Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [8/13/06 - 8/19/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran behind Hezbollah's war on Israel - The cease fire.

• Reuters reported that Iran welcomed a planned ceasefire to halt the month-long war between Lebanon's Hizbollah and Israel but described the U.N. Security Council's call for disarming Iranian-backed Hezbollah as "illogical".
• Trend.az reported that Iranian leaders claim the war in Lebanon has resulted in "total defeat" for Israel.
• Ardeshird.blogspot.com reported that an Iranian plane was forced to land in Turkey. The plane's destination was Lebanon loaded with revolutionary guards. Israeli and American fighters forced one of these planes loaded with mid-range missiles heading to Lebanon to land back in Iran.
• Aviation Week & Space Technology reported that the Iranian government has a cadre of "hundreds" of technical advisers in Lebanon that trained, and continue to support, Hezbollah forces in the use of sophisticated anti-ship and anti-tank missiles and unmanned aircraft.
• David Makovsky, New York Daily News argued that if Hezbollah emerges from this conflict emboldened, it is a safe bet that Iran will set out to make still more militia mayhem.
• Reuters reported that President Bush said Iran must stop supporting armed groups trying to derail democracies in Iraq and Lebanon.
• Iran Press News reported that Nasrollah Safir, bishop and leader of the Lebanese Maronite Christians, stated that all Lebanese should realize that the greatest danger of all today comes from the regime in Tehran.
• Iran Focus reported that an array of weapons made in Iran was discovered in Iraq’s southern port city of Um Qasr. In the weapons cache were hundreds of Katyusha rockets and mortar shells as well as several thousand light arms, all been manufactured in neighboring Iran.
• Condoleezza Rice, The Washington Post explained why the UN resolution on Lebanon is, in her mind, a path to lasting peace. But she also said to USA Today: "I don't think there is an expectation that this (U.N.) force is going to physically disarm Hezbollah."
• Neil King Jr., The Wall Street Journal argued that the ambiguous conclusion to Israel's latest battle with Hezbollah looks to have weakened Washington's hand, and strengthened Iran's, in the escalating showdown over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
• Arthur Herman, New York Post argued that historians will look back at this weekend's cease-fire agreement in Lebanon as a pivotal moment in the war on terror. It is pivotal in the same sense that the Munich agreement between Adolf Hitler and Neville Chamberlain was pivotal.
• Amir Taheri, Gulf News argued that the ceasefire ordered in Lebanon by the United Nations Security Council may well create more problems than it solves, ultimately sowing the seeds of an even larger and deadlier conflict.
• Toronto Star reported that an already fragile ceasefire in the Middle East now appears in greater danger of unraveling, threatened by Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and Israeli charges that Iran and Syria are already rearming its enemy. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said: "This war is not over yet."
• TurkishPress reported that Turkey has grounded two Syria-bound Iranian planes over the past month to search for weapons following Israeli intelligence that Iran is supplying rockets to Hezbollah.
• Iran Press News reported that the regime-run Fars news agency reported: “The minister of housing and urban development of the Islamic regime announced that he is ready to rebuild Lebanon."
• Fox News reported that Iran has been attempting to rearm the Lebanon-based terror network Hezbollah since the U.N.-backed cease-fire.
• YNet News reported that Abu Nasser, commander of al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade in Nablus, encouraged by war results said 'Our brothers demonstrated what we have felt in recent years: Israel falling apart. Next time Iran will be in picture with missiles on Tel Aviv and it will be easier'.
• USA Today reported that the United States blocked an Iranian cargo plane's flight to Syria last month. The plane returned to Tehran, where the military cargo was unloaded.
• Reuters reported that Hezbollah handed out bundles of cash on Friday to people whose homes were wrecked by Israeli bombing, consolidating the Iranian-backed group's support among Lebanon's Shi'ites.
• Haaretz reported that for the first time in 30 years, the Lebanese Army deployed south of the Litani River. But, the Lebanese Army has no plans to drive Hezbollah out of the South and the Ayatollahs is on the verge of witnessing the realization of its dream for a "mini-Iran" in southern Lebanon.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat examined the myth of Hezbollah's victory in Lebanon in its recent war with Israel.
• Charles Krauthammer, The Washington Post reminded us that the UN's latest resolution calling for the disarmament is the 7th such resolution and if they are not disarmed we are headed for a complete repudiation of the bottom-line American position.
• Mona Fayyad, Lebanon Wire, a Lebanese writer argued confronting difficult questions and putting them out in public could help prevent the Lebanese from falling to the precipice that has no return. In doing so, she explains what it is to be a Shiite now in Lebanon.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that three U.S. allies in the Mideast are spearheading an Arab effort to present a plan for reviving the stalled peace process and talks with Israel.
  

Ahmadinejad's promised message to the world coming soon... August 22nd?

• Patrick Poole, FrontPageMagazine.com examined Ahmadinejad’s apocalyptic faith. A must read.
• Caroline Glick, The Jerusalem Post provided evidence of the coming wars she fears soon will come to the Middle East and warns that Israel is not yet prepared for it.
• Amir Taheri, Arab News argued that Lebanon is just a prelude to a bigger, longer, costlier, and deadlier struggle.
• The Scotsman reported that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned against any military strike on Iran.
  

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.

• Reuters reported that Iran said on Western threats and pressure would not resolve a dispute over its atomic program but could push Tehran to review its nuclear policy.
• Forbes.com reported that China's assistant foreign minister will travel to Iran today to discuss the ongoing nuclear crisis.
• BBC News reported that Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran's foreign minister said Iran is ready to discuss the suspension of its uranium enrichment program as demanded by Western powers.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that China's top envoy in charge of nonproliferation issues has urged Iran to accept an incentives package offered by China and five other countries in exchange for suspending uranium enrichment.
• Reuters reported that the United States expects the United Nations to act swiftly next month and consider sanctions against Iran if it does not drop its nuclear program.
• Forbes reported that the United States intends to act next month to have the United Nations impose penalties on Iran for refusing to suspend its enrichment of uranium.
• Bronwen Maddox, The Times Online reported that the Lebanon crisis has turned up the heat with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. This week has brought new signs that Tehran won’t back down. But Iran has stirred in, too, some mollifying gestures and clearly hopes to play a clever game, one step back from the brink of outright provocation.
• Henry Sokolski, National Review Online argued that the nuclear deal Washington is currently dangling before Iran to entice it to halt its declared uranium-enrichment program is a cure nearly as awful as the disease.
  

60 Minute interview with Ahmadinejad.

• John McIntyre, RealClearPolitics reviewed Ahmadinejad's 60 Minutes interview and argued that if the interview were a boxing match, the Iranian President won in a blow out.
• C-SPAN aired an unedited version of Mike Wallace's interview with Ahmadinejad.
• Bret Stephens, The Wall Street Journal suggested the questions that 60 Minutes should have asked Ahmadinejad.
• Bernard Goldberg, The Wall Street Journal reported on the 60 minutes interview with Ahmadinejad and argued that Ahmadinejad is television savvy and understands the media at least as well as Mike Wallace does.
  

