Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [6/25/06 - 7/01/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.

• Yahoo News reported on the one-and-half page unofficial text supplied to Washington by the IAEA which gives their assessment that even reduced enrichment work would help Iran towards "successful long-term sustained centrifuge operation", needed to make enriched uranium that can be used for nuclear power reactor fuel or nuclear bomb material.
• The Financial Times argued that the real issue is not what Iran agrees to with the Perm-5 but how determined it is to pursue a nuclear weapons program.
• IRNA reported that the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani said concerning the nuclear issue, Iran believes in the win-win game and that attempts are made to this end.
• Regnum reported that the Russian state company Atomstroy export started preparing to launch a water-conditioning system at the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, the first step in starting the reactor.
• Yahoo News reported that Germany's foreign minister said it was inconceivable that the six powers that made an offer of incentives to Iran should have to wait until August 22 for a response.
• Yahoo News reported that Britain's new ambassador has appealed to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to give an "early response" to the international package aimed at defusing concerns over Iran's nuclear program.
• TurkishPress.com reported on Turkey's Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul’s visit to Iran to start a process of negotiation between the West and Iran to solve the nuclear crisis.
• The New York Times reported that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that talks with the United States would not benefit the Islamic Republic, which is embroiled in a dispute over its nuclear program with the West.
• FOX News reported that Tony Snow said officials don't consider the supreme leader's comments to be an official response. Huh?
• Reuters reported that Germany's defense minister said Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium for power generation provided there is close monitoring by U.N. inspectors to ensure that it is not trying to develop atomic weapons.
• Yahoo News reported that a meeting between EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Iran's top nuclear negotiator has been postponed until after Group of Eight foreign ministers meet on Thursday.
• The Washington Post reported that Foreign ministers from the Group of Eight industrialized nations meet in Moscow on Thursday.
• The Guardian reported that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice flew to the Russian capital to join international talks on Iran's nuclear program as the world awaits Tehran's response.
• The Guardian reported that Iran's foreign minister has indicated that his country may respond before mid-July to an international package aimed at resolving a standoff over its nuclear program.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com argued why the G-8 foreign ministers in Moscow need to demand a July 5th deadline for Iran to give an answer its offer of a nuclear deal.
• Forbes reported that the United States, Russia and other industrial democracies said Thursday they expect Iran to answer "yes" or "no" by July 5th. Yes, Russia wants an answer now.
• CBS News reported that Iran's foreign minister brushed aside the demand from the major industrialized nations to respond by July 5 th. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Iran had questions about the proposal that will be raised in talks expected early next month with Javier Solana.
• The Financial Times argued that the West should play Iran at its game. They said: If the Iranian regime is playing a delaying game, the west should not abandon the waiting game. ... Mr Ahmadi-Nejad must be seen by his fellow Iranians to be dragging Iran into isolation rather than being pushed there by the US.
• Los Angeles Times reported that the US, Russia and other key industrialized countries increased pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, declaring that Tehran's intentions would be judged based on its response next week to its proposal. Next week's meeting, they said, should "bring these discussions to a rapid conclusion."
• Reuters reported that the US rejected Iranian calls for more time to study an offer of incentives to curb its nuclear activities, insisting Tehran must respond by a G8 deadline next week.
• CBS News reported that now that the G-8 have given Iran a July 5th deadline for a response to its nuclear proposal there is fear that Iran attempt to accept part of the package but reject other parts.
• News 24 reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Tehran will continue its uranium enrichment program, saying: "The Iranian government and the people have decided, and without any doubt with dignity and glory we will pass this phase."
  

Tehran's bloody Prosecutor a delegate to the UN's Human Rights body.

• Yahoo News reported that Iran rejected Canadian calls for the prosecution of Tehran chief prosecutor Said Mortazavi over the death in custody of a photo-journalist with Canadian citizenship, calling "The Canadian claims are "illogical." He added: "The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that a country which still has traces of British colonialism is not at a level at which it can make such illogical and illegal comments and expect to be listened to."
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun reported that an Iranian prosecutor, Mr. Mortazavi, who is accused of condoning the torture, rape, and murder of a Canadian photojournalist has eluded arrest after Canadian Prime Minister Harper made an appeal to the world to use "all manner of law" available to apprehend him. A preview of UN sanctions on Iran?
• Eli Lake, The New York Sun argued why America could learn a thing or two from Canada on how to deal with Iran.
  

Iran's leaders latest statements.

• Tehran Times reported that Iran's Supreme Leader issued a decree establishing the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations and appointed Kamal Kharrazi as its chairman, tasked with setting up the council to assist in making major decisions and to seek new horizons in Iran’s foreign relations.
• Rooz Online reported that Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the spiritual mentor of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, "One cannot expect everyone in a country of 70 million people to be deserving and righteous, but 7 million believers can be raised from amongst them." Mesbah Yazdi himself spoke of the “forthcoming” Islamic government and described ways of forming it. A must read.
• The New York Times reported that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that talks with the United States would not benefit the Islamic Republic, which is embroiled in a dispute over its nuclear program with the West.
• A. Savyon*, MEMRI explains how Iran's Supreme Leaders announce of a new Foreign Relations Steering Council, whose official function is to set Iran's foreign relations policy and strategy is designed to limit the power of Ahmadinejad and his mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.
• Rooz Online argued why Iran's new "Council on Foreign Relations" is unlikely help resolve Iran's foreign policy problems.
  

Iranian Dissidents.

• Rooz Online reported Iran’s best-known imprisoned dissident journalist, Akbar Ganji, released last month who is touring Europe said Islamic democracy made no sense.
  

Iranian leaderships unity weakening?

• Rooz Online interviewed, Ali Akbar Moinfar, member of the Revolutionary Council of Iran and former minister of oil who said that the current "unity" of the Iranian leadership "is only a pipe-dream in Iran."
  

Unrest in Iran.

• IRNA reported that unofficial reports said four people were injured and five cars damaged as a result of a blast in the southern city of Shiraz.
• SMCCDI also reported on the blast and that while authorities have attributed the blast to an incident that involved an oil tanker they added: the same type of strange reason has been advanced, in the past, in reference to strange explosions.
• Iran Focus reported that there have been some 480 anti-government protests inside of Iran in the past month. But the Western media remains silent. Photo.
• SMCCDI reported that a feared cleric was shot to death by a local resident in western Iran. The victim, Rahim Dastyar, was a representative of the regime' s supreme leader.
• Rooz Online reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran spent $350 million to equip and arm 2 brigades of Baseej mass-mobilization forces with heavy weapons. These two brigades had been involved in crushing the student protests. (This is just the latest investment, but the US Senate still can't seem to approve the White House's request for $75 million to support the Iranian opposition.) A must read.
• Reuters reported that suspected tribal militants, fighting for greater political and economic autonomy, blew up a railway line linking southwestern Pakistan to Iran early on Saturday.
• Middle East Newsline reported that Iran was said to have been besieged by unrest. Iranian opposition sources reported a sharp increase in civil unrest throughout the country.
  

