Saturday, December 03, 2005

Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [11/27-12/03] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance)

Ahmadinejad.
  • The Guardian UK reported on how Ahmadinejad's radicalism is now hurting even his allies.
  • Reuters reported that Iranian President Ahmadinejad is in no hurry to nominate a fourth candidate for oil minister.
  • Iran Focus reported that the former Supreme Commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezai, has recently switched his allegiance from Rafsanjani to the new hard-line Iran president.
  • DefenceNews.com reported that the deputy chief of Iran’s hardline Revolutionary Guards has been appointed as deputy interior minister for security and police.
  • Meysam Tavab, Rooz Online reported that President Ahmadinejad has ordered a review of all the appointments in government agencies that took place during the last 8 years. The president’s directive calls for more rigorous ideological screening of applicants to government positions.
  • Meysam Tavab, Rooz Online reported that one of the first acts of Farhad Rahbar, responsible for drawing up plans and budgets for the country was to categorize a large number of documents formerly available to the public as ‘Confidential.”
  • Iran Focus reported that the Supreme Commander of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) reaffirmed his force’s “solid support” for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
  • Newsweek reported that Ahmadinejad has lost the full faith of Iran's Supreme Leader.
  • Khaleej Times Online reported that Ahmadinejad has shunned a VIP jet plane bought by his predecessor.
  • IranMania reported that Ahmadinejad is expected early next week to make another attempt at confirming a candidate for oil minister. Four name have been cited as likely candidates.
Ahmadinejad's Worldview.
  • The Financial Times reported that a leading website in Iran has published a transcript and video recording of President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad claiming to have felt “a light” while addressing world leaders at the United Nations in New York.
  • Compass Direct reported that Ahmadinejad recently vowed: I will stop Christianity in this country.”
  • Golnaz Esfandiari, Radio Free Europe reported that the Iranian media have been reporting that in an official meeting Ahmadinejad said that the Hidden Imam will appear in two years.
  • Lindsey Hilsum, Channel 4 reported that Ahamdinejad is talking of reorienting the country's policies to be ready for judgement day, the equivalent of Tony Blair telling Britons to prepare for Christ's second coming.
Iran's Nuclear Program.
  • Reuters reported that Britain, France and Germany agreed on Sunday to hold talks to see whether there were grounds for resuming formal negotiations.
  • Spiegel provides more details on attempts by Tehran to lend Pyongyang a helping hand against western pressure for North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program.
  • The Wall Street Journal asked how can we trust the Russians to resolve the Iranian crisis over its nuclear program given its own history.
  • Hemscott reported that French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin said an agreement with Iran on its nuclear plans is possible if the country accepts European proposals.
  • The Wshington Times in an editorial reported that Iranian officials have been gloating over what appears to be the latest retreat by the European Union 3 to seek further talks with the Iranians.
  • Expatica reported that Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Iran not to back away from cooperation with the U.N. nuclear supervisory body, the International Atomic Energy Agency.
  • Dow Jones Newswires reported that Ahmadinejad reiterated Wednesday that Iran would never give up its nuclear program, adding: Our enemies have to know that the Iranian people will develop their nuclear technology to the limit.
  • Reuters reported that Germany, France and Britain will resume nuclear talks with Iran only if Tehran signals it truly wants to dispel international fears about its atomic program.
  • Arutz Sheva, IsraelNN.com reported that Gen. Ze’evi Farkash, the head of Israeli intelligence said: The Iranian nuclear arms race has reached a point of no return.
  • The Jerusalem Post asked whether Israel can continue to sit silently on the sidelines, pretending that the international community is successfully blocking the Iranian bomb.
  • Spacewar reported that British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said Tuesday it was an "incontrovertible" fact that Iran was developing long-range missiles.
  • Rooz Online published reported that the Iranian press has been instructed not to publish news about the country nuclear dossier. They did so anyway.
  • Iran Press News reported that Alireza Akbari, Director of the Establishment of Advancement of Resolution, said of Russia's nuclear proposal: Russia’s proposal is beneficial neither in the short term nor the long term.
  • Ha'aretz reported that for the EU, the ball is now in Iran's court.
  • The Jerusalem Post reported that Israeli Military Intelligence Chief Aharon Ze'evi Farkash said: it is clear that Iran has passed the point of no return ... unless Iran encounters a major interference, it will have a functioning nuclear arsenal within one or two years.
  • Richard Bernstein, The New York Times argued that Mao's 'Fight Talk' strategy is a winning one for Iran.
  • DEBKAfile reported on the abrupt firing of Alexander Rumyantsev as head of the Russian Agency for Atomic Energy, trusted by the US and Israeli governments.
  • CBS 2 Chicago reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said that he is confident all diplomatic efforts will be exhausted before any military action might be taken against the Iranian nuclear program.
  • Reuters reported that Russia plans to sell more than $1 billion worth of tactical surface-to-air missiles and other defence hardware to Iran.
  • PakTribune reported that El Baradei said a meeting with A Q Khan is vital to solve Iran nuclear puzzle.
  • Stratfor weighed in on an apparent shift in Israel's Iran policy.
  • Dow Jones Newswires reported that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier traveled to Moscow Saturday for talks with Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin on topics including Iran's disputed nuclear program.
  • Caroline Glick, The Jerusalem Post reported the cost of the international communities incompetence on the Iran issue. She cited this blog.
  • Ron Kampeas, JTA News reported that with time short on Iran nukes, AIPAC criticized the Bush approach.
  • The Associated Press reported that Iran's hard-line constitutional watchdog approved a bill Saturday blocking international inspections of atomic facilities if the nation is referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions.
  • Bangkok Post reported that Iran said it sees no need to give any explanations over its $1-billion-dollar missile deal with Russia.
  • The New York Times reported that the US and EU3 a seeking the declaration on Iran from the five major nuclear weapons powers.
Iranian Dissidents.
  • Iran Press News reported that the regime’s high tribunal affirmed the sentences of 3 activists.
  • Iran Press News published a photo of a political prisoner chained to his hospital bed.
  • Bill Samii and Fatemeh Aman, Radio Free Europe reported on how Iran is breaking the will of political prisoners.
  • Gooya news reported that the wife of Akbar Ganji said: I think something might have happened that they have cancelled our visiting with Ganji !
  • The Foreign Press Association reported that Akbar Ganji was a recipient of the "Dialogue of Cultures" Award.
  • Rooz Online reported on yet another unlawful imprisonment.
The Unrest Inside of Iran.
  • Iran Press News reported that disabled war veterans protested in front of Ahmadinejad’s office.
  • Iran Press News reported that Tehran University students protested and threw out the new Mullah president of the university installed by Ahmadinejad. Photos.
  • Iran Press News published a statement regarding the installment of a Mullah to presidency of Tehran University.
  • Rooz Online reported that the cleric Zahedi, recently appointed as Chancellor of Tehran University, quickly resigned after massive student demonstrations.
  • Iran Press News reported on the regime’s laughable description of Tehran University demonstrations.
  • Iran Focus reported that there were more than 420 recorded political protests in Iran over the past month.
  • Iran Press News reported that protesting workers blocked the Rasht-Bandar’eh Anzali main road.
Human Rights/Freedom of the press inside of Iran.
  • Iran Press News reported on the worsening conditions for women including: a cash penalty for improper veiling.
  • Lillian Swift, The Telegraph UK reported on Iran's War on Weblogs citing this blog is blocked by the Iranian regime.
