Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [8/21-8/27] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance)

Iran's Nuclear Program.

• Khaleej Times reported that German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer voiced alarm at the risk of military conflict over Iran's nuclear research and called on Teheran to be reasonable.
• The Guardian UK reported that Iran's hard-line president scolded Europeans, accusing them of being willing to sell their goods to Iranians while at the same time trying to strangle Tehran's nuclear program.
• The Wall Street Journal reviewed the achievements of European diplomacy to induce Iran to abandon its nuclear-weapons program.
• The Washington Times reported that Iran's outgoing Supreme National Security Council chief, Hasan Rohani, said Iran wants to re-operate a second nuclear center.
• The People's Daily - China said Bush's recent threat of using force against Iran serves more a psychological deterrent than a real one.
• Reuters reported the European powers have called off August 31 talks with Iran over its nuclear program.
• Gary Milhollin, The New York Times warned us not to underestimate the Mullahs intention to produce a nuclear bomb.
• The Chronwatch considers how to handle Iran's nuclear ambitions by contrasting the positions of Dr. Jerome Corsi and Pat Buchanan.
• The Washington Post reported that U.S. officials have begun a new round of briefings with U.S. allies designed to convince them that Iran's real intention is to use its energy program as a cover for bomb building.
• Reuters reported that French FM Says EU still wants Iran Nuclear Talks.
• BBC News reported that the United States has criticised an independent investigation which found no evidence that Iran was working on a secret nuclear weapons program.
• Science Daily reported that Iran snubbed the EU3's precondition to halt its nuclear programs prior to a resumption of talks.
• Reuters reported that Iran's top nuclear negotiator is to meet the head of the U.N. atomic watchdog on Friday.
• Tom Valasek, The Wall Street Journal thinks the one bright spot in the EU3 negotiations with Iran is: Europe and the U.S. rediscovered some of their old unity.
• Radio Free Europe reported that Iran said it sees no justification in continuing nuclear negotiations exclusively with Britain, France, and Germany.
• Nasser Karimi, The Miami Herald published Europe's response to Iran's proposal of expanding the number of nations involved with their negotiations.
• Rooz Online reported that Ali Larijani, the new head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said: The US strategy today is to hold a stick high and force weaker states to commit suicide.
• The Christian Science Monitor reported that we are at a pivotal moment for 'axis of evil.'
• IranMania:A prominent Iranian dissident claimed Tehran had mastered the design of nuclear capable cruise missiles.
• Reuters reported that within a month Iran hopes to present a new plan to resolve its nuclear stand-off with the West to European Union powers.
• Expatica reported that Iran's newly-appointed chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said an agreement was possible with the European Union over the country's controversial nuclear program.
• The Billings Gazette reported that Tehran's top nuclear envoy said Iran will not negotiate away its right to enrich uranium and shrugged off threats of possible U.N. action.
• Gregory Scoblete, Tech Central Station argues that neither carrots nor sticks are going to end Iran's quest for nuclear weapons.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russia believes the format in which the EU3 has been negotiating with Iran "has proved its usefulness."
• Islamic Republic News Agency reported that an Iranian daily here Saturday questioned the role of Britain, Germany and France in Iran's nuclear issue saying: The negotiations ought to be between Iran and the IAEA governing board that represents all its member states.
  

Akbar Ganji's has suspended his hunger strike.

• Rooz Online reported that after UN Secretary General Kofi Annan sent a letter to Iranian leaders over the case of Akbar Ganji, the prisoner has ended his hunger strike and that his file will be closed soon.
• Adnkronos International reported that Iranian journalist and writer, Akbar Ganji, has suspended the hunger strike, his wife, Massoumeh Shafii confirmed the news after seeing him.
• Eli Lake, The NY Sun reported that Akbar Ganji has broken his hunger strike following pleas from his family.
• Farideh Nicknazar, Iran Scan reported that Akbar Ganji, terminated his hunger strike after 71 days. We still don't know the details.
  

Other Iranian dissidents.

• Iranian blogger, WishMeLuck, Zaneirani reported that Iranian dissident Manouchehr Mohammadi (still on hunger strike) has been taken to an unknown location.
• Pekeiran reported that Iranian dissident Manucher Mohamadi also broke his hunger strike.
• Amnesty International called for urgent action in the case of Iranian dissident Hojjatoleslam Ezimi Qedim, out of fear for safety/fear of torture or ill-treatment.

Still more on the elections.

• Iranian blogger, Kamal Tehrani, Rooz Online reported that one month after the presidential elections, statistics have been released that not only confirm the widespread irregularities in the voting, but even corroborate the suspicions that the outcome of the elections would have been different if the rigging were prevented.

The unrest against the regime spreads in Iran.

• Assyrian International News Agency reported that Iran's State Security Forces have stepped up arrests of Kurds who took part in large-scale anti-government demonstrations.
• SMCCDI reported the death of the Governor of the northwestern City of Bookan in what has been declared as a 'car accident'.
• SMCCDI reported that Islamic regime forces have organized an unprecedented man hunt in the strategic southern City-Port of Bandar-Abbas.
• SMCCDI reported that a brutal militiaman was seriously wounded after brutalizing two young individuals. Local residents helped the group to escape.
• SMCCDI reported that several militiamen and armed individuals have died in a clash which happened near the northwestern City of Mian-do-Ab.

Ahmadinejad.

