Bush to Focus on Nonproliferation

Kim Murphy, The Los Angeles Times:

This month, shortly after Ukraine's pro-Western president was sworn in, the nation's prosecutor-general launched an inquiry into reports that up to 20 nuclear-capable cruise missiles intended for transfer to Russia were instead sold to other countries, including Iran and China.

The complaint filed by Ukrainian legislator Hrihory Omelchenko claims that in 2000, Iran received six of the Kh-55 missiles, which have a range of 1,800 miles and are capable of carrying a 200-kiloton nuclear warhead at altitudes too low to be detected by radar.

Omelchenko alleges that a private Russian arms broker and officials in Ukraine's state-owned arms export agency and security services were behind the deal. The reports caused a storm in the Russian press, not least because the Russian Defense Ministry, in whose name the export licenses were reportedly signed, never publicly reported failure to take delivery of the 20 missiles.

In fact, Russia's government has denied any knowledge of the transaction, and there have been no allegations that it was involved in the deal. At least one analyst says he thinks initial reports of the deal are "full of holes."

But the continuing vulnerability of Russia and other former Soviet states to inadvertent loss of weapons and nuclear material is one of many reasons why nonproliferation will be near the top of the agenda when President Bush meets Russian President Vladimir V. Putin in Bratislava, Slovakia, on Thursday.

"We attach a high priority to a number of issues; perhaps the top of the list is the nonproliferation … agenda, both in terms of strengthening or establishing efforts to complete securing and dismantling of nuclear [materials], as well as strengthening our joint efforts to prevent weapons of mass destruction from getting into the hands of terrorists," a senior U.S. diplomat said in a pre-summit briefing last week. ...

Nonproliferation analysts in Moscow said it was likely Putin would travel to Iran shortly after his summit with Bush, possibly paving the way for contracts under which Russia would build additional nuclear power plants in Iran. ...

The issue of Russian nuclear aid to Iran is likely to be one of the thorniest summit issues, despite a growing U.S. conviction that Russia shares Washington's view that Iranian nuclear weapons ambitions must be contained. The difference, Russian analysts say, is in the approach.

"In the area of nonproliferation, we have serious controversies. The U.S. would insist on Russian support of the American hard line with respect to Iran, and potentially North Korea. Russia would insist on giving priority to diplomatic and economic instruments, not just threats of the use of force," said Alexei G. Arbatov, co-chair of Carnegie Moscow Center's nuclear nonproliferation program.

Russian officials believe the safeguards in place would delay any diversion of fuel from Iran's commercial nuclear applications to a military program for at least a year — plenty of time for United Nations intervention.

"It's an open secret that Russia has the same concerns about Iran that the U.S. has," said Anton Khlopkov, deputy director of the Center for Policy Studies in Russia, which focuses on nonproliferation issues. "And because Russia is closer to Iran than the U.S. is, Russia is trying to understand in detail what is going on in the nuclear field."

U.S. officials credit Russia with using its diplomatic channels to insist on controls.

"The Russians have done a fair amount of tough diplomacy on the bilateral level with the Iranians in support of the outcome we are trying to achieve," the senior U.S. diplomat said.

At the same time, the U.S. will be pushing for its own nonproliferation oversight in Russia, via the $1.6-billion Cooperative Threat Reduction program, under which Washington has provided assistance to Russia and other post-Soviet nations in dismantling and securing nuclear and chemical facilities to prevent them from getting into the hands of terrorists.

Kremlin hawks have been increasingly nervous about U.S. access to Russian military facilities under the program. On Sunday, hundreds of Orthodox Christians and Cossacks rallied in the center of Moscow in favor of Russia's continued sovereignty over its nuclear sites — an issue both the U.S. and Russia insist is not in jeopardy. ...

Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, citing Ukrainian military sources, said there were reports that new satellites Russia recently contracted to build for Iran could help produce digital maps for the Kh-55.

"This news made my hair stand on end," Felgenhauer said in an interview. "Now it doesn't sound like such an empty threat to me when I hear the president of Iran make a very aggressive statement promising to send 'the fire of hell' on the United States and Israel." ...