Countdown in Tehran

Arash Motamed, Rooz Online:

The official Europe and American tone and that of their media has harshly turned against the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) and analysts believe this mutual posture against Iran was unprecedented even in Iraq's case before its occupation.

Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran's veteran and highly influential politician last week cut short his trip to Mashad and returned to the capital to attend “an extremely important meeting”. During last week he repeatedly warned of an imminent threat against the country and called for unity among all groups.

In his last minute change of plan, Ahmadinejad postponed his visit to Khoozestan province to attend an emergency meeting in Tehran. A leading cleric says the Islamic republic is today in its most difficult period since the revolution of 27 years ago, while radical and fundamentalist revolutionary forces continue to call a possible US attack against Iran as ineffective. Keyhan's ultra-hardline daily for example, warns of an imminent threat from the enemy. READ MORE

Recent global developments against the Islamic republic of Iran have picked up such a pace that political analysts see it as a countdown to a crisis for Iran. The dilemma that started in the early days of 2006 turned into a critical phase when the world's major five powers rejected Iran's request for a resumption of negotiations over its nuclear policy. Along with their radical Iranian counterparts, US neo-conservatives have positioned themselves in newer commanding centers and the world is gradually but collectively channeling Iran's nuclear file to United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

The Bush administration is confident that leading western countries and their media are among its allies. The prominent right-wing conservative French media have launched extremely harsh attacks against the Islamic Republic and Ahmadinejad. Britain's Tony Blair criticized Ahmadinejad's suggestion to hold a Holocaust conference as shocking, silly and stupid. He defended French PM's comment on using nuclear bombs against any terrorist state and agreed with French President Chirac's evaluation of the dangers that threaten the world. The German Foreign Minister also has stressed that the world has run out of patience with Iran. And Bloomberg News service says Iran and its nuclear programs are more dangerous than Iraq was three years ago.

The overall news and information that is going around indicates that the IAEA board of governor's emergency meeting on February will end in referring Iran's nuclear file to the UN Security Council.

Political analyst, Abbas Abdi rejects military confrontation before Iran's nuclear file is referred to the Security Council, while Rooznet website concludes that the U.S. or Israel military confrontation with Iran will probably take place in March 2006 on the eve of the third anniversary of the US invasion of Iraq.

Unlike Israel which is using Ahmadinejad's hateful comments against itself, the U.S. is tightening the leash on Iran while claiming to be still in the diplomatic zone.

There are of course those who have expressed their concerns about the outcome of all of this, in support of Iran too. One example is Fidel Castro of Cuba.

In the meantime and with the pressure around it mounting, Tehran is reviewing its options in using its two available cards with the West: China and Russia. This one is played by Iran's national security chief who is also looking at its neighbors and regional allies in case of a military attack. Ahmadinejad seems to be looking beyond the neighbors and his recent visit to Syria and meetings with Lebanese Hezbollah indicates his decision to form a stronger fundamentalist's alliance in the Middle East.

It seems that Tehran's fundamentalist government quickly turned into a war machine and warring attitude in less than six months of coming to power, appearing to take on the whole world by itself. Time will tell of the meaning of all this and its consequences.