New Phase for Nuclear Crisis

Omid Memarian, Rooz Online:

The plan that the Russians had discussed with the Americans and the Europeans for months was finally presented to Tehran after the talks between Iran and the European trio (Britain, France and Germany) ended without any breakthroughs or even serious talks last week. Iranian observers who follow the talks say that the failure of this phase that in reality adds the Russians to the American-European team would certainly guarantee the IAEA referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for sanctions and blockade.

The formal Russian proposal to move the locale of uranium enrichment from Iran to Russia caught Iranian officials by surprise. Asefi, the Foreign Ministry spokesman openly said that the proposal meets the interests of Europe and the US, rather than Iran. READ MORE

It is believed that Iran’s negotiations team has read the Russian plan. But since it contradicts every prediction that Iranians had regarding the position of Russia on the nuclear issue, and the fact that the acceptance of the plan would mean enriching uranium in Russia rather than in Iran, Iranian officials have decided to move more cautiously before a meeting of the UN Security Council.

The Russian proposal takes place at a time when the Russians have the largest role in Iran’s nuclear program. Just last week Iran expanded its relations with the Russians by announcing the conclusion of a billion Dollar arms agreement, signaling Russian support for Iran to public opinion. But since the Russians announced their proposal to enrich uranium in Russian for Iran’s needs, the prospects of such Russian support in Iran’s quest to domestically have the complete nuclear fuel cycle seem dim.

At Sunday’s press conference, in response to a question whether the country’s policy of “tilting to the East” had ended, the Foreign Ministry spokesman dodged the question by trying to redefine the meaning of East and West in the political lexicon. “The meaning of East and West has changed and we no longer mean the geographic cleavage, but the customary meaning” Asefi said. “Each is now a group of countries.” With this redefinition, Asefi is the first official to confirm the failure - and possibly end - of the tilt to the East policy.

In the past, there were those who had warned that Russia is not a reliable partner for Iran’s nuclear aspirations because it has larger strategic interests with Europe and the US which it would not jeopardize. They feared that by relying on Russia, Iran would lose its control over the talks.

Since Russia has been trying to remain a neutral player on the issue and in all the phases of the talks, even when there was talk of refereeing Iran to the UN Security Council, has refrained from expressly taking sides on the issue, it is expected that Iranian officials will have a hard time in responding to the Russian proposal in the coming days. Should Iran reject the proposal of Russian which is internationally viewed as a supporter of Iran, and insist on enriching uranium in Iran, Russia may move even closer to the US and Europe in their drive to refer the case to the UN Security Council. Even a Russian abstention at the Council would provide the West what it has been after. In view of India’s dual and unreliable role, the only country that Iran currently relies on if the nuclear dossier is referred to the Security Council is China. China has been growingly tying its economy to its foreign policy and has been offered ever larger contracts.

The ultra-conservative Kayhan, viewed as the spokesmedia for the hardliners, which until recently advocated a firmer stand on the nuclear stand off and encouraged officials to even leave the NPT, had the following headline on Sunday: “Iran rejects the Russian proposal”, voicing the views of at least some of the hardliners. It should be noted that Foreign Ministry spokesman Asefi did not mention any rejection of the Russian proposal, while the issue is expected to be discussed at the next Supreme National Security Council this week. Asefi called president Ahmadinejad’s proposal at the UN General Assembly in September 2005 as the best solution to the concerns of the West, which was to invite them to participate in a consortium to enrich uranium in Iran.

Senior officials inside the Iranian government have instructed the nuclear negotiation team not to haste in their response to the Russian proposal. Members of the Majlis (Parliament) however openly displayed their anger at the Russian plan. Borujerdi, the chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy committee did not deny receiving the proposal so as to avoid confirming the dilemma confronting the decision makers. Borujerdi explained his surprise in these terms: “In view of Russian participation in the nuclear project, the idea of doing it outside Iran is not called for and is unnecessary.” He explained the Russian proposal to be an effort for them to play a role in Iran’s nuclear dossier, adding that the terms of the proposal could be changed later. “One cannot comment on the details of the proposal at this point,” he said. “The proposal shall be reviewed and a decision made at the Supreme National Security Council.” “The Islamic Republic insists on carrying out the enrichment activities in Iran, and if the Russian have a different idea, then this should be discussed with them and efforts be made to convince them. The Russians should be satisfied that we insist on carrying out this phase in Iran”, he said.

Observers point out that the Russian proposal was drawn up with consultations with the Europeans and the US and therefore enjoys their approval. So it is their common position and it is the minimum on what they expect and have been diplomatically pressuring Iran to accept.

In view of the close relations that the Iranian government believes it has with the Russians, it was surprised to hear of the proposal in the press rather than directly from Russia. Such a step is usually taken in international relations to increase the pressure on the recipient state to accept the plan, and thus increase the cost of rejecting it. This confirms the view that the Russians too would like Iran to suspend its enrichment activities and at the same time put Iran on the spot in the eyes of the international community should it choose to reject it. Borujerdi adds, “Russians want to present a plan that is internationally acceptable and at the same time preempt it from being rejected. So presenting it semi officially (through the media) is not unprecedented.”

Russia’s joining the European-US position weakens Iran’s position in the talks and diplomatically.

Other Majlis deputies do not share Borujerdi’s views. Abdolreza Servati from Bojnourd says the Russian proposal is nothing but the imposition of the views of a superpower on Iran, calling it’s acceptance a violation of the independence and sovereignty of Iran. He repeated president Ahmadinejad’s UN proposal that other states could participate in the enrichment process in Iran. “Governments have in the past refrained from carrying out their duties. The Russian government has been postponing providing the fuel to the Bushehr nuclear power plant for the past four years now,” he said. “Iran’s rights have been negated in this proposal. These countries cannot be trusted and there is no cause for moving the enrichment phase to other countries.”

Hamid Reza Taraghi from the Jamiate Motalefe party (Islamic Coalition party) believes that Russia’s presentation of the plan through the media prior to diplomatic communication to Iran was to test Iran’s position in the eyes of the international community, and see how serious Iran is in its position.

Iranian observers and analysts believe that the Russian proposal is in fact the last window before referring Iran to the UN Security Council. It becomes now clear that the high level visits by Americans to Moscow during the recent months and also the arrangements between the Europeans and the US on the details of the negotiations between Iran and Europe in the final count put the winning cards in their hands.

With the latest proposal in the minds of the international community, and president Ahmadinejad’s international positions which have already tarred Iran’s image and reliability, making its policies and nuclear plans suspect, Iran’s rejection of the proposal will only bring more tension to the issue.

And finally there are those who are proposing that Iran take the middle road and propose that Russians oversee the complete nuclear cycle activities in Iran, thus providing the confidence that the Europeans and Americans are looking for to ensure its nuclear activities remain within the peaceful domain.