Iranian leaders threats.

• Yahoo News reported that Iran's president has launched a Web log, using his first entry to ask visitors to the site if they think the United States and Israel want to start a new world war.
• LittleGreenFootballs warned its readers that Ahmadinejad's Blog is dangerous because it may try to exploit a weakness in Internet Explorer to install a “back door” in your computer.
• CNN News reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Hezbollah has toppled U.S.-led plans for the Middle East.
• MyWay News reported that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would not yield to Western pressure to give up its home-grown nuclear technology.
• The Jerusalem Post reported that an Iranian hard-line cleric warned Israel that Iran's 2,000-kilometer missiles will land in Tel Aviv if the Jewish state attacks Iran.
  

Iranian dissident's.

• Los Angeles Times reported that in LA, Ganji affirmed Israel's right to statehood,s vow to destroy the Jewish state.
• Iran Press News reported that on July 9th on the 7th anniversary ceremonies of the, 1999 Tehran University uprisings, the Islamic regime, attacked and arrested a few of our friends who had gathered in Tehran; they were transferred to an unknown location and they are still in detention.
• Rooz Online reported that Ramin Jahanbegloo’s ‘confessions about his so called role in the velvet revolution of Iran are going to be soon broadcast on national television in Iran.
• Iran Press News reported that the Mohammadi family has demanded that the Islamic regime identify all those who had a hand in the murder of their son.
  

The unrest inside of Iran.

• Khaleej Times Online reported that armed bandits killed eight Iranian police and wounded three others in an ambush in southern Iran.
  

Human Rights and Freedom of the Press in Iran.

• Yahoo News reported that Iranian authorities are stepping up arrests and pressure on popular bloggers as part of a wider Internet clampdown.
• Fox News reported that an exhibition of more than 200 cartoons about the Holocaust opened Monday as Iran's response to last year's Muslim outrage over a caricature of the Prophet Muhammad in a Danish newspaper. But interestingly, only about 50 people attended the exhibition's opening.
• Iran Press News reported that the Islamic regime once again executed three people on the grounds of the Zahedan prison.
  

The corruption in the Iranian leadership.

• Iran Press News reported that one of the biggest contracts in the history of the oil and gas industry has become a tug of war between certain families Iranian administration. The contract entitled "NIOC LNG” is considered to be equal to two years of Iran’s oil income and given to nephews of the vice president.
• Rooz Online reported the Iranian administration is seeking changes to its election law which would put the relegation of the supervising and even procedural tasks of screening candidates to the Baseej para-military forces that are part of the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps. Amazing.
  

The Iranian Military.

• Iran Focus reported that Iran will launch a new round of war-games later this week, putting on display new Iranian-make armaments.
• World Tribune reported that Iran launched a new round of military exercises in an effort to test its new combat doctrine using weapons systems which were apparently tested in the recent war in Lebanon.
• Threats Watch reviewed the latest developments in Iran as it relates to Ahmadinejad's promise of a response on the nuclear crisis August 22nd.
• Ardeshir Dolat reported that according to a secret report to Khamenei, American and Israeli planes flew over Tehran in the past few nights. Disinformation?
• Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the Iranian armed forces began their first stage of massive wargames code-named `Blow of Zolfaqar.' Various units of air-support Army chinook helicopters, unmanned planes, parachutists, electronic war units and special forces are participating in the maneuver.
• Reuters reported that a senior Iranian army commander said the armed forces were prepared for any action by Israel after what Iran has called the Jewish state's defeat at the hands of Lebanon's Hizbollah guerrillas.
  

The Iranian Economy.

• The Mercury News reported that at least 5 million of Iran's 65 million people regularly use the Internet, according to estimates by international agencies. The figure is expected to grow sharply in the next decade.
• IranMania reported that the total number of the cell phones in Iran will reach 15 million by February 19, 2007.
• Iran Press News reported that 500 workers seeking work have been dispatched to Iraq.
• Forbes reported that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad's popular support comes from his appeals to social justice and Iranian nationalism. It also reflects working-class anger at the corruption of the past governments. However, the economic news since his election has largely been bad and is likely to cause his support to drop dramatically.
• Iran Press News reported that the regime-run news agency, ILNA, said: “The status of 30 big factories in the province of Gilan is extremely critical and over 7000 workers are in limbo and paying for the [regime’s] erroneous policies of privatization.
• Reuters reported that Wall Street may hit some turbulence next week, with Iran's nuclear dispute with the West poised to come to a head.
  

Iran and the International community.

• Iran Press News reported that American company Halliburton recently instructed its branch offices that they refrain from renewing their contracts with all their employees of Iranian nationality.
• Iran Press News reported that the regime-run site Aref News wrote: "Some of the diplomats stationed in the German embassy in Tehran with inauguration of their German language training institute were plotting to exploit possible opportunities."
• The Guardian reported that Turkey and Iran dispatched tanks, artillery and thousands of troops to their frontiers with Iraq during the past few weeks in what appears to be a coordinated effort to disrupt the activities of Kurdish rebel bases. Scores of Kurds have fled their homes in the northern frontier region after four days of shelling by the Iranian army. Where is the MSM on this?
• The Jerusalem Post reported that a senior Israeli delegation headed to Moscow to complain that Russian-made anti-tank missiles had reached Hezbullah guerrillas in Lebanon.
• The Washington Post reported that two Shiite Muslim parties accused Iran of instigating violence in Iraq and attempting to destabilize the country, exposing a growing rift within Iraq's largest sect.
• National Post reported that Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay says Tehran has "blood on its hands" for backing Hezbollah in its recent war against Israel.
  

The US Congress on Iran.

• Sam Brownback, CNN News argued that the Iranian leader's arrogance in pursuing the nuclear bomb may well be their undoing.
  

Must Read reports.

• Roger Scruton, The Wall Street Journal examined the term "Islamofascism" and that the word provides a convenient way of announcing that you are not against Islam but only against its perversion by the terrorists. But this prompts the question whether terrorism is really as alien to Islam.
• Amil Imani, Persian Journal argued that "useful idiots" are Islam's best soldiers and that this new generation of "useful idiots" also lives in liberal democracies but serves the cause of Islamofascism.
• The Detroit News reported that 58 percent of Americans in the poll think Iran is now the "main promoter of Islamic fascism in the Middle East," and 76 percent believe Iran must be prevented from obtaining nuclear weapons "at any cost."
• Sydney Morning Herald reported on the changing face of Iran. A very interesting report.
• Caroline Glick, The Jerusalem Post provided evidence of the coming wars she fears soon will come to the Middle East and warns that Israel is not yet prepared for it.
• Michael Slackman, The New York Times provided an important lesson for Americans in the fine Iranian art of hiding what you mean to say. A must read.
• Amil Imani, The Family Security Matters untangled facts from myth in understanding the Muslim mindset.
  

The Experts.