  • Agence France Presse reported that an Iranian convicted of armed robbery has had his left foot amputated in a prison.
  • Iran Press News reported on the prosecution of four publishers and editors-in-chief.
  • Iran Press News reported that the deputy of Iran's family court said: Women are subjugated to legal violence.
Iran's troublemaking.
  • The Telegraph UK reported that Iran is secretly training Chechen rebels in sophisticated terror techniques to enable them to carry out more effective attacks against Russian forces.
The Economy.
  • Iran Press News reported that Iran has imported 3 times its export of Gas.
  • MehrNews reported that the Chairman of the Majlis Energy Commission said that preparatory measures have been taken to sell oil in euros instead of dollar, adding: the United States would soon realize that it is not the one who can always inflict economic damages.
Iran's Military.
  • DEBKAfile reported that Iranian Military instructors have slipped into Lebanon with a new anti tank missile.
  • CNN.com reported that Iran's space agency is trying to snap up technology from abroad as fast as possible.
  • Iran Focus reported that the Commandant of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) declared that Iran was exporting its Islamic revolution which would inevitably bring about the downfall of the United States in the Middle East.
  • Eli Lake, New York Sun reported that Iranian Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi told reporters that his side is winning in Iraq.
  • Iran Focus reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader has ordered a major reshuffle of the top brass of the armed forces in anticipation of a very tough year ahead.
Iran and the International community.
  • Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that Khatami Arrived in Spain to attend UN meeting on Civilizations.
  • Iran Focus reported that Rafsanjani said the United States was faced with the problem of Islamic ideology in Iraq.
  • Arab Times reported on a conference on Nato and the Greater Middle East wrapped up deliberations here on Sunday.
  • Iran Focus reported that with the parliamentary elections in Iraq less than three weeks away, several Shiite groups have started to claim that the revered twelfth Imam in Shiite Islam has guided Iraqis to vote for their candidate.
  • Iran Press News reported on the regime's anxiety over the proximity of the Persian Gulf countries with NATO.
  • MSNBC reported that Israel carried out a successful test of its missile-interceptor system, an Arrow II missile downed an incoming rocket designed to simulate an Iranian Shahab-3.
  • Amy K. Rosenthal, The Weekly Standard argued that Italy is getting tough on Iran.
  • IranMania reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to visit Saudi Arabia early December.
  • Press Trust of India reported that the United States has taken a low profile position on the reported sale of Russian missiles to Iran.
Can You Believe This?
  • Adnkronos International reported that an Iranian parliamentarian, a member of Iran's Zoroastrian religious minority has been summoned to appear before the country's Revolutionary Tribunal for protesting remarks that Non-Muslims "cannot be called human beings but are animals" made by a close aide to Iran's Supreme Leader.
  • The New York Times reviewed Richard A. Clarke's new novel, "The Scorpion's Gate" which portrays a fictional attempt to wage war on Iran by the US.
  • Iran Focus reported that senior Iranian Ayatollah Jannati recently said that Iran owed its “victory” in the international stand-off over its suspected nuclear weapons program to its para-military Bassij.
  • Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that an Iranian morning daily urged Muslim states to set up an Iran-style Basij (volunteer) force.
Inside Iran.
  • Nazila Fathi, The New York Times reported on the rush to excavate ancient Iranian Sites before they are flooded by a new dam.
  • CNN News reported that at least five people were killed and five villages largely destroyed when a strong earthquake struck southern Iran.
Iranian Bloggers.
  • Shahram Kholdi, ScanIranic argued that Roya Hakakian, the Iranian-American writer and documentary film-maker, who just published in the Washington Post a novel approach to the culture of hate-mongering by the Islamic regime of Iran's propaganda machine.
  • ET, View from Iran provides a peek into a conversation in a Tehran Taxi.
US Policy on Iran.
  • Agence France-Presse reported that the US State Department has sought to play down plans for the highest-level contact with Iran in decades.
  • Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting argued that the new Iran-US talks on Iraq in Iran's national interest.
  • The Financial Times reported Iran’s new president, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, is an irresponsible radical who is digging a hole for himself, according to Nicholas Burns, the State Department’s number three official.
  • United Press International reported that U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns explained the U.S. policy toward Iran.
US/Iran Talks on Iraq?
  • U.S. Department of State published excerpts of Condoleezza Rice statements on the new direct US/Iran talks scheduled on Iran and her thoughts on sanctions in Iran.
  • Statfor provided their interpretation of the Khalilzad initiative with the Iranians.
  • Farhad Mahdavi, Rooz Online reported on the announcement of Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid-Reza Asefi that talks with the US are on Iran’s agenda.
US/Iran Talks on Iraq?
  • Times of Oman reported that President George W. Bush has asked US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad to reach out to Iran for assistance in subduing the unrest in Iraq.
  • The Financial Times reported that Nicholas Burns, the State Department’s number three official appears to see the new battle-lines being drawn in Iran as between the people and government, rather than rather than the regime and the reformists.
  • Aljazeera reported that Nicholas Burns said: It might be time to consider a different approach towards the new, more radical, more intolerant Iranian regime.
  • Philip Sherwell, The Telegraph UK reported that in response to President George W Bush authorization for his ambassador in Baghdad to talk to Iranian officials, Michael Ledeen said: The Islamic republic will never do anything to help us, our soldiers, or our allies. The Iranians ... see themselves as our gravediggers.
Must Read reports.
  • Tulin Daloglu, The Washington Times provided some suggestions to ensure success while dealing with Iran.
  • Iran va Jahan published "A Word with the Nation, A Warning to the Regime." A statement dated November 2005 signed by 674 personalities including former Members of the Iranian Majles (parliament); well know academics, political and cultural personalities as well as student activists.
  • Gerald M. Steinberg, Jerusalem Issue Brief examined: Can Diplomacy Still Prevent Iran from Going Nuclear?
  • MehrNews reported that the Chairman of the Majlis Energy Commission said that preparatory measures have been taken to sell oil in euros instead of dollar, adding: the United States would soon realize that it is not the one who can always inflict economic damages.
The Experts.
  • Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com provides an excellent review of what Iranian leaders have been saying publicly about their nuclear program. A must read.
  • Michael Ledeen, The National Review warned the Bush administration that its current approach towards Iran threatens to dismantle the accomplishments of the past 4 years and leave the US more vulnerable.
  • Michael Rubin, Rivista di Intelligence published a report on: how to deal with kidnappings in Iraq.
  • Michael Ledeen, The New York Sun argued that Bush's Plan for Victory is a Sucker's Game.
  • American Enterprise Institute published the ninth chapter of Gaffney's "War Footing: 10 Steps America Must Take in the War for the Free World." A must read.
  • Amir Taheri, The New York Post reported that having tried to undermine the Iraqi attempt at building a democracy, the Arab League is sending signals that it may be changing the foredoomed policy it has pursued for almost three years.
Photos, cartoons and videos.
  • Cox & Forkum published another of their cartoons: As Plain As...
  • Amy Kellogg, FOX News released part six of her reports from inside Iran: Women Worried About Freedoms. Video also available.
  • Amy Kellogg, FOX News released part seven of her reports from inside Iran: The Ties That Bind Iran, Iraq. Video also available.
  • Amy Kellogg, FOX News released her final report from inside Iran: Saddam's Iranian Victims. Video also available.
  • Gooya News published many photos of a demonstration in Tehran's Polytechnic.
  • Slate published a cartoon: The Perils of Withdrawal.
  • Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Mullahs in Space.
And finally, The Quote of the Week.
Compass Direct reported that Ahmadinejad recently vowed:

