Saturday, July 08, 2006

Week in Review

DoctorZin provides a review of this past week's [7/02/06 - 7/08/06] major news events regarding Iran. (The reports are listed in chronological order, not by importance) READ MORE

Iran's Nuclear Program & The UN Security Council.
  • Yonhapnews.co.kr reported that ten Iranian missile engineers recently visited N. Korea, apparently to join the launch preparation for the long-range Taepodong-2 missile. Apparently, Iran wanted to collect information (on the equipments) in order to determine whether to purchase them from China.
  • Dow Jones Newswires reported that top Iranian and European envoys will meet Wednesday to discuss "ambiguities" in a package of Western incentives, but the ambiguities shouldn't there since the EU's Solana and Iran's Larijani are "in contact on a daily basis."
  • The New York Times reported that Iran again rejected a deadline to respond to an international proposal to end the standoff over its nuclear program.
  • Arab News reported that Iran has taken note of the mistakes of Saddam in dealing with the West in its nuclear development, but argues this is also a mis-guided strategy.
  • Yahoo News reported that western powers have set July 12 as a deadline for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and agree to talks on its nuclear program or face the threat of U.N. Security Council sanctions.
  • ISNA reported that Iran's National Security Council Strategic deputy called the West's continue haste and pressure on Iran to answer the proposed nuclear proposal, suspicious. "Iran will not suspend its nuclear activities and believes that there is no need for negotiations... ."
  • Reuters reported that Western diplomats and analysts said the West has no choice but to wait as Tehran plays for time. The latest "deadline" for Iran is July 12.
  • Yahoo News reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Iran to accept an international package of incentives aimed at defusing the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program. He added he would like this to happen before next week's Group of Eight industrialized nation's summit in Russia.
  • Yahoo News reported that crucial talks due on Wednesday between the European Union and Iran on incentives to a end a nuclear stand-off have been postponed for a week.
  • Interactive Investor reported that Iran decided to delay today's meeting in Brussels with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana because of the possible presence in Brussels of an exiled opposition leader, Maryam Rajavi, leader of the National Council of Resistance of Iran -- a banned opposition group.
  • Yahoo News later reported that Iran postponed key talks in Brussels between its chief nuclear negotiator and the EU foreign policy chief until July 11 for fear of hit squads according to the Iranian news agency.
  • Kuwait News Agency reported that the EU's Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana and Iran's Chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani met Thursday to settle the crisis.
  • Yahoo News reported that the top Iranian and EU negotiators agreed to meet Thursday night for informal discussions but postponed until next week formal talks.
  • Reuters reported Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told reporters he would give a "preliminary" response next week.
  • Yahoo News reported that the European Union said talks with Iran late on Thursday on a package of incentives to end a nuclear standoff were constructive and laid the basis for a fuller response by Tehran at a second meeting due next week.
  • Reuters reported that Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said he had a "positive impression" of the proposal for Iran to halt nuclear enrichment.
  • BBC News reported that an EU official said that talks between the EU and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program have got off to a good start.
  • Bloomberg reported that Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said Iran won't be held to a deadline over an EU package of economic and political incentives to cease enriching uranium.
  • Geostrategy-Direct reported that since Ahmadinejad has said Tehran would submit an answer by Aug. 22, the U.S. intelligence community thinks it may have figured out why Ahmadinejad chose that date.
  • The Southern reported that President Bush expressed frustration with the slow pace of diplomacy in dealing with North Korea and Iran.
  • Yahoo News reported that Condoleezza Rice spoke with Solana after his meeting with Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani and that "no response to the P5 plus one proposal was given."
  • Khaleej Times Online argued that while the crucial talks between the European Union and Iran on Teheran’s nuclear program and incentives aimed at ending the stand-off have been postponed for a week, should Iran lose this opportunity and think that Baghdad and Pyongyang will take care of its problems, it would be making a grave mistake.
  • The Jerusalem Post reported that among the missiles that North Korea test-fired this week were short-range Scud-C missiles and intermediate range Rodong missiles North Korea has sold to Iran.
  • Bruno Schirra, writing for the German website Die Welt just published a report that the IAEA tried to stop entitled: Atomic Secrets: The man who knew too much. This is the first time the IAEA’s Chief Inspector, Chris Charlier, has spoken out publicly. We have just translated the report.
  • IranMania reported that Mohamed Elbaradei said that there was still plenty of time to find a diplomatic solution to the the Iranian nuclear crisis.
  • When will El Baradei be forced out of the IAEA? Write your representatives and demand hearings in this now.
Tehran's bloody Prosecutor a delegate to the UN's Human Rights body.
  • The Japan Times argued that Iran's decision to include Tehran's prosecutor general, Saeed Mortazavi, in that country's delegation to the new United Nations Human Rights Council sends a wrong message and demonstrates the need for a mechanism within the Human Rights Council to prevent a similar thing from happening in the future.
Iran's leaders latest statements.
  • Mehran Riazaty reported that the editor of a hard-line Iranian daily Keyhan newspaper, Hossein Shariatmadari, said a new front should be opened against Israel so that "Zionists" no longer feel safe anywhere in the world.
  • JTA reported that Ahmadinejad said Israel is a "fabricated regime... I think the only solution would be for those who created it to wrap it up and take it away."
  • Safa Haeri, Iran Press Service reported more on Ahmadinejad's statement: "Israel Must Be Removed."
Iranian Dissidents.
  • Radio Free Europe reported that dissident Iranian journalist Akbar Ganji has threatened to organize a hunger-strike "movement" in several Western cities if the government does not release three Iranian political prisoners and has called on all freedom-loving Iranians and human rights defenders to join him.
Iranian leaderships unity weakening?
  • Rooz Online reported that even though the leader of the Islamic regime recently formed the Foreign Relations Council of Iran, the actual wording used by the leader regarding the formation of this center is to ‘assist long-term decision" making, not actual decision-making or any executive functions.
  • Rooz Online argued that Iran's Supreme Leader's recent decree for reducing the size of the government and selling government stocks and shares in its commercial enterprises is evidence of his grasping for the executive functions of the government. It appears he is trying to follow the Chinese model, but there are problems with this approach.
Unrest in Iran.
  • Mehr News.ir reported that Iranian Intelligence Minister Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei saidthat the Intelligence Ministry has devised various strategies to combat internal and external measures taken against Iran’s Islamic system and is closely monitoring foreign "subversives" activities.
  • Iran Focus reported that Iran’s State Security Forces (SSF) are setting up several hundred police checkpoints across Tehran. It is believed this is in response to the regime's fear of protests inside Iran starting this coming weekend. July 9th is the anniversary of the 1999 bloody crackdown of the regime against Iranian students. Each year the students have sought to commemorate the crackdown with demonstrations. . Let's hope the Western media is poised to report on any demonstrations this weekend.
Rumors of War.
  • Symour M. Hersh, The New Yorker published his latest Iran report based on his "anonymous" sources. While he illustrates the problems with the military options in dealing with the Iranian nuclear crisis, he offers few solutions.
Human Rights and Freedom of the Press in Iran.
  • News.com.au reported that the Iranian intelligence ministry accused prominent Iranian intellectual Ramin Jahanbegloo, who is currently imprisoned, trying to "instigate a velvet and soft revolution in Iran."
  • Mehr News.ir reported that Iranian Intelligence Minister Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei saidthat the Intelligence Ministry has devised various strategies to combat internal and external measures taken against Iran’s Islamic system and is closely monitoring foreign "subversives" activities.
