Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [6/20-3/26] major news events regarding Iran.

This week was the Persian New Year. Happy Nowrooz to our Persian readers!

The EU3 Negotiations with Iran:

• The EU3/Iran "final" negotiations are not final. The talks will continue.
• The EU is studying an Iranian Plan for small-scale uranium enrichment.
• El Baradei wants the US to give Iran "security assurances." The US brushes the idea off.

Developments in Iran's Nuclear Program:

• The MEK reported Iran is secretly enriching uranium.
• Iran has successfully tested its new liquid fuel Shihab 3-A missile with greater range and payload capability.
• Iran is developing a secret "nuclear university."

US Policy and Iran:

• A Top US Diplomat warned Iran to stop interfering in Lebanon.
• Condi's latest thoughts on Iran, in an LA Times interview.
• Stephen Hayes seems to be saying Europe has agreed to support real democracy in Iran, if the negotiations fail?
• Three US Naval Carrier groups are converging on the Middle East.
• Pakistan's Daily Times revealed Condi's pressure to get more information what AQ Khan supplied Iran is getting results.

Popular struggle inside of Iran:

• There were reports of massive demonstrations in Iran following the Iranian win over Japan in an important soccer match in Tehran. The demonstrations are dispersed in neighborhoods all across Iran. The demonstrations were similar to those in the past for such events but the reports of gun fire are a newer development. We are not yet near a tipping point, yet.
• Iranian dissident, Mr. Abbas Amir Entezam, (one of the world’s longest political prisoners) called for a national movement for referendum.
  

Iran's friends outside of Iran:

• The LA Times is reported on the efforts of the CIA and FBI in Los Angeles to find friends and enemies.

Lunacy in the west:

• Western nations are helping Iran stockpile high tech small weapons.
• Britain has donated bullet proof vests to the Iranian security forces.
• Is the Christian Science Monitor preparing to endorse Rafsanjani for president? UPI does something similar and so does The Financial Times. Is the western media willingly ignorant or just desperate? Oh, that they would support the people of Iran in their quest for liberty and democracy instead of selling them out.
  

Iran's Neighbors:

• Pakistan is preparing to hand over a centrifuge to UN inspectors who are investigating Iran.
• A revolution in Kyrgyzstan? Yes.
  
• The Wall Street Journal is reporting evidence of nuclear ties between Iran and India.
• Turkey was does not want Iran to become a nuclear power, says Gunduz Aktan.
• Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told US Congressmen that despite months of press reports to the contrary: "Israel has no intention of attacking Iran..."

Middle East Experts:

• The Ayn Rand Institute observes Iran's problems the west are not economic.
• GlobalSecurity.org explores Iran's reason for purchasing the 12 X-55 cruise missiles.
• The International Crisis Group published a report Iran in Iraq: How Much Influence? Dan Darling reviewed it here.
• The American Enterprise Institute has published a list of important reports on Iran.
• Arnaud de Borchgrave reminds us of the Iranian Mullahs view of America, in their own words.
• Should we be concerned that US military planners are dusting off their military plans for an attack on Iran? Lt. Col. Gordon Cucullu says no.
• The Wall Street Journal said it right: The root cause of the nuclear crisis with Iran is not a shortage of "economic incentives"; it is the nature of the regime.
• OpenDemocracy.net gives eight reasons why the US won't go to war with Iran and then why we will.
• Dr. Jerome Corsi's new book Atomic Iran is now in the bookstores. Due to the Terry Shiavo coverage his appearance on Hannity and Colmes was pre-empted but he is now scheduled to appear this next week. His powerful TV ad is scheduled for release this next Monday. Look for it here soon.
  

And finally, The Quote of the Week:

Mohammed El Baradei sold out the Iranian people:

"Iran must feel assured that no one is thinking of attacking or provoking regime change..."

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.26.2005:

Why does Iran want Cruise Missiles?

GlobalSecurity.org explores Iran's reason for purchasing the 12 X-55 cruise missiles (also known as Kh-55 or AS-15) that Ukraine had illegally sold them.

The author takes a careful look at Iran's options but most disturbing is the possibility of a ship board launched nuclear tipped missile. But a ship board launch capability would require modifications to its merchant fleet. Iran has the skills needed.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• Iran va Jahan argues why elections in Iran are a fraud.
• Dr. Jerome Corsi asks are the US and Israel preparing for war?
• Condi gave the LA Times an interview.
• The western media is falling for Rafsanjani.
• The Ayn Rand Institute observes Iran's problems the west are not economic.
• Iran is stockpiling high tech small weapons.
• Iran threatens world markets, but has serious problems of it own.
• Pakistan is preparing to hand over a centrifuge to UN inspectors who are investigating Iran.
• The Wall Street Journal explains why India wants energy trade agreements with Iran.
• The BBC took a look the curious US airbase in western Afghanistan near Iran that has been the subject of much speculation.
• Mubarak warns of a catastrophe.
• And finally, A Top US Diplomat warns Iran to stop interfering in Lebanon.

Why does Iran want Cruise Missiles?

GlobalSecurity.org explores Iran's reason for purchasing the 12 X-55 cruise missiles (also known as Kh-55 or AS-15) that Ukraine had illegally sold them.

The author takes a careful look at Iran's options but most disturbing is the possibilty of a ship board launch nuclear tipped missile. But a ship board launch capability would require modifications to its merchant fleet. Iran has the skills needed:

Iran Shipbuilding and Offshore Industries Complex [ISOICO] is a qualified Iranian company, active as shipbuilder and shiprepairer of different types of vessels and contractor of offshore structures. It operates from a production premises on the Persian Gulf (37 km west Bandar Abbas City), shipping to any location offshore or onshore. ...

ISOICO shipyard is capable of constructing any type of vessel up to about 4 x 80,000 DWT per year on its existing building berths mainly bulk carrier, containership and oil product carrier using advance technology, which after accomplishing the development in process (i.e. two Dry Docks) the constructing capability will increase for the vessel up to about 2 x 300,000 DWT VLCC or 2 x 140,000 m3 LNG carrier per year in addition to the existing capacity.

Illegitimate Regime and Fraudulent Elections

Shaheen Fatemi, Iran va Jahan makes clear why the coming elections in Iran are a fraud:

In spite of the long 2-week New Year holiday in Iran, the political pot continues to boil. Taking advantage of the holiday mood and the absence of students on campuses, the regime is trying to seize the initiative by putting forth a vast propaganda scheme around the theme of 'presidential election' scheduled for June of 2005. The nature of the public reaction to this latest version of deceitful 'democratic' pretension of the regime ranges from indifference to outright hostility.

The clerics ruling Iran have played many hoaxes on the gullible world press and public opinion. These range from their deceitful nuclear shell game to 'accidental' death of Zahra Kazemi, who died of 'heart-attack' while she was being tortured in 'judicial custody.' Their so-called 'elections,' in my opinion top all their other games and no journalist or so-called 'western expert' has ever tried to honestly expose this colossal fraud.