I will stop Christianity in this country.”

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 12.4.2005:

Iran OKs Bill to Block Nuclear Inspections

Nasser Karimi, The Associated Press:
Iran's hard-line constitutional watchdog approved a bill Saturday blocking international inspections of atomic facilities if the nation is referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions, state-run television reported. The ratification by the Guardian Council means the bill - overwhelmingly approved by parliament last month - now needs just a presidential signature to become law. It was not clear when that would take place. READ MORE
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.
  • MehrNews reported that the Chairman of the Majlis Energy Commission said that preparatory measures have been taken to sell oil in euros instead of dollar, adding: the United States would soon realize that it is not the one who can always inflict economic damages.
  • Bangkok Post reported that Iran said it sees no need to give any explanations over its $1-billion-dollar missile deal with Russia.
  • IranMania reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to visit Saudi Arabia early December.
  • Press Trust of India reported that the United States has taken a low profile position on the reported sale of Russian missiles to Iran.
  • Iran Focus reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader has ordered a major reshuffle of the top brass of the armed forces in anticipation of a very tough year ahead.
  • Newsweek reported that Ahmadinejad has lost the full faith of Iran's Supreme Leader.
  • Khaleej Times Online reported that Ahmadinejad has shunned a VIP jet plane bought by his predecessor.
  • Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting reported that an Iranian morning daily urged Muslim states to set up an Iran-style Basij (volunteer) force.
  • The New York Times reported that the US and EU3 a seeking the declaration on Iran from the five major nuclear weapons powers.
  • IranMania reported that Ahmadinejad is expected early next week to make another attempt at confirming a candidate for oil minister. Four name have been cited as likely candidates.
  • Philip Sherwell, The Telegraph UK reported that in response to President George W Bush authorization for his ambassador in Baghdad to talk to Iranian officials, Michael Ledeen said: The Islamic republic will never do anything to help us, our soldiers, or our allies. The Iranians ... see themselves as our gravediggers.
  • Lindsey Hilsum, Channel 4 reported that Ahamdinejad is talking of reorienting the country's policies to be ready for judgement day, the equivalent of Tony Blair telling Britons to prepare for Christ's second coming.
  • And finally, Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Mullahs in Space.

Preparatory measures taken to sell oil in euros

MehrNews:
The Chairman of the Majlis Energy Commission, Kamal Daneshyar said here, on Friday, that preparatory measures have been taken to sell oil in euros instead of dollar, adding that such a measure is quite positive and should be taken as soon as possible.

Speaking to the Persian service of Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA), he went on to say that Iran should at the first phase sell its oil in both Dollar and Euro, and then gradually move toward Euro as the mere source.