  • A petition Online addressed to the United Nations, European Union, and other international bodies asking for help in saving Malek Qorbani from stoning in Iran.
  • Rooz Online reported that a week after the banning of the Student Association of Amir Kabir University (a major university student organization in Iran) the student crackdown has been rising. He reported on the many protests throughout Iran.
  • Rooz Online reported that a group of students advising President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on student issues was dismissed because of its criticism of the performance of the government in the sphere of higher education. He didn't like being criticized.
  • Yahoo News reported that Shirin Ebadi finally demanded the "unconditional" release of all political prisoners, despite official denials that such a category of detainee exists.
Support for an internal regime change in Iran.
  • Adm. James Lyons, The Washington Times reminded us that over the past 25 years, the regime founded by the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has declared war on the United States several times, the only real solution is the elimination of the current Khamenei regime. How? He argued that we should help the Iranian people eliminate the current regime and take Iran back.
  • Telegraph reported that an Iranian student leader, Amir Abbas Fakhravar, who was imprisoned and tortured before fleeing to the United States in May, is to meet Vice-President Dick Cheney and deliver his message about the need for "regime change" in Teheran.
  • The Guardian reported that the "children of the Iranian revolution" are resisting the hardline direction of the regime.
  • Mercury News reported that an Iranian student leader, Amir Abbas Fakhravar, who was imprisoned for years until he recently fled his homeland arrived in Southern California in hopes of uniting Iranian opposition groups.
  • Amir Taheri, Arab News reported that recently Iranian exiles have held a series of meetings, most recently in Berlin and London, to harmonize their activities. The emerging consensus within the opposition appears to be based on at least six points. A must read.
Iran's Oil Weapon.
  • Iranian.ws reported that Iran will start the initial phase of its planned Iranian oil bourse at the end of September.
The Iranian Economy.
  • Regnum.ru reported that Tehran is proposing to accelerate construction of Iran-Ukraine oil pipeline.
  • The Washington Times reported that while Iran plans to halt gasoline imports and introduce rationing, similar attempts to lift subsidies on key commodities in other countries have sparked widespread unrest.
  • Reuters reported that cheap fuel is seen as a national right inside of Iran. Drivers are bitter about the government's assertion that rationing could be imminent. This report explains how this crisis came to be.
  • The Financial Times reported that Iran issued an executive order for the privatization of 80 per cent of several state-owned companies. But it unlikely to succeed without massive foreign investment.
  • Gulf Times reported that Iran won’t discount the price of its natural gas due to flow through a proposed pipeline to Pakistan and India because of global demand. Europe wants to purchase it instead. Hmmm.
  • Rooz Online reported on the signing of an agreement for $7 billion between Iran’s Oil Ministry and a firm belonging to the elite Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps, now the largest business and economic trust in the country. Many fear this new arrangement may again produce the same kind of criminal activities that took place in the past.
  • Iranian.ws reported that Iran may run out of gasoline by the end of August, one month earlier than expected.
  • Rooz Online reported that although Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered the "privatization" of the Iranian economy, in reality, Iran's "Private Sector" = The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC).
Signs of desperation inside of Iran.
  • Rooz Online reported how healthy Iranians are selling their Kidney's on the black market in Iran, providing further evidence of the desperate economic conditions there.
  • Rooz Online reported on the rise of suicide in Iran, the vast majority from young women. Further evidence of the desperation of Iranian young people.
  • Iran Focus reported that the U.S. State Department put Iran among the main countries engaged in human trafficking. The report described Iran as a “source, transit, and destination country for women and girls trafficked for the purposes of sexual exploitation and involuntary servitude.
Iran and Iraq.
  • World Tribune.com reported that a new Shi'ite insurgency group has emerged in Iraq and has pledged not to attack civilians. The group, called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq-Abbas Brigades, was said to be aligned with Iran and the Lebanese-based Hizbullah. Already the group has pledged to battle the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq.
  • Iran Focus reported that Iraq’s military has launched a new operation to secure the country’s porous border with Iran.
  • The New York Times reported that U.S.-led forces arrested a regional commander for a pro-government Shi'ite militia, Adnan al-Unaybi, suspected of smuggling SA-7 surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles and spying for Iran.
  • Yahoo News reported on the two-day regional conference on security in Iraq is to open in the Iranian capital Tehran.
Can you believe this?
  • Adnkronos International reported that a 'nuclear symphony' composed at the request Ahmadinejad will open in Tehran next week. Ahmadinejad has called on Iranian composers to honour with their talent "national pride."
Iran and the International community.
  • San Francisco Chronicle reported that Iran is using its Shiite bonds to position itself in Lebanon. But not all Shiite's in Lebanon are happy about it.
  • Reuters reported that U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said North Korea's test-firing of a long-range missile may have been aimed at stealing the nuclear spotlight away from Iran.
  • Time Magazine asked: Will Hizballah Go To War for Iran?
  • Mehran Riazaty pondered why some 60,888 Iranian tourists visited Lebanon in the first half of 2006.
US Government on Iran.
  • George W. Bush, WhiteHouse.gov in his weekly radio address said: "Today, all who live in tyranny and all who yearn for freedom can know that America stands with them."
Must Read reports.
  • Joel Mowbray, The Washington Times reported that in a stunning move, Karen Hughes sided with the Democratic members of the Broadcasting Board of Governors earlier this month in shooting down the Republicans' preferred candidate to head up U.S. radio services who would like to return to the principles that proved so effective during the Cold War, namely targeting key decision makers with serious programming laced with the values and ideals inherent to free societies. What's up with Karen?
  • The Wall Street Journal reminded us of the history of North Korea efforts to sell missile technology to Iran and the problem our these nations developing nuclear weapons.
  • Bruno Schirra, writing for the German website Die Welt just published a report that the IAEA tried to stop entitled: Atomic Secrets: The man who knew too much. This is the first time the IAEA’s Chief Inspector, Chris Charlier, has spoken out publicly. We have just translated the report.
  • Rooz Online reported that while Ahmadinejad claims to be battling corruption in the Iranian regime, his brother has been accused of embezzling $2 Million dollars in contracts with the IRGC. His brother is currently the head of the president’s inspector's office whose responsibility is to track and investigate government corruption and fraud.
The Experts.
  • Michael Herzog, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published a report on.
  • Amir Taheri, Gulf News reported on the future of coalition in Iraq.
  • Michael Rubin, The National Review Online reviewed the reasons for the failure of US and international efforts to find diplomatic solutions for North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them.
  • Amir Taheri, Arab News reported that recently Iranian exiles have held a series of meetings, most recently in Berlin and London, to harmonize their activities. The emerging consensus within the opposition appears to be based on at least six points. A must read.
  • Michael Rubin, Bitter Lemons International, while critical of the Bush administrations equivocation about its democratization policy, warned that the Islamic Republic's leadership would not likely survive should it push the White House into conflict over Israel or, for that matter, over Washington's allies in the Persian Gulf.
Photos, cartoons and videos.
  • Rooz Online published a cartoon of Ahmadinejad "sleeping on the job."
  • Current TV published a video cartoon: "Iran: Deal Or No Deal?" A little humor.
The Quote of the Week.
JTA reported that Ahmadinejad said Israel is a