Free and honest elections are the oxygen of democracies. Without them no government system can claim legitimacy. They are the best and so far the only mechanism guaranteeing representative government. The mechanical aspect of marking a secret ballot and depositing it in the ballot-box is only the tip of the iceberg. Many other aspects of democratic process such as freedom of speech and assembly as well as a free press are sine qua non of this exercise. If candidates are not free to speak and express themselves and/or the press is not free to publish and broadcast these views, the public can not be fully informed and therefore unable to reach an informed judgment as a basis of choice among the candidates.

The question of eligibility of candidates is generally established by law and is generally restricted to specifications such as nationality, age and residence. Every citizen that meets such requirements is eligible to vote. Any other arbitrary restriction imposed by the government is a violation of rights of the citizens and violates fundamental human rights.

For the past twenty-six years every one of these principles has been violated during the elections in IRI and no international objection has been raised. No one has asked how a regime could claim democratic legitimacy when it violates the most fundamental pre-requisites of a fair and free election.
Let us look at the facts:

1. Freedom of the press has not existed in the Islamic Republic even for one day during its entire life. According to impartial international organizations such as Amnesty International and 'Reporters Without Borders' there are more journalists in jail and more newspapers banned in Iran than any other country in the world.
2. Freedom of assembly is denied to the people of Iran. Over the past two-decades there has not been one single street demonstration allowed. All forms of public protests are forbidden unless authorized by the government. Permits for such gatherings are not issued to groups which are not puppets of the regime. Whenever there is any spontaneous gathering of people, plain-clothes security and intelligence agents or hoodlums hired by the regime invade the gathering, brutalize the civilians and leave the scene. Then the uniform security forces arrive and arrest everyone for illegal assembly!
3. Judicial protection which is fundamental to the functioning of any democratic society has been denied to the Iranian public including candidates and the electorate. Even the lawyers who attempt to represent dissidents are arrested and put in jail. The judicial system instead of serving as a bastion of support for the citizens against transgressions of the state has become an instrument of suppression and part of the state security system.
4. On top of all these barriers to the free exercise of electoral rights there is one additional handicap. After the candidates register their name, a group of Mullahs appointed by other non-elected officials will decide on the 'suitability' of the candidates. During every election since the revolution hundreds and sometimes thousands of legitimate candidates have been barred from running on absolutely arbitrary grounds by this committee. READ ALL

It is because of these basic violations of citizen's rights that recently more and more elections are being boycotted by the people and only a very small fraction of the electorate pay any attention to these fraudulent and deceitful acts. The question remains why the European governments who all have embassies in Tehran and are fully aware of these facts, continue to deal with the Mullahs as if they were legitimate representatives of the Iranian people?

U.S., Israel preparing for Iran war?

Dr. Jerome Corsi reports that on March 10, units of the U.S. Army's European Command stationed in Germany have been in Israel to conduct joint exercises with the Israeli Defense Forces designed to test their combined ability to down an attack of Shahab-3 missiles launched from Iran against Israel. READ MORE

Code-named "Juniper Cobra," these exercises test the linking of U.S. Patriot missile systems with Israel's Arrow-2 missile-defense systems. The Arrow-2 system is designed to intercept incoming missiles at high altitudes to reduce the fallout damage from nuclear warheads. The Patriot systems are a second line of defense, designed to intercept missiles at lower altitudes. Also involved in the exercises is a U.S. missile ship carrying Aegis anti-missile systems.

U.S. military authorities deny that the exercises have anything to do with the current tensions over Iran's apparently determined drive to develop nuclear weapons secretly. Still, the scenario being tested involves missiles launched against Israel from a "red" whose identity is supposed "unknown," even though the aggressors just happen to speak Farsi. The last Juniper Cobra operation was reportedly conducted in 2001, just before the start of the war in Iraq against Saddam Hussein.

The point of this combined exercise has not gone unnoticed in Tehran. Iran retaliated by announcing this week that tests of the Shahab-3 missile conducted in September of last year proved they had made breakthroughs in the development of the intermediate-range missile. The mullahs stressed that the September test fulfilled all technical expectations, proving fast and accurate at a range of 1,700 kilometers, more than enough to reach Tel Aviv.

In other words, the mullahs want to be sure we all know they have an improved version, a weapon maybe more sophisticated than Operation Juniper Cobra is testing against.

This Operation Juniper Cobra is not expected to end until mid-April. Put this together with what appears to be a convergence of U.S. carrier battle groups in the region, and the preparations for war are hard to miss.

No wonder we have had a barrage of war denials in recent days from President Bush, as well as Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon of Israel and Tony Blair of the UK. With U.S. military bases now surrounding Iran and approximately 150,000 seasoned U.S. Marines and Army forces in the region, speaking softly hardly conceals the reality of the big stick.

How credible could the mullahs pledge not to develop weapons be when almost every day another lie comes to light? This week there are new charges that Iran is still enriching uranium at a secret underground facility in the Parchin military complex outside Tehran.

Maybe President Bush has just decided to play the mullahs' own game. The president sounds very reasonable when he insists he prefers a diplomatic solution – a little too reasonable to be completely consistent with his second inaugural address or his State of the Union speech.

Terrorists like to talk to buy time, but this president is cagey, too. As the dance drags on, the internal dissent within Iran has a chance to grow, especially if senators like Rick Santorum, R-Pa., and Sam Brownback, R-Kan., and Representatives like Steve King, R-Iowa, succeed in building a congressional consensus that reaches in solidarity across to the opposition groups within Iran. Is it possible that we could see a protest in the streets of Tehran like the ones we just witnessed in Beirut?

Stalled talks can't last forever. What happens if the mullahs refuse to take active steps to destroy their centrifuge farms and dismantle their heavy-water facilities? Well, there is always the military option. That option is very obviously left on the table, even if the president doesn't talk about it very much.

LA Times: Interview With Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice

The LA Times interviewed Condoleezza Rice. Here are a few excerpts on Iran.

QUESTION: On Iran, the Europeans are arguing essentially that time is now on our side -- that with the agreement for a freeze and with the IAEA monitoring the freeze, it's the Iranians who are in a hurry to get a deal and that they are effectively contained. Do you accept that, and does that mean that we do have time to negotiate onward?

SECRETARY RICE: Well, it's always better to resolve these things as soon as you can, not later, because Iran is a very closed society.... It's not Iraq. It has people going back and forth. It was a dissident group that exposed Natanz. And so you have some sources of information, but they are by no means perfect. And so you want as soon as possible to get a handle on the Iranian program.

I do think that we made a lot of progress over the last several weeks, in that we found that when I was in Europe the first time and the president was in Europe, that somehow the conversation had shifted to what the United States was going to do rather than to what the Iranians were going to do, and this is now clearly back on the ground that the Iranians have certain obligations to meet, that there is a unified view of what those obligations are, that there is a unified approach to those, to getting the Iranians to live up to those obligations.