As for the probable consequences of such a decision, Daneshyar said that when such a measure is taken, the United States would soon realize that it is not the one who can always inflict economic damages on the Islamic Republic and that Iran can also get even with it.

Daneshyar who also represents Mahshahr in the Majlis noted that prior to this the way was not paved for undertaking such a program, adding that fortunately the present government possesses the necessary management bravery to prepare the ground for taking such a measure.

Bush permits talks with Iran over border security crisis

Philip Sherwell, The Telegraph UK:
President George W Bush has authorised his ambassador in Baghdad to talk to Iranian officials about the security crisis in Iraq in a move which suggests that America is adopting a less confrontational approach towards its old enemy.

Although America has not had diplomatic relations with the clerical regime since the United States embassy in Teheran was stormed in 1979, Zalmany Khalilzad has been given permission to talk to his Iranian counterparts about the Iraqi insurgency and border security.

Iran is widely blamed for destabilising Iraq by backing fellow Shia armed factions and allowing weapons and fighters to cross its border. Britain believes that bombs being used to kill British soldiers are made in Iran.

Iraq factfile


The American initiative, a further indication that the secretary of state Condoleezza Rice's more moderate diplomacy has replaced the hardline foreign policy of Mr Bush's first term, follows another recent shift of tactics towards Iran.

For the first time, America is offering active support to European and Russian officials in their efforts to end the deadlock with Iran over its nuclear programme, after previously adopting a hands-off approach - to the alarm of prominent neo-conservatives who back regime change in Iran.

They believe that given Iran's track record of duplicity in international negotiations, talks will be futile and interpreted as a sign of American weakness.

Their fears will have been bolstered by the response in Iran. Sadegh Zibakalam, a pro-regime political analyst, said that the move reflected the Bush administration's problems and showed that America was unable to establish security and stability in Iraq.

Iran factfile


"It's hard to imagine what President Bush expects to gain from talks with the Iranians," said Michael Ledeen, an Iran expert at the American Enterprise Institute, a leading conservative think-tank.

"The Islamic republic will never do anything to help us, our soldiers, or our allies. The Iranians themselves have no doubt of their role in the world: they see themselves as our gravediggers." READ MORE

• A Briton of Iraqi origin sent by Muslim and anti-war groups to help to negotiate the release of four peace activists taken hostage in Baghdad began yesterday to try to make contact with the kidnappers.

Anas Altikriti was dispatched as the group holding Norman Kember, 74, of London, two Canadians and an American threatened to execute them by Thursday.

Iran snubs IAEA, refuses to discuss missile deal

Bangkok Post:
Iran's senate-like Guardian Council on Saturday confirmed a parliamentary bill calling for the government's conditional suspension of nuclear cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran also said yesterday it sees no need to give any explanations over its $1-billion-dollar missile deal with Russia, state news agency IRNA reported. Ali Larijani, secretary of the National Security Council, said Iran purchased 29 Tor-M1 missiles and other military hardware. READ MORE

Moscow said the missiles were only for defensive purposes. The Tor is classified as a defensive system that can intercept cruise missiles and guided bombs and be used for protecting the nuclear power plant in south Iran, which is a joint project with Russia.

The Iranian parliament approved last month a bill urging the government to conditionally suspend all voluntary obligations, including the IAEA additional protocol and hence limit or even stop IAEA inspection of Iranian nuclear sites if the Iran case was referred to the United Nations Security Council.

The Guardian Council, which checks parliamentary bills for their compatibility with Islamic laws and the constitution, reconfirmed the bill and made it a law.

The bill is unclear whether Iran would also start the uranium enrichment process if the Security Council referral became serious.

The new law is considered by observers to be as merely a warning and not necessarily binding if future developments force the Iranian government to consider other alternatives.

The main question at the current phase is whether nuclear negotiations between Iran and the European Union trio of Britain, France and Germany would be resumed.

Another major issue is whether Iran would accept a plan to convert its uranium in Iran, but enrich it in Russia. Enrichment on Russian soil could bring a breakthrough in the stalemate and is also backed by the E.U. and the United States.

Iran's Ahmadinejad's Saudi visit on Dec. 7

IranMania:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to visit Saudi Arabia early December, as his first visit to a Persian Gulf country. READ MORE

The UAE-based daily Al-Khaleej announced that the Iranian president will attend the Organization of Islamic Conference's meeting scheduled for December 7-8 in Mecca.

Secretary of State Expediency Council, Mohsen Rezaie, was quoted as saying that Ahmadinejad will meet high-ranking Saudi officials, including King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, to discuss latest developments in bilateral relations as well as regional issues, especially the current situation in Iraq and Occupied Palestine.

US downplays Russia-Iran missile deal

Press Trust of India:
The United States has taken a low profile position on the reported sale of Russian missiles to Iran saying that it has only seen reports to this effect and was evaluating them.

Washington's lack of instant criticism or comment against Moscow has to be seen against the backdrop of the latter's active role vis-a-vis Iran in the realm of its nuclear activities.


"A couple of things. One, we've seen the news reports. I think there were reports that Iran has signed a deal to buy TOR M1 missiles - Russian tactical surface-to-air missile systems. We are at this point evaluating those reports. At this point, I couldn't confirm the validity of those reports" the state department spokesman Sean McCormack said yesterday in a brief response to a query. READ MORE

The spokesman was asked if the United States would try and stop the deal and what kind of leverage Washington had.

"Well, you're presupposing that there is a deal and what I just said was we're working to confirm that these reports are valid", McCormack said.

A Russian newspaper Vedomosti had reported, quoting an unidentified manager at a military-industrial enterprise as saying that Russia would provide Iran with 29 TOR missile systems.

However, the state arms export agency, Rosoboronexport, said it had no information on the reported deal.