• Michael Ledeen, The National Review Online reminded us the terror masters in Syria and Iran are waging a regional war against us, running from Afghanistan and Iraq to, Gaza, Israel, and Lebanon.
• Ilan Berman, American Foreign Policy Council reported that al-Qaeda's second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is attempting to mend fences with the Iranian leadership. In a letter to Saad Bin Laden, currently in Iran under the protection of the regime), Zawahiri telegraphed a number of changes in the terror group's regional strategy aimed at preserving al-Qaeda's tactical partnership with the Islamic Republic.
• Amir Taheri, Gulf News argued that the ceasefire ordered in Lebanon by the United Nations Security Council may well create more problems than it solves, ultimately sowing the seeds of an even larger and deadlier conflict.
• Kenneth R. Timmerman, FrontPageMagazine.com reported that a new study of 115 Iranian school textbooks concludes that Iran is preparing its children for war, and is willing to risk massive casualties for the opportunity to defeat America in a world-wide cataclysmic confrontation.
• Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat examined the myth of Hezbollah's victory in Lebanon in its recent war with Israel.
• Amir Taheri, Arab News argued that Lebanon is just a prelude to a bigger, longer, costlier, and deadlier struggle.
  

Photos, cartoons and videos.

• A satirical photo of Ahmadinejad. He would fit in with this crowd.
• MEMRI.org reported that he war between Israel and Hizbullah has revealed profound disagreement in the Arab world. They published excerpts from articles published in the Arab media. A must read.
• The Weekly Standard published a graphic parody: Iran considers package of incentives offered by United States - New offer to include three free months of DirecTV.
• Iran Press News published a photo of a recent sign outside of Tehran.
• Cox & Forkum published another cartoon: Undeniable.
• One Jerusalem released an audio version of a conversation between bloggers and Israel's Ambassador Lubrani's thoughts on Iran's internal politics, the impact of the recent war in Lebanon, and Iran's increasing role in regional politics.
• MEMRI.org published excerpts from a speech by Ahmad Khatami, member of the Iranian Assembly of Experts where he warned that Israel: "should fear the day that our missiles, with a range of 2,000 kilometers, land in the heart of Tel Aviv." Video.
  

The Quote of the Week.

CNN News reported that Ahmadinejad told a huge crowd in Arbadil in northwestern Iran:

"God's promises have come true," "On one side, it's corrupt powers of the criminal U.S. and Britain and the Zionists .... with modern bombs and planes. And on the other side is a group of pious youth relying on God."

Tags: iran, news, nuclear, lebanon, isreal, iraq,

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 8.20.2006:

The coming wars in the Middle East.

• Caroline Glick, The Jerusalem Post provided evidence of the coming wars she fears soon will come to the Middle East and warns that Israel is not yet prepared for it.
• Amir Taheri, Arab News argued that Lebanon is just a prelude to a bigger, longer, costlier, and deadlier struggle.
• The Scotsman reported that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned against any military strike on Iran.

Why it is so difficult to negotiate with the Iranians. Must Reading.

• Michael Slackman, The New York Times provided an important lesson for Americans in the fine Iranian art of hiding what you mean to say. A must read.
• Amil Imani, The Family Security Matters untangled facts from myth in understanding the Muslim mindset.

Shiite Clerics in Iraq blame Iran for the growing violence.

• The Washington Post reported that two Shiite Muslim parties accused Iran of instigating violence in Iraq and attempting to destabilize the country, exposing a growing rift within Iraq's largest sect.

Iranian war games prepare Iran for war with Israel?

• Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the Iranian armed forces began their first stage of massive war games code-named `Blow of Zolfaqar.' Various units of air-support Army chinook helicopters, unmanned planes, parachutists, electronic war units and special forces are participating in the maneuver.
• Reuters reported that a senior Iranian army commander said the armed forces were prepared for any action by Israel after what Iran has called the Jewish state's defeat at the hands of Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrillas.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• National Post reported that Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay says Tehran has "blood on its hands" for backing Hezbollah in its recent war against Israel.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that three U.S. allies in the Mideast are spearheading an Arab effort to present a plan for reviving the stalled peace process and talks with Israel.

Tags: iran, news, nuclear, lebanon, isreal, iraq,

A Look at the Muslim Mindset

Amil Imani, The Family Security Matters:

Diffusing the present dangerous confrontation between Islam and the West demands rational, impartial, and cool heads to untangle facts from myth, understand the Muslim mindset, and redress any grievances on either side. READ MORE

The Muslims’ perennial complaint is that the imperialist West—all colonial powers of the past, as well as the United States of America—have victimized them for decades and even centuries and continue to do so in every conceivable way. The litany of the alleged wrongdoings by the West is encyclopedic. To begin with, they claim the West has shown utter contempt for the legitimate rights of the Muslim nations by arbitrarily dividing much of the Islamic land into fractured entities, plundering its resources, and installing in its midst its illegitimate stepchild of Israel—a huge thorn in their side, so they complain.

“A grain of truth is needed to make a mountain of lies believable,” is an old saw. In fairness to Muslims, there is some substance to their claims against the West. For now, though, let us focus on the general mindset of Muslims which bears heavily on the hostility toward the West—a serious hostility that may bring about the dreaded Armageddon. These factors are not characteristic of every Muslim, but together form a structure in which we can consider certain tendencies.

Patriarchy and Authoritarianism - Authoritarianism in Muslim society starts with the supreme authority, Allah, through his one and only prophet, Muhammad, his Caliphs or Imams, and the high-ranking religious divines all the way down to the village clergy. This authoritarian mentality encompasses all aspects of life. The king and his dominion as the viceroy of God, the Khan and his unchallenged rule over the tribe, the village headsman and his extensive power, and finally the father and his control at home over the women and children. All these authority figures are male.

The authoritarian type poses numerous problems and presents many ramifications, much too important and complex to be comprehensively treated here. For now, it is important to understand that a person with the authoritarian personality tends toward extremism. He can be docility itself under certain circumstances and a maniacal murderer under others. He is the type who would just as happily kill or die, when he is directed to do so. He would, for instance, gladly strap on an explosive vest, in obedience to a superior’s order, and detonate it in a crowd of innocent civilians without the slightest hesitation.

Focus on a Goal – In the Muslim world, the goal is everything. In its extreme interpretation, Islam condones any and all means to achieve its goals, including the ultimate objective of incorporating the entire world into the Islamic Ummah. Of course, Muslims disagree with one another regarding the character of the Ummah itself and who is going to reign over it, but this is a “family dispute” that can be resolved later. For now, the intermediate goal of defeating all non-believers is sufficient to push all interferences aside. When “The end justifies the means” is adopted as extremists' guiding principle, all sorts of betrayal, deception, and outright lies are fully condoned in furthering the work of Islam. This work, in the present-day world, is defined by an entrenched and influential clergy who issue fatwas, or rulings, that become directives and laws to the faithful.

Khomeini, the founder of the Iranian Islamic state, made extensive use of the fatwa. Widely-known in the West is Khomeini’s fatwa condemning Salman Rushdie to death for his book. A lesser known fatwa of Khomeini during the last Iran-Iraq war led to the slaughter of thousands of Iranian children. Children, nearly all under 15 years of age, were given plastic keys to paradise as they were commanded by the fatwa of the imam to rush forward to clear minefields for the tanks to follow. In obedience to a fatwa issued to help achieve a goal, willing Iranians had no problem deceiving innocent children with plastic keys to paradise to make the Iranian army's path a bit easier..

