Iran Talks Likely to Fail, Say EU Diplomats

Daniel Dombey, The Financial Times:

European diplomats are preparing for a breakdown of their negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme in a sign of mounting pessimism following the election last week of conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad. Although Britain, France and Germany still intend to keep their promise to put forward new compromise proposals to Iran by the beginning of August, some of the countries' diplomats now have little expectation that any deal will be accepted by Tehran.

The focus of efforts by the so-called "EU3" will be to win the ensuing "blame game" should the talks collapse. A priority will be to put forward proposals that go just far enough in meeting Tehran's concerns that they will allow Iran to be blamed if they are rejected. READ MORE

The proposals are likely to include guarantees of nuclear fuel supply for Iran (if the technical details can be worked out); offers of technical assistance similar to a 1990s agreement between the US and North Korea; and encouragement of contacts between Iran and neighbouring countries in an attempt to defuse Tehran's security concerns.

But similar ideas have not been acceptable to Tehran in the past. "It is not exactly as if these will be completely new proposals, but they will be much more detailed and global," said a French diplomat.

A difficult foreign ministers meeting in Geneva last month cast light on the gulf between the two parties. Iran insists its nuclear programme is wholly peaceful, while the EU3 say Iran's record of concealment means it should suspend activities related to uranium enrichment, which can create weapons-grade material.

The three European countries say their attempt to solve the issue through negotiation has kept the international community unified while putting a hold on the Iranian programme, since Tehran agreed to freeze enrichment activity in an agreement last year in Paris.

But some diplomats concede the freeze may help Iran mollify its critics, while international unity is looking tenuous. China is strengthening its ties with Tehran, while the US has stepped up its rhetoric against the Islamic republic.

EU officials say they are aware that Mr Ahmadi-Nejad will not have a decisive role to play in formulating nuclear policy, but are nonetheless pessimistic on how his victory will influence Washington's attitude towards the talks. Some believe it will reduce US support for negotiations, and several say Washington's support for negotiations has already noticeably declined.

"It may now be more difficult for the Europeans to convince the Americans to go further in helping out," said one EU official.

If the Iranians reject the EU3 proposals and resume their programme, breaking the Paris agreement, the EU will push for a series of resolutions at the International Energy Agency, United Nations nuclear watchdog, and ultimately the UN Security Council itself, officials said.

At first, such resolutions would call on Iran to freeze activity once again, while ultimately they would try to give the Paris agreement - and the suspension of uranium enrichment - the force of international law. "The first step will have to be the IAEA," said another European diplomat. "The basis for initial discussion in both the IAEA board and also the UN Security Council, if it gets there, will inevitably be the Paris agreement."

It is far from certain that the EU3 would win a consensus on the 35-member IAEA board, which includes such countries as China, Russia and Venezuela. Some European officials also believe Iran would try to escape censure by resuming its nuclear programme in a piecemeal fashion at first.

One fear is that such a diplomatic impasse could encourage hawks in the US or Israel to argue for airstrikes against Iran - an outcome the EU3 desperately want to avoid.