Iran OKs Bill to Block Nuclear Inspections

Nasser Karimi, The Associated Press:
Iran's hard-line constitutional watchdog approved a bill Saturday blocking international inspections of atomic facilities if the nation is referred to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions, state-run television reported. The ratification by the Guardian Council means the bill - overwhelmingly approved by parliament last month - now needs just a presidential signature to become law. It was not clear when that would take place. READ MORE

The bill will strengthen the government's hand in resisting international pressure to permanently abandon uranium enrichment, a process that can produce fuel for either nuclear reactors or atomic bombs.

Iran has been under intense pressure to curb its nuclear program, which the United States claims is part of an effort to produce weapons. Iran says its program is aimed at generating electricity.

While Iran has frozen its enrichment program, it restarted uranium conversion - a step toward enrichment - in August. The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned Iran that its nuclear program could be referred to the Security Council, which has the power to impose sanctions for violations of a nuclear arms control treaty.

"If Iran's nuclear file is referred or reported to the U.N. Security Council, the government will be required to cancel all voluntary measures," the bill says, meaning Iran would stop allowing in-depth inspections by the IAEA.

Iran has been allowing short-notice inspections of those facilities under a protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

The United States and European Union want Iran to permanently halt uranium enrichment. But Tehran says the nonproliferation treaty allows it to pursue a nuclear program for peaceful purposes, and it maintains it will never give up the right to enrich uranium to produce nuclear fuel.

In May, the Guardian Council ratified a bill compelling the government to continue the nuclear program, including uranium enrichment activities. The law set no timetable, however, allowing the government room to maneuver during negotiations with the European Union.

Those talks with Britain, France and Germany broke off in August after Tehran restarted uranium conversion. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Wednesday that talks would resume within the next two weeks.

Iran, on Defiant Course, Tunes Up Military

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a major reshuffle of the top brass of the armed forces as part of a larger plan to enhance the military’s control over the government, Iran Focus has learnt.

In recent weeks, hundreds of senior officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have been seconded to government ministries and state institutions to “prop up” the country’s civil administration for what many within the clerical government believe will be a very tough year ahead for the Islamic Republic of Iran. READ MORE

Iran Focus revealed last week that three in four of the new senior political appointees by hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad come from the Revolutionary Guards, including 11 of his ministers and several new governors.

As part of the new changes, Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi will soon leave his command of the para-military Bassij and move to the more senior position of Chairman of the IRGC’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to informed sources in Tehran.

Hejazi is a close ally of President Ahmadinejad, who has himself been a top commander in the IRGC.

The decision to give Hejazi the top job comes after IRGC Deputy Commandant Brigadier General Mohammad-Baqer Zolqadr was appointed as the Deputy Interior Minister. Zolqadr will coordinate the motley internal security organisations of the Islamic fundamentalist state.

Reined in by the Regime

Alan Isenberg and Christopher Dickey, Newsweek International:
Five months after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election as president of Iran, some leading figures in Tehran's "mullahcracy" who backed him as a candidate are desperately trying to rein him in. Last week Iran's Parliament rejected his third nominee for the vital post of Oil minister. And tougher fights loom ahead, as his opponents marshal their forces in the judiciary and the regular Army. Clearly Ahmadinejad has lost the full faith of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, supreme leader of the Islamic republic. The reason: the new president's choice of mentor, Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi.

The man is ultra-fundamentalist with a mystical bent. He is affiliated with the Hojjatieh movement, which is preparing for the return of the 12th imam, who disappeared down a well in the ninth century. The group's teachings undermine the authority of any contemporary "supreme leader," like Khamenei. Thus, in supporting a president who venerates the missing imam above all else and who increasingly holds the loyalty of fundamentalist militants, "Khamenei made a deal with a devil far more powerful than he ever imagined," says Abbas Milani, an Iran expert at Stanford University. Hojjatieh is also said to believe that creating chaos on earth is a virtue, helping to prepare the way for the imam's second coming.

With tensions mounting in Tehran, the Bush administration has steadily toned down its attacks on the Iranian regime. Last week Washington took a back seat while Europe and Russia tried to hammer out a compromise that would stop Iran from making nuclear fuel. With the mullahs now tearing themselves apart, the last thing Washington wants to do is scare them into a new unity.

Paper Urges Muslims to Form Iran-style Basij Force

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:
A morning daily Saturday urged Muslim states to set up an Iran-style Basij (volunteer) force in order to prevent all meddling powers from casting eyes at Muslims' territories. 'Kayhan International' added that the Islamic Iran is ready to share its experiences in that field with other countries.

"If the Islamic world were to mobilize its vast material and manpower resources, then no meddler would ever dare think of casting its covetous eyes at Muslim lands," said the editorial. READ MORE

Therefore, the avowed goal of the liberation of Beit Ul-Moqaddas and the elimination of the cancerous tumors called Israel will become much sooner than expected, it stressed.

Referring to the history of the Basij force establishment in Iran, the daily said that the popular force was created in 1979 by the foresight of the Father of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Khomeini.

Pointing to the Basij heroism during the Iraqi imposed war against Iran (1980-1988), it said Iran's Basijis enacted epics against the armed-to-the-teeth enemy.

It was the same heroism and the awe of the word Basij which have "deterred global arrogance from trying any new military adventure against the territorial integrity of Islamic Iran and its resolve to achieve scientific and technological progress," argued the article.

It stressed that Iran has proudly felt indebted to the Basijis for presenting the Islamic Republic system of Iran as a worthy model of emulation for other Muslim and oppressed countries who were determined "to fight the decadent culture of western liberal democracy." Recalling the recent human chain formed across Iran by nine million Basijis in support of the Islamic Republic's inalienable right to master the nuclear fuel cycle, the daily said it was another sign of Basij vital role to safeguard national security.

The move was yet "another indication of the crucial role played by this mass mobilization force in safeguarding national security and the glorious achievements of the Islamic Revolution," the paper stressed.

It further argued the brilliant breakthroughs made by this highly humanitarian force in whatever field it has stepped in including nuclear and nano technology, "has not only frustrated the poisonous propaganda of the enemies of Islam, but serves as an inspiration to the oppressed people of Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Afghanistan and other lands."

