What to Do With Iran

Caroline B. Glick , Townhall.com:

Over the past week or so, the Bush administration has made repeated statements to the effect that it has no intention for now of taking any military action against Iranian nuclear sites, but rather wishes to concentrate on solving the issue through diplomacy. This, in spite of Israeli Mossad Chief Meir Dagan's statement last month that "by the end of 2005, the Iranians will reach the point of no return from the technological perspective of creating a uranium-enrichment capability."

Today, two diplomatic plans for contending with Iran are on the table. The first is the attempt by France, Germany and Britain to reach an agreement with Iran whereby, in exchange for nuclear fuel and economic cooperation and assistance, the Iranian government will abandon its nuclear program.

The second is the Bush administration's proposal to have the issue of Iran's nuclear weapons program transferred from the International Atomic Energy Agency to the UN Security Council, where the US wishes to raise the possibility of UN-backed sanctions against the mullocracy.

During her meetings with European leaders and the press in the course of her travels this week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sent out contradictory signals. On the one hand, she told Fox News Wednesday that the Iranians "need to hear that the discussions that they are in with the Europeans are not going to be a kind of way station where they are allowed to continue their activities, that there's going to be an end to this and that they are going to end up in the Security Council."

Yet later in the day, Rice clarified that the U.S. has "set no deadline, no timeline," for how long talks between the Europeans and the Iranians could continue before the matter was moved to the Security Council. ...

The Iranian government's reaction to the U.S. plan has been caustic. ...

Khatami also made a thinly veiled threat that Iran would vacate its signature to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if provoked, saying, "If we feel others are not meeting their promises, under no circumstances would we be committed to continue fulfilling ours. And we will adopt a new policy, the consequences of which are massive and would be the responsibility of those who broke their commitments."

In the meantime, on the ground, Security Council veto-wielding members are making it clear that far from supporting sanctions against Iran, they are warming their ties to Teheran. ...

In light of this, can it be concluded that America is dropping the ball on Iran just as it apparently dropped the ball on North Korea – taking a soft stand toward a regime that views softness as a sign of weakness, not as a diplomatic opportunity?

Perhaps.

Yet there are other noises. Two weeks ago, UPI published a report that the U.S. Air Force has been infiltrating Iranian airspace in an attempt to grid the country's air defense systems for use in future targeting. The report quotes U.S. government officials claiming that Israeli-trained Kurds are infiltrating Iran from northern Iraq for the purpose of mapping Iran's nuclear sites, while U.S.-trained Iranian exiles are infiltrating Iran from Basra and the Baluch province of Pakistan for the same purpose. ...

Ahmed Chalabi, the head of the Iraqi National Congress who was instrumental in forming the United Iraqi Alliance list which is the projected winner of last month's elections, is a likely candidate to become Iraq's next prime minister. In an interview with The New York Sun on Wednesday, Chalabi said that the Iraqi elections "will have an influence on the democratic movement in Iran."

Also on Wednesday, U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, R-PA, introduced the Iran Freedom and Support Act to the Senate. The act will commit America to "actively support a national referendum in Iran with oversight by international observers and monitors to certify the integrity and fairness of the referendum." According to the Sun report, the legislation will enable the president to finance democracy movements in Iran and to fund pro-democracy radio and television broadcasting there.

Santorum's bill, together with Bush's statement and the prospect of the ascension of a non-radical Shi'ite-dominated democratic government in Iraq, provide the greatest encouragement the Iranians have received to date to overthrow the clerical regime. ...