• SMCCDI reported that Iranian opposition groups are preparing a kind of 'welcoming' ceremony, September 14th and 15th, for the Islamic republic's appointed president on US soil when he arrives in September for the opening ceremonies of the UN .
• The New York Times reported that Iran's new conservative president faced his first challenge today in Parliament when skeptical lawmakers put him on the defensive about his recommendations for 21 cabinet ministers.
• Iran Focus reported that the row in Iran's Majlis (parliament) on Sunday was stage-managed by the dominant ultra-Islamist faction.
• Rooz Online reported that Ahmadinejad’s cabinet nominees were officially presented to the Majlis and opponents of the nominees called Ahmadinejad’s 6-page plan for Iran, just a collection of beautiful words.
• Rooz Online reported on the parliamentary games being played in confirming Ahmadinejad's cabinet.
• Rooz Online reported that ultra-conservative, Mohammad Hossein Saffar Harandi, will take the helm of Iran’s press, culture and arts affairs.
• Al Jazeera reported that Iran's conservative-controlled parliament has rejected new President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nominee for the oil ministry, Ali Saidloo, as well as three other proposed cabinet members.
• Reuters reported that the United States remains concerned about Iran's nuclear program saying that questions about Iran's nuclear ambitions worry: not just the United States has, but the rest of the world.
• The Associated Press reported that Iran will soon offer new proposals for negotiations with Europe.
• SMCCDI reported Iran's new Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, is a notorious Islamist terrorist, known for his involvement in the murder of several dissidents in Turkey.
• Reuters reported that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad convened his depleted team of ministers for their first meeting on Thursday after suffering the ignominy of seeing parliament rejects four of his cabinet picks.
• Kamal Nazer Yasin, Eurasianet reported that Iranian President Mahmood Ahmadinejad’s cabinet selections indicate that Iran’s leadership is preparing for domestic challenges and a possible confrontation with the West.
• Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the Iran's Majlis deputies Wednesday gave votes of confidence to 17 ministers proposed by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. See list.
• Iran Focus reported that two former United States hostages held captive in Iran for 444 days in Tehran in 1979 told a Persian-language satellite channel that they have no doubts that Iran’s new hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of the supervisors of their interrogators. Another former hostage, Kevin Hermening, recounted how Ahmadinejad tried to force him to open the embassy’s safe after the takeover.

The Power Struggle inside of Iran.

• Khaleej Times reported that former Iran’s vice-president Mohammad-Reza Aref has rejected cooperation with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, choosing to return to the university as an instructor.
• Rooz Online reported on former president Mohammad Khatami’s warnings about the advances of groups with dogmatic and regressive views and there are reports that pressure groups are organizing and planning to respond to his ideas.
• Iran Focus reported the cryptic maneuvering of reformist leaders attending en masse the wedding of the grandson of the elderly ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri.

Iran's Troublemaking.

• San Francisco Chronicle reported the United States says it faces another enemy in Iraq: Iran.
• The Christian Science Monitor reported on Iran's influence on the Afghan Hazaras as they prepare for the next elections in Afghanistan.
• Iran Focus reported that the commander of Iran’s “Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison”, a general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – vowed that his suicide volunteers will destroy United States’ interests all over the world in retaliation to any attempt by the U.S. to hit Iran’s nuclear installations.
• SMCCDI reported an Iranian dissident Kurd was murdered in the Swedish City of Lindsborg. The victim's name is Kaveh Zare-i aged 25. The spread of this news has increased the fear among many Iranian opponents.
• Eli Lake, The NY Sun reported that Iraqi Security may be compromised and Iran is of particular concern.
• Haaretz reported the latest rockets fired from Lebanon are Iranian-made Fajr 3 models, marking the first time shells imported from Iran were used against Israel.
• Nooredin Abedian, Jewish Journal reported on Iran's New Export - Suicide Bombers.

U.S. Policy on Iran.

• Eli Lake, The NY Sun reported that President Bush vowed a "total victory" over terror.

The Iranian Military.

• SMCCDI reported the Islamic regime is tightening its control over its military forces.
• Iranmania reported that the cabinet nominee for the Defense Ministry said: Iran's main military objectives are the development of its air defense as well as its ballistic missiles.
• Iranian.ws reported that Iran is preparing to spend billions more on missile warfare.
• DEBKAfile reported that Iran’s new defense minister, Mostafa Mohammad-Najar, brigadier general in the Revolutionary Guards, has packed a lurid, blood-spattered biography into his 49 years. A profile.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Iran appointed a new chief for the air force component of the country's elite Revolutionary Guards Thursday. Gen. Alireza Zahedi.
• Kuwait News Agency reported that the Air force will knock enemies down if Iran is attacked, warned Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi.

The Iranian Economy.

• Toni Straka, Speaking Freely, Asia Times asked: Could the proposed Iranian oil bourse (IOB) become the catalyst for a significant blow to the influential position the US dollar enjoys?
• Alan Peters thinks this would be a disaster for the US economy.
• Andrew Ellson, Times UK reported that this week the price of a barrel of oil surged towards $70 a barrel, near the inflation-adjusted price last seen in 1980, shortly after the Iranian revolution. One country is causing particular concern: Iran.

Human Rights/Freedom of the press inside of Iran.

• Iran Focus reported on a new sex-segregated park is under development in the city of Mashad. The new park will be used exclusively by women.
• SMCCDI reported that the Islamic republic regime is to apply more discriminatory measures against Iranian women in days ahead.
• Rooz Online looks at the change in Iran regarding the Chador, the mandatory women's covering.
• SMCCDI reported that four more young Iranians were executed.
• The Associated Press reported that the Iranian government has tightened its control over the Internet.
• The Guardian reported on the hundreds of Iranian rock acts springing up despite official disapproval. These bans have never been able to experience playing a live gig.
• Rooz Online reported that Ali Afshari, a leading member of Iran's largest student organization, will not have an open court hearing since there are currently no laws defining political rights.
• SMCCDI reported on the mass arrest of Iranian women have increased for the non-observance of Islamist veil.
• Amnesty International is calling on the Iranian authorities to prevent the execution of two teenagers in Iran.
• The Committee to Protect Bloggers has a petition calling on Iran to free Iranian blogger, Mojtaba Saminejad!

Iran and the International community.

• BBC News reported a Christian Iranian family has lost their appeal for asylum in the UK.
• Middle East Newsline reported Britain donated armored vests to Iran's security forces.
• The Scotsman reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said his country would not support any military action against Iran.

Sean Penn's Five Part Series on Iran.

• Day One, Discovering a culture in conflict.
• Day Two, A meeting with the son of a former president of Iran, Mehdi Rafsanjani.
• Day Three, A meeting with the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Hassan Khomeini.
• Day Four, A demonstration in Tehran.
• Day Five, The trip home.
• One more, a conversation with an Iranian student not afraid to mock the mullahs.

Must Read reports.

• Patrick Devenny, FrontPageMagazine.com argues that the new Iranian government is its most radical.
• Yahoo News reported that an unmanned single-engined plane has crashed in a mountainous area of western Iran and the wreckage has been recovered by the Iranian armed forces.
• General Paul Vallely, Executive Intelligence Review reported that he knew that Osama bin Laden was in Iran, and that Iran already has nuclear weapons. A Must Read!

Photos and cartoons of the week.