Ahmadinejad: I'll be No VIP Jetsetter

Khaleej Times Online:
Iran’s hardline and austere President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has shunned a VIP jet plane bought by his predecessor, telling his transport minister to either sell the aircraft or let ordinary passengers use it. The Airbus, which reportedly cost 39 million dollars plus an extra 20 million dollars in fittings, was ordered in 2003 by the former reformist government of Mohammad Khatami and delivered to Iran last month.

But according to government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham, “a six-hour flight is not so hard to require such luxuries.”

Ahmadinejad has ordered the transport minister to sell the plane or plan to use it for public commercial purposes,” he was quoted as saying Saturday in Iranian dailies. READ MORE

Ahmadinejad’s shock presidential election win on June 24 was thanks in part to his image as an unpretentious and God-fearing man who would take from the rich and give to the poor.

Unlike previous presidents, Ahmadinejad has also refused to use opulent former royal palaces in leafy northern Tehran and receives dignitaries in the old offices in the smog ridden downtown of the city.

U.S. and Britain Seek Aid on Iran Arms

Steven R. Weisman and David E. Sanger, The New York Times:
In a new effort to pressure Iran to allow strict controls on its nuclear program, Britain and the United States are trying to persuade Russia and China to endorse their conclusion, derived from what officials call new evidence, that Tehran intends to build nuclear weapons, American and European diplomats said.

Until now, the effort to rein in Iran's nuclear program has occurred largely in the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, which has described a pattern of highly suspicious behavior by Iran. But the agency focuses on identifying possible diversions of nuclear material and has little weapons expertise.


The diplomats, who asked not to be identified to avoid any possible disruption of the delicate negotiations, say the new effort has been floated by Britain and endorsed by France and the United States, and seeks the declaration on Iran from the five major nuclear weapons powers that are the permanent members of the Security Council, which has the power to impose penalties.

The statement is the hoped-for result of arms specialists in China, Russia and France examining the evidence on Iran - including thousands of pages found on a laptop computer obtained by the United States last year - and concluding, as the United States and Britain have, that it points at least to an intent to build a weapon.


"If we could get China and Russia to agree that this bears all the hallmarks of a weapons program, it could have an enormous impact on Iran," said one senior European diplomat, because it might signal that if the issue reaches the Security Council, Iran could not count on Beijing or Moscow blocking action.

Russia and China have extensive energy and economic dealings with Iran and have argued that a confrontational approach will simply drive its government to walk away from international obligations on its nuclear program and oust the inspectors who are examining its facilities.

While Russia and China have declared that Iran should not be allowed to have nuclear weapons, they have resisted American efforts to get the nuclear agency to refer Iran to the Security Council for possible penalties. A resolution passed by the agency's member nations in September said the case should be referred, but specified no time frame, and none was established at a subsequent meeting last month.

Running parallel to the effort to declare that Iran is trying to "weaponize" its program, despite its denials, is a diplomatic effort to support a Russian proposal that Iran be allowed to enrich uranium for its nuclear reactors - but only on Russian soil. Russian officials say this would guarantee that the material could not be used secretly for nuclear weapons, because it would be enriched only to "reactor grade."

Many aspects of the Russian proposal remain unclear. An American official said it could involve Iranian investment in a company based in Russia, but with the actual enrichment done elsewhere in the country, with no Iranian participation.

The official said the Russian initiative was "more of an idea than a proposal," and European officials said it was being discussed more as a way of involving Russia in the diplomacy than out of a conviction that Iran would accept it.

Eventually, the United States hopes that Russia will develop its idea, and that Britain, France and Germany will try to get the Iranians to resume talks on it, as part of a strategy to keep the talks going.

But Iran has so far declined to discuss the Russian proposal and has steadily insisted that it cannot surrender its sovereignty in developing enriched uranium for what it says is a peaceful nuclear program.

The British, as part of the effort to persuade Russia and China to join a declaration on Iran, are citing documents turned over to the nuclear agency by Iran apparently showing that it was offered technology to make metallic hemispheres from highly enriched uranium.

Iran maintains that it never acted on the offer, which came from the former Pakistani nuclear chief, Abdul Qadeer Khan. British and American officials say they find that explanation impossible to believe.

Britain, France and Germany have forged an ambitious effort to persuade Iran to abandon nuclear fuel activities that could lead to the making of a bomb, in return for economic and political incentives and also some form of security guarantees. But Iran has refused to give up its right to these activities.

"The most important aspect of our discussions is to broaden the support by countries like Russia, China, India, South Africa and Brazil," said a top European diplomat. "To do that, it's important that they feel all the diplomatic possibilities are exhausted before we step up the pressure."

The impasse with Iran is at a stage where "they are talking about talks," said an American official. That is, European officials say, they are trying to reach out to Iran to discuss informally the possibility of resuming negotiations on an eventual abandonment of its nuclear programs.


On top of these problems, European officials say that Iran's negotiating team is in some disarray, with evidence that the new president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is feuding with Iran's chief negotiator, Ali A. Larijani. READ MORE

Iran's President expected to name new minister

IranMania:
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected early next week to make another attempt at getting a candidate for oil minister through parliament after three others were slammed for lack of experience, reports said.

Iran's Government spokesman Gholamhossein Elham was quoted as saying he hoped deputies in the conservative-controlled Majlis would show "cooperation" this time around, but did not reveal who the new contender was, AFP reported.


Four names have been cited as possible nominees, and at face value they appear to be stronger candidates than Ahmadinejad's three previous choices. READ MORE

One is Kazem Vaziri-Hamaneh, who was appointed as the ministry's caretaker on August 29 when deputies rejected Ahmadinejad's first choice.

The president's second nominee was withdrawn ahead of a vote, while the third was rejected last week.

Vice president and head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, has also been cited in the press as a potential nominee. He held the oil ministry post from 1985 to 1997.