And so we're certainly in better shape than we were several weeks ago, but I would hope that the Iranians would want to demonstrate sooner rather than later that they really do now intend to live up to those obligations because a lot is riding on it.

QUESTION: Are you comfortable that the current freeze amounts to containment of the Iranian program?

SECRETARY RICE: I do not think you can ever be certain of any such thing. It is better than nothing to have a freeze, obviously. But the real goal here has to be that the Iranians make a choice ... that they are not going to engage in activities that heighten suspicion that they're trying to get a nuclear weapon under cover of civilian nuclear program. And there are some very clear steps they could take to do that, and they have to be steps that are not easily reversible.

And so this is where we are and, as I said, it's a better place than we were a little while ago. But that's because the world is unified. I even thought ... that the Russian agreement with the Iranians -- while we don't understand why the Iranians would want civilian nuclear power at all given their tremendous energy reserves -- but at least the Russian agreement also speaks to the question of proliferation risk in terms of fuel take-backs and provision of fuel rather than allowing the Iranians to reprocess.

QUESTION: The approach towards Iran is they are not allowed to enrich. Is this a new interpretation by the administration of the NPT [Non-Proliferation treaty] -- that all signatory states to the treaty should no longer be allowed to enrich -- or are you setting aside a category of states that this would apply?

SECRETARY RICE: The president said [in a 2004 speech at the National Defense University] that he thought to reduce proliferation risk it would be best if there were essentially no more enrichment and reprocessing, that ... there is such great proliferation risk associated with it that it would be better. The G-8 agreed to then ... promote a one-year moratorium.

There are states that point to, in the NPT, the access that is granted to states ... who are in good standing in the NPT to civilian nuclear power development. I think it's a question of how one interprets "civilian nuclear power development." There are lots of ways to develop civilian nuclear power without reprocessing and enriching, and given the proliferation risk, it would probably be a better thing if this remained where it is now ... and you could have provision of fuel by, you know, the Nuclear Suppliers Group....

And one thing the president looks forward to is continuing discussions about how we close this loophole in the NPT, because it is a loophole that countries have used.... For instance, the North Koreans used it to gain access to civilian nuclear power but to continue activities that were closed and unclear -- and, in some cases, as the North Koreans said, very clear -- as to what they were doing.

So that's been the course that the president has laid out. We're still in discussions with people. I think there has been some interest in the high levels of the IAEA in this same kind of idea and everybody recognizes that there is a proliferation risk associated with reprocessing and enrichment.

QUESTION: U.S. officials in Iraq have from time to time raised questions with their Iraqi counterparts about the presence of Iranian influence. Before the election, there was talk about how much are the Iranians supporting one candidate. Since then, there has been talk, I guess, about will there be people with Iranian links in some of the security-related ministries.

What's your level of concern about that issue? A new government is about to be formed. Will there be an important Iranian influence in it?

SECRETARY RICE: Let me start by saying it is in many ways the Iraqi government, or members of the Iraqi government, who have most often raised the Iranian issue. And I would make a distinction. Iran is Iraq's neighbor. They have not had particularly good relations over the years, but it's a neighbor, and so we would be the first to say that we would hope there would be good, transparent relations between Iran and Iraq.

But that does mean that the kind of activities that Iranian security forces might carry on ... that might be intended at destabilizing somehow the environment, or non-transparently influencing the course of affairs, that that would not be welcome. And so there's a distinction here between relations with Iran, which are going to happen because it's a neighbor, and non-transparent relations with Iran.

A number of people sought exile in Iran, have relations with Iran, but I don't detect from most of the key leaders in Iraq any desire to exchange the yoke of Saddam Hussein for the yoke of Khamenei. I just don't detect that. The Iraqis have a very different tradition in terms of the role of clerics. You might have noticed what the Iraqi Shia have said about the role of clerics, even in this coming new government. It is quite different from the Iranian tradition.

And given that there are also cultural and other differences between them, I think that if the Iraqis are left to their own devices they will find an Iraqi way to incorporate Islam into a democratic path of development, not seek to mimic in any way what the Iranians have done. And so this is really a question about letting the Iraqis have their own path to the relationship between democracy and Islam. I think that's what you are sometimes hearing and you're hearing it ... more from Iraqis than you are from anyone else. ...

QUESTION: You've taken American diplomacy, in a sense, into a revived multilateralism, but it seems to be a multilateralism focused more upon coalition building and coalitions of the willing. How would you define your approach? ...

When it's Iran, again, the EU-3 have ... taken the lead here. The United States then can support the EU-3 diplomacy. So American leadership is essential in international politics, but it doesn't always mean that the United States has to be in the lead on each and every single issue. Sometimes we should work in a regional grouping ... like we're doing in the six-party talks and like we did for tsunami relief. Sometimes I think we'll find ourselves working through the United Nations, as we're trying to do on Sudan. Sometimes I think we will find ourselves working directly with the Europeans, as we have on Iran.

But the one thing is that on these broad trends that are developing out there, and trying to promote those, that really is the work of a community with shared values. That is the work of people who understand that others sacrificed for them so that they could have those aspirations met. And we started with our European allies but we have similar values in Asia that we can mobilize. We have similar values in Latin America. I'll go soon to the Community of Democracies in Santiago. There are African states who share those values. One of the most touching elements of supports for what happened in Iraq was out of Rwanda, where they said, "How could people turn their backs on what was happening in terms of mass graves in Iraq?" Because of what had happened in Rwanda. So that's how I would describe it.

The Western Media Suddenly Loves Rafsanjani

The western press continues to back the corrupt Rafsanjani for president of Iran. It is disgusting.

Death to "Diplomacy" with Mullahs

Elan Journo writing for the Ayn Rand Institute observes not all problems are economic. He points to the current EU3 negotiations with Iran.

The European deal--which is said to include the sale of civilian aircraft and membership for Iran in the World Trade Organization--rests on the notion that no one would put abstract goals or principles ahead of gaining a steady flow of economic loot. And so, if only we could negotiate a deal that gives Iran a sufficiently juicy carrot, it would forgo its ambitions.

But to believe that Iran really hungers for nuclear energy (as it claims) is sheer fantasy. Possessing abundant oil and gas reserves, Iran is the second-largest oil producer in OPEC. To believe that it values prosperity at all is equally fantastic; Iran is a theocracy that systematically violates its citizens' right to political and economic liberty.

What Iran desires is a nuclear weapon--the better to threaten and annihilate the impious in the West and in Iran's neighborhood. Iran declares its anti-Western ambitions stridently. At an official parade in 2003, Iran flaunted a Shihab-3 missile draped with a banner announcing: "Israel must be wiped out." A missile paraded last year declared another of Iran's targets: "We will crush America under our feet."

