With Time Short on Iran Nukes, AIPAC Criticizes Bush Approach

Ron Kampeas, JTA News:

As time dwindles for diplomatic efforts to curtail Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons, the pro-Israel lobby in Washington is criticizing the Bush administration’s handling of the issue. The United States has endorsed a European Union plan that would allow Iran to continue its nuclear development as long as it leaves the final stages of uranium enrichment to Russia. READ MORE

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the hope is that such a deal would keep Iran from bringing its uranium to weapon-grade level.

“We’re prepared to see if the Russians can explore something that may bring the Iranians around to the recognition that they cannot enrich and reprocess on their territory, that they have a credibility problem with the international community as to the fuel cycle,” Rice told USA Today last week. “We’ll see whether it works.”

Within days of Rice’s interview, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee delivered a rare public criticism of the Bush administration.

“Last week’s decision allowed Iran to win a critical round in its game of cat-and-mouse with the international community,” AIPAC said in an email earlier this week headlined “IMPORTANT — AIPAC press statement critical of Administration’s recent decisions on Iran policy.”

AIPAC and Israel had hoped that the United States would nudge the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, into referring Iran to the U.N. Security Council last week for sanctions. The IAEA board met last week in Vienna and deferred a decision on whether to refer Iran to the Security Council while Britain, Germany and France — the “E.U. 3” — try to negotiate with Iran.

The negotiations are to begin within two weeks, and no one expects the IAEA to consider the matter again until at least February.

But that could be too late, according to an assessment by Maj.-Gen. Aharon Zeevi-Farkash, Israel’s military intelligence chief.

“If, by the end of March,” the IAEA board “does not succeed in transferring the issue to the Security Council, it will be possible to say that the diplomatic effort has failed,” Zeevi-Farkash reportedly told the Knesset’s Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee this week.

In a deal brokered last year by the E.U. 3, Iran agreed to shut down its nuclear fuel-cycle activities. That ended this summer after critical E.U. and IAEA reports suggested that Iran was not allowing inspectors full access, and uncovered earlier deceptions by Iran.

Iran defiantly resumed its nuclear fuel cycle; moreover, its new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is a radical who has ratcheted up anti-Israel rhetoric, publicly calling for Israel’s destruction.

AIPAC and Israel are concerned that allowing Iran any fuel-enrichment capability would bring it dangerously close to weaponization if the E.U.-Russia deal falls through.

“The Russian proposal allowing Iran to possess a key step in the nuclear fuel cycle is a dangerous concession made at a time of continued Iranian intransigence,” AIPAC said in a memo accompanying its statement.

Senior Israeli officials brought the matter up in a strategic dialogue session this week with their U.S. counterparts.

The Americans, headed by Nicholas Burns, an undersecretary of state, said they agreed that Iran ultimately should face sanctions, but didn’t want to bring the matter to the Security Council until they were certain that Russia and China would not veto sanctions.

There likely would be a majority on the Security Council for sanctions, but Russia and China — who are wary of nuclear oversight because of their own nuclear programs — have indicated they would exercise their veto right.

The U.S. believes that bringing Russia into the mix would give it a motive to back sanctions eventually. Israel and AIPAC worry that could take too long, and they favor going to the Security Council now, if only to show Iran how serious they are.

Moreover, the United States believes that a warning statement from the Security Council — rather than full sanctions — likely would not be vetoed now. Getting Russia and China on board with such a warning now would make it harder for them to veto sanctions later if Iran continues to defy warnings, the thinking goes.

Another option is to operate outside the U.N. framework. Europeans have suggested they would consider sanctions if the United States presses hard; Iran does a great deal of business with Europe, and such sanctions could have some bite.

Another factor informing resistance to the E.U.-Russian formula is that advocates of sanctions do not regard Russia as entirely trustworthy when it comes to Iran. Russia has an array of defense and nuclear investments in the Islamic republic, and Russian media reported Friday that Russia and Iran have just signed a $1 billion missile deal.

AIPAC prides itself on its close working relationship with the Bush administration, and officials at the pro-Israel group suggested they would not have issued such public criticism if they didn’t consider the matter urgent. Iran has been a top AIPAC priority for more than a decade, and the organization believes the Islamic republic poses a grave danger to Israel.

If it comes down to a political battle, signs are that AIPAC could muster strong support in Congress to press the White House to demand sanctions on Iran.

Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), chairwoman of the U.S. House of Representatives’ Middle East subcommittee, signaled outspoken opposition to the E.U.-Russia deal weeks ago.

“It is baffling that the Europeans still seek to appease and arm the terrorist regime in Teheran,” she said in a Nov. 10 statement. “To add insult to injury, they want to entrust Russia, a nation with an already dubious record regarding Iran’s nuclear and missile proliferation, to process Iran’s uranium.”

Ros-Lehtinen noted that her own Iran sanctions bill has the support of three quarters of her House colleagues, though she’s trying to line up additional co-sponsors.

“By allowing Iran nuclear capabilities, the Europeans are giving the match to the pyromaniac,” she said.