• Rooz Online published another cartoon: From Stone Age to Reactionary Age.
• Photos prove that Iran's hardline students are learning to spell.
• Rooz Online Cartoon of Ahmadinejad.
  

And finally, The Quote of the Week.

Iran Focus: In an under-reported new story, quoted former hostage, Kevin Hermening, recounted how:

"Ahmadinejad tried to force him to open the embassy’s safe after the takeover."

A Personal Note: As a result of the tremendous outpouring of support from my fellow bloggers and readers, I have been able to order a new laptop. Thank you very much!

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 8.27.2005:

Drone crashes in Iran

Yahoo News:

An unmanned single-engined plane has crashed in a mountainous area of western Iran and the wreckage has been recovered by the Iranian armed forces.

It was not clear if the plane was Iranian or foreign, although the influential Kayhan newspaper pointed out that "usually these sort of planes are used for spying on other countries".

The reports quoted Ali Asgar Ahmadi, deputy head of security in the interior ministry, as saying the plane went down on Thursday in the Alashtar mountains near the city of Khorramabad, the capital of Lorestan province, 350 kilometres (220 miles) southwest of Tehran. READ MORE

Kuwait News Agency:

The Air force will knock enemies down if Iran is attacked, warned Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Haaretz reported the latest rockets fired from Lebanon are Iranian-made Fajr 3 models, marking the first time shells imported from Iran were used against Israel.
• The Scotsman reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said his country would not support any military action against Iran.
• The Committee to Protect Bloggers has a petition calling on Iran to free Iranian blogger, Mojtaba Saminejad!
• Nooredin Abedian, Jewish Journal reported on Iran's New Export - Suicide Bombers.
• Dow Jones Newswires reported that Russia believes the format in which the EU3 has been negotiating with Iran "has proved its usefulness."
• Islamic Republic News Agency reported that an Iranian daily here Saturday questioned the role of Britain, Germany and France in Iran's nuclear issue saying: The negotiations ought to be between Iran and the IAEA governing board that represents all its member states.
• And finally, Sean Penn, The San Francisco Chronicle, a conversation with an Iranian student not afraid to mock the mullahs.

Rockets fired Thursday from Lebanon were made in Iran

Yoav Stern, Haaretz:

The rockets fired from Lebanon, one of which landed in the moshav of Margaliot adjacent to the northern border on Thursday, are Iranian-made Fajr 3 models, marking the first time shells imported from Iran were used against Israel, the Lebanese English-language newspaper The Daily Star reported.

The report also indicates that armed groups have Iranian-produced weaponry at their disposal with which to fire across the northern border.

The Fajr 3 rocket measures 240 milimeters in diameter with a length of five meters. It weighs in at over 400 kilograms and its range can reach up to 43 kilometers, enabling it to reach the metropolitan Haifa area if fired from the Lebanese border. READ MORE

As opposed to the run-of-the-mill Katyusha rockets which are normally used by Palestinian organizations, the Fajr 3 can be fired by a lone agent.

The newspaper reported Friday that an investigation revealed the rockets were fired from the Marjayoun region in south Lebanon. One shell hit a chicken coop in Margaliot while two others landed in Lebanese territory, causing no injuries or damage.

Islamic Jihad issued a statement claiming responsibility for the shelling, adding that the attack was in response to the Wednesday night killing of five Palestinian Islamic Jihad members in the West Bank town of Tul Karm.

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which investigated Thursday's shelling, has provided Israel and Lebanon with its findings.

On Thursday, a spokesman from the Hezbollah militia denied it was responsible for the shooting. Nonetheless, the group does maintain posts in the region from where the shells were fired, which raises the possibility that Hezbollah members fired the shells by mistake.

The trajectory of the rockets was between five and six kilometers only. In addition, the rockets landed in an area which is outside of the group's traditional front, namely the Sheba Farms region on Mount Dov.

Various reports have stated that Hezbollah possesses approximately 13,000 rockets in southern Lebanon with ranges that can reach expansive areas inside Israel.

Pakistan rejects action over Iran

The Scotsman:

Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said his country would not support any military action against Iran and called for a diplomatic resolution of the dispute over its nuclear programme.

Washington has accused Iran of having a secret programme to make nuclear weapons, but Iran insists its nuclear activities are for peaceful energy purposes.

Aziz told reporters in the eastern city of Lahore that all matters related to the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved through negotiations.

Free Mojtaba Saminejad!

Committee to Protect Bloggers:

I'm writing briefly to ask you not to forget Mojtaba Saminejad, the Iranian blogger who was sentenced to two years in prison for criticizing his government for arresting other bloggers. Mojtaba is mixed in with the general population of a prison that is overwhelmingly populated by hardcore violent criminals. We have started an online petition for him here. READ MORE


It sends a separate email to the major Iranian decision-makers in charge of Mojtaba's case and in charge of registering global public opinion about Iran. Every time someone signs it sends a separate email to each recipient. By signing it you are saying, "We haven't forgotten; we won't forget." Please sign it, publish a post about it (if you have a blog) and let others know.

We have also created a similar petition for Omid Sheikhan. Omid was arrested 9 months ago and tortured. He faces a court date in early October. We want to convince the Iranian authorities to drop the spurious charges against him. Please do the same for Omid as you do for Mojtaba -- sign, post and pass it on.

For anyone who might think this sort of thing doesn't do much, read this article about another imprisoned Iranian blogger, Sina Motallebi.

Mojtaba's petition has over 400 and Omid's over 300 signatories. We need a lot more than that.

Thanks for your help.


CURT HOPKINS
Director, The Committee to Protect Bloggers
(541) 729-4146 c.
cpbone (Skype)
http://committeetoprotectbloggers.civiblog.org
committeetoprotectbloggers@gmail.com

Iran's New Export - Suicide Bombers

Nooredin Abedian, Jewish Journal:

Behind the horrible scenes left by four explosions in London on July 7, loomed a more fearsome reality: The perpetrators, most of them very young, had voluntarily turned themselves into living bombs. Europe experienced its first suicide bombings. More horrible yet, was that not even the closest ones around the culprits had realized the disaster coming. The world was shocked to see that youngsters in a western democracy could be turned into suicide bombers with so much ease, without anybody noticing.

People are looking for the roots. In London, the government’s liberal approach to Londonistan, eastern London’s safe haven for fundamentalist activists, where hard-line preachers used to openly instigate violence among the Muslim youth, is put under question. France’s interior minister said he was astonished by the suicide bombers’ youth. He criticized the British for their liberal approach in dealing with fundamentalists.