Iran Stockpiling High-Tech Small Arms

The Associated Press reports that Iran is quietly building a stockpile of thousands of high-tech small arms and other military equipment -- from armor-piercing snipers' rifles to night-vision goggles. The US fears that some of this is headed for Iraq.

Iran threatens world markets, but has its own problems

After two years of rapid growth, Iran's stock market is plummeting. The Financial Times spoke with Khosro Pourmemar, managing director of brokers Pars Nemoodgar. READ MORE

A lot of expatriate money came in during 2003-4, feeding rising prices in real estate, especially near the Caspian sea, and in stocks," said Khosro Pourmemar, managing director of brokers Pars Nemoodgar. "Part is now moving out." ...

Iran's Parliment isn't helping the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE):

"Deputies have voted to freeze prices of many goods and to reduce profit rates," said Mr Pourmemar. This will affect the profits of some listed companies, including the two private banks.

"Privatisation has been primarily a means for the government to bridge a deficit," said Mr Pourmemar. "There is no notion of improving productivity, introducing private management, or developing capital markets. But the country cannot succeed without creating a real private sector." ...

"But pessimists look at the elections and see no new ideas and no new faces, said a broker. They worry that pressure from outside means tighter rule at home and that in turn means more bad politics, more bad economic policy, and no markets."

Pakistan preparing to hand over centrifuge to investigators

UN investigators will soon have the evidence they need to determine how far Iran's nuclear program has progressed. Pakistan is preparing to hand over one of its uranium centrifuges to UN investigators. The Financial Times reports:

Senior western diplomats in Islamabad said that Pakistan had reached agreement with the IAEA and was now negotiating logistics such as transportation details. “It's no more a question of 'if'. It's more a matter of how the centrifuge parts would be transported,” said one.

Why India wants a deal with Iran

While the US is frustrated with India's attempts to secure energy agreements with Iran, the Wall Street Journal points out India's motivation:

India imports 70% of its crude-oil requirements. But this could rise to more than 90% by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris, if India's economy keeps growing at its current pace of about 7% per year.

BBC: All Quiet on Afghanistan's Western Front

The BBC visited the US airbase in western Afghanistan, 50 miles from Iran, that has been the subject of much speculation of US intentions towards Iran. READ MORE

The BBC reported:

The American commander for the region denies Iran is the focus for the US troops he controls.

"The US presence in western Afghanistan is for reconstruction and economic development. We have done no operations along the Iranian border, and I have no knowledge of operations along the Iranian border," says Col Phil Bookert at his headquarters in Herat city, two hours drive to the north.

"That is not why we are here," he continues. "We're here to do reconstruction and economic development activities in Herat and Farah provinces, and they happen to border Iran.

The BBC concludes:

Although troops have repaired key parts of the base including holes in the runway - some caused by US bombing in 2001 - there is little sign Shindand is being prepared for a larger role just yet.

Mubarak warns the US against military action against Iran

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said:

"We tell our American friends that we must distance ourselves from a destructive war," Mubarak said in an interview on France-3 television. "I think a military initiative could constitute a catastrophe for the entire region," he said.

US Diplomat: Iran and Syria interferring in Lebanon

A Top US Diplomat accused Iran of being behind several of the recent bombings in Lebanon.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield condemned the bombings in a news conference after meeting with Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir, the head of the Maronite Catholic Church, who met with President George W. Bush in Washington last week.

"This violence has no excuse. All those responsible will be directly accountable for what they have done. There should be no attempt to play games with the stability in Lebanon. There should be no attempt to upset the stability in this country," Satterfield said.

"It is for the Lebanese people, and not for any outside power...including Iran and Syria or any parties which they support, to interfere with the will of the Lebanese people," he said.

Friday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.25.2005:

Reports of Huge Demonstrations in Iran after Soccer Win over Japan

The main stream media largely ignored the protests. Iran Press News reported heavy security forces and the jamming of the TV satellite broadcasts from outside Iran. They also reported 3 dead and 32 injured. The Student Movement also reported hundreds injured and arrested throughout Iran.

The demonstrations were similar to past demonstrations for such events but the reports of gun fire are a newer development. We are not yet near a tipping point, yet.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• The MEK reported Iran is secretly enriching uranium.
• Britain has donated bullet proof vests to the Iranian security forces.
• The International Crisis Group published a report Iran in Iraq: How Much Influence? Dan Darling reviewed it here.
• And finally, it had been incorrectly reported that Froud Fouladvand's "Operation Thunder One" was scheduled for today. It was NOT. (see update)
  

Update on Protests

Reports are coming in of demonstrations taking place all over Iran (Tehran, Esfhan, Tabriz, Abadan, and others) against the regime, using the soccer victory over Japan as an excuse to go into the streets. The victory is an excuse for people to go into the streets. The people can claim the are celebrating their victory while those in their midst demonstrate against the regime.

The reports say that the demonstrations are dispersed in neighborhoods all across Iran. The streets are being jammed with traffic and thousands are gathering in the center of each of these demonstrations. These traffics jams are apparently protecting the demonstrators. The reports further state that those in the center of these demonstrations can be heard making statements against the regime. In a new development, there are calls for "armed resistance" and some are raising guns (a capital offense against the regime).

Due to the extremely high volume of traffic in the streets, the regime’s security forces are unable to send reinforcements to those areas where the demonstrations are getting more out the regime's control. Some are reporting that the security forces in many areas are frightened by the increasing size of the crowds.

It is now midnight in Iran. I have been told that people are continuing to go into the streets.

It is my sense that this is not the event we are all waiting for but one more step in that direction.

Still, I will continue to report these events as they unfold.

I will begin cataloguing these reports here.

The Student Movement website daneshjoo.org has published several reports: See them here, here and here.

Update: The main stream media largely ignored the protests. The BigNewNetwork referenced Iran Press News two report here and here. They mentioned the heavy security and the jamming of the TV satellite broadcasts from outside Iran. They also reported 3 dead and 32 injured. The Student Movement also reported hundreds injured and arrested throughout Iran. They also reported:

Hundreds have been admitted to hospitals and many are missing. Tens of female protesters were seen thrown into patrol cars or buses as they denounced the Islamic regime's Gender Apartheid policy and also participated in street demos.

Angry crowd retaliated to the militiamen and plainclothes agents brutal attacks with pieces of stone and incendiary devices. Reports of use of fire arms has been reported from the western City of Mahabad and in the Rey district of the Capital by masked individuals rushing to rescue demonstrators.

Several militiamen were seen wounded and transferred by their colleagues in Rey. Some had to escape from their burning patrol cars following the use of incendiary devices by maverick young Iranians .

Heavy damages were made to collective buses and public materials.

Same riots are expected to take place as early as next week, as the Iranian National Team will be playing N. Korea for the qualification games of the 2006 Soccer World Cup.

Strange Things are happening to my blog

For some reason my blog has been having problems. It appears I may have resolved them. Please be patient.

