Is Iran Next?

Newsweek:

The rich and powerful gathered at the World Economic Forum this week named poverty as the world’s No. 1 problem. But many attendees seem more worried about Washington’s relations with Iran.

Once again, 2,000 of the world’s richest and “most powerful” people have descended on Davos, Switzerland, ... to brainstorm with one another about what values should infuse global governance. The most popular answers: honesty, transparency, compassion, fairness and tolerance of diversity. Then, by a show of digital hands, they voted on the top dozen issues that should command their attention over the coming year. By a two-thirds majority, poverty was the winner. Something called “equitable globalization” was ranked second, while global warming and climate change placed third. Peace in the Middle East came in fourth, garnering half the august body’s votes. “Managing the United States” was No. 10, with a mere 24 percent believing that America was the world’s biggest problem. ...

But this year brings a new concern: Iran. And once again, the question is: will the U.S. invade, and, if so, when? ...

Bush’s Inaugural Address may have inspired many Americans with its lofty rhetoric about liberty and freedom. But it alarmed the rest of the world. ...

70 percent of Germans think the United States will soon go to war with Iran, either by bombing or mounting a full-scale invasion.

James Hoge, editor of the New York-based journal Foreign Affairs, says the fears are absurd. “It’s not going to happen,” he says. And yet, an informal poll by NEWSWEEK at opening reception of the Davos conference suggests that much of the world isn’t so sure. When a Saudi pharmaceuticals executive agrees with Hoge, saying, “This administration is not crazy,” his German wife quickly chimes in. “Oh yes, it is,” she says, vehemently comparing Bush to Hitler. A British journalist lays odds on it: “They’ll bomb Iran within two years, 70 percent chance,” he says. His Argentine colleague offers a caveat: “It depends on Iraq,” he says. “Once that’s under control, Iran is next.” An editor of Davoser Zeitung says that “at least” half of all Swiss believe Bush will attack Iran. “America frightens me,” confesses a Latin American hedge-fund manager. He rates the prospect of war with Iran at better than 50-50. “Bush has defined his enemy,” he says. Out of 20 or so interviews, only a Swedish woman dismisses the possibility. “It would be suicide,” she says. “[Bush is] not crazy.”

Ironically, while Bush pursues his global war on terror, note this: when Davosians ranked their challenges for the coming year, terror wasn’t even on the list.

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