But in going lean on fundamentalism, the British are not alone. Together with their French critics, and the Germans, they are pursuing a far more liberal approach with a country known as the first state sponsor of terrorism — Iran. They are busy negotiating with Iran on a range of issues — mainly its nuclear program, human rights and security, with luxurious trade relations on the agenda as well.

Recently, news reports from Iran affirmed that a military garrison has been opened in Iran to recruit and train volunteers for “martyrdom-seeking operations.” Its commander, Jaafari, a senior officer in the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, told a hard-line weekly close to Iran’s ultra-conservative President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the new “Lovers of Martyrdom Garrison” would recruit individuals willing to carry out suicide operations against Western targets.

“One of our garrison’s aims is to spot martyrdom-seeking individuals in society and then recruit and organize them, so that, God willing, at the right moment when the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] gives the order, they would be able to enter the scene and carry out their missions,” Jaafari told the Parto-Sokhan weekly.

Jaafari’s remarks were widely reported by Iran’s state-run media. The brigade claims that 30,000 young Iranians have thus far registered for getting a chance to take part in such operations, and more than 20,000 are currently being trained.

It might be true that none of Jaafari’s recruits have found their way to London or other European capitals. Besides, all of them are Shiite Muslims, and not of the Salafist brand of Islam thought to be responsible for the bombings. But that is the least important point. The London bombings have shown that recruits are abundant locally; they just need to be inspired.

Those Muslim teenage kamikazes in London or elsewhere, like others of their age, have their idols. Theirs is not necessarily Michael Jackson or Lance Armstrong. Shows, like one orchestrated in Tehran, depict a new world of heavenly death where martyrs are welcomed like glorious heroes, much like those in Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries,” carried to heaven by heavenly female warriors. If you were 18 years old, and fond of holy jihad against the infidels, you would have found enormous inspiration by thinking that thousands of people somewhere in the world watch you with admiration, sharing your sinister zest and waiting for your ultimate heroic act. It is only of secondary importance if they are Shiite and you are not. READ MORE

Don’t forget that Khamenei’s official title is the leader of the world’s Muslims, and not Shiites. That title holds even in Lebanon, where Shiite Hezbollah fighters put up parades of would-be suicide bombers with explosive-filled belts around their torsos under his huge portraits. All fundamentalists share a common hatred toward the West, toward modernism and toward democracy. They all say they want to annihilate Israel. This is a devastating ideology claiming the leadership of 1.2 billion Muslims the world over.

With the world facing such a serious threat, responsible international behavior is expected from all countries. Those not abiding by the general rules should be boycotted, isolated and brought to their senses. Firm positions from other countries are imperative for making them abide.

When Europeans openly meet and talk with leaders of a country boasting about an army of would-be suicide bombers on their state television, little can be done to send a message of firmness to homegrown imams and fundamentalists in Europe. More important, it would be interpreted as a sort of recognition for a devastating ideology, with its message of death and blind terror.

Nooredin Abedian taught in Iranian higher-education institutions before settling in France as a political refugee in 1981. He writes for a variety of publications on Iranian politics and issues concerning human rights.

Russia Backs Format of EU-3 Nuclear Talks with Iran

Dow Jones Newswires:

Russia expressed support Tuesday for the talks France, Germany and the U.K. have conducted with Iran over its nuclear program, after Tehran called on other nations to take part in negotiations.

Russia believes the format in which the European "troika" has been negotiating with Iran "has proved its usefulness," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. "We suggest that its potential is far from exhausted." READ MORE

The statement followed a media request for a response to a call Thursday by Iran's nuclear point man, Ali Larijani, for other nations to open talks with his country on its nuclear program - an apparent bid to bring nations more sympathetic to Tehran's cause on board.

The ministry said it was up to the participants in the talks to decide whether to change the format.

Russia is building a nuclear power reactor in Iran, and has long backed Tehran's statements that its program is only aimed at producing electricity -not nuclear weapons, as the U.S. and other nations fear.

President Vladimir Putin has tried to please both Iran and the U.S. in comments over the past year, saying he is convinced its government is not seeking nuclear weapons, but that it must do more to prove that to the world.

The talks with France, Germany and the U.K., which Russia has repeatedly expressed support, suffered a blow earlier this month when Iran rejected the Europeans' central proposal, an offer of economic incentives in return for permanently giving up uranium development.

Russia doesn't want the issue of Iran's nuclear program to go to the U.N. Security Council, where it could be forced to take a stand that would significantly damage relations with the U.S. or with Iran.

Paper Questions Role of EU Trio in Iran's Nuclear Case

Islamic Republic News Agency:

An Iranian daily here Saturday questioned the role of Britain, Germany and France in Iran's nuclear issue asking why they acted as the "self-assumed joint spokesman" for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Commenting on the remarks of new Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, the 'Kayhan International' said that free world has welcomed Larijani's comments when he has recently asked in Vienna that to who actually the said European trio are representing.

The English-language daily criticized Iran's former administration for holding more than 22 months of negotiations with the EU big three and for voluntarily suspending Tehran's nuclear activities.

"What had troubled Iranians so far was: Why Tehran had allowed Paris, Berlin and London to take it for a ride, when the trio neither represented the IAEA nor the UN or the European Union?" asked the editorial.

Stressing that the European big three "Had no official mandate or authority except to serve interests of their godfather, the US," the paper backed Larijani's comments that "The negotiations ought to be between Iran and the IAEA governing board that represents all its member states." READ MORE

Kayhan International further said the EU trio "Should know that Iran resolved to break new ground in the peaceful exploitation of nuclear energy whether they like it or not."

It reiterated that the Islamic Iran "is a peace-loving country and believes in peaceful co-existence in a world devoid of the danger of nuclear arms.

"It is a misconstrued idea to think that Iran will buckle down under pressure from the Great Satan (the US) and its European and regional bullies in awe of their nuclear stockpile and forgo its inalienable right to develop this vital source of energy," argued the paper.

It strongly criticized a "handful" nuclear-powered states for restoring "to the absurd threat of sending unclear dossier to the UN for possible sanctions" and said that they are doing so in order to maintain their "Unjust monopoly at the rest of the world" and for forcing Tehran to become "totally dependent upon them for its fuel requirements."