More troublemaking by the Iranian regime.

• Mail & Guardian reported that Iran threatened to allow drug traffickers to flood Europe with narcotics unless its costly border-security operation is given a massive $500 million hike in United Nations funding.
• WorldNetDaily.com reported that Senior Palestinian security officials said two Israeli soldiers were killed and another was kidnapped by terrorists trained by Iranian Revolutionary Guard units and tied to Al Qaeda.
• The Guardian reported that intelligence agencies have warned ministers that Iran could launch terrorist attacks against British targets if the row over its controversial nuclear program escalates.
  

Human Rights and Freedom of the Press in Iran.

• Human Rights Watch asked Iran’s judiciary to rescind the death sentences of at least 10 Iranians of Arab origin convicted of plotting against the state, and retry them before courts that meet international fair trial standards.
• Rooz Online reported that as the regime pursues its policies of confronting student activists, the center for activities of protesting students, the Islamic society of Isfahan University was shut by official order.
• Rooz Online reported that activists of the women’s movement in Iran have been under interrogations by security agents since their last rally in Tehran on June 12.
• SMCCDI reported that students of the Ashtian Azad University protested against the arrest and pressure made on a female students.
• The Guardian reported on how some Iranian Jews are learning to live with Ahmadinejad.
• Los Angeles Times reported that in what call Iranian students call a "purge," more than 40 professors at Tehran University were last week unexpectedly forced to retire.
• Macleans reported that two months have passed since the Iranian-Canadian philosopher Ramin Jahanbegloo was locked in Tehran's notorious Evin prison, Canada is making so little headway in securing his release. His wife said: "He is in poor shape and has lost a lot of weight."
• Adnkronos International reported that an Iran court has sentenced a Kurdish woman, Malak Ghorbany, found guilty of committing adultery to death by stoning. Photo. See also a video of a stoning if you have a strong stomach.
• Amnesty International said that as the annual Babek Castle cultural gathering of Iranian Azeri Turks approaches on 30 June 2006, they are urging the Iranian authorities to exercise restraint while policing the gathering.
• Rooz Online reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran spent $350 million to equip and arm 2 brigades of Baseej mass-mobilization forces with heavy weapons. These two brigades had been involved in crushing the student protests. A must read.
• Rooz Online reported on a gathering to protest the detention of a former Majlis MP.
• Kuwait Times reported that a human rights group said Syria detained several leading Iranian Arab rebel leaders yesterday. The human rights group fear they will send them back to Iran.
• Amnesty International claimed that Sayed Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho’ini is a prisoner of conscience in Iran. Sayed is a former student leader and former member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, the Majles (Iran’s parliament) who was reportedly arrested during a peaceful demonstration in the capital, Tehran.
  

Iran's Oil Weapon.

• Yahoo News reported that Iran's oil minister warned that Iran would use oil as a weapon if its interests are attacked, state television has reported. "If the country's interests are attacked, we will use all our capabilities and oil is one of them."
• Mehran Riazaty reminded us that the head of energy commission in Iran’s Parliament, Kamal Danesshyar, said that the real price of oil is $100 a barrel and it has not yet reached its real price.
• Lawrence Kudlow, The New York Sun responded to the West's fear that the Iranian crisis may lead to sky rocketing oil prices. He argues we may instead be looking at a downward correction that will have oil prices dropping more than anyone imagines possible. A must read for those who fear Iran's "oil weapon."
  

The Iranian Economy.

• Strategiy.com reported that Iran expects to earn 60 billion dollars from oil exports in its current financial year that ends on March 20, 2007. This is $10 billion more than last year.
• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's Gazprom and Iran have agreed to study the possibility of forming a joint enterprise to develop oil and gas deposits.
• Ilan Berman, AFPC reported that Ahmadinejad is weathering growing domestic discontent with his rule as he has failed to make good on his pre-election promises of economic prosperity. He said that more than 100,000 jobs have been lost since March and inflation is currently at some 17 percent and is expected to rise.
• Rooz Online interviewed Hadi Zonooz, one of the authors of the letter signed by 50 Iranian economists wrote to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warning him of serious problems. He said the administration responded to the letter politically, and not economically.
• Yahoo News reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guards are set to enter the oil and gas sectors. "The Revolutionary Guards have obtained the contract to develop phases 15 and 16 of South Pars," a huge offshore gas field. The contract was worth 2.09 billion dollars.
• Rooz Online reported that fearing international sanctions, the Iranian regime has encouraged massive imports. The volume imports are so great that Iranian ports cannot handle the volume. But economists warn that these imports are having a crushing effect on the Iranian economy.
  

Iran and Iraq.

• The Telegraph published the first picture of an Iraqi insurgent mine manufactured inside of Iran, believed to have been responsible for the deaths of 17 British soldiers.
• Adnkronos International reported that Ahmadinejad will visit Iraq soon to meet with Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, and Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.
• World Tribune.com reported that Iranian-sponsored Shi'ites have launched an offensive in Iraq, a day after U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. George Casey, accused Iran of being a leading source of instability in Iraq.
• Stratfor argued that Ahmadinejad's planned visit to Iraq in the near future strongly suggests that Tehran is close to consolidating its position in Iraq.
• Excite News reported that Iraqi and U.S. troops battled Shi'ite militiamen in a village northeast of Baghdad on Thursday. Iraqi security officials said Iranian fighters had been captured in the fighting.
• Michael Ledeen, National Review Online examined the recent report that Iranian fighters had been captured in the fighting inside of Iraq and answers the question: Who’s an Iraqi? Who’s a Shiite? What’s the Iranian threat, anyway?
  

Iran and the International community.

• Robert T. McLean, Spectator reported on the return of the Non-Aligned Movement and its support for Iran.
• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's defense minister denied reports that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp missile specialists were trained at an aerospace university in southern Russia.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that the presidents of Iran and Venezuela took advantage of a summit of African leaders Saturday to declare solidarity with the impoverished continent and to lash out at the West.
  

