in this way can we isolate the fundamentalists and warmongers.

The Hezbollah Surprise

Dan Darling, The Weekly Standard:

With all the discussion, analysis, commentary, and recrimination that has surrounded U.S. intelligence failures in Iraq, it is surprising that so few parallels have been drawn to the situation in Lebanon. As in the case of Iraq, it appears there was an intelligence failure of some magnitude. This time, to be sure, it was an underestimate of the size and quality of the enemy's arsenal. But the sophistication of Hezbollah's Iranian-built missiles, stockpiled since the 2000 Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, appears to have "caught the United States and Israel off guard," the New York Times reports, "and officials in both countries are just now learning the extent to which the militant group has succeeded in getting weapons from Iran and Syria." READ MORE

From the Iranian variants of the Chinese Silkworm missile to more conventional Syrian-made warheads--innovatively filled with ball bearings so as to maximize damage to humans and property--Hezbollah's rockets have proved more formidable than expected. Moreover, combat between Hezbollah and Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in southern Lebanon has revealed the degree to which the terrorist organization improved the abilities of its irregular troops--to the point where the reported casualty ratios released by the Israeli government and various media outlets suggest that Hezbollah's fighters are more capable than the vast majority of conventional Arab armies.

Hezbollah owes all these improvements to generous support from Syria and Iran. What does it say about the state of Western intelligence that these nations were able to provide such support, including sophisticated missiles and training, without our knowledge?

One thing it points to is a pattern of intelligence failures--or of an intrinsic inability of the intelligence community to perform at the level policymakers expect. In the post-Cold War era alone, numerous examples can be cited, including the failure to predict the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the advanced status of the Iraqi nuclear program at the time of that invasion, the successes of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear programs, the extent of Libya's weapons of mass destruction programs, the activities of the Abdul Qadeer Khan proliferation network, and so on. In light of this history, the overestimation of Iraq's WMD program at the time of the 2003 U.S. invasion stands out as an unusual exception to the recent rule, which has been one of underestimating our opponents. In deed, as more information has become available regarding the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, it appears increasingly clear that both are further along than U.S. intelligence initially assessed them to be.

If there is one productive development from the fighting in Lebanon, it would be the insight it has given us into the views of the Iranian leadership on a number of topics, ranging from terrorism to their willingness to deliver sophisticated weaponry to nonstate actors. And all of it appears to add up to a disturbing portrait that the United States and its allies will need to factor into their calculations of how to deal with Iran.

With regard to terrorism, Iran appears quite willing to use Hezbollah as its proxy, continuing to support the group with advanced weapons, training, and some unknown number of Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps personnel from the elite Qods Force unit. All of this suggests that the Iranian leadership has embraced revolutionary hostility toward Israel.

However the Iranian regime regards its economic and political ties with European governments, it appears that these ties are of no consequence when it comes to persuading the Tehran regime to end its support of one of the world's most infamous terrorist groups. Indeed, Iran appears to have boosted rather than cut back its support for Hezbollah in recent years.

It's hard, therefore, to see a rational basis on which engagement with Iran can be expected to deter it from employing terrorism as a tool of statecraft, particularly if the Islamic Republic suffers no consequences from its role in the current fighting in Lebanon.

This is not an abstract consideration, given Iran's continued role in issues directly related to U.S. national security. For instance, as recently as June 23, the Washington Post quoted General George Casey, commander of the allied forces in Iraq, as saying, "We are quite confident that the Iranians, through their covert special operations forces, are providing weapons, IED [Improvised Explosive Device] technology, and training to Shia extremist groups in Iraq, the training being conducted in Iran and in some cases probably in Lebanon through their surrogates." Casey went on to say that the Iranians were "using surrogates to conduct terrorist operations in Iraq, both against us and against the Iraqi people." The extremist groups referred to by Casey are, among others, Moktada al-Sadr and his Mahdi army, members of which have cut a bloody swath of sectarian violence through Baghdad in recent weeks.

Likewise, National Journal recently reported that "U.S. officials have openly accused Iran of offering safe harbor to top al Qaeda officials who escaped the U.S. dragnet in neighboring Afghanistan"--among them the organization's de facto ministers of war and propaganda. National Journal quoted the former head of the CIA's Osama bin Laden unit as saying "there is no denying that Tehran allowed al Qaeda fighters to transit its territory and offered them occasional sanctuary for R&R. . . . It's a reminder that the Iranians have always been very clever in determining exactly what level of terrorist support they can blithely engage in without putting themselves in our bull's-eye."

Supporting Shiite extremist groups in Iraq and harboring key members of the surviving al Qaeda leadership is alarming enough. But the ease with which Iran has been able to amplify the capabilities of Hezbollah without drawing the attention of Western intelligence agencies means one must wonder whether Iran is engaged in even more alarming activities both in Iraq and with regard to al Qaeda. How would we know?

Similarly, Iran's willingness to provide sophisticated missile technology to Hezbollah belies the common argument among both diplomats and intelligence officials that the regime considers such weapons too valuable to hand out to proxy groups. According to the New York Times, "Western intelligence services did not know that Iran had managed to ship C-802 missiles to Hezbollah." (The C-802 is the sophisticated Chinese antiship missile used by Hezbollah in its attack on an Israeli warship on July 14.)

If Iran is willing to transfer such weaponry to Hezbollah, where does it draw the line? Would it one day do the same with a nuclear warhead? For that matter, what about its existing chemical and biological weapons stockpiles? Such a scenario may seem alarmist, but given the intelligence failures that have occurred to date with regard to Hezbollah's arsenal, can anyone in the intelligence community offer believable assurances that this will not occur? Or that we would be aware of such transfers before it was too late?

Ultimately, one lesson policymakers should draw from the fighting in Lebanon is that they will never have the degree of certainty about intelligence that they would like. There will always be what Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld termed "known unknowns," i.e., those things that we know that we don't know with regard to the capabilities of our enemies. Another lesson is that if we prepare for the worst, the surprises we encounter are more likely to be pleasant.

Dan Darling is a counterterrorism consultant.

Iran's Ahmadinejad: rid Persian of foreign words

The Washington Post:

Iranians should call helicopters "rotating wings" and pizzas "elastic loaves," according to a decree from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that seeks to rid Persian of European loan words.

The presidential decree carried in Saturday's newspapers said official documents, schoolbooks and newspapers should follow the rulings of the Farhangestan, Iran's linguistic policeman -- equivalent of the Academie Francaise.

"All the institutions named above should use the words created and agreed by the academy as a replacement to alien words," the decree said. READ MORE

The words created by the Farhangestan as replacements to European loan words often sound cumbersome or comic to Iranians.

Although Iranians use many English and French words, the lion's share of foreign borrowings come from Arabic. The Farhangestan takes a far easier line on Arabic imports.