Stakes High for Iran Talks

Alissa J. Rubin and Sebastian Rotella, The Los Angeles Times:

Amid Iranian threats to break off negotiations and European warnings about "irreversible gestures" on Tehran's part, the stakes are high as the two sides prepare to meet over the Islamic Republic's nuclear ambitions. READ MORE

The outcome of the meeting, scheduled for midweek in Geneva, is crucial not just because of what it could portend for Iran's attainment of nuclear capability. If Iran leaves the negotiating table, the move could raise tensions throughout the Middle East and set the stage for a face-off between Tehran and the United States.

"The immediate concern is that if Iran carries out its threat, the U.S. will bomb them, and people in the region have had enough of wars between the United States and Muslim countries," said Gary Samore, a former advisor to the National Security Council and now director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

The last-ditch effort to persuade Iran to maintain its suspension of nuclear activities will be the first face-to-face contact between representatives since Iran threatened earlier this month to break off talks with Britain, France and Germany, breaching a deal reached in November.

Under the agreement, which is voluntary, Iran suspended all work on nuclear processing including uranium enrichment, which can lead to the production of nuclear arms, in exchange for economic, technological and political incentives from Europe.

French diplomats plan to send a message at the Geneva meeting that an Iranian move to restart activity related to uranium enrichment would scuttle the talks and could result in a response by the U.N. Security Council, a French diplomatic official said Friday.

"We will tell them that committing an irreversible gesture makes no sense. It is not in their interest politically, technically or economically. It will put them in the position of being an isolated country. That's not good for their security," said the official, who declined to be identified.

The political calculus and diplomatic maneuvering of both the Europeans and the Iranians is knotted, but the question that could be answered at the Geneva meeting is whether Iran will continue its moratorium on processing nuclear material and stay at the bargaining table — at least for the time being. Many experts believe that Iran will eventually restart its nuclear program, but delaying that day and putting in place strong verification measures to ensure the country is not making a bomb would be a reasonable outcome.

In an interview this week in Tehran, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator said that the question was not whether the Iranians would resume nuclear work, but when. Iran insists its nuclear efforts are for civilian purposes only.

"My country has a long-term plan to generate 20,000 megawatts of nuclear electricity," the negotiator, Hassan Rowhani, said. "We cannot wait longer to implement our plans…. We believe that what is needed is to see a decision made by the Europeans over how to carry out [their commitments]."

He added: "The decision has been made in my country to resume activities at the Isfahan facility. The time of resumption is in my hands." ...