Fatalism - One of the most subtle, yet most important characteristics of many Muslim’s mindsets is the high degree of fatalism. There is hardly a statement to be made that is not made conditional on the will of Allah. “I shall see you tomorrow, Allah willing.” “You will make it home, Allah willing.” “Things will work out, Allah willing.” If something happens, it is Allah’s will. If it doesn’t, it is Allah’s will. This perspective absolves the individual of any and all responsibility, in stark contrast with the take charge individuality of the West.

Uniqueness – All people, as a group or as individuals, are unique. Muslims share a common Islamic psychological milieu, always present though in different degrees, dependent on whether they live in Islamic lands or in societies predominantly non-Islamic. The psychological characteristics of any Muslim group or individual is directly dependent on the kind and amount of the Islamic diet they consume. The Islamic diet has numerous ingredients—some of which are wholesome, some are dangerously toxic, and some are between the two extremes. Over the years, Islamic leaders have sometimes found it expedient to feed the masses mainly the toxic ingredients to further their own interests. Individuals and groups, for instance, have used the immense energizing power of hatred, the cohesive force of polarization in creating in-group solidarity; and the great utility value of blaming others for their real and perceived misfortunes.

Conclusions - Admittedly, the non-Islamic culture is no panacea. It has, however, one outstanding feature that counters many of radical Islam's most destructive characteristics - it allows for liberty for all its adherents. For those who have experienced liberty, no inducement is likely to make them give it up—particularly not the fictional promises of the Islamists that have failed in the past and are doomed to fail even more miserably in the future.

The best, yet most difficult, way to resolve this conflict is to do what hundreds of thousands of Muslims have already done, to abandon rigid, oppressive, and exploitative dogma for the nurturing expanse of liberty. Slavery of the mind is as evil as the slavery of the body. Islamofacism enslaves them both.

Within the emancipating and accommodating haven of liberty, those who wish to remain Muslim can retain and practice the good teachings of Islam but renounce intolerance, hatred, and violence. It takes great effort and courage to ascend from the degrading pit of slavery to the mount of emancipation. Yet it is both possible and exhilarating to do it, since many have done so successfully and happily. As more people leave the shackles of religious slavery, more will follow and the long-suffering Muslims, victimized for far too long, will be a free people in charge of their own life and destiny. It is a painful process of growing up, of asserting one’s coming of age, and marching lockstep with the free members of the human race.

FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Amil Imani is an Iranian-born American citizen and pro-democracy activist residing in the United States of America. Imani is a columnist, literary translator, novelist and an essayist who has been writing and speaking out for the struggling people of his native land, Iran. He maintains a website at http://amilimani.com

Iran ready for Israel action after Lebanon war - army

Reuters:

A senior Iranian army commander said on Saturday the armed forces were prepared for any action by Israel after what Iran has called the Jewish state's defeat at the hands of Lebanon's Hizbollah guerrillas.

Ataollah Salehi, commander-in-chief of Iran's army, made his comment on the first day of army wargames, which started in the south of the country but will later extend to other areas. He did not say how long the manoeuvres would last.

"The enemy has gone mad facing Hizbollah's strength and we should keep ourselves prepared given the history we have from our mad enemy," Salehi was quoted as saying by Iran's official IRNA news agency. READ MORE

Iranian officials have praised the truce in Lebanon as a victory for Iran's ally Hizbollah and a defeat for Israel.

Iran is embroiled in a nuclear standoff with the West.

It is due to reply by Aug. 22 to a demand by major powers that it relinquish uranium enrichment in return for trade and technical concessions. It denies accusations by western countries that it is seeking nuclear bombs.

Israel launched a strike on Iraqi nuclear facilities in 1981 and some analysts have speculated Israel could consider a strike on Iran. But they say this would be a tougher task, partly because Iran's facilities are widely dispersed.

"We have designed plans that will definitely surprise our enemies," Salehi said in comments on state television, adding that the wargames would be held across the country.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the ideologically driven wing of the armed forces which has a separate command structure to the regular military, held wargames in the Gulf in April in which they tested new missiles, torpedoes and other equipment.

Analysts interpreted those wargames as a thinly veiled threat that Iran could disrupt vital oil shipping lanes if pushed by an escalation in the nuclear dispute.

Officials said new home-made equipment would be tested during the army's manoeuvres, newspapers earlier reported, but no such tests were announced on Saturday.

Lebanon: Prelude to a Bigger, Longer, Costlier, and Deadlier Struggle

Amir Taheri, Arab News:

With the miniwar between Israel and the Lebanese branch of the Hezbollah halted, at least temporarily, the usual "who-won-who-lost" debate is raging in the media.

Since, in politics, perceptions are often more important than reality, it would be futile to try to establish a clinical assessment of what happened. Hezbollah and its supporters are confident that they won, and nothing will shake their belief. The same is true of Israel whose Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has had the temerity to claim that he achieved all his objectives.

Thus, what matters are not the conflicting claims of victory that one hears.

What is important is the conclusion that the protagonists draw from their rival claims. READ MORE

Let us start with the immediate protagonists - Israel and Hezbollah.

The initial dispute, over exchanging two captured Israeli soldiers against some 1000 Hezbollah prisoners, that triggered the war, could have been resolved through diplomatic channels as in the past. The fact that Olmert chose to use force meant only one thing: The new Israeli leader wanted to try something different. That "something different" was military action against Hezbollah. If Olmert now believes that he won, we must assume that he will play the military card more often. And that could mean major changes in Israeli policies as developed since 2000.

The truth, however, is that Olmert's "something different" did not work.

He did not get the captured soldiers back, and there is no guarantee that he will see Hezbollah fully disarmed by the so-called "international community."

As for Hezbollah's claim of victory the logical conclusion is that the price paid, in Lebanese lives and the destruction caused, was worth paying. Logically, Hezbollah should reject all talk of laying down its arms. If Hezbollah won the "historic and strategic victory" that Hassan Nasrallah has claimed, this is no time to abandon the struggle. A victorious army does not disarm; it pursues the war until the enemy is forced to surrender. The truth, however, is that the United Nations managed to obtain a cease-fire after the Lebanese government, of which Hezbollah is part, agreed to put southern Lebanon, nearly 10 percent of the national territory, under virtual UN mandate. Hezbollah will also lose most of its arms caches south of the Litani River.

While the miniwar was fought between Israel and Hezbollah, everyone knows that the real clash was between the United States and Iran over their conflicting scenarios for the Middle East.

It is certain that Israel would not have taken military action without at least a nod and a wink from Washington. Thus, President George W. Bush's claim that the war would help his "Grater Middle East" project matters beyond mere diplomatic considerations. The logical conclusion from Bush's assessment of the outcome of the war is that the use of force remains a live option for removing obstacles to the American project for the region.