"fabricated regime... I think the only solution would be for those who created it to wrap it up and take it away."

Sunday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 7.9.2006:

Why El Baradei must be forced out of the IAEA.
  • Bruno Schirra, writing for the German website Die Welt just published a report that the IAEA tried to stop entitled: Atomic Secrets: The man who knew too much. This is the first time the IAEA’s Chief Inspector, Chris Charlier, has spoken out publicly. We have just translated the report.
Here are a few excerpts:
When Baradei went to Tehran in April for consultations, the chief negotiator of the Shiite theocracy, Ali Larijani gave him an ultimatum to fire Chris Charlier. …

Mohammad El-Baradei acted swiftly in accepting the demand.

Chris Charlier had made himself highly unpopular in Tehran since 2003. "I am not a politician, I am a technician and as such the only thing which interests me is whether Iran's nuclear program is a civil or military one", Charlier states. "The inspections have to reach an unambiguous conclusion".

"I believe they are hiding what they are doing with their nuclear activities. …

Charlier notes the results of inspections and lists the tricks and deceptions of the Tehran rulers, which leads the inspectors in Vienna to a single conclusion: based on pieces of the puzzle gathered by Charlier, "Tehran is obviously making a bomb." …

Mohammad El-Baradei promised Ali Larijani, the most trusted person of Iran's Supreme Ruler Ali Khamenei not only to remove Charlier, the team leader of the inspectors, but also to no longer allow him access to any documents in Vienna, relative to Iran's nuclear program.
Does El Baradei work for Iran or the UN?
  • IranMania reported that Mohamed Elbaradei said that there was still plenty of time to find a diplomatic solution to the the Iranian nuclear crisis.
  • When will El Baradei be forced out of the IAEA? Write your representatives and demand hearings in this now.
El Baradei is not the only one corrupted by the Iranian regime.
  • Rooz Online reported that while Ahmadinejad claims to be battling corruption in the Iranian regime, his brother has been accused of embezzling $2 Million dollars in contracts with the IRGC. His brother is currently the head of the president’s inspector's office whose responsibility is to track and investigate government corruption and fraud.
  • Rooz Online reported that although Iran's Supreme Leader has ordered the "privatization" of the Iranian economy, in reality, Iran's "Private Sector" = The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC).
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.
  • Michael Rubin, Bitter Lemons International, while critical of the Bush administrations equivocation about its democratization policy, warned that the Islamic Republic's leadership would not likely survive should it push the White House into conflict over Israel or, for that matter, over Washington's allies in the Persian Gulf.
  • Yahoo News reported on the two-day regional conference on security in Iraq is to open in the Iranian capital Tehran.
  • Yahoo News reported that Shirin Ebadi finally demanded the "unconditional" release of all political prisoners, despite official denials that such a category of detainee exists.
  • Safa Haeri, Iran Press Service reported more on Ahmadinejad's statement: "Israel Must Be Removed."

IAEA: Ample time for diplomatic solution on Iran

IranMania:
The head of the UN's nuclear watchdog Mohamed Elbaradei said that there was still plenty of time to find a diplomatic solution to the the Iranian nuclear crisis and ruled out any military options, AFP reported.

"There is no durable solution to the Iranian issue except through negotiation. There is no military solution, I have to repeat that," Mohamed Elbaradei, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told a conference on nuclear power in Ankara.

"You might apply pressure, you might apply sanctions, you might escalate, but at the end of the day people need to sit around the negotiating table... and try to find a solution which is regarded by everybody as fair and equitable," he added.

Recalling that Iran would need five to 10 years to build a nuclear weapon should it choose to do so, El Baradei said: "So we have ample room for negotiation." READ MORE

He underlined that a negotiated solution which paved the way for normalised ties between Iran and the West would have a "tremendous positive impact" on the volatile Middle East.

The UN Security Council is currently awaiting Iran's answer to an offer of economic and political incentives in exchange for a suspension of uranium enrichment which the West suspects is part of a programme to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran could face sanctions if it rejects the proposal.

A senior Iranian official said Thursday no response would be forthcoming at least in the next week, while Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said a formal response will be given in August.

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana held an initial meeting with the Islamic Republic's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in Brussels on Thursday to see whether Tehran might be prepared to discuss the offer put forward last month by the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany.

"I hope the Iranians will respond positively to the offer," ElBaradei said. "The solution is to create the conditions to go back to the negoationg table."

The proposal affirms Iran's right to develop nuclear energy, supports its building of light-water reactors, provides for uranium enrichment to take place in Russia and offers a series of economic incentives.

In return, Iran is asked to suspend all enrichment-related activities and accept wider IAEA inspections.

"They (Iranians) need to understand they should go out of their way to be transparent, work with the agency, work with the international community... to demonstrate that their programme is exclusively for peaceful purposes," the IAEA chief said.
The first step in finding a solution is to replace El Baradei.

Atomic secrets: The man, who knew too much

Bruno Schirra, Die Welt: The IAEA tried to prevent the publication of this article. Hattip to Henrietta
When Chris Charlier arrived in Iran in April of this year, he was received the same way as had always been the case in each of over 20 visits to the Islamic Republic of Iran.

"Wherever we went, whatever we did, they always followed us, monitoring us with video cameras and capturing every single one of our conversations. Never letting us out of their sight for a second, watching everything over our shoulder."

"How the devil were we supposed to rationally do our work" comments the 64-year old Belgian.

Chris Charlier, who heads a team of 15 Atomic Energy inspectors of the IAEA have been inspecting the Islamic Republic's nuclear program since 2003.