US Government on Iran.

• George W. Bush, The White House said that ten years ago yesterday, in an attack on the Khobar Towers apartment complex in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, 19 members of our Armed Forces were killed, and hundreds of other Americans were injured, by terrorists who we believe were working with Iranian officials.
  

Must Read reports.

• RIA Novosti reported that Tehran is prepared to assist in releasing four Russian diplomats abducted by Al Qaeda insurgents in the Iraqi capital. By making this statement, Iran has admitted it's over Al Qaeda.
• Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported that Iran is to hold its controversial proposed conference on the Holocaust in October.
• Alan Peters, AntiMullah believes he knows why Iran Chose Mid-August to respond to the Perm-5 nuclear offer.
• The Telegraph reported the belief amongst most intelligence agencies is that a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) attack, using a so-called dirty bomb, is now inevitable.
• Potkin Azarmehr, Azarmehr Weblog said the Islamic Republic think tank units expertly target the Western newspaper journalists who have the potential of opinion making. Through their "officials" they feed these "experts" with their "sources" of information. A must read.
• Rooz Online reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran spent $350 million to equip and arm 2 brigades of Baseej mass-mobilization forces with heavy weapons. These two brigades had been involved in crushing the student protests. (This is just the latest investment, but the US Senate still can't seem to approve the White House's request for $75 million to support the Iranian opposition.) A must read.
• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's defense minister confirmed a Ukrainian firm supplied China and Iran with six long-range cruise missiles in 2000-2001. The missiles were the Soviet Kh-55 Granat missiles (NATO reporting name AS-15 Kent) with nuclear capacity.
• Reuters reported that as many as 30,000 Iranian exiles affiliated with the NCRI/MEK rallied near Paris on Saturday, calling on Western powers to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb and urging democratic change in Tehran. The NCRI/MEK is considered a terrorist group by the US government.
  

The Experts.

• Peter Hoekstra and Rick Santorum, The Wall Street Journal asked, why is our intelligence community holding back the evidence of Saddam's WMD's?
• Richard Perle, The Washington Post asked, why did Bush blink on Iran?
• DoctorZin, 5 Reasons you should not believe the media's favorite "Iran Experts."
• Amir Taheri, Gulf News argued that as the Arab world considers what they should do to meet the challenges they face in a world not made by, and for, them? Taheri provides methods for testing the worth of the various governmental systems in Arab world.
• The Heritage Foundation published the testimony of James Phillips before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on: U.S. Policy and Iran's Nuclear Challenge.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com argued why the G-8 foreign ministers in Moscow need to demand a July 5th deadline for Iran to give an answer its offer of a nuclear deal.
• Michael Ledeen, National Review Online examined the recent report that Iranian fighters had been captured in the fighting inside of Iraq and answers the question: Who’s an Iraqi? Who’s a Shiite? What’s the Iranian threat, anyway?
• Reza Bayegan, American Jewish Committee reviewed the anti-Semitism of the Islamic Republic of Iran's leadership and contrasted it with Iran's opposition leadership.
• American Enterprise Institute hosted a panel discussion with Michael Connell, Danielle Pletka, and AEI scholars Nicholas Eberstadt, Michael Rubin, and Gary Schmitt to discuss the U.S. offer to join Britain, France, and Germany in meeting with Iranian representatives if Iran suspended uranium enrichment. A video.
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• Iran Focus reported that there have been some 480 anti-government protests inside of Iran in the past month. But the Western media remains silent. Photo.
• Adnkronos International reported that an Iran court has sentenced a Kurdish woman, Malak Ghorbany, found guilty of committing adultery to death by stoning. Photo. See also a video of a stoning if you have a strong stomach.
• Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Unrequited War.
• American Enterprise Institute hosted a panel discussion on the U.S. offer to join Britain, France, and Germany in meeting with Iranian representatives if Iran suspended uranium enrichment. A video.

The Quote of the Week.

Rooz Online reported that Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the spiritual mentor of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, hopes for 10% support from the Iranian people:

"One cannot expect everyone in a country of 70 million people to be deserving and righteous, but 7 million believers can be raised from amongst them." Mesbah Yazdi himself spoke of the “forthcoming” Islamic government and described ways of forming it.

Tags: iran, news, iraq, nuclear, military,

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 7.2.2006:

Iranian rebels blow up railway line.

• Reuters reported that suspected tribal militants, fighting for greater political and economic autonomy, blew up a railway line linking southwestern Pakistan to Iran early on Saturday.
• Middle East Newsline reported that Iran was said to have been besieged by unrest. Iranian opposition sources reported a sharp increase in civil unrest throughout the country.

Syria detains Iranian rebels.

• Kuwait Times reported that a human rights group said Syria detained several leading Iranian Arab rebel leaders yesterday. The human rights group fear they will send them back to Iran.

G8 fear Iran will not give a yes or no answer.

• CBS News reported that now that the G-8 have given Iran a July 5th deadline for a response to its nuclear proposal there is fear that Iran attempt to accept part of the package but reject other parts.
• News 24 reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Tehran will continue its uranium enrichment program, saying: "The Iranian government and the people have decided, and without any doubt with dignity and glory we will pass this phase."

30,000 MEK rally in Paris?

• Reuters reported that as many as 30,000 Iranian exiles affiliated with the NCRI/MEK rallied near Paris on Saturday, calling on Western powers to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb and urging democratic change in Tehran. The NCRI/MEK is considered a terrorist group by the US government.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Amnesty International claimed that Sayed Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho’ini is a prisoner of conscience in Iran. Sayed is a former student leader and former member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, the Majles (Iran’s parliament) who was reportedly arrested during a peaceful demonstration in the capital, Tehran.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that the presidents of Iran and Venezuela took advantage of a summit of African leaders Saturday to declare solidarity with the impoverished continent and to lash out at the West.
• American Enterprise Institute hosted a panel discussion with Michael Connell, Danielle Pletka, and AEI scholars Nicholas Eberstadt, Michael Rubin, and Gary Schmitt to discuss the U.S. offer to join Britain, France, and Germany in meeting with Iranian representatives if Iran suspended uranium enrichment. A video.

Tags: iran, news, nuclear,

Nuke program 'will continue'

News 24:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Tehran will continue its uranium enrichment programme, despite international calls to halt the sensitive project, reported state television on Saturday.