Reports of Huge Demonstrations in Iran after Soccer Win over Japan

There are reports of massive demonstrations in Iran following the Iranian win over Japan in an important soccer match in Tehran.

Pro-democracy forces have used such events in the past to demonstrate their hatred of the regime. Massive security forces have been mobilized around the country to keep the demonstrations from getting out of control. Complicating matters have been threats by one opposition movement to launch "Operation Thunder One." The operation, lead by Dr. Froud Fouladvand who broadcasts from the UK, is calling for "armed resistance."

I am getting preliminary reports and I will be publishing more about this soon, as reports come in. It is evening in Iran and it could be a long evening.

UPDATE: I have been told that Froud Fouladvand's "Operation Thunder One" was NOT launched today as had been reported. I have been told that the operation is still in development and that there are six elements to the operation. Stay tuned...

MEK says Iran is secretly enriching uranium

Alireza Jafarzadeh, an Iranian exile who has reported accurately in the past about hidden atomic facilities in Iran now says Iran is secretly purifying uranium for use in nuclear weapons at a recently-constructed underground facility at a military complex called Parchin.

"Iran has completed an underground tunnel-like facility in Parchin, which is now engaged in laser enrichment," said Alireza Jafarzadeh, an Iranian exile who has reported accurately in the past about hidden atomic facilities in Iran.

"This underground site is camouflaged and built in an area of Parchin that deals with the chemical industry," he told Reuters by telephone on Thursday from Washington, citing "well-placed sources inside the Iranian regime."

Iran in Iraq: How Much Influence? A Review

A few days ago the International Crisis Group published a report Iran in Iraq: How Much Influence? The report did not square with other reports I read I felt it was important to have a serious review done of it. So I asked analyst, Dan Darling, if he would mind reviewing it. He did and it was published over at WindsofChange.net in two parts. Part 1 and Part 2.

Guess who gave free armored vests given to Iran

Britain has donated bullet proof vests to the Iranians for their security forces. Tehran has promised to use them for their military. I feel better now. Iran is so good at keeping its promises.

Thursday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.24.2005:

The EU Is Studying Iranian Plan For Small-Scale Uranium Enrichment.

Iran made the proposal to be allowed to run a pilot centrifuge project for uranium enrichment at a meeting in Paris on Wednesday with EU negotiators Britain, France and Germany, according to a European official who asked not to be named. ...

But a senior European diplomat told AFP: If you want to have an agreement, both sides will have to compromise.”

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• The Wall Street Journal is reporting evidence of nuclear ties between Iran and India.
• The EU3/Iran "final" negotiations are not final.
• With the failure of Khomeini's ideology, Rafsanjani is the new darling of the media. A terrible idea.
• More protests in Iran.
• Is Ayatollah Sistani key to the end of Iran's Khomeini's revolution?
• Iran has successfully tested its new liquid fuel Shihab 3-A missile with greater range and payload capability.
• Condi calls for democracy in Iran, again.
• And finally, a revolution in Kyrgyzstan?

EU Studying Iranian Plan For Small-Scale Uranium Enrichment

The AFP is reporting that the EU is considering an Iranian proposal to allow the Islamic republic to produce enriched uranium on a small scale.

Iran made the proposal to be allowed to run a pilot centrifuge project for uranium enrichment at a meeting in Paris on Wednesday with EU negotiators Britain, France and Germany, according to a European official who asked not to be named. ... READ MORE

Experts have told AFP the idea is to have from 500 to 2,000 centrifuges instead of the 54,000 centrifuges Iran has said it wants to build, an industrial-style arrangement which could produce large amounts of fuel for civilian nuclear reactors but also in highly enriched form the explosive core of atom bombs.

The official said the European trio were “going to look at this (the Iranian proposal) with experts.

“If the experts find a way to monitor this in an effective way (to guarantee that Iran can not enrich uranium to make nuclear weapons), then why not,” the official said. ...

But a senior European diplomat told AFP: “If you want to have an agreement, both sides will have to compromise.”

Kyrgyz Government HQ 'Stormed'

A revolution in Kyrgyzstan?

Evidence of Nuclear Ties Between Iran and India

While the US is putting more pressure on India to abandon its plans with Iran. The Wall Street Journal charges that India has also been aiding Iran's nuclear program.

An official working on nonproliferation issues in the Bush administration says there is strong evidence that Dr. Prasad [retired Indian nuclear scientist] -- and to a lesser extend Dr. Surendar -- passed to Iran the technology needed to extract tritium from heavy-water reactors. Such reactors are used in India and in Canada, where Dr. Prasad studied heavy-water nuclear technology on a three-year scholarship in the 1960s. READ MORE

Tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen, generates its own luminosity and is used commercially as a light source in flares and watch dials. It can also enhance the explosive power of nuclear weapons when heated and compressed by the detonation of a nuclear device fueled by plutonium or uranium.

Drs. Prasad and Surendar deny they had any role in passing on tritium technology. Dr. Prasad asserts that the U.S. targeted him as a warning to New Delhi to back away from its embrace of Tehran. "It's purely energy politics," he says. The U.S. is seeking to "control the relationship between Iran and India."

Iran's Unlikely Champion

M.D. Nalapat, United Press International has written an important analysis of the failure of Khomeini's ideology. It is a must read.

Unlike its Sunni counterpart, the theology of which has often been used by autocrats to profess a divine sanction for their license, Shiite Islam had at its theological core the concept of the separation of mosque from state.

The philosophy was clear that until the 12th imam of legend returned from his occultation to take over governance, the clergy were to leave temporal matters alone. It took nearly a thousand years for this tradition to get diluted when, in 1501, the Safavids installed Shiite Islam as the religion of the state.

Almost a half a century later, the Shiite tradition of separation of temporal from spiritual got wholly subverted by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who implemented his innovation of a "Velayet-i-Faqih." He -- in the same way as Sunni rulers -- had "divine" sanction to run the administration the way he saw it. This perversion of genuine Shiite tradition has resulted in a crisis of identity in Iran, where those who can be accurately described as "Khomeinist" rather than Shiite or even Muslim rule in the name of the creed they have rendered unrecognizable from its roots.

Given the tension that has existed between Shiite and Sunni Islam from the death of the Prophet Mohammad in AD 632, it is remarkable how closely "Khomeinism" follows in its chemistry and practices a like perversion of Sunni Islam that was invented by Abdul Wahhab, who died in the 18th century, and has now supplanted Islam as the state religion of Saudi Arabia.

Wahhabi followers were apologists for the absolutist prerogatives of the House of Saud, into which his progeny married. It eventually became the religious duty of every Wahhabi to obey the clan that been grafted onto the bulk of the Arabian peninsula with help given by the British.

The difference in Iran was that instead of installing another royal house to replace the Pahlavis, Khomeini installed the dictatorship of a supreme cleric, himself, with the right to choose his successor as the next "holy" despot.

