Transatlantic Divide Deep, Not So Wide, Poll Finds

Sebastian Rotella, Los Angeles Times:

Europeans and Americans have often starkly different views of each other and the world, but agree on some major issues such as promoting democracy and avoiding war with Iran, according to a survey being released today.

As Western leaders try to mend rifts exacerbated since 2003 by the Iraq war, the fourth annual study of European and U.S. public opinion by the German Marshall Fund depicts a complex, wary transatlantic relationship. But the report, an advanced copy of which was given to The Times, also contradicts stereotypes and common wisdom.

Although a majority of Europeans remain hostile to American global dominance and President Bush in particular, they are enthusiastic about the centerpiece of Bush's foreign policy: promoting democracy around the world.

Despite three major terrorist attacks in Europe during the last two years and increased debate about the difficulties of integrating a large Muslim population, Europeans fear terrorism, Islamic extremism and immigration less than Americans do, according to the survey.

And Americans agree with Europeans that the European Union, an economic giant but a military dwarf, should evolve into a global superpower even if that means Europe asserts increasing independence.

The findings reflect the fact that the U.S. and Europe work well together in many places other than Iraq, said John K. Glenn of the German Marshall Fund, a U.S.-European think tank that studies and promotes transatlantic relations.

"The rift over Iraq has taken longer to heal than expected, but things haven't gotten worse," said Glenn, the fund's director of foreign policy, who is based in Washington. "There are very real differences in the way that Americans and Europeans view the world…. You have to separate out the trauma of Iraq, which has been more enduring, more searing if you will, for Europeans than Americans might have expected. The data shows enough common ground that I don't think we are at the beginning of a civilizational split."

The report compiles polling data from the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain and Turkey, which straddles the Asian and European continents and aspires to join the EU. Pollsters questioned about 1,000 men and women in each country and identified a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The questions were designed to take the "temperature" of the transatlantic relationship. If Europe and the U.S. were a married couple, the findings suggest that divorce is not imminent, but aggressive counseling would be a good idea.

Europeans have "moderately warm" feelings toward Americans overall, the survey found. Britons and Italians are the most positive, Spaniards and Turks the most anti-American.

In contrast, the survey found, "Americans give their European allies more positive evaluations." The surge of anti-French feeling after Paris' leadership in opposing the Iraq invasion has apparently abated. American warmth toward France increased for the second year in a row, going from 45 to 53 on a scale of 1 to 100. Because European politics tend to be further to the left than those in the U.S., ideological antipathy to the Bush administration shapes European attitudes.

But Europeans agree with the president's drive for democracy in the Middle East and elsewhere, the centerpiece of his foreign policy in his second term, the survey found.

About 74% of European respondents, compared with 51% of Americans, want their governments to help establish democracy in other countries. The breakdown in responses among Americans was 76% among Republican voters and 43% of Democrats, probably because the latter associate the "democracy promotion" phrase with Bush, Glenn said.

That means European views on the matter resemble those of the GOP, contradicting at least on this issue the image of Democrats as being ideologically closer to Europe.

Both Americans and Europeans favor "soft" tactics such as election monitoring over use of force to spread democracy, the poll found.

"There are unexpected areas where Europeans and Americans can work together if we separate military intervention as an exceptional case from overall policies," Glenn said.

In fact, the Bush administration teams with France and other European allies in hot spots such as Ukraine, where they collaborated in helping reformists take power; Lebanon, where they joined to pressure Syrian forces to leave; and Afghanistan, where European troops play a front-line role.

The public on both continents backs the EU diplomatic approach to the dispute with Iran over Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Only 5% of Europeans and 15% of Americans support a military solution. READ MORE

And slim majorities want human rights reforms in China as a condition for increased trade with Beijing.

Nonetheless, the transatlantic divide widens when it comes to global threats. Americans consistently see the world as a more dangerous place.

"Americans feel significantly more likely to be personally affected by terrorism (71% vs. 53% of Europeans), by the spread of nuclear weapons (67% vs. 55%) and by Islamic fundamentalism (50% vs. 40%)," the report says. At the same time, Europeans worry more than Americans (73% to 64%) about global warming, the survey found.

A key factor for the divergence is the resounding effect on the American psyche of the Sept. 11 attacks, Glenn said.

I believe the Bush administration has known the EU attitudes for some time know and this poll confirms my belief that the Bush administration is preparing an international campaign to support an internal regime change in Iran.