"The Iranian government and the people have decided, and without any doubt with dignity and glory we will pass this phase," said Ahmadinejad, after explaining Iran's fuel cycle programme to Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo in Gambia. READ MORE

Ahmadinejad is in Gambia to address the African Union summit.

Tehran is under mounting pressure to respond to an international offer that would defuse the nuclear standoff.

World powers gave Iran one more week on Thursday, to provide a "clear and substantive response" to an international proposal on suspending uranium enrichment.

Tehran has rejected the deadline.

Diplomatic Déjà vu?: Nuclear Deal-Making with Iran

American Enterprise Institute:

Earlier this month, the U.S. government offered to join Britain, France, and Germany in meeting with Iranian representatives if Iran suspended uranium enrichment and reprocessing work. Included in the proposal were a series of incentives, including an offer to help build a light-water nuclear reactor, which is seen as less of a threat than the country's uranium enrichment program. While many diplomats hailed the offer and possibility of U.S.-Iranian talks as a breakthrough, the deal is strikingly similar to the 1994 U.S.–North Korea Agreed Framework, in which Pyongyang promised to suspend its enrichment program in exchange for two proliferation-resistant nuclear reactors and additional aid. North Korea soon abrogated its promises and has since announced that it has nuclear weapons.

What are the implications of this recent proposal? Why did the North Korean deal fail? Will an agreement with Iran be more successful? Is Tehran's strategy different from Pyongyang's? These and other questions will be the subject of an AEI panel discussion with Michael Connell, an Iran specialist at the Center for Naval Analyses; Danielle Pletka, AEI vice president for foreign and defense policy studies; and AEI scholars Nicholas Eberstadt, Michael Rubin, and Gary Schmitt. AEI resident scholar Frederick W. Kagan will moderate. READ MORE

Speaker biographies

Michael Connell is an analyst at the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA). While at CNA, Dr. Connell has directed or authored several studies focusing on political, military, and security issues in the Middle East and south Asia. During the course of his military and academic careers, he has traveled extensively in those regions. He specializes in Iranian history and politics, and is currently conducting research on the role of the Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iranian national security decision-making. Before joining CNA, Dr. Connell served as a military intelligence officer in the U.S. Army.

Nicholas Eberstadt is the Henry Wendt Scholar in Political Economy at AEI and senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research in Seattle. He serves on the advisory board of the Korea Economic Institute of America and is a founding member of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea. Mr. Eberstadt regularly consults for governmental and international organizations, including the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. State Department, USAID, and World Bank. In 2006, he was appointed to the President’s Council on Bioethics. He has published over 300 studies and articles in scholarly and popular journals, mainly on topics in demography, international development, and East Asian security. His dozen-plus books and monographs include The Poverty of Communism (Transaction, 1988), The Population of North Korea (Institute for East Asian Studies, 1992), The Tyranny of Numbers (AEI Press, 1995), The End of North Korea (AEI Press, 1999), Korea's Future and the Great Power (National Bureau of Asian Research, 2001) and the forthcoming North Korea's Economy Between Crisis and Catastrophe (Transaction Books).

Danielle Pletka is the vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at AEI. Her research areas include the Middle East, south Asia, terrorism, and weapons proliferation. While at AEI, Ms. Pletka developed a conference series on rebuilding post-Saddam Iraq and a project on democracy in the Arab world. She recently served as a member of the congressionally-mandated Task Force on the United Nations, established by the United States Institute of Peace. Before coming to AEI, she served for ten years as a senior professional staff member for the Near East and south Asia on the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

Michael Rubin is a resident scholar in foreign policy studies at AEI, where he studies Arab democracy, Kurdish society, and domestic politics in Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. Prior to joining AEI, he served as a political advisor to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad from 2003 to 2004. Previously, he was a staff advisor for Iran and Iraq in the Office of the Secretary of Defense during 2002–2004. He is currently the editor of the Middle East Quarterly.

Gary Schmitt is a resident scholar and director of AEI’s Program on Advanced Strategic Studies. Prior to coming to AEI, he helped found and served as executive director of the Project for the New American Century, a Washington-based foreign and defense policy think tank. In the early 1980s, Dr. Schmitt was a member of the professional staff of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and, from 1982–1984, served as the committee’s minority staff director. In 1984, he was appointed by President Reagan to the post of executive director of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, the White House. Dr. Schmitt has written books and articles about a number of topics, including the American founding, the U.S. presidency, the American political system, intelligence and national security affairs.

Frederick W. Kagan is a resident scholar in defense and security policy studies. Previously he was an associate professor of military history at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. He is the coauthor of While America Sleeps: Self-Delusion, Military Weakness, and the Threat to Peace Today (St. Martin’s Press, 2000), and has written numerous articles on defense and foreign policy issues for the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, The Weekly Standard, Policy Review, Commentary, Parameters, and other periodicals. His book Finding the Target (Encounter Books), an examination of military transformation, will come out later this year.)

Watch the video of the event.

Iranian exiles hold anti-nuclear rally in France

Reuters:

Thousands rallied in support of an Iranian exile group near Paris on Saturday, calling on Western powers to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb and urging democratic change in Tehran.

Maryam Rajavi, leader of the France-based National Council of Resistance of Iran, said the NCRI hoped to oust Iran's clerical rulers and set up a democratic interim government.

"The solution to the nuclear crisis and to avert a war is democratic change in Iran," she told a crowd in a hangar used as an exhibition hall north of Paris. Organisers said 30,000 people demonstrated. Police did not have immediate numbers. READ MORE

Western powers suspect Tehran is trying to build nuclear weapons. Iran says it only wants to enrich uranium to a level suitable for use in generating electricity.

The NCRI came to international attention after revealing in 2002 that Tehran was running secret uranium enrichment programmes. It is the political wing of the People's Mujahideen, an armed guerrilla movement listed as a terrorist group by the United States.

French authorities imprisoned several members of the NCRI -- including Rajavi -- briefly in 2003 on a charge of "association with criminals in connection with a terrorist enterprise".

They had been under judicial controls since then, but a French court eased some restrictions on members last month.

The group is still banned from fundraising.

The US Government has classified the NCRI a terrorist organization.

Presidents of Iran, Venezuela last out at West

The Jerusalem Post:

The presidents of Iran and Venezuela took advantage of a summit of African leaders Saturday to declare solidarity with the impoverished continent and to lash out at the West, comparing Africa's centuries-old slave trade to a modern-day struggle for Third World freedom. READ MORE

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez backed Iran's controversial nuclear enrichment program, which the United States and the European Union want rolled back despite Iran's insistence that its nuclear ambitions are peaceful.