There is the same intolerance of dissent and support to absolutism in Khomeinism as is found in Wahabbism. The ayatollah's teachings reflect the same blood lust and contempt for "unbelievers" as Abdul Wahhab's. Today, the effective control of all Iran's state instruments of coercion is in the hands of Khomeini's successor as supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, in the same way as they are vested in the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia. Neither the armed forces, nor the police, nor religious paramilitaries such as the Basij, are answerable to President Mohammad Khatami, who was elected to office by 26 million votes.

No, they report to Khamenei, who technically consults an 80-member Assembly of Experts, which is itself selected by a 12-member Council of Guardians, half of whom are directly appointed by Khamenei and the other half from a list put up by the head of Iran's judiciary -- who is also selected by Khamenei.

Only Saddam Hussein, King Fahd, 'Papa Doc' Duvalier and Kim Jong Il ever had regimes that could match his near-absolute power.

The supreme leader of Iran, in view of his Khomeini-gifted access to the Almighty, is also the appointing authority for the aptly named Expediency Council, which has the power to grant exceptions to the Sharia laws of Islam in case such deviations are expedient.

This body -- now headed by former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani -- arbitrates between the Council of Guardians and the elected parliament, the Majlis, which -- lacking divine approval -- has almost no authority. Most of its members were "elected" by the effective expedient of Khamenei's disqualifying all serious candidates from the contest.

The bodies ostensibly created to protect Islam in practice condone the flouting of Sharia law whenever the enforcement of this is judged to be incompatible with the interests of the Khomeinists clergy who now run Iran.

Now that it has followed the Saudi example of converting religion itself into an ideology that protects the powers of the ruling clique, Khamenei and his men have transformed themselves from spiritual leaders into political bosses, responsible for reducing the elected government of Iran to impotence.

Iranians have internalized a cultural tradition that was advanced and sophisticated even 1,500 years before the Prophet Mohammed revealed the Koran in AD 610. More than 15 years after Khomeini ravaged and sought to uproot these ancient Persian traditions, they still exist, though sometimes in an attenuated way.

For example, some Jewish synagogues still function in the country in contrast to Saudi Arabia, where any public expression of a faith other than Wahabbism is treated as criminal.

Even those close to Khomenei, such as Abolhassan Bani Sadr, expected that he would revert to Shiite tradition and leave government to the laity once the Shah was removed from his throne. They were wrong. Khomenei -- unlike almost all his pre-1979 close associates -- took his concept of "Velayet-i-Faqih" seriously, and ensured that it supplanted more orthodox doctrine.

Within the Shiite clergy, powerful voices such as Ayatollah Montazeri were uneasy with this entry of the mullahs into the seats of government. These traditionalists saw how several of the Khomeinists had begun to enrich themselves, thanks to the fact that more than 80 percent of Iran's economy was state-controlled. They saw how the vigorous intellectual debates that have historically been a distinguishing characteristic of Shiite Islam was headed for extinction.

It is small wonder that many of them later joined the overwhelming majority of Iranians in backing a reformist cleric, Mohammad Khatami, for president of Iran.

Five years later, though, it has become clear Khatami has no stomach to take on Khamenei over the issue of the rights of the elected government. He has conceded to the despots their power and, as a result, the reform movement has become discredited.

Ironically, opposition to Khamenei's absolutist rule is beginning to emerge from a group of Iranian conservatives who seek to put a president into office who -- unlike Khatami -- will have the dexterity and muscle to wield real rather than merely formal power.

Their candidate for the 2006 presidential elections is the current head of the Expediency Council, former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who may be just be wily enough to ensure that the Council of Guardians returns to the boundaries set by Shiite tradition for the clergy.

Can a President Rafsanjani succeed where Khatami failed, that is, bring Iran closer to democracy by taking back the powers now exercised by the supreme leader? To do so, he will need to work out an alliance with liberal groups in Iran, and ensure that he delivers at least some part of the freedoms they expect.

In Taiwan and South Korea, unlikely leaders have steered their systems to real democracy from authoritarianism, without any mass upsurge acting as a goad. Ironically for those who believe the Bush presidency to be an unmitigated disaster, it is fear of a U.S. or an Israeli strike against Iran that is holding back the Khomeinists from greater acts of repression against a population now openly contemptuous of the ayatollah's legacy.

The sight of Saddam Hussein emerging from his pit has been a lesson to many Khomeinists in Iran of the external checks to their authority.

Were a poll to be taken today measuring the Iranian people's attitude toward Khomenism, fewer than one in 10 would back the philosophy Shiite became under Khomeini. Women in particular chafe at the Saudi-style restrictions that have been placed on them since 1979, especially those related to dress, although in the job market, they have retained most of the rights that are till today denied their Saudi sisters.

Despite the years of repression in Khomeinist Iran, women there are slowly reclaiming the space that they lost in 1979. Even within the armed forces, many are dissatisfied with conditions in Iran and are eager to emigrate to Europe or to North America. It is only the privileged followers of the Khomeinist creed -- such as the Revolutionary Guard (which, ironically , has become the most formidable defender of the status quo) or the Basij militia -- who support Khamenei and his cohorts in today's Iran.

Recently, the Shahid Behesti University in Teheran organized a conference on Religion and Human Rights in which speakers from the clergy -- such as Mohammed Shabestari, Mohsen Kadivar, Ali Mirmoussavi and Rahim Nobahar -- explicitly called for the separation of mosque from state and supported the rights of women and minorities to equal treatment.

Were such a meeting to have taken place in Saudi Arabia, the speakers and most of the participants would have been arrested.

Despite a written protest from the Basij against the conference, the fact that the university authorities have thus far remained unmolested indicates that opposition to the Khomeinists is becoming too widespread to suppress.

Indeed, these days, visitors to Iran are surprised by the vehemence with which those clustered around the supreme leader are being criticized. Should such a trend develop, Iran may yet experience a renaissance that would recapture both the glory of its heritage as well as the intellectual freedom that has separated Shiite Islam from its Sunni counterpart for much of Islamic history.

Those close to two prospective candidates for the 2005 presidential election -- Rafsanjani and former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati -- say that neither individual favors the Khomeinist "subordination of Iranian interests to the struggle against the U.S. and Israel."

Few in Iran have forgotten that during the brutal war initiated by Saddamite Iraq in 1980, the entire Palestinian leadership backed Saddam. Possibly because of the way these two conservatives have subtly distanced themselves from the hard-line positions held by Khamenei, the supreme leader is believed to be nurturing a group of political leaders who may be used to challenge Rafsanjani and Velayeti.

This emerging radical group is led by Teheran Mayor Ahmed Najed and Ali Larjani, an adviser to the supreme leader. They share several of the biases against modernity and tolerance of the Saudi Wahabbists, although the latter have these days chosen discretion to their customary volubility. Indeed, in its core philosophy, this Iranian neo-Khomeinism intends to drive an essentially moderate people into the hell of a Talibanized state. Were Khamenei to repeat in the presidential elections his success in stifling democracy in the parliamentary polls, Iran would revert to the chaos of 1979-1989.