Iranian air force will knock down enemies if Iran was attacked -- Safavi

Kuwait News Agency:

The Air force will knock enemies down if Iran is attacked, warned Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi on Saturday. READ MORE

His remarks followed a ceremony to mark the appointment of Brigadier General Ali-Reza Zahedi as the new commander of the IRGC air force. Safavi said the well-equipped Iranian air force should be alerted to encounter any US or Israeli threat, in coordination with other Iranian forces in order to defend the lands and interests of Iran.

Drone crashes in Iran

Yahoo News:

An unmanned single-engined plane has crashed in a mountainous area of western Iran and the wreckage has been recovered by the Iranian armed forces.

It was not clear if the plane was Iranian or foreign, although the influential Kayhan newspaper pointed out that "usually these sort of planes are used for spying on other countries".

The reports quoted Ali Asgar Ahmadi, deputy head of security in the interior ministry, as saying the plane went down on Thursday in the Alashtar mountains near the city of Khorramabad, the capital of Lorestan province, 350 kilometres (220 miles) southwest of Tehran. READ MORE

The hardline Kayhan newspaper said that as soon as the plane crashed, police sealed off the area -- just 150 kilometres from the border with Iraq -- and "a group of experts from Kermanshahr airbase went to examine the fuselage".

"It is under investigation," a local official quoted as saying.

No further details were given.

Earlier this year the former intelligence minister Ali Yunessi confirmed the presence of "American spying instruments" in the skies over Iran and warned that they would be targeted by the military.

"Americans have been conducting spying activities in the Iranian sky for a long time," he said in February.

US media reports earlier this year also said the United States has been flying drones over Iran since April 2004, seeking evidence to back up its claims that Iran is working on nuclear weapons and probing for weaknesses in Iran's air defences.

The administration of US President George W. Bush has refused to rule out possible military action over Iran's nuclear activities, charging that its efforts to develop nuclear fuel are a cover for an atomic weapons programme.

Iranian student is not afraid to mock the mullahs

Sean Penn, The San Francisco Chronicle: A short sidebar we missed a few days ago.

After my brief photo op with Hashemi Rafsanjani, I headed to the University of Tehran, which on Sundays is in full swing.

We hit the campus about lunchtime. There were many students, socializing, eating lunch, laughing. We approached a small group, a young man and two young women, sitting on a bench. "May we talk to you?" I asked. Hearing our English, the good-looking, angular young man turned to us, "Where are you from?" he asked.

"The United States of America," I said. He responded, "The big evil, huh?" clearly mocking the mullahs who refer to the United States as the "Great Satan," and to Britain as the "Little Satan."

The young man's name was Arya. He was 21, an undergraduate student in political science. I asked him about the needs of his peer group. "Young people in Iran need some freedom, they need some human rights. ... We need democracy, and the basis of democracy -- it takes a long time. READ MORE

... I think the big problem here in Iran is the religion. People are so religious, and it's a big problem here because in the deep of their hearts they feel something about religion and they do something unreasonable, I think. ... I want to see a separation of religion from politics. ... (In the past few years) a lot of things changed, people realize that they can say their opinion, it's not a big deal that you have a different opinion from the others, and it's a good thing, and everybody started to express their feelings and beliefs. But as you know we have a lot of political prisoners, that's a big problem. .. . There's always a red line -- don't go over it. But I think it's gradual, democracy and the knowledge in people is a gradual thing that's step by step. . .. Now, it's not a good environment, there's a lot of mental problems -- and a lot of things -- you have to hide your love, you have to hide everything, you have to wear masks; to have jobs, to have everything you have to wear masks, several masks. You have to change every mask you go everywhere."

What about young people who did not agree with that point of view?

"They're affected by the wrong expression of religion," he said. "They think religion is just to fight, in Islam especially; you have to fight with everybody, with anyone who says something against you or doesn't believe your thoughts -- and it's a wrong idea. You can have your opinion, you can have your own beliefs, everything, and you can live with other people."

Friday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 8.26.2005:

Iran had designed N-capable cruise missiles

IranMania:

A prominent Iranian dissident on Friday claimed Tehran had mastered the design of nuclear capable cruise missiles secretly sold to the Islamic Republic by Ukraine and was on the verge of producing copies.

Alireza Jafarzadeh said the 12 weapons were now in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and also fired off new claims about the corps' past links with disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist AQ Khan, according to AFP. READ MORE

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Iran Focus reported that two former United States hostages held captive in Iran for 444 days in Tehran in 1979 told a Persian-language satellite channel that they have no doubts that Iran’s new hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of the supervisors of their interrogators. Another former hostage, Kevin Hermening, recounted how Ahmadinejad tried to force him to open the embassy’s safe after the takeover.
  
• Eli Lake, The NY Sun reported that Iraqi Security may be compromised and Iran is of particular concern.
• Reuters reported that within a month Iran hopes to present a new plan to resolve its nuclear stand-off with the West to European Union powers.
• Iran Focus reported the cryptic maneuvering of reformist leaders attending en masse the wedding of the grandson of the elderly ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri.
• Expatica reported that Iran's newly-appointed chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said an agreement was possible with the European Union over the country's controversial nuclear program.
• The Billings Gazette reported that Tehran's top nuclear envoy said Iran will not negotiate away its right to enrich uranium and shrugged off threats of possible U.N. action.
• Andrew Ellson, Times UK reported that this week the price of a barrel of oil surged towards $70 a barrel, near the inflation-adjusted price last seen in 1980, shortly after the Iranian revolution. One country is causing particular concern: Iran.
• Gregory Scoblete, Tech Central Station argues that neither carrots nor sticks are going to end Iran's quest for nuclear weapons.
• And finally, Sean Penn, The San Francisco Chronicle, the final installment. The trip home.

'Iran had designed N-capable cruise missiles'

IranMania:

A prominent Iranian dissident on Friday claimed Tehran had mastered the design of nuclear capable cruise missiles secretly sold to the Islamic Republic by Ukraine and was on the verge of producing copies.

Alireza Jafarzadeh said the 12 weapons were now in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and also fired off new claims about the corps' past links with disgraced Pakistani nuclear scientist AQ Khan, according to AFP. READ MORE

His charges, made at a press conference in Washington, coincided with a spike in tensions in the showdown between Europe, the United States and Tehran over the Islamic Republic's alleged quest for nuclear weapons.