"Doesn't Iran have the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful means?" Chavez said during a summit of the 53-nation African Union in Gambia's capital, Banjul. "Obviously, it has the right."

Chavez said his nation was "tired of being exploited by the American empire. We said: 'No more,' and we have broken our chains and we are building a Venezuela independent of foreign intervention."

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused "bullying powers" of plundering the wealth of poorer nations, but did not specifically name any.

Militants Blow Up Pakistan Railway Track to Iran

Reuters:

Suspected tribal militants, fighting for greater political and economic autonomy, blew up a railway line linking southwestern Pakistan to Iran early on Saturday, a railway official said.

Four bombs exploded at the railway track near the town of Noshki in southern Baluchistan province several hours before the train bound for the Iranian border town of Zahedan was due to pass. Noshki is 60 miles southwest of Quetta, capital of Baluchistan. READ MORE

"The train was stopped shortly after it left Quetta. No one was hurt in the blast," Mohmmad Mushtaq, a senior railway official in Quetta, told Reuters.

He said a fifth bomb remained unexploded and efforts were being made to defuse it.

No one claimed responsibility for the blasts but the government has previously blamed Baluch militants for such attacks.

Meanwhile, security forces have detained 13 suspected militants in a crackdown, backed by helicopter gunships, in the town of Dera Bugti, a stronghold of a rebel tribal leader.

There were no immediate reports of any casualties in the operation that was carried out late Friday night, a local official said on condition of anonymity.

Baluchistan, bordering Iran and Afghanistan, is the largest but the poorest of Pakistan's four provinces and has the country's largest gas and oil reserves.

Baluch militants regularly blow up railway links, gas pipelines and power pylons, and launch attacks on government buildings and army bases to press for their demands for more benefits from oil and gas exploration. The simmering revolt escalated in December when rebels fired rockets during a visit by President Pervez Musharraf to the town of Kohlu.

Musharraf has announced plans for major infrastructure projects in Baluchistan but has vowed to deal firmly with the rebel leaders.

Iran Besieged By Strikes

Middle East Newsline:

Iran was said to have been besieged by unrest. Iranian opposition sources reported a sharp increase in civil unrest throughout the country. The sources said Iranian authorities have encountered labor strikes, protests and ethnic clashes over the last month.

"The growth in number of uprisings in the Azeri provinces was such that hundreds of thousands of people poured into the streets," Muhajadeen Khalq, the leading opposition force, said on June 28. "The situation in other provinces was not any different."

Muhajadeen reported more than 480 demonstrations, strikes, protests, and clashes throughout Iran in June. In a statement, the opposition group said the unrest rocked such cities as Kerman, Mashhad, Qom and Teheran.

G-8 Gives Iran A Deadline; Now What?

Charles Wolfson, CBS News:

Negotiations between Iran and the international community are shifting into a higher gear. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her fellow foreign ministers from the so-called G-8 industrialized nations agreed in Moscow this week on a set of meetings over the next two weeks which could result in finding out whether Iran will abandon its nuclear weapons program.

On July 5, the European Union's Javier Solana will meet with Ali Larijani, Iran's designated point man on the nuclear issue. The G-8 ministers, disappointed they haven't received a response to an offer of economic and energy-related incentives said, in a statement issued at the conclusion of their Moscow meeting, "We expect to hear a clear and substantive Iranian response to these proposals at the planned meeting ... on 5 July."

According to senior State Department officials, speaking to reporters on background, Rice suggested a follow-up meeting of foreign ministers on July 12 where the representatives of the international community who made the offer to Iran can assess Tehran's response.

The timing of these two meetings is meant to find out whether Tehran will give up its nuclear weapons ambitions before President Bush and other G-8 leaders gather in mid-July in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Now the question is, will Iran actually give a clear answer to the offer on the table? It is hard to find an American official who has been dealing with this issue who will actually predict the Iranians will do what is being demanded. Skepticism varies among Washington's partners but the simple fact is no one seems to have a real handle on what Iran will decide. If it chooses to ignore the incentive package offered, senior American officials say the alternative is to return to the path leading to sanctions from the U.N. Security Council.

However, the real problem will be what to do if Larijani, as many expect, comes to the July 5 meeting and offers to accept part of the package but reject other parts. The Iranians have a reputation as both good diplomats and good bargainers. Even if they eventually sign on to a deal, it's unlikely they'll do it on Washington's timeline. Senior State Department officials say they expect the Iran nuclear issue to be a key part of the G-8 leaders' agenda, just as it was this week for their foreign ministers' meeting. READ MORE

As of now, Rice and her top aides appear to be holding their coalition partners together despite Iranian efforts to drive a wedge between them. Whether they can continue to do so will depend on what Larijani has to say, and senior officials candidly acknowledge they're not exactly certain about the next diplomatic steps.

Fear of Torture and Ill-treatment: Sayed Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho'ini

Amnesty International:

Sayed Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho’ini was reportedly arrested during a peaceful demonstration in the capital, Tehran, which called for legal reforms to end discrimination against women in Iran. At least 69 other people were arrested, but all except Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho’ini have since been released. Amnesty International believes him to be a prisoner of conscience, held solely on account of the peaceful exercise of his internationally recognized right to freedom of expression and association, and he is at risk of torture or
ill-treatment.

Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho’ini, a former student leader and former member of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, the Majles (Iran’s parliament), is also the Head of the Alumni Association of Iran (Sazman-e Danesh Amukhtegan-e Iran-e Eslami [Advar-e Tahkim-e Vahdat]), which he helped found in 2000. This organization, whose membership is open to graduates of Iranian universities, has been active in promoting democracy and human rights in Iran. During his term in parliament he was an active advocate of human rights, and highlighted the cases of imprisoned students and political prisoners, including by inspecting prisons and illegal detention centres. READ MORE

Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho’ini is reportedly held in section 209 of Tehran's Evin Prison, run by the Ministry of Intelligence. Security officials were alleged to have beaten him when he was arrested, and further reports have suggested that he has been beaten while held in detention.