While the backers of Osama Bin Laden have fallen largely silent in Saudi Arabia, in Iran they are open about their admiration for him, volubly backing his war against the modern world.

Had Iranian society been as unlettered as the desert communities of Saudi Arabia, Khamenei would have succeeded in creating another Afghanistan by now. However, his radicalism is coming under heavy fire from much of civil society in Iran, creating the prospect of a Second Revolution that does away with the Khomeinist despotism that replaced that of the Pahlavis.

A vigorous opposition from the international community to the clerics in authority would speed up this necessary process.

With its influence in the Islamic world, its location and the versatility of its people, Iran is a putative great power. Any transformation from its present torpor can only come about from the forces within the country that favor a renaissance to overthrow the despotism of the Khomeinists.

While this is a battle that is largely being fought by the Iranians themselves, the rest of the world can help by avoiding any pandering to the fanatics, and by raising the cost to the Iranian ruling class of its Talibanite tendencies.

Were the international community to devote itself to the campaign for the victory of democracy in Iran to the degree of attention that it is focusing on Myanmar, for example, the people of Iran could speedily do the rest of the job, so brittle is the backing for the Khomeinists in present-day Iran.

(M.D. Nalapat is a professor of geopolitics at India's Manipal Academy of Higher Education.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

My major concern with this analysis is that it assumes Rafsanjani can be reborn as a moderate. It is more likely that an Iran under Rafsanjani would remain a strong man state but more akin to Saddam than Khomeini. We must not fool ourselves in thinking that Rafsanjani is the solution. He is part of the problem. Iran does not need a new strong man it needs a real democracy.

Students, Teachers, Workers Stage Protests

Radio Free Europe reports more student protests in Iran. The protests at Amir-Kabir University have been organized by an Islamic student association and are in reaction to the "rogue security elements" on the campus.

Shiites in Iraq may be the key to a free Iran.

Cameron Khosrowshahi writing for the the International Herald Tribune points out that the Shiite tradition, prior to Khomeini, believed in a separation of mosque and state. Ayatollah Sistani is of that tradition and his influence among believing Muslims is in assent. The Iranians have no means to counter his influence on their own followers who are troubled by the corruption not only of their government but also their religion. Sistani may be the key to the final death of the Khomeini revolution in Iran.

Final EU3/Iran Negotiations at an impasse - More talks coming

The EU3/Iran negotiations were supposed to conclude with this final round of talks. Iran had even threatened to restart its enrichment program if the talks didn't produce the results they were looking for. Instead we are told, "The tone of the meeting was positive," said Iran's UN Ambassador and that they are scheduling more talks soon.

Iran is pitching the idea of an elaborate monitoring system that will permit them to continue to enrich their own uranium. Europe doesn’t seem to be too impressed with the plan.

Iran has what it wants: more time and Europe gets what it wants: not to have the talks fail.

Iran Achieves Breakthrough in Shihab

Intelligence sources claim Iran has developed a new liquid fuel version of the Shihab-3 that can travel significantly farther than previous models and carry a much larger warhead. The Shihab-3A reached a range of 1,700 kilometers, by far the longest distance of the missile.

Condi: Iranians Want Real Democracy

Condoleezza Rice appears to be preparing to push hard for real democracy in Iran. Here are a few of here recent statements heard over the Voice of America.

"the Middle East is changing. And those states that don't recognize that the Middle East is changing...[that] try to halt that change – states like Syria or Iran – need now to be, by the international community, isolated and condemned":

"You have a growing chorus of people in the Middle East who are expressing what I think we always knew, which is that you don't have to impose democracy. You impose tyranny. Democracy and the desire to be free [are] as natural as breathing."

Secretary of State Rice says that in Iran the "unelected few of mullahs" are "going in the opposite direction with a population that has clearly demonstrated that it wants a democratic future." Ms. Rice says, "What the international community needs to do…is to come alongside these people…and to say to them, 'We stand with you in the changes that you're trying to make.'"

Wednesday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 3.23.2005:

Has Europe agreed to support real democracy in Iran, if the negotiations fail?

The Voice of America quoted US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley as saying the Europeans and the U.S. now agree on an agenda for Iran:

"Which is not only dealing with the nuclear issue, but also dealing with Iranian sponsorship for terror, obstruction of the Middle East peace process, and also failure to give freedom and democracy to their people."

White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley says that the United States believes that "the cause of freedom for the Iranian people has been advanced by the understandings we've reached with the Europeans."

Let's hope this is true.

Here are a few other news items you may have missed.

• The Wall Street Journal said it right: The root cause of the nuclear crisis with Iran is not a shortage of "economic incentives"; it is the nature of the regime.
• Dr. Jerome Corsi is scheduled to appear on Hannity and Colmes tonight. He just appeared on Fox's Fox and Friends program.
• Iranians love the "Little Schumacher," a newly famous 28-year-old race car driver.
• King of Jordan warned that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are the greatest threats to stability in the Middle East.
• Is the Christian Science Monitor preparing to endorse Rafsanjani for president?
• Should we be concerned that US military planners are dusting off their military plans for an attack on Iran? Lt. Col. Gordon Cucullu says no.
• Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told US Congressmen that despite months of press reports to the contrary: "Israel has no intention of attacking Iran..."
• Turkey was does not want Iran to become a nuclear power, says Gunduz Aktan.
• Arnaud de Borchgrave reminds us of the Iranian Mullahs view of America, in their own words.
• The Iranians already want to stretch out the final round of negotiations with the EU3 which were to start and end today. They want a few more days...
• President Bush said, "I believe Iran should adopt democracy; that's what I believe."
• Iranian refugees celebrate the Iranian New Year with the Prince.
• The American Enterprise Institute has published a list of important reports on Iran.
• El Baradei sells out the Iranian people.
• The Washington Times takes a look at the rulers of Iran and their options.
• The American Thinker fears that the US dealings with Iran will leave Israel in the lurch.
• And finally, an Iranian Student who escaped Iran needs our help.

When Dealing With Iran , No Love, Just Toughness

David Johnson, Co-Founder of U.S. Alliance for Democratic Iran told the Wall Street Journal:

When it comes to rogue regimes, the bitter truth is that diplomatic engagement is futile. The root cause of the nuclear crisis with Iran is not a shortage of "economic incentives"; it is the nature of the regime in power in Tehran.

Iran is ruled by an irreformable theocratic regime that has worked to ensure its survival by brutal crackdown of political dissent at home, exporting fundamentalism and sponsoring terrorism abroad as well as developing weapons of mass destruction. Thus it would be naïve to assume that the mullahs will agree to undermine their survivability by abandoning one of the regime's main pillars, possessing the A-bomb.