The truth, however, is that the military option does not enjoy the level of popular support that any US president would need before he sends in "the boys." Worse still, the latest Israel-Hezbollah duel may persuade more Americans that force does not work against enemies who fight asymmetric war and are not impressed by the so-called "shock-and-awe" style of warfare.

Many observers see Iran as the biggest winner from the conflict. That view has been endorsed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who has spoken of a "divine victory" and renewed his promise to wipe Israel off the map. He has also said that the "American dream of the Greater Middle East" has been buried in the rubbles of south Lebanon.

The logical conclusion from that analysis would mean a more aggressive Iranian diplomatic, political and propaganda campaign in support of Ahmadinejad's vision for the region. However, such a campaign would make no headway if Iran were to bow to the pressure over its alleged nuclear weapons' program. If Iran has won such a great victory against the United States in Lebanon, it could not adopt a defeatist posture by accepting the humiliating resolution passed against it by the UN Security Council last month.

Logically, Ahmadinejad should reassert Iran's right to pursue its nuclear program unhampered, and tell the US-led coalition to take a walk. And, that would force the US-led coalition either to push the conflict one notch higher or to eat humble pie, thus emboldening Ahmadinejad further.

Syria's position is also interesting to note. At the start of the Israel-Hezbollah war, Damascus insisted that it was in no way involved and denied any prior knowledge of the Hezbollah plans.

Now, however, Syria is anxious to claim a share of the victory it believes Hezbollah has secured.

In what must be rated as the most important speech of his career so far, President Bashar Assad hailed Hezbollah's victory, claimed a share in it, and forecast the defeat of "American plans" for the Middle East. But he did two things that may prove to be of greater importance in the long-term.

The first was his energetic attack on other Arab regimes, thus emphasizing Syria's alliance with Iran in support of an anti-American vision of the Middle East. By doing so, he ended more than a quarter of a century of ambiguity, generated by President Hafez Assad, about the strategic nature of the Damascus-Tehran axis.

President Bashar's second important move was his re-commitment of Syria to a strategy of armed struggle to liberate the Golan Heights, and other Arab territories occupied by Israel. By doing so, he ended another ambiguity cultivated by his illustrious father who talked of war but never directly fired a bullet against Israel, and kept channels open to Washington at all times.

The upshot of all this is that the idea of wiping Israel off the map, something that no one seriously advocated even a year ago, is now forcefully presented as a realistic and achievable goal. Suddenly all the talk about the "road map", a "two-states formula", and even "unilateral transfer of land to Palestinians" appears out of context. If the whole of Palestine, including the part known as Israel, can be "liberated", there is no reason why those who always saw the creation of the Jewish state as a "nakbah"(catastrophe), should settle for only a small parcel of the "usurped land."

If one takes the conflicting claims of victory seriously, only one conclusion seems possible: The protagonists are in no mood to modify, let alone abandon, their rival projects to remove the threat of war. There will be no place for the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Baathist regime in Syria and the Hezbollah in an American-designed "Greater Middle East". At the same time, there could be no place for Israel, US influence, and pro-American regimes in a Middle East where the Islamic republic and its allies, including non-state players, set the agenda.

The miniwar fought in Lebanon was one battle in what could be a bigger, longer, costlier, and deadlier struggle for setting the agenda for the Middle East that would also affect the global balance of power. Because the prospect of such a war is looming larger than before, it may be too early to draw hasty conclusions from the five-week test of wills that Lebanon had to witness this summer.

A must read.

A Lesson for Americans about Iranians - The Fine Art of Hiding What You Mean to Say

Michael Slackman, The New York Times:

IT is certainly unfair to accuse all Iranians of being liars. The label is judgmental and reeks of stereotype. The more appropriate way to phrase the Iranian view toward honesty, the way many Iranians themselves describe it, is to say that being direct and telling the truth are not prized principles in Iran.

Often, just the opposite is true. People are expected to give false praise and insincere promise. They are expected to tell you what you want to hear to avoid conflict, or to offer hope when there is none.

There is a social principle in Iran called taarof, (or Formalities - H.H.) a concept that describes the practice of insincerity — of inviting people to dinner when you don't really want their company, for example. Iranians understand such practices as manners and are not offended by them.

But taarof is just one aspect of a whole framework for communication that can put Iranian words in a completely different context from the one Americans are familiar with.

"You have to guess if people are sincere, you are never sure," said Nasser Hadian, a political science professor at the University of Tehran. "Symbolism and vagueness are inherent in our language." READ MORE

This way of communicating is suddenly essential for Americans to understand. Increasingly, it appears that the road to peace, and war, runs through Tehran. And so hearing what Iranians are really saying, not what Americans think they are saying, has become a priority. Iran has outsized influence with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. It has profound influence with the newly empowered Shiites of Iraq. And it is locked in its own fight with the United Nations Security Council over its ambition to develop nuclear technology.

And yet, understanding each other — forget about agreeing — is complicated from the start.

"Speech has a different function than it does in the West," said Kian Tajbakhsh, a social scientist who lived for many years in England and the United States before returning to Iran a decade ago. "In the West, 80 percent of language is denotative. In Iran 80 percent is connotative."

Translation: In the West, "yes" generally means yes.

In Iran, "yes" can mean yes, but it often means maybe or no. In Iran, Dr. Tajbakhsh said, listeners are expected to understand that words don't necessarily mean exactly what they mean.

"This creates a rich, poetic linguistic culture," he said. "It creates a multidimensional culture where people are adept at picking up on nuances. On the other hand, it makes for bad political discourse. In political discourse people don't know what to trust."

It is not a crude ethnic joke or slur to talk about taarof, but a cultural reality that Iranians say stems from centuries under foreign occupation. Whether it was the Arabs, the Mongols or the French and the British, foreign hegemony taught Iranians the value of hiding their true face. The principle is also enshrined in the majority religion here, Shiite Islam, which in other lands is a minority religion, often at odds with the majority. There is a concept known as takiya in which Shiites are permitted, even encouraged, to hide their belief or faith to protect their life, honor or property.

"When you tell lies, it can save your life," said Muhammad Sanati, a social psychologist who lived for years in England before returning to Iran in 1982. "Then you can see the problem of language in this country."

Diplomacy everywhere is the art of not showing your hand, and if Iranians have shown skill at forcing negotiations over negotiations, or winning by stalling, it would be an overstatement to say that it can be explained solely by a culture of taarof. But Western diplomats based in Iran say that Iran's cultural foundation gives it a leg up when dealing with the more studied negotiating skills of the Americans.

Perhaps more important, such diplomats and Iranians themselves said, Americans need to understand Iran's approach to interpersonal communications in order to understand the complexities Iranians face in dealing with each other. Analyst after analyst said that after centuries of cloaking their true feelings, Iranians are often unsure whom they can trust when dealing with each other, let alone foreigners.

One Western diplomat, who insisted on anonymity because that is standard diplomatic protocol, said it was possible that when Iran said it could not respond before the end of August to the West's offer on its nuclear program, that it was not only a diplomatic maneuver, but may also have been a nod to the reality of internal Iranian politics. Major decisions on the nuclear issue involve consensus at the highest levels of the political elite. But consensus can be hard to achieve when interpersonal communications, at least initially, are defined by taarof, mistrust and different political agendas, the diplomat said.

