Who is Next: Iran or Syria?

Hamid Ahadi, Rooz Online:

Following the UN Security Council resolution prompted by the remarks president Ahmadinejad made about Israel last week, another bad news arrived at Tehran’s officialdom two days ago when the UN Security Council also requested in a resolution that Syria cooperate fully with the UN investigation into the former Prime Minister Hariri’s murder earlier this year.

What partly diffused the intensity of the resolution was the quick response that came from Damascus to the effect that the government accepted to prosecute those involved in the murder of Hariri. The impact of this on Tehran was that the Foreign Ministry immediately “corrected” the remarks of Ahmadinejad regarding Israel and also announced Iran’s readiness to continue its talks with the Europeans on the nuclear issue.

With the heavy clouds that were forming over Syria and Iran, Tehran was under the impression that the UN Security Council would actually impose sanctions against Syria, with a possible military threat against its non-compliance over the Hariri investigation.

Tehran’s initial response to the pressures on Syria, which has been Iran’s only ally, especially during the first decade of its republic founding, was to extend cooperation and consultations to it. Political observers have interpreted these two events to be part of a larger strategy of replacing regimes in a belt that surrounds China and extends to Israel with more moderate and favorable regimes. Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Syria are part of this belt.

According to this view, the US and its allies who continue to have domestic public opinion problems in starting another war, found just the right excuse this time: Hariri’s murder. The goal in this case is to break the alliance and cooperation that exists between Iran and Syria so as to neutralize their military potential in case of a new military conflict. It is with this in mind that Syria’s president Bashar Assad made two trips to Tehran, one as president Khatami was handing over his administration to the hardliners, the second when the hardline president Ahmadinejad was already in the presidential palace feeling his way around. And just as international media expected to hear about a military alliance between the two countries on Assad’s return to Damascus, the government of Syria announced that there were no plans for a military alliance with Iran.

Both countries are under strong international pressure, and Iran seems to be more so. Iran’s moderate response to the IAEA resolution and the fact that Iran never broke its ties with the IAEA and the European negotiators, seem to have softened the attacks and threats of the West. Then came the special UN investigator’s report against Syrian officials. The report stated that there was evidence that Syrian officials had a hand in the explosions that killed Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Hariri. The UN Security Council issued a resolution requesting that Syria bring those responsible in the crime to justice. The resolution also provides a warning to Syria that should its cooperation wane, the Council would initiate economic sanctions against it.

With Ahmadinejad’s remarks on Israel, the international press jumped on the occasion. “Mental Hospital” is what the editorial of the British daily Guardian called Iran.

So with Syria and Iran now on the agenda of the UN and other major powers, the key question that is on the minds here is which one is next. READ MORE

Some say Iran because it has lost the hand of the Europeans and the recent remarks by the president have added more fuel to the fire against it. Others point to the more moderate statements that have been coming from the mouths of Iranian spokesmen and say the pressure on Iran is now secondary compared to what Syria is expecting. The international press has covered the “corrections” suggested by Iranian officials over Ahmadinejad’s remarks, while also asserting that Syria’s Bashar Assad has requested to relinquish power and live in the UK provided his name is does not appear in the final report on the murder of Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Hariri.