Fourteen days after his arrest he was reportedly allowed visits from his family and one of his lawyers. The lawyer reportedly said that the charges against his client included making a statement to the Mehr news agency based in Tehran, the details of which were not specified. Other reports have suggested that he is accused of "spreading lies". According to reports, prior to his participation in the women’s rights demonstration, security officers had contacted Ali Akbar Mousavi-Kho’ini by telephone and warned him against supporting and participating in the protest.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

On 12 June 2006 the Iranian security forces forcibly broke up a peaceful demonstration by women and men advocating an end to legal discrimination against women in Iran. The demonstrators had gathered in the "Seventh of Tir" Square in Tehran to call, among other things, for changes in the law to give a woman's testimony in court equal value to that of a man; and for married women to be allowed to choose their employment and to travel freely without obtaining the prior permission of their husband.

Police officers, including a large unit of policewomen, reportedly moved in as soon as the demonstration began and forced the protesters to disperse, including by beating some with batons. Scores of protesters were detained; on 13 June 2006, Minister of Justice and Spokesman for the Judiciary Jamal Karimi-Rad stated that 42 women and 28 men had been arrested for participating in what he alleged was an illegal demonstration. When questioned about the reports of beatings by police, he said, "If there was any beating, it will be reviewed".

Syria Detains Iran Arab rebel leaders

Kuwait Times:

Syria detained several leading Iranian Arab rebel leaders yesterday, a human rights group said, voicing concern for their fate if they are handed over to Damascus's key regional ally Tehran.

"The Syrian authorities have arrested several officials of the Ahvaz Arab People's Democratic-Popular Front living in exile in Damascus, including the movement's spokesman Taher Ali Mazraa," the chairman of the Syrian Organization for Human Rights, Mohannad Al-Hassani, told AFP.

"We express our deep concern about the wave of arrests under way and fear the prisoners may be handed over to the Iranian authorities, a serious step that would constitute a breach of Syrian law," Hassani said. READ MORE

"We demand the release of the Ahvazi citizens and call on the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to assume its responsibilities by intervening with the Syrian authorities to prevent the prisoners being delivered up to Iran."

The UN agency already expressed concern on June 6 for the safety of four Iranian Arab exiles previous detained in Syria, after one refugee who had qualified for resettlement in Europe was forcibly repatriated by Damascus.

UNHCR spokesman Ron Redmond said at the time that seven Iranian Arabs had been detained by Syria but three had been released following representations by the UN agency.

The deportee was sent back to Iran even though he had been recognized as a refugee by the UNHCR and had been due to be resettled in Norway in early April.

In late May, Iran said that Syria and neighbouring Turkey had arrested several individuals suspected of involvement in a recent bombing campaign in the Arab-majority southwestern oil city of Ahvaz and that it was seeking their extradition.

Ahvaz was rocked by ethnic riots in April 2005 and a string of car bombings in the run-up to the June 2005 presidential election, followed by more bomb attacks in October last year and January this year.

Human rights groups have expressed concern about the situation in Iran's southwestern province of Khuzestan, of which Ahvaz is the capital, accusing the Islamic republic of cracking down on Arab groups and imposing a media blackout.

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 7.1.2006:

Iran invests in $1/3 Billion to suppress its internal opposition.

• Rooz Online reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran spent $350 million to equip and arm 2 brigades of Baseej mass-mobilization forces with heavy weapons. These two brigades had been involved in crushing the student protests. (This is just the latest investment, but the US Senate still can't seem to approve the White House's request for $75 million to support the Iranian opposition.) A must read.

Iranian fighters captured in Iraq.

• Excite News reported that Iraqi and U.S. troops battled Shi'ite militiamen in a village northeast of Baghdad on Thursday. Iraqi security officials said Iranian fighters had been captured in the fighting.
• Michael Ledeen, National Review Online examined the recent report that Iranian fighters had been captured in the fighting inside of Iraq and answers the question: Who’s an Iraqi? Who’s a Shiite? What’s the Iranian threat, anyway?

Perm-5 plus 1 give Iran hold firm on July 5th deadline for Iran's response.

• Los Angeles Times reported that the US, Russia and other key industrialized countries increased pressure on Iran over its nuclear program, declaring that Tehran's intentions would be judged based on its response next week to its proposal. Next week's meeting, they said, should "bring these discussions to a rapid conclusion."
• Reuters reported that the US rejected Iranian calls for more time to study an offer of incentives to curb its nuclear activities, insisting Tehran must respond by a G8 deadline next week.

Iranian regime damages its economy as it preps for sanctions

• Rooz Online reported that fearing international sanctions, the Iranian regime has encouraged massive imports. The volume imports are so great that Iranian ports cannot handle the volume. But economists warn that these imports are having a crushing effect on the Iranian economy.

Ganji: Islamic Democracy makes no sense!

• Rooz Online reported Iran’s best-known imprisoned dissident journalist, Akbar Ganji, released last month who is touring Europe said Islamic democracy made no sense.

Iranian opposition is not anti-Semitic.

• Reza Bayegan, American Jewish Committee reviewed the anti-Semitism of the Islamic Republic of Iran's leadership and contrasted it with Iran's opposition leadership.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's defense minister confirmed a Ukrainian firm supplied China and Iran with six long-range cruise missiles in 2000-2001. The missiles were the Soviet Kh-55 Granat missiles (NATO reporting name AS-15 Kent) with nuclear capacity.
• Rooz Online reported on a gathering to protest the detention of a former Majlis MP.
• Rooz Online argued why Iran's new "Council on Foreign Relations" is unlikely help resolve Iran's foreign policy problems.
• RIA Novosti reported that Russia's defense minister denied reports that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp missile specialists were trained at an aerospace university in southern Russia.

Tags: iran, news, iraq, nuclear, military,

Spelling Zionism in Tehran

Reza Bayegan, American Jewish Committee:

Complete content of 'Antisemitism "Made in Iran" The International Dimensions of Al Quds Day', in which Reza Bayegan's article appeared: in PDF format

In the late 1990s, walking one day in a poor district of southern Tehran, I noticed a slogan on a tumbledown wall in Persian script: "Marg bar Zionism” or "Death to Zionism." There is of course nothing unusual in seeing such a slogan on the wall of the capital of the Islamic Republic. What attracted my attention however was that the word Zionism was misspelled. The inescapable irony here is that anti-Israeli sentiments in Iran go hand in hand with poor education and underdevelopment.