At the same time, understanding the cultural/moral foundation of a community can also help Americans understand whether or not an agreement was actually reached, even when the Iranians seem to say that a deal is done. "You can translate words, but can you translate feelings?" asked Saeed Leylaz, a political analyst and former government official in Tehran. "British diplomats are more successful with us. They understand our ways and our culture."

Indeed, Americans and Iranians speak two different languages. Americans are pragmatists and word choice is often based on the shortest route from here to there. Iranians are poets and tend to use language as though it were paint, to be spread out, blended, swirled. Words can be presented as pieces in a puzzle, pieces that may or may not fit together neatly.

"In Iran, you praise people but you don't mean it," Dr. Sanati said. "You invite people for all sorts of things, and you don't mean it. You promise things, and you don't mean it. People who live here understand that."

Today, Iranians are expecting the United States to take the time to understand its culture. It has seen America fail the test of cultural translation in Iraq.

"It is up to America to understand us, because it is stronger," said Mr. Leylaz, the political analyst. There are differences of opinion about how much taarof, or indirection, or as some people call it, expediency, actually affects public discourse. People in Iran assume that when a politician offers something he knows he can't deliver, it is taarof. They don't call it a lie.

But what about when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sends a letter to President Bush. Is it sincere, or taarof? The letter has been interpreted by some Iranians as the president trying to follow the path of the Prophet Muhammad, who sent letters to his enemies, or of copying Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who sent a letter in 1989 to Mikhail Gorbachev. Some have called it naïve, or just bad politics. Certainly its import is unclear, but to all of these people, it seemed intended as a serious overture. Washington, in contrast, dismissed the letter as irrelevant because it did not address any of the substantial issues on the table. It wanted Tehran to be more direct.

Dr. Hadian, who was a childhood friend of the president, suggested a different approach: "If you talk to Ahmadinejad you have to consider taarof."

"Taarof is a sign of respect, even if we don't mean it."

Muhammad Atrianfar, publisher of the reform-minded daily newspaper Shargh, said Iranians find Americans easy to deal with because they are straightforward. That, he implied, could give Iranians an advantage in any negotiations. But for Americans to understand Iranians, he said, they must recognize that with Iranians, "the mind thinks something, the heart feels something else, the tongue says something else, and manners do something else.

"It doesn't mean people are lying," he said. "They are just dealing with you with a different character."

A must read.

Egypt Warns Against any Military Strike on Iran

The Scotsman:

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned against any military strike on Iran in an interview published on Saturday. The United Nations Security Council has demanded Iran suspend uranium enrichment by the end of the month after Tehran failed to persuade the international community its atomic scientists were working on power stations, not bombs.

Washington has declined to rule out military strikes as a solution to the nuclear dispute.

"The conflict between the United States and Iran must be resolved through diplomatic channels and direct dialogue, because any strike on Iran means the end of stability in the region and the world," Mubarak said in an interview published on Saturday in Egypt's Akhbar al-Youm newspaper. READ MORE

Iran has set itself an August 22 deadline to respond to an offer of economic incentives designed to persuade it to comply with the suspension demand.

Egypt has not had full diplomatic relations with Tehran in more than 25 years and high-level contacts are rare, usually limited to international meetings. But Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki came to Egypt last week for talks with Mubarak on the conflict in Lebanon and other regional issues.

In April, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit received a telephone call from Mottaki on the nuclear issue, and the ministers agreed to stay in touch.

"Iran is an important country in the region, and relations between countries are governed by pacts and treaties and agreements that prohibit interference in any internal matters of the countries," Mubarak said in the interview.

Egypt, one of 35 countries on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, says it is against any nuclear weapons in the Middle East, but wants the dispute resolved peacefully.

Relations between Egypt and Iran were severed when Cairo gave refuge to the deposed Shah of Iran, who died in Egypt. Over the years, the Egyptian government has repeatedly accused Iran of supporting underground Islamist groups.

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Arab Nations Pushing For New Peace Process with Israel

Dow Jones Newswires:

Worried the Lebanon war has given a boost to Iran and militants in the region, three U.S. allies in the Mideast are spearheading an Arab effort to present a plan for reviving the stalled peace process and talks with Israel.

Details remain sketchy, and already Israel has expressed skepticism, saying it doubts any plan the countries put forward would take into account its security needs. But the decision by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan to make the commitment now is a clear sign of how worried the countries are by current tensions and especially by Iran's new influence.

So far, the U.S. hasn't talked about a wider peace effort in the wake of the Lebanon crisis, instead focusing its efforts on ensuring the Iranian and Syrian- backed Hezbollah is reined in.

But leaders of the three moderate Arab governments want to seize the opportunity in the war's ashes to restart negotiations with Israel for peace on the Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese fronts. READ MORE

Even before the cease-fire took effect Monday, the three nations along with Arab League chief Amr Moussa warned that the fighting could permanently kill chances for any peace plan and fuel militants across the Middle East.

Hesham Youseef, Moussa's top aide, told The Associated Press on Thursday that the Arab countries are putting together a peace plan to present to the U.N. Security Council next month because they believe "we should build on the international concerns on what is going on in the whole area."

"Big crises sometimes create opportunities to find comprehensive solutions for difficult problems," he said, noting that the 1991 Gulf war led to Arabs and Israelis launching the Madrid peace talks, months after the war that expelled Saddam Hussein from Kuwait.

"The war in 1973 also led to peace," he said, referring to diplomacy after that Arab-Israeli conflict that eventually resulted in the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel.

Arab foreign ministers are to gather in Cairo on Sunday to pave the way for an Arab summit in Saudia Arabia planned for later this month. A new peace initiative will likely be high on the agenda, along with a Saudi plan to gather money to help rebuild Lebanon - and counter a flood of money from Iran to Hezbollah to finance reconstruction projects.

In meetings with Israeli and Lebanese officials last weekend, E.U. foreign policy chief Javier Solana spoke of the need to consolidate the Lebanon cease- fire, then work toward a comprehensive Middle East peace agreement.

Solana's "feeling is that we now need a big push, otherwise we shall see more fires breaking out in the future," a E.U. official told The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to make statements to the press.

Israel's defense minister, Amir Peretz, said last week that resumption of a dialogue with Syria and the Palestinians was possible. "Every war creates an opportunity for a new political process," he said.

But the chances of any real movement remain unclear.

Israel's U.N. Ambassador Dan Gillerman said Friday he had serious doubts that any Arab initiative "has a great chance of being a fair one that would take Israel's security concerns into consideration."

He said the 2003 road map plan put forward by the Bush administration remained "the only viable option."

The road map calls for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, though it has been stalled, with both sides failing to take steps to implement it.

Before anything else can happen, Israel says the international community must execute the terms of the cease-fire outlined in U.N. resolution 1701, to ensure that Hezbollah is disarmed and that the flow of Syrian and Iranian arms and equipment to the guerrillas is halted.