Jafarzadeh neither identified his sources, on the grounds that to do so could expose them to reprisals by the Iranian government, nor provided documentary evidence.

The allegations could also not be independently confirmed.

Two of the Ukranian Kh-55 missiles were used by Iranian scientists in reverse engineering process that had allowed them to copy the design, Jafarzadeh said.

Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani told the country's Supreme National Security Council that "Iran has been successful in acquiring the technology for Kh-55 cruise missiles and Tehran is in the last stages of producing the missile," Jafarzadeh said.

Jafarzadeh did not provide dates for the meeting, but said the copied missile's 3,000 kilometres (1,800 miles) range would threaten European countries.

Ukranian President Viktor Yushchenko has admitted that missiles were shipped by the previous government in Kiev illegally to China and Iran.

Jafarzadeh also issued a new claim over alleged Pakistani complicity in Iran's nuclear program, identifying a senior member of the Revolutionary Guard whom he said met Khan as far back as 1986 and 1987.

Meetings between Khan and a Brigadier General identified as Mohammad Eslami, chief of the guard's research centre, disproved claims by Iran that Khan's reported links to its nuclear program were in a purely civilian context, he said.

"I ask the International Atomic Energy Agency to interview him (Eslami) as soon as possible," said Jafarzadeh.

Iran has defied the international community by resuming work on making reactor fuel that could also be used to make nuclear weapons but insists that it wants to continue talks on guaranteeing its atomic program is peaceful.

Jafarzadeh is president of Strategic Policy Consulting Inc. a US research firm, an analyst for the Fox News network. He was born in Iran before moving to the United States before the revolutioin in 1979.

He was formerly a spokesman for the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the political wing of the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK), which is designated as a terrorist organisation by the US government and Europe.

The NCRI vehemently contests the label, which it says was imposed by governments seeking to curry favor with Tehran.

Jafarzadeh he says previous revelations like the regarded alleged uranium enriching plants at Natanz and a heavy water facility at Arak prove his information and intentions are legitimate.

Iraq Security Services May Be Compromised

Eli Lake, The NY Sun:

Fresh from a tour of Iraq, Jordan, and Egypt, the chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence says he is concerned about terrorist penetration of Iraq's security services.

In an interview yesterday with The New York Sun, Rep. Peter Hoekstra, a Republican of Michigan, said, "I have concerns on their penetration by various groups." Mr. Hoekstra added that he sees numerous factions that pose a threat to the security force that President Bush anticipates will play an increasingly critical role in aiding the American military's battle against the insurgency.

"I am concerned with the Iranians, folks affiliated with foreign fighters, and disgruntled people from a religious or Baathist standpoint. Clearly, we are trying to get intel on them, and clearly they are trying to get intel on us," the intelligence committee chairman said. READ MORE

Also yesterday, Iraqi lawmakers asked for and received an extension to continue debate over the draft constitution submitted to the transitional assembly on Tuesday. Separately, the bodies of 36 men were found yesterday southeast of Baghdad on a road leading to Iran, the Associated Press reported

The president and his top advisers have touted the Iraqi charter as an accomplishment that could turn the tide in the war in Iraq. The White House has also recently said disengagement of American troops from Iraq could only occur when Iraq's military and security services were able defend the elected government in Baghdad. On Tuesday, Mr. Bush told those assembled at the annual convention for the Veterans of Foreign Wars, "When Iraqi forces can defend their freedom by taking on more and more of the fight to the enemy, our troops will come home with the honor they have earned."

The problem, however, has been that some members of Iraq's police, intelligence, and National Guard have not only failed to stop terrorist insurgents, but may be cooperating with America's enemies in the country.

A counterterrorism expert with a center-right think tank here, the Hudson Institute, Chris Brown, yesterday said, "The terrorist penetration of the security services is extensive and a major problem. They include Baathists, Islamists and pro-Iranian agents. And they are at all levels from officers to enlisted. I think we have almost let this go too far. If major changes are not made soon, the United States will be expelled by the institutions we helped build."

A report released last month by the inspector generals of the State Department and the Pentagon similarly said, "Inducting criminals into the [Iraqi Police Service] is a continual concern. Even more troubling is infiltration by intending terrorists or insurgents. There is sufficient evidence to conclude that such persons indeed are among the ranks of the IPS."

Anecdotal evidence from Iraqis also suggests that the police, intelligence, and military services created under a former interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi are corrupt and in some cases cooperating with terrorists. Last March, an Iraqi politician, Mithal al-Alusi, who a year ago faced death threats for attending a counterterrorism conference in Israel, told The New York Sun that he believed the Baghdad police were working directly with individuals who assassinated his son.

Mr. Hoekstra yesterday said he was optimistic about the training of Iraqi soldiers now, most of whom are trained in neighboring Jordan. He also said that despite some cases of terrorist penetration, it does not necessarily mean that the security services will not be able to do their job.

"There is fertile ground for penetration. It does not mean it can't work, their activities may be predictable in many cases," Mr. Hoekstra said. "At the same time, we are penetrating the insurgents. We are out gathering as much information to get plans and intentions on the insurgents."

Mr. Hoekstra also said that he believed the press presented an "incomplete picture" of the war in Iraq and downplayed recent remarks from a fellow Republican, Senator Hagel of Nebraska, who said on Sunday that Iraq was turning into a quagmire similar to Vietnam.

"There is no doubt this middle process we are going through is tough," Mr. Hoekstra said. "I can characterize it as being a lot of hard work. Senator Hagel can say it's a quagmire. Going through a quagmire is hard work. The question is what are we going to do, and where do we go from here. I think we can achieve success in Iraq, but it's not easy. We need to get through this constitution process and through the elections.

Iran hopes to present new nuclear plan within month

Reuters:

Iran hopes to present a new plan to resolve its nuclear stand-off with the West to European Union powers within a month, its chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said on Friday.

Asked if Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would present his proposal within a month, Larijani told reporters: "I hope so." READ MORE

Britain, France and Germany have spent two years trying to pursuade Tehran to give up sensitive parts of its nuclear programme. Larijani said on Thursday Iran was finalising a new plan which would include broadening negotiations to involve nations outside the current trio of EU powers.