The animosity of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic revolution, towards Israel was part and parcel of his hatred of what the Pahlavi dynasty stood for, that is modernization and advancement. Initially he did not oppose the democratic shortcomings of the political system under Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, but did attack the Shah's plans of equal opportunity for women, land reform and also Iran's close relationship with Israel, a country he used to refer to as "a cancerous tumor." By declaring the last Friday of Ramadan as "Al Quds Day," he also aimed to stifle unique Iranian nationalistic values and bring Iranians—who had no common aspirations with Arabs—under the broad umbrella of the Islamic "Omah" or nation. Proud of their rich culture and language, for the past 1,400 years Iranians have vigorously resisted assimilation into the larger Arab-Islamic community. READ MORE

Located in a turbulent region and threatened by the encroachment of hostile cultures, both Iran and Israel have many areas of common interest. For historical, geographic and political reasons, Iran's most natural ally in the whole Middle East is the state of Israel. Beyond Israel, Iran holds the world's oldest Jewish community. Even after the mass migration of Jews from Iran after the Islamic Revolution, Iran is still home to the largest Jewish population in any Islamic country. Iranian Jews who have migrated to Israel have prospered and hold key positions in the government. Moshe Katsav, the President of Israel, was born in the Iranian city of Yazd, and Shaul Mofaz, Israel's Minister of Defense, was born in Tehran. One proof of the irrepressible strength and deep roots of the Jews within Iranian society is that the chairman of Iran's Jewish Council, Haroun Yashayaei—albeit under extreme political pressure—feels confident enough to take to task president Mahmud Ahmadinejad for saying the Holocaust was a myth, and calls him ignorant and politically prejudiced.16

Yet in spite of all these strong ties and affinities between the two nations, the Israeli government and Iranian opposition so far have not been able to form a fruitful alliance. One important factor contributing to this failure is a lingering hostility towards Israel harbored by some backward forces within the Iranian opposition.

Many members of the Mujahideen-e-Khalq Organization (MKO), who conducted a violent fight against the Shah in the years leading to the Islamic Revolution and now are bitterly opposed to the rulers of the Islamic Republic, were trained in Libya and Lebanon and were brothers in arms with the PLO and other anti-Israel terrorist organizations. Their ideology, an amalgamation of fanatical Islam and Marxism—regardless of tactical shifts and strategic alliances that they are capable of making from time to time—is inimical to Israel and the democratic values of modern Western civilization.17 The Mujahideen's classmates in terrorist training camps of the PLO and PFLP were the Marxist members of Iranian People's Fedayeen Guerrillas. Up to this day they pride themselves in having had the opportunity to fight the "Zionist enemy"alongside their Palestinian brothers.18

An opposition to the monopoly of the hardliners has emerged in the past decade from within the Iranian ruling establishment in the form of the reform movement. The spiritual leader of this movement is Mohammad Khatami, the former president. This political force that at one point seemed quite promising turned out to be a flash in the pan. In the June 2005 pseudo-democratic presidential election, people voted for Ahmadinejad not because they knew him or trusted him, but because they were totally disgusted with the hypocrisy and incompetence of Khatami and his political descendents. The attitude of the reformers towards Israel is not very different from that of the hardliners.

In a recent interview reprinted by Kayhan London (23 February), Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri, Iran's most prominent dissident cleric and a darling to many reformers, sharply criticized the Islamic Republic and Mahmud Ahmadinejad on the regime's human rights record and suppression of freedom of speech, but went on to say that he agrees with Ahmadinejad's stance on the Holocaust. "I have expressed these viewpoints myself many years ago. Even if we assume that the Nazis slaughtered the Jews, why should Palestinians pay the price? The state of Israel was created by brute force and is illegitimate." Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the so-called moderate former president, has expressed similar views. What is obvious is that the future of Iranian politics does notbbelong to the so-called reformist movement. Reformists lack the credibility to galvanize public opinion for major democratic change or offer any cogent plan for a modern pluralistic society.

Conversely, many enlightened members of the Iranian opposition, whose attitude represents the aspirations of the modern, forward-looking portion of the Iranian population, show no hesitation in categorically condemning the clerical regime's antisemitic stance. Fighting to reclaim their homeland as a country capable of meeting the challenges of the 21st century, they are well aware of the great potential for future cooperation with Israel as the most progressive and democratic country in the region.

In preparation to this article, I managed to ask Dariush Homayoun—the veteran journalist and politician who plays a key role in the most influential Iranian party in exile, The Constitutional Party of Iran19 — about Ahmadinejad's wild declarations on wiping out the state of Israel. He responded by saying:

Once another mad demagogue declared his ‚final solution' and got on with most of his plan. This shows that the world should not shrug off IRI's president as just propaganda for receptive Arab masses. He and his regime would wipe out Israel if they could. It also should make the world more determined to prevent the Islamic Regime from acquiring atomic weapons. Ahmadinejad, by denying the Holocaust, is preparing the ground for something of his own. The Iranian people, as the longest standing friends of Israel, are outraged by such criminal statements.

In an article called "Revealing Errors,"20 Abbas Milani, the Iranian scholar and director of the Iranian Studies Program at Stanford University, provides ample evidence to support his argument that throughout history Iranians spared no efforts to protect the Jews and particularly assisted them in fleeing from Nazi persecution. Strongly condemning antisemitic statements made by Mahmud Ahmadinejad, Mr. Milani concludes his article by saying that although the nation has been taken hostage by a cruel dictatorship, Iranians should not be made responsible for the conduct of their hostage takers.

In an article published in Kayhan London (23 February 2006), Abdolkarim Lahidji, an Iranian human rights lawyer who runs the Paris-based Iranian League for Human Rights,21 refers to the Islamic regime's antisemitism as part of the hate campaign of the clerical regime against everyone and everything that does not fit within its narrow-minded ideology and world view.

One of the strong voices amongst the Iranian opposition speaking for modernity, democracy and universal values of human rights is that of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah of Iran.22 He advocates a total separation of religion and government and a political system that considers no one as a second-class citizen. In an interview with Fox News in January 2006, Reza Pahlavi referred to Ahmadinejad's comments as "disgraceful" and "abhorrent" to the vast majority of the Iranian people. It is quite significant that in the same interview Reza Pahlavi goes on to say that "what Iranians desire is nothing less than modernity, freedom and economic opportunity."23

An Iran that is economically prosperous and politically democratic would no longer be a natural breeding ground for fascism and fanaticism. Through a campaign of hate-mongering and xenophobia, the regime intends to deflect attention from its own decadence and incompetence. The majority of Iranians however are intelligent enough not to swallow what the state–controlled media is telling them, and in spite of many restrictions, turn to the Internet and to the Farsi service of Radio Israel and other international media for reliable information.