"We think that anything that would take attention away from 1701 would play into the hands of Iran and Syria," said Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev.

The Bush administration, highly critical of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, is also likely to push for full implementation of the cease-fire deal before anything else. And that process is tricky and could be lengthy.

It is still not known how a new Arab peace effort would differ from past ones. In 2001, Saudi Arabia put forward a plan that would call for peace between Israel and all Arab nations once it returns the Golan Heights, West Bank and other Arab lands seized in past wars. The Arab League endorsed the plan, but Israel rejected it.

Youssef said the new Arab peace effort would build on both the road map and the 2001 plan. "We will not start from scratch. We just want to refocus on the real issue - a just and comprehensive peace," he said.

The Arab countries' motivation is clear: With Hezbollah and its backers Syria and Iran declaring victory in the nearly month-long war that left most of south Lebanon in ruins, many see a looming struggle over the future of the Middle East.

Moderate Arab nations fear that letting the situation stagnate without restarting the peace process could increase the appeal of radical Muslim groups and allow Iran and Syria to keep using Hezbollah in proxy wars, in turn breeding more militancy.

The split between Syria and other Arab states has only grown deeper since the Lebanon cease-fire. Syrian President Bashar Assad jabbed fellow Arabs with a speech on Tuesday, saying the war had revealed the "half men" in the region - prompting sizzling denunciations of Assad in Arab media.

"We are facing a new reality established by the Israeli war on Lebanon. It is an aftershock, but probably even more powerful than the earthquake itself and even more painful," Abdul-Rahman al-Rashid, who is close to the Saudi royal family, wrote Wednesday in the Saudi-owned Asharq Al Awsat.

`Blow of Zolfaqar' Wargames Begin in Southeastern Iran

Islamic Republic News Agency:

The Iranian armed forces began their first stage of massive wargames code-named `Blow of Zolfaqar' along border areas of this southeastern province Saturday morning.

Zolfaqar, the sword of Imam Ali (AS), the first Imam of the Household of the Holy Prophet (S), is a symbol of power and courage for Shi'ite Muslims.

Various units of air-support Army chinook helicopters, unmanned planes, parachutists, electronic war units and special forces are participating in the maneuver. READ MORE

"Army commandos, parachutists, mobile shoulder-firing units, electronic war forces and rapid reaction units enjoying high combat capability will demonstrate their readiness during the wargames," spokesman of the maneuver Brigadier General Kiumars Heidari told IRNA earlier on Friday.

He added that the wargames are aimed at improving and updating the Army's tactics.

Iran Has 'Blood on its Hands' MacKay Says

Mike Blanchfield, National Post:

With a potential international showdown looming next week in Iran's nuclear standoff with the West, Foreign Affairs Minister Peter MacKay says Tehran has "blood on its hands" for backing Hezbollah in its recent war against Israel.

In an interview with CanWest News Service, Mr. MacKay highlighted Iran's support of Hezbollah and its nuclear ambitions, which will be back in the international spotlight on Tuesday -- the symbolic date in the Muslim calendar chosen by the Islamic regime to reply to UN demands to end its suspected nuclear weapons program.

"They [Iran] are certainly behind much of the difficulty that's going on in the region by funding Hezbollah, by supporting them in terms of their activities against Israel. They have a great deal of responsibility and blood on their hands from their activities," he said. READ MORE

Mr. MacKay said he saw a "glimmer of hope" this week Tehran might consider halting its uranium enrichment program, although he's not holding his breath.

Iran says it needs nuclear energy to provide electricity, but the West suspects it of trying to create a nuclear bomb.

The United States says it wants the United Nations to move swiftly to impose sanctions if Iran fails to halt uranium enrichment by Aug. 31, the deadline set by the UN Security Council for Tehran to respond to an incentive package offered by the West.

"I think this is one of the more ominous and looming concerns that everyone should be focused on," Mr. MacKay said.

"Of course, we've been very much caught up with what's been happening in the Middle East, but Iran, it's fair to say, has been described an agent provocateur."

Mr. MacKay also pointed to Syria as "a conduit for Iran to perpetrate much of this mischief."

Israel and the United States are concerned Iran and Syria may try to resupply Hezbollah with weapons after the ceasefire in its 34-day war with Israel. Syria is thought to have acted as one of the main supply routes for weapons used by Hezbollah during the war.

Manouchehr Mottaki, the Iranian Foreign Minister, suggested his country might be ready to agree on suspension of uranium enrichment.

"We are ready to negotiate over all issues stated in the proposed package," he said this week.

"One of the points in the package is the issue of suspension. We are ready to negotiate over all issues, including suspension."

Mr. Mottaki's conciliatory tone contrasts with the continued refusal of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to stop enrichment and his fiery support of Hezbollah.

"I have reservations about Iran's intentions for obvious reasons. At this point I think the Foreign Minister's statement is -- I would describe it as a glimmer of hope -- and let's hope that they follow through on their word," Mr. MacKay said.

The Coming Wars

Caroline Glick, The Jerusalem Post:

Since the cease-fire was implemented in Lebanon, we have heard scattered reports indicating that a prisoner swap with the Palestinians may be in the works. In exchange for hundreds if not thousands of Palestinian terrorists now held in Israeli prisons, IDF Cpl. Gilad Shalit, who has been held hostage by Palestinian terrorists for nearly two months, may be released from captivity.

These reports lend weight to the view that things are back to normal. Terrorists kidnap Israelis and hold them hostage and Israel releases terrorists in order to free them. It is a comforting thought for people like Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his colleagues and the members of Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz's General Staff who continue to believe that it will be possible for Israel to sign on a dotted line and achieve "a normal existence." Unfortunately, the chance that Shalit will be released is almost as small as the chance that Israel will be able to achieve a "normal existence." Palestinian sources explain that the decision of whether or not to release Shalit is firmly in the hands of the Iranians and Syrians, and they are not in any mood to horse trade with the Jews.

Today the Palestinian Authority is nothing more than yet another Iranian proxy. During the past month of war in Lebanon, it was the supposedly moderate Fatah terror group and the supposedly moderate Fatah-led Palestinian security forces that organized mass rallies in the streets of Ramallah and Gaza cheering on Hizbullah and calling for Hassan Nasrallah to bomb Tel Aviv.

Now, in the aftermath of the cease-fire, which handed Hizbullah and its state sponsors Syria and Iran the greatest victory in their history, forces in the PA are actively preparing for a new round of war against Israel. As Hamas spokesmen have put it, Israel's defeat in Lebanon has convinced them that it is possible to adopt Hizbullah's methods to destroy the Jewish state. Amid false reports that he was planning to dissolve the Hamas government and replace it with a government of technocrats, Abbas went to Gaza on Monday morning and asked Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh if Fatah could join his government.

As instructed by his commanders in Teheran and Damascus, Haniyeh has not yet agreed to Abbas's offer. Rather he set humiliating conditions which Abbas must accept first. Abbas already agreed to Hamas's demand that he allow the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization to also join the government. He is similarly expected to agree to Hamas's demands that Fatah join the government as a junior partner and that it abandon its negotiations with Israel.

