Another Jolt for the Nuclear Talks

Omid Memarian, Rooz Online:

Following the cooling of relations between Tehran and Moscow, Iran’s announcement of the resumption of its nuclear research activities brought about a strong response from European countries. This is the second resumption of activities since the Isfahan nuclear facility began its work. Iran argues that since its suspensions were voluntary, it reserves the right to end those voluntary suspensions any time it wishes. The international community views these differently.

Two nights ago, the deputy director of Iran’s nuclear agency announced that Iran had informed the IAEA that it planned to restart its nuclear research work on January 9th, 2005. To add spice to that, Ali Larijani, Iran’s chief negotiator at the Iran-European nuclear talks said Europeans should not believe that they can checkmate Iran in this game.

The US responded by criticizing Iran’s decision and issued a warning that it would seek international action against Iran if it resumed such work, implying referral to the UN Security Conucil at the minimum. Toronto Star editorialized that Tehran’s tone is indicative that the Iran-European talks are coming to their end.

Iran’s latest salvo comes at a time when it is engaged in talks with the Russians about their latest proposal to enrich uranium on Russian soil as opposed to Iran, while the Iran-EU talks are waiting for the results of the current talks. Larijani played down the Russian proposal and said it was deficient, and again directed attention to what he called the Ahmadinejad plan that had been proposed at the UN General Assembly meeting last year in which Iran had invited international companies to participate in Iran’s nuclear development projects in Iran. That plan was coolly received by the international community.

Observers have interpreted Iran’s recent decision to indicate its determination to go ahead with its plans, with or without Russia. And while nothing in the NPT bars Iran from pursing nuclear research activities, Iran’s decision at this time is adding fuel to the already distrustful atmosphere regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Britain, Germany and France, who are Iran’s negotiating parties have called the decision “unconstructive”, while the IAEA chief said he has distributed Iran’s letter of intent to the 35 member body. El-Baredei had publicly said in the past that any new activities by Iran would be counter productive and should not be undertaken.

Another event that makes the Iranian decision more important is the tone and new look that Russia has adopted. A Russian official from the Duma recently said that if Iran stepped outside the boundaries of the NPT, Russia would support the international community in its measures against Iran. He also said Iran’s desire to fully enrich uranium itself and the recent words of president Ahmadinejad about Israel should be taken as a warning. These words of the Russian official are important because of the swift changes that have been rocking Iran-Russian relations in recent weeks. When the Majlis (Iran’s Parliament) speaker’s speech at the Russian Duma was cancelled and a meeting with Putin was put off because of Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric against Israel, conservatives in Iran called policy makers to distance themselves from Russia and review their nuclear policy strategy vis-à-vis the northern neighbor. Then came the announcement of a large weapon’s contract between Iran and Russia, bringing back hopes that the Russians would support Iran in its nuclear drive. But the recent statements are reminiscent of what happened with India late last year, which despite Iran’s large business deals, ended in India’s non-support for Iran at the IAEA meeting which found Iran at fault and warned of possible UN Security Council referral. China, the other country towards whom there have been calls in Iran to strengthen ties for support on the nuclear issue, has shown in the past that it would not jeopardize its sensitive relations with the US over Iran.

In the words of Ezatollah Ezati, an Iranian foreign policy specialist, neither China nor Russia would use their influence to support Iran in its nuclear program, which he said at the second Geopolitics Congress in Iran. According to him, China has declared that it does not wish to be a world power, and is happy to be a regional one. And being a neighbor of Russia, it wishes to compete with it in different ways and prevent Russia from expanding its regional influence. READ MORE

So with less faith in Russian support and China’s passivity, it seems that Iran will have to decide in the forthcoming days whether to continue its strategic cooperation with Russia or come up with a new plan - as Larijani claims to have – to break the current impasse.

Is the resumption of nuclear research activities one of those plans?