For the first time a Viennese based inspector speaks openly and under his own name about the conditions under which UN inspectors try to bring to light the darkness surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.

The reason for his outspoken comments is because since April of this year he is for all practical purposes unemployed. Responsible for this is his Vienna based direct superior, Mohammad El-Baradei.

When Baradei went to Tehran in April for consultations, the chief negotiator of the Shiite theocracy, Ali Larijani gave him an ultimatum to fire Chris Charlier.

Iran's hasty demand.

Mohammad El-Baradei acted swiftly in accepting the demand.

Chris Charlier had made himself highly unpopular in Tehran since 2003. "I am not a politician, I am a technician and as such the only thing which interests me is whether Iran's nuclear program is a civil or military one", Charlier states. "The inspections have to reach an unambiguous conclusion".

"I believe they are hiding what they are doing with their nuclear activities. It is probable they are doing things of which we have no knowledge," Charlier responds to a question as to whether Tehran operates a secret parallel nuclear program.

Inside countless memos and work reports, Charlier notes the results of inspections and lists the tricks and deceptions of the Tehran rulers, which leads the inspectors in Vienna to a single conclusion: based on pieces of the puzzle gathered by Charlier, "Tehran is obviously making a bomb."

"For that he is now paying the price" says one of his colleagues. "El-Baradei has sacrificed Charlier and set him to counting paper clips in Vienna till he eventually retires".

The real reason is that in discussions with Mohammad El-Baradei, Charlier has always refused to close the Iran nuclear file and to absolve Tehran of effectively operating a military atomic program. READ MORE

No Access to Iranian Atomic Documents.

In conversation, Charlier confirmed what European diplomats would only mention in secretive whispers.

On his last visit to Tehran, Mohammad El-Baradei promised Ali Larijani, the most trusted person of Iran's Supreme Ruler Ali Khamenei not only to remove Charlier, the team leader of the inspectors, but also to no longer allow him access to any documents in Vienna, relative to Iran's nuclear program.

"As of April, I may no longer travel to Iran. As of April, I no longer have access to the Iranian Nuclear file," says Chris Charlier.

Mohammad El-Baradei's capitulation to Iran has made huge waves at the IAEA in Vienna. The other inspectors are up in arms. "This totally bankrupts our work" says a Viennese inspector. "Mohammad El-Baradei folds vis-a-vis the Mullahs and leaves us standing in the rain. Why don't we just let Iran be in charge of inspecting their own nuclear program?"

Mohammad El-Baradei is unavailable to respond about his attitude in Charlier matter. A spokesman for El-Baradei confirms that Chris Charlier is no longer authorized to travel to Iran. Tehran has demanded his removal.

IAEA Tries to Prevent Publication

In a long telephone conversation, shortly after the facts were confirmed by the IAEA, they tried to prevent publication.

Publication would jeopardize Chris Charlier and additionally put at risk the work basis of our inspectors.

"What work basis?" Chris Charlier, who sees it differently , asks. "Just conceding, without any need, to the extortion of Tehran, by itself puts an end to a working basis. This has "de facto" ended even a half-way rational inspection of the Iranian nuclear program by the IAEA."

How necessary these inspections were was confirmed by statements coming from Tehran a long time ago.

On August 1st, 2005, the brother of Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Larijani, spoke openly of the true nature of the Iranian nuclear program. Iran's news agency ILNA quoted him as saying "the nuclear non-proliferation treaty is dead. Iran's dispute with the West does not hinge on that but on whether we cease enriching uranium. It has nothing to do with whether we have the right to make bomb. We are not fighting with Europe about enrichment. If our bloodthirsty enemies like America and Israel threaten us, we have the right to defend ourselves with nuclear weapons and we are not going to give up this right".

Consequence: Western Position Weakened

Clear words out of Tehran that emphasize what putting the prominent IAEA inspector out in the cold implies. In coming negotiations by Western partners, the dismissal of Chris Charlier has weakened their hand.

The results obtained by his inspection trips and of his colleagues have been the trump card in the the nuclear poker game with the Islamic Republic. A trump card that the IAEA boss, Mohammad El-Baradei has dropped from his hand.

Translated by Alan Peters.
This is a must read article that we have just translated. It needs wide distribution in the English speaking world, immediately. Spread the word.

Update: The Washington Post has now published an AP version of the story but it leaves out many important details. Compare the reports.

Thank you InstaPundit, Littlegreenfootballs, Roger L Simon, Pajamas Media and the many other faithful bloggers out there that have been spreading the word. Now we need a campaign to have El Baradei removed from the IAEA.
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Billion Dollar Fraud of the President’s Brother

Meysam Tavab, Rooz Online:
The inspector of Tehran municipality recently submitted a report to the city council and the mayor of the capital, in which it expressly states that the elder brother of Mohammad Ahmadinejad who was the contractor for the development of Tehran’s Noor Circle had embezzled about 2 billion Toman (a Dollar is traded for approximately 1000 Tomans in the Iranian black market). Dawood Ahmadinejad is currently the head of the president’s inspectors office whose responsibility is to track and investigate government corruption and fraud.

According to a Rooz reporter, the contract for the development of the Noor Circle project during Ahmadinejad’s mayorship was awarded to the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps, as were many other municipality projects. At the same time, the sub-contractor for all the municipality urban projects that the Passdaran had was the current president’s elder brother. READ MORE

This fraud is made public at a time when there have also been reports about the embezzlement of some 350 billion Toman at the municipality during the days of Ahmadinejad. The amount remains unaccounted for. Nader Shariatmadari, a member of Tehran city council said in this regard that the implementation of the new accounting system in the municipality revealed the discrepancy and that this money had been spent without any documentation and trace. Existing documents do not show who authorized this money to be spent on what. About the timing of the expenditures of the money, he added that while one may say that about 50 billion Toman of this untraceable amount may belong to post-Ahmadinejad days. But what is certain is that 300 billion Toman are untraceable during the days that Ahmadinejad served as the mayor of the capital.

It should be noted that among the presidential candidates of 2005, Ahmadinejad was the only candidate who did not resign from his position as mayor of Tehran and continued to sign decrees while running for president. In those days, his brother was known to be a contractor for large municipality projects.

Iran's "Private Sector" = The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp

Mehrdad Sheibani, Rooz Online:
The first month of summer is half way through. A summer in which Iran’s constitutional movement celebrates is centenary. This revolution was the first democratic movement in the Middle East so that even today the reformist leaders inside Iran’s current regime are meeting on its pretext. Everything revolves around the key source: battling despotism, and freedom which in the words of Hamid Reza Jalaipour, the prominent sociologist, have now come to their “pre-democratic” phase but continues to face the symbols of power.