State oil industry official Ali Beheshtian and MP Hassan Moradi, a member of the parliament's energy commission, are the other possible candidates, reports said.

Deputies have acknowledged the dispute over the post has been damaging to investor confidence as well as the Iran's standing within OPEC, where it is the number-two producer.

But they have stood firm in their unwillingness to approve nominees seen as being cronies of the president and not up to the task of managing the nation's oil sector. A constitutional deadline to fill the crucial post expired a week ago, but the consequences of this are vague, so officials have been pressing Ahmadinejad to come up with a quick solution.

Iran, estimated to hold 12 percent of world oil reserves, currently produces 4.2 million barrels per day, or 5.2 percent of global production. Oil accounts for 80 percent of the country's export revenues.

Preparing for judgement day

Lindsey Hilsum, Channel 4:
Mocked for his ugliness, stupidity and smelly socks, President Ahmadinejad is feared for his religious common touch, writes Lindsey Hilsum.

Black chadors gathered round their wrinkled faces, desperation in their rheumy eyes, the old women pressed up against the railings. One held out a note for the shrine attendant to drop into a postbox made of green wooden slats. At first she would not say what she had written. Then she began to cry, tears trickling under her thick pebble glasses.

"My eldest son is an opium addict," she sobbed. "He's married with a child but he's unemployed. My other sons are also opium addicts - they mixed with bad friends and have been addicted for five years now. I don't know what to do, so I am throwing this prayer into the well and hoping the Mahdi will help."


Shia Muslims believe that the 12th Imam or Mahdi, the last in a line of saints descended from Ali, the founder of their sect, vanished in 941 and will one day return. According to their tradition, he is "in occultation", like a sun hidden by clouds - after a stormy period of wars and other ravages, the clouds will clear and the sun will be revealed.

After a local man had a vision of the Mahdi, a shrine was erected at Jamkaran, outside the holy city of Qom. Some Shias believe that the Mahdi will reappear through a well at the shrine, so the postbox has been erected on the spot for the faithful to send him their prayers.

Preparing for the 'second coming'

Many of Iran's most learned ayatollahs say the legend of Jamkaran is superstition, but thousands flock there every Tuesday evening.


In one of his first acts after being elected in June, Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, allocated £12m of government funds to enlarge the shrine and mosque. Much to the alarm of those who say Iran is modernising, he frequently refers to the Mahdi, even mentioning him in his speech to the UN General Assembly in September. Asked late last month how Iranians should prepare for the Mahdi, he replied: "They must be pure and devout."

On other occasions, he has talked of reorienting the country's policies to be ready for judgement day, the equivalent of Tony Blair telling Britons to prepare for Christ's second coming. READ MORE

'A green light around me'

A DVD doing the rounds in exile circles and in Tehran reveals just how mystical Iran's new president is. The scene appears to have been filmed openly, shortly after Ahmadinejad returned from the UN General Assembly meeting in New York, but has not been publicly released.

The president is seen entering a house with Ayatollah Javadi Amoli, a senior conservative figure in Qom. They sit on a carpet and are served tea while talking about the money the government has allocated to the shrine at Jamkaran. Then the president turns to his recent UN address.

"On the last day when I was speaking, one of our group told me that when I started to say 'Bismillah Muhammad', he saw a green light come from around me, and I was placed inside this aura," he says. "I felt it myself. I felt that the atmosphere suddenly changed, and for those 27 or 28 minutes, all the leaders of the world did not blink. When I say they didn't move an eyelid, I'm not exaggerating. They were looking as if a hand was holding them there, and had just opened their eyes - Alhamdulillah!"

Religious slogans

Some are beginning to worry that the president's religiosity, combined with his extreme statements - notably his declaration that Israel should be "wiped off the face of the earth" - are damaging the country. The unspoken fear is that the president is not concerned about international turmoil, because he believes these are the End Times which herald the return of the Mahdi.

"Such talk is for internal consumption," says Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former vice-president. "But I am worried by the use of these religious slogans." Ayatollah Yusef Saanei, a liberal clergyman in Qom, said: "We should rule the country according to Islamic law, but we should not use religious ideas in politics. Even Ayatollah Khomeini did not believe we should do this."

The previous reformist government trod a fine line, defying western objections to Iran's nuclear programme while simultaneously giving the impression of opening up and becoming more tolerant. In three months, the new president has abandoned subtle diplomacy, sacking reformist ambassadors and replacing practised nuclear negotiators with ideologues.

The men he has nominated as ministers are seen by most Iranian politicians as inexperienced - so far, parliament has rejected three of his nominees for the post of oil minister, leaving the key ministry rudderless.

Mockery

Such is the whispering campaign against Ahmadinejad that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has called on people to stop criticising and give him a chance. Some of the mockery is simply snobbery. Ahmadinejad is a blacksmith's son; the way he mixes the equivalent of Shakespearean language with street slang makes the north Tehran elite curl up with mirth.

Text-message jokes are all about his ugliness, poor clothes sense, stupidity and smelly socks. But the reformist politicians who consider themselves so superior lost the July election to Ahmadinejad precisely because they did not have his common touch.

"The reformists do not understand Iranian society," said Emad Baghi, one of Iran's leading human rights campaigners. "There is a huge gap between them and the people. After all, a million Iranians go to Jamkaran every year."

The basiji

While the reformists concentrated on relaxing the dress code and other measures that made the lives of the elite more comfortable, Ahmadinejad talks of God and of redistributing wealth. His power base is the basiji, young men - and a few young women - who act as the regime's enforcers. Among the impoverished and devout, he is still very popular.

At prayers in Tehran last Friday, three young women sat on a prayer mat, eating biscuits and chatting. Two were 21, one 16. All said they voted for Ahmadinejad. "Islam was not being performed correctly in this country," said one. "We hope that Ahmadinejad, because he is a religious man even though not a mullah, will bring us the real Islam, so everything is ready for the return of the 12th Imam." Asked if she wasn't afraid of the war and suffering that are expected to precede the second coming, she said, "Any war before the return of the 12th Imam will be between bad Muslims and non-believers."

