Is there method behind Iran's anti-Israel remarks?

Paul Hughes, Reuters:

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's strident anti-Israel rhetoric may be part of a strategy aimed at boosting his own standing at home and Iran's role in the region. His remarks calling the Holocaust a myth and suggesting Israeli Jews be moved to Germany or Alaska have brought worldwide condemnation and imperilled diplomatic negotiations with Europe over Iran's nuclear programme.

But while some analysts put his remarks down to excessive zeal, inexperience and an inability to distinguish between domestic and international audiences, others say his repeated verbal attacks were clearly planned.

"These comments are not being made by accident," said Tehran-based political analyst Mahmoud Alinejad. "This is something he has deliberated and thought out." READ MORE

Elected in June with support from millions of Iran's devout lower classes, Ahmadinejad soon found his influence undermined by Iran's complex political structure and factional rivalries.

Soon after he took office in August Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei granted extensive supervisory powers over the government to an unelected council headed by Ahmadinejad's chief political rival, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Subsequently Ahmadinejad, whose 18 months as mayor of Tehran served as a launchpad to the presidency, ran into stiff opposition from fellow conservatives in parliament over his nominees for the key post of oil minister.

Lawmakers said Ahmadinejad's picks lacked experience, finally obliging him to select an oil ministry veteran.

HARD TO CONTRADICT IN IRAN

By speaking out against Israel, however, Ahmadinejad has carved out a policy niche that appeals to his core supporters and cannot be easily contradicted by his opponents.

"He is pursuing it (the anti-Israel line) because he doesn't really have any choice internally. Otherwise he will be sidelined," said Alinejad. "It's very hard, even for people like Rafsanjani, to adopt a more moderate stance."

Strategically speaking, Ahmadinejad's anti-Israel tirades appear to follow a doctrine shared by many in Iran's security apparatus that in the face of mounting pressure from the West, attack is the best form of defence.

Iran's growing influence in Iraq, likely to be confirmed by Thursday's parliamentary elections, and its support for Palestinian militant groups are a source of strength for Tehran.

"There is a general agreement in the system that Iran can make trouble for the West in Iraq and Palestine and that by doing so it will force the Americans to take it seriously and give it a security role in the region," said Alinejad.

This impression runs particularly deep in the Revolutionary Guards, for which Ahmadinejad served throughout the 1980s when Iran's involvement in Lebanon contributed to the withdrawal of U.S. troops.

More recently, Iran will have drawn comfort from the fact that, just when accusations linking it to bomb attacks in southern Iraq were peaking, Washington's chief envoy to Baghdad said he wanted talks with Tehran about Iraq security.

Similarly, EU threats to send Iran to the U.N. Security Council after it resumed processing uranium in August failed to materialise and instead, Europe sought to re-start its stalled negotiations with Tehran.

LEADERSHIP ROLE

Speaking out against Israel appeals to those who feel Shi'ite Muslim Iran's leadership role in the Islamic world, undisputed at the time of the 1979 Islamic revolution, has been overshadowed by the rise of Sunni fundamentalism.

"Iran aspires to be the leader of the Islamic world," said a political analyst in Tehran, who declined to be named.

Speaking in southeastern Iran on Thursday Ahmadinejad said: "Today, the only messenger of true Islam and complete Islam is the Iranian nation," the official IRNA news agency reported.

Iran has been alarmed by creeping recognition for Israel, such as by Pakistan, following its Gaza withdrawal. If that trend continued Iran would face almost complete isolation.

"By saying what he said Ahmadinejad is putting Arab leaders into a corner and appealing to the masses who feel their leaders are too accommodating to the West," he added.

What is not clear is how much high-level support Ahmadinejad enjoys for his outspoken views.

The closing statement of an Islamic summit in Saudi Arabia, where he first questioned the Holocaust, took a far more moderate position on the Israel-Palestine issue.

At home, the largest pro-reform party the Participation Front, described his comments as "provocative" and said they would help neither Iran nor Palestinians.

Other senior officials, while reiterating their support for Palestinians, have stressed Iran's policy has not changed.

"It's very unclear if the Supreme Leader has given him the green light to say such things," said the political analyst. "If not, he could be in big trouble, particularly if it causes the nuclear issue to escalate."