Iran’s defeated reformists pin hope on dissident ayatollah

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website

A simple Islamic wedding party, with male guests in one hall and women in a separate wing, turned into a powwow for Iran’s dispirited reformists, who are still in the throes of confusion and despair after a crushing defeat in last June’s presidential election.

The names of men in the wedding read like a Who’s Who of the reformist faction, beginning with ex-President Mohammad Khatami himself. Many of Khatami’s ministers and allies, including ex-Majlis Speaker Mehdi Karrubi, were present.

The bride was the daughter of Serajeddin Moussavi, a mid-ranking Shiite cleric who was a top official in Ayatollah Khomeini’s office and commander of his bodyguards. In the 1980s, Moussavi was commander in chief of the Islamic revolutionary komitehs, which later formed the core of the country’s police force. In recent years, he was Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan.

But it was the groom’s parentage that was of greatest interest to the elderly guests, many of them donning the white or black turbans of Shiite clergymen. The groom was the grandson of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, the man once designated as the official successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, but who later fell from grace. From the mid-1980s onwards, Montazeri angered the founder of the Islamic Republic with his consistent protests over human rights abuses, particularly the massacre of several thousand political prisoners in 1988 on the basis of a fatwa, or religious decree, issued by Ayatollah Khomeini.

The groom’s father, Hadi Hashemi, also a cleric, was the chief of staff of Ayatollah Montazeri and ran his office in the city of Qom, south of Tehran. When tensions between Ayatollah Montazeri and his powerful mentor escalated in 1987, Hadi Hashemi and his brother, Mehdi, were arrested by the Ministry of Intelligence and Security, the secret police. Mehdi Hashemi was executed later that year on charges of seditious activities against the Islamic Republic.

The political firestorm finally led to the dismissal of Montazeri as Khomeini’s designated successor, a move that opened the way for a much lower-ranking cleric, Ali Khamenei, to succeed Khomeini as the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution after the patriarch’s death in June 1989.

Since then, Montazeri has used religious occasions to criticise the current state of affairs in Iran, particularly the vast powers invested in the Supreme Leader. He was later placed under house arrest and was disowned by all the leading figures in the clerical regime. No one in the senior ranks of the clergy-dominated government paid a visit to Montazeri, or associated himself in any way with his name.

All this made the presence of senior figures such as Khatami, Karrubi, and several newly-ousted government ministers in the wedding ceremony of Montazeri’s grandson all the more surprising.

More strikingly, one of the guests, Mohammad-Ali Abtahi, a former senior aide to Khatami and himself a cleric, posted on his website a photograph showing Khatami and Karrubi sitting next to Montazeri’s son, Ahmad, in the wedding.

“The wedding had the scent of Ayatollah Montazeri”, Abtahi wrote. “Lots of people who rarely see each other renewed greetings”.

Pundits see the cryptic manoeuvring over the wedding as a bid by Khatami and his allies to enlist the support of the elderly ayatollah in the face of the ultra-conservative faction’s apparent determination to rout its rivals within the clerical regime.READ MORE

“By bringing Mr. Montazeri into the picture, the reformists want to tell Mr. Khamenei not to push them too much, or they would go over the red line”, Ian Taylor, a Persian Gulf political analyst, said in a telephone interview from his home in London. “But I’d be very sceptical as to how much weight this threat carries”.

Others share the view that the “insider reformists” – as some call the Khatami faction - are showing all the signs of a spent force with little prospects of recovery.

“They are in complete disarray and total despair”, said Ali Hajilou, an Iranian affairs analyst based in Dubai, of the reformists around the ex-President. “There’s endless bickering among them over who to blame for their political demise, and many of them are already defecting to other factions or retiring from politics altogether”.

Ayatollah Khamenei and his omnipresent security services are undoubtedly keeping a close eye on the latest moves by their rivals, but show no sign of being worried by them. Khamenei seemed to be aiming at his critics within the clerical regime when he told a meeting of ultra-Islamist Bassijis in Tehran on Wednesday that “the Americans are using political and cultural tools and their stooges to change the identity of the Islamic Republic, but America will receive its biggest defeat from the Bassijis”.

Ex U.S. hostages confirm Iran president’s role in embassy siege

Iran Focus: a pro-MEK website

Two former United States hostages held captive in Iran for 444 days when radical Islamists seized the American embassy in Tehran in 1979 told a Persian-language satellite channel that they have no doubts that Iran’s new hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was one of the supervisors of their interrogators during their ordeal.

Retired Army colonel Charles Scott, speaking on Los Angeles-based NITV, said that though Ahmadinejad was not one of his actual interrogators, he supervised interrogation sessions while the 52 hostages were held captive in Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison. Scott added that Ahmadinejad displayed his authority when he ordered the captives to be given small prison cells and said, “These dogs are only allowed to come out of their cells to be executed”. READ MORE

Another former hostage, Kevin Hermening, who was 21 years old at the time, recounted how Ahmadinejad tried to force him to open the embassy’s safe after the takeover. He described Ahmadinejad as one of the leading figures during the ordeal.

Several other former American hostages have also asserted that that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was involved in the embassy takeover.

Last month, White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters that Iran's president was a leader in the student movement that organised the 1979 United States embassy siege and that the U.S. was still determining whether he was a hostage-taker himself.

"We've looked into the allegations that were made about his involvement in the 1979 Iran hostage crisis. We know he was a leader of the student movement that organised the attack on the embassy and the taking of American hostages", McClellan said.

Ahmadinejad is expected to travel to New York in September to take part in the opening ceremonies of the United Nations General Assembly.

Iran sees nuclear agreement with EU as possible

Expatica:

Iran's newly-appointed chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani on Friday said agreement with the European Union over the country's controversial nuclear programme was possible, but reiterated Iran's right to enrich uranium in order to generate nuclear power.

Speaking in Vienna following talks with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, Larijani said the differences between Iran and the E.U. over the nuclear issue were not as great as perceived.

"I don't think the gap is as huge as you consider it," Larijani insisted. "As you know, the Europeans have confirmed our right to nuclear development." READ MORE

Larijani expressed optimism that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would present new proposals aimed at breaking the nuclear negotiation deadlock "within a month".

The E.U. trio of Britain, France and Germany have been involved in talks with Iran aimed at solving the international controversy over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

The United States, above all, suspects that Tehran is secretly developing nuclear weapons with its uranium enrichment programme. Iran however has stressed repeatedly that it has an internationally- defined right to nuclear energy.