At Jamkaran many are too poor and ill-educated to know what the president has been saying, but a bearded young man came up to give his opinion, carefully keeping his eyes to the ground so as not to look on a woman. "This is the first president to talk of the Mahdi as we do," he said. "We are happy about this and we support him."

Mullahs in Space

Cox & Forkum:

Friday, December 02, 2005

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 12.3.2005:

Iran and Russia sign $1 bln defence deal - reports

Meg Clothier, Reuters:
Russia plans to sell more than $1 billion worth of tactical surface-to-air missiles and other defence hardware to Iran, media reported on Friday. ...

The Vedomosti business daily cited military sources as saying Iran would buy 29 TOR-M1 systems designed to bring down aircraft and guided missiles at low altitudes.. calling it the biggest sale of Russian defence hardware to Iran for about five years, said Moscow and Tehran had already signed the contract. ...

"Russia has long positioned itself as a major peace broker between Iran and the West -- and all of a sudden they are throwing this bombshell. It just does not make any sense," said the diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous. READ MORE
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.
  • Iran Focus reported that the Supreme Commander of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) reaffirmed his force’s “solid support” for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
  • Iran Focus reported that senior Iranian Ayatollah Jannati recently said that Iran owed its “victory” in the international stand-off over its suspected nuclear weapons program to its para-military Bassij.
  • Caroline Glick, The Jerusalem Post reported the cost of the international communities incompetence on the Iran issue. She cited this blog.
  • Amir Taheri, The New York Post reported that having tried to undermine the Iraqi attempt at building a democracy, the Arab League is sending signals that it may be changing the foredoomed policy it has pursued for almost three years.
  • PakTribune reported that El Baradei said a meeting with A Q Khan is vital to solve Iran nuclear puzzle.
  • Stratfor weighed in on an apparent shift in Israel's Iran policy.
  • Dow Jones Newswires reported that German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier traveled to Moscow Saturday for talks with Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin on topics including Iran's disputed nuclear program.
  • Ron Kampeas, JTA News reported that with time short on Iran nukes, AIPAC criticized the Bush approach.
  • MSNBC reported that Israel carried out a successful test of its missile-interceptor system, an Arrow II missile downed an incoming rocket designed to simulate an Iranian Shahab-3.
  • Gerald M. Steinberg, Jerusalem Issue Brief examined: Can Diplomacy Still Prevent Iran from Going Nuclear?
  • And finally, Amy K. Rosenthal, The Weekly Standard argued that Italy is getting tough on Iran.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards vow support for Ahmadinejad

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website
The Supreme Commander of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) reaffirmed his force’s “solid support” for the hard-line government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a government-run website reported on Friday.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of an inauguration ceremony for the new Deputy Interior Ministry, Major General Yahya Rahim said that the IRGC would help the ministry in ensuring national security. We will help the government and the Interior Ministry to bring about security. We believe it to be our duty to support the government, the IRGC chief said. READ MORE

In a significant move to bolster the control of the IRGC over Iran’s civilian institutions, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei approved the appointment of the IRGC Deputy Commandant for the top Interior Ministry post. Brigadier General Mohammad-Baqer Zolqadr was placed in charge of internal security under Interior Minister Hojjatoleslam Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi.

Asked about the significance of the recent appointment of many IRGC officers as provincial governors, Safavi said, “Whenever the president requests any sort of help from us in running and developing the country, we consider it our duty to support his government”.

Zolqadr will be working closely with another IRGC general, Mohammad Jaafari, who is in charge of the internal security directorate at the Supreme National Security Council. Together with Esmail Ahmadi-Moghaddam, another Revolutionary Guards general who was earlier appointed as the chief of the country’s paramilitary police, the trio will effectively have total control over internal security.

Iran and Russia sign $1 bln defence deal - reports

Meg Clothier, Reuters:
Russia plans to sell more than $1 billion worth of tactical surface-to-air missiles and other defence hardware to Iran, media reported on Friday.

Moscow is already at odds with the West over its nuclear ties with Tehran but has sought to use its warm relations with Iran to be recognised as a key mediator between the West and the Islamic Republic.

The Vedomosti business daily cited military sources as saying Iran would buy 29 TOR-M1 systems designed to bring down aircraft and guided missiles at low altitudes.

The paper, calling it the biggest sale of Russian defence hardware to Iran for about five years, said Moscow and Tehran had already signed the contract.

Interfax news agency separately quoted a source as saying the deal, which would also include modernising Iran's air force and supplying some patrol boats, was worth more than $1 billion.

The move, likely to irritate Israel and the United States, could strain Moscow's efforts to broker a deal between Iran and European negotiators aimed at breaking a deadlock over Tehran's nuclear programme.

Israel in particular is nervous about Iran's military potential after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in October that Israel should be "wiped off the map" -- comments condemned by Russia at the time.

Russia's Defence Ministry declined to comment on the deal. Officials at state arms exporter Rosoboronexport, Russia's state defence supplier, were not available for comment.

Western countries suspect Iran of seeking nuclear weapons under the cover of a civilian atomic programme, which Tehran denies, saying it wants only to generate electricity.

Russia has helped Iran build its first nuclear reactor and is preparing to launch it next year. Some in the West fear that Iran could use Russian know-how to make sensitive weapons.

The defence industry source told Interfax there were no international restrictions on selling weapons to Iran.

"Moreover, practically all the weapons that Russia is delivering to Iran in the coming years are defensive rather than offensive in character," the source said.

One Western diplomat who closely watches Russia-Iran dealings said news of the deal was alarming and would further increase tensions.


"Russia has long positioned itself as a major peace broker between Iran and the West -- and all of a sudden they are throwing this bombshell. It just does not make any sense," said the diplomat, who asked to remain anonymous. READ MORE

(Additional reporting by Maria Golovnina)