Like the rest of the world, Iran is not immune to the disease of antisemitism. But today antisemitism as well as anti-Americanism, are state policy on the part of the clerical government. Falsification, fear and fanaticism are essential to the survival of the Islamic Republic. To bring freedom to Iran, one needs to make a greater effort to reach the ears and intellect of its citizens and prepare them for the final moment when they can cast aside the manacles of backwardness and tyranny. On that day of enlightenment, Zionism will not be a misspelled ugly word on a tumbledown wall in a depressed district in Tehran, but understood in all its dimensions by a prosperous nation that begrudges a prosperous homeland for no other nation and generously embraces a pluralistic and peaceful world.

16 BBC News, Feb. 11, 2006, Iran Jews express Holocaust shock:
news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4705246.stm
17 http://www.mojahedin.org/ The MEK - also known as People´s Modjaheddin -
rightfully is on the US and EU list of terrorist organizations.
18 www.fadai.org/ and www.geocities.com/~fedaian/
19 www.irancpisd.com/
20 www.iranian.com/AbbasMilani/2006/February/Black/index.html
21 www.ldh-france.org/
22 www.rezapahlavi.org/
23 www.rezapahlavi.org/audiovideo/fox10706.html

It's the Terrorism, Stupid

Michael Ledeen, National Review Online:

This in from al-Reuters: Iraqi and U.S. troops battled Shi’ite militiamen in a village northeast of Baghdad on Thursday...Iraqi security officials said IRANIAN FIGHTERS HAD BEEN CAPTURED IN THE FIGHTING (emphasis added)...The U.S. military had no immediate comment.

In recent days there have been several stories further documenting the Iranian role in the terror war in Iraq, especially in the south, where Tehran has been working assiduously for several years to create a regional Islamic republic. So the al-Reuters report should not be a surprise.

But it gives us the opportunity to reflect on three serious questions, none of which has been sufficiently integrated into our national debate on the war: READ MORE

• Who’s an Iraqi?
• Who’s a Shiite?
• What’s the Iranian threat, anyway?

And then a short riff on the incredible silence of the White House on life and death in Iraq.

Who’s an Iraqi?

Al-Reuters speaks of “Iranian fighters” mixed in with “Shi’ite militiamen.” But lots of Shiite militiamen entered Iraq from Iran around the time of Operation Iraqi Freedom, and many of those had originally fled Iraq in the early 1980s to join Iranian forces in the war against Saddam. We’re talking big numbers here. Millions of Iraqi Shiites went to Iran, and tens of thousands of them (and, later, their children) were trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. They are ideal for infiltration--into Shiite or Sunni militias--since they speak Arabic with an Iraqi accent.

I have been saying for years now that those who have been insisting that the “insurrection” is primarily an internal, Iraqi phenomenon, have missed this basic analytical conundrum: are those people Iraqis or Iranians? Should we call them “Iranian agents” (or as al-Reuters prefers, “Iranian fighters”)? Or should we call them Iraqis who spent time in Iran? Who are they?

The important thing is that they are working for Iran; their ultimate national allegiance is irrelevant in terms of understanding the nature of the terror war. They respond to the terror masters in Tehran.

What seems to be happening is that the Iraqis are not playing along with the American intelligence game of blaming “Baathists” for most of the terrorism. The Iraqis see Iranians and Iranian agents all over their country, and they don’t like it. They have been joined by British intelligence and military officers, who know who’s killing their men in and around Basra, and have been leaking like crazy to the British press, from the Telegraph to the Guardian. You could publish a substantial pamphlet of press clippings on this theme.

Who’s a Shiite?

The single greatest distortion of reality in the war is that old chestnut about the profound hatred and total incompatibility between Sunnis and Shiites. The truth is that Sunnis and Shiites happily cooperate when it comes to killing Americans, Europeans, Jews, Christians, Suffis, Bahais, and anyone else who can be defined as an infidel and/or crusader. This has been going on for a very long time. In the early Seventies, for example, the (Shiite) Revolutionary Guards were trained in Lebanon by the (Sunni) Fatah of Yasser Arafat.

Obsessed by this great distortion, our analysts have lost sight of the profound internal war under way within Shiite Islam, the two contending forces being the Najaf (Iraqi, traditional) and the Qom (Iranian, heretical, theocratic) versions. Tehran fears ideological enemies inspired either by democracy or by Ayatollah Sistani’s (Najaf) view of the world, which is that civil society should be governed by politicians, not mullahs.

Thus it is a mistake to assume--as it is so often--that Shiites in Iraq are automatically pro-Iranian. No matter how many times smart people such as Reuel Gerecht detail the intra-Shiite civil war, it just goes in one ear and out the other of the intelligence community and the policymakers.

What's the Iranian Threat?

The Iranian threat is both religious and murderous. Yes, they want to spread their doctrine, they do indeed want to create (Qom-version) Islamic republics all over the world, but that can come later. The main mission is to drive us out of the Middle East, above all from their eastern (Afghanistan) and western (Iraq) borders. The prime instrument for this mission is terrorism, and they do not care at all about the ethos of the terrorists. Indeed, as I reported some months back, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei told his closest advisers late last year that Iran now controlled all the major terror groups, religious or Marxist, Sunni or Shiite.

We are wrongly focused on the Iranian nuclear threat, which is obviously worth worrying about, but this excessively narrow focus has distracted us from the main threat, which is terrorism. The mullahs are not going to nuke our fighters in Iraq; they are going to kill as many as they can on the ground with IEDs, suicide terrorists, and assassins. And we have given them a free hand in this murderous campaign instead of unleashing political war against them in their own country. We hear lots of talk from the president and the secretary of state, but there is no sign of the sort of aggressive support we should be giving to the forces of freedom inside Iran.

The Riff

Al-Reuters blandly notes that there is as yet no comment from the American military about the arrests of the “Iranian fighters.” Why is that? It reminds me of the eloquent silence from the Intelligence Community about the discovery of hundreds of WMDs in Iraq, which is an ongoing process. In both cases there is a policy explanation for the silence: confirmation of such facts would demand that we change the context of our policy debate. There are indeed WMDs, and there are likely many others. The intelligence services of half the world were NOT wrong in their assessment of Saddam, and you cannot diss the American enterprise by chanting “Bush lied.” And, most importantly--to finish with a flourish from al-Reuters--we are involved in a regional war that cannot be won by playing defense in Iraq alone.

Faster, please.

Michael Ledeen, an NRO contributing editor, is most recently the author of The War Against the Terror Masters. He is resident scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute.