Saturday, July 02, 2005

Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [6/26-7/2] major news events regarding Iran.

Iran's new President elect - Ahmadinejad Who Is He?
Ahmadinejad: the first terrorist President?
Ahmandinejad and The Hostage Photo Controversy:
Ahmandinejad and the Hostages:
Iran's Presidential Elections, evidence of massive fraud:
Iran's Presidential Elections, analysis:
The power struggle inside of Iran:
Iran's military:
Iran's nuclear negotiations:
The Iranian Economy:
US Policy and Iran:
Human Rights/Freedom of the press inside of Iran:
Popular struggle for freedom inside of Iran:
Popular support outside of Iran for the pro-democracy efforts inside of Iran:
Can you believe this?
Iranian bloggers:
Must Read reports:
The Experts:
Photos and cartoons of the week:
And finally, The Quote of the Week:

In a press conference carried live by CNN and the BCC, Ahmadinejad dismissed questions about human rights and nuclear issues by saying:

"these discussions have worn thin and are offensive."

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:53:00 PM  

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 7.2.2005:

Iran's New Leader Suspected in '89 Attack

William J. Kole, The Associated Press:
Austrian authorities have classified documents suggesting that Iran's president-elect may have played a key role in the 1989 execution-style slayings of an Iranian Kurdish leader and two associates in Vienna, a newspaper reported Saturday.

Austria's Interior Ministry and the public prosecutor's office are investigating alleged evidence pointing to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's possible involvement in the attack, the daily Der Standard reported. READ MORE
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:37:00 PM  

How Iran's reformers lost their political way

Scott Peterson, The Christian Science Monitor:
The Nobel Peace Prize winner could not be more emphatic about the election that swept Iran's hard-liners into the president's office a week ago.

"Nothing has changed in Iran," says human rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi, her gaze unwavering as she sits in her modest basement office in Tehran. "Those who were in power are still in power. Why should it get better? If it's been bad up to now, it's going to be bad from now on."

Iran's unelected supreme religious leader still wields ultimate authority; and hard-line ideologues and militants have successfully blocked, sometimes violently, popular efforts to reform.

But while that political dynamic may not have changed, the movement that propelled outgoing President Mohamad Khatami to his first landslide victory in 1997 - borne upon promises of democracy, respect for human rights, and more social freedom - is now unrecognizable.

Divided and now deeply resented, the reform camp has disintegrated, analysts say, and is out of touch with Iranians who now rate rhetoric about freedom below solutions to grave economic problems. Analysts, in fact, no longer speak of a reform "movement" at all, but say that it has collapsed into an agenda with little direction that will drive it into the future. READ MORE

"I think you have to have bread in the first place, to eat, and talk of freedom next," says Mrs. Ebadi, who has taken on some of the most politically sensitive cases in Iran. "But can [president-elect Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad give bread to the people? The president does not have much power."

Those limits have been made clear during the tenure of Mr. Khatami, who, many argue, became part of the problem for not standing up, early in his presidency, when challenged by the hard-line judiciary and security services who shut down newspapers and jailed opponents.

"Khatami did not provide leadership for the reformists - he was more like a spokesman, and no one else had the authority or the mandate to lead," says Nasser Hadian-Jazy, a US-educated political scientist at Tehran University.

"This election shows reformists out of touch with their constituents, and shows that people can't eat human rights and democracy," says Mr. Hadian-Jazy. "[I]t is no longer a movement ... its natural evolution will be to a social democratic party. But they need grass-roots organization, because they have lost touch with the people."

One reformist candidate, former parliament speaker Mehdi Karrubi, nearly made it past Mr. Ahmadinejad into the second-round runoff, largely on a pledge to hand out $60 per person per month.

But that was the only reformist nod to economic malaise. The campaigns of candidates across the spectrum - except for that of Ahmadinejad - sought to out-reform each other. That political reading could not have been more wrong.

"This election brought an unprecedented broadening of political dialogue; a lot of red lines were crossed," says Karim Sadjadpour, of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group. "But that doesn't mean [reform] will cease to be an elite movement. So how do you fill that gap between reform and the people, and transfer this into a popular movement?"

"Now you have tens of millions of Iranians who share the ideals of reform, but feel they have no political representation," says Mr. Sadjadpour. "The Iranian street is like a sleeping elephant: this enormous reservoir of energy and will for political, cultural, and social reform that is not being tapped into right now."

Hoping to reassure reform-leaning voters, Ahmadinejad has begun to temper a radical outlook. As Tehran mayor, he converted cultural centers into mosques. But his culture adviser, Mehdi Kalhor, this week went further than even reformists dared.

When asked about rumors of installing curtains on sidewalks to separate men from women, Mr. Kalhor scoffed, saying that Ahmadinejad "wants everyone to be joyful," and that his efforts aim to "prevent the government from interfering in private lives."

Press clampdowns were over, Kalhor promised. He endorsed freedom of live music - which has been tightly controlled - and the return to Iran of singers and actors who play now-illegal music from exile. Satellite dishes - also illegal - are "inseparable from people's lives," he said, and women are "free to choose their dress."

But Kalhor retreated later, saying, "these are not the words of the president," even as a hard-line parliamentarian called for a "cultural revolution" to counter greater openness, and said the president should crack down on "badly veiled" women wearing "unIslamic and immoral cloth."

Ebadi is in a good position to test any change, if it comes. Her image and voice have been banned from TV for two decades. When she won the Nobel Prize, state-run TV ignored it until mounting complaints led to a brief mention 24 hours later, in an 11 p.m. broadcast. Hard-liners criticized her for shaking the hand of the man who gave her the Nobel prize.

People may need bread before freedom, Ebadi says, but one can help gain the other. "The reformists did not forget [the economy], but they had no power," she adds, adjusting her multicolored head scarf. "They cared about freedom of speech very much, and if there is enough of it, you can reveal the economic problems and corruption - so the bread will come."

posted by Anonymous @ 7/02/2005 06:00:00 PM  

Yosef Azizi Banitrouf freed on bail after 68 days in prison

Reporters Without Borders:
Reporters Without Borders today welcomed the release of Yosef Azizi Banitrouf on 28 June on payment of 25,000 dollars in bail but pointed out that four other journalists are still imprisoned in Iran. Banitrouf had been arrested at his home on 25 April. READ MORE

"His release is very good news but we must not forget that four other journalists are still being held in Evin prison in very harsh conditions, that one of them, Akbar Gangi, has been on hunger strike for the past 19 days, and all of them urgently need appropriate medical treatment," the organisation said.

Iranian journalists are constantly subject to arbitrary measures ranging from newspaper bans to imprisonment, Reporters Without Borders said. "The new government must put a stop to the arrest and illegal detention of intellectuals and journalists," the organisation urged.

Banitrouf worked for the daily Hamshari for 12 years but was recently fired by the ultra-conservatives who took over the newspaper's management. Since then he has contributed to several other news media.

posted by Anonymous @ 7/02/2005 05:57:00 PM  

State Dept.: Photo not Iran's president

WebIndia:
The State Department has concluded that Iran's president-elect is not the student militant seen in a photograph from the 1979 takeover of the U.S. embassy.

A department official told the Los Angeles Times analysts found differences in bone structure and facial features between the bearded radical of 1979 and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the conservative mayor of Tehran who won an upset victory in the recent election.

One of the hostages who spent 444 days imprisoned in the embassy had said he recognized Ahmadinejad.

The official told the Times investigators are still trying to determine if the president-elect was involved in the seizure of the embassy, something he denies.

posted by Anonymous @ 7/02/2005 05:44:00 PM  

Whose Side Are They On? Dept: Iran's Election

Joe Katzman, WindsOfChange.net:

Gateway Pundit notes that leftist American think tanks are fawning over the mullahs' phony election. Take a pratfall of shame, Institute for Policy Studies. Because, you know, when woman-hating, gay-bashing, crony capitalist Islamofascists veto vast numbers of candidates, rig what's left, and lie about voter non-attendance - it's time for every good leftist to swallow that at face value, talk about the positives, minimize anything too blatant to deny, and bash America.

Note, too, that IPS begins its latest Iraq talking points with "Anti-war organizing that began within days of September 11th and kicked into high gear in the run-up to Bush's war in Iraq is paying off...."

Anti-war? No. Just on the other side.

I should note here that I had added the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to this post. An analysis at their site has merit on second reading, but their quoted spokesperson in Gateway Pundit's article seems to be way off the beam. Trouble is, I need the news link for that to see the full context. So, I've changed my stance to "reserve judgment" and written to GP.

UPDATE: Got the CEIP quote context, or at least the news report URL, from GP, who has incorporated it into his article. On review, this is a clear example of idiotarianism, but not aid and comfort per IPS. Meanwhile, here's an article that adds further weight to the idea that the CEIP's written analysis may be on to something. So the good news, they aren't complete idiots.

posted by Anonymous @ 7/02/2005 05:43:00 PM  

Hajarian recognizes the guy in the photo

Yahoo News:
A top former secret agent Saeed Hajjarian points to a copy of a photograph which shows a U.S. hostage and an Iranian during the 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, in his office on Saturday, July 2, 2005. Hajjarian said Saturday a hostage taker alleged to be Iran's ultraconservative president-elect was a militant-turned dissident who later committed suicide in jail. READ MORE

'This man is Taqi Mohammadi, a militant who later turned into a dissident and committed suicide in jail,' Saeed Hajjarian, a top adviser to outgoing President Mohammad Khatami told The Associated Press, Saturday, pointing to the photo of a man alleged to be Ahmadinejad.
Update: for more on Saeed Hajjarian, read, The Origins of Iran's Reformist Elite.

posted by Anonymous @ 7/02/2005 05:32:00 PM  

In Iran, emotion over embassy takeover has faded

Boston.com:
For Iranians, fervor over the 1979 US Embassy takeover -- a central event in their stormy Islamic Revolution -- has faded. If the country's new president participated, he would be one of many former hostage-takers who entered politics.

Many of the organizers of the embassy seizure are now leading advocates of democratic reform and closer ties with the United States. READ MORE

The election of hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sealed the end of an era in which former hostage-takers held key positions in the government and parliament. Most of them have already lost their posts in the backlash by Iran's clerical regime or will leave with the outgoing pro-reform president.

The official Iranian media were silent yesterday about demands by President Bush on Thursday that the new president explain his role in the embassy seizure. After seeing Ahmadinejad in photos or on television, six former hostages said they believe he was among the hostage-takers. One American said Ahmadinejad helped interrogate him.

The state news agency, radio and television made no mention of Bush's comments. Iranian newspapers do not publish on Fridays, a weekend day in Iran. Ahmadinejad's aides have denied he had a role.

The students who carried out the embassy takeover said Ahmadinejad didn't participate in the taking or holding of 52 American hostages for 444 days.
If he had been involved, Ahmadinejad likely would have played it up in his presidential campaign to increase his appeal to hard-liners, said Abbas Abdi, one of the student leaders. ''If he had played any sort of role in any part of it, he would have used that 1,000 times in the past 25 years to take advantage of it," Abdi said.

While a traumatic event for Americans, the embassy seizure and the revolution that surrounded it were, for Iranians, similar to the 1960s in the United States and Europe: a turbulent period that forged today's leaders.

Many young Iranians have little interest in the incident.

''I was a little kid when the embassy seizure happened," said Reza Hosseinpour, a Tehran shopkeeper in his late 20s. ''I don't want to hear about it anymore. It's part of the past history. There has been enough hostility between Iran and America."

In past years, the annual celebrations to mark the Nov. 4, 1979 embassy seizure have attracted crowds only in the hundreds.

The students that carried out the takeover were supporters of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Shi'ite theologian who became Iran's supreme leader and imposed an Islamic government. The students seized the embassy to protest the US refusal to hand over Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Iranian leader who had been ousted from power that year.

Over the past decade, many of the students formed the core of the Iranian reform movement that sought the loosening of the theocracy's hold on power and contacts with the United States.

Many, like Abdi, are members of the Islamic Iran Participation Front, the largest reformist party, which helped bring outgoing pro-reform president Mohammad Khatami to power in 1997.

posted by Anonymous @ 7/02/2005 05:29:00 PM  

The Agenda the G8 should have

Stefania, The American Thinker:
On Tuesday, July 6, the leaders of the eight most powerful nations will meet in Scotland to take stock of the world and debate about what is still to be done on issues such as the fight against mass poverty and terrorism.

Simultaneously, hundreds of anti-globalization protesters will march against what they see to be the cause of all evils: global trade and capitalism. These people seem to ignore how world politics works and what is being discussed at the G8 summits.

The leaders of the richest nations - who have been elected through free and fair elections - will renew their commitment to fight terror and discuss debt relief toward the poorest countries.

These are the noblest of goals. However wrong the strategies to pursue them may be.

A list of the countries to be relived of at least some debt was released two weeks ago. While most of those nations are ruled by more or less democratically-elected leaders, committed to political and economic liberalization, the list includes African nations that are ruled by corrupt autocrats.

What some G8 leaders, as well as anti-globalization protesters, overlook is that debt relief directed to those undemocratic nations will end up enriching the local autocrats - who will buy weapons and will declare war on their own people and neighbors.

The ultimate victims will be the poor people the G8 leaders wish to help. Neither food and economic aid, nor worldwide Live 8 concerts have done anything truly important to defeat poverty.

Debt relief should be directed only to those nations who are:

• ruled by accountable and democratic leaders;
• who are committed to fighting corruption;
• who open their economies to free market and free trade;
• who promote peaceful civil societies, not ethnic or religious strife.

Even among those nations meeting the test, the rich nations must really monitor how the money and aid will be used. Free money is inherently corrupting in a poor society. It is a dangerous drug, and it is irresponsible to prescribe it without close supervision to counteract negative side effects.

While discussing on how to reduce poverty and help the countries and peoples in need, the G8 leaders should commit themselves to promote democracy and self-government in Africa. They should help strengthen the newborn democracies like Senegal, Nigeria and a few others.

Don't expect that the G8 will do any of this. Don’t expect any word on the subject from moral leader Nelson Mandela, whose country - and he himself - endorsed these brutal policies in the name of "respecting the internal affairs of sovereign nations."

Fighting terrorism will be surely one of the hottest topics. Every G8 leader agrees that the ultimate goal is the defeat of the Islamist terror. But there are deep differences between the US and the European countries on how to reach that goal.

While the U.S. has since long time realized that the spread of democracy in the Middle East is the key to defeat terror, the Europeans still think that only by resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - no matter how the Arab and Middle Eastern tyrants treat their own citizens - will peace be assured for the world as a whole.

Europe seems to ignore the fact that in the last 25 years, the Islamic Republic of Iran is the main exporter of terror worldwide, and the major obstacle to the peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

We can always hope that finally the Europeans will see the threat posed by the Islamic Republic's Mullahs. Sadly, it has taken 25 years and the selection of Ahmadinejad by the "Supreme Leader" Ali Khamenei, disguised as an election, to understand - if they really do even now - that it's high time to take concrete action against the regime.

The G8 leaders should say publicly what they intend to do with respect to Iran.

If they really want to defeat the threat posed by the Mullahs' deadly plans, they have to stand with the people of Iran. There is no need to invade the country and nobody seems to want do so. These are some of the things they (in particular the U.S.) might decide to do: READ MORE

1) Impose new and strengthen existing economic and diplomatic sanctions against the regime;
2) Expel all of the regime's agents and lobbyists from the Western soil;
3) Approve pro-democracy resolutions, such as the Iran Freedom and Democracy Act;
4) Increase the funds directed to the non-violent, democratic and secular Iranian opposition groups, both inside and outside Iran;
5) Organize meetings with the Iranian dissidents, just as President Bush did when he met with dissidents from Venezuela, Burma and other countries;
6) Support the Iranian opposition's aspirations to an internationally-monitored genuine referendum, which would be held only after the fall of the regime and would establish true democracy, based on the total separation of religion and state;
7) Increase the funds directed to the US-based Iranian satellite TV and radio stations which promote these aspirations and goals;
8) Help prevent jamming of satellite programs by the Islamic regime - helped by friends and allies as Castro's Cuba;
9) Impose fines on all US and European companies doing or trying to do business in Iran;
10) Increase the pressure on the EU countries in order to further isolate the regime - diplomatically and economically. That includes closing all the regime's embassies and consulates abroad;
11) Announce that Regime Change (by the Iranian people, but with the West's moral and economic support ) is the official policy of the US and its allies.

The G8 summit should make it clear that it intends to help promote and spread democracy wherever it is lacking. It should condemn, not endorse, rigged and sham "elections" such as those held recently in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Palestinian Authority.

Elections without democracy are meaningless and often serve the local tyrants strengthening their grip on power and prolonging the suffering of their citizens. Instead of supporting the alleged "change from within", the Western powers must encourage the removal of those tyrants by secularist opposition groups.

Democracy and the basic human rights, not simply food and debt relief, will make poverty and terror history.

Stefania Lapenna is an Italian activist and author of the weblog Free Thoughts

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 12:14:00 PM  

The National Leadership Assembly for Opposition to IRI

Iman Foroutan of Iran of Tomorrow Movement sent me the following declaration and introduction.
Finally, after 3 years of hard work and following the May 1st Washington Conference, we have been able to form the first National Leadership Assembly for Opposition to IRI.

This Assembly, not yet formalized and sworn in, now has 50 candidates from 8 countries including Iran (including the Mohammadi brothers, political prisoners plus 7 more). As per the protocol proposed in the Washington Conference, the candidates are individuals representing the majority of the IRI opposition spectrum (Pro monarchy, pro-republic, Pan Iranist, Jebheye Melli, Ashayer Bakhtiari, …) and all social groups, e.g. students, technocrats, teachers, university professors, military people, health specialist, journalists, political scientists, etc.
Below is the first official statement of this group. The deadline for candidate registration is July 19, 2005.
DECLARATION No. 1

June 29, 2005

Subject: Lack of legitimacy of Islamic Republic of Iran and its elections READ MORE

Honorable _______________,

After years of non-unified an uncoordinated struggles of Iranian freedom fighters, the National Assembly of IRI Opposition Leadership has been established representing freedom lovers and political activists from inside and outside of Iran. The goal of this Assembly is to support the people of Iran in replacing the IRI with a democratic and secular type of government. This Assembly requests your attention and the attention of organizations under your supervision to the reasons of illegitimacy of IRI and its recent so-called “Presidential elections”.

1. The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, immediately after its formation in 1979, formed “The Assembly of The Elite” or “Khobregan” to write the Constitutional Law. However, the term of this assembly expired prior to the completion of this law. After its disassembly, the Constitutional Law was written and completed with Khomeini’s will only!

The basis and many of the articles in this Constitutional Law are in contradiction with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Within this Law, the power of government comes from God and the representative of God is the religious supreme leader (now Khamenei). The will of the people has been discounted.

(Actions like stoning, amputations of hands and feet, gouging of eyes, public execution, execution of members of opposition groups and killing non-Moslems, all are legal in Iran based on this Law. Refer to articles two, four, five, twelve and thirteen of the IRI constitution).

Within the composition of this Law, President is a ceremonial title, and only the supreme leader (Velayat Faghih, i.e. Khamenei) is the head of the regime with all and endless powers. Therefore, any type of election in Iran is in fact a setup for international propaganda and purely a sham.

In IRI Constitution, the supreme leader establishes an organization called Council of Guardians. This Council not only has to approve the Parliament’s proclamations, but also has to approve the candidates for presidency. Accordingly, in the recent presidential elections, from among one thousand and fourteen presidential candidates, the Guardian Council selected at first six candidates and then due to the order of the Velayat Faghih, added two more.

Based on different reports, which will be presented upon request, the most important reasons to prove the illegitimacy of this so-called election are as follows:

a) Most of the Iranian people rejected the elections and even stayed home in order to avoid being forced to go to the polls;

b) The minimum age requirement to vote was reduced from sixteen to fourteen;

c) The use of food coupons and admission in high school, college and university examinations required a seal on one’s birth certificate indicating that the person had participated in the elections;

d) Threatening hospitalized patients that if they did not vote, they would not receive their medications and other services;

e) Threatening government employees that if they did not vote, they would lose their jobs;

f) Increasing the hours of voting during the last minutes of the election day and transporting regime agents by bus from one polling place to others in order to increase the number of votes;

g) Printing more than three million birth certificates with fake names and announcing that birth certificates without pictures would also be accepted as well as passports;

h) Cheating in counting of votes which caused different voting results being announced by the Guardian Council and the Interior Ministry.

Note: According to the IRI Constitutional Law, women and members of other religions except for Islamic Shiites are not allowed to be candidates for presidency.

The “selection” of a well known killer, Mahmood Ahmadinejad, as the President-elect of IRI, one whose past, behavior, and fanaticism is no less than Molla Omar of Afghanistan, obliges the world community to assist the people of Iran in a much more serious manner in order to prevent further spread of religious terrorism.

Ahmadinejad had been personally involved in the assassination of many freedom loving activists such as Dr. Sharafkandi and his colleagues in the Mikonos Restaurant in Berlin, Germany. Ahmadinejad himself has claimed to be proud of personally releasing the last bullet in the heads and bodies of many political prisoners. According to available documents and photos, Ahmadinejad was one of the hostage takers at the American Embassy in Tehran in 1980.

The National Assembly of IRI Opposition Leadership, with membership from representatives of all Iranian social and political groups, from both inside and outside Iran, hereby presents its appreciation to all world leaders and political figures such as President George W. Bush and Ms. Dr. Condoleezza Rice, who have supported the struggle of the Iranian people for Democracy and Human Rights. Meanwhile, we expect and appreciate the support of all other political leaders and human right fighters, especially the European Union, to join the people of Iran in their fight for Democracy and their freedom from oppression.

Respectfully,

Mr. Reza Kermani, Temporary President - Iran
Ms. Homa Ehsan, Temporary Vice President – USA
Dr. Kourosh Sadri, Temporary Spokesman – Italy
Mr. Kiumars Farhoumand, Temporary Secretary – Sweden
Mr. Mohammad Ghassem Amin, Temporary Treasurer– USA

For more information call:

Dr. Iman Foroutan, Executive Director, Iran of Tomorrow Movement
imanf@sosiran.com

Office: 818-986-0200 Fax: 818-474-7229
24-hour Message Center: 888-SOS-IRAN
www.sosiran.com

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:41:00 AM  

Iran to Deliver a Missile Blow to Azerbaijan

Asim Oku, AIA Turkish and Caucasian section:
In case of Baku's consent to the accommodation of American military bases in the republic, Iran plans to deliver a preventive missile strike on the territory of Azerbaijan, Jelal Muhammedi, a confidant of the new Iranian leader, said in his interview to the Azerbaijan newspaper, "Mirror". Muhammedi, being an ethnic Azerbaijanian, in the past held the post of editor-in-chief of the Iranian periodical, "Misag" (Tabriz), and is known for his close connections with authorities.

During the elections, he actively supported Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. READ MORE

The new president of Iran worked in the local authorities of Iranian Azerbaijan in the 1990s. At that time he got acquainted with one of the most outstanding journalists of this region, Muhammedi. Jelal, at that time played and today continues to play a rather active role in the formation of Iranian policy concerning Azerbaijan. Especially, he has proved himself adept at secret relations between Tehran and the representatives of the intellectual elite of Baku, and, primarily, with journalists.

It is highly probable that after Ahmadinejad's election, Muhammedi may become one of the key figures in formulating Tehran's policy towards Azerbaijan.

Muhammedi claims that a sharp deterioration of Iran-Azerbaijan attitudes may occur in the near future for two reasons: accommodation of the US military bases in Azerbaijan and support by Baku of separatist moods in Iranian Azerbaijan.

Muhammedi emphasized that in both cases Tehran is capable of taking not only adequate reciprocal measures, but also may be drawn to actions of a preventive character.

En Route to Baku

What might be the Iranian reaction to Ilham Aliev's consent to place a US military contingent in the republic was mentioned above. Speaking about the destructive consequences of a missile blow, Muhammedi suggested imagining "how Baku will look after two missiles strike the area". He has no doubt that the missiles will reach their target in case of the conflict, and such confidence is not baseless at all. Tehran's military is much stronger then Baku's on each and every parameter.

An extensive missile arsenal and several hundreds of warplanes allow Iran to deal a blazing air blow on the large cities of Azerbaijan.

A common border, and the complete lack of any efficient system of antimissile and antiaircraft defense of the Azerbaijan army eases this task substantially. Moreover, judging by the equipment, staff, and level of preparation, the Air Forces of the Azeri republic are incapable of withstanding the Iranians. The common 611 km long border, allows Iran to subject the southern areas of Azerbaijan to massive artillery bombardments.

In case of escalation of the conflict up to ground forces collisions, Baku also has no chance to resist. By the numbers, the Iranian Army and Pasdaran (not even counting the National Guard - Basij Resistance Forces) considerably surpass the Azerbaijanian armed forces (more than 900 thousand Iranian soldiers against 72 thousand Azeri). Also, Iranians are equipped much better technically then Azerbaijanians. The supreme command structure of the Iranian Army and Pasdaran has a rich operative experience acquired in the war with Iraq. As for Azerbaijanian officers, they proved themselves inadequate during the conflict with Armenia at the beginning of the nineties.

The strategic arrangement of forces in the Southern Caucasus and around the Caspian Sea also is adverse for Baku. Aliev has no close ally with appreciable military potential in the region. But Tehran holds close relations with Armenia. In case the conflict breaks out, Tehran can be expected to grip Azerbaijan in a "vise " from the Southeastern, Southwestern and Western directions. Yerevan does not have to conduct any military actions; it is enough to increase the concentration of its armies on the Azerbaijan border.

Counting upon the above listed strategic factors, experts on the Caucasus consider that given several days, the Iranians would manage not only to suppress the resistance of the Azerbaijan army completely, but also reach the capital of the republic. and parameter,However, any such scenarios are purely theoretical. Baku, certainly, concedes to Tehran on every issue but is protected by Ankara and Washington. Even if Iran would decide to strike Azerbaijan (which is improbable) the Americans would instantly interfere in the course of events. Though the leadership of the Azeri republic constantly increases its military expenditure (by the official data from about $74 million in 1997 up to $300 million in 2005) the true and only guarantor of Baku's security and safety is the United States. Accordingly, any "preventive measures" by Tehran may only provoke the Iranian-American conflict, which in turn is fraught with the most unpredictable consequences, not only for its participants, but also for the countries of the Caucasus, Central Asia and the Middle East.

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:31:00 AM  

The Terrorist Islamic Republic in Iran Regime Will Terrorize America

Shirin Neshat, Press Release:
"In the name of the Persian people and the 2,500 year old Monarchy of the Persian Empire, I wish to tell the American government and the American people that there can be no compromise with the violence and evil perpetrated by the terrorist Islamic Republic in Iran (IRI) regime. READ MORE

"Not only the United States and its people, but all civilized people and nations of the entire world, are endangered by this regime and the murderous tyrants who lead it. This is a war between good and evil. There can be no compromise between the two.

"And the great danger for the people of America, Europe, and the world is this: that the war that is coming is with an enemy--the Islamic Republic in Iran regime--that is capable of any atrocity, any crime, any outrage that it believes serves its own purposes. These outrages will occur not simply on the streets of Tehran, Baghdad, Beirut, Cairo, and Tel Aviv, but in the cities and states of an America that has never known such a war before---within its borders and on its shores---with an enemy who will stop at nothing.

"And so, as a loyal Persian-American, loyal to the history of the Persian Monarchy and the American Constitutional history of Washington, Jefferson, Adams, and Franklin as well, I call--and the blood of the martyrs of the Imperial Iranian Armed Forces calls--upon our President Bush and the American Congress, to rid the American homeland of the presence of the agents of this terrorist Islamic Republic in Iran (IRI) regime from our nation. I (we) call upon President Bush and the American Congress to protect the people of the United States from the terror and the tragedy perpetrated in the nation of Iran in the last 26 years of history. And finally, I (we) call upon President Bush, the Congress of the United States, and the good and godly people of America to give Persian patriots the resources and support necessary to reclaim our land and to restore our 2,500 year old Persian Monarchy---not simply for the patriots of Iran, but for the peace and security of the Middle East and the entire planet in which we are all members of the human family created by the good and great God of history."

"Payandeh Iran "

Shirin Neshat

Sarbazan

Los Angeles, California

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:29:00 AM  

Ganji warns of his coming death

Iranian blogger, Windsteed, Iran Hopes 2005:
Mr. Akbar Ganji, a dissident journalist, writer and politican activist who has spent over 62 months in the Islamic Republic prison for publishing his anti-regime opinions, has written a letter to the outside world to let everyone know if he dies in prison, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be directly responsible for his death. Ganji who has been on hunger strike since last month says that "Hejazi" from the office of the Leader delievers Khamenei's orders to Mortazavi, Tehran's chief prosecutor, on how to treat Ganji should be treated.

I just wonder what has happened to us Iranians. Why don't we do anything for Ganji? What has happened to us? Isn't Ganji and his situation more important to us than a sport victory for which poured onto the streests to show, not only our joy, but also our power? Can't we use this power to support Ganji? Can't we just march on, I don't know, Enghelab avenue to show that we care about Ganji? Doesn't Ganji need our support? If it were not because of us, for our freedom, Ganji would not have been jailed. He put his life in danger, he sacrificed his freedom to open our eyes to the truth. This brave man revealed to us what was going on behind the curtains, he told us how the 'holy men' ordered our fellow Iranians to be butchered only because of their opinions. We have no hope in the international human rights bodies. They are useless. But can't we do something to at least show that we care about Ganji? Is this the way we treat freedom fighters?!

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:26:00 AM  

Some Inside Iran Theocracy Fear Rising Isolation

Iran Focus:
Iran’s defeated presidential contender and current head of the State Expediency Council, Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, warned of “serious dangers” threatening the theocratic regime in his first Friday prayers sermon following last week’s election.

“Let me tell you without any further elaboration that we are facing serious problems and if forces loyal to the Islamic Republic and the revolution become divided, serious dangers will threaten us”, Rafsanjani said. READ MORE

After his shock defeat to hard-line former Revolutionary Guards commander Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Rafsanjani bitterly complained that systematic vote-rigging by “organised forces” had altered election results.

Rafsanjani’s comments were seen by some analysts as a reflection of serious concern among some senior clerics that the Islamic Republic has emerged from the elections as weaker and more vulnerable, with an ultra-conservative holding the presidency.

“They see Ahmadinejad as no more than a marionette in [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei’s hands”, Simon Bailey of the London-based Gulf Intelligence Monitor said. “They are worried by Ahmadinejad’s lousy start on the international scene.

Questions over his involvement in the 1979 hostage-taking, the Austrian government’s investigation of his links to the 1989 assassination of a prominent Iranian dissident in Vienna, strong comments by [United States President George] Bush, [British Prime Minister Tony] Blair and [Italian Prime Minister Silvio] Berlusconi on the Iranian election are causing a lot of anxiety among some senior officials in Tehran”.

Hatef News, a website run by Rafsanjani’s son, Mehdi, wrote in an analysis on the future of nuclear talks between the European Union and Iran that “the election of Ahmadinejad as president has anguished the world, which is not familiar with him”.

“The world has the impression that Ahmadinejad is an extremist conservative who will create obstacles in the nuclear talks with the West”, the website added.

Hamid Besharat, an Iranian political analyst based in Dubai, said in a telephone interview that Rafsanjani and some of the senior clerics not allied with Khamenei are deeply worried over the future of the entire regime.

“They are very afraid that if the regime becomes increasingly isolated, an orange revolution à l’iranienne could become feasible. But they’re not expressing their fears loudly, because they are afraid of the Revolutionary Guards. They have to tread very carefully”.

Despite these concerns, Khamenei and his entourage seem determined to pursue their hard-line policies. The Iranian government even seems to be preparing the public for possible breakdown of nuclear talks in autumn. In a report from London, Iran’s official news agency IRNA warned on Sunday that European governments were “aiming to blame Iran in preparing for a likely breakdown in their negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme”.

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:22:00 AM  

The Untold Story of a Rigged Election

The US Alliance for Democratic Iran:
In case you missed it, a well-organized political coup last week propelled an obscure radical with a wicked past as a hostage-taker, assassin, and interrogator - nicknamed “the Terminator” by colleagues for firing coup de grace shots at political prisoners - into the office of presidency.

The move, backed and blessed by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and engineered by the notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), cements the dominance of the ultra-conservative faction of the ruling regime over all key levers of power in Iran.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a former commander of the IRGC, was declared the winner in last week’s rigged presidential elections. The untold story of the elections, however, was the evident metamorphosis of the ideological army of the mullahs, the IRGC, into a full political-military powerhouse. READ MORE

Ahmadinejad’s Presidency, therefore, will have major internal and foreign policy implications. Constitutionally, office of presidency in Iran has little power or control over key domestic or foreign policy issues. These issues are all decided by the office of the Supreme Leader. It is however a different matter when the person occupying the presidential office is a crony of Khamenei and will act as an executor of the office of the Supreme Leader.

As one analyst told the Time magazine after elections, “Ahmadinejad is just the tip of the iceberg. Behind him are the regime's most powerful political and military institutions."

Ahmadinejad has not wasted any time to articulate the direction of his presidency, which gives a sneak preview into the thinking of the IRGC elite. According to Iran’s state news agency, IRNA, he vowed this week to spread the “new” Islamic revolution throughout the world.

He told the agency, "Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution has arisen and the Islamic revolution of 1384 (the current Iranian year) will, God willing, cut off the roots of injustice in the world." "The wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world," the former assassin told IRNA.

What is more, the IRGC-sponsored Lebanese Hezbollah said that the election of Ahmadinejad would “revive and rejuvenate” the goals of the Islamic Revolution.

“With the victory of Ahmadinejad in Iran’s presidential race, this country returned to the foundations and revolutionary objectives which Ayatollah [Ruhollah] Khomeini founded,” a member of Hezbollah’s political bureau was quoted by the Iran Focus as saying.

With such policy pronouncements, Ahmadinejad, an obscure figure for Iranians until recently, should feel very much at home in the presidential office. He was a commander of the Guards Corps’ Qods (Jerusalem) Force, tasked with “exporting the revolution to Qods (Jerusalem) through Karbala”.

For all the self-congratulatory diplomatic dispatches from their embassies in Tehran to their home office, predicting an easy victory for Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and even meeting with his close aides in Tehran right before the elections, the EU’s Big-3 now have to deal with a new President who is a member of the Old Guard.

The recently published photo reportedly showing Ahmadinejad holding an American hostage in November 1979, fits well with his recent tirade against the United States, vowing, “the wave of the Islamic revolution will soon reach the entire world.”

Ahmadinejad’s win also serves as a wake-up call that we are indeed dealing with an irreformable fundamentalist regime that has all centers of theocratic power, the judiciary, the Parliament and now the presidency under his control. The IRGC, aided by para-military Bassij force and a multitude of security and intelligence agencies, has been in full control of internal security and crackdown on dissent since 1979.

In addition, through the spread and sponsorship of terrorism, covert actions to undermine regional rivals and assassination of prominent Iranian dissidents, it has made its international presence felt since 1980. Last year, Supreme Leader Khamenei, who had already placed Iran’s nuclear development under the IRGC’s command, praised it for “running effective intelligence and diplomatic operations” in Iraq.

It is imperative that we fully comprehend the policy ramifications of Ahmadinejad’s win and articulate our long-overdue Iran policy accordingly. The proposed “wait-and-see” response by the EU will not add anything substantial to the equation. The writing is on the wall: The ruling regime is incapable of change and the policy of engagement has been dealt a serious blow and must be discontinued. Only when Iran tyrants are unseated by the Iranian people, this growing regional and global menace will be neutralized.

posted by DoctorZin @ 7/02/2005 11:21:00 AM