Power in Iran has always come about through both the union of and confrontation between the king and the cleric, and through the mixture of Sharia (Islamic law) and politics, which has produced a unique Oriental Despotism in Iran that recently-released journalist Akbar Ganji calls the “Monarchial regime” and others in the West call it totalitarianism.

In this unique system, kings who viewed themselves as promoters of the Sharia included cleric leaders in the power structure in such a manner that it is almost impossible to distinguish the religious from the political.

And while Europe was clearly separating church from government, in Iran, this system was being theorized by cleric Molla Ali Naraghi who advanced the notion of the “velayate-e faghih” (the rule of the cleric) which meant the consolidating politics and religion in the hands of the clerics, thus ending forever the two unity - confrontation sources of power.

So the Constitutional Movement in Iran, which was a product of the Age of Enlightenment, and had chosen the opposing path and had incited those supporting the idea of ruling clerics, was aborted and ended up in a king despot.

Under the unique conditions of the late 70s, the Islamic revolution plucked the fruit of that despotism and solidified the religious leadership in the cloaks of republicanism. This is the only republic that is led by a velayate-e faghih, i.e. a cleric. Now after three decades, the complete establishment of the “monarchial system” is on its way. Power is completely centralized and the religious leader of the time holds absolute power, even though the form of the system remains a republic.

The power structure in Iran, which has been given different names, has used the experience of taking over provincial councils through constitutional means to demonstrate that under the current circumstances it can solve the issue of the form by determining its contents. After the conquest of the councils, the government and the Majlis, it is now the turn of other remaining institutions of power. This week, Tehran’s military prosecutor tried through an interview to deflect fears from the domination of the Experts Assembly on Leadership by the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps. But this is precisely what is expected to happen. A bill before the Majlis (Iran’s Parliament) provides for changing the elections process. Mohsen Armin, the spokesperson for the Sazeman Mojahedin Engelab Eslami spoke of the imminent dangers last week and without expressly naming ayatollah Khamenei spoke of a directive that turned overnight the opposition of some political institutions in the country to the bill, into its supporters.

News from the Anjomane Senfi Matbuat (the Professional Organization of the Press), the only half independent civil organization of Iranian journalists indicated that the measures to conquer this organization which continues to be in the hands of reformers are almost complete.

The conquest of social institutions continued during last week and now entered the economic ones as well. The “decree of the leader” which provided for relegating a significant part of the country’s economy into the private sector has no other meaning than giving this domain to the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iranian economists have repeatedly shown in their writings that the private sector” in Iran is nothing but a pseudo-name for the key agency that exercises power and wealth, i.e. the Passdaran Revolutionary Guards Corps. And since Ahmadinejad’s hardliners conquered the presidency last year, the Passdaran has revealed its underground activities to take over and dominate economic life of the nation: an economy that is going through the most critical crises.

The right-wing press in Iran has tried to present ayatollah Khamenei’s privatization decree as a solution to the serious problems of the economy, which president Ahmadinejad had promised to resolve. Independent analysts believe that this privatization which amounts to nothing other than surrendering the domestic economy to the Passdaran, is also a green light to the United States which as the leader of the new world order calls for privatization and economic liberalism. READ MORE

So events inside Iran again tie closely to what is going on outside the country. Mostafa Tajzadeh who is one of the leaders of the reformists in Iran believes that a confrontation with the US is unavoidable and notes that this is the focal point of all policies of the hardliners.

The battles of this conflict continued last week as well, and mostly underground and they were highlighted by the visit of Turkish foreign minister to Iran. Carrying a “special message” for Iran, he also took a message for the US. This was implicitly acknowledged by no other than Ali Larijani in his joint press conference.

This week, like the previous one, the policy of killing time also continued on both sides regarding the nuclear standoff and the G8 leaders finally agreed on July 12 as the deadline for a response from Iran regarding the package of incentives that the West has offered Iran in an effort to entice it to forego its uranium enrichment activities. On Wednesday, Ali Larijani was supposed to go to Brussels to give EU’s foreign minister Javier Solana his reply to the incentives package, thus fulfilling the call by Washington which acknowledged him as the responsible party in Iran for the nuclear talks, negating ayatollah Khamenei’s remarks. It is still not clear what message Abdullah Gol, Turkey’s foreign minister to the US from Larijani to put him at the center of events again. But whatever it was, he was connected to Washington through Solanas. Will this connection be the link that will take the Islamic Republic to its final destination? Will Iran’s Monarchial system complete the Turkey – Iran – Pakistan crescent in republics where Islam plays the decisive role while the military says the final word? Each of these republics is a form of Eastern despotism.

But the completion of this crescent does not just mean that the Islamic republic has circumvented its foreign enemy, i.e. the US. It also indicates its victory over a historic rival, i.e. the monarchy. Iranian leaders view the return of the monarchy is the manifestation of being defeated by the US which in the words of the leader of the regime is trying to instill a “soft revolution”, something that the minister of intelligence calls “the velvet revolution.” This is something that interrogators of Mohsen Ejheyi, the intelligence minister continue to search for in their detention of Ramin Jahanbegloo.

Perhaps it is not clear what research and investigations are continuing from the Iranian researcher Jahanbegloo at this time. But the history of the last three decades shows that every political and even cultural personality in Iran who has been under “investigation - which is nothing but a pseudo name for torture eventually appears “voluntarily” on national television to reveal his “findings.”

Some of the victims of these “investigations” who have survived gathered in Tehran last week and reminisced. Taghi Rahmani from the national-religious grouping, who spent six years in prison said, “I was lucky to have had my skin peeled off, but not beheaded.” And Mohammad Ali Amooyi one of the leftist leaders in Iran who spent 12 years in prison, and even participated in a televised interview, announced that the “researchers” of today were the very same individuals who turned the Iran of the 1980s (when dissidents were killed by government agents) into the great years of terror.

Mehrdad Sheibani is a veteran Iranian journalist living in exile.

More on Ahmadinejad's statement: "Israel Must Be Removed"

Safa Haeri, Iran Press Service:
In one of his yet strongest strident, Iran’s fundamentalist President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad again repeated that Israel must be “removed” from the region and called on all Arab and Muslim nations to help “isolating” the artificial product of Islam’s enemies”.

All the conditions for the removal of the Zionist regime are at hand, a usurper that our enemies made it and imposed it on the Muslim world, a regime that prevented the progress of the region’s nations, a regime that all Muslims must join hands in isolating it worldwide”, Mr. Ahmadi Nezhad told the gathering of Iraq’s neighbours, employing for the first time the Arabic word (ezaleh) which means removing body hairs as well as women’s virginity.

Foreign ministers from Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey plus the Persian Gulf Island nation of Bahrain and Egypt are meeting on the invitation of Iran to discuss Iraq’s alarming security problems, as a secret report from the American Defence says in the last month of June, there has been over 1.300 terrorist operations and explosions throughout the country.

General Secretaries of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Conference and a special representative of the United Nations General Secretary are also present.


Using the podium to unleash his fury over Israel in particular and its Western “producers” in general, with the United States at their helm, Mr. Ahmadi Nezhad also warned all nations that support “this artificial regime before it is too late, as, in his messianic view, it won’t take longtime before the wrath of the people in the region and the world turn into a terrible explosion that would wipe the Zionist entity off the map”.

They should realize that their support for the illegitimate, usurper Zionist regime is a mistake. I tell them to dissociate themselves or face the terrible consequences”, he added, referring indirectly to Turkey, Egypt and Jordan, three a Muslim and two Arab nations that have official diplomatic relations with Israel. READ MORE

While Ankara and Amman’s relations with Tehran are lukewarm, Cairo has no ties with Iran.

Notwithstanding, all the participants have strongly condemned Israel’s military operations “Spring Rain” against the Palestinians.

To get the release of one of its soldiers captured by the Palestinians, Israel has unleashed its forces against Gaza, killing hundreds of Palestinians, arresting tens of people, including eight ministers of the Hamas-led Palestinian government, destroying houses, official buildings, and factories.

The foreign ministers of Arab nations attending the conference also condemned Israel for its "increasing aggression against the Palestinian people" and attacked the "silence" of the international community.

"The Arab foreign ministers participating in today's Tehran meeting expressed their strong condemnation of this continuing and increasing aggression against the Palestinian people," Arab League Secretary General Amr Mussa said in a statement on behalf of officials from Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria.

On Friday, Iran organized mass rallies in support of the Palestinians, condemning Israel’s “crimes”.

According to the former Revolutionary Guards officer who fought against Iraq immediately after the former Iraq dictator attacked Iran in 1980, it is “a vital necessity” for all neighbours, Arabs and Muslims to help and support the present Iraqi government overcoming the immense problems it faces, as “Iraq’s problems are rooted in the presence of enemies that are trying to divide the Iraqi people and pit them against each other”.

However, all the participants welcomed the Iraqi Premier’s plan for national reconciliation and pledged support. “This is a good decision and will no doubt help bring stability to the country”, stated Prince Saud Al Faysal, Saudi Arabia’s Minister.

Calling on all “friends and neighbours” to help Iraqi Government’s efforts to fight terrorism and back the national reconciliation, Mr. Hoshyar Zibari, the Iraqi Foreign Affairs Minister, who, like the country’s president is a Kurd, hoped that all foreign troops would leave Iraq “as soon as the army, police and security system are reconstructed and operative”.

Contrary to Iranian delegates, other speakers refrained from attacking American-British military presence, hoping instead for the “quick restoration” of peace and security in the terrorist-riddled nation engulfed in religious infighting.

“The proposal for a national reconciliation calls on all political parties, major ethnic and all the country’s religious forces to come together, join hands fighting terrorists and restoring peace and security”, Mr. Zibari said, stressing the importance of “tightly controlled borders and preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity”.

“Iraq’s situation is very delicate and sensitive. As neighbours, we all have a historic responsibility and duty to help the country to overcome its problems peacefully”, the Saudi Minister stressed.

"It is necessary to stop the crossing of terrorist groups into Iraq who aim at creating insecurity, hatred and differences, and pave the way for the presence of foreign forces in Iraq," Ahmadinejad told the foreign ministers in Tehran.

He did not say from where or how the groups were entering Iraq.

Washington accuses Tehran of backing anti-U.S. insurgents in Iraq, a charge Tehran denies saying the U.S. occupation is to blame for the instability.

"Stability, security and progress of Iraq strengthens stability, security and progress in the whole Islamic world," Ahmadinejad said. "We are all committed to try to restore stability, security and progress in Iraq," he told the gathering.

Syria, which sent its foreign minister to Tehran, has also been accused by Washington of not doing enough to stop militants crossing into Iraq. Damascus insists it is doing its best.

The last meeting of Iraq’s neighbours was held in Istanbul, Turkey, a year ago.

Iran's Ebadi Calls for Release of Political Prisoners

Yahoo News:
The Iranian human rights group headed by Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi demanded the "unconditional" release of all political prisoners, despite official denials that such a category of detainee exists.

"The Defenders of Human Rights Center, like before, demands the unconditional release of all political prisoners including students, political and human rights activists, writers, reporters, laborers," the group said in a statement.

The group also called for the release of people detained in recent ethnic unrest in Iran's ethnic Azeri, Kurdish, Arab and Baluch areas. The statement was issued to mark the anniversary of student unrest in Tehran in 1999.

But Iran's judiciary denies anyone is being held on political charges. Dissidents and opposition figures are usually convicted of disturbing public opinion, engaging in anti-regime activities or espionage.
Better late than never, Shirin.

Iraq Security Conference to Open in Tehran

Farhad Pouladi, Yahoo News:
A two-day regional conference on security in Iraq is to open in the Iranian capital Tehran, with the Islamic republic likely to use the gathering to again call for a withdrawal of foreign troops from its neighbour. READ MORE

Officials here said that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will give a speech at the opening session of the event Saturday, which gathers officials from Iraq and its neighbours -- Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Kuwait and Turkey -- plus Egypt, Bahrain, the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC).

Iranian media confirmed the presence in Tehran of the foreign ministers of Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, as well as Arab League secretary general Amr Mussa and OIC chief Ekmeledin Ihsanoglu.

The UN's special representative to Iraq, Ashraf Qazi, is also in Iran.

"The cooperation of these countries on Iraq and security issues will be on the agenda," Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said in June when announcing plans for Saturday and Sunday's event.

"A clear message will be sent from this meeting, in that these countries support the implementation of security in Iraq," he said.

The last such session took place in April 2005 in Istanbul with little noticeable effect, and a previous meeting in Tehran in November 2004 also failed to yield concrete results.

Majority Shiite Iran has seen a reversal of its relations with Baghdad since the US invasion, enjoying close links with a government dominated by Shiite and Kurdish figures who in the past had sought refuge in Iran.

But the two sides, as well as Iraq's neighbours as a whole, remain at odds over how to tackle the worsening violence.

Iraqi Shiite leader Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, the head of parliament's largest bloc and leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), has been urging Iran to have direct security talks with the US.

"It is to the benefit of the Iraqi people that Iran and the United States talk about Iraq because the US is present in the region," he said in Tehran last month.

But Iran has ruled out such talks, with the country's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei repeating to Hakim his view that American and other foreign troops should leave Iraq.

"Iraq's current security problems will only be resolved if the occupiers leave and the security issues are handed over to the Iraqi people and government," Khamenei said.

Iran -- along with Syria -- has also been repeatedly accused of supporting insurgents.

At the last meeting in Tehran, the Iraqi delegation complained of lax border controls. Iran responded by demanding tougher action against the People's Mujahedeen, a banned armed opposition group based in Iraq.

Last month the top US commander in Iraq, General George Casey, said Iran was a major force behind unrest in Iraq, adding that Tehran trains and arms violent Shiite groups and uses "surrogates" to carry out terrorist strikes.

Iran has consistently rejected the allegations, and the conference is a public way of highlighting its stated position that it wants the violence to end.

"Contrary to the United States, Iran wants to have a united, strong and integrated Iraq as its neighbour, which would be helpful in consolidating security and stability in the region," foreign ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said.

Bush's Promise to Defend Israel Against Iran

Michael Rubin, Bitter Lemons International:
Asked on February 1, 2006 whether the United States would protect Israel militarily against Iran, President George W. Bush left no doubt: "You bet, we'll defend Israel."

To some realists, his statement was evidence that Israel had become a strategic liability to the United States. A few prominent Jewish leaders, worried that Jews might be blamed for any military conflict with Iran, urged Bush to tone down his statements pledging support for Israel. "We are basically telling the president: We appreciate it, we welcome it. But, hey, because there is this debate on Iraq, where people are trying to put the blame on us, maybe you shouldn't say it that often or that loud," Abraham Foxman, national director of the Anti-Defamation League, explained.

In reality, though, Bush's pledge of support to Israel is neither new nor special. While critics of US foreign policy and the Bush administration suggest that US wars are fought for either Israel or oil, history suggests otherwise. In the last 15 years, the US military has intervened not only in Iraq and Afghanistan--both part of the war on terrorism--but also in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo, in each case for humanitarian purposes.

That the US would act to defend its allies should not surprise. While US professors proffer informed comment that Iranian leaders do not mean what they say, policymakers have learned to take the opinion of academic experts with a grain of salt. One week before Iraq invaded Kuwait, The Times (London) reported, "The consensus among Middle East experts...was that Iraq would not invade Kuwait."

After Saddam Hussein demonstrated that sometimes dictators mean what they say, President George H.W. Bush did not go wobbly. Before a joint session of Congress on September 11, 1990, Bush declared, "Our objectives in the Persian Gulf are clear, our goals defined and familiar: Iraq must withdraw from Kuwait completely, immediately, and without condition. Kuwait's legitimate government must be restored." Professors John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt may receive plaudits in certain crowds for arguing that Israel is a strategic liability to the United States, but the fact remains that the US went to war in 1991 not to protect Israel, but to protect Saudi Arabia and liberate Kuwait. That it did so was correct.

US defense of allies from aggression is not limited to the Middle East. In both Korea and Vietnam, invasions by communist states of US allies sparked full-scale war. President Harry S Truman recorded the lowest popularity ever among US presidents in part because of high casualties and domestic criticism of his engagement in an "open-ended" conflict. He understood--as have subsequent presidents--that US credibility among its allies is more important than any snapshot poll. Today, the US maintains 35,000 troops in South Korea, and Truman ranks among the top five presidents in polls by American historians.

As costly as a war with China would be, US administrations have made clear that Washington would consider military action to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression. In 1979, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act that declared it necessary to provide arms to Taiwan and "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan." Early in his first term, against the backdrop of a crisis with Beijing, George W. Bush declared that if the Peoples' Republic of China attacked Taiwan, the US would do "whatever it took to help Taiwan defend itself".

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad may believe their anti-Israel rhetoric resonates with both their domestic audience and the Arab street. They may believe that Washington is too weak to respond. Addressing the United States on the seventeenth anniversary of the death of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Khamenei asked, "Why do you [the US] not admit that you are weak and your razor is blunt?"


But, despite Bush administration equivocation about its democratization policy, the strain of US involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and the failure of the White House to stand by its previously declared red lines, Tehran would be mistaken to believe that the US government neither had the will nor the capacity to stand by Israel or any other ally. If forced to act, Washington would and could. The US Air Force and Navy remain unencumbered. While no serious policymaker discusses occupation of Iran, the Islamic Republic's leadership would not likely survive should it push the White House into conflict over Israel or, for that matter, over Washington's allies in the Persian Gulf. READ MORE

On certain issues, US policy is remarkably consistent and bipartisan. No matter how poisonous political battles are in Washington, Congress unites in the face of aggression against the United States or its allies. Bush's pledge to protect Israel is neither unique nor counter to US interests. For Tehran or any other state to believe otherwise or engage in policies that would challenge the White House on its fundamental duties to its allies would represent a serious miscalculation.

Michael Rubin, editor of the Middle East Quarterly, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC.

Friday, July 07, 2006

Saturday's Daily Briefing on Iran

DoctorZin reports, 7.8.2006:

Ahmadinejad warns Jews in Israel to leave Israel.
  • JTA reported that Ahmadinejad said Israel is a "fabricated regime... I think the only solution would be for those who created it to wrap it up and take it away."
Iranian exiles are finally uniting on Iran.
  • Amir Taheri, Arab News reported that recently Iranian exiles have held a series of meetings, most recently in Berlin and London, to harmonize their activities. The emerging consensus within the opposition appears to be based on at least six points. A must read.
The EU/Iran "encouraged" before more talks next week.
  • Yahoo News reported that the European Union said talks with Iran late on Thursday on a package of incentives to end a nuclear standoff were constructive and laid the basis for a fuller response by Tehran at a second meeting due next week.
  • Reuters reported that Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said he had a "positive impression" of the proposal for Iran to halt nuclear enrichment.
  • BBC News reported that an EU official said that talks between the EU and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program have got off to a good start.
But Iran says it will not be held to a deadline.
  • Bloomberg reported that Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said Iran won't be held to a deadline over an EU package of economic and political incentives to cease enriching uranium.
Why does Iran want to wait until August 22nd to give the world an answer?
  • Geostrategy-Direct reported that since Ahmadinejad has said Tehran would submit an answer by Aug. 22, the U.S. intelligence community thinks it may have figured out why Ahmadinejad chose that date.
But Bush is growing impatient.
  • The Southern reported that President Bush expressed frustration with the slow pace of diplomacy in dealing with North Korea and Iran.
And Condi sees no Iranian "response" to the P5 plus 1 proposal.
  • Yahoo News reported that Condoleezza Rice spoke with Solana after his meeting with Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani and that "no response to the P5 plus one proposal was given."
Arabs argues Iran may be making a grave mistake.
  • Khaleej Times Online argued that while the crucial talks between the European Union and Iran on Teheran’s nuclear program and incentives aimed at ending the stand-off have been postponed for a week, should Iran lose this opportunity and think that Baghdad and Pyongyang will take care of its problems, it would be making a grave mistake.
US forces capture Iranian commander smuggling sophisticated missiles into Iraq.
  • The New York Times reported that U.S.-led forces arrested a regional commander for a pro-government Shi'ite militia, Adnan al-Unaybi, suspected of smuggling SA-7 surface-to-air anti-aircraft missiles and spying for Iran.
Iran to run out of gas next month?
  • Iranian.ws reported that Iran may run out of gasoline by the end of August, one month earlier than expected.
Here are a few other news items you may have missed.
  • The Japan Times argued that Iran's decision to include Tehran's prosecutor general, Saeed Mortazavi, in that country's delegation to the new United Nations Human Rights Council sends a wrong message and demonstrates the need for a mechanism within the Human Rights Council to prevent a similar thing from happening in the future.
  • Mehran Riazaty pondered why some 60,888 Iranian tourists visited Lebanon in the first half of 2006.
  • The Jerusalem Post reported that among the missiles that North Korea test-fired this week were short-range Scud-C missiles and intermediate range Rodong missiles North Korea has sold to Iran.

Iran: Tentative Moves toward a Broad Anti-Regime Platform

Amir Taheri, Arab News:
Since the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last summer, efforts have been made to bring together opponents of the Islamic republic with a plan for action on specific issues. It now seems that those efforts have met with some success, enabling the opposition to coordinate tactics against the Ahamdinejad administration.

"Everyone has the feeling that things are coming to a head (in Iran)," says a former Cabinet minister under President Muhammad Khatami. "People seem ready to forget (past) disputes and work together to save the nation from the most dangerous crisis in its recent history."

Efforts to harmonize oppositional action come after years of fruitless negotiations to form a united front capable of offering a credible alternative to the regime.

The reasons for the past failure might have been evident from the start.

A good part of the opposition consists of individuals and groups that, having participated in the Khomeinist revolution of 1978-79, have broken with it over the years. While not admitting that Iran is on the wrong trajectory, these former Khomeinists are not prepared to condemn the revolution as the source of the nation's misfortunes, including an eight-year war with Iraq and more than 150,000 executions, over the past 27 years.

Another major bloc within the opposition consists of those who speak in the name of Iranian nationalism and/or pluralistic democracy and see the revolution itself as the evil child of religious despotism.

Then, there are those that have waged armed struggle against the Islamic republic in the name of ethnic rights, religious differences and ideological causes.

Another reason for the cleavage is the fact that a good part of the opposition, ranging from monarchists to Communists and passing by conservative republicans, has had its leadership in exile for years.


The exiles have held a series of meetings, most recently in Berlin and London, to harmonize their activities, without, however, agreeing on a common platform.

The arrival into exile in recent months of several former prominent figures of the Islamic regime, including four Cabinet ministers, a former mayor of Tehran and some former commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has helped facilitate contact between internal and external dissidents.

However, the real impetus for greater harmony among opposition groups has come from a new form of opposition based on economic and/or social grievances. Within these new groups, university students, and industrial workers may have the greatest potential for challenging the regime in a meaningful way.

The emerging consensus within the opposition appears to be based on at least six points. READ MORE

The first is that past differences should be set aside in favor of joint action. Some anti-regime groups are even prepared to envisage a broad front that would include former figures of the regime who have decided to distance themselves form the radical Ahmadinejad administration. The idea is that, provided they are allocated a certain space, many former regime insiders will be ready to switch sides as the crisis intensifies.

The second is that anti-regime action should be organized around specific issues related to the interests of broad segments of society. In that spirit, opposition groups from different backgrounds have worked together in support of a series of industrial strikes that have hit various cities, including Tehran, in recent weeks.

The third point is that any attempt at a speedy politicization of economic, social, ethnic and cultural demands could be counterproductive. This is why most opposition groups, including those in exile, have refrained from claiming credit for recent workers' strikes and student demonstrations. The emerging analysis within the opposition is that the regime is more vulnerable when forced to offer economic, social and cultural concessions that could undermine its totalitarian hold on society.

The fourth point is that most opposition groups have agreed to set their maximum demands with regard to the future form of government on hold. The monarchists are no longer insisting on a straight return to the pre-revolution system while the disillusioned Khomeinists have toned down their opposition to a constitutional referendum that might allow a return to monarchy in some form. Even the People's Combatants Organization (Mujahedin Khalq) now agrees that the future form of government should be decided by the people.

The fifth point is that the issue of Iran's nuclear ambitions must not be allowed to divert domestic and international attention from growing unrest inside the country.

Opposition leaders believe that Ahamdinejad is deliberately seeking a limited military clash with the United States on the nuclear issue to defuse internal tension and rally the people behind his increasingly beleaguered administration. While no one in the opposition is publicly asking the United States to withdraw the threat of military action, everyone agrees that any limited operation that would wound the regime but leave it alive and in place could give the Khomeinist system a second life.

Finally, there is agreement that the initial phase of action against the Ahmadinejad administration must be led by independent personalities with no partisan affiliations. Student activists, leaders of unofficial trade unions, women's rights advocates, well-known academics, managers of nongovernmental organizations, and even independent theologians, are expected to feature prominently in the initial stages of what opposition leaders believe is a decisive showdown with the regime.

The new consensus is already facing its first test over the campaign launched in favor of political prisoners.

Akbar Ganji, a former Revolutionary Guard interrogator-turned- dissident, gave the signal for the campaign last week during his current tour of Western capitals. Ganji, recently released from political prison after a solo hunger strike in Tehran, has called for a massive hunger strike, inside and outside Iran, in sympathy with political prisoners in the Islamic republic.

A number of prominent figures inside Iran have already echoed Ganji's call. These include Dr. Muhammad Maleki, a former chancellor of Tehran University under the Khomeinist regime, Mrs. Simin Behbahani, possibly the most popular Persian poet alive, and prominent Iranian-Kurdish writer Jalal Qavami. Mrs. Shirin Ebadi, the Iranian winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, is also expected to join, although she has been reluctant to challenge the regime openly. A number of prominent theologians in Qom and Mash'had, including Ayatollah Hassan San'ei, have also been contacted, to endorse the campaign.

No one knows quite how many political prisoners there are in the Islamic republic. (Estimates by human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, vary between 3,000 and 85,000. According to Iranian human rights groups, more than 2.5 million Iranians have been in and out of prison on various charges since 1979.)

"It is a measure of our national tragedy that almost anybody who is somebody has spent some time as political prisoner in the past quarter of a century," says Maleki. "We must make it clear that we cannot take any more of this. Enough is enough. No civilized society would put people in jail because of disagreement with the rulers."

Ahmadinejad is trying to cast himself in the role of a champion of Islam against the "infidel" by adopting a tough stance on the nuclear issue and preparing for a showdown with the G-8 next month. The challenge to his administration, however, may well be coming from Iran's factories, offices, universities, and religious seminaries.
A must read.