Larijani said Iran is unperturbed by the threat of U.N. sanctions.

"With the power that Iran enjoys in the region, there is no way that Iran can be worried about the threat of the Security Council," he said. "This is not in the interest of the E.U. and the U.S."

He further described Iran's current position as a "win-win" situation, adding that the resumption of uranium conversion at the country's Isfahan plant, which is fully supervised by the IAEA, was a "matter of fact".

In Isfahan, uranium ore is converted into hexafluoride gas and stored in the plant. The next step is to feed the gas into centrifuges for the enrichment process, to be effected in another plant at Natanz.

Low-grade enriched uranium is used for nuclear fuel but the same process, at a higher grade, can be used to develop nuclear weapons.

Larijani said that several independent states, among them South Africa, had expressed interest in participating in the nuclear negotiations. "This could have a positive influence on the talks," the official said.

While insisting that Iran's chief partner for dialogue on the nuclear issue remained the IAEA, Larijani said he did not think "the European capacity to negotiate has been passed".

Larijani again stressed that Tehran under the terms of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty still had a right to enrich uranium for energy generation purposes.

"I have the impression that some nuclear powers want to create a nuclear fuel cartel," he said. "I am against nuclear apartheid."

In an underreported a few weeks ago, Larijani revealed his thinking on Iran's nuclear program, when he said:

nuclear weapons would bring more headaches than solutions to Iran...Iran should not rule them out against the country’s enemies...

He argued that:

since Iran possesses nuclear facilities, it is only natural for it to also have a nuclear defense...

Iranian Envoy Insists on Uranium Program

The Billings Gazette:

Tehran's top nuclear envoy said Friday that Iran will not negotiate away its right to enrich uranium and shrugged off threats of possible U.N. action if Tehran insists on possessing technology that could be used to make the bomb. READ MORE

On his first trip abroad as the nuclear point man for Tehran's ultraconservative government, Ali Larijani delivered an old message: Iran will talk to anybody on reducing suspicions about its agenda but will not budge on its central argument that it is permitted to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

Uranium is enriched by turning the raw ore into gas, which is then spun in centrifuges. Enriched to a low level, it can be used as fuel for a reactor; at a high level, it can be used for a bomb.

Larijani spoke to reporters after meeting with Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, for discussions focusing on his country's decision to resume uranium conversion - the precursor to enrichment.

Crude Politics to Keep Oil Price Rising

Andrew Ellson, Times UK:

This week the price of a barrel of oil surged towards $70 a barrel, up more than 65 per cent on the start to the year and near the inflation-adjusted price last seen in 1980, shortly after the Iranian revolution.

Although the latest price spike was triggered by storm worries in the Gulf of Mexico and a bigger-than-expected drop in American supplies of petrol, analysts agree that increasing demand is the principal price driver.

America is showing no let up in its demand for oil while the rapidly expanding economies of India and China are importing ever-larger quantities to meet their demands of growth.

The International Energy Agency estimates that demand for oil will increase to nearly 84 million barrels a day by the end of this year and will reach almost 87 million barrels a day by the end of next year.

But rising demand does not tell the whole story – geopolitical factors are also contributing and could conspire to send prices spiralling towards the "super spike" of $100 a barrel which some analysts warned against earlier this year. And just like in 1979, one country is causing particular concern: Iran. READ MORE

In 1979, Islamic leaders swept to power overthrowing the monarchy. Then, the uncertainty over Iran’s oil supplies sent prices rocketing.

Today, it is not the threat of another revolution but the potential consequences of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons that is agitating world oil markets.

Iran has always claimed that its nuclear ambitions do not go further than developing atomic energy, but growing Persian nationalism and the revelation that the country had been secretly developing a nuclear programme over the past 20 years has increased international suspicions and led to threats of economic sanctions.

Observers question why the country with the fourth largest reserves of oil in the world would need a nuclear energy programme.

The international community, particularly America, seems determined to stop Iran, an Islamic state well within ballistic missile range of Israel, from gaining nuclear weapons. The similarities with the stand-off which developed between the US and Iraq are clear, and the use of military force cannot be ruled out.

Analysts say this uncertainty over the outcome of the nuclear dispute is already adding a considerable "risk premium" to the cost of oil and things are likely to get worse before they get better.

In a research briefing, Jean-Pierre Hellebuyck, the chief investment strategist of AXA, noted that after Saudi Arabia, Iran is the second largest producer of oil within Opec, with an output of 4 million barrels a day.

"In the current market, with supply running perilously close to the maximum that producers can provide, losing Iran’s contribution would really come as a shock, generating a situation of unmanageable chaos," he said.

Another analyst told Times Online that the price of oil could spike to $100 a barrel should the threat of conflict with Iran escalate significantly.

"It is very difficult to quantify the premium for geopolitical risk, but inventory-adjusted demand would suggest a price of around $55 to $60 a barrel. With prices almost hitting $70, you can see how nervous the market is," said the analyst, who asked not to be identified.

"The problem is that there is so little spare production capacity that any increase in the risk of disruption to supply leads to a large spike in the price. This effect can sometimes be amplified by the flows of speculative money.

"It is not like ten or even five years ago when, if something went wrong, the Saudis could just step in and increase production to save the day."

Saudi Arabia is still the world's largest oil exporter but these days it is producing at near capacity. The country's security situation is also a worry for world oil markets with terrorists regularly attacking oil refineries in order to disrupt supply.

Islamic extremists have also been trying to forment discontent with the ruling royal family in Saudi, so the recent death of King Fahd sent oil prices soaring, despite the fact that there was unlikely to be any change in Saudi policy with the succession. Any sign of political instability in Saudi Arabia makes oil dealers very anxious and the result is higher prices.

Nigeria and Venezuela, the fourth and fifth largest Opec producers respectively, also have their own problems.

The political situation in Venezuela is volatile with refineries and shipping often crippled by industrial action, while Nigerian output has previously been disrupted by anti-government rebels hoping to focus the world’s attention on their grievances.

Then there is the ongoing insurgency in Iraq, which does not look anywhere near resolution.

Mr Hellebuyck says that with global politics in a state of turmoil, he can’t see oil prices falling significantly before 2006.

"Regardless of how things evolve, tensions will remain high, and we don’t see how the risk premium on the oil price can contract to any significant degree."

It appears that until demand falls or supply expands significantly oil prices will remain at the mercy of politics.