Throughout the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian areas of Judea and Samaria, the Palestinians are gearing up for their next round of jihad with Israel. As was the case six years ago, they are beginning with public executions of Palestinians accused of helping Israel combat terrorism. Just this week, a crowd of hundreds hooted and stomped their feet in ecstasy as unmasked murderers killed one such Palestinian "collaborator" in Jenin.

So while all eyes are glued on Lebanon, the Palestinians may well start the next war. And we know exactly how that war will look. They will use missiles, mortars and rockets that they will smuggle in from Egypt to kill Israelis in their homes in the South. They will infiltrate Israeli cities by digging tunnels under the security fence around Gaza, and from Egypt and from towns and cities in Judea and Samaria and murder us in ever growing numbers. They will receive money, weapons and combat instruction from Hizbullah and Iranian operatives in Gaza and abroad and they will attack us while protesting their everlasting dedication to jihad and their anger over Israel's "aggression."

Then there is Syria. Syrian President Bashar Assad's address Tuesday was a watershed event. After 14 years of beating around the bush, Syria finally came clean. Peace, Assad said, is dead. We hate Israel and we want to destroy it. If not us, then our children will destroy it. All the Arabs that want peace with Israel are traitors. Long live Hizbullah and we're going to war to conquer the Golan Heights as a first step towards destroying Israel.

So Syria is planning to attack us. Perhaps it will do so while Hizbullah is carrying out what Nasrallah called the "building and reconstruction jihad" where with Iranian funding Hizbullah will rebuild Lebanon for the Lebanese and so nail one more nail in the coffin of the Lebanese nation state and move 10 steps ahead in the Iranian colonization of Lebanon. Yes, while Hizbullah goes forward with Lebanese reconstruction, and with Iranian and Syrian assistance reequips and upgrades its arsenal of war and rebuilds its force structure, Syria will likely open a new front on the Golan Heights.

Like the Palestinians, the Syrians will be following the Hizbullah model. Assad knows that his antiquated conventional forces are incapable of conquering and holding the Golan Heights. But, if Israel fights Syria the same way it just fought Hizbullah, then that doesn't matter. Syria, with its arsenal of Scud missiles whose range covers the entire country and armed with its chemical and biological arsenals that can act in the best case as a deterrent force, will be able to kill thousands in not tens of thousands of Israeli civilians and soldiers in the coming battle and cause property and economic damage to the tune of tens of billions of dollars.

Syria believes that it will be able to cause sufficient damage to make Israel sue for a cease-fire as we just did with Hizbullah. So like Hizbullah, Syria expects to gain at the UN Security Council what it could never hope to achieve on the battlefield. Specifically, given the precedent of Resolution 1701, Syria no doubt believes that in exchange for its aggression, it will receive international recognition for its territorial demands against Israel; an international force on the Golan Heights that will make it difficult for Israel to respond to future attacks; a major upgrade in its international profile; and billions of dollars in international assistance to rebuild in the wake of any damage caused to Syrian infrastructures by IDF operations.

Behind the Palestinians and the Syrians lies Iran, the guiding light behind the present jihad. Iran, with its burgeoning nuclear weapons program, is the single greatest danger to international security. It is the single greatest danger to Israel's survival. To date, Iran has made do with fighting Israel through its proxies, to great advantage. But Iran has made it absolutely clear that it intends to join the fray directly - when it is good and ready. And of course it will be good and ready when it has nuclear weapons.

If Iran is allowed to attain nuclear weapons, there is no reason to doubt that it will use them. If Iran attacks Israel with nuclear weapons, then of course we are looking at a future war scenario involving not thousands of dead, but millions.

As all of Israel's leaders have been quick to point out over the years, the threat of a nuclear armed Iran is not just dangerous for Israel but for the entire world. Iran has its Persian Gulf neighbors in its gun sites. It has directly threatened the US and Europe.

Although this is true, the fact that Iran is a threat to the entire world does not give Israel the ability to shirk from its responsibility to contend directly with Iran. Doing so would be tantamount to signing the death warrant of the Jewish people.

In the not so distant future, we will find ourselves at war with Iran. Today, the choice of whether we fight that war in our own time, and before Iran gets nuclear weapons is in our hands. If we hesitate, if we and the rest of the free world waste precious time with worthless diplomatic wrangling with the ayatollahs, war will come to us, but on the enemy's terms. And we will have only ourselves to blame.

All of these future wars present us with a clear challenge as a country. We must prepare for war. This means, that technologically, we must engage in a crash program to find means to protect our cities from missile attack. We got off relatively easy this time. Hizbullah chose not to attack our industrial centers but showed it has the ability to do so through its missile attacks near Haifa's port and its attacks near Hadera's power plant. READ MORE

Militarily, we must not relent in targeting our enemies. The IDF must target every Palestinian terrorist. It must reassert control over the international border between Gaza and Egypt. Israel must accept the reality that the PA is a terrorist organization, not a legitimate regime, and stop viewing Abbas and his associates in Fatah as potential peace partners. Obviously, Israel must give up the idea of transferring Judea and Samaria to Palestinian control and take all necessary measures to stabilize the situation on the ground in a manner that neutralizes the threat of Palestinian jihad.

Furthermore, the war in Lebanon exposed the results of years of neglect of the IDF reserve forces. These forces must be properly equipped, properly trained for war, and properly led. The talk of releasing men from reserve duty at 35 must be abandoned. The IDF has to accept that it is a fighting force in war. Commanders have to stop acting like yuppies in uniform and understand that they have a war to train for and fight and win.

Finally, Israel needs a political leadership that will be capable of telling the Israeli public the truth that has been ignored for the past decade and a half. We are not a "normal" nation and we are not going to get peace in the coming years. We are an abnormal nation in our neighborhood and in the world and will always remain so, as is our right. Our people must be ready to sacrifice for the survival of the state and the defense of our freedom to be abnormal. We need leadership that will tell the Israeli people that a struggle awaits us but that our democracy, our freedom, and our values give us the power of creative thought that will allow us to beat the dull forces of jihad that surround us.

In response to Assad's speech on Tuesday, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said that Assad has to decide if he's on the side of peace or on the side of war. Defense Minister Amir Peretz outdid even that when he said that now that the war is over, it is time for Israel to get down to the real business of peace and to set the conditions for a renewal of the peace negotiations with Syria.

In so responding to Assad's unequivocal warmongering, our leaders again have shown us that they have learned nothing and are incapable of learning anything from the disaster into which they led us with Hizbullah in Lebanon. There is no missile that is capable of penetrating their walls of self-deception and delusion. They are blind and deaf to all evidence that their way of appeasement has failed.

With the Olmert government's stubborn insistence that Israel won the war it just lost, with the General Staff's absurd statements that the mission was successful, it is clear that both our political and military leadership must be replaced as quickly as possible. Our enemies give us no time for hesitation. They plan their next wars in broad daylight as our leaders squawk in the darkness of their ideological stupor.