Engaging Iran is not futile if we make the Iranian people, not the tyrants, the focus of a new and comprehensive policy. This policy must ensure the unseating of the clerical regime by Iranians themselves as a necessary step toward eliminating what President Bush described as "conditions that feed radicalism and ideologies of murder" in the world.

Dr. Jerome Corsi will appear tonight on Hannity and Colmes

Dr. Jerome Corsi, will be discussing his new book Atomic Iran on the Fox News program: Hannity and Colmes tonight.

Mullahs the Limit

Laleh Seddigh nicknamed the "Little Schumacher," is the newly famous 28-year-old race car driver who recently became the first Iranian woman in the Islamic Republic's history to win a race. Ms. Seddigh beat 12 male competitors. The Wall Street Journal reports:

But there are obstacles. "Every time I want to practice or make a test drive, the track staff ask me for a letter of permission -- even though I am the captain of the Proton speed team," she added. "Men never have this kind of hassle." ...

Her victory isn't cutting her much of a break. She was forced to pull a poncho over her "tight" racing overalls before collecting the trophy. Pictures of her were, according to the Middle East Online, censored. And the crowd cheering her lifting the trophy was of course segregated. ...

But Ms. Seddigh's sports triumph is another small sign that things are changing at the grass roots in Iran.

Abdullah: Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are the Greatest Threats to Middle East Stability

Yesterday Jordan's King Abdullah warned that Syria and Hezbollah are encouraging Palestinian activists to carry out terror attacks against Israel, trying to divert attention from the situation in Lebanon and Syria.

King Abdullah also warned that Iran, Syria and Hezbollah are the greatest threats to stability in the Middle East.

Bank on Iran's Inept and Corrupt Pragmatist Mullahs!

The Christian Science Monitor is looking for Iranian pragmatists to come to the rescue in the Iranian nuclear crisis. So who are these corrupt pragmatists?

Although the article does not mention the former Iranian President Rafsanjani by name, many who have given up on the so-called "reformists" have started looking for "Rafsanjani the Pragmatic" to come to the rescue.

But this would be a mistake. It was Rafsanjani who said:

"If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession, the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world."

Iran's Worst Case Scenario

Should we be concerned that US military planners are dusting off their military plans for an attack on Iran? Lt. Col. Gordon Cucullu says no, and explains why.

So I was surprised to hear British Prime Minister Tony Blair say yesterday that nobody is planning military action against Iran over its nuclear program "at the moment."

Sharon: No Attack on Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told a visiting delegation from the US Congress, that despite months of press reports to the contrary:

"Israel has no intention of attacking Iran and continues to support the diplomatic efforts of the international community, in particular the United States, to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons,"

Turkey warns Iran

Gunduz Aktan said today that although Turkey was does not want another war in the Middle East, Iran must not become a nuclear power and should respond favorably to the US/EU3 offer. He also said:

"If Iran rejects a U.S. initiative of this kind it should not expect Turkey to show understanding."

Has Europe agreed to support real democracy in Iran, if the negotiations fail?

U.S. National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley said the Europeans are to get Iran to:

"give up its nuclear weapons ambitions. We've talked to the Europeans about it. It's clear if those negotiations fail, then we are agreed with the Europeans that the next step is to take the matter to the U-N Security Council."

Mr. Hadley says the Europeans and the U.S. now agree on an agenda for Iran:

"Which is not only dealing with the nuclear issue, but also dealing with Iranian sponsorship for terror, obstruction of the Middle East peace process, and also failure to give freedom and democracy to their people."

White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley says that the United States believes that "the cause of freedom for the Iranian people has been advanced by the understandings we've reached with the Europeans."

Here is the entire interview.

The Mullahs of Iran in their own words.

Arnaud de Borchgrave reminds us of the Iranian Mullahs view of America and the likelihood that Iran is headed for the UN Security council. For example, their Supreme Leader said:

"Our people say 'Death to America,' and this is like saying 'I seek God's refuge from the accursed Satan,' which is recited before any chapter of the Koran, even before 'In the name of Allah the Compassionate, the Merciful'."

Iran-EU Final Round of Talks May Run Three Days

The Iranians are already wanting to stretch out the final round of negotiations with the EU3 which start today. They said a final result was not expected before Thursday or even Friday.

Bush On Democracy For Iran

Voice of America reports that at a news conference in Washington, D.C., President George W. Bush said that the Iranian people deserve a democratic government:

"I believe the Iranian people ought to be allowed to freely discuss opinions, read a free press, have free votes, be able to choose amongst political parties. I believe Iran should adopt democracy; that's what I believe."

Iranian refugees celebrate Norooz with the Prince

For Iranians who have escaped Iran, struggling with the immigration services and living in fear of being sent back to Iran; Norooz is bitter sweet. But in one facility in the UK an Iranian Prince spent the day with his fellow Iranians.

It appears he was able to restore some dignity and hope in these proud people.


Since I know people in their position, alone, and living in fear, I can only hope that the days of their isolation will come to an end soon.

Democratic Momentum in the Middle East

AEI scholars continue to examine the prospects for democracy in the Middle East and to assess American public opinion on the merits and results of the war in Iraq.

The American Enterprise magazine, April-May 2005
Topic: "Democracy Breaks Out in the Middle East"

The Islamic Paradox, by Reuel Marc Gerecht
Monograph, AEI Press

What Hath Ju-Ju Wrought! by Reuel Marc Gerecht
Article in The Weekly Standard, March 14, 2005

Revolution, by Michael A. Ledeen
Article on National Review Online, March 1, 2005

Is It a Revolution or What?
Speakers: Laurent Murawiec, Michael Novak, Richard Perle, and Michael Rubin
Panel discussion, Wednesday, March 30, 10:30 a.m.-Noon

U.S. Strategy in Iraq and the Global War on Terror
Speakers: Andrew J. Bacevich and Peter D. Feaver
Seminar, March 16

Karlyn H. Bowman's Studies in Public Opinion Series includes two related poll compilations:
America after 9/11
Public Opinion on the War with Iraq

Excellent reading.

El Baradei Sells Out The Iranian People

The Dow Jones Newswire reports that El Baradei, speaking at a two-day international conference in Paris on the future of nuclear power for civilian uses, said:

"Iran must feel assured that no one is thinking of attacking or provoking regime change..."

"I hope we won't reach the U.N. stage and sanctions," he was quoted as saying, "because no one knows how a confrontation would end and everyone is the loser."

Bedeviled Despots

These are not happy days for rulers in Tehran and Damascus, Riyadh and Cairo. The Washington Times takes a look at their options. These regimes are running out of options.

Options for dealing with Iran running out.

US options with Iran are few and the American Thinker fears that the US will leave Israel in the lurch. While the writer's historical analysis may be open to debate the writer, Rachel Neuwirth, concludes as I do:

Only a revolution against the mullahs would derail the apocalyptic scenario we now face. It may not take long to find out.